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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Date of first BF case in North America?

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Poll Question: When will BF be confirmed (in birds) on the North American continent?
Vote Poll Choice Votes Poll Statistics
7 [43.75%]
3 [18.75%]
4 [25.00%]
2 [12.50%]
0 [0.00%]
0 [0.00%]
0 [0.00%]

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CupcakeMom View Drop Down
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Joined: January 20 2006
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    Posted: February 26 2006 at 6:36am

To friends outside of North America, sorry for the North American-centric nature of this poll.  First, a prediction from an expert (Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, is the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of "The Coming Plague."):

"By June or July, if the biological imperatives continue to follow their course, H5N1 should turn up in eastern Siberia, and then Alaska, via the East Asia flyway. It might also at that time jump from Iceland, via Greenland, to northern Canada. Once in the Arctic zones of the Americas, H5N1 will be able to follow any, or all, of the four primary north/south flyways that span the Americas, from the Arctic to Tierra del Fuego. It is in the realm of reasonable probability that H5N1 will reach the United States this summer or early autumn. "

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     This seems logical to me.  I predict first confirmed case of bird flu in birds on the North American continent, by July 31.  I think this is a safe bet.  What is your opinion about this?
 

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2006 at 6:51am

first confirmed case..or first hidden case..first false positive..ok i,ll say April 4 2006, but then I am in Canadier aye..so will take that bit of extra time to get here..unless it hits Alaska first with migratory birds that come back in March then my guess would be March 21st 2006

We should start a bird flu pool and winner gets a box of rice

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