CDC: Swine flu has sickened 22 million in 6 months

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WASHINGTON -Swine flu has 
sickened about 22 million Americans since April and killed nearly 4,000, 
including 540 children, say startling federal estimates released Thursday.
The figures — a quadrupling of 
previous death estimates — don't mean swine flu suddenly has worsened, and most 
cases still don't require a doctor's care. Instead, the numbers are a 
long-awaited better attempt to quantify the new flu's true toll.

"I am expecting all of these 
numbers, unfortunately, to continue to rise," said Dr. Anne Schu****** of the 
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "We have a long flu season ahead of 
us."

And tight supplies of vaccine 
to combat the illness continue: Not quite 42 million doses are currently 
available, a few million less than CDC had predicted last week.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll 
shows nearly one in six parents has gotten at least some of their children 
vaccinated against swine flu since inoculations began last month. Another 14 
percent of parents sought vaccine, but couldn't find any.

Only about 30 percent of 
children routinely get flu vaccinations during a normal winter. That even this 
many have gotten vaccinated against the new flu that scientists call the 2009 
H1N1 strain despite the shortage suggests CDC's target-the-young message has 
gotten through.

But three times as many adults 
have tried and failed to find vaccine for themselves as have succeeded.

"I know they're trying their 
hardest," Joy McGavin of Pittston, Pa., said of the CDC's vaccine efforts. She 
hasn't yet found vaccine for her three children despite a persistent hunt — even 
though she and her youngest child are at extra risk because of chronic 
illnesses.
"But it is kind of frustrating, 
being as my children's school already shut down" because of a big outbreak, 
McGavin said.

And interest among the young 
adults who also are at high risk is waning fast, found the AP-GfK poll of 1,006 
adults nationwide.

Thursday, Schu****** again urged 
patience in seeking vaccine.

"It's a marathon and not a 
sprint," she said. "More vaccine is being ordered and delivered and used every 
day."

Until now, the CDC has 
conservatively estimated more than 1,000 deaths and "many millions" of new H1N1 
infections. The agency was devoting more time to battling the pandemic than to 
counting it, and earlier figures were based on laboratory-confirmed cases even 
as doctors largely quit using flu tests months ago — and experts knew that 
deaths from things like the bacterial pneumonia that often follows flu were 
being missed.

Thursday's report attempts to 
calculate the first six months of the new H1N1 strain's spread, from April 
through mid-October. The CDC said:
_Some 98,000 people have been 
hospitalized from this new flu or its complications, including 36,000 children, 
53,000 adults younger than 65 and 9,000 older adults.
_Deaths could range from a low 
of 2,500 to as many as 6,100, depending on how the data's analyzed.
_Some 8 million children have 
become ill, 12 million adults younger than 65 and 2 million older adults.

The estimate of child deaths 
may seem especially surprising, considering the CDC's conservative count of 
lab-confirmed deaths a week ago was 129.

"We don't think things have 
changed from last week to this week," Schu****** stressed, explaining the 
importance of looking beyond those lab counts. It's "a better estimate for the 
big picture of what's out there."

The question now is what 
effect those estimates will have on a public that largely views swine flu as not 
that big a threat.

The AP-GfK poll, conducted 
last weekend, found just 23 percent of responders — and 27 percent of parents — 
were very likely to keep seeking vaccine.

Stephanie Hannon of Douglas, 
Mass., decided to get a swine flu vaccine for just one of her three children, 
the one at extra risk because of asthma. She's concerned that the swine flu 
vaccine hasn't been studied long enough to justify for her less-at-risk 
youngsters.
"Only because of my other 
daughter's condition, I felt like I didn't have a choice," she said. "You never 
know if you make the right decision."

Swine flu targets young 
adults, too, yet just 16 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds were very likely to seek 
vaccine, down from 34 percent in September.

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted 
November 5-9 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media. It involved landline and 
cell phone interviews with 1,006 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling 
error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

—

AP Polling Director Trevor 
Thompson contributed to this report.
Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All 
rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or 
redistributed.
2009-11-12 16:11:07