Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Will H5N1 and H1N1 Mix? |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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The World Health Organization is also now acknowledging the H5N1 threat? CONCERNS GROW OVER POSSIBLE H1N1-H5N1 'REASSORTMENT,' OTHER MUTATIONS 'The obvious risk is of H5N1 combining with the pandemic [H1N1] virus' Virologists and influenza authorities are becoming increasingly concerned that the 2009 A-H1N1 flu virus could “reassort” with the highly virulent H5N1 avian flu that’s still prevalent in parts of the world like China, and that a mutation could occur resulting in a new strain that has the lethality of H5N1 and the human transmissibility of A-H1N1. The concerns have grown in the wake of revelations that mutations of the H1N1 flu virus had been found in Norway and elsewhere, leading experts to fear that it might just be a matter of time before there’s a reassortment of H1N1 and H5N1. This comes as the World Health Organization (WHO) reported very high pandemic activity in Italy, Norway, the Republic of Moldova, the Russian Federation (Urals region), and Sweden. Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine also reported high pandemic activity. Meanwhile, authorities said they believe the peak of the A-H1N1 pandemic's second wave hasn’t yet been reached in some parts of the world. WHO said it’s keeping a "very careful” eye on the reported mutations in order to ascertain whether it is causing more severe illness diseases than the A-H1N1 virus. "We really need to look at this very carefully to see whether it is in fact associated with severe cases," WHO spokesman Thomas Abraham told reporters. He said investigations by WHO's collaborating network of labs will be able to provide a better "understanding … about clinical features associated with the infection of this particular form of the virus." WHO warned that the H5N1 virus has emerged in poultry in Egypt, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam just as the H1N1 pandemic influenza continues its rampage across the world. Virologists told HSToday.us that “it’s very possible that the two flu strains could combine – this reassortment that we talk about – that could result in a mix of the two,” as one explained. “Of course, what we are concerned about is a mutation that contains the worst characteristics of the two viruses.” Zhong Nanshan, director of the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Diseases in China's southern Guangdong province, warned that China has to be on high alert to any mutation and changes in the virulence of A-H1N1. Meanwhile, Norwegian health authorities reported a potentially significant mutation in H1N1 that could be responsible for the severest symptoms in those infected by the strain - especially persons most at risk to the virus. Similar mutations have been reported elsewhere, but haven’t necessarily provoked a more virulent virus or proven to be less resistant to Tamiflu or other antivirals. Nevertheless, authorities increasingly are concerned. Additionally, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported during a November 25 press briefing that there's been "a worrisome spike in serious pneumococcal disease" linked to A-H1N1 had appeared in the CDC's Active Bacterial Core surveillance program that monitors infections at ten locations across the nation. CDC reported a tripling of cases of severe, life-threatening bacterial infections at the monitoring sites. http://www.hstoday.us/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11277&Itemid=149 |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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WHO First Suggested Reassortment
"This would be a catastrophic reassortment," stated virologist Gregory Evans. "Depending on how H1N1/H5N1 recombine, if we incorporate the evidence we now have of indirect mixtures and antiviral resistance, the implications could be devasting." The WHO stated: "The chances for genetic reassortment depend upon both the duration of H5N1 circulation in pigs as well as the simultaneous presence of human and pig influenza A viruses (such as H3N2 or H1N1). As long as human and avian influenza viruses are co-circulating - whether in humans or in pigs - the possibility of an exchange of genetic material-exists." Russian doctors have recently stated that a new flu virus might appear as a result of reassortment between the swine flu and bird flu viruses. "We have been monitoring it very closely," Gennady Onishchenko told journalists. The combination of H5N1 bird flu and H1N1 viruses could become a monstrous hybrid - a virus that combines high mortality rate of the former and ability to transmit efficiently among people of the latter. Recent media reports have stated that a swine flu mutation is now resistant to the antiviral Tamiflu. The change that created Tamiflu resistance has been found in about 75 people around the world, said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, chief flu adviser to the W.H.O.’s director general. Dr. Patricia Doyle on the H1N1/H5N1 mix : The WHO and CDC are quiet about it, first of all because it would spoil (or as they say in My guess is, and it is just a guess, that this co-infection will develop into a major strain subunit and be the deadly virus easily transmitted human to human. My guess is that it will also spread like wildfire in the avian population and thus become endemic as we see with H5N1. They don't want people to know until they can put a spin on this. You can bet they have their spin docs working over-time on this one. Once a vaccination against H1N1 is started, the virus will re-assort itself into a hybrid H1N1/H5N1 strain or mutate into a new H5N1 strain as its already start mutating in pigs and turkey. The current H1N1 strain, contains synthetically gene spliced strains of two forms of human flu viruses, two forms of swine flu viruses, and a single form of avian flu virus. http://preventdisease.com/news/09/120209_who_suggested_h5n1_h1n1 _reassortment_2004.shtml
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4=laro
Valued Member Joined: April 18 2007 Status: Offline Points: 731 |
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The
current H1N1 strain, contains synthetically gene spliced strains of two
forms of human flu viruses, two forms of swine flu viruses, and a
single form of avian flu virus.
----------------------------------------------------------- Can you explain that statement? |
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Pookey
Valued Member Joined: July 20 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 79 |
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Once a vaccination against H1N1 is started, the virus will re-assort itself into a hybrid H1N1/H5N1 strain or mutate into a new H5N1 strain as its already start mutating in pigs and turkey.
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I think that the D225G receptor change is of a more immediate concern, than H5N1and H1N1 getting together. "The designation of an isolate with D225G as a low reactor raises concerns that the increasing immunity to H1N1 will select for isolates with D225G." This is a quote is from someone you do not like, but I find it chilling none the less, since D225G is already here and is a killer.
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Mary008
V.I.P. Member Joined: June 22 2009 Status: Offline Points: 5769 |
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...But "the risk was overestimated," said Bernard Vallat, director general of the animal health organization, also known as the OIE.
Vallat said the H5N1 virus has proved extremely stable, despite concerns that it could mutate into a form that could spread easily among humans.
"We have never seen such a stable strain," Vallat said.
He said concerns a few years ago that a flu pandemic from H5N1 might be imminent lacked scientific proof.
"It was just nonscientific supposition," he told reporters.
scroll down page to see-
Group: Bird Flu Pandemic Risk Overblown
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Mary008
V.I.P. Member Joined: June 22 2009 Status: Offline Points: 5769 |
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Whatever H5N1 reassorts with... just won't have the same kick.
WHO says-
CONCERNS GROW OVER POSSIBLE H1N1-H5N1 'REASSORTMENT,' OTHER MUTATIONS
I don't think we need to look for flus of mass destructiion.
It means big bucks for big Pharma... (and it keeps certain people employed in certain jobs )
The chances for genetic reassortment depend upon both the duration of
H5N1 circulation in pigs
............................................................. Domestic Pigs Have Low Susceptibility to H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses
... In this study, we characterized in a pig model the infection caused by four H5N1 virus strains isolated from humans, poultry and wild birds. We demonstrated that exposure of pigs through the nose with H5N1 viruses or consumption of meat from infected chickens resulted in infection with mild weight loss.
In contrast to mouse and ferret animal models where some of viruses were highly pathogenic and replicated in multiple organs, replication of H5N1 viruses in pigs was restricted to the respiratory tract, mainly to the lungs, and tonsils.
Mild to moderate bronchiolitis and pneumonia were observed in the lungs of infected animals. Our results demonstrated that domestic pigs had low susceptibility to infection and disease with highly
pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses. ....................
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Mary008
V.I.P. Member Joined: June 22 2009 Status: Offline Points: 5769 |
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Dr T Ott has found in the US patents office a patent for the swine flu virus. The patent is owned by none other than Medimmune who stands to profit around $151 million dollars from US taxpayers. ...
These are not my own views... but I do not feel live is the way to go for vaccines.
Was the spray widely used? nationwide?
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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This story is over 1 year old - way before h1n1 emerged. The question is, since h1n1 can infect a lot more species than compared to h3n2 and other flus, will this new virus give h5n1 what it needs? It's way too early to say the two can't form a new strain Mary. Give it until spring and then start your spin.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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The purpose of this site is track h5n1 and the potential of having an avian flu pandemic as the stakes are very high in this type of situation. That means that we will not be using this site to spread the message that threat is EVER over - and that there is no longer a super flu threat. Therefore Mary, you can hold off on the message (that everything is over) forever on this site. We will watch h5n1 for a very long time to come, and we will never down play its' potential. If h5n1 ever makes the leap to humans, whether it's 10 years from now, or next month, the consequences of ever letting our guards down could be very costly for A LOT of people. Therefore, we will watch H5N1 forever. We're going all the way to the end with this thing. Like I've said, h5n1 may be my curse in life. Maybe all of yours as well I suppose.
Maybe we all better get along since we might be here for awhile?
Onward >>
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DANNYKELLEY
Admin Group Joined: May 01 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2785 |
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could not have put it better my self!nice to here from you Albert!!!!!
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WHAT TO DO????
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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My little a/i watch dogs, you .....
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coyote
Admin Group Joined: April 25 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8395 |
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Hi Albert, nice to see that your still around...
India: Over 44,000 birds culled in bird-flu hit Murshidabad Over 44,000 poultry birds were culled in West Bengal's bird-flu hit Murshidabad district, (Snip) 'The situation is being monitored on a daily basis. So far 44,967 birds have been culled and 3,352 eggs destroyed,' (Snip) The outbreak of avian influenza was notified in Murshidabad district Jan 14. Since then, officials said, two more epicentres have surfaced - Haripur and Ninur in the district. On Jan 17, Faridpur village of Burwan block was also notified as avian-flu hit. To monitor the situation, the union health ministry has stationed a three-member central rapid response team at Murshidabad to assist state health authorities. Bird flu normally infects only birds and less commonly, pigs. |
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Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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coyote
Admin Group Joined: April 25 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8395 |
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Status Report on Avian Influenza outbreak in West Bengal
Official Statement Excerpt: • 353 poultry workers involved in culling operations and 26 Hospital staffs have been put on chemoprophylaxis. • The Surveillance activities are going on in 0-3 Km and 3-10Km area. In 0-3Km area, out of a total of 120425 populations, 116495 have been covered on 20.01.2010 and 4 persons have been identified with Fever/URI and one of them has exposure history to the dead/sick poultry.In 3-10Km area, a population of 16000 has been covered and no one has been found with Fever/URI. • The identified hospital has reported 12 cases of fever with URI but none of them have history of contact with infected poultry. • State Govt. has adequate stock of oseltamivir and personal protective equipment. http://pib.nic.in/release/rele... |
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Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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coyote
Admin Group Joined: April 25 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8395 |
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Egypt: Death number 28 from H5N1
1/21/2010 5:39:00 PM Cairo - Editor Masrawy - died on Thursday the situation of human disease No. 28 of avian flu which is of a woman aged 20, from Beni Suef, the hospital issued following the failure of the Abbasid in breathing. A statement by the Ministry of Health, bringing the total number of deaths in Egypt, 28 cases of the onset of the disease in 2006 so far and this case is the first death in 2010. Source: Middle East News Agency, Masrawy. google translated orginal source http://www.masrawy.com/news/ |
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Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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Technologist
Admin Group Joined: May 05 2009 Location: California Status: Offline Points: 1192 |
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Albert, I agree with you almost 100%. I'm not kissing a_ss and you know that. Not because you know me but because you are a forum babysitter like me. At the same time H5N1 is so dormant that we have nothing to talk about. So in effect to keep this forum rolling we find other topics to keep it alive and I like most of the people here. If H5N1 jumps into action and becomes a threat again. I will retreat or step forward and focus on H5N1.
If you notice I'm on SwineFlu.org as Geekologie (I make that clear in my posts with a technologist disclaimer) My behavior is different on that site. Why? Because I clearly see that site is dedicated to the Swine flu. I noticed traffic dropped almost 90% recently, more then I expected but it's because the Swine flu has tapered down across the globe. We might see another wave, until then it's a realistic topic and another wave may or not roll in. I was expecting the probability of another wave was high but so far it's kicked the seasonal flu to the curb. Nothing like a Pandemic that saves lives? That makes no sense but I did say that was a very likely scenario many months before it happened. Don't think I'm bragging that I think I'm correct all that time as I made a wild guess that Haiti's death toll would be about 35,000 and it's already hit 75,000 so I do make plenty of mistakes. The reason I stopped posting as Technologist on SW.org is because I lost my password and retrieving it does not work. HINT to Albert. My email address is in my profile is 15 years old and I have $300K worth of domains being auctioned this week alone. That's less then 1% of the domains I own. That's not bragging as I have friends that make me look like a little fish in comparison and they started domaining 5-8 years after I did. I wish I had their drive and work ethics but I hit that damn comfort level where my priorities are pushed to the back burner to fulfill stupid things like enjoying life and learning new things 15 hours a day. I don't think the swine flu was overblown at all. It was always something that had a small potential to mutate into something much more serious and while the risk has dropped it's still present. This was one Pandemic that most of us lucked out on so far. I don't care if the government spent a few billion as some nasty Pandemic will roll in and that government effort can be duplicated to hopefully cut the casualties down substantially. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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You crack me up tech. I made you Moderator over both of my sites now. Your old user at swineflu.org is now a mod. Please do not ban anyone unless they're spammers, etc.... In the mod room on swine flu.org, I put out for the mods some small guidelines to help assist them in moderating. I'm very slow at times to delete spam, and your assistance would be appreciated.
Also, this would obviously mean no picking-on Med ever, or anyone whatsoever.
A
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Technologist
Admin Group Joined: May 05 2009 Location: California Status: Offline Points: 1192 |
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I can see the subtle ipv4 hint so I guess its real.
That might be a smart way of keeping me from challenging Med. I know the differences between moderators and posters. Mods don't step on users so I respectfully understand what you're asking of me. Cleaning up spam is fun as long as it's clearly spam. I would consider Giving TurboGuy mod privileges as he would be a better moderator then me and you do need a few more mods. BTW: I have about a millon IPv4 addresses and >90% are gone. It's going to be a big mess in the next few months. Check out this article. I never looked if you own a few domains or many but it's going to be messy as domain owners switch over. It might seem seamless but many sites will loose those search engine rankings in the process. http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2010/01/90-of-ipv4-address-space-used-ipv6-move-looking-messy.ars |
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edprof
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Thank you guys for your good work. I appreciate you more than you (Plural) will ever know.
EDprof |
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Oftentimes the Lord helps those who help themselves.
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Penham
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Woohoo, that means I have help over here too!
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Technologist
Admin Group Joined: May 05 2009 Location: California Status: Offline Points: 1192 |
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Albert, Is end times a forum where fiction can run wild like my zombie thread http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=25672 or is it an attempt to focus on things people think "might" really happen?
If it's a mix of fact, fiction, conspiracy theories, superstition, fantasy and reality then it might be an interesting place. I would rather use my Geekologie handle from swineflu.org. I'm just not sure what you want that forum to develop into. Med might be a great asset in getting that forum rolling if you let people go wild. What would be the clear cut rules? No personal attacks, slander and spamming? What about swearing and abbreviations of swear words? What about links to unreliable sources? Those would be permitted correct? |
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jandressup
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It's an accident waiting to happen.....viruses are 'opportunists'......it's just a matter of time till the right combinations of mutations unlock the door.....if ...it already hasn't happened!!!
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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Loribearme
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Didn't it mix in the Ukraine?
that was either the plague or a mix.
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Mary008
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reassorting... it's what flu viruses do... like, will it rain? yes, if we get the right mix of weather conditions. on and on... keeps people employed..
searching.
Reassortant viruses were also described following the re-emergence of the H1N1 subtype in 1977 that did not replace the previously circulating H3N2 viruses. In this case, co-circulation of influenza viruses of both subtypes continued, and co-infection with both subtypes was reported [43]. While reassortant H3N1 strains were not isolated, H1N1 strains containing reassorted internal protein-encoding gene segments from H3N2 viruses were observed [44,45]. Occasional isolates of H1N2 viruses were also detected after the re-emergence of H1N1 [46,47]. More recently, the widespread circulation of viruses with the H1N2 subtype has been documented [41]. These viruses contained the HA segment of contemporary H1N1 viruses reassorted onto an H3N2 background, a 7:1 reassortment pattern similar to that observed with the sporadically circulating H1N2 viruses of the 1980s and early 1990s [47] and to the dominant reassortments described in this analysis. Since the H1 and N2 subtype proteins were antigenically and genetically similar to co-circulating H1N1 and H3N2 subtype viruses, the emergence of this new subtype did not result in an epidemiologically significant event [41]. Reassortment among co-circulating clades of H3N2 viruses like that observed in the current study has also been previously described, including reassortment of the NA gene segment [48] and the core protein-encoding segments [49].
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studduck
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Well, the Gov't is about as concerned for the people it is suppose to take care regarding the 'bird flu' as they are about the "fraud street " situation!
A good example is the absolute cover up of the SV-40 issue. Any of you scientific people on here with any knowledge knows about SV-40, the brain tumors it has caused in the 1950-60's polio vacination program!
With this knowledge in hand do you really think they are going to get excited about some abstract thing call bird flu??
With the new information coming out of the Ukraine and eastern Europe this week, and the news media blackout of that information, well, its coming, it coming fast, and it will probably kill you or someone you know by next year! If it doesn;t kill, it will do irrepairable harm (brain damage/injury due to high fever)to the infected survivors!
I pitty those on the coasts in large cities. Just read up on the situation in Boston in 1918 and the body disposal problem they had!
The good side if there is one, is that with 10% less people, demand for resources will be 10% less, causing great economic decline world wide!
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Kilt2
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All it takes is for either a pig or a human to catch both influenza clades and bingo
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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roni3470
Adviser Group Joined: August 30 2006 Location: Colorado Status: Online Points: 5390 |
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Hey all. I watched this show called after armageddon the other day. It was interesting that in the show the actual thing that caused armageddon was avian flu. It followed this couple that lived in the city and their path through the disease. It was VERY interesting and worth watching. I am not even sure what channel, TLC or History, but it was great! Look it up doing a search and watch it if you can!
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NOW is the Season to Know
that Everything you Do is Sacred |
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Suzi2
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I saw it. It was interesting. It was very educational. The Health Dept and Emergency Management people who appeared throughout were enlightening also. In more ways than one. What scared me was that there are people saying to themselves "We've got to show this to people. We've got to get them thinking on how to get ready". I want them to get ready also, but it still scares me when I see someone trying. I like to say to myself that even though I think this and that is coming it will probably be ok.
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Mary008
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. ...What scared me was that there are people saying ...but it still scares me when I see someone trying. ... it will probably be ok. .............................................. It will be ok... we have all flu all the time ... and the technology now is up to the task. ........... Mary008 |
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