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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

5762 cases / 2746 deaths
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Albert View Drop Down
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    Posted: September 20 2014 at 6:27pm
Ebola cases and deaths by country and by date
Date Total Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone Nigeria Senegal Refs
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths
17 Sep 2014 5,762 2,746 965 623 3,022 1,578 1,753 537 21 8 1 0 ✓[2][3][4]
14 Sep 2014 5,339 2,586 942 601 2,720 1,461 1,655 516 21 8 1 0 ✓[8][9][10]
10 Sep 2014 4,846 2,375 899 568 2,415 1,307 1,509 493 22 8 3 0 ✓[299][300]
7 Sep 2014 4,366 2,177 861 557 2,081 1,137 1,424 476 22 7 3 0 ✓[140][301]
3 Sep 2014 4,001 2,089 823 522 1,863 1,078 1,292 452 22 7 1 0 ✓[302]
31 Aug 2014 3,707 1,808 771 494 1,698 871 1,216 436 21 7 1 0 ✓[303][304]
25 Aug 2014 3,071 1,553 648 430 1,378 694 1,026 422 19 7

✓[305]
20 Aug 2014 2,615 1,427 607 406 1,082 624 910 392 16 5

✓[306]
18 Aug 2014 2,473 1,350 579 396 972 576 907 374 15 4

✓[307]
16 Aug 2014 2,240 1,229 543 394 834 466 848 365 15 4

✓[308]
13 Aug 2014 2,127 1,145 519 380 786 413 810 348 12 4

✓[309]
11 Aug 2014 1,975 1,069 510 377 670 355 783 334 12 3

✓[310]
9 Aug 2014 1,848 1,013 506 373 599 323 730 315 13 2

✓[311]
6 Aug 2014 1,779 961 495 367 554 294 717 298 13 2

✓[312]
4 Aug 2014 1,711 932 495 363 516 282 691 286 9 1

✓[313]
1 Aug 2014 1,603 887 485 358 468 255 646 273 4 1

✓[314]
30 Jul 2014 1,440 826 472 346 391 227 574 252 3 1

✓[315]
27 Jul 2014 1,323 729 460 339 329 156 533 233 1 1

✓[316]
23 Jul 2014 1,201 672 427 319 249 129 525 224



✓[317]
20 Jul 2014 1,093 660 415 314 224 127 454 219



✓[318]
17 Jul 2014 1,048 632 410 310 196 116 442 206



✓[319]
14 Jul 2014 982 613 411 310 174 106 397 197



✓[320]
12 Jul 2014 964 603 406 304 172 105 386 194



✓[321]
8 Jul 2014 888 539 409 309 142 88 337 142



✓[322]
6 Jul 2014 844 518 408 307 131 84 305 127



✓[323]
2 Jul 2014 779 481 412 305 115 75 252 101



✓[324]
30 Jun 2014 759
(6/25)+22		 467
+14		 413
+3		 303
+5		 107
+8		 65
+7		 239
+11		 99
+2



✓[325]
22 Jun 2014 599 338 — — 51 34 — —



✓[326]
20 Jun 2014 581 328 390
+0		 270
+3		 — — 158
+0		 34
+4


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onefluover View Drop Down
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Points: 20151 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 20 2014 at 9:39pm
For Swine flu to have garnered this many deaths -assuming the true count is x4, over 500,000 people would have already been infected. I suppose I will look up 2008/2009 in our archives to compare where H1N1 was six months into the first reports of clusters.
"And then there were none."
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Points: 6035 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2014 at 6:58am
Just messing around with graphs again. Ebola still sitting on 30 day doubling based on deaths. No abatement yet. Getting more concerned....
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Points: 9851 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2014 at 7:24am
Hey Cobber, a question for you.

How hard would it be to do a comparison graph or overlay showing the 500k over the next 14 weeks?

What i mean to say is, if they are saying we may reach X numbers by Y time, we can see where we really are now right?

I am terrible at math but if you have X and Y won't that give you P ?

In a weird way they just gave us the numbers to plug into a formula to see what numbers they are SEEING now right? That number would be what they are basing the modeling on and also would be the unpublished numbers we have been speculating about am i correct?
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Points: 6035 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2014 at 7:29am
Just messing with graphs again. 

I haven't done one with reported cases until now. I really don't hold much faith in reported cases, as they are inaccurate in comparison to deaths. Usually a death is usually very definite, especially with a virus like Ebola. What i mean by that is, An Ebola death isn't mistaken for something else, like the flu. They are also very hard to hide by the authorities.

So this is the first time messing around. 

My basic assumption is that cases should trend very closely with 30 day doubling, which we have observed with deaths. As you can see from the graph (black line). The actual cases are well in front of this trend.
I don't understand why. Maybe i'm missing something. 

Anyone have an explanation for this?



PS: where the green line starts is just a nominal spot where i thought case reporting was reasonably stable.
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pheasant View Drop Down
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Points: 9851 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2014 at 7:38am
I'm not sure what I am talking about, but my brain suggests that their model is based on different numbers that they have ...which we do not.
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Points: 6035 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2014 at 7:50am
Hi Pheasant, I don't hold much faith in the case numbers as you can see above. They are a little flimsy.

If you are talking deaths its quite easy to calculate. Just get a calculator and take the current figure and times it by two. That will put you approximately 30 days out (close enough to a month). repeat again and you get two months out etc etc.

Eg: 17th September 2014 we have 2746. Times 2  17th Oct 14 = 5492. Times 2  17 Nov 14= 10984 

And roughly on the 11th of May we hit 500,000 deaths

Now that's scary!!!!
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Points: 6035 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2014 at 8:04am
I don't hold much faith in the doubling every three weeks that the CDC discuss. Its based on upper range stats. I think the 30 day is closer to reality. Either way its still terrifying. Especially if it can't be brought under control soon.
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