cobber wrote: It may be old news. Essentially the Republican senator is saying China is lying (several times over). Cases an order of magnitude larger than published and suggesting that this is a possible bio weapon. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=33&v=FHA5Nfg5sCI&feature=emb_logo Very very inflammatory. This must have caused a diplomatic fight. $hit must be hitting the fan behind the scenes... These are fighting words!!!!

I've been saying the same thing for over a month now but what if it becomes endemic? What if year in and year out the "Common Cold" kills 2% of our population?

Airish when that happens year after year the herd builds immunity so unless it mutates significantly we will not see 2% year after year it will significantly drop over time. Trust our evolution and the minds who make our vaccines

I still think something fishy is going on. Political considerations aside, It is clear that the Chinese screwed this thing up really big.   If it is a common cold type situation then why the 14 day incubation period ?. Am I off base here to be a bit more than worried about this one ? I know that this is a new virus and such , but killing that many people and prompting a response like this is not your ordinary virus.   I have been wrong in the past and may be off base now, but there is a whole lot more to this story than what we are being told.

Even with a 2% CFR, it is more than a nothingbuger. No country I can think of has the surge capacity to deal with that. Given the percentage of infected with serious and critical disease, even at 2% it will be a nightmare. There are not enough isolation wards, ventilators, medical staff,PPE, etc. We really need to pray it does not hit the rest of the world with that CFR.

I keep going back to China's immediate responses: 1. HIDE it. 2. Institute mind boggling measures to contain it.

In a multiple choice test, the only incident that would result in those actions (in my mind) is

x: Something they were working on was somehow accidentally released (could have been *anything*), and what they know about it from the research is that it requires draconian measures to contain.

:shrug:

Flubergasted wrote: Even with a 2% CFR, it is more than a nothingbuger. No country I can think of has the surge capacity to deal with that. Given the percentage of infected with serious and critical disease, even at 2% it will be a nightmare. There are not enough isolation wards, ventilators, medical staff,PPE, etc. We really need to pray it does not hit the rest of the world with that CFR.

I was thinking (after some coffee! ) wasn't the Spanish flu about 2%? Or am I remembering completely wrong (wouldn't be the first time)…!!!

2% of China's 1.39 billion - 27,800,000
2% of USA 328 million - 6,560,000
2% of Canadas 37 million - 740,000
2% of Australia's 25 million - 500,000
2% of New Zealands 5 million - 100,000
2% of Scotlands 5.5 million - 110,000

So no - not a slate wiper...but not exactly a powderpuff either! And none of these numbers matter until it's your wife, husband, daughter, son, mom, dad, sister, brother that becomes a statistic.
What I believe everyone on this forum is trying their darndest to not have happen!!

Exactly!

You can change my name to Cassandra if you wish - name changing is in vogue. I don't care wether or not it is bioengineered, released, escaped, the product of wet markets or eating bats. Those are not the BIG questions.

What is the real CFR? What is the actual R0? How long does the disease keep people in the ICU and how big a percentage of its sufferers does it put there?   Those are the BIG questions!   We only have educated guesses so far, and they are indicating: "Bad enough to disrupt every health service on the planet."

Again, apologies for oxford comma use.

ME163 wrote: I still think something fishy is going on. Political considerations aside, It is clear that the Chinese screwed this thing up really big.   If it is a common cold type situation then why the 14 day incubation period ?. Am I off base here to be a bit more than worried about this one ? I know that this is a new virus and such , but killing that many people and prompting a response like this is not your ordinary virus.   I have been wrong in the past and may be off base now, but there is a whole lot more to this story than what we are being told.

 

Flubergasted wrote: I was thinking (after some coffee! ) wasn't the Spanish flu about 2%? Or am I remembering completely wrong (wouldn't be the first time)…!!! 2% of China's 1.39 billion - 27,800,000 2% of USA 328 million - 6,560,000 2% of Canadas 37 million - 740,000 2% of Australia's 25 million - 500,000 2% of New Zealands 5 million - 100,000 2% of Scotlands 5.5 million - 110,000 So no - not a slate wiper...but not exactly a powderpuff either! And none of these numbers matter until it's your wife, husband, daughter, son, mom, dad, sister, brother that becomes a statistic. What I believe everyone on this forum is trying their darndest to not have happen!!

Yes it is. I beg to differ.

It's a coronavirus, they evolved to be airborne.

Having said that, airborne is a difficult classification. No virus has tiny wings or cillia or flagella or such like to propel it about. Airborne viruses simply have tough outer protein envelopes to protect their RNA or DNA contents from drying out or ultraviolet radiation etc.. So being airborne really means 'capable of living outside the host long enough to be wafted onto another' they tend to congregate in the upper respiratior tract too.

There are both exceptions and blurry classifications. Most filoviruses are not airborne as the filament is too easily broken, but marburg is an exception (sort of). Most coronaviruses are airborne, but this could be an exception too - it does prefer the lower respiratory tract rather than the upper.

Personally I don't believe it. Airborne, will be a discussion for some time for this virus, both here and in accademia.

Nc girl, absolutely! No, your memory (and Flubergasted's) is fine, those were the figures. The best senario guesses for this virus mimics that, the worst is worse. 'And yes, secondary infections took the older patients, Primary infections took the young. Spanish flu was an exception in that with lots of young dying,- and of the flu itself. The older found it an 'ordinary' flu, with a few deaths from secondary infections. The second wave was the nastiest.

Graphic Phesant, but as good as any official classification.

Antibiotics only good for secondary infection will not touch virus!