Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Off Topic Forum > Off Topic Discussion > Talk about anything
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - What we don't know
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

What we don't know

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
arirish View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: June 19 2013
Location: Arkansas
Status: Offline
Points: 39215
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: What we don't know
    Posted: February 17 2020 at 10:23pm
What we don't know!
1. What is the reservoir?
2. How is it spread?
3. How long is the incubation period?
4. When does the patient become infectious?
5. How long does a patient remain infectious?

also

How long can the virus live on different surfaces?
What is the ideal temperature range for the virus?
What is the ideal humidity and ph range?
And a hundred other questions!

I think we would already have many of these answers if we were dealing with any other country!
Buy more ammo!
Back to Top
CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
Expert Level Adviser
Expert Level Adviser


Joined: January 20 2014
Location: Arizona
Status: Offline
Points: 26660
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2020 at 11:20pm
Originally posted by arirish arirish wrote:

What we don't know!
1. What is the reservoir?
2. How is it spread?
3. How long is the incubation period?
4. When does the patient become infectious?
5. How long does a patient remain infectious?

also

How long can the virus live on different surfaces?
What is the ideal temperature range for the virus?
What is the ideal humidity and ph range?
And a hundred other questions!

I think we would already have many of these answers if we were dealing with any other country!

I have over 30 years of infectious disease epidemiology under my belt, this is good information & I trust the CDC on this.  

CRS, DrPH
Back to Top
CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
Expert Level Adviser
Expert Level Adviser


Joined: January 20 2014
Location: Arizona
Status: Offline
Points: 26660
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2020 at 11:26pm
From the CDC website:  When a population eats bats, you have to figure that something bad will happen.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a betacoronavirus, like MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, both of which have their origins in bats. The sequences from U.S. patients are similar to the one that China initially posted, suggesting a likely single, recent emergence of this virus from an animal reservoir.

When a population eats bats, you have to figure that something bad will happen.






CRS, DrPH
Back to Top
WuTang Flu View Drop Down
Experienced Member
Experienced Member


Joined: February 18 2020
Status: Offline
Points: 10
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WuTang Flu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 1:23pm
I believe that was from a travel show, in Palau, several years ago. Unrelated to current events.
Back to Top
BeachMama View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member
Avatar

Joined: January 25 2020
Location: Southwest US
Status: Offline
Points: 3080
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BeachMama Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 8:37pm
I just feel bad for the poor bat. 🦇
Back to Top
BabyCat View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member


Joined: January 26 2020
Status: Offline
Points: 15175
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 9:11pm
I nearly spit out my hot tea, Beachmama!

Yeah, I lived in China. For the most part, too many Chinese show themselves to be cruel to animals. Many do eat dogs - I often saw carcassess strung up outside a shop. They'll eat just about anything, and that's not racist, that's just a fact. In a Chinese Walmart, you could have live toad, eel, snake, turtle, etc. The wet markets all sorts of creatures, most cruelly caged. There's a theory I heard while living there that the more an animal is afraid when dying, the better the taste, leading to torturing animals as they are being killed, such as by boiling them alive. I worked with a dog animal rescue shelter that had to remain hidden because otherwise the dog-nappers would come and take them to sell them for meat.
Back to Top
arirish View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: June 19 2013
Location: Arkansas
Status: Offline
Points: 39215
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 9:37pm
Chuck: Thanks for the link! I trust the CDC too but there are a lot of Maybe's, possibles, people are thought to,might be possible in other words unknowns in the CDC statement!

BabyCat said: There's a theory I heard while living there that the more an animal is afraid when dying.

As a life long hunter I much prefer a drop shot! Animals that are afraid tend to produce adrenaline which makes the meat tough and tasteless and it spoils faster!
Buy more ammo!
Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Assistant Admin
Assistant Admin
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 88450
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 19 2020 at 12:47am
I could not agree more, Beachmama, Babycat and Arirish.

I am unlikely to give up my meat, but one of the reasons for having a smallholding is so I can kill my own chickens. That way I know for certain they have had a good life and died without fear or pain.

Even air-rifles are heavily controlled here now, but once upon a time we would lie in wait for our own chickens and kill with a headshot.

You can laugh if you want.
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 29640
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 19 2020 at 11:27am
Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:



Even air-rifles are heavily controlled here now, but once upon a time we would lie in wait for our own chickens and kill with a headshot.

.


We chop the heads off ours.
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Assistant Admin
Assistant Admin
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 88450
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 19 2020 at 11:29am
We have to now.
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
Back to Top
CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
Expert Level Adviser
Expert Level Adviser


Joined: January 20 2014
Location: Arizona
Status: Offline
Points: 26660
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 19 2020 at 12:36pm
Originally posted by WuTang Flu WuTang Flu wrote:

I believe that was from a travel show, in Palau, several years ago. Unrelated to current events.

Not unrelated at all.  The COVID-19 agent is genetically proven to be a bat virus, and the wet-market in Wuhan that was the source of the outbreak sold live bats for food.  

Although Huanan Market is known as a seafood market,[15] it was primarily infamous for the mostly illegal[citation needed] sale of bushmeat (ye wei in Chinese) and other exotic animals due to the demand for such animals for consumption.[8][15] An image that had been circulating on the Internet showed a price list from a business at the market that listed prices for 112 items including a number of wild animals.[2]
According to media reports, items sold at the market included:
  1. ^ In the circulated price list, the item described as "koala" is "树熊" (literally: 'tree bear'), which may instead refer to a kind of beaver.[10] Koalas are not found in China except in captivity.

CRS, DrPH
Back to Top
CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
Expert Level Adviser
Expert Level Adviser


Joined: January 20 2014
Location: Arizona
Status: Offline
Points: 26660
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 19 2020 at 12:40pm
Originally posted by arirish arirish wrote:

Chuck: Thanks for the link! I trust the CDC too but there are a lot of Maybe's, possibles, people are thought to,might be possible in other words unknowns in the CDC statement!


Welcome to the world of infectious disease epidemiology.  In our official messaging, we often have to go with the best information at hand, just to inform the public and get the public health infrastructure to gear up for response.  


This is a severe cold virus, nothing more.  Some folks have a fatal reaction because it is recently evolved from a living bat reservoir, and many times, zoonitic viruses seem most virulent when they first jump to humans.  However, some like Ebola just keep on going and going. 
CRS, DrPH
Back to Top
roni3470 View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: August 30 2006
Location: Colorado
Status: Offline
Points: 5370
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 19 2020 at 1:06pm
Ha.  Trust the CDC?  no thanks!
NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
Back to Top
Diligent View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: April 11 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 1300
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Diligent Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 10:04pm

Arirish.

To add to your questions :

What is / will be -

The true ( CFR ) Case Fatality Rate 

D.
 

Back to Top
xiangzhanger View Drop Down
Experienced Member
Experienced Member


Joined: March 04 2020
Status: Offline
Points: 15
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote xiangzhanger Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 4:56am

Hi Im Chinese and Im not an expert on this. Hope the following information helps.

1. What is the reservoir? Not sure probably animals like pangolins or bats

2. How is it spread?

a. spread rapid via aerial droplets and fomites with inhalation into the pharynx or lower respiratory tract.(one case shows 15 seconds would be enough to spread from one to another if stand close talking both without masks.) aerosol spreading is mostly possible. It can spread through central air conditioning.

b.the virus could also be detected in digest system. Not sure whether it will spread through this.


3. How long is the incubation period?

1 to 14days, mostly 3-7days. The longest officially admitted cases are of 24 days.

4. When does the patient become infectious?

Two days before he has symptoms.

5. How long does a patient remain infectious?

Not sure. Patients can leave hospital if

a. No fever for more than 3 days

b. Symptoms for respiratory system is highly reduced.

c. CT shows the recovery of lungs

d. NAT test -negative for twice 

And the patients should stay at home for 14 days after leaving the hospital.



Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Assistant Admin
Assistant Admin
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 88450
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 5:16am

What a wonderful first post!


Welcome Aboard xiangzhanger !

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down