Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Note This Day - CDC Dir. Makes Declaration |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Posted: February 19 2020 at 12:08pm |
Noted for possible future reference. Unequivocal statement. Note that it does not declare that there is "no evidence" of community spread of COVID-19/SARS-2 in the US, but that there is "no spread."
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Sheep Lady
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2020 Status: Offline Points: 3215 |
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Just read last night they are discouraging the public from wearing them because the US supply is ok but might get depleted to the point where there are not enough masks, etc. for medical staff. Looking for link.
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Sheep Lady
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Damn face masks are worthless, unless you are a first-responder dealing with an active case. Save your money. Disposable masks are designed to protect hospital patients from germs exhaled by surgeons and surgical nurses, and little else. They are ineffective for community spread infections.
Most corona virus infections are from contaminated surfaces, not aerosols.
Don't even get me started on N-95 masks for the public. Double-worthless.
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CRS, DrPH
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Well, if it's good for first responders and front line staff, it's good for me. You can take your chances CRS. Cheap price to pay for an added measure of safety, in my opinion..
I find it interesting that well the government in one hand tells us it's not necessary, on the other hand are trying to secure supplies.. the Chinese military is now guarding face mask plants in China, and have labeled them as vital military defense goods.Hmmm. And it's not yet proven the transmission routes of this coronavirus. Experts say it's primarily respiratory droplets but it could potentially be aerosol. Again, just a small measure of extra safety if necessary. Better do minimize social contact than rely upon a respirato, if sustained community spread is confirmed |
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BeachMama
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 25 2020 Location: Southwest US Status: Offline Points: 3080 |
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CRS, what about gloves? I have invested in some nitrile gloves; I figured that surface contact could be hazardous (fomites, fomites EVERYWHERE!!!). Do you think that masks or gloves would be the more efficient PPE?
Just curious as to your perspective because of your background in epidemiology. Thanks for whatever thoughts you’re willing to share. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I don't belive Chuck would lie to us. If that is his 'official' polition, then that is the current actual viewpoint of the Government.
I think the whole government is a bit overconfident. But that is my opinion. As to masks, far less useful than self isolation - just look at how many medical staff have caught this. I still have some and I have watched the videos of correct use and practice makes perfect*. But if medically trained people can still catch this whilst masked, so can I. If this does go south, and I don't know yet if or when it will, I will be relying mostly on SIP. The mask will be for unavoidable contact use only (like hospital appointments). * You need to know how to fit it. How to test your fit. How to remove it. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Prepping for supply line disruption is far more fruitful. China is so screwed and so deeply embedded in most manufacturing, that problems are already starting to appear.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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I'm not suggesting CRS is not being truthful, I'm just saying I disagree that a mask is totally "worthless" "or double worthless" for the general public. It's a rather extreme statement in my opinion, but that's just his opinion, to which he is entitled to have and share.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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We are still on the same page BC.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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I agree with Chuck. Facemasks are useless either way. No matter what you do, if there is community spread, very few containment suits on the planet would help.
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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If it makes you feel good
DO IT.... I'll save mine for the "Slate Wiper"....... I just wash my hands 3 times, after I been on public transport, We had 3 visitors from Hong Kong yesterday,at work, Told boss he has to go into quarantine for 2 weeks, LMAO He did wash his hands after they left....
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Also - note the... is not spreading in the community "at this time". That is true, but an open-ended statement. It may very well be only a matter of time before community spread. This thing is a slow-mover, and primarily spread by surface contact. It's a slow moving wave as it appears.
It currently loves the ACE2 receptor binding for Asians, but let's just hope it doesn't adapt further. Although the Middle East cases with the potential virulence that rapidly increased in the two cases resulting in death is a big question mark. Who knows what China was messing with in that bio-lab and the accidental release. This virus is VERY robust. Sticks on surfaces for 28 days? A pure super bug. |
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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Me too. If I think it is best I will still wear one. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Ditto.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Hmmm.............. Boss, the ACE2 receptor is not confined to Asians. Everyone* has it on their pulmonary cell surfaces. The ACE2 protein is expressed more profusely in SMOKERS and ex smokers. The original articles got it wrong, probably because over 50% of Asian males smoke.
I say 'everyone', but there are probably a few people without it. Lucky mutations! |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I'm an ex smoker
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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Me too Techno...quit 32 years ago...bad me. So what does that mean will I die because of that?
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Us both: (24 years, I was a chainsmoker, 60-80 a day.)
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Very good point about smoking and ACE2 receptors. I read it somewhere recently but hadn't thought about it too much.
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1 Abstract In current severe global emergency situation of 2019-nCov outbreak, it is imperative to identify vulnerable and susceptible groups for effective protection and care. Recently, studies found that 2019-nCov and SARS-nCov share the same receptor, ACE2. In this study, we analyzed four large-scale datasets of normal lung tissue to investigate the disparities related to race, age, gender and smoking status in ACE2 gene expression. No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to non-smoker samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen. -- :Tobacco-related disparity We found a significant higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to nonsmoker samples in the TCGA (p-value=0.05) and GSE40419 datasets (p-value=0.008, Fig. 1B). Smokers in GSE10072 showed a higher mean of ACE2 gene expression than nonsmokers. The difference is not significant (p-value=0.18), which may be due to its small sample size (n=33) with insufficient power to detect the difference. The GSE19804 data with only smoker samples available was not included into the analysis. Adjusted by other factors (age, gender, race and platforms) in multivariate analysis, smoking still shows a significant disparity in ACE2 gene expression (p-value=0.008, Fig. 1E)." Subject Areas |
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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Have Been quiet out of respect, nobody truly knows whats is going to happen, or how.
If a few pounds of extra food makes you feel safe do it. If you want to have some masks, or personal protection in a closet/ basement then do it. If you need or want piece of mind, and can afford it, and it's not a burden then do it. If you don't want to be "that person/ family" ill prepared for some unforeseen calamity then do something about it. There is no law against being prepared... There is a reason the Government has guidelines for emergency preparedness, and there are many different scenarios for which people prepare/ make a plan for it. As to the mask thing, I hope everyone takes the doctors advice....more stuff on the shelf for people who want it. As to "completely" depending on government advice....well all i have to say is there are plans, drills, past and present, for which the government has prepared to such a degree, that ALL possibility's have been studied including, but not limited to public reaction/response, from panic responses to news/information and actions and behaviors up to and including steering the public message, tapping into or tamping down of herd mentality due to said information...... I hope CRS is correct. And as has been stated, all advice is either personal advice, or best information advice.....another option is to make your own decisions based on the best information before you, and your comfort level for risk. As far as "official" government policy/ advice, there is a checkered past with regard to past timely public danger information dissemination, this is undeniable. Sometimes to much information is dangerous to the public good, CRS can verify that, its in the play book, planning and computer modeling etc: One of the greatest phrases stolen from the Russian language, and appropriated by President Ronald Reagan was Trust but Verify! |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Yes, many, many people in China smoke. I lived there. Very common. Super cheap cigarettes.
I haven't been able to find any research on the effect of smoking cessation on ACE2 gene expression though. Definitely an effect of current smoking with that study I just posted, but haven't been able to find details on lasting effect of smoking on ACE2 receptors. Maybe you can post it if you have it? I'm also an ex-smoker. Darn, those things may just have killed me 20 years after quitting! ;) |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Great post. |
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Agreed, yes, great post
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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"Trust but verify"? Indeed...
Good luck with that one with the CCP. |
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Be careful of that study. The original person who posted that was from China on our FB group, and it as hardly a study. China will pump a lot of disinfo out. Surely we know that by now after all these years, lol. |
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nc_girl
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 19 2006 Location: NC Status: Offline Points: 3968 |
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Most experts agree that the masks won't save you from aersolized droplets BUT they all agree that it will keep you from touching your face...ie a reminder of you reach up to touch your face and you feel the mask, put your hand back down.
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Great point, and very true. Much Chinese "research" is junk or falsified. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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History may not be kind to Dr. Redfield. I made several posts about this. As I mentioned and feared. History is repeating all over again. The US did NOT learn the lessons of Wuhan!
It's clear that like China, and Iran, there is a political calculus to this. It's unconscionable. The White House has issued gag orders to Dr. Fauci and likely others. Suppressed and overly limited testing and information. ------- Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell · 22m The latest #Covid19 case in California shows the virus is spreading, undetected, at some level in the US. But until labs can test & instructions on who to test are broadened, what level that is won't be clear. https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell |
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cobber
Admin Group Joined: August 13 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6035 |
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Chuck, face masks are useless??? Agreed the surgical masks are near useless. The N95 Respirator masks will reduce your exposure, N100 even better. The efficacy of using masks is backed by significant research and evidence. |
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