2/3 of Chinese Infected Travelers Missed

The latest from Neil Ferguson and the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis:

Our latest analysis support that of
@mlipsitch
and colleagues: At least 2/3 of cases in travellers from China to other countries have likely been missed. Surveillance is never perfect.

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1230907613975580672

https://twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak/status/1230881889419976705


"Two thirds of cases exported from mainland China are undetected."

https://imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/


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THIS is Why the US Needs to be Testing More!

"Summary Report 6
Since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic in late 2019, there are now 29 affected regions and countries with over 1000 confirmed cases outside of mainland China. In previous reports, we estimated the likely epidemic size in Wuhan City based on air traffic volumes and the number of detected cases internationally. Here we analysed COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different countries. Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China."