Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Its not that bad |
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Kilt5
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 29 2017 Status: Offline Points: 5740 |
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Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:00pm |
OK 80,000 people infected
3,000 dead In the USA this season FLU 23 million infected 200,000 in hospital 20,000 dead If this was really bad we would see millions dead and millions infected Its not as infectious as the flu So the r0 is lower than the flu Stop panicking |
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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I agree it may not be as bad as the flu yet because we really do not know how many are dead in China. If they are not burning bodies in Wuhan then why all the sulfur dioxide. Anyway China will never tell anyone the truth. So no we are not panicked we are just getting ready to SIP like China Italy and soon to be coming to another country soon SIP.
The RO is worse than the flu look at the Ships that people were held on it went through like wildfire. People were in their rooms and got it Sorry but I want to have what I need if I have to SIP. Again we are not panicked we are just helping each other with what we may need. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I am vaccinated against the flu. I know what the flu will do.
This has a comparable CFR to the flu, but it picks on older folks like me and hubby. Its RO is roughly double that of a pandemic flu; maybe 3 time that of seasonal flu. Flu puts a few unlucky souls in the ICU for 3 - 5 days. The same unlucky souls with this bug go in for 3 weeks or so. I am worried, very worried, but I am also prepared. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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Ditto Techno!
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Rjw
Valued Member Joined: February 22 2020 Location: Uk Status: Offline Points: 70 |
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Flu is already endemic. This virus is just establishing itself. My feeling is we are in the first wave, a die down in the summer, then the second wave, aka the 1918 flu, in the autumn. Time will tell.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I suspect you may be right, Rjw. I really hope you are wrong but there are historical precedents for your being right.
Welcome aboard, by the way! I wish you could have joined us in less interesting times. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Kilt5
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 29 2017 Status: Offline Points: 5740 |
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I want to see the R0 for this bug
Now, a review of existing studies tries to answer another question that is crucial to controlling the epidemic: How quickly does it spread? The question is of utmost importance, especially in the light of the most recent toll: 42,708 confirmed cases and 1,017 deaths have occurred in China as of February 11, 2020. To find the answer, a team of researchers set out to examine several scientific studies of the new virus and published the results in the Journal of Travel Medicine. Joacim Rocklöv, who is a professor of sustainable health at Umeå University in Sweden, is the last and corresponding author of the new analysis. As Rocklöv and team explain in their paper, basic R0 describes the average number of new infections that an infectious person can generate in a population that was not previously exposed to the virus. An R0 greater than one suggests that the number of people infected is likely to grow, whereas an R0 of less than one suggests that the viral transmission “is likely to die out.” “The basic reproduction number is a central concept in infectious disease epidemiology, indicating the risk of an infectious agent with respect to epidemic spread,” write the authors of the paper. So, the researchers accessed several eligible studies that dealt with the basic RO from the PubMed, bioRxiv, and Google Scholar databases. The studies appeared between January 1, 2020, and February 7, 2020, and Rocklöv and team settled on a final number of 12 studies whose quality was high enough to include in the analysis. The studies they selected estimated basic R0 for the virus in China and overseas. These estimates ranged from 1.4 to 6.49 and had an average of 3.28 and a median of 2.79. Both of these numbers are significantly higher than the numbers that the WHO suggested — which were 1.4–2.5. The authors explain that the initial studies reported lower R0 values, then spiked, then returned to the initial estimates. The estimation methods the studies used played a role in these differences, note the researchers. “The studies using stochastic and statistical methods for deriving R0 provide estimates that are reasonably comparable. However, the studies using mathematical methods produce estimates that are, on average, higher.” |
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Rjw
Valued Member Joined: February 22 2020 Location: Uk Status: Offline Points: 70 |
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The Chinese curse is may you live in interesting times. Like a lot of newbies I have been a frequent visitor to this board for years. I have a feeling about this virus, interesting times. SARS worried me, Ebola far less. This one does because of potential mutations. I am a prepped, spent hundreds of days and nights out in the wild, camping, learning. Refining equipment. Many destructive storms, slept in minus 15. Enjoyed every minute baring one storm that was worrying. Destroyed everything around me. I am fine outside. I have a fascination in biochemistry. So this virus is utterly fascinating because the information is so mysterious. No one seems to know. Cfr. R0. My feeling is both are high. China's actions seem so extreme, for a government so obsessed with their economy overtaking americas. They would not do this for the flu, or a cold.
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BeachMama
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 25 2020 Location: Southwest US Status: Offline Points: 3080 |
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RJW, that was what really got my attention in the beginning as well. Nobody has (in recent memory) locked down and quarantined entire cities over the flu. Why would they do it over this, if it were indeed just a bad cold?
I would rather be too prepared, and be thought paranoid — than unprepared, and have my family look to me for what I cannot give them. |
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Pandemic
Adviser Group Joined: January 31 2020 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 2725 |
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I disagree.
It is potentially that bad !. The figures you quote are retrospective. Covid19 is emerging all the while !. Thats why we are seeing China almost grinding to a stop. I dont recall this type of action in previous flu epidemics. i believe WORLD governments are only telling us what they want us to know, and here in the UK, I'm not seeing the hyperdrive approach; that is concerning. To say UK NHS is prepared is an overstatement. They cant even cope in the emergency department at times. NHS health is state run so most of us rely on it. They do an excellent job but in a pandemic.....???! How will health services cope with up to 20% serious cases?. I'm not relying on authorities advice to deal with this. I cannot afford to get this disease as i have underlying chronic neurological disease. And even if I was young and healthy, thats not a guarantee!. Ive got my own plan to go underground for a Month. Ive got enough tinned food for a Month for me and my cat. I'm not taking this deteriorating situation lightly !. |
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ozarkcountryboy
V.I.P. Member Joined: October 02 2014 Status: Offline Points: 950 |
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I posted a link to a video taken in China on Facebook.
It was immediate taken down. I don't think we will know the truth until it is at our door.
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KiminNM
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 22 2020 Location: NM Status: Offline Points: 6605 |
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Well that's not scary at all. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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The CFR is significantly higher than that of the flu, lol. That's a no-brainer. Comparing it with the flu can't be made since the flu is global with sustained community spread. This corona bug is slow moving, but guaranteed if it eventually infects as many as the flu, the deaths from the coronavirus will dwarf that of the flu. The flu infects 5 million a year, and that's with a vaccine. With the same 5 million infected with corona, there would be approx 150,000 deaths, and 6 times greater than the flu. Like I said, there is also no vax for this one yet as well. The potential global health risk is quite high.
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