Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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Skarloey
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 01 2020 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 160 |
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Posted: March 12 2020 at 11:26am |
While countries around the world are making plans, cutting down on social gatherings and closing schools, the UK is just kicking the can down the street and / or scratching its arse, "Following the Science" "Never attribute to malice, what can easily be explained by incompetence" Why are we not acting. |
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Hazelpad
Adviser Group Joined: September 09 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6910 |
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Agree. Hours of discussions in their Cobra meeting and they come up with dont go on cruises and if your sick stay at home for 7 days, dont phone your doctor, then your safe to go back to work on day 7...oh and we arent doing countless tests anymore, no contact tracing, we will only use them to monitor purpose only. In Scotland they also decided to ban gatherings over 500...never mind the fact that my kids daily go into school with over 1000 pupils. They have jumped on the one study that says you may not be infectious after 7 days of symptoms. To top it off Trump banning flights from Europe except UK is nightmare for us as every person flying to America will now have to pass through a UK airport. Gutted by governments response and feel even more unsafe.
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purereason
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 29 2020 Status: Offline Points: 130 |
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Funny how we all see things in a different way I was quite impressed with the information offered and the explanations why these moves are being taken. To my simple mind it made perfect logical sense as a way to try to deal with things. If it works or not is to be seen but at least some thought has gone into the ideas. |
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Hazelpad
Adviser Group Joined: September 09 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6910 |
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I wasnt impressed with the 7 days after symptoms appear you can go to work again. I think this is flawed. No other country is taking this approach for numerous reasons. Didnt the superspreader cyclist that started the chain of events in Lombardy initially present to hospital on day 12 of his illness and infect 8 other patients and 2 doctors. Everyone us different immunologically and 7 days is not enough especially when the consequences can be dire. My work colleague is from Lombardy and she days people are getting well after about a week then relapse. A huge risk to take telling people to return after 7 days on the back of one study. Hz x |
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purereason
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 29 2020 Status: Offline Points: 130 |
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Just think at some point we have to let the people who have difficult decisions to make, make them. The information seemed to be based on studies of the information available. I would guess that there are different lengths for different people but I read it as in the main they feel 7 days is enough. It won't be foolproof but at least it seems thought has gone into it and not being led by gut feelings and such. All countries will only truly be tested on their response to this in hindsight. |
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Skarloey
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 01 2020 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 160 |
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Purereasson, that is what makes the world so rich and interesting i guess. I just think the narrative given to the UK public previously was/is so down played, it is hard to row back from in one go, i wonder if there will be movement on Monday or Tuesday. They should IMHO stopped sports events and mass gatherings. It would be interesting to know which science we are following v a lot of other countries?! |
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Hazelpad
Adviser Group Joined: September 09 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6910 |
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The article our government is responding to is not yet been accepted for print. It hasnt been peer reviewed and is a very small study. Until we see the data and cotrols I have no idea how they can act on it. It is so strange. It's just pretty unheard of for a science adviser to extrapolate his policy from a study that has not had proper scrutiny yet. On top of that he has taken the peak curve at 7 days but the study says 10 days. I think it's the fact we are so constrained in science by how we analyse our data. There are rules we must follow to maintain the integrity of the profession. What they did with this study, I.e. designed their policy around an unpublished study is tearing up the rule books. So excuse me for being tetchy I am so disappointed. Here is the study they are referring to for their policy. The only country adopting this 7 day rule. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-sheds-early-in-disease.html |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I have very mixed feelings. Some things our government is doing seem brilliant, others moronic. The problem could be simply that the scientists dissagree. Who do you believe? I have concluded, I'm on my own - well - me and my family - help from the government may be intended, but will not be available. I honestly believe our government is doing its best, putting people first and listening to the science. (Did anyone else notice how terrified Boris was? He controlled himself after a minute or two but at the start of his speech he was a panting rabbit-in-the-headlights.) On the whole they have told us the truth. But many actual policies seem shortsighted at best, outright DUMB at worst. Everything not utterly vital should be shut - not now - last week! 4 weeks till we match Italy? My arse! Two! SIP now if you can. For myself: Oxygen concentrators on order now. I was not going to bother, but changed my mind a couple of days ago. I will try to get antivirals when some consensus is reached on effectiveness. Protease inhibitors seem to work, but that is a class, not a specific drug. I am expecting to have to SIP for a year! A YEAR! That is a long time to see no one. Post is sprayed with disinfectant and left for hours. I wash and disinfect myself after opening the door or mailbox. (I stand in front of Hubby whom sprays my clothes with dettol) - That is in addition to using alcohol gel on my hands. I am no clean freak usually - I'm something of a sloven - but all the door handles are cleaned with avti-viral wipes after coming in with a parcel. This is DRAMATICALLY out of character. Even the recently-evicted spiders think I've gone mad (whole dynasties have lost their ancestral lands.). I disinfect the taps, alcohol-bottle squidgers and dettol bottle button. My mask and goggles hang on the door! Now you all know how paranoid I really am, How is the youngest, Hazel? |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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purereason
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 29 2020 Status: Offline Points: 130 |
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In fairness the reasoning behind the strategy was explained in some depth. If they can manage to push back and alter the peak period as they hope it will have been a quite astute move. The aim isn't to stop people dying as that's not achievable, the aim is to try and reduce the amount of people that have to die. There is no right or wrong at the moment due to such little knowledge of the virus. One thing for sure though is that they have far more data on this than us and it seems that science is leading the decisions |
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Newbie1A
Adviser Group Joined: January 26 2018 Location: Alberta Status: Offline Points: 11180 |
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Another take on this... I think not closing schools is a huge error myself. And I don't have kids to be dragging it home to me/grandma etc so not a 'biased' point of view (in that regard anyway). |
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If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Pandemic
Adviser Group Joined: January 31 2020 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 2725 |
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Reading inbetween the lines of his speech, I got the feeling that there maybe acceptance at the top level that it will sweep through the country whatever we do, apart from doing what we have been told. There maybe 10,000 case or so already, we just don't know. Apparently, someone returning to Poland from UK has gone down with it. IT is already here in large numbers !!. That's my interpretation |
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Pandemic
Adviser Group Joined: January 31 2020 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 2725 |
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purereason
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 29 2020 Status: Offline Points: 130 |
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Just talking about the school issue on another site The school issue is an interesting balance they trying to manage. As you say, if the kids are home then parents will have to be there to look after them as not ideal leaving them with grandparents. Also they mentioned the other day that quite a lot of nurses and doctors have kids, this would mean less medical staff where they were needed. |
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Hazelpad
Adviser Group Joined: September 09 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6910 |
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Of course it isnt to stop people being infected. It's about flattening and shifting the curve so the NHS can cope ( the same amount of people get infected but spread over a longer period). Or buying time for treatment options. The study trials are due to end in 6 weeks time, Chloroquinine is showing promise (I thought Boris played a blinder halting all exports of this out of UK a few weeks back), as are a few pancreatic drugs. At the moment though we are in exponential growth and the measures by our government are pretty lame. They are doing even less that Italy did when they were at this stage and we have nowhere near the bed capacity Italy have/had. We dont have enough ventilators. China has sent 1000 extra to Lombardy but we arent going to have a fairy godmother like that. China said that the young people start to show up about 3 weeks into the peak as they have struggled at home for a few weeks until they cant breath, old people succmber first and usually fill the hospitals and ICU beds up earlier on. They are saying now its half and half, it's not the old persons disease they expected, this is why they are having to make difficult decisions. Decisions that China made. There is also the ethical issue of sending people back onto public transport while they may still be infectious. Hz |
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purereason
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 29 2020 Status: Offline Points: 130 |
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I just think that the sooner people realise this is going to be bad the better. The government can only do what it feels is right for the country as a whole, not us as individuals. No matter how many beds or ventilators were available, it simply wouldn't be enough. It's no good venting anger at the people who are making the big decisions, it's as much on us as to take the appropriate actions needed to protect ourselves. At least the official info we are being given isn't sugar coated. |
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Glupa
Adviser Group Long term valued member Joined: January 28 2020 Location: SW Virginia Status: Offline Points: 1030 |
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When it comes to government pols and scientists, one is an educated liar and the other an educated guesser. Take that for what its worth. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Jacksdad's signature at the bottom of his posts says it all..... I took note of that Years ago..... Very wise..... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Hazelpad
Adviser Group Joined: September 09 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6910 |
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Did anyone notice our PM science advisors said in the press conference the mortality rate was 1%. Where did that come from. WHO said it was 2% and then 3.7% and Italy are at 5.6%. Are the UK just making that figure up I have never heard 1% fatality. Hz x |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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HIGH FIVE ..... JACKSDAD.... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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purereason
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 29 2020 Status: Offline Points: 130 |
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They clearly explained their reasoning for the 1% figure they came up with. Would be worth re watching the whole conference and take note when they explain why they come out with the information they offer |
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Hazelpad
Adviser Group Joined: September 09 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6910 |
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Once was enough for me thanks .😃 Let it go ..agree to disagree. |
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purereason
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 29 2020 Status: Offline Points: 130 |
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Fair enough, but nothing to let go really. You were questioning things and I was just trying to offer some answers for you Don't often say this but on this occasion I feel the UK government are being quite transparent and sharing the information they believe to be true. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Full marks to the UK government, Boris the Brave, Said WU is worst than the flu,and be prepared to lose loved ones Couldn't be more plain than that |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Hazelpad
Adviser Group Joined: September 09 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6910 |
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Hi Technophobe, Sorry just saw a few posts back you asked after my wee one. So Day 3: Better today, temp down. Oxygen levels stayed good. Still sore throat. Neutrophils are low when tested last week so was expecting a longer illness but is fine so far. Keeping everything crossed. He was very scared he is only 10. Today my daughters BF who has cystic fibrosis had been advised to leave school. She told her friends she was never going to make it through this. I personally am hopeful for CF patients, got acidic and salty mucus and coronavirus doesn't like this. 2 kids who are doing great on chemo have also left. My DH was around chemo wards today and they are all very down. Some of them so young but no immune systems. Human costs. Hz x |
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