Covid19 Numbers Not Correct

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   Nate Silver: 'Basic error' on coronavirus stories reveal media’s true goals
FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver said the mainstream media is not giving proper context to stories on the rise of coronavirus cases, which he calls a “basic error” that reveals an agenda to prioritize narratives that “sound smart” over accuracy and truth.
Silver was bothered that certain stories failed to mention that some growth in the coronavirus infection number is a result of an increase in testing.
“Not providing context on the increase in testing is such a basic error, and has been so widespread, that it's revealing about the media's goals. It's more interested in telling plausibly-true stories ("narratives") that sound smart to its audience than in accuracy/truth per se,” Silver said in response to author James Surowiecki calling out recent reports from Axios and The New York Times.
Nate Silver
✔@NateSilver538

Not providing context on the increase in testing is such a basic error, and has been so widespread, that it's revealing about the media's goals. It's more interested in telling plausibly-true stories ("narratives") that sound smart to its audience than in accuracy/truth per se. https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1258387113629880321 …
James Surowiecki
✔@JamesSurowiecki
Axios does a piece highlighting the growth in cases outside NY, and, just like the NYT, doesn't even mention the fact that at least some of that growth in recent weeks is the result of the sharp increase in testing. Just unbelievable.https://www.axios.com/us-coronavirus-italy-spain-reopening-cases-deaths-55ba1472-42a9-4806-bee0-ed50072f4326.html …

4,6508:34 AM - May 7, 2020
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“That doesn't mean it's just making stuff up or engaging in fake news,” Silver added. “On the contrary, the facts it relays are generally accurate in isolation. But the problems are in how facts are strung together and emphasized. Often there are sins of omission (e.g. no context on testing).”
Silver sent a third tweet noting that President Trump has “figured this out.”
“BTW, Trump has figured this out! By focusing on case counts, the media creates disincentives to do more testing because it makes the numbers look superficially worse. One reason (not the only one) why we're not pushing for testing as much as we should,” he wrote.

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Nate Silver
✔@NateSilver538

Replying to @NateSilver538

That doesn't mean it's just making stuff up or engaging in fake news. On the contrary, the facts it relays are generally accurate in isolation. But the problems are in how facts are strung together and emphasized. Often there are sins of omission (e.g. no context on testing).

1,0918:40 AM - May 7, 2020
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Nate Silver
✔@NateSilver538

Replying to @NateSilver538

BTW, Trump has figured this out! By focusing on case counts, the media creates disincentives to do more testing because it makes the numbers look superficially worse. One reason (not the only one) why we're not pushing for testing as much as we should.https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1258402445224484864?s=20 …
Jonathan Martin
✔@jmartNYT
A la the cruise ship >>

“He essentially made the same calculation on Wednesday by saying that more testing only reveals more infections and therefore increases the numbers. ‘In a way, by doing all this testing we make ourselves look bad,’ he said.”https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-recovery.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share …

55310:02 AM - May 7, 2020
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CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE
Mediaite noticed that Axios updated its story after Silver’s criticism.
“The tweet prompted at least one outlet to update a story to acknowledge that increases in testing have led to more cases being diagnosed,” Mediaite’s Rudy Takala wrote. “Axios subsequently updated the story linked in the exchange, noting, ‘This story has been updated to clarify that increased testing could be part of the reason the number of cases in the U.S. is rising.’
Mediaite then pointed out, “The New York Times on Monday published a story containing similar claims, titled, ‘As Trump pushes to reopen, government sees virus toll nearly doubling.’”

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FluMom Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695	Post Options Post Reply Quote FluMom Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Covid19 Numbers Not Correct Posted: May 08 2020 at 4:12pm
	Nate Silver: 'Basic error' on coronavirus stories reveal media’s true goals FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver said the mainstream media is not giving proper context to stories on the rise of coronavirus cases, which he calls a “basic error” that reveals an agenda to prioritize narratives that “sound smart” over accuracy and truth. Silver was bothered that certain stories failed to mention that some growth in the coronavirus infection number is a result of an increase in testing. “Not providing context on the increase in testing is such a basic error, and has been so widespread, that it's revealing about the media's goals. It's more interested in telling plausibly-true stories ("narratives") that sound smart to its audience than in accuracy/truth per se,” Silver said in response to author James Surowiecki calling out recent reports from Axios and The New York Times. Nate Silver ✔@NateSilver538 Not providing context on the increase in testing is such a basic error, and has been so widespread, that it's revealing about the media's goals. It's more interested in telling plausibly-true stories ("narratives") that sound smart to its audience than in accuracy/truth per se. https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1258387113629880321 … James Surowiecki ✔@JamesSurowiecki Axios does a piece highlighting the growth in cases outside NY, and, just like the NYT, doesn't even mention the fact that at least some of that growth in recent weeks is the result of the sharp increase in testing. Just unbelievable.https://www.axios.com/us-coronavirus-italy-spain-reopening-cases-deaths-55ba1472-42a9-4806-bee0-ed50072f4326.html … 4,650 8:34 AM - May 7, 2020 Twitter Ads info and privacy 1,768 people are talking about this REPORTER MOCKED AFTER URGING CITIZENS TO CALL 911 ON ICE CREAM MAN FOR ALLEGED CORONAVIRUS VIOLATION “That doesn't mean it's just making stuff up or engaging in fake news,” Silver added. “On the contrary, the facts it relays are generally accurate in isolation. But the problems are in how facts are strung together and emphasized. Often there are sins of omission (e.g. no context on testing).” Silver sent a third tweet noting that President Trump has “figured this out.” “BTW, Trump has figured this out! By focusing on case counts, the media creates disincentives to do more testing because it makes the numbers look superficially worse. One reason (not the only one) why we're not pushing for testing as much as we should,” he wrote. REPORT ON FACE MASKS' EFFECTIVENESS FOR COVID-19 DIVIDES SCIENTISTS Nate Silver ✔@NateSilver538 Replying to @NateSilver538 That doesn't mean it's just making stuff up or engaging in fake news. On the contrary, the facts it relays are generally accurate in isolation. But the problems are in how facts are strung together and emphasized. Often there are sins of omission (e.g. no context on testing). 1,091 8:40 AM - May 7, 2020 Twitter Ads info and privacy 258 people are talking about this Nate Silver ✔@NateSilver538 Replying to @NateSilver538 BTW, Trump has figured this out! By focusing on case counts, the media creates disincentives to do more testing because it makes the numbers look superficially worse. One reason (not the only one) why we're not pushing for testing as much as we should.https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1258402445224484864?s=20 … Jonathan Martin ✔@jmartNYT A la the cruise ship >> “He essentially made the same calculation on Wednesday by saying that more testing only reveals more infections and therefore increases the numbers. ‘In a way, by doing all this testing we make ourselves look bad,’ he said.”https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-recovery.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share … 553 10:02 AM - May 7, 2020 Twitter Ads info and privacy 190 people are talking about this CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE Mediaite noticed that Axios updated its story after Silver’s criticism. “The tweet prompted at least one outlet to update a story to acknowledge that increases in testing have led to more cases being diagnosed,” Mediaite’s Rudy Takala wrote. “Axios subsequently updated the story linked in the exchange, noting, ‘This story has been updated to clarify that increased testing could be part of the reason the number of cases in the U.S. is rising.’ Mediaite then pointed out, “The New York Times on Monday published a story containing similar claims, titled, ‘As Trump pushes to reopen, government sees virus toll nearly doubling.’”

EdwinSm, Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065	Post Options Post Reply Quote EdwinSm, Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: May 08 2020 at 11:02pm
	The latest Case Fatality rate for the USA has risen to just over 6%. [1,248,040 cases, 75,477 deaths]. This means that either the corvid-19 complications are now more deadly than the initial reports from China (suggesting around 0.67% for the Infection Fatality Rate); or that there is massive under-testing. Using the IFR figures from China, one should multiply the confirmed cases by 9 to get an estimation of the true infection rate. That means over 11,000,000 should have been infected. Unfortunately, that is only about 3% of the population, so this little show has a long way to go. Of course if the IFR is higher (and data from Europe is pointing in that direction) then fewer people will have been infected than the above estimate shows, and this show has longer to run.

Pixie Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: June 05 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 19668	Post Options Post Reply Quote Pixie Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: May 09 2020 at 3:17pm
	https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-death-toll-d8ba60a4-316b-4d1e-8595-74970c15fb34.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/trump-is-about-to-go-full-coronavirus-death-denier.html