Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Future population reduction in UK? |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Posted: November 09 2021 at 2:09am |
Feeling in a dark mood I plotted out a scenario of how repeated waves of new variants of Covid-19 and the effects of Long-Covid, plus the stress on health systems meaning other conditions could not be properly treated. In this scenario the current UK population growth slows and turns into a decline in the middle of the decade. I stopped my self then, "Was I been over dramatic? Was I being overtly pessimistic?" I know that the UK has been hard hit, with a death rate (for just those who died within 28 days of contracting the virus) of 2,075/million (0.2%). This in itself is not enough to turn the population growth negative, especially as the growth was around 0.6% a year. I then delved more deeply into the official statistics (from the Office for National Statistics). These turned in a number of interesting facts for the year 2020. First. The number of births continues to fall with a decline of 4.14% . Second. The number of deaths leapt over 14% to a record high, [the increase in the number of deaths was more than attributed to Covid-19.] Third. The effect of falling birth numbers and rising deaths meant that the Natural Growth (births - deaths) turn negative for the first time in 44 years, This turned a growth of 107,903 into a decline of 6,438. Of course the population continued to increase due to immigration (although with Brexit and lock-down travel restrictions there was some confusion as to the actual number as certain statistics were no longer collected). If births keep falling, and the death rate keeps being high, and delayed treatment for other illnesses starts to translate into early deaths, then there seems to be a chance that i was not being overly negative in the idea that UK population might decline in the middle of the decade. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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The thing is Edwin, We in have to reduce the population, All this talk about carbon neutral is garbage, We humans are causing climate change, the only way to change it is to reduce the population, Anything else means millions out of work starvation , disease....... Sorry just being a realist......... Take care all 😷😉💉 PS just watching an activist from cop26 ,she wants a family and her kids deserve life like she has had....!!!!!!???? Not going to happen if you want action on climate change...... The woke need to WAKE UP....... No air travel,no cars,no sporting events,no work.....no electricity,all those things are killing the planet....... Oh dear what to do....!!!??? |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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I would really like to have grandchildren....but my children are playing their part in the reduced birth rate. I know that there will have to be significant population reduction. I just hope that it can happen in a gradual and not too painful way [unlike Afghanistan, where they say 95% of the population do not have enough food ahead of winter closing in.] However, letting covid sweep through the population time and time again does not seem a pleasant way to reduce population. A dropping birthrate seems a less painful way to go, except when there are not enough working aged people to pay my pension From the stats the UK had a fertility rate in 2019 of 1.84.but, according to one news paper article I found, it had dropped to 1.58 in 2020, which is also a very significant drop (14%). |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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I have grandchildren, When I start thinking too much ,it scares me to hell that I won't be able to help them....I'll be long gone..... But with luck ill be able to teach them how to survive...... before I leave this mortal coil..... Take care all 😷😉💉 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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