| PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL |
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| Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
"Nu" variant (Botswana/B.1.1.529) |
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Dutch Josh 
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95387 |
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 Topic: "Nu" variant (Botswana/B.1.1.529)Posted: November 26 2021 at 1:58am |
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[url]https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker[/url] or https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker ; 84 LOCATION South Africa77 (990)Source Botswana4-Source Hong Kong2-Source Israel1 (2)Source TBD=() 84 (992) DJ see link for updates... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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carbon20
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Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 2:06am |
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The worry here is Hong Kong.... How did it get there how many on plane ,where have they traveled on too ? Take care all 😷😉💉 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95387 |
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 2:36am |
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carbon 20...It is far beyond "just" 1 case in Hong Kong...most likely allready 3 cases in vaccinated people from Israel travelling via Malawi... Only "good news" is deletion of segment 69/70 like the UK/Alfa variant had may make detection easier....the bad news is we may find out high speed there could be "many thousends" of this "Nu-variant" allready all over the planet !!! Some info from [url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam (DJ-Twitter is exploding over "Nu" !) Analysis of the mutations: Resistance to current antibodies due to multiple mutations in the spike protein. Enhanced transmissibility Evasion of immunity Increased infectivity The genetic analysis of the new variant (from over 100 genomes) shows that it has 30 mutations in the spike protein. In the receptor binding area Beta had 3, Delta had 2, B.1.1.529 has 10, just in the receptor binding domain. The estimated R value of the local increase is 1.93, significantly larger than the national value (1.47). DJ So the R value of this Nu-variant in SA spread went up ! Gauteng is a small province containing Johanesburg, the largest city in South Africa. The Test positivity has been at about 1% and is still at 1% in much of the province, but one area, Tshwane, has part with positivity at 30%. This increase happened within two weeks. -
DJ...I am taking a break...this is bad !!!! Airborne spread was known...but spread over meters, tests missing it at first (partly due to 69/70 del.) and simply jumping over Pfizer vaccination (like in Israel cases) would need a total change of "defense plans"... Without wanting to cause major panic...most likely there could be tens-of-thousends of cases all around the globe...we just missed it... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95387 |
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 3:32am |
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Belgium just reported two "possible cases".... Israel ; [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-warns-israel-entering-emergency-situation-over-new-covid-19-strain/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-warns-israel-entering-emergency-situation-over-new-covid-19-strain/ ; Hebrew-language media reports said a woman suspected of being infected with the variant took a bus from central Israel to the southern city of Eilat, where she works at a hotel. Police located her there and sent her to be tested further and questioned by medical officials. DJ So not only spread during flight, but also bustravel in Israel and (possibly) while working in an Eilat hotel.... [url]https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/new-covid-variant-spreads-to-israel-first-case-of-nu-strain-detected/news-story/13a7921d88fdb87a69af61b3a40921fe[/url] or https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/new-covid-variant-spreads-to-israel-first-case-of-nu-strain-detected/news-story/13a7921d88fdb87a69af61b3a40921fe ; Israel has recorded its first confirmed case of the new Covid variant, B.1.1.529, after a traveller entered the country via a flight from Malawi, a country in southeastern Africa. This is the third case of the new highly mutated strain that’s been recorded outside of Africa, after two cases were detected in Hong Kong. The transmission was confirmed by Israel’s Ministry of Health which is currently investigating the patient’s contacts. Authorities also fear two more returnees from Malawi may have contracted the variant, however the results are pending genetic sequencing. Currently, all three travellers are in isolation. “In all three cases, they are vaccinated and their immunisation details are currently being verified,” read statement from the Ministry. - On Thursday, a case of the B.1.1.529 strain was found in Hong Kong in a traveller undertaking hotel quarantine. The traveller returned the positive result on the fourth day of quarantine after two tests. Reports suggest they were infected by a guest from across the hallway who had tested positive on their eighth day of quarantine after four PCR tests. Both cases had received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine. DJ So the first HK-case arrived in Hong Kong on monday-went into quarantine... The SA cases have been exploding for two weeks...a lot of travel has been going on...Passengers now arriving from SA region will face testing at least...possibly forced quarantine... [url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam ; New variant = new pandemic DJ May be-in short-the best description of this crisis... Australia does not think this new variant will make a difference for vaccine-protection..... [url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ; A friend arrived in London this morning on one of the last flights from South Africa. Health officials met the plane, but no additional precautions are being taken for the hundreds of passengers. The flight came from Gauteng - the province where the new variant was identified. Fresh cases being imported into the UK ! B.1.1.529 seems to have gone from 0.1% to 50% in just a couple of weeks, when it took Delta several months to achieve that... Not looking good ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95387 |
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 5:08am |
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[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ; Holy crap- Just updated the model to include Nu. If these data are correct, Nu would have a 500% advantage over Delta. If that is true, god help us. DJ....It is good countries are limiting travel to/from Southern Africa but the variant was first detected in Botswana, is spreading in South Africa but may well have its origins elsewhere... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1529-a-%E2%80%98serious-concern%E2%80%99-in-south-africa?view=stream latest; It appears that the index case at the Regal Airport Hotel didn't follow quarantine procedures... - Israel has identified four cases of the B.1.1.529 variant, all recent travellers. One case, a 32-year-old woman returning from South Africa, was triple vaccinated with Pfizer and had her 3rd dose just two months ago. DJ Waiting for more info... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Tabitha111
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Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 5:31am |
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I am guessing we will see or hear about cases in the US by Sunday. |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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roni3470
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Joined: August 30 2006 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 5390 |
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 7:38am |
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I am seeing posts that it affects younger people but can't seem to find the article to see what they are considering younger.....anyone know? Also, the shock over this new variant seems scarier than that past probably because it came from Africa, but how much of this do you think is warranted compared to just people being nervous? We all have opinions but lets try to look at this as a whole 2 year scenario. There have been plenty of times that new variants were a concern and they turned out to be nothing. I know, this is different but I just want some really objective opinions and deeper thoughts on what could happen here. Thanks all! |
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NOW is the Season to Know
that Everything you Do is Sacred |
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carbon20
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Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 8:01am |
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I'm thinking the very low vacciation rates in Africa ,was a recipe for disaster........ Let's hope it's turns out to be the harmless one we all hope it is ..... Else we in deep s..t Don't think the hospital staff could stand it ........each one deserves a medal Take care all 😷😉💉 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95387 |
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 8:15am |
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DJ-SA statistics going up about 14 days ago...NL cases exploded to over 20,000 10 days ago...lots of western Europe cases started going up AFTER SA/Nu variant started increasing there...proberbly also-in statistics-there would be a hint for US cases going up... Sequencing can take up to two weeks-as far as I understand it...So "the picture may have changed" in these two weeks...With possibly tens of thousends "Nu-like variants" allready in Europe (causing the increase there...Delta-variants were believed to be the reason...we may be wrong...) and thousends of them in the US... If the "R" of "Nu" is 50% above Delta we are talking about a variant with-possibly an R0 of 12..... [url]https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker[/url] or https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker now also has the first Belgian case...(linked to travel from Egypt ?), Denmark reporting possible cases ? In vaccinated ? The picture of this pandemic may make this a Black Friday indeed... [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; We have learned a lot today from anecdotal reports. It's spreading internationally at least since Nov 11. Most positives were vaccinated, one even boosted 2 months ago. Equally infects young & old. Variable latent & incubation period. Reports quote low Ct, i.e. high viral load. - Here are data from one of 's papers (Fig 5 of https://science.org/doi/10.1126/scitranslmed.abi9915…) showing that a K417-G446-E484 triple mutant sometimes but not always fully escapes neutralization by RBD-targeted antibodies, and effect is worse for convalescent than mRNA-1273 vaccine sera. - Als antwoord op The Israeli Ministry of Health announced that it updated PCR testing to distinguish between Delta and Nu. We are already discussing shutting down the entire school system here. I think vaccine efficacy against Nu will be announced in Israel soon if it is not contained. - Belgium's first case of new COVID variant is a young, unvaccinated woman who returned from Egypt on Nov. 11 and developed symptoms 11 days later - RTBF 11 days after returning from Egypt?! Belgium! 11 days! Egypt! Yep, it's ev erywhere. If incoming travelers aren't screened on arrival & then quarantined, there's no way a country can stop Nu's introduction. How many countries have this protocol ready & implemented? Anyone built enough proper quarantine facilities? (oh, yes, China) Secured enough testing capacity? If incoming travelers aren't screened on arrival & then quarantined, there's no way a country can stop Nu's introduction. How many countries have this protocol ready & implemented? Anyone built enough proper quarantine facilities? (oh, yes, China) Secured enough testing capacity? d DJ We have only seen the tip of the iceberg yet... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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EdwinSm,
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 9:25am |
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Also found in Belgium. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770
I has been well spread around before being found. |
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Pixie
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 10:16am |
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The WHO declaration comes amid warnings of the new B.1.1.529 variant which experts have warned could pose a risk to vaccine efficacy. David Nabarro, special envoy on Covid-19 for the World Health Organisation, told BBC News: “Really it is appropriate to be concerned about this – I tell you why. “The virus looks like it will have greater capacity to evade the defences that we’ve all built up as a result of the vaccinations we’ve received since the beginning of this year, and that is a concern because that would then mean, it’s a bit like having to reset the dial and to go back and start dealing with a totally new pandemic all over again, we have to treat it as a new virus, so that’s the concern.” |
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Pixie
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 10:51am |
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The WHO has said it will take weeks to understand how the variant may impact diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines. “There are two approaches to what happens next: wait for more scientific evidence — or act now and row back later if it wasn’t required,” said Sharon Peacock, professor of public health and microbiology at the University of Cambridge. “I believe that it is better to ‘go hard, go early and go fast’ and apologise if mistaken, than to take an academic view that we need to reach a tipping point in evidence before action is taken. Rapid spread in South Africa could be due to super-spreader events or other factors. But there are sufficient red flags to assume the worst rather than hope for the best — and take a precautionary approach. |
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ksc
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 11:18am |
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CRS, DrPH
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Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 11:45am |
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Time for some realism.... Thanks to low vaccination rates worldwide, SARS-CoV2 has been allowed to smolder and break out like the forest fires we see on the TV news. Each time this virus goes through a major genetic shift (mutation), our preparations go out the window. New vaccines will need to be developed for the mutated spike protein. People who already had DELTA and recovered are at risk of yet another COVID infection. The natural reservoir for influenza virus is primarily birds (waterfowl). The new natural reservoir for COVID-19 is the human body. This is a very good article on the topic: |
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CRS, DrPH
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roni3470
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Posted: November 26 2021 at 11:49am |
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I read the R was 1.9 compared to Detla 1.4 so although bad, not too crazy bad! If it turns out to be correct that is! |
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NOW is the Season to Know
that Everything you Do is Sacred |
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Europe has identified its first case of the variant in Belgium. The Guardian reports that the case emerged in an unvaccinated young woman who had recently travelled from Egypt via Turkey and developed mild flu symptoms 11 days later.