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Dutch Josh 
Adviser Group 
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95207 |
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 Posted: April 23 2022 at 11:25pm |
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DJ, Part 1, Eastern Europe, When you look at the international situation you can choose lots of angles-ask all kinds of questions. From short term-more local ones, to long term global perspectives and look for parallels in how governments deal with other crises. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXYI5UL5SGQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXYI5UL5SGQ Alexander Mercouris/AM; UK's Johnson Admits 'Russia May Win in Ukraine', EU Capitulates and Agrees to Gas for Roubles News Topic 474 Yellen: European ban on Russian energy may do more harm than good https://thehill.com/policy/finance/32... Ukraine war: Revitalised Russia can still win, western intelligence warns https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk... Control over Donbass to provide for ground corridor to Crimea, says military commander https://tass.com/world/1441591 DJ, One missunderstanding that keeps going on in some of the "western media" is Russia wants to occupy land...Taking US wars a.o. in Iraq as a basis for comparison. As AM keeps repeating; that is NOT the Russian strategy. Russia wants security at its borders...would like a government in Ukraine able to give that security... From that perspective the idea is to combine talks with fighting...a 19th century idea ([url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_von_Clausewitz#Theory_of_war[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_von_Clausewitz#Theory_of_war) DJ-my opinion; the "biden-war" in Ukraine has become a US(NATO) -Russia/Asia proxy war -Ukraine as a battleground for a PLANNED ! battle in a much wider conflict. The "west" did send in military goods/training since 2014. Ukraine shelling of the Donbas did provide Russia the reason for intervention. I wonder if Russia did expect the "Ukraine police action" would escalate towards-close to-world war three. In history #1-nation having to give up its position to another-so far always went with war...In this case the US is #1, Russia-China/Asia want to take over that position...(the EU never had that ambition...). AM mentions "false flags"; possibly even small nuclear weapons being used...AM hopes we may not see such an escalation. DJ-I "hope" this war will stop today...But the #1-the US-does need escalation ! [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/intel-10-ton-ammonia-tank-odessa-easter-sunday[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/intel-10-ton-ammonia-tank-odessa-easter-sunday ; The Intelligence Community is abuzz with reports - all unconfirmed -- that some type of chemical attack is being planned against Odessa, Ukraine. It is CLAIMED that this attack is being set up by the Ukrainian SBU (Secret Police) to take place on Orthodox Easter Sunday (Tomorrow) and to be blamed on Russia. "The most likely scenario of the staging may be an imitation of a missile strike by the Russian Armed Forces on the western naval base of the Ukrainian Navy, as a result of which the port's cooling plant, located 500 meters from the military facility, will be blown up. To implement this scenario, a tank with ammonia (10 tons) was delivered from Odessa to the territory of the enterprise on April 18, 2022, and personal protective equipment was issued to law enforcement and special services in the Odessa region."
MORE: Employees of the SBU and the special services of Great Britain (SAS) are allegedly the ones preparing this attack for Lisichansk, where Western journalists have arrived. DJ; this is what "total war" looks like...A propaganda war (like Assad in Syria "bombing hundreds of hospitals" in Aleppo...how many hospitals are there in that old town ???). The US-biden goal is US war with Russia.... [url]https://southfront.org/poland-preparing-for-war/[/url] or https://southfront.org/poland-preparing-for-war/ ; Poland completes the operational deployment of troops in the Kaliningrad direction. The Polish Army has deployed an auxiliary command post of the 16th Mechanised Division in the Kaliningrad direction (Ozysh, 60 kilometres from the Russian border). - The 16th MiD of the Polish Army has already deployed command posts near the Belarusian border in December last year. - The operational structure of Polish troop groups today is as follows: 16th Md – Grodno and Kaliningrad Districts, 12th Md – Volkovyssk, 11th Brd – Brest, 18th Md and 6th Vdbr – Lvov directions. Earlier, Russian sources reported that the Polish Armed Forces started to establish a strike group on the territory of Romania. In the near future, a consolidated contingent is planned to enter Moldovan territory under a plausible pretext, such as a humanitarian operation or an official government request. One of the development options of the Polish leadership’s plan is to create an advanced bridgehead on the territory of Moldova to promptly take control of Transnistria and deploy a “peacekeeping contingent” on the territory of the Odessa region. Such plans had been hatching for a long time, but in connection with the announcement of the objectives of the second phase of the special military operation of the Russian Armed Forces, a decision was made to force them. DJ See also [url]https://southfront.org/washington-the-biggest-winner-in-division-between-europe-and-russia/[/url] or https://southfront.org/washington-the-biggest-winner-in-division-between-europe-and-russia/ US goal; stop EurAsian integration...Push Europe into poverty so the US can overtake the Asian market...DJ-Not very realistic...but if you think you can maintain the #1 position... [url]http://heartlandprogressive.blogspot.com/[/url] or http://heartlandprogressive.blogspot.com/ ; Ask a hundred Americans and you’ll be lucky to find even one who’s ever heard of Minsk II. But ask those same Americans how the Ukraine war started, and you’ll like get ‘Russian President Putin woke up one day and decided to re-establish the Soviet empire, starting with Ukraine. That is because our government and its slavishly loyal media have created a false narrative for maximum propaganda to support pouring billions in weaponry into the Ukraine war zone, ensuring that death and destruction will proceed endlessly. Minsk II was the 2015 agreement hammered out by Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany to end the civil war in Ukraine between the pro west, ultra nationalist government and the pro Russian Ukrainians in the eastern Donbas provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk. and [url]https://news.antiwar.com/2022/04/22/russian-general-suggests-moscow-could-seize-ukraines-entire-coast-create-link-to-transnistria/[/url] or https://news.antiwar.com/2022/04/22/russian-general-suggests-moscow-could-seize-ukraines-entire-coast-create-link-to-transnistria/ ; A Russian deputy military commander said Moscow could seize Ukraine’s Black Sea coast to create a corridor to a breakaway region of Moldova. On Friday, Rustam Minnekaev, acting commander of Russia’s Central Military District, said, "control over the south of Ukraine is another way to Transnistria, where there is also evidence that the Russian-speaking population is being oppressed." He added, "One of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine.” DJ; AM thinks the Russian goal by this statement (going for Black Sea coast control) is to put extra pressure on the Kiev-regime... My opinion; IF zelensky only is a US puppet and IF Ukraine is just one battleground in a much larger conflict then; -Ukraine-Russian talks may be pointless; we need US-Russia/China talks -Being open on next goals may bring Moldova, "a Polish peace force in Odessa" etc. I think Russia did not plan to occupy most/all of Ukraine but it may find no realistic alternative. The US puppet-regime will try to keep escalating and with that end EU-Asia plans...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-nato-cyber-war-escalating-fast[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-nato-cyber-war-escalating-fast The "East-West-War" only will get much worse on the short term... DJ-One may think of a conflict in different levels; friendly disagreement on some minor points-not in the way of cooperation may be "mild". (a "1" on a conflictscale)..total disagreement on about everything-end of talking-total war is the worst kind of scenario...(a "10" on a conflictscale). US-Russia conflict now at "9", EU-Russia now at "7"... Going wider; US-Iran, US-North Korea maybe also at "6"? With 5+ meaning armed conflict, cyberwar...US-China maybe by now also going to "6"...US-India "4"... End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95207 |
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Posted: April 23 2022 at 11:47pm |
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part 2, International conflicts; AM mentions [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/eu-commission-us-submit-to-reality-.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/eu-commission-us-submit-to-reality-.html EU countries now paying-in Euro's-to Gazprom-Bank, that exchanges those Euro's in Rubles for payment of Russia energy export to the EU. I think AM is correct that-when the present contracts end-new contracts for Russian energy will be in Rubles... [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/22/netherlands-stop-purchasing-russian-gas-end-year[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/22/netherlands-stop-purchasing-russian-gas-end-year ; The Cabinet intends to completely phase out all purchases of Russian gas, oil and coal by the end of the year, said Rob Jetten, the climate and energy minister. The supply of gas kept in storage facilities will be bolstered as much as possible in time for next year. About 15 percent of gas consumed in the Netherlands originates in Russia. Jetten made the announcement while speaking with journalists after the weekly Council of Ministers meeting. He said the government will offer incentives to companies to help stock up on gas, including the possibility of compensating companies who get stuck with the high purchase price of gas now, should that price fall before the fuel is consumed. Even without the energy companies' participation, the state-owned firm, Energie Beheer Nederland, will attempt to guarantee that the gas storage facility in Bergermeer is filled to at least 70 percent of its capacity. DJ, NL has limited energy trade-for NL use-with Russia however the ports (Rotterdam, Amsterdam etc.) are a major energy-hub for Europe. So-on the short term NL will buy EXTRA Russian gas for storage at three storage facilities...(a problem is one of them is rented by Gazprom...). [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tbgMKk0bEM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tbgMKk0bEM WION-India; Recently, U.S. lectured India to not increase the purchase of Russian oil. Turns out, the West itself is secretly buying Russian oil. Russian tankers have begun disappearing from radar. Are these tankers carrying oil to European ports? DJ "the west" is telling other countries to stop doing trade with Russia-in the mean time increasing short term energy trade with Russia (and even-still-selling military goods; communication, infra-red night vision etc-to Russia...). AM mentions "the west" does not seem to have any long term strategy in this conflict...DJ I think the west is very divided... [url]https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220424-live-polls-open-across-france-as-macron-and-le-pen-vie-for-french-presidency[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220424-live-polls-open-across-france-as-macron-and-le-pen-vie-for-french-presidency DJ-Today the second round of the French presidential elections...Macron did get 27% of the votes in round 1. nationalist Le Pen did get 23%...for most of the French both candidates are "right wing" ...A left wing candidate did get 22% of the votes...It is expected most of the left wing votes will now not vote... DJ-Maybe 40% of the French voters may cast their vote...and that in itself is bad ! In many western countries there is a major political crisis...The US now against !!!! EU stopping oil-imports from Russia because of the inflation it would bring...US mid-term elections already look like a coming disaster for the US "democrats"...(DJ-much more a disaster for the US voter...). [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/the-rules-based-order-knows-no-distance.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/the-rules-based-order-knows-no-distance.html The Solomons Islands did sign a treaty with China...Eventhough the US claims countries should be able to make their own choices...a treaty with China is not welcome...India, China, Pakistan still doing trade with Russia "is a wrong choice"...so the US respects other countries-but only if they follow US orders... The #US found the best way to impoverish #Europe:
US separates the EU from #Russia; cuts Russian gas/oil supply to sell the more expensive US gas (Europeans pay the difference); provides #Ukraine w/ weapons; forces the EU to accept Ukraine as a member; EU reconstructs Ukraine. The worst European enemy is the #US. Unfortunately, many Europeans don't think so because they are not or ill informed. DJ My conclusions for today; The US did not only push Ukraine under a Russian tank but is also-at least trying to-push the EU into poverty...so it may "stay #1" itself...However this East-West conflict is more and more showing it is the-divided-west that is isolated. China, India others will get cheaper Russian energy to outcompete "the west"... Russia, China did see this conflict coming-for decades...somehow "the west" started the conflict and expected "sanctions" would damage Russia that much it would give in... Well "the west" was very wrong...now slowly start to realize that part of the sanction wars... The west did realy believe "Ukraine-NATO standard army" did "beat the Russians" near Kiev...Wrong again ! Using the western-standards does not fit the Russian strategy... So the outcome for now; military Ukraine army is destroyed bit by bit each day..but also western economies are suffering more each day... Western "answer" is repeating escalation and hope for a better outcome...insanity...Most likely Macron will win the French elections but the EU can not go on with the sanction war(s) that much longer...Companies make up their minds; why stay in the EU if those countries end up with much to high energy prices, an older population and Asia; cheap energy, young-much larger-population is just around the corner... We-here in Europe-are asked to pay for saving the US$...DJ-It may be time for a "good talk"! The EU does not want regime change in Russia, had some hope for the Euro to become a sort of global success...but that EU is being destroyed (nothing else) now by the US for US interests... Maybe now EU-"leaders" can get away with hysteria...but high inflation, mass unemployment, a growing health, housing, public sector crisis will bring other "leaders"... The "US idea" of a "short conflict" ending Russia as a major power via sanctions and a war in Ukraine turns out to be a disaster for the west... DJ-I would welcome more European cooperation-away from the US-since European interests and US interests are not the same...We are moving towards a world with multiple "blocs"...the EU could be one of them..(maybe including UK, Australia/New Zealand, Canada in some form). TIP, Turkey-Iran-Pakistan is another "bloc" maybe we can work with them as well-and find a balance between Russia-China and the US... The main reason for RIC, Russia-Iran-China cooperation is the US "sanction war" as "foreign policy"...If the US is unable to understand what diplomacy is then that is a US problem... Sometimes expansion comes before collapse; NATO expansion may signal the end for NATO in this form...Larger is not always better...goes also for the EU... However-in the short term I expect further escalation of war...not only in eastern Europe but also in the Middle East, Africa, SE Asia...I hope not to see "world war 3"...but we are not that far away from such a disaster...Maybe realizing how close we are to global conflict may stop that global war...no sane person should even want that... End of part 2 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95207 |
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Posted: April 25 2022 at 12:08am |
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DJ [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0PRuFx-4P8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0PRuFx-4P8 Alexander Mercouris/AM ; Ukraine Reported Considering Withdrawals in Northern Donbass Because of Heavy Russian Shelling News Topic 475 My reaction, somehow the US sticks to the idea that by keeping this Ukraine-war going the US will remain the global #1...I think that is an illusion. In France Macron did win the presidential elections; Le Pen did not bring the surprise/change...neither for France, or the EU or global situation. A little less then 80% of the voters did vote (here in NL that would be seen as very much). But most of the votes were not in support of one candidate but more against the other candidate...So one may wonder if these elections contribute to any solutions... Macron is pro EU, pro NATO...so in fact pro Ukraine war continuation... [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/my-energy-your-problem-birth-new-europe[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/my-energy-your-problem-birth-new-europe ; This day has been a long time coming. From the moment, more than a decade ago, when it was finally admitted that Europe was destined to be an energy importer, we were going to see the climax of the showdown between the West and Russia. Europe as energy importer always meant that time was on Russia’s side. All it had to do was draw the conflict out long enough, survive long enough, to force Europe into submission. Russia has the energy Europe needs, no one else can supply it, therefore the final decision will be to accept this fate. DJ. the EU-idea was Russia would need Euro's even more then the EU would need Russian energy...times change...A welcome outcome of higher energy prices will be more innovation to do much more with much less energy... When I look at my own house; electricity=solar, heating is from garbage burning in a plant nearby-the warmth of it used in urban heating/warm water. My consumption of Russian/Arab fossil fuel is mainly indirect; in the goods/food I buy...A bike has the rider as its motor... I hope there will be put much more energy in renewal, bicycle-lanes etc. Here in NL cars are increasing-because of the pandemic people use public transport much less... [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-much-are-we-prepared-sacrifice-help-us-win-propaganda-war-against-putin[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-much-are-we-prepared-sacrifice-help-us-win-propaganda-war-against-putin ; Free speech is important not because it's nice to be able to say what you want, but because the free flow of ideas and information creates a check on the powerful. It gives people the ability to hold the powerful to account. Which is exactly why the powerful work to eliminate it. We should see it as a huge, huge problem that so much of the world has been herded onto these giant monopolistic speech platforms that conduct censorship in complete alignment with the mightiest power structure in the world. This is the exact opposite of putting a check on power. How much are we as a society willing to give up for the US government and its allies to win a propaganda war against Putin? Are we willing to commit to being a civilization for which the primary consideration with any piece of data is not whether or not it's true, but whether it helps undermine Russia? This is a conversation which should already have been going on in mainstream circles for some time now, but it never even started. Let's start it. DJ, reality-by definition-has to be very complex. There is no absolute truth; lots of things are "perspectives"...Why we are so close to global war is also complex-with lots of gray...and in my opinion the most important thing is to get out of these wars... War means people trying to kill, destroy other people...there are lots of pictures from battlefields...the oldest go back to the US civil war (DJ did the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_Purchase[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_Purchase of 1803, fast economic growth of the north-east US result in a "brake" because growth went to fast ? Did expansion of both EU and NATO go to fast-resulting in the present crisis ? Speed more a factor-a more slow growth would have limited the risks ?) · Novorosinform REPORTED: About 20 fighters of the special airborne service of #British sabotage instructors arrived in Western #Ukraine in #Lviv,announced by the military commander of the all-#Russian state Television & Radio Broadcasting company. DJ The west getting more and more involved in the "Ukraine-biden-war" against Russia [url]https://mobile.twitter.com/ejmalrai?lang=nl[/url] or https://mobile.twitter.com/ejmalrai?lang=nl with lots of examples...the outcome of this process is an open NATO-Russia war...wich has to escalate even further in many more wars...from Korea/China to Latin America... [url]https://southfront.org/bryansk-region-of-russia-attacked-by-ukraine-breaking-video/[/url] or https://southfront.org/bryansk-region-of-russia-attacked-by-ukraine-breaking-video/ ; On the night of 24-25 April, the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out strikes on civilian infrastructure located in Russia’s Bryansk Region. The Druzhba oil depot near Bryansk was engulfed in flames. Residents report that there were two loud explosions before the fire started. The second strike targeted a military facility within the city limits, where the depot of the complex storage base is located. Is another escalation...AM mentioned Ukraine keeping its military in impossible positions for negotiations...while talks have stopped... This also is only getting worse... |
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