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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

january 2023 updates

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 01 2023 at 5:11am

January 1, I hope this year will see an end to both wars and healthcrises...in such a way most of us survive...For that matter best wishes !

We did start '23 with a gigantic gap between "mass media" almost claiming there is no healthcrisis and reality...several countries facing almost collapse of healthcare...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/lions/canada-two-lions-test-positive-for-sars-cov-2-at-calgary-zoo/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/lions/canada-two-lions-test-positive-for-sars-cov-2-at-calgary-zoo/

Two female lions have tested positive for Covid in Calgary Zoo, Canada, with other animals in the zoo also displaying symptoms.

2 female zoo lions tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after an episode of mild respiratory disease. 2 male lions also developed clinical signs 48 hours later but were not tested. One of 2 Amur tigers and one of 2 Pallas cats also developed similar clinical signs, neither was confirmed positive to SARS-CoV-2. All cats were previously vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 and all have recovered.

SARS-CoV-2 has been found to have naturally infected 34 species of 11 different taxonomic orders. 

The order Carnivora is particularly susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. The pandemic virus has been confirmed so far in carnivores of 6 families, canids (dogs, raccoon dogs and red fox), felids (cats, tigers, lions, puma/cougar, leopard, snow leopard, Canada lynx, Eurasian lynx, bobcat and Fishing cat), mustelids (ferrets, minks and small clawed otter), viverrids (binturongs), procyonids (coatimundis), and hyenids (hyenas). In addition, skunks (Mephitidae) were found to be susceptible to experimental infection. In most cases infections are subclinical or mild, but there are some reports of deaths attributable to COVID-19.

Promed report

 

** Reports of Covid infections in animals (excluding deer) have become less common since the Omicron variant became dominant worldwide. This is the first report of a Covid infection in a lion we have seen since January 2022. 

DJ, I wonder if the claim "only" 34 species so far did see CoViD-19 infections is correct...Would have to look for other links to see what numbers they provide...Also CoViD-19 in one species (a.o. cats, dogs) see very limited spread (and with that variants...). Other species (minks...rats/mice ??? ferrets ???) may see much more spread-lots of variants...

The "34 species" may be referring to "main species"-a higher number may include subspecies ??? [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/animals/other-animals/covid-in-animals-review-updated-part-7-cattle/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/animals/other-animals/covid-in-animals-review-updated-part-7-cattle/ tried to make sense of these stories...A problem may be in testing these animals-via blood samples ? Their droppings ? Farm animals have economic importance, so there may be economic reasons on limiting reporting of CoViD in (farm)animals....Birds are a.o. known to have seen (other) corona-virus infections...

Spread in animals, co-infections with several CoViD-variants and/or other diseases only worsens the health crisis....

-[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-york-covid-19-news-new-york-welcomes-2023-with-debut-of-new-recombinant-variant-involving-xbb1-5-and-bq-1-14[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-york-covid-19-news-new-york-welcomes-2023-with-debut-of-new-recombinant-variant-involving-xbb1-5-and-bq-1-14 and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news:-sars-cov-2-presents-its-2023-variant-and-sub-lineages-collections:-xbb-1-5,-bf-5-1,-bf-5-2,-ba-5-2-46,-bf-7-with-c1243f,-cj-1,ch-1-1-1[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news:-sars-cov-2-presents-its-2023-variant-and-sub-lineages-collections:-xbb-1-5,-bf-5-1,-bf-5-2,-ba-5-2-46,-bf-7-with-c1243f,-cj-1,ch-1-1-1 ....DJ...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports has 1185 variants of "Omicron"....a lot of these variants may NOT exclude catching other variants on top of them....Worse even...DJ-I am NOT an expert at all-but it may influence the way other diseases develop via co-infections...We may see much more variants of flu, colds etc...

-Vaccines....[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-study-warns-that-frequent-boosters-may-cause-humoral-immune-tolerance-and-inhibit-the-activation-of-cd8-t-cells[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-study-warns-that-frequent-boosters-may-cause-humoral-immune-tolerance-and-inhibit-the-activation-of-cd8-t-cells 

DJ-The idea of vaccines ending the pandemic may be unrealistic...maybe better (oral/nasal) vaccines may help ? There will be a limit to "boosting immunity" I guess...certainly with new variants better in evading immunity one could need to "rebalance" the strategy...However-denial is the basic (lack of) "strategy"....Non-sterilizing vaccines in combination with massive spread-then going for boosters-is "pushing for ADE"? The immunity-system itself doing viral spread in the host ????








This is going under the radar, but looks like the CDC guidelines for masking are switching back to COVID-19 Community *TRANSMISSION* levels instead of "Community levels." That means the CDC now recommends universal masking for **71%** of counties in the US, instead of only 9%.

and

More than half of Staffordshire's ambulances queue outside Stoke hospital on New Year's Eve | UK News | Sky News

-








https://mstdn.social/@tracingcovid/109566959707596444  https://smh.com.au/national/post-christmas-covid-wave-looms-as-some-get-infected-for-a-fifth-time-20221222-p5c86j.html “We’ve certainly seen people who have had COVID a few times: they’ve been hospitalised with their 3rd or 4th or 5th infection & that’s the one that’s turned out to be more significant and more severe.”

DJ, cases may not increase-as far as there is any testing/reporting left...So new variants may be giving more healthissues....

WARS;

[url]https://southfront.org/turkiye-agreed-to-withdraw-troops-from-northern-syria-report/[/url] or https://southfront.org/turkiye-agreed-to-withdraw-troops-from-northern-syria-report/ ;

The parties reportedly agreed to consider the Kurdish formations of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party to be puppets of the United States and Israel and that they pose the greatest danger to Syria and Turkey.

DJ...Türkiye-still in NATO-calling the US-as supporter of the Kurds-a great danger for Türkiye.....The Duran [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2_ktxVQooQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2_ktxVQooQ Ukraine missiles ending up in Poland, Belarus may be meant to widen the war....(DJ-Remind me of the Vietnam-war, the US pulling Cambodia, Laos in that war because they could not beat the Viet Cong-nationalists (turned communist to get support from Russia, China...). 

The international "political crisis" on top of the global healthcrisis will weaken the (western) economy-in that way make it harder to deal with the healthcrises...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2023 at 9:41pm

January 3, 

Jacob B. Aguilar, PhD

@JacobBAguilar
·
I wish all a prosperous 2023. However, in realty the XBB.1.5 SUPER variant is exploding in the USA, now responsible for >40% of all cases. Modeling all points to it being the deadliest wave in pandemic history. This will exceed all previous waves. #multiyearpandemic

So maybe some early statistics give a hint ? 

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data would suggest for the UK cases now very slow early decrease ? [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table for now has global cases -20%...with hardly any testing in most places...








...which misclassifies most XBB.1.5* as XBB.1 or BA.2. The actual GISAID data, using Nextclade Pangolin XBB.1.5% show it is indeed at 40% already in the US & at 56% in New York state. It has a logistic growth rate of 0.14 per day, which is very fast. https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/United%20States/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?variantQuery=nextcladePangoLineage%3AXBB.1.5*&

Data /sequencingmay not recognize XBB.1.5...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/xbb-1-5-xbb15-already-outcompeting-its-closest-relatives-in-england/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/xbb-1-5-xbb15-already-outcompeting-its-closest-relatives-in-england/  ;

The latest Sanger Institute data for England show that the recombinant Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 is already outcompeting its familial lineages XBB, XBB.1.1 and XBB.2.

The latest figures from Sanger date back to 17th December 2022, so are already two weeks out of date. Sequence numbers are small, but they show XBB.1.5 at about 4% of sequences in England at that point in time.

If the virus is doubling in size every week, as it appears to be in the United States, by early January 2023 it could represent 20% or more of sequences in England.

Christmas, New Year did see lots of spread, even less testing...Even hospitals may have problems in testing the very high number of patients....with all kinds of diseases...(flu, RS-virus, co-infections...). 

DJ-Still "variant soup" in my view may be even worse then XBB.1.5 . We may see fast recombination/mutation so -even if XBB.1.5 would become "dominant" in most places we should expect XBB.1.5.1 etc. "sub-variants" at regional levels to be different. 

On top of that of course flu (most still H3N2 ?), RS-virus, etc. keep co-spreading/infecting and-in that proces-could change. (But again-I am NOT an expert, just trying to make some sense. )

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-united-states-entering-worrisome-hyperendemic-phase-similar-to-china-and-uk-with-covid-19-positivity-rates-exceeding-50-percent[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-united-states-entering-worrisome-hyperendemic-phase-similar-to-china-and-uk-with-covid-19-positivity-rates-exceeding-50-percent ;

"Hyper-endemic" for TMN means lots of infections, hospital cases, deaths....TMN mentions also US, UK, China, Japan are "first indicators" for what the rest of the world should expect...Has lots of good links to data a.o. on mutations/recombinants not only for XBB.1.5 -DJ, it may be "easy" for "media" claiming XBB.1.5 is the "new main risk" ...claim it is from China....both are non-sense claims....[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/1503[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/1503 (etc) may give some insight into the mutations already happening. TMN earlier reported on [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-york-covid-19-news-new-york-welcomes-2023-with-debut-of-new-recombinant-variant-involving-xbb1-5-and-bq-1-14[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-york-covid-19-news-new-york-welcomes-2023-with-debut-of-new-recombinant-variant-involving-xbb1-5-and-bq-1-14 ...

Another (good !) TMN link [url]https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations[/url] or https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations on hospitalcases...The coming (working)days we will see better/more reporting-(hospital)cases expected to increase worldwide....

DJ-The TMN link ends with "the pandemic just started"...2020-2022 was just a start-up....From a history point of view the Spanish Flu pandemic-killing between 2 and 5% of the global population around a century ago was "mild".....Both West- and East-Roman Empires ended-at least in part-because of pandemics....Europeans moving into the America's killed over 90% of the "Indians" due to European-new for America-diseases....(DJ, Earlier European visits, Vikings, Romans, may not have had enough viral load-or the high risk disease. Often those pre-Columbus "visits" were very limited both in number of people and time on land...). 

DJ-The main reason I am interested in both history & health is the very high potential risks...

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
·
🌎Global spread in just days—Let’s be clear—the #XBB15 super variant is a US-origin variant from Northeast US. The @CDCgov is cowardly in refusing to admit it. 📺Watch the incredibly fast spread (animation by @Mike_Honey_). @CDCDirector needs to wake up.

Masks help ! DIY-at home testing very likely to miss newer variants of CoViD (DJ-If you still have those tests one could use it. A positive test still is positive for CoViD ! Problem is a negative test simply could miss CoViD....)

To end this post; how bad can CoViD get ? [url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/animals.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/animals.html So far indications are most non-human species only run limited CoViD risks...minks may be the exception...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_diseases[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_diseases ;

The first coronavirus disease was discovered in the late 1920s, however, the most recent common ancestor of coronaviruses is estimated to have existed as recently as 8000 BCE.[11] Human coronaviruses were discovered in the 1960s, through a variety of experiments in the United States and the United Kingdom.[12] A common origin in human coronaviruses is bats.[13]

list several species-as far as discovered. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Infection_in_animals[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Infection_in_animals ...again...as a warning to take this crisis VERY !!!!! SERIOUS !!!!! ;In the case of outbreaks of highly contagious animal coronaviruses, such as PEDV, measures such as destruction of entire herds of pigs may be used to prevent transmission to other herds.[49]

DJ [url]https://link.springer.com/protocol/10.1007/978-1-4939-2438-7_1[/url] or https://link.springer.com/protocol/10.1007/978-1-4939-2438-7_1 (=49, a study from 2015);

Owing to the lack of effective therapeutics or vaccines, the best measures to control human coronaviruses remain a strong public health surveillance system coupled with rapid diagnostic testing and quarantine when necessary. For international outbreaks, cooperation of governmental entities, public health authorities, and health care providers is critical. During veterinary outbreaks that are readily transmitted, such as PEDV, more drastic measures such as destruction of entire herds of pigs may be necessary to prevent transmission of these deadly viruses.

DJ...we did make progress in pharma since 2015, however international cooperation only did get worse since then....

End of this part...more twitter in the next part...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2023 at 10:51pm

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wait-second-merkel-did-what[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wait-second-merkel-did-what DJ-In short; The west only making agreements to break them when the west has had enough of it is "end of diplomacy".....Some western countries trying to "push" Russia out of the UN are destroying what is left of the basic idea of global cooperation....

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/12/31/niesters-illusion-think-can-stop-coronavirus[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/12/31/niesters-illusion-think-can-stop-coronavirus ;

Whether it is right for the government to offer travelers from China only a voluntary self-test for the coronavirus, virologist Bert Niesters does not know. "The virus is coming here, we can't stop it, we don't need to have any illusions about that. But Europe now has a mess of rules, and that's a shame. It makes more sense to have a European approach," Niesters argued.

DJ...reality...very likely at least some of the variants in China came FROM the west.....

Other countries require the presentation of a negative Covid-19 test or vaccination certificate before leaving China. This regulation is in place in the United Kingdom, France, Spain and Italy. Also other countries have taken measures, such as the United States, South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Japan and India. Belgium will discuss the situation next week.

DJ, maybe PCR-tests may still be usefull-a lot of newer variants may be missed by Do-It-Yourself/DIY-at home testing...(only 25% of infections still detected in a ? november ? study...?)

The Netherlands however, sticks with the self-test offered and the recommendation to go into isolation in case of a positive result. But Niesters does not know what the right approach is. "I don't have to do politics. I am already glad that the minister is now speaking out, so that something is being said after all. Because the ministry and RIVM were the only ones you didn't hear from last week."

DJ...recommendations did such a great job ! Please....

The Dutch are generally well protected against the coronavirus, according to the virologist. People have built up a high level of protection through vaccination and through one or more infections with Covid-19. "That helps against serious illness, but it doesn't prevent you from getting infected. And even if it's the omicron variety, you can get reasonably sick from it. We're not worried that there will be a dangerous variant, but who can predict the future?"

DJ...please...this is supposed to be expert-virologist-advice to the NL government...still going for "herd immunity"?????

For Niesters, the big problem is in the numbers. "The wave in China is huge. Assuming half of the Chinese are infected, we're talking about 700 million people. That's more cases than have been detected worldwide so far. That's not a small peak."

The virologist explained that he is sometimes shocked at the number of people infected on flights from China. In Milan recently, about half of all passengers on some flights from China tested positive. "If half are (tested) positive, everyone is infected, you can assume that. Because then you can't escape it if you're on a plane with others for 12 hours. But the chance that you won't get infected then is very small."

That is why, according to Niesters, it is important for China to continue testing for the coronavirus and analyzing test samples to determine which variants are circulating.

DJ...maybe western countries should restart serious testing ?????

These so-called sequences should then also be shared by the country with the rest of the world. "Groningen has also shared more results in recent months. The World Health Organization has asked China to provide more up-to-date information so we can make risk assessments and take effective action.

DJ...the problem may not be in the sequencing but what is done with it...ignoring science, denial of problems only makes matters MUCH worse...This NL-times article reflects the "view/strategy" of most western countries...The US now switching to more "advice" on masks...the UK telling parents not to send ill children to school...(again...please...UK rules demanded sick children to go to school to increase herd immunity as a way out of the pandemic....No doubt based on "science-for-sale" pseudo experts/criminals....). 








Tucked away in this article is this from NHS England's Chris Hopson: "there are 9,500 NHS staff absent at the moment due to Covid." Infuriating. With the right PPE (fitted FFP3) & enhancements to ventilation/filtration, this would have been avoided.

DJ, STILL !!! HCW-ers do not get enough protection...when ill they are dumped-"politics" importing HCW-ers from low income countries to run the risks (when ill they get deported...). 

Dear public health organisations, You can't deal with a rapidly adapting virus with highly immune evasive variants with an outdated vaccine only approach. You need variant agnostic approaches- approaches that reduce airborne transmission *alongside* & reduce rate of adaptation.

and

I'm astonished that when faced with new highly evasive variants that are growing - our only response is the boosters that these variants are getting better at evading. Why aren't we protecting vaccine efficacy, by using multi-layered approaches to reduce transmission alongside.

DJ...money is the only thing that matters..."Politics" in many countries seem to be in the hands of "high IQ-idiots" living in a tunnelvision...








We don’t have enough staff. We don’t have enough beds. We don’t have enough social care. We knew this was coming. The government knew it was coming. And they just don’t care. Your blood on their hands.

link to billionaire-owned [url]https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jan/01/up-to-500-deaths-a-week-due-to-ae-delays-says-senior-medic?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jan/01/up-to-500-deaths-a-week-due-to-ae-delays-says-senior-medic?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other 

DJ-It is welcome main-stream-media sometimes link to reality...in general msm failed even more then politics...(but politics and media get paid by the same "sponsors"...). 

End of this part...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 3 -january 3, maybe some optimism ? 








🧵1/N How do vaccines and/or natural infection change infectiousness of #COVID19 during #Omicron? Our new article published in  measures #COVID19 infectiousness, and finds reductions from both vaccine and natural infection. https://nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02138-x

link [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02138-x[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02138-x ;

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and reinfections in previously infected individuals have become increasingly common. Such infections highlight a broader need to understand the contribution of vaccination, including booster doses, and natural immunity to the infectiousness of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infections, especially in high-risk populations with intense transmission, such as in prisons. Here we show that both vaccine-derived and naturally acquired immunity independently reduce the infectiousness of persons with Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 infections in a prison setting. Analyzing SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data from December 2021 to May 2022 across 35 California state prisons with a predominately male population, we estimate that unvaccinated Omicron cases had a 36% (95% confidence interval (CI): 31–42%) risk of transmitting infection to close contacts, as compared to a 28% (25–31%) risk among vaccinated cases. In adjusted analyses, we estimated that any vaccination, prior infection alone and both vaccination and prior infection reduced an index case’s risk of transmitting infection by 22% (6–36%), 23% (3–39%) and 40% (20–55%), respectively. Receipt of booster doses and more recent vaccination further reduced infectiousness among vaccinated cases. These findings suggest that, although vaccinated and/or previously infected individuals remain highly infectious upon SARS-CoV-2 infection in this prison setting, their infectiousness is reduced compared to individuals without any history of vaccination or infection. This study underscores benefit of vaccination to reduce, but not eliminate, transmission.

DJ december 21 to may 22 study in US-California prisons. My reaction-earlier infection and/or vaccination did limit spread at that time....The basic problem however is vaccines did NOT STOP infections...So "vaccines only" -lack of (most) NPI resulted in more immunity evasion....We may be very close to where vaccines/infections no longer offer ANY protection against most CoViD variants in circulation....Oral/nasal vaccines can change the picture-only when they DO STOP CoViD from spreading...otherwise new vaccines only results in more evasion....

In any case: the impact of XBB.1.5 will likely be much larger than any variant that could come out of China for the moment. In terms of surveillance efforts, random sampling of samples arriving from anywhere would probably be more useful than just checking Chinese travellers.

DJ..politics in the west want blame-games not solutions....This pandemic is the outcome of greed-based politics-for-sale...If we want to get out of this crisis we need to change (western) politics...









The exact impact on the absolute Rt value of new infections and on hospitalisations will depend on prevailing levels of population immunity, and both are still a little unsure. I would think a moderate wave of similar magnitude to the current BQ.1 in Europe is likely.

DJ Of course worldwide there are regional differences. Most of Europe has high level of (m-RNA) vaccinations...however if Israel (also very high level of vaccination) gives an indication I think we should not expect miracles....XBB.1.5 may need a bit more time/mutations for further spread in Europe...


* Latest genomic surveillance data show BF.7 is predominant in Beijing, while BA.5.2 & BQ.1* are the most common lineage in Shanghai. Either way, lineages that are either in decline in Europe (BF.7, BA.5.2) or at least as common here (BQ.1).

But still "media/politics" will blame China for the spread of XBB.1.5 even when that variant started in the US.....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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January 4, 

-Mixed news on variant-risks [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-media-now-reporting-that-xbb-1-5-is-mild-focus-should-be-not-be-on-variants-but-to-simply-avoid-sars-cov-2-exposure-or-reinfections[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-media-now-reporting-that-xbb-1-5-is-mild-focus-should-be-not-be-on-variants-but-to-simply-avoid-sars-cov-2-exposure-or-reinfections background matters...complex story...

Still [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-yale-study-shows-that-omicron-subvariants-are-evolving-further-through-mutations-on-orf8-proteins-to-escape-from-mhc-i-recognition[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-yale-study-shows-that-omicron-subvariants-are-evolving-further-through-mutations-on-orf8-proteins-to-escape-from-mhc-i-recognition -like with climate change-you may not notice changes, changes-for now-may not be dramatic...They are part of a proces...more virus spread is more room for mutations. The "variant soup" in itself is part of exponential growth...even when-at first-a lot of those newer variants may look "milder"....

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/bloom-lab-why-is-xbb-1-5-so-contagious/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/bloom-lab-why-is-xbb-1-5-so-contagious/ ; High transmissibility means XBB.1.5 is becoming responsible for larger fraction of COVID-19 cases. This continues below pattern of strain replacement we’ve seen over last few years of SARSCoV2 evolution. Eg, there will always be new variants spreading, & right now it’s XBB.1.5.

-

It’s easy to understand why it took longer for variants to emerge at site 486: mutations at 486 reduce ACE2 affinity, so benefit they provide in antibody escape comes at cost to receptor binding. See below for our deep mutational scanning data fromhttps://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo7896

So variants like XBB/XBB.1 fixed mutation (F486S) that was beneficial for antibody escape but detrimental to ACE2 affinity. In other words, they made an evolutionary tradeoff.

-

Catch is that F486P requires *two* nucleotide mutations to the same codon, which is rare event even for RNA virus like SARS-CoV-2. https://twitter.com/LongDesertTrain/status/1556473625456377863. That’s why it took so long for variants to start fixing F486P.

-

By the way, whether increase in fraction of cases due to XBB.1.5 will lead to surge in absolute number of cases is still not certain. But sometimes new variants drive increase in total cases, & in general human coronaviruses (& other respiratory viruses) surge in winter.

DJ...So-XBB.1.5 may increase but total CoViD-19 cases may decrease=share of XBB.1.5 of all cases would develop as dominant in the variant soup ? 

----

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCxGXyitu2o[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCxGXyitu2o The Mystery of the Carthaginians in The Americas

Combing through the Amazon wilderness, archeologists made an amazing discovery: artifacts of ancient seafaring people from the Iberian Peninsula. They may have fled the carnage of the Roman Empire's war on Carthage, called by some historians the Roman holocaust. This documentary investigates the claim that South America was discovered and settled by Mediterranean peoples over 2,000 years ago.

DJ, One of the questions I have is what impact diseases can have on a society. Columbus etc. Europe moving into the Americas [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics#European_contact[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics#European_contact ;

The arrival and settlement of Europeans in the Americas resulted in what is known as the Columbian exchange. During this period European settlers brought many different technologies, animals, plants, and lifestyles with them, some of which benefited the indigenous peoples. Europeans also took plants and goods back to the Old World. Potatoes and tomatoes from the Americas became integral to European and Asian cuisines, for instance.[3]

But Europeans also unintentionally brought new infectious diseases, including smallpoxbubonic plaguechickenpoxcholerathe common colddiphtheriainfluenzamalariameaslesscarlet feversexually transmitted diseases (with the possible exception of syphilis), typhoidtyphustuberculosis (although a form of this infection existed in South America prior to contact),[4] and pertussis.[5][6][7] Each of these resulted in sweeping epidemics among Native Americans, who had disability, illness, and a high mortality rate.[7] The Europeans infected with such diseases typically carried them in a dormant state, were actively infected but asymptomatic, or had only mild symptoms, because Europe had been subject for centuries to a selective process by these diseases. The explorers and colonists often unknowingly passed the diseases to natives.[3] The introduction of African slaves and the use of commercial trade routes contributed to the spread of disease.[8][9]

The infections brought by Europeans are not easily tracked, since there were numerous outbreaks and all were not equally recorded. Historical accounts of epidemics are often vague or contradictory in describing how victims were affected. A rash accompanied by a fever might be smallpox, measles, scarlet fever, or varicella, and many epidemics overlapped with multiple infections striking the same population at once, therefore it is often impossible to know the exact causes of mortality (although ancient DNA studies can often determine the presence of certain microbes).[10] Smallpox was the disease brought by Europeans that was most destructive to the Native Americans, both in terms of morbidity and mortality. The first well-documented smallpox epidemic in the Americas began in Hispaniola in late 1518 and soon spread to Mexico.[3] Estimates of mortality range from one-quarter to one-half of the population of central Mexico.[11]

-

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics#Effect_on_population_numbers[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics#Effect_on_population_numbers

Many Native American tribes suffered high mortality and depopulation, averaging 25–50% of the tribes' members dead from disease. Additionally, some smaller tribes neared extinction after facing a severely destructive spread of disease.[5]

A specific example was what followed Cortés' invasion of Mexico. Before his arrival, the Mexican population is estimated to have been around 25 to 30 million. Fifty years later, the Mexican population was reduced to 3 million, mainly by infectious disease. A 2018 study by Koch, Brierley, Maslin and Lewis concluded that an estimated "55 million indigenous people died following the European conquest of the Americas beginning in 1492."[41] By 1700, fewer than 5,000 Native Americans remained in the southeastern coastal region of the United States.[7] In Florida alone, an estimated 700,000 Native Americans lived there in 1520, but by 1700 the number was around 2,000.[7]

Some 21st-century climate scientists have suggested that a severe reduction of the indigenous population in the Americas and the accompanying reduction in cultivated lands during the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries may have contributed to a global cooling event known as the Little Ice Age.[41][42]

The loss of the population was so high that it was partially responsible for the myth of the Americas as "virgin wilderness". By the time significant European colonization was underway, native populations had already been reduced by 90%. This resulted in settlements vanishing and cultivated fields being abandoned. Since forests were recovering, the colonists had an impression of a land that was an untamed wilderness.[43]

DJ..So most of the native American population reduction was between 1500-1700..a lot of it 1500-1550-further reduction more the outcome of collapse of society and introduction of yet other new-for the area-diseases.  [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics#/media/File:Acuna-Soto_EID-v8n4p360_Fig1.png[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics#/media/File:Acuna-Soto_EID-v8n4p360_Fig1.png 

How does this translate to CoViD-19 ? 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic ; Although contemporaries described the pandemic as influenza and 20th-century scholars identified several influenza strains as the possible pathogen, some more recent authors suggest that it may have been caused by human coronavirus OC43.[6][7][8][9]

DJ If the "Russian Flu of 1889" indeed was caused by [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43 CoViD-19 could become a "cold like virus" over time...Since it did spread this much...billions of human cases, very likely millions of non-human cases (most of the spread in minks now under control ???) CoViD-19 still may have a long way to go before "running out of possible mutations"....

IF-however-the 1889 "Russian Flu" indeed was a flu-virus, and NOT a 19th century form of CoViD, maybe the perspective worsens...

DJ-One idea is SARS-2/CoViD-19 has to run out of possible mutations at a certain moment...

About 15 years ago we did three simulations of a pandemic starting in Africa, Asia and NY based on actual flight routes to show how the spread works. As you can see in this case, from NY it went everywhere very fast.

Did a study on the number of possible mutations (deletions, recombinations) and had the idea there may be "a lot" (millions I believe it was...). 

So...can CoViD-19 -if it is a relative new sort of corona-virus- "end humanity"???? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coronavirus#Discovery_of_human_coronaviruses[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coronavirus#Discovery_of_human_coronaviruses (by the way; Then B814 could be maintained in the new human tracheal culture and experimentally passed on to healthy volunteers by nasal inoculation. DJ...in the 60's they believed this was safe ???)

[url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html ;Common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold. Most people get infected with one or more of these viruses at some point in their lives.

DJ [url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html , [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacoronavirus_1[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacoronavirus_1 the idea is corona-virus once ended up in humans from other species and developed into a cold-like symptom virus...

So...SARS/MERS are more serious...and maybe we do not have the knowledge to estimate what SARS-2/CoViD-19 could do if we do not get a grip on it ? Flu-pandemics end up because immunity stops further spread....immunity may not be strong/long enough to stop CoViD from creating new variants able to re-infect...And when CoViD runs out (if ever...) of new variants immunity may no longer protect us against re-use of older mutations/variants ? 

Again-I am not any kind of expert...just trying to make some sense...

Part 2 more twitter...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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On the US;








We have consistently 4 X more #COVID19 hospitalized patients (~170) compared to Flu (~45), 15 X > than RSV (10); we also have intubated #COVID19 pts. I hear similar numbers from all over the Northeast. Not aiming to spread panic, simply inject reality, encourage caution




-







In the US its share doubled every ~8 days during the past 2.5 months and is now estimated to contribute more than 30% of cases. Across the globe XBB.1.5 is still comparably rare (<5%).
DJ  ....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table always were not very usefull early january....Global cases would be -22%, US even -46%...Africa CoViD deaths +61% 18 reported last week, 29 this week...Asia deaths +6%...

China cases would be +56% (last week 24,107 to last 7 days 37,546) India cases +14% (last week 1,314, this week 1,498 CoViD cases in India...population 1,4 billion...). 








Great work! Immune evasion by XBB.1.5, even after 3 mRNA vaccins plus a BA.5 infection.

link [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.522427v1[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.522427v1The fact that XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 showed comparable antibody evasion but distinct transmissibility suggests enhanced receptor-binding affinity would indeed lead to higher growth advantages. The strong hACE2 binding of XBB.1.5 could also enable its tolerance of further immune escape mutations, which should be closely monitored.

DJ...XBB.1.5 getting around 3 vaccines plus BA.5 infection-immunity simply looks like bad news...Most people have less immunity protection...So-more info on age, gender, health of the case may explain why (s)he got still infected...high risk enviroment + no NPI/ventilation ? 

UK,

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/children/uk-keep-kids-at-home-if-they-are-sick-adults-should-wear-a-mask/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/children/uk-keep-kids-at-home-if-they-are-sick-adults-should-wear-a-mask/ ;It seems that a collapsing National Health Service has finally stirred the UK Health Security Agency from its winter slumberfest, forcing them to issue a decree telling parents to keep their kids at home if they are sick. Adults who aren’t well should wear a facemask. This advice comes just ONE DAY before schools are due to resume following the winter break.

A look at [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data has january 3; 3,322,552 active cases...December 29 had 3,363,774 active UK cases...so are UK cases decreasing or is reporting symptoms an issue ? UK hardly reporting official statistics "because the pandemic is over"....







Business profile picture

“There seems to be almost a battle of machismo and denial going on.” Dr Ian Higginson, VP of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, asks NHS and political leaders if there’s “an acceptable number” of patients dying as a result of delays and crisis in the NHS.

DJ denial as a strategy....

WesElyMD

@WesElyMD
·
1/🧵 Our cell’s genes are rewired in MILD COVID 🧬 Stunning data in @Nature White Cells (monocytes) switch gene expression from an established innate immune profile to a pro-clotting signature in COVID. We’re immunocompromised. Let’s unpack this… https://go.nature.com/3GeDygW

DJ...here in NL the RIVM-NL-CDC stops providing CoViD-deaths statistics, Central Bureau of Statistics will provide statistics on deaths...with a four month delay....

Let op: sterfgevallen door covid worden niet meer door het RIVM gepubliceerd. Het CBS zal dit wel vermelden in de doodsoorzakenstatistiek, maar daar zit een vertraging in van vier maanden. De info komt uiteindelijk dus wel beschikbaar maar het duurt veel langer dan gebruikelijk.

(NL version)

China estimates 250mn people have caught Covid in 20 days

link [url]https://www.ft.com/content/1fb6044a-3050-44d8-b715-80c18ca5c9ab[/url] or https://www.ft.com/content/1fb6044a-3050-44d8-b715-80c18ca5c9ab ...that is a very extreme number...around 18% of China population getting infected last 20 days....UK population 68,5 million....with at present 3,3 million active cases - around 5% of the UK population may have been infected last 20 days ???








We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2023 at 12:05am

january 5 - 2023

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-is-not-sars-cov-3-stupids-be-patient-sars-cov-3-is-likely-to-emerge-around-mid-or-late-2023-via-zoonotic-involvement[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-is-not-sars-cov-3-stupids-be-patient-sars-cov-3-is-likely-to-emerge-around-mid-or-late-2023-via-zoonotic-involvement (I totally disagree with how TMN communicates-insults should NOT be part of a discussion).

Dr David Berger, aBsuRdiSTe cROnickLeR

@YouAreLobbyLud
·
1/ HOW DIFFERENT IS XBB.1.5 AND HOW WORRYING IS IT? Very. This graphic from the linked paper shows it is as different from the Wuhan variant (now known as WT = Wild Type) of SARS-COV-2 as WT is from SARS-COV (the virus which caused SARS1 in 2003). https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.11.23.517532v1.full.pdf


DJ-XBB.1.5 is "very far away" from the 2019 earliest variants...Is that a reason to name it "SARS-3"? I think the "name" is the least of our problems...However if it would be named SARS-3 maybe this pandemic would be taken more serious ? 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/03/covid-hospitalizations-jumped-60-last-week-2022-hospital-total-8-week-high[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/03/covid-hospitalizations-jumped-60-last-week-2022-hospital-total-8-week-high and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/04/flu-epidemic-continuing-third-week-flu-cases-highest-point-3-years[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/04/flu-epidemic-continuing-third-week-flu-cases-highest-point-3-years  Lots of countries now face hospital crises...

[url]https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/fur-free-europe[/url] or https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/fur-free-europe Denmark is thinking of allowing mink-farming again...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5Cluster 5 is a designation used by the Danish Statens Serum Institut for a virus variant described by the institute in autumn 2020, in connection with investigations of SARS-CoV-2 infection among mink and humans in the north of Jutland, Denmark.[1]

DJ...is there an end to stupidity ? 

-A major problem in this pandemic is the way it is seen. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYrFU6QnhBE&t=629s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYrFU6QnhBE&t=629s  Dr. John Campbell believes "infection creates natural immunity"...so infections would end the pandemic, CoViD would be "self limiting" -maybe more slowly then "the flu" but both vaccines, and after infection immunity would be strong enough to "end the pandemic"...

This "view" is widespread, the basics for most policies...however based on wishfull thinking...not science...










This would be ca 4-5x the typical yearly toll of influenza (flu causes ca 1100 deaths/year in BE, ca 400K across the world). Equally, it would be possible of course that ever higher levels of population immunity would cause the infection fatality rate to still go down a bit more.

DJ  not only would "living with CoViD" result in 2 million deaths per year, many millions dealing with "long CoViD"...it also means -by now- a variant "soup"-mega mix...People/hosts getting infected with several CoViD variants...Immunity-if any-after vaccination and/or infection simply does not last long enough and is strong enough....

BR.2.1 and XBF aren't getting the attention XBB.1.5 is getting, but they have become dominant together in New South Wales, Australia. And probably in Victoria as well, which has more XBF than BR.2.1. XBF has S:F486P like XBB.1.5 and XBK, while BR.2.1 has F486I. 1/2

DJ...Maybe the correct picture is we are still in SARS-2 phase-the start of this pandemic was (somewere) in 2019...However SARS-3 -brewing in some animal-may be around the corner...

So far we totally failed to deal with the present pandemic-did act as if it was a type of (self limiting via immunity) flu...well it is NOT ! 

This year -2023- will bring hard realities with millions of lives lost...

End of this part...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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January 6 - 2023,

The basic (western) "suggestion" is pandemic now is endemic-wordgames....

XBB.1.5 now also a.o. detected in Canada, Brazil...so is the "variant soup idea" not valid ? Australia, China a.o. may still have lots of other variants...XBB.1.5 (Kraken) has lots of subvariants...I think the "variant soup idea" still is valid and very dangerous..."The Virus" now has many entries, ways of spread, not "just a few variants"...









Coronavirus found in samples from 96% of flights. New research shows the COVID-19 virus has been found on nearly every flight tested. 

link; [url]https://www.audacy.com/wwjnewsradio/news/national/coronavirus-found-in-samples-from-96-percent-of-flights[/url] or https://www.audacy.com/wwjnewsradio/news/national/coronavirus-found-in-samples-from-96-percent-of-flights (not available in EU)

Excess deaths in UK hit highest level in two years amid NHS crisis | The Independent

link; [url]https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-accident-emergency-hospital-death-toll-b2256740.html[/url] or https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-accident-emergency-hospital-death-toll-b2256740.html  (public info behind paywall - so you pay twice, first via tax, then via subscription...) 








ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 23 Dec. 2,982 more deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 2015-19 average. That’s 26% more, the largest excess we’ve seen all year. Year-to-date there have been 567,379 deaths recorded which is 8% more than 2015-19 avg.

DJ, here in NL;

Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch
·
Interesting development: The Netherlands health authorities will no longer report covid deaths So the only measure of covid deaths as of 2023 will be the dutch stats office, who needs unfortunately 4 months to consolidate the data (there are rules to be observed) 1/ twitter.com/rubenivangaale…

simply stop reporting numbers, stop testing, even stop waste water sequencing....

With in the UK the NHS collapsing;








I can't put into words just how much I abhor this. The right to strike is incredibly hard won and workers only real weapon against abusive employers like this government. To remove it is a huge, awful step and we must fight it every step of the way.

and

Steven Swinford

@Steven_Swinford
·
EXCLUSIVE: Rishi Sunak is poised to announce minimum strike legislation as soon as tomorrow It will enable employers to sue unions and sack employees if they refuse to accept Hearing six sectors covered - NHS, schools, rail, borders, fire, nuclear https://thetimes.co.uk/article/69f2c02c-8c77-11ed-b24e-c1aaebfbdb8d?shareToken=da488f5271005a8f26a56fd1fa36dcb6

DJ...how to solve problems ? Deny them ! Silence people who point out that denialism only makes matters worse..."by law the pandemic is over"...By law we ended climate collapse, by law we "beat Russia"...endless insanity ! End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ; 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/p/about-us[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/p/about-us If you want to showcase Thailand medical sector then please stop insulting people. TMN has lots of good info but the words used are not wise. I can live with cynicism-by now maybe the only realist way of seeing how healthcare is being destroyed by neo-liberalism...

But getting personal, insults, will stop people from using TMN as a source. 

DJ in foreign policy "veterans today" , "hal turner" also go over borders...I want to look at things from different corners but I will not link to "hate-sites" for very long...TMN runs the risk of frustation and anger becoming dominant over the info...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-is-not-as-worrisome-as-compared-to-china-s-unique-bf-7-and-ba-5-2-sub-lineages-that-are-driving-hospitalizations-and-deaths[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-is-not-as-worrisome-as-compared-to-china-s-unique-bf-7-and-ba-5-2-sub-lineages-that-are-driving-hospitalizations-and-deaths DJ-So how bad is XBB.1.5 ? 








Replying to   and 
Given that XBB.1.5 is spreading all across the US, already having reached a share of 20%-70% in various US states & that it is also spreading in all other countries for which we have good data I would say answer to the question "Will XBB.1.5 spread further?" is: most probably yes

and








Number of Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 reaches 48,810, the highest since February 2022

DJ, since mostly testing-and with that- sequencing has stopped "because the pandemic is over" it may be hard-if not impossible-to get a realistic view on XBB.1.5 . Some see it as "SARS-3" others claim new variants-able to better link to both ACE-2 and other receptors -in that way even worse- spreading from animals (mink farming restarting in Denmark....) to humans should be named SARS-3....

There must be millions (????) of co-infections of CoViD and flu....








Grim milestone hit today in England. 🚨TWENTY THOUSAND🚨 children aged under 5 have now been hospitalised by Covid.

DJ, children were believed to not get very ill from CoViD...some "experts" even -still- claiming catching CoViD boost immunity...DJ-CoViD destroys immunity...in 90% of cases (a study claimed) the virus does NOT leave the body...keeps doing damage, mutating..."long CoViD often is chronic CoViD" with the virus still doing damage-LF/DIY at home testing may no longer detect any virus...

TMN mentions China seeing BF.7, , BA.5.2 subvariants resulting in high number of hospital cases, deaths...DJ-Given China has a population of 1,4 billion "high numbers" are relative...China could see 3 million deaths of CoViD and still do much better then the US with a population of 333 million and over 1 million CoViD deaths....

BR.2.1 and XBF aren't getting the attention XBB.1.5 is getting, but they have become dominant together in New South Wales, Australia. And probably in Victoria as well, which has more XBF than BR.2.1. XBF has S:F486P like XBB.1.5 and XBK, while BR.2.1 has F486I.

So several variants still playing major roles in different area's...Africa had very poor testing (South Africa doing a bit better) but we may in be for more surprises...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-sars-cov-2-variant-cluster-onslaught-in-japan-is-now-worse-than-china-231,000-covid-19-cases,-498-deaths-in-last-24-hours[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-sars-cov-2-variant-cluster-onslaught-in-japan-is-now-worse-than-china-231,000-covid-19-cases,-498-deaths-in-last-24-hours  TMN points to XBF variants -also detected in Australia- resulting in high number of (hospital) cases, deaths even in the vaccinated...

TMN also mentiones Japan government actively trying to "stop the news"...denial as a strategy...DJ results in genocide by pandemics. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table is doing an impossible job...Also [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data may be having a hard time due to both "pandemic fatigue" and missing the point that maybe less cases may still see more severe cases...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2023 at 11:53pm

January 7....Insanity rules...

In a growing number of countries HCW-ers may go on strike for better pay, safer working conditions...still 'neo-liberal political insane" push again billions into more wars...

DJ-One should always look at pandemics against their background-pandemics are the outcome of a process-should be seen as part of that process !

So...the EU going to check on passengers coming from China..if they test positive they will be advised they tested positive...[url]https://www.independentsage.org/statement-on-covid-19-management-in-light-of-pandemic-increase-in-china/[/url] or https://www.independentsage.org/statement-on-covid-19-management-in-light-of-pandemic-increase-in-china/ because "the west" did give on testing...claiming "CoViD is over" when it is getting worse...The XBB.1.5 variant from the US -NOT from China !!!- is spreading also in Europe...

STOP THE SPREAD would deal with the weakest spot in this pandemic cycle; disease-transport-host....Somehow even some "experts" in this 4th year of CoViD pandemic stick to dealing with CoViD as if it was some kind of self-limiting flu-like disease...So we keep seeing MORE spread, MORE variants...at the end more illness and deaths..."Living with the virus"means 2 million CoViD deaths per year may be an optimistic view! 

Long CoViD in 90% of cases is CHRONIC CoViD-with the virus still in the body doing damage ! "Long CoViD" by now is the most widespread of CoViD ! Very likely hundreds of millions of people around the globe deal with limitations this Long coViD brings...excess deaths are very high...NOT linking that with CoViD is BAD politics !

Newer variants only outcompete the older variants by being "better" in spreading; so higher viral load, better binding to receptors, more immunity evasion...andwe do NOT stop that. It is a political choice...a criminal choice !








1 in every 7.5 over 85s has been hospitalised with covid in England.

DJ, this is murder !

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-new-sars-cov-2-variants-in-china-bf-7-14-and-ba-5-2-48-found-to-driving-pneumonia-and-ards-but-fake-virologist-claiming-they-are-mild[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-new-sars-cov-2-variants-in-china-bf-7-14-and-ba-5-2-48-found-to-driving-pneumonia-and-ards-but-fake-virologist-claiming-they-are-mild  and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-symptoms-and-manifestations-based-on-collated-data-from-observations,-online-searches-and-social-media-postings[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-symptoms-and-manifestations-based-on-collated-data-from-observations,-online-searches-and-social-media-postings TMN claiming some of the new Chinese variants may be more of a risk then the XBB.1.5 spreading from the US. 

DJ-TMN is very correct in stating that ALL new variants should be a worry since we may not know the long term effects and what role new variants may play in evolution of this pandemic. 

TMN also warning; XBB.1.5 may spread more via the eyes...more receptor-binding so a low viral load-via the eyes-still can cause an infection. Symptoms may look more like flu...so NO loss of smell. More Gastro-Intestal problems, sleep disorders, neck-pain, fatigue...Children less vulnerable for XBB.1.5 ???

DJ-Schools will reopen coming monday in lots of countries...also more workplaces could reopen-more spread...

International situation-DJ my view;

I think "the rest" of the world may unite to make clear their view of the "west".

-In Ukraine I would not be surprised if a pro-Russian offensive would move close to the Polish border south to cut of further western supplies to keep the Ukraine war going...The rest of the world has had enough of this NATO agression...They may not only want to finish the Ukraine war but also end NATO being able to go for confrontation...

-Economic wars will heat up. The rest of the world may further increase dropping the US$, Euro €, UK-pound...go for "limiting" western economies to support wars...

-Here in Europe [url]https://www.statista.com/chart/29050/record-winter-temperatures/[/url] or https://www.statista.com/chart/29050/record-winter-temperatures/ it is much to warm...So energy-wars only have a limited effect. Demand for energy did not yet become a major problem...So currency wars will be the next frontline...

-Energy prices were part of the inflation going up...decrease of value of $, €, pound in the "international market" will again increase inflation...

Fiat-currency is the western weak spot...The intrinsic value of western-fiat-currencies is very limited (maybe not even 1% of what we now use it for...So 1 $, 1 € may be 0,01 dollar or euro soon...). The western phantasy of "solving" any crisis by printing more money has become western civilization build on melting ice....

Ignoring pandemics, climate change...empty words by useless "leaders" did lead the west to its end...I do not see a stop..."western dominance" is over. 

End of part 1


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2023 at 12:33am

part 2, 

Very good summary [url]https://www.independentsage.org/statement-on-covid-19-management-in-light-of-pandemic-increase-in-china/[/url] or https://www.independentsage.org/statement-on-covid-19-management-in-light-of-pandemic-increase-in-china/ ;

COVID-19 management in light of pandemic increase in China and potential impact of new Omicron sub-variants (notably XBB.1.5 “Kraken”, and CH.1.1 “Orthrus”)

High rates of SARS-CoV2 transmission anywhere in the world makes the emergence of new variants more likely. Some new variants are more transmissible and/or better able to evade antibody immunity acquired through previous infection or vaccination, in which case they seed a new wave of infections in susceptible populations.

Following the recent easing of protective measures such as physical distancing, masking, mass testing, and quarantining in China, cases of COVID-19 have increased dramatically. The millions of new infections in China provide many opportunities for the virus, now expanding rapidly, to mutate. However, the viral lineages now dominant in China closely resemble those that have been widespread elsewhere since mid-2022. Nevertheless, as SARS-CoV2 spreads further within the Chinese population, it is likely that new variants will emerge there, as they have been doing in other parts of the world. The consequences for the global course of the pandemic is, however, unpredictable because of differences in immunity between distinct global populations.

In the UK, the Omicron subvariant BQ.1.1 became dominant at the end of 2022, but now two new Omicron subvariants, CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5 have emerged, and are likely to replace it. The fastest growth (but still representing a small number of cases) is occurring with the XBB1.5 variant, probably imported from the USA, which appears both more transmissible and more immune evasive. Cases and hospital admissions are rising rapidly now in the North-Eastern USA, where XBB.1.5 is dominant. This is likely again due to differences in both the nature and extent of vaccine- and infection- acquired immunity between these populations, yet there is no guarantee that this will remain the case going forward.

The UK Government introduced two precautionary measures in early January 2023, in response to the step-change observed in the Chinese epidemic. First, people travelling directly from China will be required to show a negative test result before boarding their flight. Second, a sample of travellers from China will be tested on entry to the UK and any SARS-CoV-2 lineages will be genetically sequenced to identify new variants. However, passengers arriving and testing positive will not be obliged to self-isolate.

Independent SAGE has the following comments on this approach:

  1. Requiring negative COVID-19 tests on direct entry from China is unlikely to make any material difference to the number of cases in the UK. This is because the UK is doing little to control transmission internally, and large numbers of infections presumably arrive from other countries (and equally, spread from the UK to other countries). When attempted in the past, even with a much wider range of countries, this policy has not been effective in keeping prevalence low – this has only worked when implemented as part of a comprehensive quarantine policy.
  2. Testing and genetic sequencing of a proportion of international arrivals makes sense, but only if carried out regardless of the origin of travellers and not just China. Genetic surveillance and the sharing of SARS-CoV2 sequence data varies considerably between countries, with China currently being one providing the least data. Variants can arise anywhere, including the UK.
  3. Surveillance and identification of new variants is helpful only to the extent that action is taken to reduce ensuing transmission within countries where they are introduced.

From the UK perspective, the NHS is already under unprecedented systemic pressure, exacerbated by both COVID and other winter viruses including resurgent influenza virus.  XBB.1.5 is one of the most immune-evasive SARS-CoV-2 variants to date. It also appears to be more transmissible. These features help explain why XBB.1.5 is currently outcompeting other variants such as the BQ lineages in the US, and may also be why it appears to be associated with higher hospitalisation rates.

Thus, we urgently need the multi-layered approach (a.k.a. “Vaccines Plus”) as called for by the Scientific Advisory Group in Emergences (SAGE) in their paper published in 2021: “Sustaining behaviours to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission” and the associated journal article “Staying ‘COVID-safe’: Proposals for embedding behaviours that protect against COVID-19 transmission in the UK” 

Immediate steps, as called for by Independent SAGE in its final report of 2022, are:

  1. If you haven’t done so already, get vaccinated and/or get a booster without delay. If eligible for the Flu vaccine, ensure you and/or your children have this as well. This vaccine is also available to purchase (anyone over the age of 12) for those able to afford to do so.
  2. If you feel unwell, or have been in close contact with someone who is (or has tested positive for COVID), don’t go out and risk infecting others – whether with SARS-CoV2, influenza or anything else.
  3. Before visiting others, especially anyone elderly or otherwise vulnerable, take a COVID test if you can.
  4. When you meet others, make sure the setting is as well-ventilated as possible.
  5. Where possible, wear a mask in crowded indoor situations, especially where air quality may be poor (e.g. public transport)

These immediate measures need to be combined in the longer term with Government investment to make public spaces (social, educational and workplace) safe through ventilation and air filtration, providing free tests and masks for those unable to afford them, and an effective public communication campaign about the symptoms associated with current variants. These are critical steps needed to reduce the likelihood of people transmitting SARS-CoV2, becoming seriously ill and/or dying from COVID-19. Finally, many, even without severe infections, may suffer long-term health problems due to long COVID.

DJ, western countries did give up on testing, masks...more money for wars means less money for healthcare, ventilation...Even political dogmatic stupidity in the way of a right to work/study from home in many places...

What is the point of only testing flights from China if "we have to live" with the virus ? If-at best-passengers might be "advised" to isolate...Eventough a basic -insane- idea is "catching the virus would provide immunity"...wich by now should be clear is simply wrong ! People can get CoViD over and over again...people may catch several variants causing more mutations/recombinations...exponential growth...

RTÉ News

@rtenews
·
Exclusive footage filmed by RTÉ News shows the cramped and potentially unsafe conditions inside some of the country's overcrowded emergency departments. The secretly recorded material shows patients and staff navigating very challenging settings | Read: https://bit.ly/3VP6hi1

DJ-From Ireland...corridors full with patients, shortage of masks ???? 

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data daily UK cases now under 200,000 per day based on self reporting...however;








In case you missed #WHN broadcast on XBB.1.5 last night covering key information about the variant's rapid spread, specific risks and what we can do with , Dr. David Berger , & host Katie Marsh. Watch: https://youtube.com/watch?v=c2FvLm0Hc2o

DJ also UK cases expected to increase again soon...

End of part 2 (try to watch the video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2FvLm0Hc2o[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2FvLm0Hc2o 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2023 at 5:06am

On the Please join us for our WHN Broadcast 5pm PT/ 8pm ET, with Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, who broke the news on XBB.1.5, Dr. David Berger, and host Katie Marsh. Send in your questions LIVE! video

-Good both guest underline there is a variant soup

-Dr. Berger repeats the need for masks...vaccines only-strategy...now even with hardly any testing is not effective. 

(The video reminds me of the Indie_SAGE YT video's but World Health Network still in early stage...Why can they not work with Indie_SAGE from the UK ?)

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/strep-a-news-more-scarlet-fever-infections-increasing-in-various-countries-not-just-uk-and-also-affecting-adults-now--australia,-canada-seeing-infecti[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/strep-a-news-more-scarlet-fever-infections-increasing-in-various-countries-not-just-uk-and-also-affecting-adults-now--australia,-canada-seeing-infecti underlining the medical problem now is much wider then "just CoviD".....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/search?r=42184075&p=3[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/search?r=42184075&p=3 M-Pox still ungoing...with FluTrackers latest reports from Colombia, Panama, Bolivia....most cases simply are not reported...

XBB.1.5 is not the only fastly growing variant we should be keeping an eye on! Fortunately Denmark is still sequencing a lot of samples fast. Around 3k per week! Plus, they have many of those variants around. A 🧵 on BR.2.1, CH.1.1(.1), XAY.2, XBB.1.5, XBC.1, XBF and XBK!

-

CH.1.1* has the highest percentage of those. That makes sense, since it's very common in the UK. But it doesn't seem to grow as fast as DeltaOmicron recombinant descendant XBC.1, which was very common in the Philippines and which is common and growing in Western Australia 2/6

-

I left out CH.1.1 and XAY.2. (XAY is originally from South Africa), to get a clearer view. You can see BR.2.1 growing as well, but not as fast as XBF. Those both come from Australia and are competing there, while BR.2.1 is the biggest in New South Wales and XBF in Victoria. 3/6

-

I added CH.1.1.1 to this chart (thanks to 

), which now shows the 4 fastest variants in Denmark All still at a low percentage, but as you can see XBB.1.5 (New York) is not a clear winner yet! Newish XBK (from the Netherlands?) is still called CJ.1 by Nextclade!

-

Their background is diverse: BR.2.1=BA.2.75.4.2.1 CH.1.1=BA.2.75.3.4.1.1.1 XAY=BA.2/Delta recombination XBB=BJ.1/BM.1.1=BA.2.10.1.1/BA.2.75.3.1.1 rec XBC=BA.2/Delta(AY.54) rec. XBF=BA.5.2.3/CJ.1=BA.5.2.3/BA.2.75.3.1.1.1.1 rec. XBK=BA.5.2/CJ.1=BA.5.2/BA.2.75.3.1.1.1.1 rec. 5/6

-

But: -They all have a Spike:F486 mutation. Mostly F486P, but CH.1.1(.1) has F486S and BR.2.1 has F486I -None of them has a 69/70 deletion in the spike, which makes them SGTP or non-SGTF -XAY.2, CH.1.1(.1) and BR.2.1 have a S:L452R mutation like BA.5*, while XBC.1 has L452M 6/6

-DJ, XBB.1.5 may get to much attention (US numbers as 40%+ of cases being XBB.1.5 turned out to be based on a model...real number is lower !) 

One way (read Govts' way) of smashing the COVID peak is to just stop testing. I wish the virus, like humans, would also fall in this trap and stop evolving.

and

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
·
Hospitalization ⬆️2x surging—but cases flat?? What’s going is testing has crashed and #COVID19 case numbers unreliable. ➡️Hospital and wastewater in MA don’t lie. Uncoupling—but in the WRONG WAY… opposite of last year. 📌Driven by #XBB15 strain. Don’t ignore the #Kraken#MaskUp

DJ...








Absolutely shocked by the mode of transmission error here in Scotland. Covid is airborne. You cannot control an outbreak with the wrong measures 

The basic problem is politics not taking infectious disease/public health serious...experts (WHO) disagreement...(WHO still pushing non-airborne spread...). [url]https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2023/01/china-covid-19-travel-policy-restrictions/672668/[/url] or https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2023/01/china-covid-19-travel-policy-restrictions/672668/ ;Restrictions can delay the spread of a variant only if they are implemented while cases are low and before travelers have had a chance to spread it.

-

The country deploying them must have low levels of spread and good control policies, and the restrictions must be applied to all other nations, as opposed to just one. Neither of these conditions is being met right now by any country deploying travel measures against China. Even if a single-point ban did serve some useful purpose, the rules in place for China don’t add up.

DJ....will we ever learn ? 

End of part 3

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2023 at 1:22pm

Thanks, DJ!  Excellent research as always. 

"Russian Flu" may well have been a bovine coronavirus, and since this outbreak occurred before modern virology tools were developed, scientists tended to call it a "flu."   

I think the hypothesis that Russian Flu eventually de-volved into the common cold is credible, and SARS-CoV2 may also go in that direction.  However, we have a way to go before that happens. 

I'm watching China, it is a huge virus factory.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2023 at 11:46pm

CRS, DrPH, thanks for your reaction....this "once a forum" has become a "one person show" to much...different views, info/input may result in a more interesting forum. 

If I look at the present healthcrises the big picture of course is failing strategies...

If "politics", "strategies" fail they may fail on more points....

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-huge-temperature-rise-threatens-to-unfold-soon.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-huge-temperature-rise-threatens-to-unfold-soon.html in western Europe it has been much to warm for some time...Extreme cold in parts of US, Canada are linked to jet-streams being disrupted...it was colder in large parts of the US -last week- then on the North Pole....

Antarctic sea ice extent is currently at a record low for the time of year (see image on the right, adapted from NSIDC). 

Antarctic sea ice extent reached a record low on February 25, 2022, and Antarctic sea ice extent looks set to get even lower this year. The dangerous situation in Antarctica is discussed in more detail in a recent post

DJ...exponential changes when you look back, step before 100% was just 50%, before that 25%, before that "just"12,5%, 6,25% of "an event"...collapses have a "snowball effect" moving into avalanches, tsunami-like events...

Loss of sea ice results in loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer that - when present - consumes ocean heat as the sea ice melts. These combined losses could result in a large additional temperature rise, while there are further contributors to the temperature rise, such as thawing of terrestrial permafrost and associated changes such as deformation of the Jet Stream and additional ocean heat moving into the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

The image below is from tropicaltidbits.com and shows a forecast for September 2023 of the 2-meter temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius and based on 1984-2009 model climatology. The anomalies are forecast to be very high for the Arctic Ocean, as well as for the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, which spells bad news for sea ice at both hemispheres.

DJ...the article mentions global average temperature could be +5C above "pre-industrial baseline" by 2026...My point is; lack of imagination may hinder us getting a realistic view of the risks....

-On the international front; I will update there in general discussion. My own view in short;

 -Russia, China may go for internationalization of conflicts; Chinese (Korean, Iran other) forces will join the Russian forces in the fight against NATO forces in Ukraine (Over 15,000 Polish troops fighting on Ukraine side, US, UK others "very much involved"). 

 -Russia may go for a strategy-short term-to cut of western supplies into Ukraine. So cut of logistics by moving along the Polish, Romanian (NATO) borders...The situation already is that bad that if NATO would escalate towards nuclear war Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, others may be willing to accept that risk. Be prepared for it...

 -Russia, China may go for a blockade of Taiwan. The initial Bejing idea of "integration of Taiwan by 2040" could become impossible if the US (like Japan till 1945) uses Taiwan as an anti-China base.

 -Fiat-currencies are western weak spot. Ukraine is getting beaten by slowly destroying all of its army. Ukraine sending fresh troops to battle lines only to see them destroyed by Russian artillery. Western economies are slowly destroyed by dumping of western currencies, "The rest" taking over most of energy, resources

DJ, The west is facing total collapse soon-in months...is in denial...

CRS, DrPH -on the pandemic;

There are 4 known corona-cold virusses. My idea is they may have been cold virusses all the time...The Russian Flu may have been a flu...we may almost hope it was a bovine corona-virus...because it would offer us at least some perspective on a "natural way" out of the present-worsening-health crisis...

"Living with the virus" as a strategy-based on the idea that at the end SARS-2 will develop into a milder disease may be a gamble not based on realism. For now we moved from "waves with one "Variant of Concern" (Alpha, Beta, Delta etc.) into a "variant soup" all named "Omicron" for political reasons (by the WHO...). 

[url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma ;

XBB.1.5 is not the only fastly growing variant we should be keeping an eye on! Fortunately Denmark is still sequencing a lot of samples fast. Around 3k per week! Plus, they have many of those variants around. A 🧵 on BR.2.1, CH.1.1(.1), XAY.2, XBB.1.5, XBC.1, XBF and XBK!

-

CH.1.1* has the highest percentage of those. That makes sense, since it's very common in the UK. But it doesn't seem to grow as fast as DeltaOmicron recombinant descendant XBC.1, which was very common in the Philippines and which is common and growing in Western Australia

-

I left out CH.1.1 and XAY.2. (XAY is originally from South Africa), to get a clearer view. You can see BR.2.1 growing as well, but not as fast as XBF. Those both come from Australia and are competing there, while BR.2.1 is the biggest in New South Wales and XBF in Victoria.

-

I added CH.1.1.1 to this chart (thanks to 

), which now shows the 4 fastest variants in Denmark All still at a low percentage, but as you can see XBB.1.5 (New York) is not a clear winner yet! Newish XBK (from the Netherlands?) is still called CJ.1 by Nextclade!

DJ, XBB.1.5 -from the US- may be a major risk for the UK/Europe...but lots of variants....[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-new-sars-cov-2-variants-in-china-bf-7-14-and-ba-5-2-48-found-to-driving-pneumonia-and-ards-but-fake-virologist-claiming-they-are-mild[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-new-sars-cov-2-variants-in-china-bf-7-14-and-ba-5-2-48-found-to-driving-pneumonia-and-ards-but-fake-virologist-claiming-they-are-mild and -yes- some come from China...most high risk variants may developing right here in "the west" as an outcome of giving up testing, masks...based on the idea "natural immunity" may end the pandemic, "at the end it has to get milder"...

So-if we are wrong in "natural immunity, getting milder" we are on our way -also- towards healthcare collapse...

Immunity weakened by CoViD infections already opening the doors to all kinds of other diseases...Monkey/M-pox just one of them...Like we have seen in a.o. India fungal infections, bacterial infections "out of control"...

How long do we have ?????

Maybe I am to pessimistic, but the "mega-mix" of disasters and the total lack of realistic strategies to deal with it (buying time by creating fiat-money) could make 2023 "our last year"...

These developments and feedbacks could jointly cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of as much as 18.44°C by 2026, as discussed at the Extinction page. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post and underpinned by this post.


The situation is dire and threatens to turn catastrophic soon. The right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.

DJ...we ignore the "collapse risks" because it is an event to large to "fit in our way of thinking"...We have to change the way we think NOW !!!


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2023 at 12:29am

The Internet has/had some problems...I could reach other sites-however not this one...january 9, 

DJ-A few links in Dutch (google translate works well for translating to English) ;

[url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/te-veel-opnames-in-korte-tijd-patienten-overnachten-noodgedwongen-op-spoedeisende-hulp-dit-wil-je-niet~a43915b7/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/te-veel-opnames-in-korte-tijd-patienten-overnachten-noodgedwongen-op-spoedeisende-hulp-dit-wil-je-niet~a43915b7/  and [url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/griepgolf-slaat-extra-hard-toe-in-ziekenhuis-door-hoog-verzuim-kaartenhuis-kan-elke-dag-instorten~a29055cf/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/griepgolf-slaat-extra-hard-toe-in-ziekenhuis-door-hoog-verzuim-kaartenhuis-kan-elke-dag-instorten~a29055cf/ 

[url]https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/[/url] or https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/ still has the info from january 3...I expect NL cases of CoViD to increase. A.o. XBB.1.5 imported from the US may increase in Europe by spread. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/pneumonia/record-covid-deaths-in-japan-pneumonia-increases-in-italy/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/pneumonia/record-covid-deaths-in-japan-pneumonia-increases-in-italy/ 

Just two days ago, the WHO warned of an increase in Covid deaths across the globe. We’ve taken a look at where those increases in Covid deaths are most pronounced, and whether is there more to come with the rapid spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants such as XBB.1.5.

Firstly, Japan’s record-breaking wave of Covid deaths continues. Japan’s eighth wave looked to have peaked a few days ago, but is now increasing once again.  The US, Hong Kong, Germany and Denmark are also seeing increases in Covid mortality over the past two weeks.

The uptick in Covid deaths across the globe can be seen in the chart below. It’s not a huge wave compared to previous winters, but it is steadily growing.

DJ, BF.7 is another variant increasing in lots of places. Some "media" push a China=bad mantra...UK "media" busy with "prince/mass murderer"harry....while UK is sinking (also) into a healthcare crisis...








A&E doctors: 'This isn't healthcare, it's a lottery whether you will survive' - Liverpool Echo

So since "western media" has been pushing "pandemic is over non-sense" now they go for "look the other way-royals/China..."...Politics/media have made matters so much worse...

New Paper: Mass testing to end the COVID-19 public health threat “many countries have let the virus spread more or less freely, individuals and communities are now grappling with many negative health effects & economic ramifications  #COVID19 #Testing

link; [url]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776222002708[/url] or https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776222002708 ;

After a period where many countries have let the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread more or less freely, individuals and communities are now grappling with the many negative health effects and economic ramifications from high levels of illness over long periods. 

As evidence of the detrimental long-term effects of the virus mount, it is increasingly clear that the policy vacuum comes at an unacceptable price both in the short and long term; its only justification would be if there was no other alternative that did not come at an even greater cost. 

Entering the cold season, the number of infections will most likely increase significantly in Europe (≈ one – two order of magnitude in 2021). While the world awaits and hopes for new and more effective vaccines, we need tools in the toolbox that can effectively control transmission of rapidly spreading new variants, especially if more pathogenic. 

Otherwise, we may face significant disruptions and enormous costs due to repeated waves of illness, with each wave increasing the numbers of workers thrown out of the workforce from long term health effects. Lockdowns, due to their social restrictions and high short-term economic costs, are no longer the best available option. 

We here point out that mass testing (regular asymptomatic screening of the general population) is an alternative approach that can dramatically reduce cases and quickly restore economic and social activity.

DJ...sewage/waste water sampling could/should be part of such a plan...

"Non-intrusive HEPA purification in restaurants, retail and workplaces and masking where needed, should continue for robustness in preventing new outbreaks. #COVID19 #TESTING 

DJ-by now the main problem-in my view- is the (non-science) idea of "it will turn into a cold-virus"....YES-there are 4 known corona-cold virusses in humans...but they may have been relatively mild since they jumped into humans and started spreading...This does NOT mean CoViD-19 will develop into a cold-like illness....

England - 40% Covid reinfection rate.

and

tern

@1goodtern
·
I'm old enough to remember when people said you had to catch SARS-CoV-2 so you wouldn't catch SARS-CoV-2 again.

should have ended any idea of "herd/group-immunity"after infection...In general the idea of "catching any infection to get immunity" is very wrong ! 

DJ-Some of the people I follow on twitter now taking a break...I think it is only wisdom that-when possible-you take some distance from these unfolding crises...

Long-CoViD by now is the main form of CoViD in most places...but-like with ME-CFS-"psychologists see it as a bussinessmodel"...disgusting !

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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january 10......

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-new-recombinant-variant-xbl-with-spike-mutation-f486p-identified-in-malaysia-locals-nicknaming-it-the-hantu-besar-variant[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-new-recombinant-variant-xbl-with-spike-mutation-f486p-identified-in-malaysia-locals-nicknaming-it-the-hantu-besar-variant (TMN) seems to be spreading fast...a.o. in Malaysia...Since lots of countries did give up testing-with that sequencing-it may be spreading in lots of places....

Raj Rajnarayanan

@RajlabN
·
A sandwich to go with the variant soup! Meet Omicron's new family member: XBL - A recombinant sandwich - XBB.1*/BA.2.75*/XBB.1* mainly in #Malaysia  Only a few sequences but Spike looks like XBB.1.5 https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/1532

and









XBL variant  - a recombinant of a recombinant...

DJ...XBL has a lot of similarities with the US high spread XBB.1.5 ...however "lots of other variants" very likely spreading...Also "very likely" not only in humans....TMN made the (I think "good/valid") point SARS-2 still linking to ACE-2 receptors SARS-3 will use-most-other receptors...may be on its way....

On XBB.1.5 in US/Europe/Israel see [url]https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1612452086607642625/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1612452086607642625/photo/1 

Still [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps excess deaths-very high in Germany, France in the EuroMomo-statistics, 10-15% above "the norm"...in the official "politics/media/experts for sale" story is NOT related to CoViD out of control....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory M-Pox behaving different is also "not linked to CoViD" and also "over"...

Please.....

As far as there is still any testing;

XBB.1.5% in the UK at 10%..

and

Tom Wenseleers

@TWenseleers
·
The 0.3 on that graph is a proportion I think @Tuliodna : 30%. The nowcast from my multinomial spline fits is that XBB.1.5% in the UK today is at 10% [6-13%], https://github.com/tomwenseleers/LineageExplorer/blob/main/plots/GISAID/COVSPECTRUM%20fitted%20lineage%20frequencies%20global%20multinomial%20fit.csv. Code is publicly available in my github, https://github.com/tomwenseleers/LineageExplorer.

DJ...lots of "experts" still doing the best they can to do "science" and provide a realistic picture of where we are in this global health collapse....








Replying to 
1-  &  have been working a lot in that space. Mike communicates this regularly. Josette actually flagged our own BR.2 to be designated BR2.1.  is helping with beautiful figures like this.

link; [url]https://twitter.com/StuartTurville/status/1612684688803655680/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/StuartTurville/status/1612684688803655680/photo/1 no...not modern art...trying to get some basic picture of the viral soup....XBB.1.5 very likely to be spreading in most of Europe by now...but "we" do not test so no samples for sequencing....

If you think this is bad....worse very likely on its way....From Chinese New Year to schools reopening...hospitals already overloaded with lots of infectious diseases expect much more bizarre new diseases...bacterial, fungal...H5N1 cases misdiagnosed...We only just begun....

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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When I finish with end of part 1 I could go for a part 2....








Important to note the track record here:  has been right about every previous variant. Each time, there has been much vociferous disagreement from other prominent experts, & every time Wenseleers projections have been vindicated.

and

Tom Wenseleers

@TWenseleers
·
Here is the current daily growth rate advantage (in % per day) of different variants relative to the dominant type BQ.1*. XBB.1.5* is the clear winner & this initial advantage is at least as large than the one that BQ.1* had at an equivalent share in the population.

DJ...newer variants could beat XBB.1.5 in receptor binding and/or  immune evasion...By now statistics -if there was testing- could indicate another wave...[url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/arnhem-e-o/ambulances-vaak-voor-dichte-deur-ziekenhuis-met-kindje-naar-venlo-moeten-rijden-kost-ons-een-dag~a0ae7a17/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/arnhem-e-o/ambulances-vaak-voor-dichte-deur-ziekenhuis-met-kindje-naar-venlo-moeten-rijden-kost-ons-een-dag~a0ae7a17/ NL-ambulances in NL find it harder to find hospitals still with beds & staff for new patients...or [url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/09/flu-epidemic-hitting-hospitals-extra-hard-due-high-absenteeism[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/09/flu-epidemic-hitting-hospitals-extra-hard-due-high-absenteeism "it is the flu"....

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data still indicating over 3 million active UK cases...XBB.1.5 a.o. expected to see increase of cases soon...








"You cannot simultaneously hold the position that the duties of healthcare workers are too important for them to strike, while also refusing to pay them a fair, decent salary" 

DJ, One of the reasons why the US may have such bad public health; immigration...there has been an inflow of young healthy workers...so why invest in keeping the aging workers healthy ? In the UK, NL "politics" rather import HCW-ers that provide a decent income....Some workers in hospital may have better perspectives in fast food and supermarkets...

Again-this pandemic is POLITICAL !!! That is why politics rather deny the problem...








ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 30 Dec. 1,563 more deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 2015-19 average. That’s 20% more. Bank holidays make this week harder to interpret. Year-to-date there have been 576,896 deaths recorded, 8% more than 2015-19 avg.

But "we have to live/die with it"...with most of the deaths in the poor....

Enough for today....totally disgusting !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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January 11-2023

Limited new news on CoViD...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-variant-which-is-more-transmissible-and-spreading-fast-will-not-wreak-much-havoc-as-compared-to-new-bf-and-ba-5-2-sublineages[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-variant-which-is-more-transmissible-and-spreading-fast-will-not-wreak-much-havoc-as-compared-to-new-bf-and-ba-5-2-sublineages but lots of aspects play a role...level of vaccinations-in what age groups...Ventilation in schools/workplaces ...

 It looks like XBB.1.5 has a higher growth rate in the UK than in the US, or is that an artifact of low sequence numbers/holiday blackouts?

DJ...pandemic-fatigue...








🚨More than 650,000 deaths were registered in UK🇬🇧 in 2022! 🚨9% more than 2019 👉This represents one of the largest excess death levels outside the pandemic in 50 years! 👉Data indicates pandemic effects on health and NHS pressures are among the leading explanations.

DJ...yes-no doubt the CoViD-pandemic will be a (major) factor...but so will be aging....[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3_bqcvDxvI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3_bqcvDxvI dr.john campbell trying to look into excess deaths statistics...not his strongest side...In Australia 60% of excess deaths did not have CoViD on the death-certificate; dr.j.c. then jumps to the (wrong) conclusion those deaths were "non-CoViD"...(very likely to claim a lot of excess deaths from vaccines...wich also is incorrect...). 








THREAD: latest Long Covid Data ONS has released its latest Long Covid stats. I'm just going to show results for those with Long Covid for *at least 12 weeks*. Numbers are steady but high, at just under 2 million people (about 3% of population). 1/6

DJ-viral persistance, damage due to CoViD can kill later on...There is NO clear definition for "CoViD case", oViD-death" or "Long CoViD"...this makes any realistic discussion harder...(dr.j.c. is using this to jump to incorrect conclusions...bad statistics-because of lack of testing, unclear definitions-results in unclear communication.). 








Even the BBC are admitting it now! “A number of studies have found people are more likely to have heart problems & strokes in the weeks & months after catching Covid, & some of these may not end up being linked to the virus when the death is registered”

Even the bbc (UK-RT state run media) can no longer lie about it...








I’m going to say it again: Those who tell NHS workers “if you don’t like it, leave” really won’t like it when even more of us do Trust me on this. You won’t like it when we’re gone Pay us properly. Retain us properly. Respect the work we do We are not easily replaceable

neo-liberals totally disrespect the public sector...Again this pandemic is the outcome of political stupidity...

DJ-There must be a lot of "Flu-Rona"...CoViD AND Flu infections...why is it not more in the news ? If there is NOT a lot of "flu-rona" than that itself would be very welcome good news...Given the very high excess deaths however I expect there will be a lot of people dealing with several infections at the same time...Testing/sequencing may be a problem. 

Good news: WHO urges travellers to wear masks as new COVID variant spreads Everyone should be safe.

DJ...masks do prevent a lot of infections/viral spread...By wearing a mask you may also end up protecting others when you later on find out you did have an infection yourself...

End for today...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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January 12........

Australia: “We’ve certainly seen people who have had COVID a few times: they’ve been hospitalised with their third or fourth or fifth infection and that’s the one that’s turned out to be more significant and more severe.”

link [url]https://www.smh.com.au/national/post-christmas-covid-wave-looms-as-some-get-infected-for-a-fifth-time-20221222-p5c86j.html[/url] or https://www.smh.com.au/national/post-christmas-covid-wave-looms-as-some-get-infected-for-a-fifth-time-20221222-p5c86j.html

Some Australians are battling their fifth bout of COVID-19 as the Christmas period fuels another surge of infections and newer sub-variants make it increasingly difficult to predict the latest wave.

For some, their re-infection is milder, but others are more sick with the virus than they’ve ever been.

DJ...even the best experts (virologists, epidemiologists etc) may run out of means to find out what variant(s) are doing what...In the earlier stages a "Variant Of Concern" may have had some subvariants...now we are dealing with a variant-soup...People may be infected by more then one (sub)variant at the same time....

[url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full lots of indications-by now-vaccines make matters even worse ??????? [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full 

and [url]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X22014931[/url] or https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X22014931 ;

Interpretation

This early warning system is the first to identify temporal associations for PE, AMI, DIC, and ITP following BNT162b2 vaccination in the elderly. Because an early warning system does not prove that the vaccines cause these outcomes, more robust epidemiologic studies with adjustment for confounding, including age and nursing home residency, are underway to further evaluate these signals. FDA strongly believes the potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination outweigh the potential risks of COVID-19 infection.

(a study in elderly to see how safety risks are. FDA publishes study surveillance data finds Pfizer COVID vaccine increases risk of lung blood clots 50%. Not a single major news source reports this If FDA reported any other drug increased lung blood clots 50% can you imagine our media staying silent?

may not be the correct interpretation...). 

DJ...By now we have run out of "defenses" against CoViD....masks may do the best-possible-job...








FDA task 1: drug approval decisions FDA task 2: drug surveillance to determine if they made a bad decision on task 1 potentially costing them their jobs “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” -Upton Sinclair

DJ...countries "playing with statistics" 








To  's point, see how Denmark managed to make it look like it does not have cases and still experience death rates as high as Japan. Currently higher than Japan in fact.

[url]https://twitter.com/DGBassani/status/1613294246592937986/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/DGBassani/status/1613294246592937986/photo/1 

However excess deaths numbers may tell another story....

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel
·
6) In Quebec, public health authorities seem to cling to the much lower COVID ICU burden since last winter as proof the #pandemic can be managed at this point. Unfortunately, this cherry-picking of data ignores the still-high number of deaths and rising hospitalizations overall.

But following this global healthcrisis is getting a lot harder...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 2, 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-drugs-study-shows-that-n-acetylcysteine-or-nac-is-an-effective-antiviral-and-immunomodulatory-drug-against-all-sars-cov-2-variants[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-drugs-study-shows-that-n-acetylcysteine-or-nac-is-an-effective-antiviral-and-immunomodulatory-drug-against-all-sars-cov-2-variants TMN has become that insulting in their writing I wonder if I can still put links....

From TMN [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.09.523209v1[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.09.523209v1 ;

Abstract

The high mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 leads to emergence of several variants, some of which are resistant to vaccines and drugs targeting viral elements. Targeting host dependency factors – cell proteins required for viral replication - would help avoid resistance. However, whether different SARS-CoV-2 variants induce conserved cell responses and exploit the same core host factors is still unclear.

We compared three variants of concern and observed that the host transcriptional response was conserved, differing only in kinetics and magnitude. By CRISPR screening we identified the host genes required for infection by each variant: most of the identified genes were shared by multiple variants, both in lung and colon cells. We validated our hits with small molecules and repurposed FDA-approved drugs. All drugs were highly effective against all tested variants, including delta and omicron, new variants that emerged during the study. Mechanistically, we identified ROS production as a pivotal step in early virus propagation. Antioxidant drugs, such as N-acetyl cysteine (NAC), were effective against all variants both in human lung cells, and in a humanised mouse model. Our study strongly supports the immediate use of available antioxidant drugs, such as NAC, as a general and effective anti-COVID-19 approach.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

DJ...if we are no longer able to stop infections and spread at least damage-control would be welcome...

Also new (nasal/oral) vaccines could do better, China is testing one;

Naomi Wu 机械妖姬

@RealSexyCyborg
·
Got my booster today- the new CanSinoBio inhaled vaccine. Super easy, basically comes in a milk tea cup, you inhale, hold it, exhale- done. No taste really. Should improve vaccine rates here, and the efficacy is supposed to be decent.

So never give up hope in this pandemic....

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/who-rapid-risk-assessment-for-xbb-1-5-published/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/who-rapid-risk-assessment-for-xbb-1-5-published/ ;

Antibody escape

Along with BQ.1 * variants, XBB * variants are the most antibody-resistant variants to date. 2–4 Using pseudotyped virus neutralization assays, XBB.1.5 is shown to be equally immune evasive as XBB.1, the Omicron subvariant with the highest immune escape to date. 7 These data reported that sera from individuals with a) BA.1, b) BA.5 or c) BF.7 breakthrough infection and three doses of the inactivated vaccine (Coronavac) or d) BA.5 infection following three or four doses of mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) do not induce high neutralization titers against XBB.1.5. 5 There is currently no data on real world vaccine effectiveness against severe disease or death.

DJ, both growth and severity risks seen as "low" by the WHO, escape risk "moderate"....I think the problem may be in lots of variants, very likely lots of CoViD co-infections, lots of people catching CoViD and flu or other diseases...The general idea was infected people may see decrease of immunity protection against other infections...

Here in NL ;

[url]https://twitter.com/AlmaTostmann/status/1613189455803809793/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/AlmaTostmann/status/1613189455803809793/photo/1 CoViD hospital cases-on the short term-may be decreasing..however on the longer term more CoViD cases end up in hospitals....Testing-and so sequencing-problematic...

In the UK;








We see that  has told  programme he is meeting with doctors later today. Actually he cancelled the 9am meeting we agreed so he could do media, and a further meeting is not yet agreed. Hopefully it will be soon.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credibility_gap[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credibility_gap

Credibility gap is a term that came into wide use with journalism, political and public discourse in the United States during the 1960s and 1970s. At the time, it was most frequently used to describe public skepticism about the Lyndon B. Johnson administration's statements and policies on the Vietnam War.[1] It was used in journalism as a euphemism for recognized lies told to the public by politicians. Today, it is used more generally to describe almost any "gap" between an actual situation and what politicians and government agencies say about it.[2][3]

comes to my mind....Are "we" pushing for more wars because we totally failed in pandemics ? 








🚨 We are back after break this week and will be discussing Covid immunology, hybrid immunity & vaccines. Send us your questions via DM or email it to us on questions@independentsage.org See you all on Friday!

Good info is always very welcome...

I do not know what to think of this claim; [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bulletin-flash-urgent-w-h-o-meeting-in-secret-to-convert-themselves-to-enforceable-law-under-existing-treaty[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bulletin-flash-urgent-w-h-o-meeting-in-secret-to-convert-themselves-to-enforceable-law-under-existing-treaty ;

The International Health Regulations Review Committee (IHRRC) of the World Health Organization (WHO) is planning to meet in secret from Monday, January 9, 2023 to Friday January 13, 2023. The IHRRC will be working to finalize what is now a 46 page document that includes proposed amendments to the International Health Regulations (IHR).

The proposed amendments would:

  • Change the overall nature of the World Health Organization from an advisory organization that merely makes recommendations to a governing body whose proclamations would be legally-binding. (Article 1)
  • Greatly expand the scope of the International Health Regulations to include scenarios that merely have a “potential to impact public health.”
  • Seek to remove “respect for dignity, human rights and fundamental freedoms of people.” (Article 3)
  • Give the Director General of the WHO control over the means of production through an “allocation plan for health products” to require developed states parties to supply pandemic response products as directed. (Article 13A)
  • Give the WHO the authority to require medical examinations, proof of prophylaxis, proof of vaccine and to implement contact tracing, quarantine and TREATMENT. (Article 18)
  • Institute a system of global health certificates in digital or paper format, including test certificates, vaccine certificates, prophylaxis certificates, recovery certificates, passenger locator forms and a traveller’s health declaration. (Articles 18, 23, 24, 27, 28, 31, 35, 36 and 44 and Annexes 6, 7 and 8)
  • Redirect unspecified billions of dollars to the Pharmaceutical Hospital Emergency Industrial Complex with no accountability. (Article 44A)
  • Allow the disclosure of personal health data. (Article 45)
  • Greatly expand the World Health Organization’s capacity to censor what they consider to be mis-information and dis-information. (Annex 1, page 36)
  • Create an obligation to build, provide, and maintain, IHR infrastructure at points of entry TO ENABLE THE W.H.O. TO UNDERTAKE THIS CENSORSHIP (Annex 10)


The 76th World Health Assembly is scheduled to occur from Sunday May 21, 2023 to Tuesday May 30, 2023. In order for the proposed amendments to be considered during the 76th World Health Assembly, they must be submitted to the World Health Organization at least 4 months in advance.

The IHRRC plans to submit these proposed amendments to the WHO by Sunday, January 15, 2023.

The International Health Regulations are existing, legally-binding international law. If the proposed amendments are presented to the 76th World Health Assembly, they could be adopted by a simple majority of the 194 member nations. According to the already agreed upon rules of the IHR, if the proposed amendments are adopted, the member nations would not need to take any additional actions.

The United States Senate would not be required to provide a two-thirds vote to give their “advice and consent.” No signatures by national leaders would be needed.

 

Hal Turner Editorial Opinion

This is precisely how all the elected politicians around the world intend to FORCE Vaccines on everyone, FORCE Vaccine Passports, and FORCE quarantines; by DELEGATING those powers to unelected people at the World Health Organization, then telling YOU "Our hands are tied, this is required by International Law and Treaty, we have no power to stop it."

DJ...there has to be room to ask questions....[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/uk-mp-andrew-bridgen-loses-tory-whip-over-covid-vaccine-statements/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/uk-mp-andrew-bridgen-loses-tory-whip-over-covid-vaccine-statements/ 

"It ain't what you say, itś the way that you say it".....In my-very limited non-expert view "transport" is the weakest spot in the pandemic cycle of infection-transport-host...So more NPI, masks etc may be more effective then vaccines...By now we need all the tools we have-international cooperation could be a way out...

End of part 2


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 11 2023 at 11:49pm

part 3

Uganda did stop Ebola...so it is possible to stop a highly infectious disease in a country with limited means...

[url]https://todayafricanews.com/blog/2023/01/11/uganda-declares-end-of-ebola-disease-outbreak/[/url] or https://todayafricanews.com/blog/2023/01/11/uganda-declares-end-of-ebola-disease-outbreak/ 








When public health actions work, they appear to many unimportant, precisely because they are successful. The defeat of Ebola in Uganda is important: An essential lesson for what we need to do in many contexts in taking societal action.

DJ..denial is not a strategy....Somehow maybe countries kept poor have less economic consequences and may be willing to put public health above profits ("the economy")....








The medic, who wants to remain anonymous, said A&E patients are now waiting up to 20 hours in hospital to be seen and 28 hours to get a bed. They said elderly people are frequently stuck in chairs overnight while wards full of flu patients “remind me of the horrors of Covid”.

DJ...is there still some testing in hospitals ? In time ? Or do people infect eachother while waiting to see some basic care ? By now lots of countries face a hospital crisis..."politics" go for Ukraine-escalation...In Poland some claims medical care now mostly dealing with-possibly- over 3 million Ukraine refugees...

Of course NATO starting/provoking even more wars in times of pandemic results in more refugees....








The Covid bivalent vaccine booster works better than expected. I've reviewed the cumulative data https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-bivalent-vaccine-booster-outperforms That's in contrast to a  essay today and 2 lab studies that used a pseudovirus assay without assessing the XBB variants

link [url]https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-bivalent-vaccine-booster-outperforms[/url] or https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-bivalent-vaccine-booster-outperforms ...A US study claimed more vaccinations did see increase of risk on catching CoViD....

[url]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(22)00407-6/fulltext[/url] or https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(22)00407-6/fulltext ;

Interpretation

Both our retrospective and prospective analyses support the safety of the second booster, with our findings reflecting physicians' diagnoses, patients' objective physiological measures, and patients' subjective reactions. We believe this study provides safety assurances to the global population who are eligible to receive an additional COVID-19 booster inoculation. These assurances can help increase the number of high-risk individuals who opt to receive this booster vaccine and thereby prevent severe outcomes associated with COVID-19.

DJ  I welcome an open discussion on safety and effect of vaccines...But this is -for me- above what I understand....








"2023 will be the year of variant prediction"  tells  the evolution of coronaviruses over time make emerging variants difficult to predict & will create a challenge for #Covid-19 vaccination campaigns 🔬 😷💉

DJ...What I do understand is limits to what present vaccines may offer...protection may be far from perfect....

LBC

@LBC
·
'We don't accept those figures.' Health Secretary Steve Barclay dismisses ONS figures that state last year was one of the UK's highest death tolls ever recorded outside of the pandemic. @NickFerrariLBC | @SteveBarclay

-








“More than 650,000 deaths were registered in the UK in 2022 - 9% more than 2019. This represents one of the largest excess death levels outside the pandemic in 50 years.”

UK "government" again very selective....of course this CoViD pandemic is NOT over...history may indicate also H1N1-Spanish Flu took years....

End of part 3....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 12 2023 at 10:27pm

DJ-Friday the 13th...a good day to put highest risks on a sort of list ? What is most likely a risk for you or me ? 

-1 Nuclear war...in "International situation"  (general discussion) my view; US-biden-pushing also for war with China. The US pulled NATO in wars with Russia, Iran, Syria...for now "the rest of the world" may be buying time while preparing for the coming conflict...

-2 Healthcrisis; logistics on medication is a fast growing problem. "Governments" out of "neo-liberal insanity" not willing to spent tax money on anything public are destroying public healthcare ....Yes-often spending on care did increase...because "healthcare had to make profits...so tax money ending up with interim managers, "specialists-for-sale"...while most HCW-ers see their income decrease because of high inflation (war related)...lots of hospital/care workers simply need to find another job to survive....

Denial of problems-politics "CoViD is either endemic or mild" non-sense, shortage of medications may see someone near you-if not you-die....

-3 Climate disasters go on....a flooding here, a tornado there...Yes-we did see floods 100 years ago...the level of floods, storms etc. is changing. It will further affect food-production/distribution, logistics etc. In most cases stormdamage gets repaired...but it may take more and more time and money...

On pandemics;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/h5n1-tracking-ab/ecuador-aa/966807-ecuador-moh-confirms-human-infection-with-hpai-h5-january-10-2023[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/h5n1-tracking-ab/ecuador-aa/966807-ecuador-moh-confirms-human-infection-with-hpai-h5-january-10-2023 

and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/outbreak-news-scientists-warn-that-more-sporadic-cases-of-human-infections-of-avian-flu-h5n6-expected-in-2023-after-reported-cases-in-ecuador-and-chin[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/outbreak-news-scientists-warn-that-more-sporadic-cases-of-human-infections-of-avian-flu-h5n6-expected-in-2023-after-reported-cases-in-ecuador-and-chin a

DJ-How many human cases of H5 (H5N1, H5N6 most risky) will be missed/misdiagnosed ? Of course there have to be lots of cases of people/hosts catching BOTH CoViD and Flu..."Flurona" somehow not making the news (because of testing issues ? Does testing positive for the one, in the procedure, cause not testing for the other ?) The TMN article mentions so far known 65 H5N6 cases were detected, since 2014-resulting in 29 deaths....A TMN link ; [url]https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/wpro---documents/emergency/surveillance/avian-influenza/ai_20230106.pdf[/url] or https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/wpro---documents/emergency/surveillance/avian-influenza/ai_20230106.pdf has lots of -different-flu types most seen in birds but spreading to other species-so far-on a limited scale....(WHO;)

As of 5 January 2023, a total of 240 cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N1) virus have been reported from four countries within the Western Pacific Region since January 2003 (Table 1). Of these cases, 135 were fatal, resulting in a case fatality rate (CFR) of 56%. The last case was reported from China, with an onset date of 22 September 2022 and died on 18 October 2022. This is the first case of avian influenza A(H5N1) reported from China since 2015.

-

Human infection with avian influenza 

A(H3N8) virus Between 23 December 2022 and 5 January 2023, no new cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H3N8) virus were reported to WHO in the Western Pacific Region. To date, a total of 2 laboratoryconfirmed cases of human infection with influenza A(H3N8) virus with no deaths have been reported to WHO in the Western Pacific Region. Human infection with avian influenza 

A(H7N4) virus in China Between 23 December 2022 and 5 January 2023, no new cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N4) virus were reported to WHO in the Western Pacific Region. To date, only one laboratoryconfirmed case of human infection with influenza A(H7N4) virus has been reported to WHO. This case was reported from China on 14 February 2018. Human infection with avian influenza 

A(H7N9) virus in China Between23 December 2022 and 5 January 2023, no new cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus were reported to WHO in the Western Pacific Region. To date, a total of 1,568 laboratoryconfirmed human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus including 616 fatal cases (CFR: 39%) have been reported to WHO since early 2013. The last case of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) reported to WHO in the Western Pacific Region was in 2019.

and (WHO link);

Human infection with avian influenza A(H9N2) virus Between 23 December 2022 and 5 January 2023, three new cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H9N2) were reported to WHO in the Western Pacific Region.

The first case is a 58-year-old male farmer from Wugang, Hunan province with onset of illness on 19 October 2022. At the time of reporting, the symptoms were severe, and the case was hospitalized on 19 October 2022. The case had exposure to live poultry market. There have been no reported cases in the rest of the family.

The second case is a 5-year-old female from Dingxi, Gansu Province with onset of illness on 23 October 2022. At the time of reporting, the symptoms were reported to be mild. The source of exposure to the virus remains unknown. There have been no reported cases in the rest of the family.

The third case is a 3-year-old male from Hainan, Anhui Province with onset of illness on 13 November 2022. At the time of reporting, the symptoms were reported to be mild. The case had exposure to live poultry market. There have been no reported cases in the rest of the family.

To date, a total of 82 cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H9N2) including two deaths (both with underlying conditions have been reported to WHO in the Western Pacific Region since December 2015. Of these, 77 were reported from China and two were reported from Cambodia. The last case was reported from China, with an onset date of 20 September 2022 and has since recovered.

Human infection with avian influenza A(H10N3) virus Between 23 December 2022 and 5 January 2023, no new cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H10N3) virus were reported to WHO in the Western Pacific Region. 

To date, two cases of avian influenza A(H10N3) virus has been reported globally. Most previously reported human infections with avian influenza viruses were due to exposure to infected poultry or contaminated environments. Since avian influenza viruses, including avian influenza A(H10N3) viruses, continue to be detected in poultry populations, further sporadic human cases could be detected in the future. 

Currently available epidemiologic information suggests that the avian influenza A(H10N3) virus has not acquired the ability for sustained human-to-human transmission, thus the likelihood of spread among human is low.

Animal infection with avian influenza virus Between 23 December 2022 and 5 January 2023, there has been one new outbreak of high pathogenicity avian influenza among birds reported to WOAH from the Western Pacific Region. On 23 December 2022 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 (N untyped) was detected in an Eastern Buzzard (WILD) in Seiro Town, Niigata, Japan. Surveillance was initiated within and outside of the restriction zone and official disposal of carcasses (Source).

DJ, not only all kinds of flu-types in non human hosts, but also lots of other diseases could be "close" to spreading/infecting "new hosts"...It is a ticking timebomb...

End of part 1

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DJ, Ignoring risks is not a sign of optimism but of stupidity....Exploiting risks for profits is even more crazy....it can bring lots of profits in the short term but will fail to solve any problem in the longer term...

Hotez: 'People are saying this will be mild. It's not mild. With 400 or 500 deaths a day, that’s getting up to 150,000 to 200,000 a year, which is four- or five-times higher than the worst flu season. That’s not good.'

link; [url]https://www.houstonchronicle.com/lifestyle/renew-houston/health/article/Peter-Hotez-COVID-XBB15-variant-vaccine-booster-17707273.php[/url] or https://www.houstonchronicle.com/lifestyle/renew-houston/health/article/Peter-Hotez-COVID-XBB15-variant-vaccine-booster-17707273.php 

After a fall that brought several new “Scrabble variants" of COVID-19, Dr. Peter Hotez has a more focused concern in 2023 with the emergence of XBB1.5 — as well as what may come next from China, where a late-December estimate from the country’s health officials  suggested 37 million new infections a day.

Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital, discussed the new variant, what could be emerging from China and his ongoing conflict with what he describes as “anti-science aggression.” (This conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.)

I was hoping 2022 wouldn’t be as bad as 2021, and unfortunately it turned out to be almost as bad. That first omicron wave a year ago, the first months of 2022, was a disaster with a huge number of deaths. That was disturbing and disappointing. After the terrible delta wave in 2021, I didn’t think it could get worse, and it almost did. I’m hopeful 2023 won’t be as bad as 2022, but it’s not starting out great.

-

I think people are saying this will be mild. It’s not mild. Do the math: With 400 or 500 deaths a day, that’s getting up to 150,000 to 200,000 a year, which is four- or five-times higher than the worst flu season. That’s not good. Even without 2,000 to 3,000 deaths a day, we’re still seeing a lot of hospitalizations, a lot of long COVID. The bottom line is that if you haven’t gotten your bivalent booster, there’s time, but you’ve got to get it soon or you’re at risk for hospitalization. With the new XBB1.5 subvariant, the goalposts have moved. That’s the reality of it.

Before you just had to be vaccinated, but that won’t cut it anymore. The antibodies to the original lineage don’t seem to offer much cross-protection against this new subvariant. If you get a breakthrough infection, there will be some help because you get some epitope broadening, as it’s called. This is a long way of saying, "Get your bivalent booster." That’s what is most important. The early data from November, pre-XBB1.5 from the CDC shows that people who get the bivalent booster have 18.6 times reduction of risk of being hospitalized. It’s not quite as good as that for XBB1.5, but it should have benefits there, too.

-

The problem with these mRNA boosters is that they’re not holding up as well in terms of durability as we’d like, about four to six months. One of the most common questions I’m asked, “Hey, doc, I was an early adopter and got my bivalent vaccine in September . . . does that mean I need a second one in February?” My answer is hopefully we’ll get some opinion from the CDC and FDA. There’s a VRBPAC (Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee) meeting coming up, and they may decide a second bivalent booster is useful. But it all becomes very theoretical because only 15 percent of Americans have gotten the first bivalent vaccine.

-

Q: Where do you think we’d be today with no vaccine?

A: Well, we actually now have data. My colleague, Alison Galvani, is the mathematical epidemiologist at Yale, and her work suggests the COVID vaccine has prevented 3.1 million deaths. So instead of talking 1.1 million, we’re talking about 4.2 or 4.3 million deaths. Not to mention entire hospitals and clinics you’d have to create for all the additional long COVID sufferers. No question these vaccines saved our whole health system from collapsing. We don’t talk about that enough.

DJ, Some remarks;

-This pandemic-in many ways-is new for even the best virologists, epidemiologists etc. it may not make them the best "pandemic experts" because the scale of the pandemics did get that big....[url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam is a Complex Systems Physicist 

DJ, also medical historians with knowledge on earlier pandemics (and with medical knowledge) may be of use....

-There is a lot of "discussion" on vaccines. In the US that discussion got off the rails...a pseudo vaccine-religion war still is going on. With the US pushing for even mandatory vaccinations for all...even China does NOT go for mandatory vaccines ! My-non expert view-vaccines are only one tool in the "pandemic toolbox". If discussions on vaccines become an even bigger problem standing in the way of getting out of this pandemic it may be time for de-escalation. 

In a global crisis public health has to go before making profits out of that crisis...AstraZeneca was willing to give up profits on vaccines...why m-RNA vaccines still have to go for profits ? 

-Non sterilizing vaccines alone NEVER could get us out of this pandemic ! At best they may limit damage on the short term while we see mutations toward vaccine-immunity escape beig selected on the longer term...

-My view is "politics" does not take pandemics, public health risks, serious enough....When one looks at the last 2000 years of human history even the Spanish Flu (1927-1923 may indicate better the duration...pandemics take time !) -killing 2% to 5%  of all humans- was "mild"....Infectious diseases can END humans ! Somehow that point seems hard to realize for a lot of medical experts....

DJ-Questions on vaccines are not "misinformation" but deserve an answer. We are still learning a lot on longer term effects of vaccines...

Axing the ONS infection survey would be a MASSIVE mistake. Instead of cutting it we should be EXPANDING it - we have an opportunity for an incredible public health tool. Let's add Flu, RSV & other resp viruses and really understand their seasonality  1/2

DJ, UK hospitals out of capacity and then decrease testing/monitoring is insane...(insanity the new normal ?)








🚨 We are back after break this week and will be discussing Covid immunology, hybrid immunity & vaccines. Send us your questions via DM or email it to us on questions@independentsage.org See you all on Friday!

DJ, one of the limited -good- sources of information...will also be on YouTube (if not censored or behind a paywall...)....

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data self-reporting of symptoms may be one of the better indicators; UK cases still decreasing. Expected soon to increase a.o. from XBB.1.5 (or even other, newer variants ...there must be lots of XBB.1.5 subvariants as well...)

End of part 2

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2023 at 3:16am

january 14, 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/a-huge-wave-of-covid-19-deaths-is-rolling-across-the-globe/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/a-huge-wave-of-covid-19-deaths-is-rolling-across-the-globe/

A huge winter wave of Covid deaths is spreading across the world, almost entirely unreported by the mainstream media.

Scandinavia seems to have a particular problem with Covid at the moment. Sweden has just recorded its highest-ever daily figure for Covid-19 deaths. 503 people were reported to have died from Covid on January 12th 2023.

Even though this high number may take into account previously unreported deaths from over the holiday period, this is not Sweden’s first holiday period with Covid-19.

-

Several Asian countries are having major problems with Covid. The rise in Macao’s 7-day rolling average for Covid deaths is simply off the charts.

Hong Kong is seeing its second-largest wave of Covid deaths.

Thailand is also reporting its second-highest wave of Covid deaths.

-

China is resolutely sticking to its policy of not releasing any details about the scale of its Covid epidemic, despite repeated requests for information by the World Health Organisation. Reports of 90% infection rates in some areas of China seem entirely credible, and the numbers of Covid-19 dead will undoubtedly be horrendous.

So what do these global figures tell us? They tell us that the current wave of Covid is probably as big, if not bigger, than the original Omicron wave of 2021, and yet, curiously, almost no one seems to be aware of it. A determined campaign by governments to drive SARS-CoV-2 from the headlines is underway, so don’t expect to hear anything about this latest Covid wave from your favourite mainstream media outlet any time soon.

 

#CovidIsntOver

and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/ecdc-assessment-of-the-xbb-1-5-kraken-variant/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/ecdc-assessment-of-the-xbb-1-5-kraken-variant/ ;

The most likely explanation of the growth advantage is the already high level of immune escape demonstrated by XBB, combined with the effect of the spike change S486P. This mutation has previously been rare during the pandemic, probably due to it requiring two nucleotide substitutions in the same codon to change from phenylalanine to proline. In fact, other variants with this change have emerged before without becoming successful.

[url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/update-sars-cov-2-variants-ecdc-assessment-xbb15-sub-lineage[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/update-sars-cov-2-variants-ecdc-assessment-xbb15-sub-lineage 

DJ, we are hardly testing...so sequencing may be "nothing"....excess deaths high-flu high...But no news on "flu-rona" coinfections....

Indie_SAGA trying their best; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U1vjdpoeaU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U1vjdpoeaU ; Join us for a discussion on immunology, hybrid immunity & vaccines, with guests Dr Elizabeth Mann, Dr Lance Turtle & Prof Carl Goodyear, hosted by Prof Sheena Cruickshank & Prof Danny Altmann, chaired by Dr Helen Salisbury & numbers by Prof Christina Pagel

and

2:50 COVID Data  19:55 Summary of COVID data  21:20 Immunology, Immunity, and Vaccines 48:50 Q&A

DJ, Statistics are depressing...yes "CoViD deaths" went down in 2022 -with five waves...DJ-Excess deaths in UK extreme...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-another-new-worrisome-bf-variant-emerges-in-japan-ie-bf-7-15,-that-joins-other-dangerous-east-asian-variants-bf-7-14,-bf-5-1-and-bf-5-2[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-another-new-worrisome-bf-variant-emerges-in-japan-ie-bf-7-15,-that-joins-other-dangerous-east-asian-variants-bf-7-14,-bf-5-1-and-bf-5-2 

and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-updates-new-variants-will-not-cause-much-severity-in-acute-phase-of-infection-but-increases-mortality-risk-within-30-days-of-infection[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-updates-new-variants-will-not-cause-much-severity-in-acute-phase-of-infection-but-increases-mortality-risk-within-30-days-of-infection DJ, new variants kill after the 4 week "limit" for CoViD based on the earlier variants ? 

Some other statistics-for indication only;

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps (Ourworldindata has much higher numbers...) 

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK symptomatic-self reported cases now under 2,7 million...however very likely to increase soon due to newer variants...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases (as far as there is testing & reporting) -14% (3,1 million last week, 2,7 million this week...), deaths -6% (14,094 last week, 13,237 last 7 days...as far as tested & reported...). 

Asia cases -2%, deaths +27%, Africa cases +5%, deaths -27%, Oceania cases -47%, deaths +30%....

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports now over 1200 "variants of Omicron" ?????

DJ-Western denial of any pandemic is giving all kinds of variants lots of room to spread...China new year [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_New_Year[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_New_Year -this year on january 22-may see more spread of all kinds of variants. Not only from China-or Chinese....

Some claim China may be going for "natural immunity" by/via relative milder variants....








Wow. Even McKinsey is catching on that mild acute COVID leads to productivity losses, and therefore, negatively affects the economy. And of course, long COVID, severe COVID, and fatal COVID also negatively affect the economy (and people's health, QOL, finances, etc).

DJ...maybe slowly some "politicians" start to understand CoViD is damaging profits "the economy"....So to save profits, to secure party funding by rich sponsors, better start dealing with the healthcrisis....

-Now the Ukraine-war soon may end like the Afghanistan-NATO-war did-collapse of a corrupt puppet regime-maybe spend more money on public healthcare ? 

End for today...lots of rain...again...even limited local flooding...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/14/flooding-expected-gelderland-leerdam-well-dutch-floodplains[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/14/flooding-expected-gelderland-leerdam-well-dutch-floodplains 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2023 at 10:38pm

DJ

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/13/cabinets-reliance-buying-medicine-abroad-caused-dutch-firms-bankruptcy-report[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/13/cabinets-reliance-buying-medicine-abroad-caused-dutch-firms-bankruptcy-report NL had a record level of medication problems in 2022..."Politics" claim the west has to become more self-supportive on medical gear-then buy medical gear from Asia because at the end low price matters more...

By now-in my view-CoViD is only a limited part of a major healthcrisis-outcome of insane "politics"....

Maybe compare the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project  in "modern neo liberal ideology"...Private companies would have to build the US first atomic bombs-for profit...Then the US would "lease" the bombs...before dropping them...

Pandemics are very major risks ! Not for profit oppertunities with private companies able to go for maximizing profits !!!! The basic disease is an ideological one...privatize even your mother-insanity ! 

It is a western "neo-con" disease-part of the confrontation bringing us close to nuclear war...What is wrong with some balance between public and private responsibilities ? 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-covid-19-deaths-continue-to-rise-in-japan-503-deaths-in-last-24-hours-and-740,256-japanese-are-currently-hospitalized-due-to-covid-19[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-covid-19-deaths-continue-to-rise-in-japan-503-deaths-in-last-24-hours-and-740,256-japanese-are-currently-hospitalized-due-to-covid-19 ...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-after-lying-for-weeks,-china-now-says-there-were-just-59,936-covid-19-deaths-from-8th-december-to-12th-january-2023-do-you-believe-them[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-after-lying-for-weeks,-china-now-says-there-were-just-59,936-covid-19-deaths-from-8th-december-to-12th-january-2023-do-you-believe-them 

DJ-There is NO international agreement on a definition of "CoViD deaths" (or CoViD-case, Long CoViD)...so China only counts CoViD ARDS/pneumonia-deaths as CoViD deaths...in the west CoViD deaths decreased while excess deaths are record high....








An important study from the UK Biobank that showed that 'mild COVID-19' increased the risk of all-cause death by 10-fold. And COVID that results in hospitalisation increases this 100 fold. No form of COVID is harmless or trivial.

DJ, "politics" made CoViD into a total disaster....It is like creating an army while having a shortage of guns...Some soldiers get real guns, other just toys...and then they have to face the enemy....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-can-we-trust-institutions-lied[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-can-we-trust-institutions-lied , [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credibility_gap[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credibility_gap ; Credibility gap is a term that came into wide use with journalism, political and public discourse in the United States during the 1960s and 1970s. At the time, it was most frequently used to describe public skepticism about the Lyndon B. Johnson administration's statements and policies on the Vietnam War.[1] It was used in journalism as a euphemism for recognized lies told to the public by politicians. Today, it is used more generally to describe almost any "gap" between an actual situation and what politicians and government agencies say about it.[2][3]

DJ, "politicians lie" but in crises "politicians lie even harder".....








📈📉Wastewater shows the peak in the northeast at levels twice as high as the rest of the US, and 2x as high as country avg after Omicron.  But well below Omicron peaks. Hospitalization data agrees, worst since Omicron but well below those extreme highs.

DJ, Lock downs did NOT end the pandemic, vaccines did not end the pandemic, propaganda, lies can not end this pandemic....IF politics goes on kicking the can down the road-like they do with climate collapse, fiat currencies etc. the "death end street" scenario is the ONLY outcome...

Coffee !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2023 at 12:01am

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/sato-lab-virological-characteristics-of-xbb-1-5/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/sato-lab-virological-characteristics-of-xbb-1-5/

Japan’s Sato Lab have announced new research into the Omicron XBB.1.5 ‘Kraken’ variant, confirming much about what is already known or suspected about its transmissibility.

“Our results suggest: XBB.1.5 = XBB.1 + F486P = profound immune resistance + augmented ACE2 binding affinity → increased transmissibility.

DJ-january 16....

The XBB.1.5 variant is spreading-from the US-in most of the west...So far it may be a "mild" virus on the short term...however some warnings the idea of "acute CoViD" lasting less then 4 weeks may be incorrect....[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/a-huge-wave-of-covid-19-deaths-is-rolling-across-the-globe/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/a-huge-wave-of-covid-19-deaths-is-rolling-across-the-globe/ 

Pinned Tweet







#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  It's still an Omicron family feud! XBB.1.5 ⬆️slowly but surely TOP lineages (#15DAYTRENDS): 20.4%  BQ.1.1 17.8%  XBB.1.5 7.5%   BQ.1 2.7%   BQ.1.1.5 2.5%   BQ.1.2 Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 Updated: 01/15/2023 

and [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard 

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN also XBB.1.5 dominant in New York (state), US hospital cases going up...

A lot of people may have been infected during christmas/new year - a lot of them only mild symptoms to start with...Symptoms may have gotten more severe, duration of symptoms also opening the door for other infections....

US is not in as bad a hospital crisis the UK is already in....[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ukrainian-refugees-britain-are-going-home-medical-treatment-rather-endure-nhs-waiting[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ukrainian-refugees-britain-are-going-home-medical-treatment-rather-endure-nhs-waiting (the ZH article blames strikes -not diseases/bad government-for the UK health care crisis..."stupid media" are part of the problem...Experienced UK HCW-ers may find better oppertunities in other countries...[url]https://twitter.com/EmergencyMedDr[/url] or https://twitter.com/EmergencyMedDr  may be a better source...).








Curve of % testing positive for N-antibodies (from exposure by the virus) by age also in graph below. Among 70+ still 30% that were never exposed (maybe underestimated, as Abs wane over time & some never seroconvert).

-

Theo Sanderson

@theosanderson
·
Replying to @joe_wilson97
One only gets +/- for that, but


Image


2

3

18



DJ...so most people  (in the UK) would have had some form of CoViD infection  (scale only goes to 90% !)? [url]https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1614704282279845889/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1614704282279845889/photo/1 from [url]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1128632/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-2-2023.pdf[/url] or https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1128632/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-2-2023.pdf 

Maybe that was an "idea" behind the lack of policy/strategy-going for "herd/group-immunity"...

Politics FAIL !!! in climate change, foreign policy, healthcare, currencies....

End of part 1-maybe more later today...



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2023 at 9:56pm

DJ-january 17,

In the Ukraine-NATO expansion war biden created-"the west" sticks to its own propaganda & lies...In the pandemic the west sticks to its own phantasy "pandemic = over"....

Repeating mistakes over and over is seen as a sign of insanity....

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps excess deaths for Europe-last week of 2022-are high...Germany "very high" 10-15% above what should be expected...And of course numbers fluctuate...only problem is the general trend is above "the norm" excess deaths all of 2022 in all of Europe....

Well done  for having  on this morning. Please clip her message and play it over and over. It's so important to hear that the 'living with' and 'vaccine only' approaches haven't worked. For the forgetten CEV clean air & masks may allow them to rejoin society

link-from 21,52 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-cdGzT2IFs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-cdGzT2IFs 

Does Gurdansani want ever lasting lock downs ? 

No, I didn't - in fact I advocated constantly for putting measures like air quality regulation, provision of high quality. masks alongside testing and supported isolation + vax so that lockdowns would not be required for suppression. Gotta love men who're confidently ignorant...

But -DJ- talking sense to idiots is a waste of time....








🛑 sampling bias warning❗️  English sequenced cases are *highly* skewed to older ages, due to prioritising samples for sequencing from hospital patients and care homes. The median age of English 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 sequenced COVID-19 cases is 76 years old 👴🏻 👵🏻

also








NEW:  Variant Technical Briefing 49 🔘 XBB.1.5 and CH.1.1 designated variants  🔘 BQ.1 severity and VE estimates 

link [url]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1128554/variant-technical-briefing-49-11-january-2023.pdf[/url] or https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1128554/variant-technical-briefing-49-11-january-2023.pdf 

DJ-Since I am NOT an expert I -at best- only give my opinion/view;

What I did get from the [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U1vjdpoeaU&t=5s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U1vjdpoeaU&t=5s indie_SAGE video was a major difference in booster vaccinations even between the UK and NL....

There has been a lot of discussion/claims "vaccines kill" from countries with LOW level of -recent- vaccinations....This does not mean there may not be problems with vaccines (and vaccinations-it has to go into the muscle NOT a blood vessel).....

But the pandemic is MORE then (endless) discussions on vaccine-safety....In the UK [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data could indicate -for now- UK cases may go down...with another wave (partly XBB.1.5) expected later on...

-DJ "Evaluation" of any policy is seen as a sign of weakness....So sticking to not-functioning policies is a political priority...even if it is killing lots of people....in wars, in pandemics, in climate collapse...

From NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/16/hospitals-postpone-operations-flu-wave[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/16/hospitals-postpone-operations-flu-waveSeveral hospitals are currently postponing their operations because they are busy with the number of patients being admitted with respiratory infections such as the flu. In addition, staff absenteeism is also high.

"It is all the flu"....no need for any testing....

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/15/pharmacists-concerned-highest-number-medicine-shortages-ever-last-year[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/15/pharmacists-concerned-highest-number-medicine-shortages-ever-last-year ;

Never before have there been so many medicine shortages in one year as in 2022, said the chairman of the pharmacists' organization KNMP, Aris Prins, on the TV program KASSA on Saturday evening. Last year, a drug was unavailable for at least two weeks nearly 1,514 times.

On average, a shortage lasted 91 days last year, Prins told KASSA. In addition, 10 percent of medicines disappeared from the market altogether. Furthermore, there were 1007 drug shortages in 2021.

-

"Shortages are a global problem and can really only be properly addressed at the international level," a spokesperson for the Ministry of Health said. As an example of such an EU approach, the spokesman cited the production capacity of vaccines for Europe, which is already reserved for a possible next pandemic.

kick-the-can-strategy...."answer has to come from the EU...not from your own government that has the responsibility..."...

Maybe more later....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2023 at 10:16pm

January 18, 

-Maybe a short mention on international affairs; It looks like-for now-Ukraine defense is collapsing. Russia is stopping NATO expansion. 

Can result in two things;

-talks, the wise thing to do...NATO itself is outdated...

-escalation, the most likely scenario-insanity goes on...

Here in NL I voted for an animal-rights party-expecting them to be very critical on NATO...but "no"-just like the "so called" green-party in Germany left wing enviromentalist parties seem to be "one issue"-I feel betrayed...In Ukraine zelenski won the elections promising peace-but he brought escalation...

Democracy is being destroyed by "politicians" -the push for nuclear war has become the major risk...

-Pandemics;

Here in NL new cases, CoViD-hospital cases are going down...however hospitals overloaded with all kinds of other respitory infections...In the UK [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data self reported symptomatic cases drop "high speed"....

I would LOVE to believe the pandemic is over....but it is NOT !!!!

Some claims on delay between catching the virus and symptoms...as a "strategy" it would allow the virus to spread more...In the US,Asia hospital cases increase...








We also observed that spike-mediated membrane fusion (leading to viral entry) is more efficient with BQ.1.1, XBB.1(.5) and BA.2.75.2 than previous Omicron variants, almost reaching Wu levels 

also discussed [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-ohio-state-university-study-discovers-that-xbb-1-5,-ch-1-1-and-ca-3-1-variants-have-increased-fusogenicity-that-ba-2[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-ohio-state-university-study-discovers-that-xbb-1-5,-ch-1-1-and-ca-3-1-variants-have-increased-fusogenicity-that-ba-2 "fuso-genicity" in simple words means spreading from one cell to the next...so more fuso-(fusion) genicity (genesis=creation) means more spread of the virus in a host...

Study also did find immunity (vaccine/earlier infection) to be "not (very) effective"...DJ fits in a pattern of mutation selection to evade immunity...

link; [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.16.524244v1[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.16.524244v1 ;

Abstract

Newly emerging Omicron subvariants continue to emerge around the world, presenting potential challenges to current vaccination strategies. 

This study investigates the extent of neutralizing antibody escape by new subvariants XBB.1.5, CH.1.1, and CA.3.1, as well as their impacts on spike protein biology. 

Our results demonstrated a nearly complete escape of these variants from neutralizing antibodies stimulated by three doses of mRNA vaccine, but neutralization was rescued by a bivalent booster. 

However, CH.1.1 and CA.3.1 variants were highly resistant to both monovalent and bivalent mRNA vaccinations. 

We also assessed neutralization by sera from individuals infected during the BA.4/5 wave of infection and observed similar trends of immune escape.

 In these cohorts, XBB.1.5 did not exhibit enhanced neutralization resistance over the recently dominant BQ.1.1 variant. 

Notably, the spike proteins of XBB.1.5, CH.1.1, and CA.3.1 all exhibited increased fusogenicity compared to BA.2, correlating with enhanced S processing.


 Overall, our results support the administration of new bivalent mRNA vaccines, especially in fighting against newly emerged Omicron subvariants, as well as the need for continued surveillance of Omicron subvariants.

DJ...The last sentence-calling for more vaccines- is a "tunnel vision". In the US, UK level at present of vaccinated is limited...There is increasing discussion/questions on vaccines/vaccine strategy...Is it wise to go for mRNA-vaccines each year ? Do you not just increase immunity evasion ? 

No one doubts there are risks in getting vaccinated-discussion is on the level of risk. Does getting the vaccine -in the longer term- balance risks of vaccines and infections...or could we maybe end up with vaccines doing more harm then good (for profit...insane ! ).

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-with-lots-of-new-worrisome-sars-cov-2-variants-emerging,-who-issues-new-guidelines-including-10-day-isolation-for-the-infected[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-with-lots-of-new-worrisome-sars-cov-2-variants-emerging,-who-issues-new-guidelines-including-10-day-isolation-for-the-infected 

and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-stupids-saying-that-china-variants-have-been-circulating-before-bf-7-14,-ba-5-2-48,-ba-5-2-49-are-new,-past-exposure-to-ba-5-will-not-he[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-stupids-saying-that-china-variants-have-been-circulating-before-bf-7-14,-ba-5-2-48,-ba-5-2-49-are-new,-past-exposure-to-ba-5-will-not-he lp...

DJ-All over the world new variants show up-simply ignoring (most) immunity....some regions may get a false sense of security-because for now it looks like cases are going down....only to go up in the next wave...

-H5N1 has now been confirmed [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/h5n1-tracking-ab/ecuador-aa/966807-ecuador-moh-confirms-human-infection-with-hpai-h5-january-10-2023?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/h5n1-tracking-ab/ecuador-aa/966807-ecuador-moh-confirms-human-infection-with-hpai-h5-january-10-2023?view=stream in the 9 y/o girl from Ecuador. 

DJ-We had a "culling" of over 60,000 chicken yesterday not far from where I live..."Bird-flu" may get "mixed" with CoViD decrease of immunity...

On CoViD-statistics [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table has increase of deaths in some regions....

DJ, delay over christmas, new year can result -still-in even worse statistics...Another wave is on its way...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/ 

End of this part...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 19 2023 at 12:03am

DJ, 

In a crisis there is supposed to be a "crisisteam" with knowledge and training able to deal with such a crisis....

Western "stategy" was and is create extra monoy-give it to a private company (shareholders=privacy....any suggestion it might be politicians is unwelcome) and claim problem is solved...

So ..."the pandemic is over".....end of story here....It is all the flu...never mind long CoViD-just a group of lazy people...never mind the excess deaths-most "the old and vulnerable"....

"Our policy is a great success"! Love your leader !

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QRBITdPR7w[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QRBITdPR7w (Alexander Mercouris/AM Russia Advances Siversk, Ukraine Risks Main Force in Bakhmut; US, UK, German Militaries Push Back Against Tank Transfers Topic 734) another very long video...maybe an interesting part at 1,05. 

DJ; Fighting a pandemic with non sterilizing vaccines while not stopping the spread is making the pandemic worse....

AM in his video makes the point that sending western tanks etc. to Ukraine-while does tanks ran into major problems in an organized army...even in peacetime- "may not be helping Ukraine"...

So much effort went into provoking Russia to stop NATO moving east that it looks like "politics" based the rest of their "stategy" on wishfull thinking and phantasy...

Has politics become some sort of popularity contest ? The most friendly smile gets a lot of votes...certainly combined with all kinds of unrealistic promisses...Do these "politicians/clowns" not understand the seriousness of their job in a democracy ? [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzjqGDPmDlw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzjqGDPmDlw Scott Ritter on "US nuclear thinking"-the US claims to have a right to first use of nuclear weapons...Russia already made it very clear any NATO nuclear weapon used against Russia means all out nuclear war...

At present-with western "leaders" not able to admit any mistake DJ my conclusion is "the west" is moving towards nuclear war...not only against Russia...When you look at "succesfull US wars" maybe some small island may face US nuclear attack...

Translating this insanity to the pandemic; More (non-sterilizing still) vaccines....deny any complications, deny they soon may not have any immunity use...new variants simply evade what vaccines may bring...Of course vaccine-profits-ending up in "shareholders"...Of course also "companies are free to sponsor political ideas"....

A total mess....

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK cases keep dropping high speed...DJ-I would love to believe this means "the pandemic is over" however lots of other variants did start spreading...In fact-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Africa cases +30%, deaths +13% could point to (new/other) variants spreading in Africa...








This is my 6th year at  and every winter England’s NHS has been in crisis. So when I started looking at the latest stats I was expecting to do a story about history repeating itself. But it’s not repeating. 2022 was *so* much worse. I can prove it in one graph.🧵

DJ "Living with the virus" may mean dying from the virus...(politicians going for the best ventilation, care can not escape their lies...). 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 19 2023 at 10:49pm

DJ, The main risk for public health is politics unable to realize risks...

US/NATO is pushing for all out nuclear war-totally ignoring the will and needs of other countries. IF that insanity does not end we may see nuclear war within months...

"CoViD is over"-so no need to test any longer-as a "strategy" -in fact denying of (yet another) problem will worsen the healthcrisis...

I do wonder how many cases of "flu-rona" co-infections of the flu and corona there will be...I would love to believe catching one virus would offer protection, increase immunity-against catching the other virus..So if you have the flu you would not catch CoViD...

But wishfull thinking can NEVER be a basis for health strategies.....

H5N1 in humans-Ecuador 9 y/o story [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/who-oms/967178-human-infection-caused-by-avian-influenza-a-h5-ecuador-18-january-2023[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/who-oms/967178-human-infection-caused-by-avian-influenza-a-h5-ecuador-18-january-2023 ; According to the information received thus far, the virus has not been detected in other individuals beyond this single case. While further characterization of the virus from this case is pending, currently available epidemiological and virological evidence suggests that influenza A(H5) viruses have not acquired the ability for sustained transmission among humans, thus the likelihood of human-to-human spread is low. Based on available information, WHO assesses the risk to the general population posed by this virus to be low. The risk assessment will be reviewed as needed should further epidemiological or virological information become available.

global risk assessment associated with recent influenza A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b viruses was published on 21 December 2022. However, the subtype and clade information for this human case is not yet known. ...

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...em/2023-DON434

DJ, with that many cases of all kinds of respitory infectious diseases-and very limited testing-in such a lot of places -my opinion- this human H5N1 cases at present is very likely not the only one....

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/01/eurosurveillance-hpai-ah5n1-virus.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/01/eurosurveillance-hpai-ah5n1-virus.html further discussed at [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/967212-eurosurveillance-hpai-a-h5n1-virus-infection-in-farmed-minks-spain-october-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/967212-eurosurveillance-hpai-a-h5n1-virus-infection-in-farmed-minks-spain-october-2022 ......so H5N1 in minks...

Today the journal Eurosurveillance provides a detailed report on the outbreak in mink, including the detection of rare mutation (T271A), which `enhances the polymerase activity of influenza A viruses in mammalian host cells and mice'.

-

Discussion

We present, to the best of our knowledge, the first report of clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI H5N1 virus infection of minks farmed for their fur in Europe. The viruses identified presented the highest similarity with strains of the A/gull/France/22P015977/2022-like genotype, which has already been described in multiple wild bird species and sporadically in poultry across northern Europe [6]. However, the viruses detected at the mink farm are distinguished from all the clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 viruses characterised thus far in the avian population in Europe as they bear an uncommon mutation (T271A) in the PB2 genewhich may have public health implications.

Indeed, the same mutation is present in the avian-like PB2 gene of the 2009 pandemic swine-origin influenza A(H1N1) virus (H1N1pdm). Zhang et al. [
9] demonstrated that mutations to the avian virus-conserved residue (threonine, T) reduced polymerase activity and abolished the H1N1pdm virus respiratory droplet transmission in guinea pigs.

Furthermore, this study shows that amino acid 271A of PB2 plays a key role in virus acquisition of the mutation at position 226 of HA that confers human receptor recognition. As T271A is an uncommon amino acid change not previously identified among European HPAI H5 viruses in 2020–22, with the exception of a single H5N1 virus from a mammalian host (European polecat), this mutation could have arisen de novo in minks. However, the data available are not sufficient to exclude the possibility of an unobserved circulation of avian viruses bearing this substitution in the avian population.

Our findings also indicate that an onward transmission of the virus to other minks may have taken place in the affected farm. This is suggested by the increasing number of infected animals identified after the confirmation of the disease and the progression of the infection from the initially affected area to the entire holding. Additional experimental studies are ongoing to further explore virulence and transmissibility of these viruses.

DJ...so very likely H5N1 spreading from mink to mink (minks kept for furs....please-stop the insanity...)

In NL 5% of workers have long term healthissues-something like that...can not find an English link..."Long CoViD" ...strange I can not even find the Dutch link to that (no doubt unwelcome) story...

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_
·
SARS-CoV-2 variant update for Western Australia: XBF "Bythos" (26%) and XBC.1.1 (16%) have emerged from an intensely chaotic swarm. XBC was a "Deltacron" recombinant; I believe this is highest frequency reached by any "Deltacron" anywhere, ever. https://aus.social/@mike_honey_/109714689567009353

with in North America and western Europe XBB.1.5 on the rise...Some claims that the time between infection and first symptoms may increase...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data self-symptom-reported UK cases getting under 2 million for the first time since end of september...however lots of new variants likely spreading...another wave within a month. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table with low numbers, very limited testing-what is happening in Africa ???? Cases +115%, deaths +28%...are we-again-missing some new African variants ? 

DJ-I would love to claim "we can survive 2023" [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-huge-temperature-rise-threatens-to-unfold-soon.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-huge-temperature-rise-threatens-to-unfold-soon.html but;

-"let the virus do its thing" destroyed public health...H5N1 is yet another problem...

-We did already see lots of crazy weather in many places this young year...

-Fiat-currencies are "not a house on melting ice-but a mega-city on melting ice"

-Nuclear bluf poker is leading us towards nuclear war...Seeking nuclear war as a way out is a wrong choice !

The only way out is wise leaders, good choices, international cooperation...At the moment western arrogance and stupidity is standing in the way of any solutions to growing problems....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2023 at 11:41pm

January 21, 

Yesterday another update from indie_SAGE [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdH6y34nsKg&t=1s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdH6y34nsKg&t=1sLIVE: Join us for a discussion on #Covid transmission, clean air & ventilation, with guests Dr Kenny Wood & Dr Adam Squires hosted by Prof Trish Greenhalgh chaired by Dr Helen Salisbury & numbers by Dr Kit Yates

and 

Will Newcomb
Chapters 00:22 Intro: Dr Helen Salisbury 01:27 Stats: Dr Kit Yates 16:00 Is SARS-CoV2 really airborne?: Prof Trish Greenhalgh 21:58 Why is indoor space more risky? Dr Adam Squires (Aerosol scientist, Univ. of Bath)  24:09 What options available to make indoor air safer? 25:26 Air filters & CO2 monitors?  32:18 HEPA filters:  34:34 DIY HEPA filter 35:53 UVC C sterilization: Dr Kenneth Wood (School of Physics & Astronomy, St Andrews) 47:14 Questions from the public             Can HEPA filters clear out the smallest particles/viruses 50:02 How effective are personal portable mini HEPA filters? 53:37 How to engage with hospital managers to improve ventilation and respirator use? 01:01:14 Parliament has additional air filtration: How can we get other institutions to be included? 01:05:19 Conclusion and close

DJ, Good info on ventilation, the use of filters and UV-C . It did limit measles, TB in the past, new UV-C is very likely not harming skin/eyes may have use in further limiting virus/bacterial diseases. Also -short term- statistics for UK look "good" [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data new and self reported symptomatic cases in the UK keep going down....Hospital pressure decreasing-also flu seems to have peaked...

The UK parliament did improve ventilation in 2018-so pre pandemic. But still to many UK schools end up with CO2-above 1500 ppm-UK norm...most of Europe has 800 ppm. Outdoors is already 400 parts per million...so UK safety levels are "not very ambitious"...and even there schools have problems...

Over 40% of school staff believed CoViD is no longer a problem...also keeping the energy costs down was a major (40%+) concern...

-

Lady Chuan

@LadyChuan
·
I’m prevented from posting clinical data in an unapproved non-workplace environment, but when I say BUCKLE UP….BUCKLE UP!!

and

Q: Are you referring to preparing for what’s coming re: Kraken/variants?  Are things looking bad/worse? A: Yes and yes.

DJ...from H5N1 to lots of new variants of CoViD....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory M-Pox cases may go onreported - so "no problem"...untill it further developed into a worse problem...








Japan to downgrade COVID-19 from a level 2 to level 5 pathogen (the same level as seasonal influenza) as of spring to unleash restrictions on escalating death rates https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Japan-to-downgrade-COVID-19-as-seasonal-flu-in-spring


Image

90

476

1,203


DJ...So Japan (excess) deaths go to the sky "but risks are flu-like".......








SARS-CoV-2 variants and COVID-19 statistics update for Sweden: XBF "Bythos" (10%) is growing and on track to take over from BQ.* lineages in late Jan. Wave of deaths is already the highest in the Omicron era - unique.

In the US ;








U.S. COVID update: Daily deaths at highest level since April 2022 - New cases: 113,827 - Average: 50,176 (-5,354) - States reporting: 26/50 - In hospital: 37,968 (+2,043) - In ICU: 5,029 (+273) - New deaths: 1,605 - Average: 605 (+60)

DJ...so "is the pandemic over" what do you think.....end of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2023 at 11:13pm

January 22, 

Lots of news...[url]https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2023-01-21_11-45-52.jpg?itok=e7LCJcP7[/url] or https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2023-01-21_11-45-52.jpg?itok=e7LCJcP7 describing level of polarization; US extremely polarized...It makes normal exchange of views hard if not impossible...NL and Germany "at risk"...DJ certainly in Germany increase of extra-parliamentary actions...people do NOT feel represented by "politics" ...in the past (a.o. during the Vietnam-war in wich West Germany played a major role for the US, US-POW sometimes ended up in East Germany-it resulted in terrorism.)

CoViD in the UK -and parts of western Europe going down [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data high speed - although the "speed of decrease"seems to be slowing down...still 1,869,000+ symptomatic UK cases....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-as-expected,-xbb-1-5-surge-quickly-fizzling-out-in-uk,-us-and-elsewhere-biggest-threats-are-the-new-east-asian-variants[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-as-expected,-xbb-1-5-surge-quickly-fizzling-out-in-uk,-us-and-elsewhere-biggest-threats-are-the-new-east-asian-variants XBB.1.5 may be better in evading immunity, binding to (ACE-2) receptors...XBB.1.5 does NOT seem to bring more severe disease...

DJ-However if a variant manages to spread a lot without much symptoms it may result in lots of mutations (recombination is a major mutation in many ways...). So-YES-for now "the pandemic seems to be limited"-on the longer run my view is that it is unrealistic to think CoViD-the pandemic-is over....








We have had more COVID deaths in the first 20 days of 2023 than we had in the whole of 2020. Our death toll in 2023 is 1,063 deaths in just 20 days. A person dies of COVID every 27 minutes. Our current COVID containment strategy is not working

DJ, Australia had 909 CoViD-deaths in 2020...so this year-2023-Australia already more deaths then in 2020 ! In 2021 Australia had 1,316 CoViD deaths...so they cross that line this month...

Federico Gueli

@siamosolocani
·
Minutes after this tweet a big upload of samples from Shandong changed things! we have a new lineage circualting in China, i have already proposed it at teh beginning of January, now i've updated the original issue: https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/1542 It is ,again , a BA.5.2 sublineage!

So...YES there are new variants coming from China...however lots of indications/statistics point to other high risk area's around the globe...Again !!! It is NOT only China !

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/israeli-head-of-biological-research-i-was-wrong-three-times-when-i-was-vaccinated/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/israeli-head-of-biological-research-i-was-wrong-three-times-when-i-was-vaccinated/ DJ-More on that in "Vaccines"...

There is also discussion on (Long) CoViD and immunity. UK, NL flu cases going down..."so" does that mean the general immunity against disease did not decrease ? 

From M-pox to H5N1 (etc) spread what factor does -possible- decrease of immunity play for global population ? Did M-pox, H5N1 change-that as a main reason for more spread ? For that matter an increase of hearth, bloodvessel-problems (a.o. in the brain) is that CoViD-related ? Is that vaccine related ? 

DJ-Good statistics could see if most of the increase is in vaccinated, recent vaccinated, or unvaccinated groups...If a lot of hearth issues would show up in unvaccinated groups it makes no point to blame vaccines....

-Since we are now closer to nuclear war then ever before I will also write my view there...

Maybe more-here-later on...limited time/lots of info...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2023 at 1:47am

january 23....

DJ-I would love [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data numbers getting close to "0"...but the decrease of UK-cases is slowing down....








XBB.1.5 is on the rise.  It's in about 2/3 of sewersheds. It's not dominant in many, but it's share is slowly growing.   However, it isn't doing anything.  The few sewersheds where XBB.1.5 was dominant last week saw a decrease in total numbers this week.   It's a dud (so far).

and

There's that rising baseline again..

DJ...the problem may not be in XBB.1.5...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-east-asian-variants-bf-7-14,-bf-7-15,-bf-5-2,-ba-5-2-48,-ba-5-2-49--ba-5-2-50-continue-to-wreak-havoc-in-china-and-japan-deaths-rising[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-east-asian-variants-bf-7-14,-bf-7-15,-bf-5-2,-ba-5-2-48,-ba-5-2-49--ba-5-2-50-continue-to-wreak-havoc-in-china-and-japan-deaths-rising DJ...In my view the basic problem may be in a total lack of testing and -so- sequencing...We get info from "far away" because they test/sequence more. Denialism is the western "strategy"....








Weekly U.S. COVID update: - New cases: 331,943 - Average: 413,495 (-41,196) - States reporting: 50/50 - In hospital: 35,332 (-4,981) - In ICU: 4,716 (-490) - New deaths: 4,397 - Average: 3,453 (+394)

DJ..weekly US numbers-less then 70,000 US daily cases...








Why is nothing being done to stop a pandemic? Because the mechanism for doing that, public health, was only forced upon societies by previous destructive epidemics. It wasn’t a creation of rational thought, it was panic. The ‘great stench’ in the UK, for example. But… /1

-

you have to add ‘the economy’ to the mix to really understand. Have a look at this chart. Post-WW2 there were glorious economic decades of rebuilding, where nearly everybody in the West got wealthier. Massive government investment, in ordinary people as well as elites. /2

DJ-a reaction;

Replying to 
It has become clear that the ruling elite’s chronological target location of the “normal” to which we are going back is not 2019 but maybe 1819 or earlier!

may show realism; An anti-democratic elite has no interest in "public goods"....It is the "public" that will need to defend "public goods"....but "media" do not serve the public but the elite...

German Health Minister: Anyone who gets infected with corona more often runs the risk of developing an incurable immune deficiency. Roughly 50 scientific papers showing this now

link [url]https://www.archyde.com/studies-give-cause-for-concern-lauterbach-warns-of-incurable-immune-deficiency-caused-by-corona/[/url] or https://www.archyde.com/studies-give-cause-for-concern-lauterbach-warns-of-incurable-immune-deficiency-caused-by-corona/ ; “This can be a risk factor for the development of chronic diseases, from cardiovascular problems to dementia,” emphasized the minister. “As I said, that’s not certain yet, it’s being intensively researched. I’m following the studies and discussing them with experts. This shows that if someone has a severely aged immune system after two infections, it’s advisable that they avoid further Covid infections,” said Lauterbach.

DJ...yet "lack of strategy" results in lots of people catching CoViD over and over...








New cohort study. COVID-19 is associated with increased health care encounters through 6 months after infection; vaccination was associated with lower risk of long-term COVID-19 symptoms.

but yet other studies indicate vaccines offer LESS protection against new variants....Do still push for more immune evasion. 

The gaslighting of people with long COVID as 'scared, and non-evidence based in their risk assessments' is not just ableist but also a way of normalising policy that is not evidence based. All evidence points to the seriousness of post-COVID sequelae & the need to mitigate.

DJ...more waves of CoViD are on their way...tens of millions of people deal with long CoViD...Denial as a strategy only will result in repression...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2023 at 10:15pm

DJ, 

From a history point of view "genocide-by-pandemic" may need more study and attention. 

The "conquest" of the America's had European diseases doing most of the killing of the "native Americans". Of course European elites clinging to power explains present uprising in Peru-an Indian president sidelined via US coup....More or less a "red line" in American history (most Americans do NOT live in the US....). 

Europeans did find "empty land" when they moved into the America's...the population that had lived there before died from diseases -new for the area, European diseases-sometimes even a few hundred years before the first European arrived...So there is some discussion on the population of the America's in 1491 and before that...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_Empire[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_Empire has everything to do with [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death ; The pandemic was reportedly first introduced to Europe during the siege of the Genoese trading port of Kaffa in Crimea by the Golden Horde army of Jani Beg in 1347. From Crimea, it was most likely carried by fleas living on the black rats that travelled on Genoese ships, spreading through the Mediterranean Basin and reaching North AfricaWestern Asia, and the rest of Europe via ConstantinopleSicily, and the Italian Peninsula.[10] There is evidence that once it came ashore, the Black Death mainly spread person-to-person as pneumonic plague, thus explaining the quick inland spread of the epidemic, which was faster than would be expected if the primary vector was rat fleas causing bubonic plague.[11]

DJ, Control of the land -not of the people on that land- may have been one of the goals....Of course [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland) ; The Great Famine (Irishan Gorta Mór [ənˠ ˈɡɔɾˠt̪ˠə ˈmˠoːɾˠ]), also known within Ireland as the Great Hunger or simply the Famine and outside Ireland as the Irish Potato Famine,[1][2] was a period of starvation and disease in Ireland from 1845 to 1852 that constituted a historical social crisis which subsequently had a major impact on Irish society and history as a whole.[3] With the most severely affected areas in the west and south of Ireland, where the Irish language was dominant, the period was contemporaneously known in Irish as an Drochshaol,[4] literally translated as "the bad life" (and loosely translated as "the hard times"). The worst year of the period was 1847, which became known as "Black '47".[5][6] During the Great Hunger, roughly 1 million people died and more than 1 million fled the country,[7] causing the country's population to fall by 20–25% (in some towns falling as much as 67%) between 1841 and 1871.[8][9][10] Between 1845 and 1855, at least 2.1 million people left Ireland, primarily on packet ships but also on steamboats and barques—one of the greatest exoduses from a single island in history.[11][12]

Also had more to do with "the English" wanted the land...not the Irish....Potato-disease was just one of the problems...

Initial limited but constructive government actions to alleviate famine distress were ended by a new Whig administration in London, which pursued a laissez-faire economic doctrine, and only resumed later. The refusal of London to bar export of food from Ireland during the famine was an immediate and continuing source of controversy, contributing to anti-British sentiment and the campaign for independence. Additionally, the famine indirectly resulted in tens of thousands of households being evicted, exacerbated by a provision forbidding access to workhouse aid while in possession of more than 1/4 acre of land.

DJ...so lets now jump to the UK "living/dying with the virus"....[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-urgent-need-for-countries-to-step-up-genomic-surveillance-we-are-navigating-in-the-dark-about-emerging-sars-cov-2-variants[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-urgent-need-for-countries-to-step-up-genomic-surveillance-we-are-navigating-in-the-dark-about-emerging-sars-cov-2-variants ...

The present "western strategy" is to claim the pandemic is over...Stop testing-so no sequencing...If the CoViD gets another wave "blame China"....[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-east-asian-variants-bf-7-14,-bf-7-15,-bf-5-2,-ba-5-2-48,-ba-5-2-49--ba-5-2-50-continue-to-wreak-havoc-in-china-and-japan-deaths-rising[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-east-asian-variants-bf-7-14,-bf-7-15,-bf-5-2,-ba-5-2-48,-ba-5-2-49--ba-5-2-50-continue-to-wreak-havoc-in-china-and-japan-deaths-rising ...so-YES-some countries still do a lot of testing and sequencing..."the west" then claim "new variants are imported" while that west simply stopped their own testing...

The outcome of "the west living with the virus";








A high plateau isn’t a seasonal epidemic, it’s a state of hyperendemicity which means persistently high levels of: -hospital occupancy -excess mortality -school and work absenteeism -LC syndrome -new onset post covid MIs, strokes, diabetes and other chronic health conditions

also [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-germany-s-health-minister-warns-that-exposure-to-sars-cov-2-will-result-in-an-incurable-immunodeficiency-condition[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-germany-s-health-minister-warns-that-exposure-to-sars-cov-2-will-result-in-an-incurable-immunodeficiency-condition ....

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/us-nearly-19-million-adults-may-have-long-covid/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/us-nearly-19-million-adults-may-have-long-covid/ 

So...catching CoViD over and over again is NOT resulting in group immunity but in destruction of immunity....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_fatigue_syndrome#Signs_and_symptoms[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_fatigue_syndrome#Signs_and_symptoms -certainly the sub-group of CF-IDS Chronic Fatigue-Immunity deficiency syndrome should have been a warning that post-viral problems could become major after a pandemic...

So vaccinate ????? Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaVZNVQ3Xps&t=771s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaVZNVQ3Xps&t=771s ;

The use of antibiotics has promoted antibiotic resistance, which is a major global threat to the treatment of bacterial infections. 

The bacteria which survive are the ones which are resistance to an antibiotic. These are the bacteria which will survive to infect the next person. 

The situation is much the same with vaccines which act against viral infection. Vaccines which do not sterilise the body of a virus will leave some viral particles alive. It is these surviving viruses, which are not killed by vaccine induced antibodies, that survive to reproduce. This is why vaccines can lead to the evolution of new variants of a virus. 

In other words, the virus must evolve to avoid vaccine induced immunity. It is also noted that repeated vaccination can stimulate the T suppressor lymphocytes that actually inhibit the immune response. We discuss the difference between mucosal and systemic immunity. 

Active and passive immunity are discussed, active immunity is generated by antigen exposure. Professor Clancy also clarifies my thinking on point mutations versus recombinant new variants. This difference accounts for viral genetic shift and drift. We note that shifts are associated by significant immune escape. 

-

Fortunately, these genetic changes have so far led to covid viruses which cause less severe disease, while still being very transmissible. This has reduced serious illness and deaths, while promoting widespread natural immunity.

DJ, "natural immunity" is a claim Dr.J.C. and some others love to make-but reinfections are "the norm". At present XBB.1.5 is dominant/major in some parts of the west-not giving that much symptoms...

The idea that "mild variants/disease" mean the pandemic is at its end is simply WRONG !!!! "Mild variants" can spread much more-with increased risks of more mutations, newer variants...

Dr.J.C. may have a point-in my non-expert view- that spread of CoViD in vaccinated (non-sterilizing vaccines-so they do not stop infection, but limit disease) populations will result in much more dangerous variants than CoViD spread in unvaccinated populations...(Africa may be claimed for that...). However catching CoViD over and over again also in unvaccinated populations will see immuno-escape...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data Symptomatic UK cases now are very low...however some variants are "mild" not giving a lot of symptoms (within a short time after infection...). UK symptomatic-cases being reported soon look like increasing again...

End for now...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2023 at 10:47pm

DJ-short (?) part two...

I started with "genocide by pandemic" to get land-without the people living on that land. The America's, Ireland, Central-Asia/Mongols/Black Death as examples...

"living/dying with the virus" nowadays is NOT (much) related to land but to profits, greed, power, money...so still economic. 

The link between the Spanish Flu and World War One/chaos in parts of the globe (Russian civil war, Polish/Ukraine wars etc) should be clear. One of the reasons for not very clear number of Spanish Flu deaths is lack of civil administration...Certainly in the colonies "subjects" hardly did see other administration then for tax/work (economic) reasons...India, Java-Indonesia must have had millions of deaths...In Russia/Eastern Europe war prevented even a basic administration...lots of people may have died not only from the flu but also starvation, violence...

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps week 3 update showing high excess deaths in Germany, NL, Scotland 7-10% above the long term norm. 

Death certificates with CoViD on it may have decreased in 2022...excess deaths remain (very) high...NOT linking that-at least for some part-with CoViD is simply false...(but statistics are "a great way to lie"...). 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/covid-reinfection-causes-an-immune-deficiency-that-can-no-longer-be-cured/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/covid-reinfection-causes-an-immune-deficiency-that-can-no-longer-be-cured/ ; “It is worrying what we are seeing in people who have had multiple corona infections. Studies now show very clearly that those affected are often dealing with an immune deficiency that can no longer be cured. This can be a risk factor for the development of chronic diseases, from cardiovascular problems to dementia.

DJ So CoViD as a "slow killer" (allowed to spread for profits...). A link provided to [url]https://jessicawildfire.substack.com/p/the-gig-is-up-and-it-feels-weird?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=auto_share&r=1age8[/url] or https://jessicawildfire.substack.com/p/the-gig-is-up-and-it-feels-weird?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=auto_share&r=1age8 ;

The world is only just beginning to see the truth, as we trudge through a winter that makes the last two look almost pleasant.

This recent news from Germany slams the last nail in immunity debt’s coffin. It was a short-term fiction, meant to explain away one bad winter. It can’t explain what we’re seeing with children dying from strep throat and global shortages of basic medicine. Our politicians and their corporate media are out of lies. They were having to recycle old ones. They hauled out their Covid minimizers again to try and convince us we’re “overcounting” Covid hospitalizations and deaths.

I don’t think it’s working.


As many of us predicted, the true scope of the damage is becoming self-evident to the millions of people now getting sick constantly. Nobody cares how we’re counting hospitalizations and deaths if Strep throat and other common illnesses now pose an imminent threat to their lives. It doesn’t matter what you’re in the hospital with or for if we’re out of antibiotics and painkillers.


Basically, the gig is up.


Lauterbach has broken the silence on a major catastrophe. This is the first time a major public health official has acknowledged the severe damage Covid does to the immune system, not to mention Long Covid.

-

Of course, someone was eventually going to have to acknowledge it. The constant waves of illness and sudden death were becoming too obvious to ignore. The anti-vaxxers were exploiting it for their own agendas. They were starting to get aggressive again.

-

Over the next several months, we can expect a slow, grudging admission that western leaders have done catastrophic damage to society by allowing and encouraging Covid to spread freely. They don’t have a choice at this point. Although they probably knew they were misleading the public, I don’t think any of them fully understood what an enormous mistake they were making.

Our leaders have a difficult pivot to make this year. Somehow, they’ll have to find a way to admit that an incalculable number of people, including children, now have compromised immune systems. They’re all going to be looking for someone or something to blame.

-

The corporate media will have to find a new narrative.


We’re witnessing something that doesn’t happen very often in history. It’s hard to believe, but it’s true. Our politicians and public health officials have facilitated a mass disabling event.

DJ...and there-in my view-is the risk of nuclear war...Because total mismanagement of this pandemic is only one part of total greed-based politics failure...climate change, fiat currencies, housing crises are just a few others...

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/01/preprint-extraordinary-evasion-of.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/01/preprint-extraordinary-evasion-of.html ;

However, it is clear that CH.1.1 and CA.3.1 have a consistently stronger neutralization resistance than XBB, XBB.1 and XBB.1.5, which is astonishing and warrants continuous monitoring and further  investigations.

Overall, our study highlights the continued waning of 3-dose mRNA booster efficacy against newly emerging Omicron subvariants.

DJ...vaccines only did buy time ? H5N1, fungal infections "win" ?

Running out of time...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, The very US oriented [url]https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/[/url] or https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/ ;

This year, the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moves the hands of the Doomsday Clock forward, largely (though not exclusively) because of the mounting dangers of the war in Ukraine. The Clock now stands at 90 seconds to midnight—the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been.

I think the are wrong in many ways...Miss the point the west is isolated [url]https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/01/03/pers-j03.html[/url] or https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/01/03/pers-j03.html may be much more realistic...

DJ-My view...the US wars to stay "the only superpower/#1" seem to be escalating. We may soon see war in SW Asia. 

I would put my doomsday-clock at 10 seconds to midnight...

More on that in nuclear war/latest news...

The pandemics;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-updates-pcr-and-atk-test-efficacy,-xbf-variant-expected-to-become-predominant-globally,-who-warns-that-global-covid-19-deaths-rising[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-updates-pcr-and-atk-test-efficacy,-xbf-variant-expected-to-become-predominant-globally,-who-warns-that-global-covid-19-deaths-rising ;

-testing LF/at home more failing to detect CoViD infections...also PCR-tests may miss it...

-XBF variant spreading-also in the west-from Australia

-Excess deaths keep increasing (not linking it to CoViD at least for most of it-is self delusion)

-Afghan CoViD situation (with anti-science taliban ruining/ruling that -poor- country) out of control...(DJ-Other regions may not do much better...)

DJ-Some media report North Korea capitol Pyong-Yang closed 5 days because of "respitory problems"....








U.S. COVID update: Daily deaths at highest level since April 2022 - New cases: 25,661 - Average: 48,113 (-1,245) - States reporting: 14/50 - In hospital: 33,892 (-845) - In ICU: 4,504 (-149) - New deaths: 481 - Average: 662 (+5)

DJ, with massive failure in testing and tests finding CoViD infections hospital/deaths statistics become more important. 

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK self-reported SYMPTOMATIC cases still decreasing-but also still above 1,5 million-decrease slowing down. XBB.1.5 often may spread with no or mild symptoms-not getting reported any longer. For that matter ZOE data should be interpreted with caution...people (in the UK) reporting themselves symptoms...








You're exaggerating if you insist post-COVID immunosuppression could only be real if it was so severe it was like myeloablative chemotherapy followed by total body irradiation (bone marrow transplantation preconditioning). Immunosuppression comes in shades of grey

DJ...also by now lots of economic data coming in suggesting in "financial ways" most of the west economies are still growing...but the main factor is prices increased...so less got sold at higher prices...Most of the west in fact is moving into recession-very likely to worsen....








CMI calculates 160,000 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. That total has increased by 8,500 in the first two weeks of 2023. Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 1.2% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019.   2/3

In NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/25/excess-mortality-remained-high-2022-due-covid-19-flu[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/25/excess-mortality-remained-high-2022-due-covid-19-flu ;

Last year, more people died than expected in every age group in the Netherlands. The leading causes were the flu and the coronavirus. The excess mortality was slightly lower than in 2020 and 2021 when Covid-19 caused many thousands of deaths, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported. More people died in 2022 than before the coronavirus pandemic, even compared to 2015 and 2018, when there were severe flu waves.

From end-March 2022, more people died than expected in almost every month of the year. The flu epidemic started in March and lasted for at least 13 weeks. A new flu wave hit the Netherlands in mid-December. In addition, almost 6,500 people died from Covid-19 until October. The coronavirus deaths for October to December are not yet known.

-

At 13 percent, excess mortality was highest among people under the age of 50. More people in that age group died last year than in 2020 and 2021, when the percentage excess mortality percentage was just under 10 percent. Between 50 and 90, excess mortality was lower than in the two coronavirus years. Unlike in 2021, more men than women died last year. In 2020, about the same number of men and women died. Excess mortality was highest in Flevoland, Drenthe, and Hollands-Noorden last year.


A significant proportion of the deaths occurred among people receiving some form of long-term care, such as the residents of nursing homes or care facilities for the disabled. The excess mortality in this population group was 13 percent, about 6 percent higher than among the rest of the population and also higher than in 2021.

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, life expectancy fell by several months. This year, life expectancy increased slightly again. Based on current data, men live an average of 80.1 years and women about 83.1 years. Despite the slight increase compared to last year, life expectancy for men is still four months lower and for women five months lower than in 2019

DJ, also undertakers came with news on lots of funerals/cremations-waiting lists...

**************** DUE TO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS WAR NEWS GET PRIORITIZED ******************************

DJ-There soon could be a US/Israel attack on Iran. Other wars/conflicts Ukraine, Korea are moving towards crises. 

[url]https://defconwarningsystem.com/2023/01/09/5-places-world-war-iii-could-start-in-2023/[/url] or https://defconwarningsystem.com/2023/01/09/5-places-world-war-iii-could-start-in-2023/ still has DefCon-5 = low risk of short term all out war...several other info (New Atlas, Military Summary, Hal Turner a.o.) warn for major escalation. 

We are now closer to nuclear war then ever before in history. 

"Code Red" I use for high risk of international escalation

"Code Black" I use for international escalation started = nuclear war.

I move now to "Code Red" in Latest News-developments are VERY SERIOUS !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 26 2023 at 10:14pm

DJ, 

I still go for CODE RED for the international situation. See latest news. But the pandemics are not over...

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/01/articles/animals/other-animals/avian-influenza-in-mink-should-we-care/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/01/articles/animals/other-animals/avian-influenza-in-mink-should-we-care/ DJ Maybe a few mainpoints;

-It may be easy to mis/misdiagnose H5N1 spread (in other animals, people included)

-Should we still have minkfarms-considering the risks ?

DJ-To answer that last question; Who pays for what ? A mink-farmer tries to make an income. If there is a major disease in the farm animals he will lose that income. If there is no demand for the products the (mink) farm also has to end. I would go for widening the question-should we still keep consuming meat-at present levels ? Or would there be a public will to consume less meat-decreasing risks of animal diseases spreading into humans...

Of course tax-rules -government- can be a major factor. Increase taxation on meat, decrease tax on alternatives...but also offer farmers perspectives...

DJ-Since air quality also is a major factor in public health governments have to do (so) much more to improve airquality...Car-owners should have to pay more for owning that car. Statistics indicate 96% of the time a car is parked....People did not buy a car to park it but for transport...so "Green Wheels" etc go for "car-sharing"...

Here in NL public transport use is still under pre-pandemic level. The use of (e)bikes increased-with that accidents and (limited) fires (caused by the battery). Bike-paths did not increase enough in most places...We now have over 9 million cars in NL...car-traffic often a major problem...also worsening air quality...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/26/extinction-rebellion-activists-arrested-home-plans-block-a12-highway[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/26/extinction-rebellion-activists-arrested-home-plans-block-a12-highway Repression of enviromental protestors is the wrong reaction....(The XR-activists-some of them over 60....-are willing to go to the police. No need for public arrests and acting as if XR is a terrorist group...). 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-excess-deaths-are-increasing-in-europe-and-especially-more-so-in-the-united-kingdom[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-excess-deaths-are-increasing-in-europe-and-especially-more-so-in-the-united-kingdom The UK government keeps claiming there is no pandemic....comes up with laws against trade unions, strikes....

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK symptomatic cases started another increase...In [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table the UK had 0 cases last 7 days......

DJ-Again...this pandemic is political....

More remarkable in worldometers German cases +6%, Russia +17%, Switzerland +20%, Austria, Moldova +24%...Poland +25%...DJ-Link with Ukraine refugees ? Outside Europe Australia has cases +29%, deaths +65% !

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-u-s-medical-news-first-case-of-opportunistic-pneumonia-in-an-american-covid-19-patient-involving-the-rare-fungus-trichosporon-asahii[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-u-s-medical-news-first-case-of-opportunistic-pneumonia-in-an-american-covid-19-patient-involving-the-rare-fungus-trichosporon-asahii fungal coinfection-on top of CoViD- now also detected in the US....

DJ-It would be welcome if there were statistics on fungal coinfections, CoViD-variants and vaccines. The claim still is vaccines would limit (long term and/or severe) disease. If more fungal coinfections are detected (and they will) do vaccinated people get more protection against those co-infections ? Or does vaccines against CoViD not have an effect, maybe-for some reason-worsen the outlook ? (An over-reaction of immunity as a side effect of vaccines ?????). 










"Health leaders urge governments to step up COVID control "public health leaders..expressed concerns about the increase in COVID-19 deaths and overall mortality, supporting calls for a re-set on COVID-19 management policy...

-

"Professor Brendan Crabb, infectious diseases researcher and Director of the Burnet Institute, called for a re-set of Australia’s COVID management, recommending “anti-transmission strategy..in the end, it’s pretty clear the only way to prevent Long COVID is to not get COVID”

link [url]https://www.croakey.org/health-leaders-urge-governments-to-step-up-covid-control/[/url] or https://www.croakey.org/health-leaders-urge-governments-to-step-up-covid-control/ 








A new prospective Covid study from George Washington University indicated 36% of students, faculty and staff developed #LongCovid, with risk factors identified (no controls) https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/29/3/22-1522_article

DJ..Some indications US has over 19 million "Long CoViD" cases...worldwide -if you go for 5% of global population- you end up over 400 million Long CoViD cases. Often "Long CoViD" does mean "chronic CoViD" with "viral persistence"=the virus still in the body-often still doing damage....

DJ-There is lots of "news" on vaccines...One of the problems is vaccines may not offer any protection after 6 months...older people, newer variants [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-china-s-bf-7-14-spawns-new-bf-7-14-1-sublineage--newer-more-immune-evasive-ba-5-sublineages-will-lead-the-next-reinfection-onslaughts[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-china-s-bf-7-14-spawns-new-bf-7-14-1-sublineage--newer-more-immune-evasive-ba-5-sublineages-will-lead-the-next-reinfection-onslaughts may see even less vaccine protection...

End for now...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2023 at 10:27pm

DJ-In latest news-CODE RED-I follow reports of attacks on Iran, Israel crisis. 

Pandemic is NOT over...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data but info is very limited and unclear...UK cases based on self reported symptoms still going down ???

Thai Medical News has lots of info-with often good links;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-beth-israel-deaconess-medical-center-study-shows-that-xbb-1-5-variant-escapes-neutralizing-antibody-responses-after-bivalent-mrna-boosti[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-beth-israel-deaconess-medical-center-study-shows-that-xbb-1-5-variant-escapes-neutralizing-antibody-responses-after-bivalent-mrna-boosti ng...

They also claim global CoVid hospital cases & deaths are increasing last 30 days...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-german-study-alarmingly-finds-that-post-covid-individuals-have-a-42-6-percent-higher-likelihood-of-acquiring-autoimmune-diseases[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-german-study-alarmingly-finds-that-post-covid-individuals-have-a-42-6-percent-higher-likelihood-of-acquiring-autoimmune-diseases 

Also increase in noro-virus cases linked to decrease of immunity after CoViD ? Old "sleeping" viral infections activated after CoViD ? 

Indie_SAGE had another good video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFdRprtX3lc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFdRprtX3lc ; LIVE: Join us for a discussion on excess deaths, with special guest Stuart McDonald. Prof Christina Pagel & Dr Duncan Robertson will be hosting the session, Prof Anthony Costello chairing & Dr Duncan Robertson also on numbers.

-

Chapters  

00:26 Intro: Prof Anthony Costello 

01:29 Stats: Dr Duncan Robertson 

13:10 Excess deaths: Dr Duncan Robertson 

14:19 What do actuaries do? Stuart McDonald MBE (Deputy Chair elect of the Continuous Mortality Investigation, co-chairs the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group) 

15:50 How do actuaries look at deaths/excess deaths? 

21:10 ASMR - Age Standardised Mortality Rate 

25:00 Weekly death counts during pandemic 

38:38 Direct and indirect cause of deaths  

45:22 Changes in life expectancy 

48:35 V long term consequences - learning from Spanish flu 

50:30 Questions from the public  Q1? Sorry I don't know how to summarise this Q! 

52:16 Are Age Standardised SICKNESS rates measured as they relate to other consequences? 

53:20 Are there any nasal vaccine trials being carried out in UK? 

55:22 Effect of reinfections on those who've experienced pulmonary embolism due to first infection? 

58:49 What does the panel think about the Reduction in govt authorised boosters etc? 

01:04:57 Close

DJ Excess deaths has to be looked at with also age/gender etc background info...In a heatwave in a lot of countries older people run more risk...However people working outdoors in the heat may also be vulnerable. In a pandemic those working with infected patients run higher risk...

I think there is a lot of mis-information on excess deaths without CoViD in the deathcertificate...CoViD can do all kinds of damage resulting in people dying from hearth.brain other organ failures..So indirect CoViD deaths. Often people die from a complex of reasons (age often the major factor...). Statistics can result in a wrong picture...

Theo Sanderson

@theosanderson
·
In Australia, molnupiravir was pre-placed in care homes, and recommended for consideration for those aged >70 regardless of symptoms. We identified a cluster of 20 individuals descending from a mutation event with this signature, suggestive of an outbreak in such a setting.

DJ-There are claims Molnupiravir results in increase of immune evasion-mutations...

-
Replying to 
1) As others have pointed out, the access to boosters in Finland is v limited, 2) the health authority is actively disparaging their value and the harm caused by Covid in general, hence even those entitled to one often think it's unnecessary.


DJ-Finland cases there -61%...but maybe worth following...
With 708 sublineages, Omicron is more successful at procreation than Boris Johnson.....






S

Maybe a look at 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2023 at 11:53pm

DJ-january 30,

Trying to get a view on what the CoViD pandemic is doing [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data can provide some info on symptomatic UK cases...still-slowly-decreasing...(I expect to see them increasing again this week). XBB.1.5 may be "good" at infecting a lot of people however most often only with mild or no symptoms...It could explain why the ZOE statistics went down that much-while XBB.1.5 was supposed to be spreading..."limited symptoms" in a "symptoms based statistic"....

-[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/long-covid-fatigue-caused-by-an-arginine-deficiency/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/long-covid-fatigue-caused-by-an-arginine-deficiency/ DJ-Both (long) CoVid (by now the most widespread form of CoViD) and ME-CFS may be deficiency related. 

The guts may not absorp some nutriënts...on top of that there may be still some virus sticking in the body (viral persistence...) ...sometimes -lack of support/income- also stress/mental issues a factor. 

At least 65 million people are thought to have long Covid worldwide.

A link [url]https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3208117/long-covid-casts-long-shadow-over-asia-patients-cry-out-cure[/url] or https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3208117/long-covid-casts-long-shadow-over-asia-patients-cry-out-cure -10% of CoViD cases (definition ? Symptomatic cases ? or "positive tests ?) ends up with "long CoViD"...DJ-often "they" mean CoViD symptoms lasting more then 4 weeks after a positive test...

DJ-We are in year 4 of CoViD-pandemic but still lack any unity on basic definitions on;

- A "CoViD case" test+ and/or symptoms ? 

-Long CoViD ...some even claim "post-CoViD" =post acute phase...but 4 weeks after a positive test ends up with "very high global long CoViD numbers"...

-CoViD deaths...a lot of excess deaths may have had CoViD since 2020...however die of organ damage/clots...so "not CoViD deaths"? 

Could the real number of CoViD-"realted" deaths in this CoViD pandemic be already over 40 million-with the very high number of excess deaths and a lack of other explanations for those high numbers..(not a heat wave -flu may be a limited factor...). 

TMN; [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-new-ba-5-sublineages-continue-to-emerge-globally-as-virus-evolves-rapidly--new-dy-1-variant-emerges-in-china-ba-5-2-48-with-sa570s[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-new-ba-5-sublineages-continue-to-emerge-globally-as-virus-evolves-rapidly--new-dy-1-variant-emerges-in-china-ba-5-2-48-with-sa570s DJ-TMN by now often has lots of daily info-with links...New BA.5 subvariants more a risk ? 

DJ-From indie_SAGE to TMN my impression is vaccines may have done a job in the early stages of this pandemic. But only vaccines is not effective to get out of this pandemic...On the long run vaccines result in variants able to evade vaccine immunity...just like variants (mutation-selection) find ways after CoViD-infection created "natural" immunity...

We are in a "variant soup" with a total lack of testing/sequencing...The UK-like a lot of countries-did see FIVE waves of CoViD in 2022...DJ-all indications are 2023 will see also;

-more waves...(four to six waves ?)

-higher waves due to decrease in vaccinations and vaccine-effects

-variant-soup going "exponential"

-a lot of hosts may have more then one variant of CoViD...testing for "just one variant" may miss other variants

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory , strepto-infections...in 2023 only followed by more (a.o. fungal) infections...

-H5N1 (and other H5/Avian flu-types) risks keep increasing...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-medical-news-university-of-pennsylvania-and-boston-university-study-shows-under-reporting-of-covid-19-deaths-in-various-counties-across-united-sta[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-medical-news-university-of-pennsylvania-and-boston-university-study-shows-under-reporting-of-covid-19-deaths-in-various-counties-across-united-sta tes...Link to [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.16.23284633v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.16.23284633v1 ;

Accurate and timely tracking of COVID-19 deaths is essential to a well-functioning public health surveillance system. The extent to which official COVID-19 death tallies have captured the true toll of the pandemic in the United States is unknown. In the current study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate monthly excess mortality in each county over the first two years of the pandemic and compare these estimates to the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 on death certificates. 

Overall, we estimated that 268,176 excess deaths were not reported as Covid-19 deaths during the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, which represented 23.7% of all excess deaths that occurred. 

Differences between excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths were substantial in both the first and second year of the pandemic. Excess deaths were less likely to be reported as COVID-19 deaths in the Mountain division, in the South, and in nonmetro counties. The number of excess deaths exceeded COVID-19 deaths in all Census divisions except for the New England and Middle Atlantic divisions where there were more COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in large metro areas and medium or small metro areas. 

Increases in excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 followed similar patterns over time to increases in reported COVID-19 deaths and typically preceded or occurred concurrently with increases in reported COVID-19 deaths. Estimates from this study can be used to inform targeting of resources to areas in which the true toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been underestimated.

DJ So US should add an extra several hundred-thousend to the already high [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table over 1,1 million CoViD deaths ? 

Worldwide the "official" number of CoViD deaths is moving towards 6,8 million...with very likely "mega-countries" like India and China going for their own definition of "CoViD death"...








What we establish here is that this signature of molnupiravir-mutagenesis is present in global sequencing databases, and that in some cases viruses with a considerable number of molnupiravir-induced mutations have been transmitted to other individuals.

and








We also identified clusters in the UK. And we identified some branches with more than 100 mutations, which may relate to multiple courses of molnupiravir treatment.

DJ...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molnupiravir[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MolnupiravirMolnupiravir, sold under the brand name Lagevrio, is an antiviral medication that inhibits the replication of certain RNA viruses.[5] It is used to treat COVID-19 in those infected by SARS-CoV-2.[5] It is taken by mouth.[5]

-

The primary data supporting the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) emergency use authorization for molnupiravir are from MOVe-OUT, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial studying molnupiravir for the treatment of non-hospitalized participants with mild to moderate COVID-19 at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19 and/or hospitalization.[8][34] Participants were adults 18 and older with a pre-specified chronic medical condition or at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection for other reasons who had not received a COVID-19 vaccine.[8] The main outcome measured in the trial was the percentage of people who were hospitalized or died due to any cause during 29 days of follow-up.[8] Of the 709 people who received molnupiravir, 6.8% were hospitalized or died within this period compared to 9.7% of the 699 people who received a placebo.[8]

-

At a November 2021 AMDAC meeting, multiple advisors raised the concern that molnupiravir could accelerate the emergence of variants of concern.[49][50] Other scientists raised similar concerns both before and after the meeting.[51][23][52][22]

is in fact worsening the pandemic...

End for now...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2023 at 11:35pm

january 31, 








…generations forgot what created it. Massive public investment and action. But the new elite generation that came to power in the 1970s forgot that, and began a process of erasing all of those 19th and 20th century public health and welfare actions. What we now call…/8

DJ, we may now have politicians that simply forger why we have "public" institutions...There was chaos and misery ...people kept poor often died before 40 y/o...lots of diseases spreading via open sewers...

I was wondering can we survive 2023 ? Well it looks like we-most of us- survived january...On the "war front" sometimes realism shows up...Putting billions of tax payers money in the (private) military industrial complex of course brings in lots of profits for shareholders...some of it ending up in "political parties"...But there are limits to creating money out of thin air...

Regime change in Iran, Russia to back fiat-currency with energy so far is not succesfull...Nuclear war is not good for profits and shareholders...

DJ-Democracy has become democrazy...I find it very hard to vote on the -once- progressive parties I used to vote for...NATO moving east is NOT agression...NATO again supporting nazi/fascists...no problem for "new left wing groups"....Russia-again-fighting nazism, stopping NATO "is the problem"...Please...

Pandemic; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table 

Based on no testing or sequencing number of cases dropped...so "don't test-don't tell" is the new normal..."China is the problem"-propaganda...

It is welcome Japan cases likely dropped from 628,695 last week to 419,033 last 7 days...but it may indicate that if you DO test the pandemic may NOT be over...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK symptomatic cases -again- very likely will increase later this week. Over 1,5 million "active cases" in the UK still...123,265 new symptomatic cases in the UK on january 29...(trend is up). 








Panorama -  between 5,000 and 10,000 NHS workers could be off sick with long Covid

link [url]https://www.bbc.com/news/health-64405899[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/health-64405899 (DJ-Warning bbc=state run media)

A new twist to the very rare "long measles"—ie subacute sclerosing panencephalitis: It's due to persistent measles infection. Onset is 8-15 years after acute infection. Cause now found to be evolution of the virus >within< the body. https://neurosciencenews.com/measles-encephalitis-22391/

Viral persistence; [url]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK8538/[/url] or https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK8538/

Definition

Persistent infections are characterized as those in which the virus is not cleared but remains in specific cells of infected individuals. Persistent infections may involve stages of both silent and productive infection without rapidly killing or even producing excessive damage of the host cells. There are three types of overlapping persistent virus-host interaction that may be defined as latent, chronic and slow infection.

DJ...very likely at least some cases of ME-CFS and "long CoViD" may be chronic infections with the virus hard to detect...

World Health Organization (WHO)

@WHO
·
The Emergency Committee advised the DG that the #COVID19 pandemic remains a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. @DrTedros accepted the advice of the Committee. See their statement: 📌 http://bit.ly/3JtgqhJ

Lots of countries go for "living with this high risk public health rmergency"....

Priscilla Falzirolli

@PriscillaFalzi1
·
DS.1, an Irish descendant of BN, looks like a potential competitor to XBB in the upcoming months since it has similar or better immune escape and binding than XBB.1.5. You heard it here first before anyone gives it a silly name like Diabolus or something.

So-yes-new variants keep showing up....

DJ-We did have a "pause" in lots of countries. Often reopening schools/workplaces is increase of spread/symptoms...Maybe XBB.1.5 is/was "mild"-less symptoms ? The "pause" was very welcome but gives a false perspective...

End of part 1-maybe more later to "end january"...(statistical view on this month...maybe to early for it ?)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2023 at 11:41pm

A short review of january 2023,

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#total-cases[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#total-cases 

665,563,412 cases per december 31-22 went to 675,197,425 cases january 31 so increase of close to 10 million cases in january...Since both testing and sequencing stopped as good as...the only conclusion can be the pandemic is NOT over...

6,704,032 CoViD deaths-dec.31 went to 6,762,416 deaths...so close to 60,000 CoViD deaths were reported worldwide in janurary 2023....(in general far above flu-deaths per month even in a bad flu-season !) 

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data provides other statistics-based on self reporting of symptoms. 

December 31 had 3,355,066 expected cases...january 30 had 1,592,064...so UK symptomatic cases dropped almost 2 million...january 29 had 1,584,323 active cases...the day before that even lower numbers..so UK may enter its first wave of 2023 ? 

I gave up on following new variants...a very high number of variants around. XBB.1.5 may be widespread-may also not give much (direct) symptoms...so it most likely will be missed in lots of places...

East Asia (Japan) had very high numbers...Australia had more CoViD deaths this january then they had in 2020, or 2021 all year....

Eventough most "politics/media" claim the pandemic is over-we have to live with it and other non-sense there is a growing awareness excess deaths are simply much to high....Most people may die "after acute CoViD"....DJ-my view CoViD does that much damage people die indirect from CoViD...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory is not over.....38 countries had an update in January....

Uganda did get ebola under control...H5N1 is a growing problem...with H5N1 reported to be detected (in october 2022) in Spanish minks...

End for january...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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