XBB.1.16

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/04/preprint-virological-characteristics-of.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/04/preprint-virological-characteristics-of.html ;

For the 3rd month running XBB.1.5 remains firmly in control across the United States (see chart above), but in India and a few other countries, a new up-and-coming XBB.1.16 variant is said to be spreading rapidly.  

Since Omicron variants have a history of remaining dominant for only 3 or 4 months, it is likely that XBB.1.5 will eventually be replaced, and right now XBB.1.16 appears to be leading candidate.

A few days ago Sato Lab in Japan released their own (preprint) analysis of XBB.1.16, which finds that this new variant to be even more transmissible, and immune evading, than its predecessors.  So far, however, there is no indication that XBB.1.16 produces any more severe illness than previous Omicron variants. 

I've only reproduced the link, abstract, and brief excerpt from the preprint. Follow the link to read it in its entirety. I'll have a brief postscript after the break.

Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XBB.1.16 variant

Daichi Yamasoba, Keiya Uriu, Arnon Plianchaisuk, Yusuke Kosugi, Lin Pan, Jiri Zahradnik, The Genotype to Phenotype Japan (G2P-Japan) Consortium, Jumpei Ito, Kei Sato

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.04.06.535883

DJ, some reports from India/Asia however already hit at XBB.1.16 may see more hospital cases and deaths...

[url]https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/health-fitness/health-news/covid-xbb-1-16-has-a-new-symptom-everyones-talking-about-know-what-it-is/photostory/99458493.cms[/url] or https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/health-fitness/health-news/covid-xbb-1-16-has-a-new-symptom-everyones-talking-about-know-what-it-is/photostory/99458493.cms ;

The XBB 1.16 variant of COVID is nicknamed as Arcturus

Several reports have been talking about a new symptom of the COVID infection which is being seen these days and since XBB 1.16 is the dominant strain currently the symptom is being linked to it.A tweet by Pediatrician Vipin M. Vashishtha is being referred to by many publications."For the last 2 days, have started getting pediatric Covid cases once again after a gap of 6 mo! An infantile phenotype seems emerging—treated infants w/ high fever, cold & cough, & non-purulent, itchy conjunctivitis w/ sticky eyes, not seen in earlier waves," the expert has tweeted with a representative image of a child with what looks like itchy conjunctivitis or sticky eyes.

While Dr Vashishtha's tweet on the sign of COVID seen in kids is to worry about, experts have said that conjunctivitis as a COVID sign was seen earlier too though it was not common.As per a report by the Nebraska Medicine Truhlsen Eye Institute when the eyes are exposed to the coronavirus they can develop symptoms of conjunctivitis which are watery eyes, redness, swelling, irritation, itching and discharge.

DJ, there are links between CoViD and -serious- eye/sight problems...Not only the eye may be a way in for the virus, also CoViD can damage the nerves and blood vessels in/around the eye...

[url]https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2023/apr/12/sixteen-more-die-as-covid-cases-in-india-see-38-per-cent-jump-likely-to-peak-in-10-12-days-2565284.html[/url] or https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2023/apr/12/sixteen-more-die-as-covid-cases-in-india-see-38-per-cent-jump-likely-to-peak-in-10-12-days-2565284.html ;

NEW DELHI: India has witnessed a 38 percent jump in new Covid-19 cases, with 7,830 new infections being reported in the last 24 hours, the highest since September 2 last year.

As many as 16 deaths were reported in the country in the last 24 hours. There were two deaths each from Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab. One death each was recorded from Gujarat, Haryana, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. Five reconciled deaths were reported by Kerala, which is seeing the highest number of Covid deaths and cases in the country.

On April 11, 5,676 new positive cases were reported in the last 24 hours, while the country reported 21 deaths.

DJ [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table has cases for India +40%, deaths for India +21% ...however-worldwide-testing/sequencing is at a very low level...

DJ..so XBB.1.16 is not only a problem in India (worldometers has Australia cases/deaths -86%...of course if you do not test you do not find cases...). 

Another concern should be newer variants will spread more outside humans...increasing the risks for even more new variants/mutations...

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports XBB.1.16 not yet included ? Try again...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?xmin=2022-10-14&xmax=2023-04-14&pango=XBB.1.16[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?xmin=2022-10-14&xmax=2023-04-14&pango=XBB.1.16 only 1,377 sequences so far...most of them-around 50%- from India...

link [url]https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/pandemic-warning-uk-covid-scientist-b2320912.html[/url] or https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/pandemic-warning-uk-covid-scientist-b2320912.html ;

The UK is not ready for the next global pandemic because public services are being dismantled and key research is being defunded, experts have claimed.

More than three years after the global outbreak of coronavirus, top scientists have warned that the UK is no better prepared for a pandemic than it was in 2020.

They say another epidemic on the scale of Covid-19 is inevitable, but that disinvestment in infection-monitoring services, dismantling of key infrastructure, and the state of the NHS mean the country is “losing ground”.

The warning comes as virologists told The Independent that the new Covid-19 variant behind a surge of 10,000 new Covid cases a day in India may turn more aggressive, and could become the dominant strain in the UK.

The variant, first identified in January and known as Arcturus, has been found in 22 countries, including the UK and the US, and has prompted India to resume its production of vaccines.

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Sir John Bell, a leading immunologist and a member of the UK’s Covid vaccine taskforce during the pandemic, said it was too easy to dismiss Covid-19 as a “once in a generation crisis”.

Writing in The Independent, he warned that it is “a question of when, not if, another pandemic strikes”, adding that the nation needs to adopt an “always on” approach that includes building a more resilient healthcare system, carrying out better surveillance, and identifying future threats.

“Despite everything we have learned, we are not ready for the next pandemic,” he wrote. “The next pandemic could be even more devastating than the last. We must be in a constant state of readiness for the next big health crisis – if we do not act now, we will not be forgiven.”

He referred to modelling that suggests there is a 38 per cent chance that another pandemic will happen within our lifetime, which would have “the potential to cause even greater destruction”.

DJ...of course "Arcturus" or XBB.1.16 is just one of many new CoViD variants...all still named "Omicron"...CoViD-19/SARS-2 may be moving towards SARS-3/CoViD-23 but it is still the pandemic that started to spread in 2019...(very likely first detected in China...but that finding does NOT mean it started in China ! That way of thinking may result in countries NOT reporting diseases because they may be blamed for spreading diseases...). 

One of the problems is lack of testing and (thus) sequencing..."political fools going for denial of the problems"....

In Asia cases [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table now increase of +8% mostly due to XBB.1.16 (and the many variants/mutations in it-resulting in even more immune evasion...) 

I expect [url]https://twitter.com/IndependentSage[/url] or https://twitter.com/IndependentSage will do another good job a.o. discussing XBB.1.16 on the rise...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UyleE30ruY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UyleE30ruY ;

The Omicron variant XBB.1.16, also known as Arcturus, continues to spread globally and now has been identified in almost 30 countries, including the USA. We discuss its spread through India, USA, and globally including it now being included in the CDC variant tracker with 7% of cases being caused by XBB.1.16. A new study has been published in pre-print exploring the severity, immune escape, and pathogenicity of XBB.1.16. In addition to that, the news has started to label a possible new symptom associated with XBB.1.16 called conjunctivitis. We dive into this, talk about if it is in fact associated, and what it may mean/how to monitor for it. **Join our WhiteBoard Doctor Newsletter sent out on the 1st/15th of each month starting May 1st!!!*** Sign up at the link below: https://whiteboarddoctor.m-pages.com/...

DJ, maybe some realism on the risks...not claiming "mild" or "low risk" for a change...(from minute 4)

[url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.22.23288965v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.22.23288965v1 

ABSTRACT Background: SARS-CoV-2 has evolved rapidly, resulting in emergence of lineages with competitive advantage over one another. Co-infections with different SARS-CoV-2 lineages can give rise to recombinant lineages. To date, XBB lineage is the most widespread recombinant lineage worldwide, with the recently named XBB.1.16 lineage causing a surge in the number of COVID-19 cases in India.

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Results: A total of 2,944 sequences were downloaded from the GISAID database, of which 2,856 were included in the study following data curation. The sequences from India were dominated by the XBB.1.16* lineage (36.17%) followed by XBB.2.3* (12.11%) and XBB.1.5* (10.36%). 

Of the 2,856 cases, 693 were from Maharashtra; 386 of these were included in the clinical study. The clinical features of COVID-19 cases with XBB.1.16* infection (XBB.1.16* cases, 276 in number) showed that 92% of those had a symptomatic disease, with fever (67%), cough (42%), rhinorrhoea (33.7%), body ache (14.5%) and fatigue (14.1%) being the most common symptoms.

 Presence of comorbidity was found in 17.7% of the XBB.1.16* cases. 

Among the XBB.1.16* cases, 91.7% were vaccinated with at least one dose of vaccine against COVID-19. While 74.3% of XBB.1.16* cases were home-isolated; 25.7% needed hospitalization/institutional quarantine, of these, 33.8% needed oxygen therapy. 

Out of 276 XBB.1.16* cases, seven (2.5%) cases succumbed to the disease. 

Majority of XBB.1.16* cases who died belonged to an elderly age group (60 years and above), had underlying comorbid condition/s, and needed supplemental oxygen therapy. The clinical features of COVID-19 cases infected with other co-circulating Omicron variants were similar to XBB.1.16* cases.

 Conclusion: The study reveals that XBB.1.16* lineage has become the most predominant SARS-CoV-2 lineage in India. The study also shows that the clinical features and outcome of XBB.1.16* cases were similar to those of other co-circulating Omicron lineage infected cases in Maharashtra, India.

The link came from [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/indian-study-shows-that-xbb-1-16-does-increase-risk-for-disease-severity-contrary-to-claims-by-clueless-experts-or-stupid-health-authorities[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/indian-study-shows-that-xbb-1-16-does-increase-risk-for-disease-severity-contrary-to-claims-by-clueless-experts-or-stupid-health-authorities TMN also mentions basic rules; social distancing, masks etc could limit risks...

Better vaccines, travel restrictions (DJ Diseases travel for free !) may be a good thing...but also TMN notices "politics/media" have given up on dealing with CoViD etc.