Economic Chaos waiting in the wings

One other thing, silver is flying right now because they are about to establish an ETF for it. I think this is one time when you can be sure that the underlying asset will fall in price after the initial wave of interest passes.

Yeah, it has been a hard habit to break for me as well. I wouldn't mind being the guy who makes his money from just the trades passing through his hands. I know I've made him some dough over the years.

think of this though....coin collectors.......beware

if i have 10 lbs of rice for $100 what am i really going to need gold or paper money for at all.........

if i had (and i do) extra rice i might ask for some wine or some cigs or maybe chocolate..........coffee.......medicines.........things i didnt have or had run out of. the last thing id want really in this scenario is a coin. somebody might want them.......id prefer to barter items for items, or even services.

we're talking during a food shortage and economic collapse people. there wont be pharmacists to barter gold for meds......he might want some help planning a garden though.

sure great...if you have extra cash after buying lots of preps and bartering foostuffs......(think wartime shortages) go buy some coins, but not ounces or bullions for heavens sake-your unless you think you might wanna buy a post pandemic  island or two.

because im just wondering who might be able to melt the gold down, will we have metalurgists? whos going to be commissioning jewlery to be made?

my opinion

But where I live, in my local are small time dealers will only pay you the value of junk gold, no matter what kind of gold you have. So, I’d have to say that if TSHTF bad, gold jewelry is a better trade item than gold coins.

CV hated history. all i know is that it repeats itself....and for that matter...i dont believe the economy could bounce back after a full scale pandemic.  so im all in favor of the jewlery...i have some (inherited pieces ie, a charm bracelet solid gold, each charm worth 2-400 dollars....cocktail rings etc.) but thanks for the advice.

all i know is you wont be bartering with much of anyone for a long while or until some sort of vaccine comes out.

Of course you realize that all this brings us directly back to the question of how far back in time society will be thrown by a pandemic. Some of you appear to believe it will be back to the hunter/gatherer stage. Others, back to a post-1929 world.

Do I hear global thermonuclear war? Who knows? If the population were sufficiently decimated, what would there be for the "Great Powers" to fight over? Not that that would stop them. Remember Dr. Strangelove and The Mineshaft Gap?

The infrastructure will survive, as will the vast reserves of accumulated knowledge and experience. The biggest change of all may be the change in our own aspirations. I suspect that we will all, even after a mild pandemic, examine our existing priorities and find them flawed.

I'll stick with barter items like rice, beans, (chickens...opps, ), coffee, hard candy, aspirin, etc. I'm stocking for six months, (the book said 24 weeks...ouch...I may need another month of food, there goes the cow). I just don't know enough about coins and stocks. I'm concerned about paying off the mortgage and land. How soon after the pandemic of 1918 did the banks foreclose on family farms and homes.? The credit cars are zero, but I worry about the mortgage. If we get sick and don't work, no mula....

I left the 401K alone. After the pandemic you will still need your retirement. I've paid off all the credit cards, keeping the fuel tanks 1/2 or better full. I'm working on paying off the mortage, my major concern. No work, no pay. After 24 weeks, you may wish your 401K plan were still intake, IMHO.

The owner of our local gas station said that gas is going up by 30 cents in the next 2-3 weeks and by mid-summer will be around $4.00  a gallon. This is in an east coast city. Fuel issues will also contribute to tanking the economy.

muskrat wrote: So we have peakoil and bird flu..and a hole list of diseases that have multiplied faster then bunnies...medicines are not helping...hummm....bomobs that could destroy the world..   I think I,ll rent a movie tonight..   I am also into peakoil...I watch what they are doing..

Go rent Gone WIth The Wind.

Rick, boy did you hit the nail on the head! Here in the states, we consider wealth to be money, homes, 401k's etc.

But in much of the world, the purest form of wealth is that which feeds the family every day. The backyard chickens which lay eggs every day until it gets to old and then goes in the pot, the hog that gets the leftovers until he goes in the pot, etc.

This type of wealth does not plan for retirement, it plans for the familys supper. As this form of wealth disappears, I fear many, many, people could die simply because the only wealth that they had was that which fed them every day.    

Fiddler, I do not mean any offence at all, but do you have any chickens, or other stock that you rely on to feed your family?

We do, and although it is not absolutely necessary for us now, we do rely on these as a backup, and during harder times, I myself have sold our eggs door to door to make money.

It is a form a wealth that has served us very well, and it is all some people have.

I guess my point is, if you cant eat, who is going to be worrying about 401k's, or the stock market, or anything else that we currently take for granted.

Greed will always be with us, and as long as it is, hunger will always be with us as well.

Im in the if you cant eat it it isnt worth much to me camp.

cv1632 wrote: Amethyst, were you talking to me, or just a general question?

I cashed in the 401 k plan went to all gold and cash. Just dont trust the markets when this bug hits. It'll be awful. Youre broker will tell you to invest while all this is happening. My dad told me a tiny piece of gold in auschwitz would save your life and it did. To each his own. Paper or gold. You make your own decision.

keeping the 401k for now - it's only about $3k anyway, and wouldn't help with preps much at this point.  it's our hedge against the ultra-mild or no pandemic scenario.  we put 100% in AAA bonds.  there will be panic, at some point, i think, but if it looks to me like things won't be that bad after all, 3-6 months from now, i would probably switch over to stocks.  you will be able to pick things up cheap when everyone else is operating in full panic mode.  i would buy a few individual stocks, or focus on an industry.  when everyone else is wondering how they will survive, i will be investing for the future.   don't ask me what, or when, i will just have to wait and see what happens.

Okay, now...

What to do?   My  hubby has $50,000 in his 401K.

Should we cash is out or what???

$50,000 will buy a helluva lot of tuna!

God bless us all...
Peggy

tazman wrote: I moved all of my 401k from stocks to bonds. Bonds are most conservative type of investment. When the market crashed in 2000, bonds were going up. I understand that corporations have to pay the bond holders first before the stock holders are paid. Our economy is based on stock market. There will always be a market and it will thrive.

I've retailed and wholesaled jewelry since the mid 1980s and it's the last thing I would recommend anyone buy for protection. Even if you can dump ten grand in silver to buy it at the best fabricated price in the world, you are still overpaying. Same with gold. Even if you got silver or gold jewelry at spot, you might have to sell at the price of the metal which means a smelting discount when you liquidate. Gemstones? The overhang on diamonds in America is 50 years. That means if not one new diamond entered the market there are enough diamonds, should women starting selling, to meet current annual demand for the stones for the next five decades. And, once again, you will get slaughtered when purchasing them (same with other stones).

I would assume H5N1 would bring deflation as well. When people lose their homes because they can't pay the mortage and there are five houses on a street up for sale at what is owed on them (or perhaps less) precious metal trinkets will not fair well either.

A pandemic will be the time to buy, not sell jewelry. Some exquisite pieces which have provenance will come on the market because people need the money. Labor is what should come out on top. The person with the knowledge and who is willing to go to the homes of the super-rich to fix their plumbing, rig up power, see their sewer works and slap in a water purifier may come out of that home with a Fabrage egg for the effort.