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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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New Flu Review

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bruss01 View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 13 2006 at 2:57pm

Hello all,

I'm a recent join-ee to this board, but I've been following the Avian Influenza topic for the past year or so.  I feel that I have a fairly comprehensive understanding of the topic, but it seems like not many of the people I come into contact with everyday, do.

I wanted to get something  to present to these people, something concise and understandable, that presented the facts in a clear and cohesive manner in a conversational tone that even the most ADD adult would be able to get thru without a dose of ritalin.  I wanted some examples of compelling situations that would command attention, without being so "over the top" as to incite disbelief, while still conveying the serious nature of the situation.  Something to "connect the dots" so to speak, a tying together in logical fashion all the separate bits of information on Avian Flu and drawing some obvious conclusions.

I have found nothing that fits that bill - and so I undertook to write one.  The post that follows is my attempt at constructing such a document.  I trust that many here are as well informed (or perhaps better informed) as myself, and can help catch any factual errors or add any instructive points that I may have missed.  Any constructive criticism is welcomed.

I confess that in addition to simply caring about people and wanting them to avoid hardship, my motives are not entirely altruistic.  One of my over-riding concerns is that during a pandemic crisis, those who are not part of their individual solution, become part of the collective problem.  The fewer people who are part of the collective problem, are fewer people I personally have to worry about becoming a problem to my community, to my neighborhood, and to my household. "I told you so" will be cold comfort if we who take this seriously turn out to be right. 

MODERATOR EDIT: I MOVED PRIMER TO STICKY THREAD "WHAT IS BIRD FLU FOR NEWBIES"



Edited by SophiaZoe
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bruss01 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bruss01 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 3:00pm
Sorry about the low contrast font - Moderator, can you make it more readable?  Until it's changed, readers can highlight it with the cursor for better readability.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tired Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 3:19pm
I used the cursor to highlight and read........

And I thought that I couldnt possibly get anymore freaked out......

Tonight should be lovely with all of the tossing and turning in bed while my mind replays worst case senarios over and over..........

Better to be safe than sorry....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ralphy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 3:33pm

Re - be responsible for your own food. As well as no refrigeration allow for no power to cook. Either you need your own power (camping stove and lots of fuel) to cook (rice, pasta) or choose items edible without cooking (muesli, I believe most of you guys call it "granola" etc).

Re mutation, recombination etc - the difference really does matter. Either way we are sure to end up with something that spreads - but if mutation it is likely to be similar in seriousness to H5N1 avian now (high kill). If it comes from recombination human and avian it is a throw of the dice anywhere on the line from current human to current avian. We could get lucky and end up with  nothing more than a very widespread seasonal flu. It will still kill a lot, but not a high %age. If we get lucky twice than this will give some immunity for subsequent waves, whether they are a different recombination or a mutation (of either the previous wave or of the Avian one year on).

Of course this doesn't mean you shouldn't prepare - assuming the best - well we aqre back to ants and grasshoppers... unless you enjoy the feeling of playing enforced Russian Roulette. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 3:36pm
great post.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ralphy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 3:39pm
I also meant to say that I like the summary bruss01 - but it will be hard to get the grasshoppers to listen even then
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote IdahoGirl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 3:47pm

bruss01, thanks for the information that you put together. I think that the reason why some people do not listen to this message is because they don't wont to belive it. If they ignore it maybe this will all go away. We certainly live in this kind of society, where one just ignores that which bothers them, or that which could alter theyre lives.

IdahGirl

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote libbyalex Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 6:07pm
This is an excellent post. I loved the marbles analogy! I just want to be able to print it out. Is there a way to make it more readable? Libby
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote meewee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 6:32pm

I couldn't have said it better myself...THANK_YOU!

meewee

God Bless us all!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 6:43pm

Bruss... I AM SO GRATEFULL THAT YOU FOUND YOUR WAY HERE!!! And yes, I am shouting on purpose!  Your posts blow me away.  They are cogent, well-informed and reasoned. 

THANK YOU for the above!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote meewee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 7:06pm

Another thought...If you chose to bury your head in the sand...think what is left up in the air...your A**! That is all that will be left to show what you possibly believe you really think about the current events that are coming down. And you cannot live on that!

Meewee

God Bless us all!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sure2Survive Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 7:08pm

bruss01,

Best post I have yet read!  Write a book for us! You are a spectacular writer,  whats your occupation? Just curious.

Thanks Again

Sucess requires eye's wide open
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 8:16pm
Bruss there are a few mistakes in your Primer.  The flu that comes around every year. It is not H1N1 it is H3N2.

Fifty percent of those sick people admitted to hospital have died from Avian Influenza.  That does not in any way equate to fifty percent of those who get it. 

The number who have had H5N1 Bird Flu is unknown as many have had it and did not even know they were sick.  The number may be in the millions.
Wherever antibody tests have been run, they show many people with H5N1 antibodies. In India, the poultry workers were tested and they showed positive for H5N1 antibodies.  Tests were run on peasants in China and it is estimated that millions of them have antibodies to H5N1.

Cold viruses are rhinoviruses (
positive single stranded RNA).  Flu viruses are Orthomyxoviridae (negative single-stranded RNA) a virus family that attacks vertibrates.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_classification
Though it may be possible, I don't think there could be much exchange of genetic material between the two type of viruses. They coil different ways.  Perhaps Dr. Niman would know.


Originally posted by bruss01 bruss01 wrote:

Bird Flu Primer

Some people will shrug off media reports of "Bird Flu" (or Avian Flu, as it is also known) by saying they don't usually get the flu, or that they have had the flu before but after a day or two in bed they're fine and that it's no big deal. These folks are not really getting the "big picture" but hopefully this primer will give them a foundation on which to gain a clearer understanding of just what we are talking about here, and why it's of such grave importance.  A certain measure of confusion is to be expected, since the topic is fairly complex, with several interdependent concepts that are necessary to understand as a whole.  The topic has been done a horrible injustice by the “sound byte” format employed by most news outlets.  It is hoped that this article can help put some of the pieces together in a cohesive, meaningful way in the mind of the reader.

The first thing to realize is, this is not your father's Oldsmobile.  In other words, the Avian Flu may share some viral characteristics with the regular "seasonal" flu we are accustomed to, but in terms of it's effects on individuals and it's potential to affect our daily lives and even our world, it is a whole 'nother business entirely.

Let's examine some differences.  Avian flu is fatal to about half the people who come down with it.  Please note, that survival percentage is based on the sick person receiving "advanced medical care" such as hospitalization, IV's, anti-viral medication, oxygen, round-the-clock nursing and a doctor's attention. We can only imagine what the mortality rate would be if "home care" such as bed-rest and plenty of fluids were the only available treatments. One of the most acute hallmark symptoms of the bird flu is severe bronchial infection (chest congestion) where people literally suffocate in their own fluids. This is a viral form of pneumonia that may be exacerbated by a secondary bacterial pneumonia infection, a one-two punch that is very difficult to recover from.  This is nearly impossible to treat adequately in a home care environment.

Why this big difference?  Because the common garden variety of flu that goes around each year is simply this year's version (mutation) of the same old flu that's been going around for the last 100 years or so (the H1N1 flu that wreaked havoc back in 1918, killing more people than died in WWI).  Most of us have been exposed to some form of it in the past, and have built up some antibodies and therefore have a little residual resistance when it comes around again in a slightly different form.  However this Avian flu is a totally new variety (H5N1) that no one has any residual immunity to.  Your immune system doesn't have a battle plan ready to deal with it.  With the common garden-variety flu the people most likely to die are the young, the old, and those with compromised immune systems, whereas with pandemic forms of influenza (which the avian flu is expected to become) the most likely to die are normally healthy adults between 20 and 40 years of age. Why?  Because the immune system, having no battle plan, "freaks out" and goes way overboard.  This over-reaction is known in medical jargon as a Cytokine Storm. Those healthy adults in the prime of life have the best immune systems, so when their immune systems go into "freak out" mode, they suffer the worst symptoms, which are caused in large part by the immune system itself.  Can anyone say "friendly fire"?

Some people believe that the avian flu is not much of a threat because it's something you can only catch from birds.  Although that may be true at the present moment, health authorities around the world are clamoring that this is only a temporary hedge.  Viruses are odd things - they work by invading your cells, and once inside your cell they open up their DNA capsule and use that DNA to turn the cell into a virus-reproduction factory.  So what happens if two or more different viruses happen to get into the same cell at the same time?  Say for instance an avian flu virus and a common cold virus?  Well, what happens is sometimes the DNA gets tangled up, exchanged, traded and mixed around.  Like a neighborhood full of boys playing marbles, each one goes home with a different batch of marbles than they came with.  That Avian flu virus that didn't have the ability to spread human-to-human, it just picked up some new tricks from that common cold virus it's been mixing it up with.  It's not a certain thing, in any given case.  But it is a virtual certainty that somewhere, somewhen, in someone - that certain "right" combination will come together.  Like winning the lottery, your odds of winning it are slim, but the odds of someone winning it, either this week or next or the week after, are virtually assured.  With each new case of someone catching the virus from a bird, the odds of a human-to-human transmission variation go up another notch.  Eventually we will have a "winner".  When that happens, the rules of the game will change entirely.

Some people might reassure themselves, thinking "I'm safe because I got a flu shot this year".  Let's examine that thought.  The flu shot that is available is based on the current version of the original H1N1 (the 1918 influenza) virus.  So great, let's say they're now immune to this year's H1N1.  But the body's immune system is very specific in the types of threats it recognizes.  The immunity you have to any variation of H1N1 doesn't offer any protection at all against H5N1 (avian flu).  None, nada, zip.  You might wonder, "Then why don't they make a vaccine against the avian flu?" The reason is because even if they did, it would only protect against the version you catch from birds - remember, in the human-to-human lottery, we do not yet have a "winner".  That H2H mutation is likely to be different enough from the current "bird only" virus that it wouldn't be likely to make a difference in whether you caught the avian flu or how serious your symptoms might be. Before the medical establishment can begin, before they can even start working on making a worthwhile vaccine, we must have a "winner" in the H2H lottery on which to base their work.  Any attempt before then would be wasted effort and resources - effort and resources that will be sorely needed for the real H2H vaccine production.

...



Edited by JoeNeubarth
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bruss01 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bruss01 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 10:06pm

Originally posted by JoeNeubarth JoeNeubarth wrote:

Bruss there are a few mistakes in your Primer.  The flu that comes around every year. It is not H1N1 it is H3N2.

Fifty percent of those sick people admitted to hospital have died from Avian Influenza.  That does not in any way equate to fifty percent of those who get it. 

Cold viruses are rhinoviruses (
positive single stranded RNA).  Flu viruses are Orthomyxoviridae (negative single-stranded RNA) a virus family that attacks vertibrates.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_classification
Though it may be possible, I don't think there could be much exchange of genetic material between the two type of viruses. They coil different ways.  Perhaps Dr. Niman would know.


JoeNeubarth,

Thanks for the feedback... although I appreciate the kind words and compliments from the many who responded,  I am no expert... just a guy trying to find out some answers and pass them along to others, hopefully in a condensed form that is understandable by the common everyday person. 

While I do want the primer to be correct (free from glaring errors) I am more concerned about being conceptually correct.  I remember hearing a news article about some kind of genetically modified plants that were being raised in a field, and plant researchers discovered nearby weeds of a completely different species that ended up with the same modified gene - How?  Plant viruses transferred the gene from one species to another.  I thought perhaps GM was the genie in the bottle when I first heard of it... it would grant our every dream come true, I hoped.  When I heard this account, I was stricken by the thougth that our genie bottle had turned out to be Pandora's box by mistake. 

Virii can and do swap and transfer genetic material between themselves and other species.  As far as the comparability and potential for genetic swapping between common cold and the H5N1 virus, I think it's less important precicely what existing human-to-human virus we are talking about, than it is about the concept that virii do in fact swap genetic material in ways that cause them to change their characteristics.  Again, keeping in mind that we want this to be understandable to 5th graders and up without being burried in so much technical material that the main point is diluted or lost.  Again, if I've made a conceptual blunder please set me straight.  Oversimplification is one thing, outright balderdash is something else entirely and not somewhere I want to go.  Before people can act, they must understand.  It has to be kept on a level that people can relate to. Go to http://www.informatics-review.com/FAQ/reading.html for a sad commentary on the reading comprehension level of the average American these days.

I believe that you are correct about the H3 strains, but am I correct in believing that they derive more or less directly from the H1 strains, rather than arising independently through animal or avian hosts such as the H5 strain appears to be doing?  That was the point I was trying to get at in a non-technical sort of way.  If that is not the case I may revise that portion.

The challenge to the 50% mortality is something I have heard challenged before.  There was word about some Japanese who came down with what seemed to be a mild flu, that had some people thinking that H5N1 wasn't such a tiger... then it turned out they were actually infected by some less virulent strain of virus.  As far a some people in Turkey having H5N1 specific antibodies, I think it's difficult to know how they developed those antibodies.  For instance, my blood is coursing right now with pneumonia antibodies, yet I've never had pneumonia.  I was exposed to pneumonia germs in inert form - a vaccine.  Is it possible that these people were exposed to H5N1 virus in weakened or inert form thru dust or imperfect sanitation?  Thru eating partially cooked chickens that had the virus? Who knows?  I hope that if this virus ever goes H2H, it is a WHOLE LOT LESS than 50% fatal, but it's too early to know that.  Is it better to have people too careful, or too careless?  I know which side of that equation I'd prefer to err on.  I'm having trouble seeing how we would get the dire warnings being broadcast on pandemicflu.gov if only 1 person out of a hundered had anything to worry about - warnings such as the municipal water being out.  That would take a pretty big societal impact to cause, yet they are treating it as a serious possibility, serious enough to announce to John Q Public, saying he needs to be prepared for that.  That's the sort of thing that makes me hesitant to discount the 50% mortality figure.

Thanks again for taking the time to offer a thoughtful critique, I look forward to any other help you can offer.  Maybe some others in the forum can comment on these and any other maters of concern.  Thanks everyone for the feedback and input.



Edited by bruss01
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Paul Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 10:28pm
Right on the button bruss,  It's amazing that the common flu hasn't been present in one of the bird flu victums already.  It certainly seems more than likely to occur soon and if that doesn't happen the mutation from random chance is just as scary.  I'll really be surprised if we dodge this bomb.  For once I would like to be wrong.  Dad gummit!!!
 
Seeking like minded individuals that would like to have a back up plan if this thing really takes hold. I'm in the midst of buying some very remote land and I need some earthy people to join me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2006 at 11:38pm
Originally posted by bruss01 bruss01 wrote:

Hello all,
I'm a recent join-ee to this board, but I've been following the Avian Influenza topic for the past year or so.  I wanted to present something concise and understandable, that presented the facts in a clear and cohesive manner in a conversational tone that even the most ADD adult would be able to get thru without a dose of ritalin. 

.. during a pandemic crisis, those who are not part of their individual solution, become part of the collective problem.  The fewer people who are part of the collective problem, are fewer people I personally have to worry about becoming a problem to my community and to my household. "I told you so" will be cold comfort if we who take this seriously turn out to be right.

Bruss,

Loved the "Bird Flu Primer".    Your're a gifted writer... riveting.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Madison Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2006 at 10:23am
bruss01 wrote:


>>Let's examine some differences.  Avian flu is fatal to about half the people who come down with it.  Please note, that survival percentage is based on the sick person receiving "advanced medical care" such as hospitalization, IV's, anti-viral medication, oxygen, round-the-clock nursing and a doctor's attention.

Avian flu is fatal to about half the people who come down with it -- and seek medical attention. Many people think there may be others who contract avian flu and are not sick enough to seek medical attention. They therefore go uncounted.

Cogito Ergo Spud - I Think Therefore I Yam
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