Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
“Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America |
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outsidethecamp
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 361 |
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My Dear Oldasrocks...
Please don't cry...I know exactly what you're feeling. Like you, I've cried many tears over this whole "BF thing". It's really overwhelming @ times. I can't help you out with a copy of the movie, but I can encourage you to start prepping if you haven't already. You're gonna be okay if you start prepping NOW. After the airing of the movie tonight things might start getting a little bit "sticky" when it comes to prepping, but don't give up. Dollar stores are the best!!! There are many people who didn't see the movie & are still in the dark when it comes to prepping. This will enable you to get ahead of the game & Prep, Prep, Prep!!! May our precious Lord help you & help us all... Peggy |
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I must admit that after going over a fair amount of disturbing information, I felt a bit overwhealmed. FACT : On the morning of 8 February, Nguyen Sy Tuan, a 21-year-old man from Thai Binh, a province 100 miles southeast of Hanoi, visited a neighbour who, like millions of rural Vietnamese, raises chickens and ducks in his yard, and bought some duck for the pot. With the help of his mother he slaughtered the fowl in the kitchen, then poured the duck's blood into a bowl and added vinegar to stop it congealing. He then set about preparing the broth. Within an hour or so the pudding was ready and he, his mother, his father and his two sisters, aged 14 and 27, sat down to consume several bowls. Five days later, on 13 February, Sy Tuan began to feel unwell. He had a headache and a slight fever. Thinking he had common or garden flu, his family dosed him with aspirin and tucked him up in bed. But two days later, on 15 February, his fever shot up to 40C. On 20 February, he started coughing and complaining of chest pains. By the time Sy Tuan was transferred from the local Thai Binh hospital to Hanoi's Institute for Clinical Research into Tropical Diseases two days later, the damage had been done. According to Dr Nguyen Tuong Van, the director of the hospital's emergency ward, it was like looking at a patient 'in the advanced stages of HIV'. 'When I examined his chest X-ray there were white shadows everywhere,' she told me in her consulting office in Hanoi, on a brief respite from her rounds. 'I had no choice but to intubate and put him on a respirator.' The shadows were a sure sign that the infection had already invaded Sy Tuan's respiratory tract and begun eating away at his lung tissue. That evening, mindful of scientists' warnings that H5N1 was on the brink of mutating into a virus that could transmit itself between humans, I donned a surgical gown and mask and went to see Sy Tuan for myself. I found him in a room off a corridor marked 'quarantine'. A plastic hose led from his mouth to a respirator beside his bed. Although the machine was the only thing keeping him alive it was doing little to ease his breathing. His knees were doubled up in pain and beneath the blanket I could see that his heart was pounding furiously. To my surprise, Sy Tuan was not alone. In the bed next to him, watching with wide black eyes, was his 14-year-old sister. Two days after her brother had been rushed to hospital she'd also started running a high fever and had to be admitted. Like her brother she would also test positive for H5N1. 'We'd heard about the bird flu, but we never imagined it would infect our family,' their older sister, Nguyen Nhung Ngoan, told me in the corridor that evening. 'We are really scared because we know it is a very serious disease.' Then, grasping her own mask closer to her mouth for protection, she added: 'All we can do is pray they will recover.' FACT: On hearing of Hung's case, the WHO asked the Vietnamese government for nasal swabs and sent the specimens to a laboratory in Tokyo for analysis. But though tests confirmed Hung had H5N1, the specimens were not good enough to allow the WHO to culture the virus and conduct more precise molecular studies which would show whether or not it was identical to the avian strain or had mutated. The WHO is now conducting virulence studies in animals which may answer that. For the moment,' says Peter Horby, the WHO's representative in Hanoi, 'we cannot rule out the possibility that this was a case of human-to-human transmission.' FACT:Infection of the gastrointestinal tract by avian influenza virus, including H5N1, is common in avian species (23,24). However, involvement of the gastrointestinal tract in H1 and H3 influenza infection is rare in humans (25). A patient with H5N1 influenza virus infection was reported to have diarrhea as the initial symptom, which raises the question of whether the gastrointestinal tract may is another site of viral replication and shedding, similar to its function in avian species (26). In another recent report of a patient with a fatal H5N1 infection and severe diarrhea and encephalitis in Vietnam, the virus was found in a rectal swab (27). Our data confirm that H5N1 influenza virus replication can occur in the gastrointestinal tract even in the absence of diarrhea. However, we do not know the extent of viral shedding in stool in this patient. The absence of pathologic changes in the intestine, despite the viral replication, is intriguing. Observation :Although there are numerous sites and colorful presentations which strongly refute certain cases, there is sufficient data to support a high possibility that 1) Human to human transmission is possible and has occured. 2) Considerable effort is being made to debunk or ridicule data which may have a devastating effect on the economy and poultry industry. 3) Given the very limited screening resources within entire states for human infection, especially the lack of reporting of intestinal or other system involvement which may be a subtype of Avian, it is likley many infections have been and will still go unreported. 4) Although there are plans in place to deal with outbreaks and attempt containment, airports will not be shut down, borders will not be closed, the containment of the spread of a pandemic would be very difficult. Some Hope : In Russia, the U.S. and several other labs progress has been made in developing a vaccine for H5N1 and also variant strains. It is certain that a percentage of the population even if infected will exhibit no symptoms, or survive the infection. However, devastating the loss, or number of species involved, some will survive the Pandemic. Suggestion: The focus should be on efforts to improve the chance of survival you and your family. This means storing food and water and buying it before and IF a pandemic arrives and it will be difficult if not impossible to secure more food and water. Who to tell what? What should the media publish? It is a given we cannot rely on the media for accuracy. In some areas, there will be significant information which is not published, in other areas there will be bold faced untrue statements issued in the light of overwheaming evidence to the contrary. The Internet is filled with blogs and other type of sites which are filled with conjecture and misquotes of information. This is true of both sides; those dismissing the severity of the problem, those amplifying conjecture and restating it as fact. Try to keep an open and discerning mind for the wisdom to the know the difference. |
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daddog36
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 119 |
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One thing the movie showed is local quarantines dont work. How ever I think closeing the boarder to keep h5n1 out might in a h2h situation. What does anyone else think?
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daddog36
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prprd1
advanced Member Joined: March 13 2006 Status: Offline Points: 28 |
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I vaguely recall before Katrina there was a made for TV movie Called "Oil Storm” The plot was basically a category 4 or 5 hurricane hit the eastern coast of Texas and southern Louisiana the aftermath and the effects is had on the nations economy... Yet we still saw how the actual results of Katrina turned out! I am afraid this could much the same if not worse.
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bullets and water!
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NOTE TO OUTSIDETHECAMP
I am more prepared that the majority of the people here. I need the show tape to convince my family that there is a potential problem. I'm the loony one in the family to believe BF can be a problem,. My wife is from Taiwan and through her contacts in china we strongly believe that it has gone to human transmission although have no proof. |
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outsidethecamp
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 361 |
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Hello Oldasrocks...
I'm so happy to hear that you & your family are starting to prepare... I would REALLY like to talk to you via personal message. Please contact me....outsidethecamp@yahoo.com May our precious Lord & Savior Jesus Christ help us all!!! Peggy |
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fiddlerdave2
V.I.P. Member Joined: April 18 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 150 |
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" How ever I think closeing the boarder to keep h5n1 out might in a h2h situation. What does anyone else think?"
We cannot close the borders...Physically we cannot, even with billions of dollars in fences.
But how would we live? Everything we use in our homes, businesses, and hospitals comes from overseas. Businesses would have to pay more for labor, without illegals to do work for little. Millions of American refugees will be pouring out into rural areas as well in Mexico and Canada, where there may be more to eat, at least people will think it will. Most of the border towns move 100's of thousands of people a day. I think, in San Diego, about 35,000 people commute to work each day across the border from Tijuana.
And why do you think the disease will COME from Mexico and Canada? We will probably infect THEM!
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Dave
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mini-mouse
Valued Member Joined: January 29 2006 Status: Offline Points: 105 |
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Olsasrocks - Would you be able to share some of the information that your wife is receiving from her contacts in China about human to human transmission? I for one would be very grateful to hear something coming through sources that aren't trying to hide and cover up information. If you can pass on anything it would be gladly received. Thanks!
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As I said before we can offer no proof. WE can only tell you what we
have heard through the grape vine. That grape vine says people are
catching the BF from other people and lots are sick.
Possibly most of this is misdiagnosed. People everywhere tend to panic not only in America. I would think the panic would even be worse in a country where the goverment tells nothing. I honestly do not know what to think about this news. My wife thinks its 98% correct. I don't speak Manderin so I only get what wife tells me. Personally I'm more worried about Africa from which we get no news from. |
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oknut
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 04 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 847 |
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Bird flu TV show was good for one thing -- revealing our apathy
BETH BRAGG COMMENT (Published: May 12, 2006) The birds and the French are the obvious villains in the television movie "Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America,'' but let's not forget a third bad guy: The governor of Virginia. Both of them. The fictional governor, finding himself at ground zero of an American pandemic, barricades himself in a bunker, speaks to health officials through plexiglass and quarantines neighborhoods with cyclone fences and barbed wire. The real governor, in an interview on ABC's ''Nightline'' following the movie, refused to answer when asked about the size of his state's supply of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu. He actually squirmed in his seat while implying the answer is something best kept secret. "I'm amazed at the governor of Virginia, that he wouldn't answer questions about vaccines,'' said Dr. Richard Mandsager, Alaska's public health director. "Everything I know about maintaining trust with the public is that you're honest with them.'' Mandsager doesn't hesitate to answer when asked the same question Virginia's governor dodged, even though the answer might scare you. Right now, he said, the state has fewer than 1,000 treatment courses -- each consisting of two pills a day for five days -- of Tamiflu. "By the first of January,'' he said, "we'll have 40,000 to 50,000.'' Even that wouldn't be enough to take care of everyone, should a pandemic hit, so the drugs would be rationed, just like in the movie. Health care workers are likely to get them first, most likely followed by public safety officials. As the state director of public health, Mandsager would help decide who gets the drugs and who doesn't. "To say it keeps me awake at night is putting it mildly,'' he said. He might try watching "Fatal Contact'' the next time he's tossing and turning. It'll put him right to sleep. For all the hype and criticism that preceded it, the ABC movie that aired Tuesday was a bust. It was long, tedious and a ratings disaster. Only 5.28 million viewers tuned in, about one-fifth the number who instead watched Fox's "American Idol" and "House" (a far superior and scarier show about disease). The movie placed fourth in its time slot among the four major networks. Yet the movie was high on the radar for folks like Mandsager. Health officials and scientists feared the movie's worst-case depiction of a pandemic would cause panic. "This movie is not a documentary,'' read a media advisory issued by the State of Alaska before the show aired. Since its airing, health officials continue to sort out fact from fiction. Many, Mandsager included, are particularly bothered by the movie's ending: a new mutation of the virus that wipes out an entire African village. "One hundred percent mortality seems unlikely, to say the least,'' Mandsager said. So was the portrayal of corpse management -- for lack of a better term -- that showed a front-end loader dumping dead bodies into a landfill. What the movie didn't exaggerate, Mandsager said, was the threat of power outages and electricity rationing during a pandemic. Those worries are of particular concern in Alaska's smaller towns and villages. "That's a big anxiety I have,'' he said. "If we have 30 or 40 percent of the work force getting sick, in a small town how many people are able to keep the generators going?'' Mandsager just returned from Nome, where he talked with officials and residents about preparing for something like a bird flu outbreak. He learned that just three people work at the city's power facility. "In many small towns it's just one or two people, so what's the plan?'' he said. What's the plan? You'd think after 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina we wouldn't be asking the question, but we are. If "Fatal Contact'' can be applauded for anything, it's for nudging us toward finding the answer. And we'll get right to work on it. As soon as "American Idol" wraps up. http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/anchorage/beth_bragg/story/7719661p-7630737c.html |
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More about Africa. Isn't it strange that millions of birds have
died in Africa and no human cases? We read stories about
how the poor people are digging up culled chickens and eating them yet
no human cases. Pictures of workers culling chickens bare footed with
clubs, blood spraying everywhere, yet no human cases. One story
of 25,000 chickens that died of the BF and when they went to bury them
the next day the local villiage had stolen every chicken to eat-yet no
human cases?
I think Afirca is a time bomb. At least if it does break out bad in china some news will leak out. In Africa I'm not so sure. Other than one little country down south where a human case was reported yesterday there is nothing even about birds dying. any ideas of how this can be studied and maybe changed? |
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http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7898&PID=66285#66285 oldasrocks: check out the link above, if you haven't already ... seems that Africa has just gone public with their 'first case' -- an itty bitty 2 year old! -k |
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Is there anywhere on the net that us Brits can get to see this programme?
or able to download it such as Limewire? anyone? thanks in add vance |
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Kev-I recorded it on disk ... complete w/ the awful commercials everyone's talking about. Only I have no idea how to make a copy! If I can find out how to do that ... you're welcome to have one! -k
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many, many thanks.
If you suss how to do a copy please PM me and I'll give you my address with pleasure. :) KevO |
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Hi Oknut,
Just goes to show how many people are ignoring the small warnings that are being fed into the public to promote awareness. I bet before the show aired that it would bomb on my own experiences with the people I know. I advised a young couple who are close to me to put a little away as they could, got the excuse "can't afford it" but a week later they could afford a 200.00 car stereo. People won't wake up until it hits. Sure won't be boring then huh?
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fiddlerdave2
V.I.P. Member Joined: April 18 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 150 |
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Africa could be having 1,000's of case, and no one would even notice. The place is a mess, think of the Sudan with refugee camps of 100's of 1000's of people. 30 million have AIDS, how do you tell someone has the BF with what happens to immune suppressed people with normal flu or any disease? Amny of the governments are incredibly corrupt, they will suppress ANY mention of BF until they can get their tons of cash (and themselves) to Switzerland.
When H5N1 takes out a small city in Africa, then we will hear of it.
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Dave
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oknut
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 04 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 847 |
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jo007athome,
After the movie aired, my step-brother emailed me asking for links and information on prepping. I took the time to send him information and links to many spots along with links to articles and a description of what we are stocking. I was so happy that they had decided to prepare. The next day he emailed the photo of the "dead" plastic flamingos to me along with a note speculating that it might already be here. He thought it was funny. |
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You know, thats exactly what I'm talking about. It's enough to make you want to shut up & do for yourself only.That's an idea!
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oknut
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 04 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 847 |
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You read my mind ....
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abbie
Adviser Group Joined: April 20 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 174 |
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I work with a girl from China. She has been here 1-2 years, she tells all of us not to eat chicken. She says it's worse than we know. That is all she ever says though, no more details. Most of my co-workers just laugh, none watched the movie. I quit saying anything to them about it. I would like to talk to her some more about why she is so concerned that we don't eat chicken but haven't got the right time to ask her.
One co-worker just returned from China, when I asked if he was concerned about BF he said no just jet lag and laughed. He couldn't believe I was concerned. Said he'd been warned by our Chinese co-worker not to eat chicken also, he laughed about that too. |
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Readymom,, Yes Look I mentioned they just reported their first human case.
What did I read about you having a copy of the movie????? I'll pay dearly for one. |
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Readymom, did you save it on CD or tape? Do you have a radio shack near you? They could copy it.
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HI O!
Yes, I have a radio shack ... do they do that kind of stuff? I already made one copy back onto a DVD. No problem doing it again, if you want one! -k
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Rreadymom, yes I would like a copy. as soon as they fix the PM's
I will send my E mail addy to you. I will pay you for it somehow.
Mike |
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Jhetta
Valued Member Joined: March 28 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1272 |
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Outstanding post
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