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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Epidemic - Africa
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    Posted: June 14 2006 at 4:41am

Epidemic - Africa

Event summary
GLIDE Number EP-20060614-6418-COG    
Event type Epidemic Date / time 14/06/2006 - 12:51:34 (Military Time, UTC)
Country Democratic Republic of the Congo Area -
County / State Oriental Province City -
Cause of event Unknow Log date 14/06/2006 - 12:51:34 (Military Time, UTC)
Damage level Catastrophic Time left - 
Latitude: N 1° 46.763 Longitude: E 29° 58.078
Number of deaths: 100 persons Number of injured persons: Not or Not data
DESCRIPTION
As of 13 June 2006, WHO has received reports of 100 deaths of suspected pneumonic plague, including 19 deaths in Ituri district, Oriental province. Suspected cases of bubonic plague have also been reported but the total number is not known at this time. Preliminary results from rapid diagnostic tests in the area confirm pneumonic plague. Additional laboratory analysis, including tests by culture, is ongoing on 18 samples. Ituri is known to be the most active focus of human plague worldwide, reporting around 1000 cases a year. The first cases in this outbreak occurred in a rural area, in the Zone de Santé of Linga, in mid-May. A team from Médecins sans Frontières (Switzerland), WHO and Ministry of Health has been in the area to assess the situation and provide support to the local health authorities. Isolation wards have been established to treat patients; close contacts are being traced and receiving chemoprophylaxis. However, control measures have been difficult to implement because of security concerns in the area.
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"Additional laboratory analysis, including tests by culture, is ongoing on 18 samples"  -Wonder what they are testing for with the additional analysis?

  • Pneumonic plague occurs when Y. pestis infects the lungs. This type of plague can spread from person to person through the air. Transmission can take place if someone breathes in aerosolized bacteria, which could happen in a bioterrorist attack. Pneumonic plague is also spread by breathing in Y. pestis suspended in respiratory droplets from a person (or animal) with pneumonic plague. Becoming infected in this way usually requires direct and close contact with the ill person or animal. Pneumonic plague may also occur if a person with bubonic or septicemic plague is untreated and the bacteria spread to the lungs.

  • With pneumonic plague, the first signs of illness are fever, headache, weakness, and rapidly developing pneumonia with shortness of breath, chest pain, cough, and sometimes bloody or watery sputum. The pneumonia progresses for 2 to 4 days and may cause respiratory failure and shock. Without early treatment, patients may die. http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/plague/factsheet.asp

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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 6:32am
    "WHO has received reports of 100 deaths of suspected pneumonic plague.."
     
    "Preliminary results from rapid diagnostic tests in the area confirm pneumonic plague."
     
    More yes, no, maybe...
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 7:00am
    All the diagnostic tests confirm is PNEUMONIA.  They are not lab tests.  The assumption is that it is Bubonic Plague because that is what has occured nearby in the past.  Not a bad assumption, but they could have also assumed Bird Flu, (except nobody makes that assumption initially.   ABBF strikes again!)

    "As of 13 June 2006, WHO has received reports of 100 deaths of suspected pneumonic plague, including 19 deaths in Ituri district, Oriental province. Suspected cases of bubonic plague have also been reported but the total number is not known at this time. Preliminary results from rapid diagnostic tests in the area confirm pneumonic plague. Additional laboratory analysis, including tests by culture, is ongoing on 18 samples. Ituri is known to be the most active focus of human plague worldwide, reporting around 1000 cases a year. The first cases in this outbreak occurred in a rural area, in the Zone de Santé of Linga, in mid-May. A team from Médecins sans Frontières (Switzerland), WHO and Ministry of Health has been in the area to assess the situation and provide support to the local health authorities. Isolation wards have been established to treat patients; close contacts are being traced and receiving chemoprophylaxis. However, control measures have been difficult to implement because of security concerns in the area."
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    Points: 206     		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote araywood Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 8:45am
    Are the symptoms the same as H5N1 do you think this could be a possible scape goat for H5N1???? 
    NO NEWS IS WHO NEWS
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 9:00am
    Current H5N1 symptoms in humans include (and range from) your typical seasonal flu symptoms (fever, muscle aches, sore throat, cough, headache, so on..) to eye infections, severe respiratory diseases, and pneumonia.
    The fever is very high, very hard time breathing, some have had diarrhea, and other ailments..
    But, from what I have read, the symptoms seem to be changing from cluster to cluster (mutation?).
     
    Pneumonic Plague symptoms are fever, headache, weakness, and rapidly developing pneumonia with shortness of breath, chest pain, cough, and sometimes bloody or watery sputum.
     
    (anyone correct me if I'm wrong)
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 9:06am
    Originally posted by Hope4Us Hope4Us wrote:

    Current H5N1 symptoms in humans include (and range from) your typical seasonal flu symptoms (fever, muscle aches, sore throat, cough, headache, so on..) to eye infections, severe respiratory diseases, and pneumonia.
    The fever is very high, very hard time breathing, some have had diarrhea, and other ailments..
    But, from what I have read, the symptoms seem to be changing from cluster to cluster (mutation?)....
     


    Influenza virus is constantly changing. 

    (Each time it replicates in a human) What virus that comes out (sneezing, coughing, spitting, tears.....) can be slightly different from what initially went in.

    Heaven help us if the host (human, pig, ...) has both H3 and H5 replicating in a cell at the same time.
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 9:13am
    Originally posted by JoeNeubarth JoeNeubarth wrote:


    Not a bad assumption, but they could have also assumed Bird
    Flu, (except nobody makes that assumption initially.   ABBF
    strikes again!)

        
    Seems like the whole world is in denial. Why is it that no one assumes BF, or wants to assume. It comes to our mind, it must come to someone's mind there too. Purely economical reasons?



        
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 9:25am
    Originally posted by grace grace wrote:

    Originally posted by JoeNeubarth JoeNeubarth wrote:


    Not a bad assumption, but they could have also assumed Bird
    Flu, (except nobody makes that assumption initially.   ABBF
    strikes again!)

        
    Seems like the whole world is in denial. Why is it that no one assumes BF, or wants to assume. It comes to our mind, it must come to someone's mind there too. Purely economical reasons?



        


    I've been trying to answer that question in my thoughts for a year now.  What I keep coming up with is

    1) denial
    2) economic
    3) avoid panic

    Most of the world is still in denial, but if they have accepted that Bird Flu is possible, they then look to the WHO or other governmental offices that know that economic damage could come from admission that it is in THEIR country.

    Finally they know that people can become very unstable if alarmed, (so they openly lie like hades to keep the people tranquil.) The "lie like hades thing" is most obvious in India (Mystery Illness) and in China were they denied that all the deaths due to pneumonia were bird flu for ten years (finally admitting that they had Bird Flu late last year.)
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 9:35am
    Originally posted by JoeNeubarth JoeNeubarth wrote:


    so they openly lie like hades to keep the people tranquil

        

    If you think of the moral implications of this, I think these people or any power to be will have a lot to account for, playing God like that. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes (better to be one of those investigative reporters that are extinct..).
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 10:37am
    Once this story broke, the world stepped in and silenced it.


    Moldavia: 17 People Die of Bird Flu?

    13.01.2006 14:45

    Bird flue is raging in the Orkhei Region in Moldavia.
    The web edition of "The New Dniestrian courier" reports that about 200 cases of people being infected with bird flu virus have been identified in Moldavia so far, most of them in the Orkhei Region. At least 17 people have already died.

    Officials in Kishinev have declined to comment on the report.
    http://inforos.com/?id=10444 
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    Points: 2     		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TopTop Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 10:52am
    Originally posted by JoeNeubarth JoeNeubarth wrote:

    Once this story broke, the world stepped in and silenced it.


    Moldavia: 17 People Die of Bird Flu?

    13.01.2006 14:45

    Bird flue is raging in the Orkhei Region in Moldavia.
    The web edition of "The New Dniestrian courier" reports that about 200 cases of people being infected with bird flu virus have been identified in Moldavia so far, most of them in the Orkhei Region. At least 17 people have already died.

    Officials in Kishinev have declined to comment on the report.
    http://inforos.com/?id=10444 


    Your source also is claiming the bird flu  is also a U.S.A bioweapon among a bunch of other outrageous stories.
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 11:04am
    So many different aliments breaking out all over the planet it seems.

    Someone must be buying this stuff on the internet:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,,1797056,00.html

    Need to be prepared for anything.
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 11:06am
    Not only "my source," but me as well. 

    It could be a US bioweapon.  Moreso I believe it was a Communist Chinese bio weapon that escaped from their Bio Weapons Lab in Hunan Province in 1996.

    Conjecture only.  That Russian (after years of indoctrination) still sees the US as the potential enemy and I still see the Communist Chinese as a potential enemy. Stories like that abound in newspapers all over the world.

    Facts are facts none the less, and there was an illness that was killing in Moldavia.  A few days later, Moldavia and Romania signed a mutual cooperation agreement with Romanian officials stepping in to "assist" Moldavia, and all future news stories about posible Bird flu deaths disappeared from their newspapers.

    What the people don't know won't hurt them (But it may kill them.)
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 11:06am
    Oh, for goodness sake, TopTop! Doesn't matter, since this topic is about a catostrphic epidemic in Africa that is occuring right now. I believe he was just trying to make a point.
    TopTop, do you have any comments on the 100 dead of suspected pneumonic plague?
     
    (I apologize for my bluntness with people who just want to bicker. Have three kids already in the house that do that, and starting to loose my patience.)
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 11:07am

    Suspected plague kills 100 in Congo, WHO says

    Jun 14, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – One hundred people have died in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) of suspected pneumonic plague, the World Health Organization (WHO) said today.

    Nineteen of the deaths occurred in Ituri district in the northeastern Oriental province, a plague hotbed, according to the WHO.

    Preliminary results from rapid diagnostic testing confirmed pneumonic plague, the least common but most lethal form of the disease, according to the WHO. Further laboratory analysis, including cultures, is ongoing, the WHO reported.

    The WHO also said suspected cases of bubonic plague have been reported in the country, but the number of cases was unknown.

    The WHO stated, "Ituri is known to be the most active focus of human plague worldwide, reporting around 1,000 cases a year. The first cases in this outbreak occurred in a rural area, in the Zone de Sante of Linga, in mid-May."

    A team from Medecins sans Frontieres (Doctors without Borders), the WHO, and the DRC Ministry of Health is in the outbreak area assessing the situation and helping local health authorities, according to the WHO.

    Officials have set up isolation wards to treat patients and are administering preventive drugs to close contacts of those infected. However, according to the WHO, control measures have been difficult to implement because of security concerns in the war-torn area.

    The plague bacterium, Yersinia pestis, circulates mainly among rodents and their fleas but occasionally spreads to humans. It is transmitted primarily by flea bites, direct contact, or inhalation of contaminated respiratory droplets.

    Plague kills 30% to 60% of infected people if left untreated, but it can be effectively treated with antibiotics and other measures if diagnosed in time, according to the WHO. Pneumonic plague accounts for only 2% of plague cases. About 99% of all plague cases and deaths occur in Africa.

    In March 2005, the WHO reported that 130 cases and 57 deaths from pneumonic plague had been reported in Zobia, Bas-Uele district in Oriental province of the DRC, dating back to Dec 15, 2004 (see CIDRAP story link below).

    See also:

    Jun 14 WHO statement on plague outbreak
    http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_06_14/en/index.html

    May 27, 2005, CIDRAP News article "Plague outbreak highlighted ongoing problem in Africa"

    CIDRAP plague overview

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    humm i see i  am making news today here. heres some info on this pneumonic  bubonic plague   desease
    http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/plague/trainingmodule/1/06.asp
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    Why would anyone cover up avian flu by calling it PLAGUE?

    Plague is a bigger boogeyman for most of the world than avian flu. Say "plague" and people say, "Black death! Eeek! Fleas! Rats! A third of the world died!"

    Say "Avian Flu" and they go, "That's not an issue yet, is it?" if not, "Huh?"

    Why would try to cover up AI by calling it something even scarier? Makes no sense.

    If any government tries to cover up bird flu when and if it goes pandemic they will likely call it seasonal influenza. THAT would make sense.

    As far as plague goes -- it's around and I wouldn't be surprised if it's underreported because, quite frankly, it's very sensitive to antiobiotics and if someone's got a nasty lung crud or a funny abcess or whatever, most doctors will throw antiobiotics (and maybe prednisone and albuterol) at the problem and not culture.

    You may get large outbreaks in a situation like this, however, where it's an impoverished country and they may not HAVE access to a few pennies worth of penicillin.

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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 11:46am
    They probably aren't covering up AF with the plague. But, as far as I know, people don't get freaked out about the plague because we are more familiar with it, and it can be treated.
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    Ituri is the hot spot i see

    lets look back at where the bird flu was reported
    bird flu invades congo
    march 19,2006
    http://avianflu.futurehs.com/?cat=173
    He said 100 of them died in a single day in Tshikapa, a town in the southcentral province of Kasai Occidental. He said the dead birds presented a danger to public health because tests had not been conducted.
    “The problem is that most of the dead chicken and ducks in Tshikapa have been eaten,” Ramazani said.
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 11:53am
    Thanks for the info. and map.
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 1:17pm
    Good article thank you...
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 1:25pm
    Besides the whole point of whether there is a cover-up, or no cover-up (maybe we went off topic there), the point was: why are they here only assuming it is the Pneumonic Plague and not wondering, thinking and testing if it could be BF as well.
        
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 4:45pm
    --COMMENT FROM PROMED
    ProMED-mail
    <promed@promedmail.org>

    [Primary pneumonic plague (one percent of natural plague
    presentations) arises as a result of inhalation of plague bacilli in
    infectious aerosols, such as would be produced when there are
    secondary pneumonic complications in bubonic/septicemic plague.

    Primary plague pneumonia has a short incubation period of 1-3 days,
    after which there is sudden onset of flu-like symptoms including
    fever, chills, headache, generalized body pains, weakness and chest
    discomfort. A cough develops with sputum production, which may be
    bloody, and increasing chest pain and difficulty in breathing. As the
    disease progresses, hypoxia (low oxygen concentration in the blood)
    and hemoptysis (coughing up blood) are prominent. The disease is
    invariably fatal unless antimicrobial therapy commences within 24
    hours of exposure.

    Patients with primary pneumonic plague generate large quantities of
    infectious aerosols that pose a significant risk to close contacts.
    CDC guidelines identify contacts within 2 meters as being at greatest
    risk and do not consider the organism likely to be carried through
    air ducts or vents. Persons who have been in contact with pneumonic
    plague patients or handling potentially infectious body fluids or
    tissues without appropriate protection should receive preventive
    antimicrobial therapy. The preferred antimicrobial agents for
    prophylaxis are tetracyclines, quinolones, or chloramphenicol.

    A map of Congo DR showing Oriental province, where Ituri is located,
    can be found at:
    <http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/africa/congo_demrep_pol98.jpg>.  - Mod.LL]

    [Of note, this is the same general area where there was a major outbreak of pneumonic and bubonic plague in 2005
     
     
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2006 at 4:49pm
    Date: Wed 14 Jun 2006
    From: Marianne Hopp <mjhopp12@yahoo.com>
    Source: WHO Outbreak Reports [edited]
    <http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_06_14/en/index.html>


    As of 13 Jun 2006, WHO has received reports of 100 deaths of
    suspected pneumonic plague, including 19 deaths in Ituri district,
    Oriental province. Suspected cases of bubonic plague have also been
    reported, but the total number is not known at this time. Preliminary
    results from rapid diagnostic tests in the area confirm pneumonic
    plague. Additional laboratory analysis, including tests by culture,
    is ongoing on 18 samples.

    Ituri is known to be the most active focus of human plague worldwide,
    reporting around 1000 cases a year. The 1st cases in this outbreak
    occurred in a rural area, in the Zone de Sante of Linga, in mid-May 2006.

    A team from Medecins sans Frontieres (Switzerland), WHO and Ministry
    of Health has been in the area to assess the situation and provide
    support to the local health authorities. Isolation wards have been
    established to treat patients; close contacts are being traced and
    receiving chemoprophylaxis. However, control measures have been
    difficult to implement because of security concerns in the area.

    For more information, see the fact sheet on plague at
    <http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs267/en/>.
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    		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 16 2006 at 11:19am

    Epidemic - Africa

    Event summary
    GLIDE Number EP-20060616-6444-COG    
    Event type Epidemic Date / time 16/06/2006 - 20:06:54 (Military Time, UTC)
    Country Democratic Republic of the Congo Area -
    County / State Ituri District City -
    Cause of event Unknow Log date 16/06/2006 - 20:06:54 (Military Time, UTC)
    Damage level Catastrophic Time left - 
    Latitude: N 1° 40.041 Longitude: E 27° 0.788
    Number of deaths: 20 persons Number of injured persons: 70 persons
    DESCRIPTION
    An outbreak of plague in the northeastern district of Ituri in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has killed 20 people out of 70 cases identified in the last three weeks, health officials said on Friday. "The figure is expected to rise as more reports arrive," said Lendunga Wapayer, the medical director of the Centre for Surveillance and Control of Plague in the northeast. Among those identified since mid-May were 44 cases of pulmonary plague, recorded in the Linga and Rethy health zones, about 120km to 150km northeast of Bunia, the main town in Ituri. "We have deployed a team to the area for the detection and confirmation of these cases," said Laurent Kambale, an epidemiologist with the United Nations World Health Organization (WHO) in Ituri. Kambale said two isolation units had been set up in Bubba, 135km north of Bunia, and at Kpandroma, 120km north of Bunia, for the treatment of plague patients. WHO is also handling the preparation and internment of those dying of plague and is in charge of the sick in the isolation sites. Despite these measures, the Centre for Surveillance and Control of Plague is concerned about the possible spread of the disease to other areas. "We have received news of the disease in Kabasa, Lenge and Vida, but we do not have the figures," said Innocent Umirambe, a laboratory technician at the surveillance centre. "The problem is that with the [civil] war, the population stays in the bush with the rats that are reservoirs of the disease," Wapayer said. "When they are displaced, they contaminate other places." Efforts are being made to contain the situation. "We have in place a team for sensitisation," said Mbitso Ngedza, a government official in Ituri. "We have also requested two vans for the medical teams." The surveillance teams also face logistic problems, as "all the machines, vehicles, motorbikes, etc, were destroyed during the war," he said.
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