Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Global Monkeypox outbreak ? |
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DanielleFredericksn
Experienced Member Joined: June 02 2022 Location: USA Status: Offline Points: 10 |
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What are the symptoms of monkeypox? |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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Welcome to the site Danielle, That's a good question. I'm sure anyone really knows because health authorities have been caught recycling their published photos of Shingles and relabelling them as Monkeypox. But here is an article about how to catch it and what the symptoms are from a UK newspaper last week. |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 96007 |
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[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/949085-discussion-thoughts-on-a-global-outbreak-of-monkeypox/page10?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/949085-discussion-thoughts-on-a-global-outbreak-of-monkeypox/page10?view=stream monkeypox discussion.... One additional thought...if the sexual exposure really represents an H2H transmission, you should be able to contact trace; that is to ask the patients who they had sex with in the past two weeks, and presumably, you'd get only a short list of people who you could check to see if they had previously been ill. This would NOT be the case if an infected condom or something similar had the result of infecting one or both sexual partners during the act. I feel like the former type of contact tracing should have been done already, and the fact that it's not turning up chains of transmission might argue against H2H spread. DJ...If monkeypox is a sexual transmitted disease most of the time why there seems to be NO contact tracing ? Even knowing where people with monkeypox have been may be worthwile...to see if surface spread links may show up... Children infected by monkeypox in WHO report: "Of the 10,141 cases where age was available, there were 72 (0.7%) cases reported aged 0-17, out of which 23 (0.2%) were aged 0-4." Note: Monkeypox in children has been historically more severe with significantly higher fatality. DJ [url]https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-outbreak-technical-briefings/investigation-into-monkeypox-outbreak-in-england-technical-briefing-4[/url] or https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-outbreak-technical-briefings/investigation-into-monkeypox-outbreak-in-england-technical-briefing-4 ; Potential levels of the outbreak in EnglandThe outbreak can be considered to fall into 1 of 4 potential levels of transmission: Level 1Incursions from rest of the world – small numbers of imported cases with limited onward transmission. Level 2Transmission within a defined sub-population. Level 3Transmission within multiple sub-populations or larger sub-population. Level 4Wider significant community transmission – with potential for endemic and local epi-zoonotic disease. These may be refined with better understanding of modes of transmission. At present, England is judged to be in Level 2 and is being closely monitored for any evidence of Level 3. I think lots of (western) countries may already be at level 3.... Important: The percent of child infections will most likely continue growing. The initial stage of the monkeypox pandemic was dominated by MSM community superspreader events. The incubation period can be 5-21 days and multiple periods must pass to show community transmission. and Study: Both surface and air samples tested positive for monkeypox virus "Replication-competent virus was identified in two of four samples selected for viral isolation, including from air samples collected during the bed linen change." - · Yesterday, the @WHO claimed: “FACT: The #monkeypox virus is NOT airborne” Let’s now see what this scientific study shows us. https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.21.22277864v1… This is evidence that the monkeypox virus is airborne. Please correct @WHO’s misinformation. @PeopleDocGeneva @mvankerkhove DJ So if monkeypox is spreading by air/surface contact tracing may have "limited use"...[url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.21.22277864v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.21.22277864v1 ; Findings We identified widespread surface contamination (66 positive out of 73 samples) in occupied patient rooms (MPXV DNA Ct values 24·7-38·6), on healthcare worker personal protective equipment after use, and in doffing areas (Ct 26·3-34·3). Five out of fifteen air samples taken were positive. Significantly, three of four air samples collected during a bed linen change in one patient’s room were positive (Ct 32·7-35·8). Replication-competent virus was identified in two of four samples selected for viral isolation, including from air samples collected during the bed linen change. Interpretation These data demonstrate significant contamination in isolation facilities and potential for aerosolisation of MPXV during specific activities. PPE contamination was observed after clinical contact and changing of bed linen. Additionally, contamination of hard surfaces in doffing areas supports the importance of cleaning protocols, PPE use and doffing procedures. - Current data on growth of the pandemic (daily new cases, 7 day average) showing accelerating growth. Now growing at ~600 cases per day (and increasing). DJ [url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1550860596199014402/photo/2[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1550860596199014402/photo/2 some models expect we may cross the million monkeypox cases by november... 19) A new reports finds that **72 children** have now gotten #monkeypox, despite limited testing. Rash and fever are the most common symptoms. https://worldhealthorg.shinyapps.io/mpx_global/ alarming when you think monkeypox testing is concentrated on gay men...so missing a lot of other spread... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/who-declares-monkeypox-a-pheic-as-tedros-overrides-advisors/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/who-declares-monkeypox-a-pheic-as-tedros-overrides-advisors/ ...spread started in may.... Outlook for monkeypox-virus=good; free travel, lots of hosts to infect...when will the first non-human monkeypox case be identified ? Outlook for us humans "not good"... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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I still don't think monkeypox is a problem. I think it's just another thing to try and keep us all in a state of fear. It's ridiculous that the WHO have declared it a global emergency. Just think how many Covid cases there were before that was declared a pandemic. Here in NZ we're told we should all be concerned about it because we have 2 cases. It's complete madness. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 96007 |
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Kiwimum, monkeypox may have -so far- been (part of) a cause of death for less then 5 people...As far as I understand maybe a few hundred needed-so far-hospitalcare...from that perspective I have to agree with you... However the WHO has been critized for running behind the facts with (a.o.) CoViD...There may be 1 million cases+ by november...If most healthissues remain mild in most cases even then maybe calling it an emergency may be overdoing it... [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern also was used for [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern#2016_Zika_virus_declaration[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern#2016_Zika_virus_declaration ... [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern#2016_Zika_virus_declaration[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern#2016_Zika_virus_declaration MERS was missed while it still is around and killing people...may recombine with CoViD... The chances of "western"monkeypox becoming like smallpox seem very limited... I think the major worry has to be the CoViD(vaccine) link...did CoViD(vaccines) cause this monkeypox outbreak... [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern#2016_Zika_virus_declaration[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern#2016_Zika_virus_declaration someone still following still lots of info... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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I agree Josh. I wish they would release details of the vaccination status of the monkeypox people. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 96007 |
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Combining monkeypox and CoViD may bring worse outcomes.... DJ-I find it a bit strange they are now starting to vaccinate some high risk groups against monkeypox...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/25/nl-starts-preventive-vaccination-monkeypox-amsterdam-hague[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/25/nl-starts-preventive-vaccination-monkeypox-amsterdam-hague Again-I am not an expert...but I think vaccinations against CoVid without stopping the spread resulted in immunity evading variants...Are we repeating this now in monkeypox ? With HIV/AIDS a.o. Cuba did "isolate" people testing positive for HIV and still having sex...STOP THE SPREAD should be priority #1 ! Given the high numbers of monkeypox cases-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory over 18,000 now confirmed stopping the spread has to be top of the list... Under the monkeypox cases - if I am correct- a lot of people did run above average risk for CoViD...so it is very likely a lot of them may have had CoViD in the past...why not use that info? I think a smaller group of them did get CoViD vaccinations...I expect a lot of them will not go for monkeypox vaccinations... Given spread by air/surface a.o. hotel workers seem to get infected...it is no longer a "gay disease"...several children also tested positive...Still sticking to "gay STD" is WRONG !!! New York, London, Amsterdam a.o. may see increase of spread via aerosol/contact.... Did "they" not learn a thing from earlier mistakes in strategies ? STOP THE SPREAD !!! Vaccines could make matters worse if you are unable to stop the spread ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 96007 |
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Some info on MPX; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory did get updated...76,713 confirmed cases, including susspected cases (at least) 86,780 global cases, 166 deaths (in these statistics) DJ-Given the still high numbers there may have been some mutations making it harder to contain...People may-for now-limit risks...but also that may decrease over time... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/949085-discussion-thoughts-on-a-global-outbreak-of-monkeypox?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/949085-discussion-thoughts-on-a-global-outbreak-of-monkeypox?view=stream ; Monkeypox cases are plummeting. Scientists are debating why and ; Translation Google Also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/other-diseases-ah/south-america-monkeypox/949533-argentina-2022-monkeypox/page2#post961463[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/other-diseases-ah/south-america-monkeypox/949533-argentina-2022-monkeypox/page2#post961463 ; Source: https://www.infobae.com/salud/2022/1...-en-argentina/ Monkeypox was diagnosed for the first time in a child in Argentina The boy is 10 years old and lives in the city of Buenos Aires. He had a fever and rashes. How the contagion occurred and what the case implies, according to experts in infectology and dermatology consulted by Infobae By Valeria Roman October 26, 2022 For the first time, monkeypox was diagnosed in a child in Argentina. He is 10 years old and lives in the city of Buenos Aires, according to the epidemiological bulletin of the Ministry of Health of the Nation. Since last May, when the first case of infection caused by the Monkeypox virus was confirmed in the country, most of those affected have been adults, with an average age of 35 years... ... In Argentina, between May and August, smallpox cases increased slowly. From the second half of August they grew "gradually". In the first week of October, a lower number of cases was registered than in the previous week. But in the second week of October, 85 confirmed cases were reported and another 20 were under study at the time of closing of the last epidemiological bulletin. It was the week with the most confirmed cases reported since the beginning of the outbreak in the country. "In relative terms, the average week-on-week increase registered for the last four weeks was 14%," said the epidemiology experts from the Health portfolio, referring to the evolution of the outbreak between the second half of September and the first half of October. In total, 627 cases of people with monkeypox have been confirmed in Argentina. Until now, the youngest patient registered was an 18-year-old adolescent. Now there was the case of the 10-year-old boy. As symptoms, the little boy had a fever greater than 38° and rashes on his arms. "As an epidemiological background, it is a close contact of a confirmed case, and the area of contagion would be within the family," the experts clarified. That is, the child had been a close contact of a relative who also had the infection. At the moment, "evolves favorably."... DJ If MPX would develop into more surface or aerosol spread it could become a bigger problem. Also co-infections may change both the virus as the outcome of disease. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 96007 |
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DJ...main strategy in M-pox is ignoring M-pox... [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/05/mmwr-five-recent-reports-on-mpox.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/05/mmwr-five-recent-reports-on-mpox.html ; Sixteen days ago the city of Chicago issued a HAN (Health Alert Network) alert on a cluster of recent Mpox cases (n=13), a large percentage (69%) which were fully vaccinated with the JYNNEOS vaccine. While this vaccine was never expected to be 100% protective, this outbreak has raised concerns over a new surge in cases this summer. Six days later the CDC released a nationwide HAN Update (see CDC HAN: Potential Risk for New Mpox Cases), and followed up with a live webinar 3 days later (see COCA Call : Mpox Update on Testing, Treatment, and Vaccination). Over the past week the CDC has also published 5 MMWR reports (3 on May 19th and 2 yesterday) on the potential for additional Mpox outbreaks, and the apparent effectiveness of the vaccine. - Although the WHO discontinued their PHEIC (Public Health Emergency of International Concern) status for Mpox just over two weeks ago, concerns over the future spread, and evolution, of this virus remain. Like all viruses, Monkeypox continues to evolve and diversify, as discussed in the 2014 EID Journal article Genomic Variability of Monkeypox Virus among Humans, Democratic Republic of the Congo, where the authors cautioned: Small genetic changes could favor adaptation to a human host, and this potential is greatest for pathogens with moderate transmission rates (such as MPXV) (40). The ability to spread rapidly and efficiently from human to human could enhance spread by travelers to new regions. And in a 2020 report, published by the Bulletin of the World Health Organization, researchers warned that our waning immunity to smallpox put society at greater risks of seeing Monkeypox epidemics (see WHO: Modelling Human-to-Human Transmission of Monkeypox). Last September The Lancet published a correspondence also warning of the dangers of failing to contain this virus:
Philip L F Johnson, Carl T Bergstrom, Roland R Regoes, Ira M Longini, M Elizabeth Halloran, Rustom Antia While most of the public seems to view mpox as a `niche' or `lifestyle' disease - and unlikely to affect them - the longer the virus circulates, the more opportunities it will have to widen its base and possibly evolve into something worse. We underestimate its potential at our own peril. DJ, testing/reporting in most countries is "poor"...most infected with M-pox may believe they run "limited risks" so most will NOT seek testing...We only see the tip of the ice-berg.... With CoViD also an immunity disease lots of other diseases get more chances...a higher number of other infectious diseases may result in mutations/new variants with further increased risks... M-pox can become a disease that one could catch very easily ! Maybe even airborne ??? It is very WRONG to see it as only gay...just like HIV/AIDS is not "just" a gay disease... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 96007 |
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[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/12/ecdc-risk-assessment-on-transmission.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/12/ecdc-risk-assessment-on-transmission.html ; Just over 10 days ago the WHO Reported the 1st Confirmed Cluster Of Sexually Transmitted MPXV Clade 1 in the DRC. Clade 1 Mpox is considered far more dangerous than clade IIb, which is currently spreading outside of Africa.
Last week, in CDC EID Journal: Clade I–Associated Mpox Cases Associated with Sexual Contact, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we looked at dispatch from the team in the DRC that discovered these clusters. They wrote: Population movement and previously unreported routes of transmission could exacerbate global distribution of MPXV, which could be compounded by the lack of routine diagnostic testing or inadequate access to rapid point-of-care testing. In view of this investigation, epidemiologic and genomic surveillance for MPXV, in both endemic and nonendemic regions, should be improved and strengthened. While obviously a concern, so far we've not seen any evidence of clade I transmission outside of the endemic regions of central Africa. To be fair, however, clade IIb was probably circulating internationally long before surveillance first identified it in the UK in May of 2022. DJ, a total lack !!!! of basic testing for health risks in international travel made SARS-2/CoViD into a pandemic...We do NOT learn a thing even from recent past... While reassuring, in the summer of 2021 - roughly 1 year before clade IIb Mpox began its world tour - the ECDC issued a risk assessment following a family cluster of Monkeypox cases in the UK (index case imported from Nigeria).
A perfectly reasonable assessment given the facts available at the time. But it does remind us that all risk assessments have a shelf life, and as the virus changes, so do the risks. DJ, [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mpox#Cause[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mpox#Cause ; Mpox in both humans and animals is caused by infection with the monkeypox virus – a double-stranded DNA virus in the genus Orthopoxvirus, family Poxviridae, making it closely related to the smallpox, cowpox, and vaccinia viruses. The two subtypes of virus are Clade I and Clade II.[1] Clade II is further divided into subclades: Clade IIa and Clade IIb. Cases identified as part of the 2022-2023 global outbreak are caused by Clade IIb.[1] Clade I is largely limited to the DRC and is estimated to cause more severe disease and higher mortality than Clades IIa and IIb.[26] The virus is considered to be endemic in tropical rainforest regions of Central and West Africa.[27] In addition to monkeys, the virus has been identified in Gambian pouched rats (Cricetomys gambianus), dormice (Graphiurus spp.) and African squirrels (Heliosciurus, and Funisciurus). The use of these animals as food may be an important source of transmission to humans.[1] - Mpox can be transmitted from one person to another through contact with infectious lesion material or fluid on the skin, in the mouth or on the genitals; this includes touching, close contact and during sex. It may also spread by means of respiratory droplets from talking, coughing or sneezing.[1][28] During the 2022–2023 outbreak, transmission between people was almost exclusively via sexual contact.[29] There is a lower risk of infection from fomites (objects which can become infectious after being touched by an infected person) such as clothing or bedding, but precautions should be taken.[28] The virus then enters the body through broken skin, or mucosal surfaces such as the mouth, respiratory tract, or genitals.[1] The natural reservoir of monkeypox virus is thought to be small mammals in tropical Africa.[27] The virus can be transmitted from animal to human from bites or scratches, or during activities such as hunting, skinning, or cooking infected animals.[1] So eating/contact with infected animals may spread the virus...Also indirect contact (with the infected person leaving behind the virus in a hotel bed etc) could bring further risks...If less immunity after CoViD is (very likely) also a factor we only can expect M-pox to become a major problem soon... we are simply not stopping/reducing any risk "to save the economy".... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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