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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Going to Defcon 6 & Declaring Pandemic

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Albert View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 22 2020 at 11:55am

Hello, friends! Temporary announcement. We're now going to Defcon 6 and declaring a pandemic. The WHO will declare it soon, but not waiting for it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 12:33pm
WOW! Albert! I think you are correct! I don't remember have we ever gone to a Alert Level 6?

I know Chuck does not see that this is very serious but my concern is when people panic everything will go down the tubes very fast. This country is a I will take care of me and SCREW everyone else. Like I said, when people start dying from this and schools close down TSWHTF.

I just finished doing my plywood needs just in case people get crazy and decide they want to try and break my 6 mil filmed windows...LOL! Surprise folks it will take you 10 minutes to try and get in by that time I will be ready! Now I have to take the time and effort to rent the truck and get this stuff...lucky the hardware store will cut the pieces like I need.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:07pm
Thank you FM. I love Chuck lol , but he's a Fed lol. Joke lol

Best to prepare.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:09pm
Bottom line - a pandemic has begun.   If you dispute this than you can always argue your case.

Chuck?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:13pm
Albert you need to put this as a sticky so everyone is aware. We all need to get our scrip meds which I just did and last minute items. I am thinking hard what I really need and do not have...Not MUCH luckily but people on our Forum need to know.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:13pm
We're declaring a pandemic here. It could be slow moving, but prepare none the less. The WHO will declare it shortly.      
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:14pm
Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Albert you need to put this as a sticky so everyone is aware. We all need to get our scrip meds which I just did and last minute items. I am thinking hard what I really need and do not have...Not MUCH luckily but people on our Forum need to know.


Ok
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:14pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Bottom line - a pandemic has begun.   If you dispute this than you can always argue your case.

Chuck?

It was a pandemic waiting to happen from day one, all the right ingredients = virus with no vaccine, significant number of mild cases that are hard to trace, origin in China, began during Chinese holiday etc. 

The question isn't "will this be a pandemic?"  but "will it have public health significance?" 

I still say "not so much."  We can control our exposure in the USA with social distancing, it has a low CFR for a new zoonotic infection, and it will, sadly, take down the old and infirm, leaving the young spared.  

Our biggest enemy is fear and panic, and AFT is stoking this.  I am not a fed, but a subject matter expert in public health with international reputation....trained in all the stuff we talk about on here.  

Believe me, there are MUCH worse scenarios than this cold virus gone nuts.  I could tell you, but somebody would then kill me. 
CRS, DrPH
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:15pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Albert you need to put this as a sticky so everyone is aware. We all need to get our scrip meds which I just did and last minute items. I am thinking hard what I really need and do not have...Not MUCH luckily but people on our Forum need to know.


Ok


That made me really LOL!   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:18pm
Admitedly I am not quite 60 yet, but Hubby is 75, a cancer patient (in remission) and has high blood pressure. He is an ex smoker too. So don't tell me this is nothing to worry about!!

This has me terrified.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:31pm
I don't think we stoke panic Chuck we are just trying to keep our families and ourselves alive. I have lost a child and do not EVER want to do that again. As my husband was dying he would say, "It is not our son dying, I am ok with this."

So believe me people will panic without our help as soon as they see people they know or family members die or they close the schools. Albert tried to get people from FB to come here and learn...they did not come from what I have seen. So panic will happen no matter what we say.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:38pm
Ok, Albert has been right before and this is nothing to sneer at, At least I would say that this could become a pandemic. I would honestly say that this is a at least defcon 5. We do need to listen to our resident expert opinion. Prepare   as if a pandemic is happening and get the meds that we need etc and supplies are ready.   We don't need to get anything else. We will go to Walmart Tuesday and get some more water and maybe a few comfort foods.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:39pm
I felt this had the potential almost four weeks ago to the day. I researched, looked at the data, what we knew/didn't know, and started social distancing, limiting social exposure (movies at home, church online, consolidating shopping trips, ordering online more, etc. ) about two weeks ago. But I'm in high probability area (Bay Area, CA). Problem is, perhaps like some here, I can't control who my family comes into contact with every day at this point. For that to change, it will take more confirmed local cases/deaths (I hope not!), and a more overt governmental/local health response. So, I'm doing my best to prepare, stock, stay healthy, and informing those close to me to practice solid hygiene habits.

If it is to be, it is to be. CRS is right about not panicking, as it doesn't help. It's likely some will die, hopefully not many, but that's not going to be a comfort to those that die or lose loved ones. For me, faith helps. As my elderly folks said when I explained the outlines of the danger, "Well, if you're a believer, you'll just get to the party earlier than you thought." Of course, they'll take precautions but ultimately, we should reflect on the temporal nature of life, and how precious each day truly is.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:41pm
If we overreact - we look silly.
If we underreact - we look damaged - or even good in black.

Err on the side of caution.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:42pm
Don't worry too much........

No-one gets out of this life Alive......

The planet needs to get rid of a few billions of us Humans

We killing it......and all the creatures that we make extinct ......

For our Ego's......and Money........

That's how i see it .........

I never worry

What will be, will be......

THE EARTH WILL SURVIVE......

we will be thinned out a bit...

No big deal.......

Don't Panic,Keep Calm, Carry On......

Do what you do best......

STAY SMART...... 



12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:45pm
Good call. I think it's a pandemic. It's spreading so fast. I agree with Chuck that for most people it will be a mild illness BUT the real problem will be the number of people who get seriously ill. There isn't a country in the world that has thousands of empty intensive care beds with staff just waiting for a pandemic. We're going to see many people die who would have survived under normal circumstances. We just don't have the facilities, staff or supplies to cope with huge numbers of very sick people.

So we've got to just try not to catch it in the first place.
You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:48pm
Over the years we all tracked H5n1,Swine,Ebola,Mers ,at times wondering if this is gonna be the big one,then elatedly we got to breath a sigh of relief every time. We are going to be witnesses to a life changing historic event,not seen since 1918 Spanish Flu. Even with a CFR of 2%, the loss of life will be tremendous, This will stretch our limits to the max,physically and emotionally. 
                 
                Betty Davis once said"fasten your seatbelt,it's gonna be a bumpy ride"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:49pm
You are all correct! We seem panicked but I am not because I will most likely be one of the first to get this crap. I work with kids who travel the world so I am at ground O. Just a fact!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:51pm
As soon as one HCW gets it and dies in the US, everyone will panic.You won't be able to placate the masses by telling them its "mild" and only "your elderly parents, aunts and uncles, grandmas and grandpas will succumb, so don't you worry"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John L. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:57pm
One key issue people are missing is that, yes the death rate is about 2%, but another 8% get very sick and only survive via extreme support like ventilators.
And these will be in short supply here, and are in no supply in parts of Africa and the Middle East. That is why this could get bad, though not a 1918 again at least.
It is obvious to me that initial pandemic spread has now begun in Japan, Iraq and Italy. I hope for a Miracle like warm weather impediment, but know better. I support Albert's decision.
John L.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:02pm
AFT going to Defcon 6 

Is not going to panic the Masses

The BBC will do that

It's all over the News......

South Korea,Italy,Iran ......
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:13pm
https://youtu.be/zAyjkaFYnzE........

Best show ever.......


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:15pm
Ok, this is likely going to make me sound like an idiot... but where do we see the defcon 5, 6 etc rating???? It used to be up on the right hand side of home screen, but I haven't seen it in 'forever'...? Did it get moved or...?

I remember there being discussion about it (at/after prev. big ebola outbreak) and I didn't like not being able to see it on phone, but now I can't see it at all???

And I do think a 6 is correct.
I do think WHO (aka WTF) will be forced to admit pandemic soon...
I don't believe it's 'the big slate wiper' but as I posted 2% number the other day - it's still a lot of ppl - and yes, the planet needs a huge reduction. The 5% needing ICU is going to claim more lives as we just don't have those numbers of beds (jmo)...
I also believe the economic fallout and supply chain disruptions COULD kill as many as the virus itself. Lack of antibiotics, heart meds and so many more - just one example of how.
If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:34pm
It is on Adobe Flash Player and it is going away Dec 2020. So no one is using it. Albert pays already too much I am sure for this site and all he does so I am sure when he can he will change it from Adobe to what ever is out there and new. I only know this because I just got a new computer and I asked my computer guy why Adobe FP did not show up so he told me the above.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:37pm
Originally posted by John L. John L. wrote:

One key issue people are missing is that, yes the death rate is about 2%, but another 8% get very sick and only survive via extreme support like ventilators.
And these will be in short supply here, and are in no supply in parts of Africa and the Middle East. That is why this could get bad, though not a 1918 again at least.
It is obvious to me that initial pandemic spread has now begun in Japan, Iraq and Italy. I hope for a Miracle like warm weather impediment, but know better. I support Albert's decision.


Excellent post.    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:39pm
Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

It is on Adobe Flash Player and it is going away Dec 2020. So no one is using it. Albert pays already too much I am sure for this site and all he does so I am sure when he can he will change it from Adobe to what ever is out there and new. I only know this because I just got a new computer and I asked my computer guy why Adobe FP did not show up so he told me the above.


Hi fm. Working on it all.   Fully understand we can't upload images and videos, and working on it
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:41pm
Hey I knew you were you have enough to worry about than that crap! You do so much already we have a lot to thank you for.
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Yes, Albert: THANKS!!
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What is sad, disgusting, infuriating, and completely avoidable is that the WHO should have declared Phase 5 two weeks ago, with Singapore, Japan, etc. cases. The WHO is clueless. Their new motto should be: "WHO KNOWS? WE SURE DON'T."

Phase 5 was designed to give CLEAR WARNING of a possible pandemic. Now, it is upon us, and they are caught flat-footed AGAIN, "leading from behind" only when it is OBVIOUS to all. Yes, they'll declare Phase 5 this week I think, then, after much waffling, belatedly a 6. Then, again, it's obvious to all.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:13pm
No doubt a pandemic has begun. Too much community spread emerging and not tied to China. The next pandemic has begun, in my opinion.      
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:16pm
I agree as I am now leaving to get my meds since the pharmacy just said it was ready. I am going to wait on getting plywood would like to have my son here to help, but getting last minute items this week. I want to be ready and not looking for stuff I need at the last minute.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote admin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:22pm
Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

I agree as I am now leaving to get my meds since the pharmacy just said it was ready. I am going to wait on getting plywood would like to have my son here to help, but getting last minute items this week. I want to be ready and not looking for stuff I need at the last minute.


Going to prep a little myself.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Emswally Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:24pm
I can’t wait.   Going to be transporting people.   I’m sure the company I work for is going to tell us that the N 95 mask , gloves and a gown are adequate to protect us.   
Of course once ICUs are inundated there won’t be a need to transport patients to higher care facilities in the bigger cities in Western US.    Predict refusals to transport without an isolation barrier or pod.    We are so Ill prepared for this.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rjw Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:33pm
To me babycats graphs prove Albert is right. China's extreme actions show something is up, has done for a while. Actions speak louder then words. When they closed down cities, unprecedented. I took notice then. 
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Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

It was a pandemic waiting to happen from day one, all the right ingredients = virus with no vaccine, significant number of mild cases that are hard to trace, origin in China, began during Chinese holiday etc. 

The question isn't "will this be a pandemic?"  but "will it have public health significance?" 
I still say "not so much."
I disagree.

If someone were to design a bioweapon with really high leathality and rapid disease progression, it would probably kill very few. Truly fast lethal viruses burn themselves out as people die before they can spread it much further. Ebola has a huge death rate, but it rarely makes it out of Africa and when it does it is intercepted relatively easily.

Conversely, a bug which leaves the best superspreaders (kids) asymptomatic and takes a long time to develop, but is not all that deadly gets time to spread massively.

Now, I am not saying this is a bioweapon. I don't think it is. But it sure ticks all the boxes for the damage one could do, assuming it was the infrastructure of 'the enemy' you wanted to wreck.

Most senior civil servants are over 60 (ring a bell Chuck?) as are a large number of politicians and the experts in many fields. The "maim one of 'the enemy's' soldiers and you take 7 people out of the theatre" also applies, with the huge length of time it puts people in the ICU for.

The strength lies in the hands of the young, but the wisdom and knowledge lies in the hands of the older.

I think there is loads to worry about.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Diligent Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:15pm
Moreover, declaring Status Pandemic - then by extension { absent a viable vaccine } next major announcement - Declaration of Martial Law - USA


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Maybe not tomorrow, but soon Dilligent.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sheep Lady Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:23pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:


Hello, friends! Temporary announcement. We're now going to Defcon 6 and declaring a pandemic. The WHO will declare it soon, but not waiting for it.



Is there a protocol for this Albert?
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so what does defcon 6 mean?  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:50pm
Sheep Lady and Marhall law Defcon 6 means we have a pandemic coming at us very soon...like maybe 1 - 2 -3 months out or less no one knows but it is getting very wide spread. So many of us who are preppers are getting our last things we need like script meds, otc meds and other things we may need to SIP. Shelter In Place SIP. China has SIP millions of people Italy has SIP 10 cities and we know other countries and cities will be shut down.


Now that being said do this all with the thought it could burn out...we are hoping but that may not happen and we could be similar to China in the next weeks or months. China has given us some time to get ready by isolating their population but not well enough not to spread it all over the world as you can see if you go to: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I hope this give you the information you wanted...please keep asking and we will try and explain what we all are talking about.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:53pm
If it is stopped by warm weather Why is it exploding in Australia which is in summer right now
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:54pm
And Iran which has highs in the 80
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:56pm
I do not think weather is going to save us on this one guys.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SchrödingersCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 5:09pm
Good call, Albert. I finished preps today.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 5:09pm
Don't think it's Exploding here,

 we have alot in quarantine ,

they citizens returning from affected area's

As far as I know
.....
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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