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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Going to Defcon 6 & Declaring Pandemic

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pheasant View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 5:16pm
Got mentally prepared, couple of weeks ago, finished updates this week....I'm still mulling CSR's synopsis on social unrest.....looking at rioting in Iran sways me a bit more, and the mask thing I'm still trying to digest...I simply refuse to be one of the poor sods in Iran or Italy under quarantine without a mask.....It defies logic to think you can buy stuff you need after the masses panic.......been through too many Hurricanes to buy that.

   There simply is not enough reasonable exits out of this...I cant find any good news except, "not as bad as SARS" "this is not 1918" etc: "It's not here yet" or (my favorite) "we are waiting for WHO guidance" or "there is no community spread at his time".

To Albert, I know its a brave thing, and risky to commit to it, but I think Its prudent.....Ty and everyone here for the honesty, advice, and all you guys do....each and every opinion and personal thought is appreciated.

   Lastly, remember this: Being prepared is a good thing , It's biblical (every faith) and if it is done in a rational, responsible way it is of no harm...and you feel better after :) I remember every time after i prep and set everything up for a impending hurricane i feel infinitely better, and actually find myself "looking around" and marveling at the other people who did not.

   Crap, just as I'm writing this i remembered i forgot to restock the wine....wife will be pissed, thankfully, i still have time :P

The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 6:03pm
Oh yeah! I forgot the wine and beer too! Back to the store again for me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hoosiermom22 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 6:05pm
Well, preps done (as much as possible) and headed out of town, for a few days at a festival. Prayers appreciated. Didn’t have the heart to cancel this last bit of fun for my hubby.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BeachMama Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 6:09pm
Albert, I respect and agree with your decision.

The rapidly hastening pace of infections in Iran and Italy, as well as the CDC’s recent teleconference, has removed whatever small doubt I had as to whether this would take off as a legitimate pandemic.

We sat down with our kids today and explained what “shelter in place” means, and how our lives may soon change.

I am completely terrified because my son and husband are due to go on a school trip on March 5th — to GREECE. I don’t want them to go, but I also can’t tell them not to — right? This is such a scary, uncertain time.

Thank you all for everything you do — for sharing your knowledge and your experience!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hoosiermom22 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 6:49pm
Well, preps done (as much as possible) and headed out of town, for a few days at a festival. Prayers appreciated. Didn’t have the heart to cancel this last bit of fun for my hubby.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Glupa Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 6:56pm
Personally I don’t believe this is a slate wiper but that doesn’t mean its not a potential game changer. IMO anyone who thinks a SARS-2 pandemic is no biggie isn’t really thinking this through very thoroughly.

Its NOT the same as the common cold. And, among other things, because this is a new virus MANY MANY more people will contract this bug than do the flu so doing a numbers to numbers dismissive comparison with the annual flu report is disingenuous. Even a CFR of 0.5 (around 5x the normal flu CFR) would be devastating if the majority of a given population contracts the virus.

We of all people should know that its not only the bug that is dangerous in a pandemic but all the ancillary knock-on effects as well. Most of us here live in developed, industrialized nations (what many refer to as “first world nations”) whose populations are not prepared for the types of disruptions that accompany a pandemic situation. People are used to and even demand that they get what they want, when they want it and heaven forbid their internet search takes longer than 3 seconds or their latte is not as hot as they like it. People will panic and that panic will be fueled by others on social media.

Nothing I’m saying is new to those of us who pay attention (pretty much everyone here) but there’s the other 98% who live their happy lives unburdened by our knowledge and who would have a sharp and slippery learning curve to catch up to reality.

-Supply chain disruptions of various severities.
-Shortages of medicine and medical treatment availability for routine illnesses and accidents.
-Financial disruptions.
-School closures and related workday child care problems.
-Transportation service disruptions (ie: planes, trains and automobiles.).
-Social disruptions (faith and leisure activities).
-Potential layoffs and loss of income for the vast amount of workers whose jobs cannot be done remotely.
-Overloaded Social Services Departments (Unemployment offices, public assistance offices and the like).

And since we don’t live in totalitarian societies the draconian measures taken by the Chinese government and the CCP do not apply to the spread of the virus in the countries in which we do live. Spread will be faster, more people will need intensive medical intervention than can be provided, and supply shortages will cause secondary injuries and perhaps even deaths that otherwise wouldn’t have happened.

I think the folks here are prudent, not panicky and rightly so. Think of it this way. Even a Chihuahua can ruin your day if he catches you with your pants down.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 7:09pm
Originally posted by Glupa Glupa wrote:

I think the folks here are prudent, not panicky and rightly so.

Think of it this way. Even a Chihuahua can ruin your day if he catches you with your pants down.




That is a very graphic image that suits all this and that made me LOL...

Agree 100% with everything above. I hate being told we're 'panicking' because we are looking at various scenarios and trying to be prepared for 'what might be'. The ones who will panic are those who have no plans, no preps, and are so 'normalacy biased' that they get broadsided when this hits - and can't get their latte' let alone at the perfect temp!!!
If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nc_girl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 7:17pm
Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Admitedly I am not quite 60 yet, but Hubby is 75, a cancer patient (in remission) and has high blood pressure. He is an ex smoker too. So don't tell me this is nothing to worry about!!

This has me terrified.

Omg!  I always thought you were a man Tech!  Don't know why but whoa!

Praying you and your family will be safe
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 7:24pm
Originally posted by nc_girl nc_girl wrote:

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Admitedly I am not quite 60 yet, but Hubby is 75, a cancer patient (in remission) and has high blood pressure. He is an ex smoker too. So don't tell me this is nothing to worry about!!

This has me terrified.


Omg!  I always thought you were a man Tech!  Don't know why but whoa!

Praying you and your family will be safe


I had the same reaction! LOL, so glad I'm not the only one nc_girl!
If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 8:18pm
*ahem* pandemics happen all the time, but they are often under-reported or not even reported.  

Drug-resistant gonorrhea is a pandemic, and a plague to sub-populations such as MSM (men who have sex with men).  

Many times, these things burn out on their own.  Other times, they take a lot of effort on the part of public health infrastructure.  SARS was an example of that. 

I'm not saying that folks won't get hurt or die with this one.  We can blame the idiot Chinese and their appetite for eating bushmeat, just as the African appetite for bushmeat led to AIDS, which has killed millions.  Millions.  That is still an explosive pandemic, but little discussed these days. 

Calm down, you'll most likely live.  There are worse threats that I have to worry about.  

HIV/AIDS PANDEMIC (AT ITS PEAK, 2005-2012)

Death Toll: 36 million
Cause: HIV/AIDS
First identified in Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1976, HIV/AIDS has truly proven itself as a global pandemic, killing more than 36 million people since 1981. Currently there are between 31 and 35 million people living with HIV, the vast majority of those are in Sub-Saharan Africa, where 5% of the population is infected, roughly 21 million people. As awareness has grown, new treatments have been developed that make HIV far more manageable, and many of those infected go on to lead productive lives. Between 2005 and 2012 the annual global deaths from HIV/AIDS dropped from 2.2 million to 1.6 million.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 8:21pm
Chuck will they shut down schools? Or do we go on like ok I am 70 and I may die but I will continue to work attitude.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 8:23pm
Oh and when the AIDS-HIV came along I did not have sex...I did not want that either.   I got married instead to a wonderful man who also did not want HIV!

OH, and after he passed I AGAIN do not have sex...LOL and yes I am fine and very happy!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote socalmom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 8:59pm
Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

*ahem* pandemics happen all the time, but they are often under-reported or not even reported.  

Drug-resistant gonorrhea is a pandemic, and a plague to sub-populations such as MSM (men who have sex with men).  

Many times, these things burn out on their own.  Other times, they take a lot of effort on the part of public health infrastructure.  SARS was an example of that. 

I'm not saying that folks won't get hurt or die with this one.  We can blame the idiot Chinese and their appetite for eating bushmeat, just as the African appetite for bushmeat led to AIDS, which has killed millions.  Millions.  That is still an explosive pandemic, but little discussed these days. 

Calm down, you'll most likely live.  There are worse threats that I have to worry about.  

<h2 style="-sizing: inherit; font-size: 2.25rem; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.28; margin: 1.625rem 0px; text-trans: uppercase; caret-color: rgb48, 50, 51; font-family: Lato, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif;">HIV/AIDS PANDEMIC (AT ITS PEAK, 2005-2012)</h2><p style="font-size: 16px; -sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.625rem; caret-color: rgb48, 50, 51; font-family: Lato, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif;">Death Toll: 36 million<br style="-sizing: inherit;">Cause: HIV/AIDS<br style="-sizing: inherit;">First identified in Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1976, HIV/AIDS has truly proven itself as a global pandemic, killing more than 36 million people since 1981. Currently there are between 31 and 35 million people living with HIV, the vast majority of those are in Sub-Saharan Africa, where 5% of the population is infected, roughly 21 million people. As awareness has grown, new treatments have been developed that make HIV far more manageable, and many of those infected go on to lead productive lives. Between 2005 and 2012 the annual global deaths from HIV/AIDS dropped from 2.2 million to 1.6 million.




I hope you're right, but I find little comfort in this. If I don't sleep around I can avoid Gonnorhea and HIV. This new coronavirus doesn't sound as easily avoidable. People seem to be catching from people that dont even have symptoms, and it doesn't seem to be hard to catch either.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 9:57pm
CRS: now I want to know what the worse things you have to worry about are!! Lol
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 11:52pm
Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Chuck will they shut down schools? Or do we go on like ok I am 70 and I may die but I will continue to work attitude.

No, I don't predict schools being shut down.  I've written H5N1 response plans in the past, and we realized that schools gave shelter to students in the inner city as well as their only source of nutrition.  

This will evolve into a community infection, and public health will grow accustomed to fighting it.  We did this with West Nile Virus, which came out of nowhere and has similar characteristics (elderly at risk).  
SARS-CoV2 will probably be a regular problem going forward, this was entirely unavoidable.   However, we have so many more serious infectious diseases that folks do not take seriously:

a) seasonal influenza is deadlier than COVID-19 by far, have you had your immunization?  

b) measles will kill more cases than COVID-19 thanks to anti-vaxxers.  

c) HIV is still around, and no, it is not only sex that is a transmission route.  Sorry to disappoint.  

I'm off of AFT now, I'll check in when I return.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 12:04am
Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Chuck will they shut down schools? Or do we go on like ok I am 70 and I may die but I will continue to work attitude.


No, I don't predict schools being shut down.  I've written H5N1 response plans in the past, and we realized that schools gave shelter to students in the inner city as well as their only source of nutrition.  

This will evolve into a community infection, and public health will grow accustomed to fighting it.  We did this with West Nile Virus, which came out of nowhere and has similar characteristics (elderly at risk).  
SARS-CoV2 will probably be a regular problem going forward, this was entirely unavoidable.   However, we have so many more serious infectious diseases that folks do not take seriously:

a) seasonal influenza is deadlier than COVID-19 by far, have you had your immunization?  

b) measles will kill more cases than COVID-19 thanks to anti-vaxxers.  

c) HIV is still around, and no, it is not only sex that is a transmission route.  Sorry to disappoint.  

I'm off of AFT now, I'll check in when I return.  


Yes I always get a quad flu shot...rather have 4 variants than 3 high dose
Get my dpt when recommended got measles vaccine and had the hard measles and almost died
HIV no blood trans fusions and no sex how else can I get it please tell it is not off toilet seats...lol
I take all diseases seriously that is why I have the full body suits with hoods, boots like they have for Ebola , disposable aprons goggles masks gloves. I lost one child I will do my best not to lose the only child I have left.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 12:32am

We're obviously not in a full blown pandemic, but just the beginning stages of it, in my personal view. A lot of experts are on the fence with it. We could be a good 2-3 weeks away from the WHO taking that step, but that's just a guess and assuming the community spread keeps increasing in various parts of the world.

As John mentioned, would be nice if burns itself out in the spring / summer months when warmer temps roll in, but we're also heading into winter soon in the Southern Hemisphere. Also no longer convinced it will burn out in the spring with warmer temps.

Having said that, since getting the flu / cold during the summer in the U.S. is a little rare, it should make it easy to spot infections during the summer i.e. if you get a "summer cold", it would most likely be the Coronavirus.




https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 1:22am
Newbie, NC girl, thank you. Prayers appreciated!

I'm very female and just 4"10' (but my feet keep growing - 4 sizes in as many years! - I'm Sideshow Bob's sister I think!). WillowbyBrat is my hubby and Technobrat my daughter.

My Dad used to say I had a man's mind. Maybe he was right.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 1:32am
Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:


I'm very female and just 4"10' (but my feet keep growing - 4 sizes in as many years!



Why do your feet keep growing? I've never heard of that. How bizarre.  I'm only 5'1'' but I pack a mean punch. Feet still the same size as always but I'll keep an eye on them. lol.
You can't fix stupid.
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I don't know. I've never heard of it either.
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Can't punch worth a light. Good judo.
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Weirdly I grew half an inch in height last year. I'm now officially 5'1'' and a half. I'm aiming for 5'3''. It just might take a while to get there. lol.
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Bad back and large chest - I'm shrinking! - appart from my feet.
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Not shrinking a redistribution of mass.
...........lol
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Back in 2005 I worked for DHS. One of the things I did was work on the H5N1 project for my area. The spread out of China is following the exact course we thought the H5N1 virus would spread from China.

I would guess, based on what we are seeing, we have about 60 days for final preps.

Things are getting in very short supply, like masks, gloves and other medical supplies.

I will be biting the bullet and ordering a full set of meds for myself and wife from Canada and pay full price. This will give me a small cushion in case it all goes bad.

Have the family ready, made a final order from Bulk Foods, prepared for a six month SIP for 10. Hope I do not have to use it.

Side note: I spent 4 months on a vent. Not fun. Could not walk for almost 5 weeks after I got off of it. Still can not take anything around my neck, like a pull over or sweater. I never, ever, want to go on a vent again.
Do not ever panic, stay calm and focused.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 5:08am
Sympathies, LittleJake. That truly sounds awful.

Thank you for the heads-up.

There is enough ridicule out there to make us preppers doubt ourselves occasionally.

Your information was sorely needed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (4) Thanks(4)   Quote LittleJake Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 6:29am
Technophobe: Never doubt that what you are doing is right. One of the discussion we had was how long we expected people to SIP with out Government help. The initial length was a minimum of 6 months. This was reduced to 3 weeks by the DHS HQ then 3 days by HHS (too hard on the poor to stock pile more than that) The CDC almost walked out in discus, they supported our initial recommendations, saying the longer people could hold out in a SIP situation the better the people would have a chance to survive. If we were able to keep the lights on and the water flowing, it was felt that the American people would not panic.   

Lots more on that but I do not know how much is still classified so I will leave it at that.

Just know that the longer you can hold out, the greater your chances of survival and with the way it looks at this point in time, they will be able to keep the lights on and the water flowing.
Do not ever panic, stay calm and focused.
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THANK YOU!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 6:50am
As Technophobe said, THANK YOU Little Jake!

question about the Canadian pharmacy, you still need a prescription to order from there, correct? So ordering from there because insurance won't fill more than 3 months at a time I'm assuming...?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BeachMama Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 7:06am
Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

*ahem* pandemics happen all the time, but they are often under-reported or not even reported.  

Drug-resistant gonorrhea is a pandemic, and a plague to sub-populations such as MSM (men who have sex with men).  

Many times, these things burn out on their own.  Other times, they take a lot of effort on the part of public health infrastructure.  SARS was an example of that. 

I'm not saying that folks won't get hurt or die with this one.  We can blame the idiot Chinese and their appetite for eating bushmeat, just as the African appetite for bushmeat led to AIDS, which has killed millions.  Millions.  That is still an explosive pandemic, but little discussed these days. 

Calm down, you'll most likely live.  There are worse threats that I have to worry about.  

<h2 style="-sizing: inherit; font-size: 2.25rem; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.28; margin: 1.625rem 0px; text-trans: uppercase; caret-color: rgb48, 50, 51; font-family: Lato, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif;">HIV/AIDS PANDEMIC (AT ITS PEAK, 2005-2012)</h2><p style="font-size: 16px; -sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.625rem; caret-color: rgb48, 50, 51; font-family: Lato, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif;">Death Toll: 36 million<br style="-sizing: inherit;">Cause: HIV/AIDS<br style="-sizing: inherit;">First identified in Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1976, HIV/AIDS....




...as a person whose niece and nephew were adopted from — and still partially culturally identify with — China, I find your extremely racist “idiot Chinese” comment to be ignorant, overly generalized, and very offensive.

Whatever academic influence you had with me is now gone. It takes one comment, CRS.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:04am
Hi BeachMama,

I don't believe CRS meant any harm with the statement, and was just being candid. I also don't believe it was an insult to all Chinese, but just more about some of the culture and what they eat, and how these viruses emerge from that. Chuck always seems to care about folks, and if he considers something a great risk for diseases to spawn, then he is outspoken about it. Many viruses emerge from China.

Anyway, Chuck is a good guy and he didn't mean any harm in it. It's almost similar to talking about a friend, and you say, God they can be an idiot at times, lol.

It's a toss-up between this virus being a lab accident, or from what they ate, and possibly a combination of both. And As the saying goes, "those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it", such as with things like this one.

Take care,
A


   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:17am
I concur with Albert, I lived in China for years. People shouldn't eat bats. Those who do are unwise. It's not all people, it's not all, or even many, Chinese. Most (nearly all) Chinese are disgusted by such things, too (like dog-eating). Most Chinese, like other people everywhere, are good and kind.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:21am
On another note, I suppose we're lucky that most deaths are with the elderly at this stage, although I believe many of those in serious / critical condition may not be elderly.

What's happening in Iran is still big concern. They seem to be dealing with a possible mutation. Since all of this is brand new and never seen before, still wonder if it could be really easy for this coronavirus to mix with another one, such as MERS. We know flu viruses mix, but could two super-corona bugs mix 100x easier and on instant contact? There are no studies on this as there have only been a few coronaviruses in history to ever make the leap from animals to humans, and we have never had two at once (that mutated from animals to humans) to be around at the same time. This is a very unique situation and many unknowns. If MERS & SARS are two cousins, it could be very easy for them instantly recombine on contact. The WHO needs to make gene sequencing in Iran a top priority, assuming Iran lets them in.

I realize this is just speculation, but the CFR in Iran sticks out like a sore thumb at the moment, and with the slate-wiping CFR there, lol.      
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sheep Lady Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:30am
Thank you FluMom.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gdeb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:41am
Chuck is one of the most if not the most knowledgeable on here, when it comes to pandemic disease information. In my opinion, now is not the time to be offended by anything he or anyone else says. There are way bigger problems coming our way that need attention.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote LittleJake Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:44am
Yes they do require a scrip.   However; since none of the drugs I need are controlled, I will talk with my Doctors and be honest with them as to why I want a scrip off line. All of my Doctors know me very well, we are always trying to find ways around drugs if we can (liver and Kidney issues) I feel that they would be willing on a one time emergency basis.
Do not ever panic, stay calm and focused.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote LittleJake Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:54am
Albert: Good call on your part. I was wondering when someone would start using the "P" word.

I would not expect the WHO to declare a Pandemic anytime soon.

When the WHO declares an official one, a whole lot of world wide laws by many nations go into effect.

This includes the closing of borders, holding of medical supplies in manufactured country for home use, stopping the shipment of food to other countries if deemed "critical" to the growing nation.

Lots of things which really make them very careful on declaring a "Pandemic".
Do not ever panic, stay calm and focused.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:26am
Albert, I think the high CFR in Iran may just be the fact that they haven't tested more. The most serious cases appeared first, because their epidemiological surveillance is bad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:29am
The WHO will I believe call a Pandemic when it hits the U.S. and people are dying here. Why because of the stock market...Lord forbid the U.S. stock market drops. I believe the WHO should say this Covid19 most likely will be a Pandemic we suggest that you put in food and water in for your family for 2-4 weeks at home to help stop the spread of this virus.

Get real WHO people need time to purchase extra food/water most live paycheck to paycheck but people can at least stock up on food they would normally use so they can keep their families safe.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:30am
Originally posted by LittleJake LittleJake wrote:

Albert: Good call on your part. I was wondering when someone would start using the "P" word.

I would not expect the WHO to declare a Pandemic anytime soon.

When the WHO declares an official one, a whole lot of world wide laws by many nations go into effect.

This includes the closing of borders, holding of medical supplies in manufactured country for home use, stopping the shipment of food to other countries if deemed "critical" to the growing nation.

Lots of things which really make them very careful on declaring a "Pandemic".


Hi LittleJake, thanks, and I agree. There are many repercussions that take place when the WHO makes the jump to declaring a pandemic. It will have a great economic impact on counties, as well as the fear factor. It could be a few weeks before they do it, assuming things continue at this rate.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:30am
LittleJake, thanks for your post. Very insightful. I had a similar impression of the US. Around 45-60 days, but new hot spots likely sooner.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:33am
Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

Albert, I think the high CFR in Iran may just be the fact that they haven't tested more. The most serious cases appeared first, because their epidemiological surveillance is bad.


Good point, and that may be true. It's all speculation at this point, and I hate going that route. This bug is constantly mutating. The incubation can change, how long it sticks on surfaces can change, how infectious it is and becomes changes, and how virulent it is, can also change. These things should be expected, and this thing is a mutating machine. This is why they are constantly gene sequencing to look for mutations. They also can't do a vaccine without the sequencing. My only point is, given the constant mutations, and with the higher CFR, to me it would be reckless not to investigate if something has changed once again with the virus. A mutation with more virulence can't be ruled out without contrary research / evidence. That's the WHO's job, I believe.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:53am
The WHO , Doctor Who and who what where and when are more trustworthy than the World Handout Organization. it is a mess, so we need to be more vigilant than the clowns who are in charge.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 1:23pm
Originally posted by ME163 ME163 wrote:

The WHO , Doctor Who and who what where and when are more trustworthy than the World Handout Organization. it is a mess, so we need to be more vigilant than the clowns who are in charge.


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