H10N7- Shape of things to come and that were

http://www.viswiki.com/en/H10N7

This a flash- so you will have to go to the link to view this.

Digging through history at NIH

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6870718

Influenza A outbreaks in Minnesota turkeys due to subtype H10N7 and possible transmission by waterfowl.

Avian influenza outbreaks in Minnesota involving the H10N7 subtype occurred on two turkey farms in 1979 and on a third in 1980. The H10N7 (Hav2 Neq1) subtype had not previously been detected in turkeys in Minnesota or reported in the United States. The clinical signs ranged from severe, with a mortality rate as high as 31%, to subclinical. Antigenically indistinguishable viruses were isolated from healthy mallards on a pond adjacent to the turkey farms, suggesting that the virus responsible for the outbreak may have been introduced by feral ducks.

comment: IMHO I consider 31-33% to be a possible CFR for the human Pandemic. Throughout my research, I am seeing a trend of the higher 63% WHO number falling as it may become Pandemic- but not as low as the incredibly conservative numbers for our health planners.

One Russian scientists was guessing up to a billion deaths. He is at the extreme of the spectrum and in a section of my writing stuff which is way up there- but it is not impossible.  During both the Bubonic Plague and Black Death in Europe we were seeing CFR of 30-50%.  This is the hefty Pandemic we do not want to happen. This is the one most claim will never happen.

So, you knew there had to be a punchline, right. Why would I post this? Because...

H10N7 is a subtype of the species Influenza A virus (sometimes called bird flu virus). In 2004 in Egypt H10N7 was reported for the first time in humans. It caused illness in two one-year old infants, residents of Ismaillia, Egypt; one child’s father a poultry merchant.^[1]

The first reported H10N7 outbreak in the US occurred in Minnesota on two turkey farms in 1979 and on a third in 1980. "The clinical signs ranged from severe, with a mortality rate as high as 31%, to subclinical. Antigenically indistinguishable viruses were isolated from healthy mallards on a pond adjacent to the turkey farms"

comment: There is your jump. Bird to human. 2004. Egypt.

document list here of subtypes

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/biofacts/avflu.html

Why mention this?

Real problems here dragging out the sequence in Egypt.

Now it gets more interesting.

Metapneumovirus - http://birdflubook.com/resources/0Fouchier141.pdf

Recently, several previously unrecognized respiratory viral
pathogens have been identified and several influenza A
virus subtypes, previously known to infect poultry and wild
birds, were transmitted to humans. Here we review the
recent literature on these respiratory viruses.
Recent findings
Human metapneumovirus has now been detected
worldwide, causing severe respiratory tract illnesses
primarily in very young, elderly and immunocompromised
individuals. Animal models and reverse genetic techniques
were designed for human metapneumovirus, and the first
vaccine candidates have been developed. Considerable
genetic and antigenic diversity was observed for human
metapneumovirus, but the implication of this diversity for
vaccine development and virus epidemiology requires
further study.

question: how many pathologists are going to be looking for this critter versus doing an H5N1 test?

And what happened in the Netherlands - throw in the common cold.

Two previously unrecognized human
coronaviruses were discovered in 2004 in The Netherlands
and Hong Kong.

a group...

Form your own opinions and lets get to sequencing what is going on in Egypt. There may be - several strains.

Medclinician

don't worry I won't say the P word. Yet.

FYI this is a partial..

Since its discovery in 2001 [3], hMPV has been detected
in all continents of the world. Several recent studies,
published after the first reviews on hMPV [4,5], have
shed interesting new light on its clinical impact and
epidemiology. Williams et al.[6


] estimated that hMPV
was the likely causative agent in 12% of young children
suffering from lower RTIs over a 25-year study period. In
this and other studies, hMPV was found to be the second
most detected pathogen in children