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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

H7N9 cases rise to 24 with 7 dead

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Albert View Drop Down
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    Posted: April 08 2013 at 4:38am

WHO Talks With China on Sending Bird Flu Team 

 

The World Health Organization is talking with the Chinese government about sending international experts to China to help investigate a new bird flu strain that has sickened at least 24 people, killing seven of them.

A 64-year-old retired man in Shanghai became the latest victim of the H7N9 bird flu virus that had previously not been known to infect humans, the city government said Monday.

The Shanghai government said the man died Sunday night, a week after first experiencing chills. He sought medical treatment last Wednesday for pneumonia-like conditions. By Sunday morning, his condition worsened, he was out of breath and was admitted to a ward for in-patient treatment. He died hours later.

Michael O'Leary, head of WHO's office in China, told reporters in Beijing on Monday that the international health organization had confidence in China's efforts to track and control the outbreak of H7N9 infections, but that growing interest in the virus globally has prompted WHO to consider sending a team.

The cases are of "great interest not only in the scientific community but in the world at large," O'Leary said at a joint press conference with China's national health agency. "WHO's responsibility in part is to make sure that we serve as liaison and linkage between China and the rest of the world."

The team would likely include epidemiological, laboratory and communications experts, but the matter was still being discussed by the two sides and it remained unclear if and when such a group would arrive, O'Leary said.

Aside from the latest fatality in Shanghai, China reported two more cases of human infection of the H7N9 bird flu virus on Monday, raising the total number of cases to 24 - all in the eastern part of the country. Most of the patients have become severely ill, and seven of them have died, however milder infections may be going undetected.

There could be additional infections, both among animals and humans, in other regions and authorities have stepped up measures to monitor cases of pneumonia with unexplained causes, said Liang Wannian, director of the Chinese health agency's H7N9 flu prevention and control office.

Liang said Chinese experts also were in the early stages of researching a possible vaccine for the virus, though it might not be needed if the virus remains only sporadically reported and if it does not spread easily among people.

The H7N9 strain previously was known only to infect birds, and officials say they do not know why the virus is infecting humans now. The virus has been detected in live poultry in several food markets where human cases have been found, leading officials to think people are most likely contracting the virus through direct contact with infected fowl.

Authorities have halted live poultry trade in cities where cases have been reported, and slaughtered fowl in markets where the virus has been detected.

Further investigations are underway and, for now, there's no evidence the virus is spreading easily between people. However, scientists are watching closely to see if the flu poses a substantial risk to public health or could potentially spark a global pandemic.

In 2003, China allowed WHO to send a five-member team to help investigate an outbreak of the fatal flu-like illness, SARS, after its own experts could not trace the source of the disease.

China's response at the time was slow. The government stayed silent for months after the first cases of an unidentified disease were reported, a cover-up that contributed to the spread of the virus to many parts of China and to two dozen other countries, killing hundreds of people.

International observers say that over the past decade, China's public health agencies have become increasingly forthcoming with information.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/china-reports-cases-bird-flu-virus-18899867


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 5:12am
This is a little interesting


<snip>

All of the eight suspected H7N9 cases in Taiwan have been cleared of infection, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said yesterday.

It added that it intends to send staff to China to gain a better understanding of the possibility of human-to-human transmissions of the H7N9 avian flu virus.

<snip> 

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2013/04/06/2003558910


Sounds to me that they suspect human-to-human transmission.  I suppose just because the WHO is praising China's great transparency, the CDC isn't buying into it and knows better, and are now getting involved.  The WHO got snowed by the Chinese on this one.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 6:33am
Albert you had commented that for several days China had announced 2 new cases. The last two days there have been 3 cases each day.

Any idea of if this is picking up rates of transmission or if the authorities are slowly releasing data to avoid a panic?

When I looked at the H1N1 figures countries started by giving daily updates, but after a time to avoid panic some countries went to reporting only weekly or at longer intervals.  This happened in Finland, and then the health authorities complained that people did not take things seriously enough to be vacinated (it turned out to be a bad vacine for children).  Eventually the figures were published and the death rate was a lot worse than initially reported.  It is a hard line between giving information and stopping people panicing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 6:51am
..

New H7N9 flu cases still sporadic, but numbers still mounting: WHO
By Helen Branswell, The Canadian Press | Associated Press – 28 mins ago...
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The World Health Organization says China is broadening its search for human cases of the new H7N9 flu.

A spokesperson for the Geneva-based global health agency says China is starting to test for the new strain across the country.

To date cases have been found only in four provinces in eastern China, near Shanghai.

But Gregory Hartl says Chinese authorities are starting to test for the virus through the country's surveillance network for influenza-like illnesses.

That means people sick with flu-like illnesses who seek care at sites in the network across China could be tested for H7N9.

To date China have confirmed 24 infections, with seven deaths.

It's not clear whether the clustering of cases in the four provinces means that those are the only places where infections are occurring, or whether broadening testing will turn up cases in more far-flung parts of the vast country.

Hartl said the work to find the animal reservoirs of the virus is also continuing. China's Agriculture Ministry and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization are collaborating, he said, and have collected more than 11,000 samples from various animal types to look for where the virus is hiding in nature.

So far H7N9 has been found in pigeons, quails and chickens.

Finding the virus in animals has been challenging because it currently doesn't sicken or kill poultry.

H7 flu viruses, like the better known H5 viruses, can come in two forms. They can be highly pathogenic, killing poultry, or can come in a low pathogenicity form. The new virus is the latter, meaning it can spread in a virtually invisible manner among poultry flocks.

However, low path H7 and H5 viruses will typically evolve to become high path viruses, if they circulate among poultry for long enough. (The designations of low path or high path relate to how the viruses act in poultry, and not how deadly — or not — these viruses are for people who become infected with them.)

Hartl says human infections continue to accumulate at a rate of two or three a day, but the WHO believes the cases are still sporadic, with "almost no evidence of human-to-human transmission of any type."

He explained he used the word "almost" because among the more than 600 contacts of cases that China is investigating, a few have shown signs of illness and need to be followed up.

At this point there may have been rare occasions of limited human-to-human spread, of the type that is occasionally seen with H5N1 bird flu, he acknowledged. Small clusters of H5N1 cases have occurred, but only among people who have had close contact with someone ill with the virus.

With H7N9, "there is absolutely no evidence of any sustained human-to-human transmission," Hartl says.

Experts trying to determine whether a flu virus is on the verge of breaking out to cause a pandemic look for easy and sustained spread from person to person, the type of transmission one sees with seasonal flu viruses.

This story is a contradiction by WHO, they say "almost no H2H" but say some people who were in contact with confirmed cases are also sick....

sounds like WHO does not want to step on any toes.....while at the same time sending a response team.


http://news.yahoo.com/h7n9-flu-cases-still-sporadic-numbers-still-mounting-131602005.html
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 7:12am
Hi Edwin,  Thanks for the question and comment.  I originally mentioned that the 2 cases per day that were being reported was a clear pattern for some reason, and my guess was that they were withholding cases and slow to report them, and so they wanted to space them out and do it slowly to avoid a potential panic as they tried to control it. Whatever the case, the 2 per day was a clear pattern in releasing the information.  Now the pattern has increased to 3 per day, which tells me the problem has worsened - and China is back to the same routine.  Of course all of this is my best guess, but it's hard to ignore a pattern, especially based on China's history in transparency, or lack thereof i should say.

Another thing that concerned me slightly was when the lead Chinese official stated that they're "confident they can control the bird flu outbreak".  In the last 7 1/2 years here following outbreaks, etc.,.. they have never mentioned that.  Normally the cases fizzled out, and then they would later state that it's been controlled. My instincts during that unusual early statement by the official in the midst of the outbreak told me they were being intentionally misleading and borderline lying.  It didn't seem right, and again, I had never seen that sort of statement in the last 7 plus years here.  Of course the WHO praised them for it and bought into it, but luckily the CDC didn't just buy into it and they're now getting involved.

Anyway, a lot of this is just personal speculation based on experience, but unfortunately speculation is all we can rely on at this point.  Now, are the cases increasing?  My guess is yes.   As opposed to previous chicken outbreaks on chicken farms, this one is infecting the poultry markets themselves, which will severely impact China, and that could be the cause for the Chinese official's premature statement - or lie.

Therefore, I'm inclined at the moment to think the situation is far from being controlled, and more likely out of control.  I hope I'm wrong.

Also, the constant statements by the WHO of "no sustained human-to-human transmission" leads me to believe some h2h is taking place.  I would hate to think the WHO is using China's playbook with this outbreak by being misleading.

Thanks Edwin and best of luck,

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 8:02am
I really wouldn't be surprised if we see a couple more cases being reported later today. 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote waterboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 8:26am
The World Health Organization says China is broadening its search for human cases of the new H7N9 flu. 
A spokesperson for the Geneva-based global health agency says China is starting to test for the new strain across the country. 
To date cases have been found only in four provinces in eastern China, near Shanghai. 
But Gregory Hartl says Chinese authorities are starting to test for the virus through the country’s surveillance network for influenza-like illnesses. 
That means people sick with flu-like illnesses who seek care at sites in the network across China could be tested for H7N9. 
To date China have confirmed 24 infections, with seven deaths. 
It’s not clear whether the clustering of cases in the four provinces means that those are the only places where infections are occurring, or whether broadening testing will turn up cases in more far-flung parts of the vast country. 
Hartl said the work to find the animal reservoirs of the virus is also continuing. China’s Agriculture Ministry and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization are collaborating, he said, and have collected more than 11,000 samples from various animal types to look for where the virus is hiding in nature. 
So far H7N9 has been found in pigeons, quails and chickens. 
Finding the virus in animals has been challenging because it currently doesn’t sicken or kill poultry. 
H7 flu viruses, like the better known H5 viruses, can come in two forms. They can be highly pathogenic, killing poultry, or can come in a low pathogenicity form. The new virus is the latter, meaning it can spread in a virtually invisible manner among poultry flocks. 
However, low path H7 and H5 viruses will typically evolve to become high path viruses, if they circulate among poultry for long enough. (The designations of low path or high path relate to how the viruses act in poultry, and not how deadly — or not — these viruses are for people who become infected with them.) 
Hartl says human infections continue to accumulate at a rate of two or three a day, but the WHO believes the cases are still sporadic, with “almost no evidence of human-to-human transmission of any type.” 
He explained he used the word “almost” because among the more than 600 contacts of cases that China is investigating, a few have shown signs of illness and need to be followed up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 8:33am
Gosh, is the WHO following this site and our opinions?   They mentioned 2 - 3 per day, and clarified their h2h statements.  They would be better off sending a team to China instead of trusting them on the "sporadic" cases claims.  If the WHO is merely going off China's word, then we have a bigger problem.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 11:47am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

  Sounds to me that they suspect human-to-human transmission. 


If not now, sometime in the near future according to this,

"The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is already working on a vaccine, using the virus’s genetic code  rather than the virus itself — a first for the agency, according to Nancy Cox, head of the CDC’s influenza division.

Although H7N9 is more easily transmittable from birds to humans than the original bird flu strain, H1N1, Cox said she expects to see limited human-to-human transmission."


http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/health/2013/04/08/h7n9-bird-flu-update-21-infected-6-dead/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 12:04pm
I agree.  Meant to say they suspect "some" h2h, qhich would mean limited.
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The World Heath Organisation (WHO) has denied there is evidence the H7N9 bird flu virus is being transmitted between people in China.

Concerns over human transmission arose in Shanghai after two sons of an elderly man - who was one of the earliest deaths from H7N9 - developed respiratory illness and one died.

The virus was later ruled out by Chinese authorities and the WHO's China representative Michael O'Leary has confirmed that finding.

"The family cluster raises the possibility of human-to-human transmission, but two of the cases in that cluster have not been laboratory confirmed," he told reporters in Beijing.

"Although we do not know the source of infection, at this time there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission."

China announced just over a week ago the virus had been found in humans for the first time, and the number of confirmed cases has since risen to 21, with six deaths.

Four of the deaths have been in the commercial hub of Shanghai, with the other two in the neighbouring province of Zhejiang.

Mr O'Leary praised China's transparency on the outbreak following criticism the announcement of the initial deaths was too slow.

"We are very satisfied and pleased with the level of information shared and we believe we have been kept fully updated on the situation," he said.

The first deaths from the virus were not reported by authorities until three weeks after they occurred.

Chinese officials said the delay in announcing the results was due to the time taken to determine the cause of the illness.

China faced condemnation a decade ago over accusations it covered up the 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which eventually killed about 800 people globally.

AFP

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pcusick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 1:10pm
The spread of H7N9 virus in asymptomatic poultry (chickens, pigeons, and ducks to date) and apparent sporadic nature of reported human cases bears watching.
Like the H5N1 and H1N1 strains, early cases and awareness are extremely important, even if this strain does not end up becoming easily transmissable between people.
As always, good information and situational awareness trump rumors and speculation.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 1:18pm
could some people be immune to the new variant  because they have lots of fowl around ?

 it could be h2h, remember in the  1918 pandemic 50% of people got the virus and 50% of

them died.

this looks bad but if this  was to recombine with Ncov,h1n1 or h5n1,which are still very much

around goodbye ................


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pcusick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 1:38pm
It is good to be concerned with the new strain, but caution on the extrapolation...
Wink
The 1918 pandemic was severe, but even at a 2.5% case fatality rate, it was less far less severe than the numbers you mention (50% ill and  50% of those dying, we have not yet seen a pandemic of this severe of an impact, and hopefully never will).
It is important to work with accurate information to avoid people dismissing the information that is important.
Actual numbers from National Institute of Health article (link below):

An estimated one third of the world's population (or ≈500 million persons) were infected and had clinically apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated at ≈50 million (57) and were arguably as high as 100 million (7).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rudy1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 1:46pm
This article is from April 5th...interesting.
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/10048-rising-pneumonia-cases-in-shanghai-amid-bird-flu-fears/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 3:00pm
We'll there's a blast from the past. Hello there pcusick. Good to see you. Love seeing the longtime members on here once again. Hope all is going well.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 3:02pm
Welcome to the forum Rudy. Very good find.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 3:12pm
More than just interesting, Rudy. Great find. If it's accurate, we're not just looking at massive underreporting of infections, but a fatality rate that almost mirrors the one we're being told about. If this could be confirmed, it's very disturbing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 7:10pm
I have never seen an outbreak in which the who or CDC wasn't present by now.  The only thing China learned is that if you want to hide something like this, first hide it from the WHO.  Hell, the WHO 2 days ago was praising China for their transparency as they would never suspect them again after SARS.  How does that saying go?  You can't change a zebra's stripes?  Meanwhile, Gregory Hartl of the WHO is praising them from his home while having dinner and a glass of wine. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote waterboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2013 at 8:07pm
Gov.Brown, and a group of business leaders are going to Shanghai Wednesday of this week to try to get China to do business in California. Their trip is going to be interesting.I wish them the best, and I bet they dont eat any fowl while they are there.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2013 at 4:11am
as i understand it, most people didnt  die from the bird flu in the past,

 they have died from the body trying to flush the virus from the system,

 in the 1918 pandemic peoples feet went black first, this was because the lungs were full of fluid which is the only way the body can flush the virus out,

 and they where suffering from oxygen starvation,ie pneumonia sound familiar ???

think we stuffed this time , time to start stocking up!!!
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the effect of the influenza epidemic was so severe that the average life span in the US was depressed by 10 years. The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%. The death rate for 15 to 34-year-olds of influenza and pneumonia were 20 times higher in 1918 than in previous years (Taubenberger). People were struck with illness on the street and died rapid deaths. One anectode shared of 1918 was of four women playing bridge together late into the night. Overnight, three of the women died from influenza (Hoagg). Others told stories of people on their way to work suddenly developing the flu and dying within hours (Henig). One physician writes that patients with seemingly ordinary influenza would rapidly "develop the most viscous type of pneumonia that has ever been seen" and later when cyanosis appeared in the patients, "it is simply a struggle for air until they suffocate," (Grist, 1979). Another physician recalls that the influenza patients "died struggling to clear their airways of a blood-tinged froth that sometimes gushed from their nose and mouth," (Starr, 1976). The physicians of the time were helpless against this powerful agent of influenza. In 1918 children would skip rope to the rhyme (Crawford):
The origins of this influenza variant is not precisely known. It is thought to have originated in China in a rare genetic shift of the influenza virus. The recombination of its surface proteins created a virus novel to almost everyone and a loss of herd immunity. Recently the virus has been reconstructed from the tissue of a dead soldier and is now being genetically characterized. The name of Spanish Flu came from the early affliction and large mortalities in Spain (BMJ,10/19/1918) where it allegedly killed 8 million in May (BMJ, 7/13/1918). However, a first wave of influenza appeared early in the spring of 1918 in Kansas and in military camps throughout the US. Few noticed the epidemic in the midst of the war. Wilson had just given his 14 point address. There was virtually no response or acknowledgment to the epidemics in March and April in the military camps. It was unfortunate that no steps were taken to prepare for the usual recrudescence of the virulent influenza strain in the winter. The lack of action was later criticized when the epidemic could not be ignored in the winter of 1918 (BMJ, 1918). These first epidemics at training camps were a sign of what was coming in greater magnitude in the fall and winter of 1918 to the entire world.
                                                                        



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2013 at 4:27am

The cases so far have all come from Shanghai and four surrounding provinces. Most have involved people who had direct contact with infected poultry. However, there might be milder cases of the illness that have gone undetected, acknowledged Liang Wannian, director of the Chinese health agency’s H7N9 flu prevention and control office.

What has frightened researchers is the speed with which the confirmed victims sickened and died. The 64-year-old man who was the latest victim sought medical treatment for a pneumonia-like illness on Wednesday, was admitted to the hospital on Sunday and died a few hours later. However, a 4-year-old boy from Shanghai was reported to have made a full recovery.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2013 at 4:27am
Now 8 Dead..

H7N9 Bird Flu Claims Eighth Death in China

A man confirmed to have caught H7N9 bird flu died on Tuesday in east China's Jiangsu Province, bringing the death toll from the virus to eight nationwide, authorities said.
[link to english.cri.cn]
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2013 at 12:10pm
Carbon - it was the victim's own immune system that killed them. The virus initiated a cytokine storm - an exaggerated immune response - and that's why the young and the healthy died in large numbers. Interestingly, many of the deaths in China right now are elderly.

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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