Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Hong Kong confirms human bird flu case |
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Kyle
Adviser Group Joined: May 29 2013 Location: Colorado, USA Status: Offline Points: 5800 |
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Maybe they even need to come up with a new test for H7N9? It could be highly undetected in Asia if H2H and if there's faulty test results.
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Crying Out Loud
Valued Member Joined: September 27 2013 Status: Offline Points: 1395 |
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*Edited by moderator
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Crying out loud - grow up and stop insulting other members. Kyle said nothing to justify your post.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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We can delete COL's posts faster than she can write them, but it might be advisable not to interact, argue or quote her as it creates copies within your post that we then have to find and delete. Thanks guys
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Kyle
Adviser Group Joined: May 29 2013 Location: Colorado, USA Status: Offline Points: 5800 |
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Thanks for cleaning it up. You're more than welcome to remove my last 2 posts. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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No problem, Kyle. And thank you
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Contacts of HK's First H7N9 Case Tested Free of Virus05 December 2013HONG KONG - 17 close contacts of the Indonesian woman involved in Hong Kong's first confirmed H7N9 case have tested negative for the virus, Hong Kong's Secretary for Food& Health Ko Wing-man said on Tuesday. Mr Wing-man said that the Center for Health Protection has so far traced more than 200 people that may be associated with the case, including the 17 close contacts. The close contacts include the domestic helper's employer, family members, patients in her Tuen Mun Hospital ward, and a friend who traveled with her to Shenzhen last month. The Secretary said the helper is receiving intensive care at Queen Mary Hospital and her condition remains critical. Those not showing symptoms will be sent to the Lady MacLehose Holiday Village in Sai Kung for medical surveillance. Infection control measures are being enhanced at hospitals, live chicken stalls in markets, chicken farms, and boundary checkpoints, he said, adding the government will monitor developments. Hong Kong confirmed on Monday its first case of H7N9 bird flu as a
36-year-old Indonesian domestic helper, who has been hospitalized and is
in critical condition. The patient had contact with poultry while
traveling to Shenzhen. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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rickster58
Moderator Joined: March 09 2009 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 4875 |
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Just found this ...... says the situation is worse than reported .... can anyone verify?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpfa3ULO9uE |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Interesting. I'm still a little confused on which flu strain the close contacts have. They obviously have a flu virus. Apparently officials didn't feel it was worth mentioning.
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jdljr1
Admin Group Joined: June 05 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1621 |
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Sorry but with regards to the U-tube video and after searching the internet deeply, I am still unable to find any cofirmation of Hong Kong emergency rooms filling up. And until I do, I go on the record re. the video as strongly suspecting Hoax! Best to all, John L.
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John L
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jdljr1
Admin Group Joined: June 05 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1621 |
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New report, I emphasize NOT YET CONFIRMED. Also source is not H2H. John L.
Published on South China Morning Post (http://www.scmp.com)
Home > Hong Kong sees second case of H7N9 bird flu in a week
Hong Kong sees second case of H7N9 bird flu in a weekFriday, 06 December, 2013, 8:39pm
News›Hong Kong Agence France-Presse Hong Kong on Friday saw a new human case of the deadly H7N9 bird flu, according to a report by RTHK, the second case to come to light in less than five days. An 80-year old man has been infected and is hospitalised. “The patient is an 80-year-old man who has lived and ate chicken in mainland China,” RTHK said. The man is now in Tuen Mun Hospital. No details were given on his condition. A 36-year-old Indonesian domestic worker was confirmed to be infected on Monday. The live-in helper contracted the virus after killing and cooking a chicken in Shenzhen. Seventeen people are in isolation after coming into contact with the helper and a total of 200 people have been placed under observation as a precaution. Border health checks have been stepped up with extra health officials deployed to carry out random temperature checks at entry points to the city, which already have thermal imaging systems. Hong Kong’s health department was unable to confirm the new H7N9 case when contacted. The H7N9 virus has killed 45 of the 138 people infected on the mainland since the first human case was reported in February. One person has also been infected in Taiwan. Topics:
H7N9 avian flu More on this:
Source URL (retrieved on Dec 6th 2013, 9:08pm): http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1374711/hong-kong-sees-second-case-h7n9-week
Links:
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John L
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RegiMental
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In all this we do all have to concede that this is what should have
been expected during the first winter of a newly discover Flu virus that
has made the jump? Lets not forget that. This was going to happen
with a virus known to infect humans, no matter what, as we entered Flu
season. None of this should be surprising.
We also have to concede that if this virus is going to circulate, then really anything we do will not stop all potential cases being stopped. All the protection that HK is putting in place will curtail the rate of infection of the virus as it is now (and may remain) and we can be thankful for that. At the moment, while I am concerned, in reality, there is little need for any concern beyond where we were 3/6 months ago. As for 100's of ILI turning up and flooding emergency wards; knowing our media, it would have been all over the sites by now if it was true imo. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Whatever the case, it appears that this possible flu wave has reached Hong Kong. Lets hope they remain as transparent as possible throughout what happens. Of course no new cases from the mainland being reported so who knows what they're dealing with. One certainty is that they are definitely covering-up or under-reporting cases. Probably 10 - 20 cases for every one Hong Kong case.
Regarding the video, if you scroll down below the video to the link at the bottom of the page, it will reference the original source to the story, which is in Chinese by a local media outlet. If the story is true, that would explain why other sources haven't picked it up yet - as it's in Chinese. |
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CStackDrPH
Valued Member Joined: April 21 2013 Status: Offline Points: 2308 |
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It's important to realize that the case fatality rate (CFR) of H7N9 thus far is about 30%, or the same as smallpox. Most (but not all) in the media are idiots. Also, the flu is likely spreading in mainland China, and case reporting carefully controlled. We don't know what is happening, but if cases are making their way over to Hong Kong, they are also on their way to Viet Nam, Canada and parts unknown.
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CRS, DrPH
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RegiMental
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30% of known infections though. Like H1N1 there were people severely ill in hospital and people died, while other reported that they had had worse colds. There are likely 100's of people who have had mild to bad ILI for every one of the infected we know about. However that may not be the case - we do not know. Of course we would not know this for sure until sustained H2H occurs, which we all hope will not! |
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Medclinician2013
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【on.cc東網專訊】 Hong Kong added a suspected case of H7N9 bird flu, authorities confirmed a second positive test. It is understood that after a Tuen Mun Hospital from Shenzhen to Hong Kong for treatment of 80-year-old man, suspected H7N9, the hospital immediately for his quick test to determine infection of H7N9; their mild illness, will accept the isolation treatment. Hospital Authority and the Centre for Health Protection will be 21:15 held a press conference to explain the details. Video here.. http://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20131206/bkn-20131206192811104-1206_00822_001.html Posters please verify this test confirmation. So far the date and data appear accurate. This is the same case with a video. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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CStackDrPH
Valued Member Joined: April 21 2013 Status: Offline Points: 2308 |
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Thanks, great point!! We can never be sure when dealing with the PRC. Also, good point about H1N1, worldwide fatalities are much higher than initial estimates. My guess is that we are in for some interesting times with influenza viruses, given the wide assortment of phenotypes circulating in wild birds and domestic flocks. We haven't even touched the possibilities of a swine flu outbreak, that's always in the background.
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CRS, DrPH
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CStackDrPH
Valued Member Joined: April 21 2013 Status: Offline Points: 2308 |
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Tongue-in-cheek. We often discuss this on AFT if you notice other comments. Future pandemics are inevitable, and the public health infrastructure always does a horrible job in preparedness. I can't believe all the attention paid on H5N1 by the CDC and state & local health departments in the USA - it didn't match the real risk of that particular virus. Someday, H5N1 may yet reassort, but we will likely have waves of unforeseen viruses assault us first. H1N1 evolved out of the Mexican swine industry (I consult on the farm where it broke out, in Veracruz). Other phenotypes are evolving rapidly, and our agriculture system facilitates this, particularly in developing nations. When you feed bird poop to your swine herds (China), expect the worse. |
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CRS, DrPH
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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nothing "tonge in cheek" here, this planet needs a clear out, good pandemic....fairest and best way,
7+billion people , global climate change will see alot of displaced homeless, stateless, countryless, staving people we need to realise that by chance or other means , a pandemic will occur and this is not a bad thing for the planet,bad for the humans yes , but with fish stocks at an all time low,acidifcation of the oceans,increasing deserts, shrinking glaciers ,megga storms, droughts,fire storms on a level never seen before, when the once in a hundred year storms come every year or so .....we got a problem mankind is in for a rough ride a quick end ,ie pandemic is the fairest and best way, if we were elephants in a game park we would have been culled a long time ago, sorry if thats a bit "to real" for some people to take ,but thats how i see it..... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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rickster58
Moderator Joined: March 09 2009 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 4875 |
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Hong Kong confirms second human case of bird flu in a week
|December 6, 2013 |4:24PM ET City says it is maintaining its influenza pandemic response level at 'serious'. Hong Kong has confirmed its second human case of the sometimes-deadly H7N9 bird flu, days after the first, as the virus spreads beyond mainland China, authorities said Friday night. The victim, an 80-year-old man from the neighboring Chinese city of Shenzhen, is in stable condition in a hospital in Tuen Mun on the outskirts of Hong Kong and was set to be transferred to an isolation facility. "There is no evidence that this virus can cause sustained human-to-human transmission, so the risk of widespread or community-wide outbreak at this stage is low," said Leung Ting-hung, controller of the Center for Health Protection. But the city is maintaining its influenza pandemic response level at "serious." On Monday, Hong Kong's officials said a 36-year-old Indonesian domestic helper with a history of contact with poultry and travel to Shenzhen had been confirmed to be infected with H7N9, and had been hospitalized in critical condition. http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/12/6/hong-kong-confirmssecondcaseofbirdfluinaweek.html |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Probably don't necessarily need sustained transmission at this point. Slow moving pandemic.
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Suzi
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How did he get it? Are there infected chickens in Hong Kong?
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Newbie
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Ok I can't seem to get logged in on here - keeps coming up as guest - regardless...
Here is a more moderate link to cases & it says 80 yr old did have bird contact... http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2013/12/hong-kong-and-china-report-new-h7n9-cases |
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rickster58
Moderator Joined: March 09 2009 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 4875 |
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Hong Kong quarantines 19 people over second bird flu case
AFP - Hong Kong on Saturday quarantined an additional 19 people after the city confirmed its second human case of the deadly H7N9 bird flu, less than five days after it confirmed its first, officials said. The 19 people were close contacts of the second carrier of H7N9 in the city -- an 80-year-old Hong Kong man who had been living in the neighbouring mainland Chinese city of Shenzhen. The man developed a fever and was found to be infected with the virus on Friday after he was admitted to the city's Tuen Mun hospital on Tuesday due to underlying medical conditions. "Nineteen close contacts of the patient have been quarantined," a government statement released late Saturday said. Out of the 19 quarantined, 13 had stayed in the same cubicle with the elderly man at the city's Tuen Mun hospital, five were his family members, and one other was the taxi driver who drove him from the border to the hospital, the statement said. http://www.france24.com/en/20131207-hong-kong-quarantines-19-people-over-second-bird-flu-case |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Whether or not we see any H2H spread yet, H7N9 is obviously making the most of the colder weather and it's still very much in poultry. This is just the start of the flu season and we should expect a lot more cases (including the ones that China is undoubtedly hiding) which gives the virus many more chances to reassort. Don't forget that it first surfaced after the flu season peaked, which meant it wasn't circulating at the same time as other human strains to any great extent. Now H1N1 is coming back as the dominant flu, and it has the genetic material H7N9 needs to go fully H2H. The odds of co-infection in the same host by both viruses is much higher during flu season, and that dramatically increases the chances of reassortment to a pandemic strain.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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CStackDrPH
Valued Member Joined: April 21 2013 Status: Offline Points: 2308 |
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Good question, and one that I have tried to discuss within the public health community! How and why are elderly men getting H7N9 from live poultry, when the buying/slaughter/cooking of poultry tends to be a female-dominated practice in China? I have my suspicions.
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CRS, DrPH
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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looks like he got it from the hospital , he was in the same cubical after the maid had been in there ,
Nosocomial = an infection spread in hospitals , not good , not good at all |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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In my experience, as the young have moved into the cities to work they have taken their parents with them. The "shops" are full of elderly that have nothing better to do than spend the day haggling over prices and talking about the weather. They prefer live animals to processed and since H7N9 does not show any symptoms in infected birds, they buy, slaughter and eat these animals. I suspect that most current cases are spread through fecal transmission. I would not rule out H2H but I don't believe sustained H2H has been achieved. At least I hope it has not! |
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Buy more ammo!
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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Here's a good research paper!
http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/mers-covhcov-emc-and-protein-intrinsic-disorder-model-detects-higher-oral-fecal-transmission-component/ |
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Buy more ammo!
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coyote
Admin Group Joined: April 25 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8395 |
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No news good news?? Wondering whats going on over there!!
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Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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The mainland is probably pressuring Hong Kong to conceal info so doesn't make them look bad, is my guess. Efficient bird to human transmission, and efficient limited h2h, means there is a lot of under-reporting happening. It's a slow mover, but probably spreading. Out of the 4 cases recently reported, 2 were between family members. Assuming a family cluster is more rare than infections by birds, there is a huge number of cases not being reported.
The dead give away will be when Chan soon does a press release praising China's transparency. Then you know something is happening over there. |
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