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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Hong Kong confirms human bird flu case

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Kyle View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kyle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2013 at 3:38pm
Maybe they even need to come up with a new test for H7N9? It could be highly undetected in Asia if H2H and if there's faulty test results.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Crying Out Loud Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2013 at 3:45pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2013 at 3:49pm
Crying out loud - grow up and stop insulting other members. Kyle said nothing to justify your post.
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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2013 at 4:08pm
We can delete COL's posts faster than she can write them, but it might be advisable not to interact, argue or quote her as it creates copies within your post that we then have to find and delete. Thanks guys Thumbs Up
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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kyle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2013 at 4:11pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

We can delete COL's posts faster than she can write them, but it might be advisable not to interact, argue or quote her as it creates copies within your post that we then have to find and delete. Thanks guys Thumbs Up


Thanks for cleaning it up. You're more than welcome to remove my last 2 posts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2013 at 4:13pm
No problem, Kyle. And thank you Thumbs Up
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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2013 at 8:46pm

Contacts of HK's First H7N9 Case Tested Free of Virus

05 December 2013

HONG KONG - 17 close contacts of the Indonesian woman involved in Hong Kong's first confirmed H7N9 case have tested negative for the virus, Hong Kong's Secretary for Food& Health Ko Wing-man said on Tuesday.

Mr Wing-man said that the Center for Health Protection has so far traced more than 200 people that may be associated with the case, including the 17 close contacts.

The close contacts include the domestic helper's employer, family members, patients in her Tuen Mun Hospital ward, and a friend who traveled with her to Shenzhen last month.

The Secretary said the helper is receiving intensive care at Queen Mary Hospital and her condition remains critical. Those not showing symptoms will be sent to the Lady MacLehose Holiday Village in Sai Kung for medical surveillance.

Infection control measures are being enhanced at hospitals, live chicken stalls in markets, chicken farms, and boundary checkpoints, he said, adding the government will monitor developments.

Hong Kong confirmed on Monday its first case of H7N9 bird flu as a 36-year-old Indonesian domestic helper, who has been hospitalized and is in critical condition. The patient had contact with poultry while traveling to Shenzhen.


http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/30817/contacts-of-hks-first-h7n9-case-tested-free-of-virus

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rickster58 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 2:27am
Just found this ...... says the situation is worse than reported .... can anyone verify?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpfa3ULO9uE
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 3:57am
Interesting.  I'm still a little confused on which flu strain the close contacts have.  They obviously have a flu virus.  Apparently officials didn't feel it was worth mentioning.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jdljr1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 4:24am
     Sorry but with regards to the U-tube video and after searching the internet deeply, I am still unable to find any cofirmation of Hong Kong emergency rooms filling up.  And until I do, I go on the record re. the video as strongly suspecting Hoax!  Best to all, John L.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jdljr1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 5:10am
     New report, I emphasize NOT YET CONFIRMED.  Also source is not H2H.  John L.
 
South China Morning Post
Published on South China Morning Post (http://www.scmp.com)

Home > Hong Kong sees second case of H7N9 bird flu in a week

Hong Kong sees second case of H7N9 bird flu in a week

Friday, 06 December, 2013, 8:39pm
NewsHong Kong
Agence France-Presse

Hong Kong on Friday saw a new human case of the deadly H7N9 bird flu, according to a report by RTHK, the second case to come to light in less than five days.

An 80-year old man has been infected and is hospitalised.

“The patient is an 80-year-old man who has lived and ate chicken in mainland China,” RTHK said.

The man is now in Tuen Mun Hospital. No details were given on his condition.

A 36-year-old Indonesian domestic worker was confirmed to be infected on Monday. The live-in helper contracted the virus after killing and cooking a chicken in Shenzhen.

Seventeen people are in isolation after coming into contact with the helper and a total of 200 people have been placed under observation as a precaution.

Border health checks have been stepped up with extra health officials deployed to carry out random temperature checks at entry points to the city, which already have thermal imaging systems.

Hong Kong’s health department was unable to confirm the new H7N9 case when contacted.

The H7N9 virus has killed 45 of the 138 people infected on the mainland since the first human case was reported in February. One person has also been infected in Taiwan.

Topics: 
H7N9 avian flu

Links:
[1] http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1373030/travellers-hong-kong-tested-bird-flu-shenzhen-stalls
[2] http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1372760/clinics-visited-h7n9-bird-flu-patient-will-remain-open
[3] http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1371744/search-bird-flu-contacts-widens-after-first-h7n9-hong-kong-case
[4] http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1371483/hong-kongs-first-case-h7n9-bird-flu-virus-confirmed

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RegiMental View Drop Down
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In all this we do all have to concede that this is what should have been expected during the first winter of a newly discover Flu virus that has made the jump?  Lets not forget that.  This was going to happen with a virus known to infect humans, no matter what, as we entered Flu season.  None of this should be surprising.

We also have to concede that if this virus is going to circulate, then really anything we do will not stop all potential cases being stopped. All the protection that HK is putting in place will curtail the rate of infection of the virus as it is now (and may remain) and we can be thankful for that.  At the moment, while I am concerned, in reality, there is little need for any concern beyond where we were 3/6 months ago.

As for 100's of ILI turning up and flooding emergency wards; knowing our media, it would have been all over the sites by now if it was true imo.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 7:05am
Whatever the case, it appears that this possible flu wave has reached Hong Kong.  Lets hope they remain as transparent as possible throughout what happens.  Of course no new cases from the mainland being reported so who knows what they're dealing with.  One certainty is that they are definitely covering-up or under-reporting cases.   Probably  10 - 20 cases for every one Hong Kong case.

Regarding the video, if you scroll down below the video to the link at the bottom of the page, it will reference the original source to the story, which is in Chinese by a local media outlet.  If the story is true, that would explain why other sources haven't picked it up yet -  as it's in Chinese.   
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Originally posted by RegiMental RegiMental wrote:

In all this we do all have to concede that this is what should have been expected during the first winter of a newly discover Flu virus that has made the jump?  Lets not forget that.  This was going to happen with a virus known to infect humans, no matter what, as we entered Flu season.  None of this should be surprising.

We also have to concede that if this virus is going to circulate, then really anything we do will not stop all potential cases being stopped. All the protection that HK is putting in place will curtail the rate of infection of the virus as it is now (and may remain) and we can be thankful for that.  At the moment, while I am concerned, in reality, there is little need for any concern beyond where we were 3/6 months ago.

As for 100's of ILI turning up and flooding emergency wards; knowing our media, it would have been all over the sites by now if it was true imo.

It's important to realize that the case fatality rate (CFR) of H7N9 thus far is about 30%, or the same as smallpox.  

Most (but not all) in the media are idiots.  Also, the flu is likely spreading in mainland China, and case reporting carefully controlled.  We don't know what is happening, but if cases are making their way over to Hong Kong, they are also on their way to Viet Nam, Canada and parts unknown.  
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Originally posted by CStackDrPH CStackDrPH wrote:

It's important to realize that the case fatality rate (CFR) of H7N9 thus far is about 30%, or the same as smallpox.  



30% of known infections though. 

Like H1N1 there were people severely ill in hospital and people died, while other reported that they had had worse colds.  There are likely 100's of people who have had mild to bad ILI for every one of the infected we know about.  However that may not be the case - we do not know.

Of course we would not know this for sure until sustained H2H occurs, which we all hope will not!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician2013 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 9:26am

【on.cc東網專訊】 Hong Kong added a suspected case of H7N9 bird flu, authorities confirmed a second positive test. It is understood that after a Tuen Mun Hospital from Shenzhen to Hong Kong for treatment of 80-year-old man, suspected H7N9, the hospital immediately for his quick test to determine infection of H7N9; their mild illness, will accept the isolation treatment. Hospital Authority and the Centre for Health Protection will be 21:15 held a press conference to explain the details.

Video here..
http://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20131206/bkn-20131206192811104-1206_00822_001.html


Posters please verify this test confirmation. So far the date and data appear accurate. This is the same case with a video.

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Originally posted by RegiMental RegiMental wrote:

Originally posted by CStackDrPH CStackDrPH wrote:

It's important to realize that the case fatality rate (CFR) of H7N9 thus far is about 30%, or the same as smallpox.  



30% of known infections though. 

Like H1N1 there were people severely ill in hospital and people died, while other reported that they had had worse colds.  There are likely 100's of people who have had mild to bad ILI for every one of the infected we know about.  However that may not be the case - we do not know.

Of course we would not know this for sure until sustained H2H occurs, which we all hope will not!

Thanks, great point!!  We can never be sure when dealing with the PRC.  

Also, good point about H1N1, worldwide fatalities are much higher than initial estimates.  My guess is that we are in for some interesting times with influenza viruses, given the wide assortment of phenotypes circulating in wild birds and domestic flocks.   We haven't even touched the possibilities of a swine flu outbreak, that's always in the background.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CStackDrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 11:15am
Originally posted by RegiMental RegiMental wrote:

Originally posted by CStackDrPH CStackDrPH wrote:

...personally, I think the world could use a good pandemic!   Just thinkin' out loud....

Wow, thought I was coming to a serious forum to discuss this.  Seems that you cannot escape stupid comments anywhere. 

Tongue-in-cheek.  We often discuss this on AFT if you notice other comments.  

Future pandemics are inevitable, and the public health infrastructure always does a horrible job in preparedness.  I can't believe all the attention paid on H5N1 by the CDC and state & local health departments in the USA - it didn't match the real risk of that particular virus.  

Someday, H5N1 may yet reassort, but we will likely have waves of unforeseen viruses assault us first.  H1N1 evolved out of the Mexican swine industry (I consult on the farm where it broke out, in Veracruz).  Other phenotypes are evolving rapidly, and our agriculture system facilitates this, particularly in developing nations.  When you feed bird poop to your swine herds (China), expect the worse.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 1:14pm
nothing "tonge in cheek" here, this planet needs a clear out,  good pandemic....fairest and best way,

7+billion people ,

 global climate change will see alot of displaced homeless, stateless, countryless, staving  people

we need to realise that  by chance or other means ,

a pandemic will occur and this is not a bad thing for the planet,bad for the humans yes ,

but with fish stocks at an all time low,acidifcation of the oceans,increasing deserts, shrinking  glaciers

,megga storms, droughts,fire storms on a level never seen before,

when the once in a hundred year storms come every year or so .....we got a problem

mankind is in for a rough ride

a quick end ,ie pandemic  is the fairest and best way,

if we were elephants in a game park we would have been culled a long time ago,

sorry if thats a bit "to real" for some people to take ,but thats how i see it.....


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rickster58 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 4:42pm
Hong Kong confirms second human case of bird flu in a week

|December 6, 2013 |4:24PM ET


City says it is maintaining its influenza pandemic response level at 'serious'.

Hong Kong has confirmed its second human case of the sometimes-deadly H7N9 bird flu, days after the first, as the virus spreads beyond mainland China, authorities said Friday night.

The victim, an 80-year-old man from the neighboring Chinese city of Shenzhen, is in stable condition in a hospital in Tuen Mun on the outskirts of Hong Kong and was set to be transferred to an isolation facility.

"There is no evidence that this virus can cause sustained human-to-human transmission, so the risk of widespread or community-wide outbreak at this stage is low," said Leung Ting-hung, controller of the Center for Health Protection. But the city is maintaining its influenza pandemic response level at "serious."

On Monday, Hong Kong's officials said a 36-year-old Indonesian domestic helper with a history of contact with poultry and travel to Shenzhen had been confirmed to be infected with H7N9, and had been hospitalized in critical condition.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/12/6/hong-kong-confirmssecondcaseofbirdfluinaweek.html
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 7:21pm
Probably don't necessarily need sustained transmission at this point.  Slow moving pandemic. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Suzi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 8:12pm
How did he get it? Are there infected chickens in Hong Kong?
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Ok I can't seem to get logged in on here - keeps coming up as guest - regardless...
Here is a more moderate link to cases & it says 80 yr old did have bird contact...

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2013/12/hong-kong-and-china-report-new-h7n9-cases
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Hong Kong quarantines 19 people over second bird flu case



AFP - Hong Kong on Saturday quarantined an additional 19 people after the city confirmed its second human case of the deadly H7N9 bird flu, less than five days after it confirmed its first, officials said.

The 19 people were close contacts of the second carrier of H7N9 in the city -- an 80-year-old Hong Kong man who had been living in the neighbouring mainland Chinese city of Shenzhen.

The man developed a fever and was found to be infected with the virus on Friday after he was admitted to the city's Tuen Mun hospital on Tuesday due to underlying medical conditions.

"Nineteen close contacts of the patient have been quarantined," a government statement released late Saturday said.

Out of the 19 quarantined, 13 had stayed in the same cubicle with the elderly man at the city's Tuen Mun hospital, five were his family members, and one other was the taxi driver who drove him from the border to the hospital, the statement said.


http://www.france24.com/en/20131207-hong-kong-quarantines-19-people-over-second-bird-flu-case
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2013 at 12:02pm
Whether or not we see any H2H spread yet, H7N9 is obviously making the most of the colder weather and it's still very much in poultry. This is just the start of the flu season and we should expect a lot more cases (including the ones that China is undoubtedly hiding) which gives the virus many more chances to reassort. Don't forget that it first surfaced after the flu season peaked, which meant it wasn't circulating at the same time as other human strains to any great extent. Now H1N1 is coming back as the dominant flu, and it has the genetic material H7N9 needs to go fully H2H. The odds of co-infection in the same host by both viruses is much higher during flu season, and that dramatically increases the chances of reassortment to a pandemic strain.
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Originally posted by Suzi Suzi wrote:

How did he get it? Are there infected chickens in Hong Kong?

Good question, and one that I have tried to discuss within the public health community! 

How and why are elderly men getting H7N9 from live poultry, when the buying/slaughter/cooking of poultry tends to be a female-dominated practice in China?  

I have my suspicions.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2013 at 5:16pm
looks like he got it from the hospital , he was in the same cubical after the maid had been in there ,

Nosocomial = an infection spread in hospitals , not good , not good at all
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 08 2013 at 7:26pm
Originally posted by CStackDrPH CStackDrPH wrote:

Originally posted by Suzi Suzi wrote:

How did he get it? Are there infected chickens in Hong Kong?


Good question, and one that I have tried to discuss within the public health community! 

How and why are elderly men getting H7N9 from live poultry, when the buying/slaughter/cooking of poultry tends to be a female-dominated practice in China?  

I have my suspicions.  


In my experience, as the young have moved into the cities to work they have taken their parents with them. The "shops" are full of elderly that have nothing better to do than spend the day haggling over prices and talking about the weather. They prefer live animals to processed and since H7N9 does not show any symptoms in infected birds, they buy, slaughter and eat these animals. I suspect that most current cases are spread through fecal transmission. I would not rule out H2H but I don't believe sustained H2H has been achieved. At least I hope it has not!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 08 2013 at 7:32pm
Here's a good research paper!

http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/mers-covhcov-emc-and-protein-intrinsic-disorder-model-detects-higher-oral-fecal-transmission-component/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2013 at 9:35am
No news good news?? Wondering whats going on over there!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2013 at 10:04am
The mainland is probably pressuring Hong Kong to conceal info so doesn't make them look bad, is my guess.  Efficient bird to human transmission, and efficient limited h2h, means there is a lot of under-reporting happening.   It's a slow mover, but probably spreading. Out of the 4 cases recently reported, 2 were between family members.  Assuming a family cluster is more rare than infections by birds, there is a huge number of cases not being reported.

The dead give away will be when Chan soon does a press release praising China's transparency.  Then you know something is happening over there.
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