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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

INDIA: Mysteria Fever 3,000 - 3,500 +

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fafhrd View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 28 2006 at 10:17pm
I had a little bird,
his name was Enza;
I opened the window,
and influenza.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Falcon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2006 at 10:26pm

ok........  900 people infected in two days!!!!?????  in other news it not bf three weeks later

 

oh wait it was bf

 

edit: I just read up on malaryia, I'm wondering if this is what sparks it, because an outbreak can cause 1 million deaths maybe more

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2006 at 10:32pm
ummm why the door-to-door surveillance? Wouldn't they normally wait for patients to come to them - unless they suspected somthing like bf?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fafhrd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2006 at 10:38pm
Good point.   The whole thing stinks.  Particularly the rapidity of their testing.  H5N1 testing always seems to take awhile and is riddled with false positives and negatives.  I really hope they got this right.
I had a little bird,
his name was Enza;
I opened the window,
and influenza.
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fafhrd View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fafhrd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2006 at 11:06pm
Not to mention that malaria is caused by protozoans not an airborne virus.  So either their test results are wrong(or it's incidental and not the root cause) or their theory is.  
I had a little bird,
his name was Enza;
I opened the window,
and influenza.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mightymouse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2006 at 11:13pm
900 in two days - What will it be in three? six? nine? - Maybe they'll outsource it to us by next week.  Fair Trade.
Nothing matters - Therefore everything matters
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Left Field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 6:14am
This one scares me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 7:44am

They didn't say HOW SICK these people are.

It wouldn't be unusual for people to test positive for malaria in the area, it's endemic.  That in no way means that malaria is causing the illness.

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http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1433399.cms

ROURKELA: About 3,000 people in Orissa's steel town of Rourkela have come down with a mysterious viral fever that has health officials completely baffled.

The fever was first reported in a small group at a slum cluster in Panposh on the outskirts of Rourkela, famous for its steel plant, on Monday. Since then, it has rapidly spread to other parts of the town.

The high fever is accompanied by vomiting, headache and acute colic pain, said a senior district health official.

Most of the patients have been admitted to government and private hospitals.

Results of blood tests on about 300 patients indicate that it could be an airborne virus, though a few were also found to be suffering from malaria, the official said.

Specialists from the Veer Surendra Sai medical college hospital at Burla have rushed to Rourkela and are carrying out further tests, he added.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 8:09am
SophiaZoe et al,

Malaria, Yellow Fever, Dengue, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, Pneumonia and a host of other illnesses have taken the blame for Bird Flu all around the globe now. If they are in denial they will find something to blame it on when humans get sick, just like they blame Newcastles, the rain, the temperature, colera and anything else for when birds and animals bet sick.

I no longer try to figure out which illness could be H5N1 and which ones are not.  The foolish attempts to coverup are depressing, knowing that they could have produced a vaccine against Sichuan Sheet months ago but have not done so. 

The Ukraine could have had their entire population inoculated against SS before it hit the Ukraine. They have had thousands of "pneumonia deaths" this winter. Yet, they could have seen the deaths coming as they marched across Siberia towards the Ukraine.

Moldavia just west of the Ukraine has had hundreds of deaths from "pneumonia."   Other countries are hiding their statistics.

It is a tossup as to which country (India or China) has had the most fatalities, but my guess is that it is in the thousands in each country.

For those who do not know, China had an official nationwide certificate of death report that did not have Bird Flu as a listed cause of death.  Chinese doctors for the past few years were forced to list a BF death as one of many other causes.  Only recently have they allowed doctors to write in Bird Flu.

India is still calling it Anything But Bird Flu.  Really, they should just have "ABBF" listed on their certificate of death forms so as to avoid the trouble of skewing all the other death statistics. In Uttar Preadesh province alone, they had to triple the number of reports due to Japanese Encephalitis over previous years averages.  Foolishness!  Thousands upon thousands of meningitis deaths also are suspect.  They started in February of last year and are continuing now.  Is it really meningitis when they are bleeding from their mouths and noses prior to death? Must be one hell of a headache.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 8:17am

Yeah Joe, I hear ya.  But you know, this feels different.

Yesterday we had 900 cases.  Today we have 3,000. 

Could be an air born virus according one offical quoted.  Most of the ABBF stuff is not quoted to be an air born virus.

We'll just have to keep an eye on it.

Thanks for helping us keep the issues in order.  Your brain is much more adept at juggling it all.

SZ

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Spoon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 9:42am
Okay, Albert dissapeared... is anyone else as concerned about this as I am?  Are we looking at Ground Zero?
It's not so much the apocalypse... but the credit card bills ;-)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 9:51am
Albert is in the TIKI room passes out from last night.
Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 9:55am
i'm going to join him
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fafhrd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 10:01am
In case you missed it:

Originally posted by original article original article wrote:


Forty one of the affected people had been admitted to the Rourkela government hospital since yesterday. The rest were treated as outdoor patients.


Originally posted by SZ's article SZ's article wrote:


Most of the patients have been admitted to government and private hospitals.


Reporter error or major development?
I had a little bird,
his name was Enza;
I opened the window,
and influenza.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 10:13am

Originally posted by Spoon Spoon wrote:

Are we looking at Ground Zero?

Okay, that's enough.  Stop it. Just Stop it. Stop it. Stop. Ok? Stop it.

(apologizes to The Family Guy)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deej Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 10:33am
lets see, bf in area, large mass of people ill, 1st test negative, symtoms seem to fit, i think we are in trouble
dee
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fafhrd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 10:37am
Deej, that brings up a point I've been mulling over.  These Orissa symptoms, particularly the vomiting, has that been seen in any previous h5 outbreaks?   
I had a little bird,
his name was Enza;
I opened the window,
and influenza.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 10:37am
Originally posted by Deej Deej wrote:

lets see, bf in area, large mass of people ill, 1st test negative, symtoms seem to fit, i think we are in trouble


Gosh, you post that like you have seen it all before!!!!

Are you turning into a cynic like me?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deej Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 10:38am
i learn from the best
dee
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 10:42am

Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deej Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 10:44am
symptoms of bf.. cough, fever pneumonia, respiratory distress- failure , life threatening complications- ( what they are ? ) but i am sure i have read of vomiting- (blood)
dee
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 10:53am
Originally posted by Deej Deej wrote:

i learn from the best


The ironic thing is that I would have passed over the Columbian Bird Flu outbreak and accepted their final admission that they had relatively mild H9N2 in their country just like most of the world did, BUT for seeing the stupidity of the denials in other countries.

By that time, I had seen enough ABBF to be a cynic.  When I read the initial reports from Columbia last year, I KNEW it had to be more than just a mild bird flu and announced on the Current Events board that if it was H5, we would see further outbreaks in adjoining countries.  Well, we did, and progressively we have seen outbreaks in a radius that seemed to expand about ten miles a day on average.

What we need to see now are more reports from the United States. 

I've seen enough from Argentina and Brazil for me to be convinced that they have Sichuan Sheet in their cattle, and birds. (Newcastles and Foot & Mouth be damned!)

It is all over the world.  All we need now is honesty from governments and collective action.  This denial phase we are going through is thwarting collective action and that will probably cost the lives of millions.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 10:53am

LINK

H5N1 in Humans: Clinical and Treatment Considerations

Clinical Features

The incubation period for most patients with H5N1 influenza is 2 to 4 days; however, the range appears to be as long as 8 days. A recent report summarized the clinical presentations for different groups of patients in Asia; the information is presented in the table below (see References: WHO Writing Committee of the WHO Consultation on Human Influenza A/H5).

Clinical Presentation for Different Groups of Patients in Asia

Hong Kong (N=18)

Thailand, 2004 (N=17)

Vietnam, 2004 (N=10)

Ho Chi Minh City, 2005 (N=10)

Cambodia, 2005 (N=4)

Outcome or Measure

No./Total No. (%)

No./Total No. (%)

No./Total No. (%)

No./Total No. (%)

No./Total No. (%)

Fever (>38:C)

17/18 (94)

17/17 (100)

10/10 (100)

10/10 (100)

4/4 (100)

Headache

4/18 (22)

NS

NS

1/10 (10)

4/4 (100)

Myalgia

2/18 (11)

9/17 (53)

0

2/10 (20)

NS

Diarrhea

3/18 (17)

7/17 (41)

7/10 (70)

NS

2/4 (50)

Abdominal pain

3/18 (17)

4/17 (24)

NS

NS

2/4 (50)

Vomiting

6/18 (33)

4/17 (24)

NS

1/10 (10)

0

Cough

12/18 (67)

16/17 (94)

10/10 (70)

10/10 (100)

4/4 (100)

Sputum

NS

13/17 (76)

5/10 (50)

3/10 (30)

NS

Sore throat

4/12 (33)

12/17 (71)

0

0

<(25)

Rhinorrhea

7/12 (58)

9/17 (53)

0

0

NS

Shortness of breath

1/18 (6)

13/17 (76)

10/10 (100)

10/10 (100)

NS

Pulmonary infiltrates

11/18 (61)

17/17 (100)

10/10 (100)

10/10 (100)

4/4 (100)

Lymphopenia

11/18 (61)

7/12 (58)

NS

8/10 (80)

= (50)

Thrombocytopenia

NS

4/12 (33)

NS

8/10 (80)

= (50)

Increased aminotransferase levels

11/18 (61)

8/12 (67)

5/6 (83)

7/10 (70)

NS

Development of respiratory failure (usually with ARDS)*

8/19 (44)

13/17 (76)

9/10 (90)

7/10 (70)

4/4 (100)

Abbreviations: ARDS: Acute respiratory distress syndrome; NS: Not stated.

*High levels of inflammatory mediators may contribute to ARDS and multiorgan failure.

Data were obtained from a recent WHO report and are derived primarily from several separate studies (see References: WHO Writing Committee of the WHO Consultation on Human Influenza A/H5; Chan 2002; Chotpitayasunondh 2004, Tran 2004, Yuen 1998).

Overall, the case-fatality rate for H5N1 influenza is about 50%. The high case-fatality rate suggests that the pathogenicity of H5N1 may be similar to the 1918 H1N1 pandemic strain. Researchers have hypothesized that cytokine storm (ie, overproduction of cytokines) may have played an important role in the pathogenesis of the 1918 pandemic strain. A laboratory-based study involving H5N1 strains taken from ill humans in Asia (during 1997 and 2004) and an ordinary current H1N1 strain (circulating in Asia in 1998) found that all the H5N1 viruses caused human alveolar cells and bronchial epithelial cells to secrete significantly higher levels of various cytokines and chemokines than did the ordinary virus (see References: Chan 2005). These findings support the role of cytokine storm in the pathogenesis of H5N1, although further work is needed to clarify the clinical implications of these findings.

Some patients have presented with primarily gastrointestinal symptoms. In addition, a recent case report of a 4-year-old Vietnamese child with H5N1 avian influenza who presented in 2004 with encephalitis demonstrated the following features (see References: De Jong 2005: Fatal avian influenza A (H5N1) in a child presenting with diarrhea followed by coma):

  • The child presented with a 2-day history of fever, headache, vomiting, and severe diarrhea (approximately 10 episodes per day). The stools were watery without blood or mucus.
  • Laboratory tests on admission were unremarkable and chest x-ray was normal.
  • On the third day following initial presentation, the child had a generalized convulsion and became comatose. He developed respiratory failure and died on the fifth day after initial presentation. Acute encephalitis of unknown origin was reported as the cause of death; no autopsy was performed.
  • H5N1 influenza A virus was isolated from cerebrospinal fluid, fecal, throat, and serum specimens.
  • The patient's 9-year-old sister had died 2 weeks earlier from a similar clinical syndrome.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 10:58am
Yes I have read of vomiting blood
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 11:00am
Some sort of viral tsunami is building.  I hope the symptoms are mild.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RotroShaggy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 11:06am
I don't know how accurate it is or where she got her information, but a member of another forum posted a few minutes ago she was receiving information that indicated some sort of norovirus and that the infected persons are not presenting any respiratory symptoms.  That is good news. 
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Originally posted by RotroShaggy RotroShaggy wrote:

I don't know how accurate it is or where she got her
information, but a member of another forum posted a few minutes ago she
was receiving information that indicated some sort of norovirus and that the
infected persons are not presenting any respiratory symptoms.  That is good
news. 



Only if a lab confirms that result.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deej Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 11:25am
what is acute colic pain?
dee
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RotroShaggy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 11:32am
Point well taken, Rick.  I am trying to keep an eye on Wiki for more information.  She has already been asked to support her post with an article or link.  We'll see what develops.  Stay tuned. . . .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 11:37am

Originally posted by RotroShaggy RotroShaggy wrote:

ago she was receiving information that indicated some sort of norovirus

A Norovirus would fit the bill.  VERY contagious, and by touch.  That's the sort of thing that makes thousands sick at a time on cruise ships.

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Smaug Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 11:37am
The trouble with India is that it could be any one of a number of diseases.  Just hope that it isn't H2H BF.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 11:46am
I'll just bet we know it's negative.  Then later they'll mention it was BF under their breath
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Spoon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 11:51am
Can someone explain to me why Albert's posts keep disappearing?
It's not so much the apocalypse... but the credit card bills ;-)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 11:54am

Maybe because Albert keeps deleting them.

I am NOT. 

Non-censorship queen here.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fafhrd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 11:54am
Well you see, he committed trans-temporal matricide(or he went back in time and killed his mother prior to his birth) ergo his is gradually fading from existence.  So yes, what was I talking about?
I had a little bird,
his name was Enza;
I opened the window,
and influenza.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elizabeth Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 11:57am

Originally posted by Deej Deej wrote:

what is acute colic pain?

 

Stomach cramps

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 11:58am

Put down the Koolaid and take a deep breath.

A breaking story is full of Reporter Fiction.

Lets look for threads of consistancy and wait until Geraldo can interview the Grand Poobah of the village.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 12:02pm
It's my fault.   I fixed the problem.    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 12:14pm
re norovirus:  is this something like what you are looking for?

Norovirus is culprit in area's stomach bug outbreak

State Department of Health confirms cases tested positive for it.
By Ann Wlazelek
Of The Morning Call

 

The super contagious stomach bug that prompted Lehigh Valley Hospital-Allentown and Reading Hospital and Medical Center to close some patient units to visitors and new admissions is what experts suspected: norovirus.

The Pennsylvania Department of Health and Mayo Clinic on Friday confirmed that specimens from patients at those hospitals tested positive for norovirus, a gastrointestinal virus that causes vomiting and diarrhea.

 

Norovirus, also called the ''winter vomiting disease'' or cruise ship virus, generally lasts two or three days. Symptoms can include nausea, stomach cramping, low-grade fever, chills, headache, muscle aches and a general sense of tiredness. The illness often begins suddenly, and the infected person may feel very sick.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-b3_5norovirusfeb25,0,344 7162.story


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote elbows Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 12:20pm
Yeah norovirus, also known as norwalk-like virus, is very common. We had outbreaks here in the UK this winter, just the other month it was reported in my area and picked up on in this forum. It was going round at the same time as Influenza B, lots of schools closed, I knew people at work who had it (& their children had it). Not nice, but happily not bird flu.

I hope this outbreak in India is norovirus, but I have no idea whether it is, the symptoms certainly fit and it can infect lots of people if they are sharing the same space.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 12:24pm

Low Grade Fever.

Our India outbreak has High Grade Fever.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chuck-91 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 12:27pm
SZ Your a little quick to defend yourself on the subject of Alberts posts disappearing. No one accused you that I saw?  Forsooth, me thinks the lady doth protest to loudly!
Those who will not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
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Joined: February 25 2006
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fafhrd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 12:33pm
From wikipedia on norovirus
Quote In developing countries the percentage of individuals who have developed immunity is very high at an early age. In the U.S. the percentage increases gradually with age, reaching 50% in the population over 18 years of age. Immunity, however, is not permanent and reinfection can occur. There is some evidence that blood types B and AB confer partial protection against symptomatic infection.

Also
Quote Specific diagnosis of norovirus is routinely made by broadly-reactive conventional RT-PCR assays which are recently more and more replaced by realtime RT-PCR assays which give results within a few hours.


I had a little bird,
his name was Enza;
I opened the window,
and influenza.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2006 at 12:33pm

Nope.... Spoon has seen disappearing posts previously.  I just wanted him to know that I didn't delete Albert's post.

For the record... I have deleted TWO posts on this forum neither of which were Albert's.

BTW: You can think I protest too much all you want....it was a private joke split two ways... one side directed at Albert ie: my non-censorship and Spoon... disappearing posts that make him think he's having a flash back.

Now, back to India.....

Addendum: actually I was mistaken... it was MM that might have been having the flashback... sorry Spoon if I confused you.

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