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India variant cases exploding |
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Dutch Josh 
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95227 |
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 Topic: India variant cases explodingPosted: May 18 2021 at 2:18am |
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DJ-Since the total number of cases are going down-and there has been a limited number of vaccinations-in most countries less then 50% fully vaccinated-some countries are "opening up" .... There are lots of reports vaccines may protect somewhat against severe illness-so far-from the India variant. It looks like the vaccines-in general-may not stop getting infected/spreading this variant... [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ ;(Go to G/452R.V3(B1.617+); Country Submission Count
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95227 |
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Posted: May 18 2021 at 2:27am |
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[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Statistics has a full list-sequencing takes 10/14 days...and at best 5% of cases get sequencing in most countries...so yes the total number of Covid cases are going down but we were already dealing with a sharp increase of India-variants. Reopenings are making matters much worse ! This variant most likely will spread via younger age groups-not vaccinated. Testing is going down because of "media/politics/experts" almost claiming the "pandemic is over"...because hospital/ICU cases are going down...and due to less testing it looks like cases are going down... In many countries other variants also are increasing-the P1 variant is a major problem in Latin America (several of those countries now also have the India variant). In Africa the SA variant is still spreading-with also the India variant showing up... Mixing of variants in a group of host with limited vaccination=new variants becoming more vaccine escape variants... DJ-I realy do not understand the reopening/stop mask insanity... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95227 |
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Posted: May 18 2021 at 3:37am |
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From latest news [url]https://www.avianflutalk.com/topic43913_post306655.html#306655[/url] or https://www.avianflutalk.com/topic43913_post306655.html#306655 (latest activity); [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ DJ-selected variant=G/452R.V3(B1.617+) At least has some info on the spread of the variant and increase in % of all cases per region...Latest available info in the graph is may 3...latest reported case is from may 7...So 1 week old... May 14 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Statistics has 61 countries with 4,678 cases (under)reported... In the latest statistics (based on Gisaid may 14) top 10 of cases; may 8=() *may 16 ** may 17 (64 countries) 1 India 1,876 cases (1,494) *2,105 **2,186 2 UK 1,587 (930) *2,237 **3,332 3 USA 485 (333) *705 **758 4 Singapore 156 (155) *156 **156 5 Australia 84 (79) *87 **99 6 Canada 5 (77 in other sources) (77 may 8) *94 **363 7 Germany 103 (59) *112 **230 8 Fiji 42 (other sources) (42) *42 **42 9 Israel 41 ( " ) (41) *41 **41 10 Denmark 39 (39) *66 **66 DJ-In this list Belgium "just" has 24 cases-from a.o. Brussels Times news I come over 40 cases... (51 in list of may 16) Since the info on todays list is at least a week old and growth may be 3 times higher then SA variant, sequencing is "very limited", testing is decreasing...the real numbers must be much higher...Also often the may 8 number did not change on may 14...a reporting/sequencing problem ? Updating once a week ? We did see how fast cases exploded in India, Nepal, Malaysia, Sri Lanka (only India in this top 10....Nepal and Sri Lanka only each have 1 case in the may 14 statistics, Nepal did go to 9 may 17 list. Malaysia has 2 cases...(numbers same may 16). And "yes" we have vaccinations...but just as a reminder even in the UK less then 50% did get two vaccinations... May 16 list ; may 17 did not yet change Netherlands 26 Italy 52 Sweden 13 Spain 22 Finland 12 Indonesia 10 South Africa 12 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95227 |
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Posted: May 18 2021 at 3:53am |
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DJ-In Dutch news; two appartment buildings in Velbert NRW-Germany in lockdown-19 cases of India-variant, 200 people being tested... In Belgium the number of India-variants grew to 77-with somme vaccine immunity escape reported. [url]https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57150871[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57150871 ; A Covid variant first identified in India and spreading in parts of the UK, has threatened to derail Britain's plans for a return to normality. In allowing the latest lockdown easing, the government stands accused of recklessness. So why has it taken the risk? Last Thursday 39 of the country's leading scientists and health experts gathered - via video conference - to discuss the escalating situation. At the Sage meeting they were presented with a paper by the government's modelling committee, that made alarming reading. There was, the document said, a "realistic possibility" that the Indian variant was 50% more transmissible than the UK variant which had been responsible for the deadly winter wave. If this was the case, the modellers said, there was the potential for a summer wave that would be even worse. It could not have been more alarming. One of those present, Sir Jeremy Farrar, said they faced the "hardest policy decision" of the pandemic - but a reasonable one considering the context. Huge uncertainty over Indian variantDig beneath the headlines and a more complex picture emerges than the 50% figure which grabbed headlines. The term "realistic possibility" is actually a defined phrase, one of several on a sliding scale used by these committees. It means there is basically a 50:50 chance the modellers are right about the variant being as much as 50% more infectious. Along with the modelling presented on Thursday, several other pieces of evidence were looked at. Public Health England (PHE) had been gathering data on what had been happening on the ground as part of the test-and-trace programme. It cast doubt on the 50% figure. A number of things did not add up to its analysts. Some of the data on "secondary attack rates" - the chances of an infected individual passing the virus on to someone - suggested the variant may be much less infectious than feared. And it did not seem to be behaving in the same way in every region. A significant cluster has been found in London, but that had not risen at the same speed as it had in Bolton. - The sheer volume of imported cases from travellers returning from India could - it was argued - have caused a spike, and explain a big chunk of what appeared to be the extra infectiousness. One of the problems in nailing how infectious a variant is, is the lag between getting a positive diagnosis from a patient and establishing which variant of the virus caused it. It takes about a week. So the picture we are looking at is, in fact, out of date. Another sign being analysed is the latest raw infection rates in hotspot areas - before samples are sequenced. There are now some tentative signs the rapid rises may have started slowing, offering support to the hope the 50% extra transmissibility figure is too high. - Naturally with so much unknown, there was much debate both at Sage and in other meetings that took place on Friday, about how to respond. The nuclear option of delaying indoor mixing, due to re-start on 17 May, was discussed. Doing so could buy more time to study the emerging data on the Indian variant, while allowing for more vaccine rollout. But the government was already committed - it had been confirmed last Monday - and so it was ruled out, although in Scotland extra restrictions have stayed in place in Glasgow and Moray. "It was agonising. There was just not enough evidence there to justify the move," said one of the people close to the decision-making. "But keeping restrictions comes with a cost too." DJ There are some indications the India variant may be even MORE infectious-explosion of cases may NOT be linked to mass gatherings...(because maybe some findings could show that a lot of people/cases can NOT be linked to those events !) Precaution should-by now-be #1-not "wishfull thinking-politics"...Do you need proof of high speed spread of the India-variant ? We may see the outcome this month ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95227 |
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Posted: May 18 2021 at 7:12am |
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[url]https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/05/07/994710459/is-the-variant-from-india-the-most-contagious-coronavirus-mutant-on-the-planet?t=1621346104877[/url] or https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/05/07/994710459/is-the-variant-from-india-the-most-contagious-coronavirus-mutant-on-the-planet?t=1621346104877 ; Scientists in the U.K. now say that one of the variants from India, known as B.1.617.2, is highly contagious and likely more transmissible than the variant from the U.K., B.1.1.7. "Transmission of this variant is currently faster than that of the B.1.1.7 variant," the U.K.'s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies wrote Friday in a document. "It is a realistic possibility that it is as much as 50% more transmissible." If that's correct, it would mean B.1.617.2 is 225% more transmissible than the original SARS-CoV-2 strains, and it would make B.1.617.2 the most contagious one on the planet. DJ-225% more transmissible than the original SARS-Cov-2 !!!!! A reminder-some area's did not see many infections=limited natural immunity + low vaccinations=if this India variant gets into such an area (like maybe Finland, Tailand, Taiwan...) cases may go explosive (not to put in Chris Martenson's/Peak Prosperity words "case-case-cluster-cluster-boom" but maybe much shorter-"case-cluster-boom"-in graphs not going up like " / " but more like " l "). Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist at the KU Leuven university in Belgium, has been using computer models to estimate how fast B.1.617 is spreading in India. He finds a similar trend as the U.K. scientists. "Based on this data, the new variant from India has a very big transmission or growth advantage," even over B.1.1.7, he says. "It's kind of like the U.K. variant squared." This advantage, Wenseleers believes, is fueling the massive outbreak in India, on top of other contributing factors, such as recent mass gatherings, election rallies and relaxing of precautions. Over the winter, the situation in India looked great. COVID-19 case numbers were flat and even dropping. Then in the middle of February and early March, the situation quickly shifted. The virus surged explosively. Now India is battling a horrific second wave of COVID-19, reporting about 400,000 cases and more than 3,500 deaths every day. At the same time, the new variant that emerged in India, known as B.1.617, began to dominate the outbreak in several Indian states. This variant has more than a dozen mutations, including several known to enhance transmissibility and help the virus evade the immune system. India Is Counting Thousands Of Daily COVID Deaths. How Many Is It Missing?DJ Since sequencing is taking that much time-doubling time for India variant may be <1 week-an outbreak may have "an explosive cluster" look ( the "boom" ). There is discussion on how explosive this variant could be. Since the consequences of the "worst case scenario" would be no room for reopening politics choose "the best scenario" mostly based on wishfull thinking... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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