Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
India variant outbreak in the UK |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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Posted: May 14 2021 at 3:04am |
[url]https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57109660[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57109660 ; Second vaccine doses could be brought forward and local restrictions introduced to help tackle the Indian variant in the worst-affected areas, the UK government has said. Minister Nadhim Zahawi said steps could also include vaccinating younger people in multi-generational households. Meanwhile, a top scientist has warned lifting restrictions on 21 June is in doubt because of the Indian variant. Cases in the UK have more than doubled to 1,313, Public Health England said. The figures released on Thursday have risen from 520 cases recorded by PHE up to 5 May. However, Prof Paul Hunter, who sits on a number of Covid advisory committees for the World Health Organization, said current figures were around two weeks out of date and would now be higher. He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the Indian variant was now in most regions of the UK, with the possible exception of Yorkshire and Humber and north-east England. DJ The UK government is still pushing for more reopenings per may 17 while India variants are now all over the UK and-based on statistics-with sequencing taking several days-most likely must be in several thousends of cases... See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617 ; Emerging research suggests the variant may be more transmissible than previously evolved ones.[21] Whether the effectiveness of currently-deployed vaccines is affected remains under investigation.[22][23][24] Surveillance data from the Indian government's Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) shows that around 32% of patients, both hospitalised and outside hospitals, were aged below 30 in the second wave compared to 31% during the first wave. Among people aged 30-40, the 20-39 bracket increased to 25.5% from 23.7% earlier. The data also showed a higher proportion of asymptomatic patients were admitted during the second wave, with more complaints of breathlessness.[25] On 7 May 2021, British scientists at Public Health England redesignated one of the three sublineages, B.1.617.2, as "variant of concern" (VOC-21APR-02),[26] after they flagged evidence in May 2021 that it spreads more quickly than the original version of the virus. Another reason was that they identified 48 clusters of B.1.617.2, some of which revealed a degree of community transmission DJ Can we please stop repeating wrong choices...or what is the agenda ? Do governments work for Big Pharma mafia and spread the virus ? Pushing zillions of tax payers money to Big Pharma shareholders... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/915553-uk-growing-concerns-over-the-b-1-617-2-variant-s-impact-on-reopening-society[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/915553-uk-growing-concerns-over-the-b-1-617-2-variant-s-impact-on-reopening-society ; It should be noted that the mantra that there is `no evidence' that this variant is more severe or evades the vaccine is based more on a lack of data than anything else. As the following expert reaction, posted on the Science Media Centre website, makes clear - there is a lot about this variant we don't know yet. Expert reaction to latest Downing Street Press Conference on the B.1.617.2 variant (‘Indian’ variant) At the coronavirus press conference this afternoon Boris Johnson made a statement on the SARS-CoV-2 variant first identified in India, B.1.617.2. Prof Jonathan Ball, Professor of Molecular Virology, University of Nottingham, said: “The main threat to vaccine success and return to normality has been the emergence and spread of variants that are able to escape the protection offered by vaccines. Evidence so far suggests that the vaccines should still be effective against the variant of concern first identified in India, but this is far from clear. “Whilst most vulnerable people have had both doses of vaccine, and therefore will have the highest levels of immunity, there is still a large proportion of the population who have only had a single dose or no dose at all, and it is likely that many of these could become infected and potentially transmit the virus. Whilst the vaccines continue to protect the most vulnerable then this should not be a problem, but there is a potential risk of the virus acquiring more mutations, especially if it continues to spread in a partially immune population. That’s why it makes sense to reduce the interval between vaccine doses and ramp up vaccine coverage in potential hotspots. “Of course, if heightened vaccine programmes can’t control its spread, and hospitalisations start to increase and threaten the NHS, then restrictions are all you have left. We aren’t there yet by any means, but we must keep a very close eye on things to ensure things don’t get out of hand again. “Keeping the lid on the spread of this variant isn’t going to be easy, but hopefully early indicators of continued vaccine effectiveness against this variant, will minimise its impact.” Whether B.1.617.x turn out to be a tempest in a teasmade, or something we'll seriously have to contend with in the months ahead, remains to be seen. But as long as COVID burns, unchecked, anywhere in the world the virus has the ability - and is granted the opportunity - to remake itself into a more formidable foe. DJ-see also Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eO6oSJbBwbE&t=1s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eO6oSJbBwbE&t=1s DJ-No evidence often means "we do not yet know" - so no evidence of vaccine escape, more severe disease means "we do not (yet) know if the India variants bring more severe disease, vaccine escape... May 17 will see more reopenings in the UK-with sequencing taking 10-14 days the real number of India-variants in the UK must be already in the thousends...Insane to be reopening on this basis ! Those who spread the variant most have not been vaccinated, may not get tested (in part because of "legal status"...). History keeps repeating itself... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImzsGesBApM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImzsGesBApM Dr. John Campbell UK now 91 of all new cases in the UK India variant...[url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ on friday june 11 the UK did sequence 24,420 India variant cases...Worldometers did see latest increase per day at 7,000 for the UK. Under Dr. J.C. video-"next week" may see 20,000 UK-(India/Delta) variant cases per day. This will bring deaths per day to 40-within a few weeks-Dr.J.C. expects vaccines to offer enough protection to limit pressure on healthcare... DJ-Some idea's (and again I am NOT an expert !); -The India variant may start evading immunity more often in the UK (I do NOT share the optimism of Dr.J.C. who till a few weeks ago was tending to see the India-variant as a limited risk for the UK-to be contained-he was wrong in that-again !) -Given the spread of the India variant in other countries the EU/US may be in the position the UK is in now within four weeks ? Increase of travel will further worsen the outcome.. -The India-Delta-variant may NOT become the global variant-with an R0 of possibly 8 (!!!! Prof. Paul Hunter in an interview with Dr.J.C. june 10) if there shows up an even more "explosive" variant-better in dealing with vaccine-immunity...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE_lXnqDylU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE_lXnqDylU -Dr.J.C. is correct in stating "main stream media" is-again-doing a bad job. Symptoms did change to more cold like-with the increase of the India-variant-so far in a younger age group. But they will show to be much more severe..Also NOT noticing the increase-worldwide-of variants (DJ) makes you wonder what function the "main stream media" believes it has... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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ME163
Admin Group Joined: September 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 4552 |
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India variant is spreading everywhere. It's even in the rural areas of Kansas. Areas of the state are reporting low vaccination rates. |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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ME163 UK [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ 27,316 cases (friday evening local NL time). Other variants also increasing. I was following a few countries more specific. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom#Statistics seems to have given up-only basic updates... Besides the Delta-India .2 variant there is the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant#Statistics .1 variant with 388 UK cases. On top of that GISAID also mentioning 624 UK cases of the SA/Beta variant and 139 P1/Brazil variant cases (among others...). |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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DJ-The UK is about four weeks ahead of the EU/US with the India-variant wave. This story is not only about the UK ! -Dr. John Campbell-Friday update is most about the fourt wave in the UK [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJrfPFTk3pU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJrfPFTk3pU ; UK, Cases, + 8,125, Highest since February 26 Confirmed infections up 58.1% week on week Deaths, + 17 70 million vaccines administered Indian/Delta variant, doubling every 4.5 to 11.5 days in English 60% per cent more infectious than Kent/Alpha variant 5% of Indian variant infections are in the fully vaccinated DJ-The UK may now be in a growing crisis where the EU/US may end up in july. We came out from wave three-UK variant-now face wave rour-India variant-and are reopening...with limited vaccine protection. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/917212-nat-med-impact-of-vaccination-on-new-sars-cov-2-infections-in-the-united-kingdom[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/917212-nat-med-impact-of-vaccination-on-new-sars-cov-2-infections-in-the-united-kingdom ; The largest reductions were observed for symptomatic infections and/or infections with a higher viral burden. Overall, COVID-19 vaccination reduced the number of new SARS-CoV-2 infections, with the largest benefit received after two vaccinations and against symptomatic and high viral burden infections, and with no evidence of a difference between the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccines. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917263-johnson-set-to-delay-lockdown-easing-in-england-by-one-month[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917263-johnson-set-to-delay-lockdown-easing-in-england-by-one-month DJ-Higher risk means more restrictions-to save lives ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/917225-uk-phe-technical-briefing-revised-risk-assessment-household-transmission-study-on-covid-variant-b-1-617-2-delta[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/917225-uk-phe-technical-briefing-revised-risk-assessment-household-transmission-study-on-covid-variant-b-1-617-2-delta ; Despite being well off its massively high daily case counts of just a few months ago - since early May the UK has seen a gradual tripling of daily COVID cases - as the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant becomes increasingly entrenched (see BBC Covid-19: Delta variant makes up 91% of new UK cases). Each Friday the UK's PHE (Public Health England) releases a trove of new data and analysis, usually including a new risk analysis on the COVID variant of great concern (currently B.1.617.2), and a detailed technical briefing. We've excerpts from three updates this morning; the latest Technical Briefing (#15), a revised Risk Assessment on the Delta variant, and a PHE Study showing increased household transmission of the Delta Variant (compared to B.1.1.7). First stop, the largest (77-page PDF), and most detailed document of this week's data dump; the UK's latest technical briefing. Given its size, we'll only look at the summary. Follow the link to read it in its entirety. Principal changes and findings this week are:
DJ-In my opinion the India/Delta variant is a major risk both for the EU and US. We still have time for action to slow down the spread. But based on unrealistic numbers (see scenario's Dutch CDC is using much lower numbers then one finds both in PANGOLIN or GISAID-other countries may use own data/wishfull thinking as well) and "summer/vaccines" will save us we are reopening, allowing international air travel, mass gatherings...Did we not learn anything from how India did get into its crisis ? Again-I am NOT an expert-I hope to be wrong. But if we do see India variant creating yet again another healthcrisis-with HCWers exhausted-next month I wonder how good "experts" are... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.š
Marcus Aurelius |
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cn65
V.I.P. Member Joined: May 09 2020 Status: Offline Points: 275 |
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Here is a good one (or not) for you data experts See this paper from PHE in the UK Page 15 The number of "delta" cases, those in hospital and those dead since 01Feb 2021 Unvaxed 19573 cases of which 23 died Fully vaxed and more than 14 days post the 2nd vax dose 1785 cases of which 12 died So the death rate rate for vax'd people was higher than that for unvax'd people Oh dear..... |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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I would say the deaths in the fully vaccinated Could be age or underlying health conditions..... There's probably more to this story than statistics..... Take care all š·š |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.š
Marcus Aurelius |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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The most likely explanation has to do with Age. Older people, who from all data are far more vulnerable than younger people, were among the first to be vaccinated. Thus they are the first to be double vaccinated. Of the three groups in the report that have received at least one dose the older age group (those who have completed the vaccination cycle) are the worst hit. both in terms of hospitalization and in deaths. The second likely explanation is that too some extent the Indian (Delta) variant is able to evade the vaccine protection - again, if this was the case, this is hitting older people harder than younger people. For the overall effect of vaccination look to how countries like Isreal and the UK brought down their rates substantially. And while USA has reduced its rates it has not been as successful in limiting deaths as countries with a higher rate of vaccine. ps. as most of the Delta cases were under the 28 day limit, one has to wait another couple of weeks for more complete data. There is noise that the Delta variant can evade the vaccine, but we will have to wait to see it the data holds up. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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New Scientist News: Delta variant doubles risk of covid-19 hospitalisations, study shows. |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.š
Marcus Aurelius |
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