Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
India variant statistics |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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Posted: May 08 2021 at 2:56am |
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From [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Statistics DJ-I could also copy numbers of Brazil P1, [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics[/url] (48 countries-13,489 cases on may 5) or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics and the South African variant [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.351#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.351#Statistics (82 countries, 14,979 cases per may 4) -but they may be not be exploding. The India variants-now of concern VOC) B.1.617 are here presented as one variant-but the B.1.617-2 variant is supposed to be the most problematic. These statistics on wikipedia will get updated several times a week-and I will post them-if possible-under this first post to see how it spreads. Given the immunity evasion and widespread of this variant it could become a problem soon-also outside the South Asia region. Nepal, Sri Lanka are hard hit by the India variant. It is unclear if Bangladesh, Pakistan, Malaysia are hit hard-lack of sequencing and the UK, P3 (Phillipines) variant also being a problem. Africa may be not finding India cases because of lack of testing/sequencing. Given the large India community in Africa it is very likely to be a major problem in that region as well. The UK did stop now also indirect travel-via Turkey-between South Asia and the UK. By 3 May 2021, 1,815 sequences of the variant had been detected in 28 countries.[1] (DJ-This may 8 list has already 47 countries with at least 3319 cases) Reported numbers of detections in countries with detections are:
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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DJ Two more countries reporting cases-going from 47 to 49 from [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Statistics ; Cases by country (As of 10 May 2021)CountryConfirmed cases incl. B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2, and B.1.617.3192Total as of 10 May 2021. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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It is clear there are limits in copying from the wikipage...I will work on that...Also look at other sources where they compare the variant statistics... For the India-B.1.617 (Delta=.2) (.1, .2, .3) variant total countries [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Statistics renamed [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics ; june 12 is 73 countries with 31,384 cases (Dr.J.C. already on 74 countries...GISAID-70 countries...) june 10 is 73 countries with 28,485 cases may 30 is 73 countries with 16,049 cases may 26 is 69 countries with 12,810 cases may 24 is 69 countries with 12,114 cases may 20 is 69 countries with 9,023 cases may 19 is 68 countries with 8,279 cases may 16 is 62 countries with 5,981 cases may 11 is 55 countries with 4,703 cases may 10 is 49 with 3.728 cases, may 8 is 47 countries with 3.319/3.325 cases may 3 is 28 countries with 1.815 cases The P1-Brazil (Gamma) variant [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics renamed [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Gamma_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Gamma_variant#Statistics ; june 1 is 54 countries with 29,216 cases (11,220 in the US, Canada 9,730-together 20,950 cases in North America) may 23 is 54 countries with 29,216 cases may 17 is 53 countrie with 24,608 cases may 10 is 50 countries with 17,700 cases may 5 48 countries-13,489 cases The South Africa variant (Beta) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.351#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.351#Statistics is still the may 4 numbers [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Gamma_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Gamma_variant#Statistics ; may 4 =82 countries with 14,979 cases may 19=83 countries with 17,431 cases may 29=96 countries with 21,268 cases june 10=96 countries with 23,326 cases New York /Iota variant [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.526[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.526 ; By February 2021, it had spread rapidly in the New York region and accounted for about one in four viral sequences.[1][2] As of April 11, 2021, the variant has been detected in at least 48 U.S. states and 18 countries.[ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Theta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Theta_variant#Statistics; june 13 223 cases in 14 countries june 6 221 cases in 14 countries.reporting the Phillipines-variant. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant#Statistics =the other India.1 variant; The SARS-CoV-2 Kappa variant is also known as B.1.617.1 and was first detected in India in December 2020.[2] By the end of March 2021, the Kappa sub-variant accounted for more than half of the sequences being submitted from India.[3] On 1 April 2021, it was designated a Variant Under Investigation (VUI-21APR-01) by Public Health England In 25 countries-with 3,542 cases on june 11; India 2,254, UK 388, US 293, Germany 116, Ireland 108, Australia 71, Singapore 61, Canada 48, Denmark 31, France 24, Japan 19, |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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[url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ DJ-selected variant=G/452R.V3(B1.617+) At least has some info on the spread of the variant and increase in % of all cases per region...Latest available info in the graph is may 3...latest reported case is from may 7...So 1 week old... May 14 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Statistics has 61 countries with 4,678 cases (under)reported... In the latest statistics (based on Gisaid may 14) top 10 of cases; may 8=() *may 16 ** may 17 (64 countries) ***may 19 (68 countries) **** may 20 (69 countries), ^may 24 (69 countries), ^*may 26 (69 countries), ^**may 30 (73 countries), ^***june 10 (still only 73 countries in the list-by now very likely in almost all countries-I take the highest number from the statistics-an undercount still), ^^june 12/GISAID=G june15 1 India 1,876 cases (1,494) *2,105 **2,186, ***2,247, ****2,619, ^3,055, ^*3,062, ^**3,364, ^***3,571, ^^3,882/7,520, 2 UK 1,587 (930) *2,237 **3,332, ***3,804, ****4,034, ^6,414, ^*6,887, ^**8,956, ^***20,931 (latest GISAID june 11=24,420), ^^22,394 (GISAID june 15=32,181) 3 USA 485 (333) *705 **758, ***883, ****921, ^1,110, ^*1,177, ^**1,539, ^***1,760 (2,273-GISAID-june 11), ^^1,901/ GISAID 2,573, 4 Singapore 156 (155) *156 **156, ***(still 156 weekly trend +79%), ****156, ^156, ^*156, ^**156, ^***234, ^^244/305, 5 Australia 84 (79) *87 **99, ***99, ****97 (?), ^97, ^*97, ^**145, ^***145 (GISAID June 11 252), ^^148/260, 6 Canada 5 (77 in other sources) (77 may 8) *94 **363, ***373, ****381, ^419, ^*503, ^**681, ^***1,460, ^^1,539/462, 7 Germany 103 (59) *112 **230, ***260, ****260, ^251 ???, ^*334, ^**420, ^***420 (GISAID June 11 815), ^^517/830, 8 Fiji 42 (other sources) (42) *42 **42, ***(still 42 weekly trend -53%-maybe less testing ?), ****42, ^42, ^*42, ^**368, ^***42(?), ^^42/?, 9 Israel 41 ( " ) (41) *41, **41, ***41, ****41, ^41, ^*41, ^**41, ^***38 (also GISAID june 11), ^^41/38, 10 Denmark 39 (39) *66 **66, ***66, ****90, ^90, ^*90, ^**105, ^***105 (GISAID june 11=121), ^^105/121, DJ-In this list Belgium "just" has 24 cases-from a.o. Brussels Times news I come over 40 cases... (51 in list of may 16, 59-may 19, 66-may 24, 74-may 26, 98 may 30, GISAID June 11=206) Since the info on todays list is at least a week old and growth may be 3 times higher then SA variant, sequencing is "very limited", testing is decreasing...the real numbers must be much higher...Also often the may 8 number did not change on may 14...a reporting/sequencing problem ? Updating once a week ? We did see how fast cases exploded in India, Nepal, Malaysia, Sri Lanka (only India in this top 10....Nepal and Sri Lanka only each have 1 case in the may 14 statistics, Nepal did go to 9 may 17 list. Malaysia has 2 cases...(numbers same may 16). And "yes" we have vaccinations...but just as a reminder even in the UK less then 50% did get two vaccinations... May 16 list ; may 17 did not yet change, may 19=*, **=may20, ***may 24, ****may 26, ^may 30, ^*GISAID June 11, ^**Gisaid June 15, Netherlands 26, *27, **32, ***40, ****40, ^51, ^*84, ^**86, Italy 52, *52, **63,***63,****68, ^80, ^*170, ^**172, Sweden 13, *13,**13,***16, ****17, ^17, ^*37 (wiki-june 10), ^**42, Spain 22, *32,**38,***42, ****43, ^65, ^*173, ^**189, Finland 12, *12,**12,***12, ****12, ^60, ^*60 (wiki june 10), ^**16, Indonesia 10, *10,**10,***27, ****27, ^32, ^*34, ^**56, South Africa 12, *12,**12,***14, ****15, ^15, ^*22, ^**22, DJ-Numbers NOT changing may indicate a bigger problem-limited sequencing ! Variants spread under the radar. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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The may 10 and may 14 posts above have statistics both on the India variant and spread of other variants. I will try to keep them updated. For some countries it is showing an increase of variants. Sources for variant statistics; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GISAID[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GISAID ; GISAID is a global science initiative and primary source established in 2008 that provides open-access to genomic data of influenza viruses[3] and the coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic.[4][5] On January 10, 2020, the first whole-genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 were made available on GISAID, which enabled global responses to the pandemic,[6] including the development of the first vaccines[7] and diagnostic tests[8] to detect SARS-CoV-2. GISAID facilitates genomic epidemiology and real-time surveillance to monitor the emergence of new COVID-19 viral strains across the planet.[6][9] Since its establishment as an alternative to sharing avian influenza data[10] via conventional public-domain archives,[3][11] GISAID has been recognized for incentivizing rapid exchange of outbreak data[11] during the H1N1 pandemic[12][13] in 2009, the H7N9 epidemic[14][15] in 2013, and the COVID-19 pandemic[16][17] in 2020. GISAID was recognized for its importance to global health by G20 health ministers in 2017,[18] and in 2020 the World Health Organization chief scientist called the data-science initiative "a game changer".[4] [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phylogenetic_Assignment_of_Named_Global_Outbreak_Lineages[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phylogenetic_Assignment_of_Named_Global_Outbreak_Lineages ; Phylogenetic Assignment of Named Global Outbreak Lineages (PANGOLIN) is a software tool developed by members of the Rambaut Lab, and the associated web application is developed by the Centre for Genomic Pathogen Surveillance in South Cambridgeshire.[2] Its purpose is to implement the dynamic nomenclature of SARS-CoV-2 lineages, known as the PANGO nomenclature.[3] A user with a full genome sequence of a sample of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) can use the tool to submit that sequence, which is then compared with other genome sequences, and assigned the most likely lineage (PANGO Lineage).[4] Single or multiple runs are possible, and the tool can return further information regarding the known history of the assigned lineage.[4] Additionally, it interfaces with Microreact, to show a time sequence of the location of reports of sequenced samples of the same lineage.[4] This latter feature draws on publicly available genomes obtained from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and from those submitted to GISAID.[4] DJ "Other sources" often is news from local media-later on often showing up in reported test results via the above sources. The WHO, (E)CDC etc also have their own reports... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uyZOoFBjc3c[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uyZOoFBjc3c expecting the India variant becoming a problem-both for the UK and EU-he did not mention the US...But the above numbers indicate global increases of the India-variant. Many countries did reopen, almost sending a message "the pandemic is over"-while the global situation is worsening due to increasing variants...(I did not yet include the P1 variant-but [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ does a much better job !) Dr. J.C. also mentions the Vietnam variant. DJ Limited reporting is making clear it is not only a problem in Ho-Chi-Mihn City (HCMC) but also in other area' s in Vietnam. Dr.J.C. has a point that given Vietnam so far managed to keep cases very low-the variant now showing up may have been imported...DJ Also since by NPI Vietnam so far managed to stay out of this pandemic, only 1% of the population vaccinated, any variant could explode... Dr.J.C. fears the Vietnam variant may become the next dominant variant-if it manages to spread. DJ-If this variant was imported into Vietnam-it may already be spreading... Both India- and Vietnam-variant seem to be more aerosol-airborne-spread. I think the India-variant in the UK-with limited full vaccination (<40%) may be the biggest risk. The variant may develop to evade vaccine immunity. Vaccines do protect-but UK hospital cases are going up. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/ Israel may be showing herd immunity via natural/vaccine-immunity is possible. But they may be the exception-vaccinating high speed-travel restrictions...good public healthcare. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics and [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ try to follow the explosion of India-variant cases worldwide...I will add the latest numbers in above statistics... Also other variants are on the rise-ignoring this under current is another major failure. One could also start putting down per country/date the number of variants...with the limitations sources have...most countries have a lot of several variants increasing-UK (Alpha) variant decreasing...By now several new-not yet detected-variants will be spreading. Showing up in july/august... Why is the "main street media" not following these developments/statistics ? It should be their job ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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ericbauman
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This company has a focus on software development process outsourcing https://mlsdev.com/services/mobile-app-development. They have extensive experience in assisting western enterprises to effectively utilize the software testing process outsourcing approach. The company performs thorough background checks on all potential outsourcing candidates. A team of programmers, testers and experienced coaches are based in Kiev, Ukraine. |
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KiminNM
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Yes, it should. They're fighting desperately to stay on message 'get a vaccination and you can do whatever you want'. |
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