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International situation sept-24

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: September 24 2022 at 12:02am

DJ, Lots of stories of "major events" that would happen today...I will try to catch some "info"...

Let me start with "fitting music" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAcYS-_8L2s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAcYS-_8L2s "Killing in the name of" by the North Korean (Peoples ?) Military  Chorus...rare footage..(also fake...)

Yes, there is a "referendum" in 4 Ukraine regions on joining Russia, earlier Crimea followed that road...Military Summary (MS) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuO1QunA-5I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuO1QunA-5I speculates the recent prisoner exchange (with Türkiye, Saudi role ? Or was that a seperate exchange ?) also may have included some agreement on no major sgelling of the four regions during the "voting"...There are some claims Poland now is thinking of organizing a likewise referendum in western Ukraine to include some regions that were part of Poland till the end on World War Two. 

MS even has some hope the referenda, Russian military build up (with 900 Russian planes near Ukraine borders - also to secure the referenda) may see a start of Ukraine - Russian talks. 

DJ My impression is "the west" is running out of means of support other then training. Most of the "west" may not be willing to get more involved...but support countries (like Poland, Baltic states) if they would go further...There may be lots of western weapons that still could make a difference-but they need well trained staff...Poland, Baltics, may be willing to send in their own military for "certain specific" operations. NATO will be involved -mostly away from direct frontlines-with lots of intel. 

Intel-here means telling Ukraine HOW to use specific long range weapons, providing precize coordinates...so all Ukraine is doing is press the button/pull the trigger...

In a further escalation those "NATO staffed" command centers in Ukraine will be atarget...(In Syria Russia did-several years ago- destroy such a NATO/IS command center killing western staff -telling the west to back off...). 

Basic story is the west hates what Russia is doing...but has to face the facts that stopping it would-most likely-result in global war...NATO/west may be "mixed" on that...some countries going their own way-with limited western support to avoid major escalation- could be a compromise...

Another-possible more agressive-move could be including (all of) Ukraine in NATO, in reaction to the Russian referenda...it would open the door to NATO forces facing Russian forces...

DJ-I think there most likely will be a lot of indirect diplomacy between NATO and Russia. Both "parties" expected that steps taken would result in the other limiting their action. So far it only did bring further escalation...The sanctions war resulted in Russia getting MORE income...(DJ [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russias-oil-exports-are-set-plunge-next-year[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russias-oil-exports-are-set-plunge-next-year YES western countries may stop buying Russian oil soon...but they still need oil...other countries can not replace that Russian oil...So most likely Russia will go from direct to indirect oil export to the west...via Türkiye may be most practical...Or will it be labelled as "Ukrainian oil" -the west further lying to itself...Diesel, Kerosine is hard to find out where it came from, oil can be identified. Russia increased its refinery capacity...So-NO-I think the ZH article is going for a western false claim/illusion...Russia-with OPEC+-is dominating the market...NOT the west...)

-The USS Ronald Reagan carrier is in Busan-South Korea...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/something-going-on-in-china-military-convoy-80km-long-headed-to-beijing[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/something-going-on-in-china-military-convoy-80km-long-headed-to-beijing ;

Something is happening in China; a convoy -- 80 kilometers long - of People's Liberation Army units, is headed toward Beijing.

In addition to this military convoy, we also now know that Beijing Airport canceled more than 6,000 domestic flights and international flights. Also, all tickets sold by the high-speed rail are suspended, and the rail is completely stopped until further notice.

There are now widespread and persistent RUMORS (totally unverified) claiming a "coup" against Xi Jinping, may be in progress.  Other RUMORS claim President Xi is "under house arrest."  But no one is confirming any of these rumors, so what we're left with is what can be proved: Giant military convoy heading to Beijing, and all air-rail travel stopped.

Chinese netizens have stormed Social Media timelines with reports that Beijing is under military seizure. The world, though, has no idea of what’s happening because the city is eventually cut off from the world.

According to News Highland Vision, former Chinese President, Hu Jintao and former Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao had persuaded Song Ping, the former member of the Standing Committee and retaken control of the Central Guard Bureau (CGB).

If the Chinese coup rumors are true, then the expectation is that the REAL hardliners take control. If true, a full assault on Taiwan is soon to follow.

DJ...speculation...No idea how unusual such Chinese military movements are...I do not think a "coup" story is very likely. Bejing is several hundred kilometers of the Korean border...Taiwan is further away from Bejing... Maybe the military would be used for some goals in and around Bejing ? 

Several sources have much more worries about the East Asia conflicts...Eventhough Ukraine is the worst war in Europe since 1945. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars may have seen up to 140,000 people killed...It is very likely the Ukraine war(s) did see more people getting killed...(certainly if you see the start of the conflict in 2014. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War  has so far a very low number of people being killed., "just" over 10,000. I think a more realistic number would be around 150,000.).

A look at some conflicts in East Asia;

-Korea, the NK planning another nuclear test ? On the other side NK would "love" to be accepted by Russia, China...Russia and China focus on "Korean unification" both Korea's claim it is their top-priority...Many see "EurAsia" as the main global economy...for that matter SK industry-with China (NOT the US or EU) as main consumer may push South Korea for "balancing".

DJ-The main role the US has in the South is protect against the North...If there are other ways of security South Korea may try to go for "de-escalation" and put its own economy first...

From that perspective another nuclear-or other-test by NK is "stupid"...no doubt "Kim" was told so by Russia, China..

-Taiwan, a full scale military invasion by China (even with Russian/other help) is a "worst case scenario" for both China's...Indirect military action-limiting the fighting (taking over island near China mainland now part of Taiwan, air/sea combat)-but blockading Taiwan till it accepts certain "security agreements (a bit the Russia-Ukraine scenario) I think are more likely. Taiwan may have to-as example-accept foreign policy and defense will be coming from Bejing...Another "one country-Two systems "win-win" claim (of course most of the "win" would be for Bejing in that scenario...). 

-Japan has border conflicts with Russia-still also buying Russian energy..China's, Korea's...Japan -because of war crimes in the past (Korea, Taiwan Japan colonies 1895-1945) has "no real friends" in Asia. Japan industry may try to keep Japan out of major conflict-the Asian market is simply to important for Japan...

-South China Sea...lots of oil, gas, fish, strategic...China has a lot of "border issues" with countries in the region...however Philipines did NOT push for escalation...other countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam etc.) also may go for talks with China...

-The US...in fact is in a problematic situation in the Pacific region. YES, The US has major military bases (Okinawa, Guam a.o.) however most East Asia countries NEED good relations with China, Russia (Indonesia, Malaysia-like Russia also major oil/gas producers)...In Europe European interests are NOT the same as US interests...(voters will deal with the present European political elite ignoring it...Italy may get a female fascist PM this weekend-with Berlusconi (friend of Putin..) links). In (East) Asia countries now go for their own national interests..even if that would mean conflicts with the US...

The US may seek provocation (weapons to Taiwan, US navy in South China Sea) ...Asian countries do NOT welcome such actions...See it as a show of US/western weakness NOT strength...

Still "the US-led west" is going for a "global NATO" confrontation agenda...DJ-My impression western "foreign policy disasters" are resulting in a "west-rest" growing gap...China's claim; "Make trade not war" is much more welcome-around the globe-then a "global NATO" is...

For today...Russia, Iran, China are already de facto as good as in war with the west...They may go for limited military actions against US/western navy in the Pacific/Indian Ocean...telling the west they have had enough...

DJ-I "am happy in Holland" ...would like NL to be neutral-as we were till may 1940...In my view NATO is "more of a problem" for global peace then a "solution"...Both NATO and EU need reforms...did grow much to fast...Global health and climate problems are urgent...we do not need more wars...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 24 2022 at 1:56am

DJ, The basics of Swiss, NL neutrality may go back to [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Verdun[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Verdun august 843...splitting up the Frankish Empire into three parts; The western part would become France, the eastern part Germany-more or less. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Verdun#/media/File:Vertrag_von_Verdun_en.svg[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Verdun#/media/File:Vertrag_von_Verdun_en.svg In between was [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Francia[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Francia stretching from the present Netherlands-via Switzerland- to northern Italy...

The position of Sweden as a neutral country goes back to being in between Russia (including Finland most of the last centuries), Germany (in many shapes) and the UK (in some ways). 

If one likes to keep it simple-history never is simple....Russia/Ukraine history his Viking (and so Scandinavian) roots...The Vikings are a major factor not only in the UK history but in all of European history (from Normandy to even the north of Africa...). If I want to underline history being complex [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_II_of_Russia#Birth_and_family_background[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_II_of_Russia#Birth_and_family_background in fact hardly can be called "Russian"...

The Netherlands had "French visitors" (occupation) in 1672-74, 1795-1813...Napoleon claimed the Netherlands was formed by mud transported by French rivers...(then including the Rhine as a border with Germany...). Around 1900 the German "kaiser" claimed the "Dutch were German but only did not want to know it"...Of course [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_II,_German_Emperor#Abdication_and_flight[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_II,_German_Emperor#Abdication_and_flight fleeing to his niece "queen wilhelmina" may underline the point that the Dutch "royals" -like most other "royals" are in fact German...

Why is this now important ? 

Both Sweden and Italy face election results supporting (far)right wing/nationalist "distancing" from the US...Putting national interests above the interests of foreign powers may become the most dominant trend. A [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Aligned_Movement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Aligned_Movement in a new form...

US dominated western "free" (billionaire owned) media" make a big mistake claiming that "India is supporting Russia"...India most of all is supporting its own national interests...like a.o. Japan does-still importing Russian energy...One could even make such a claim for China. In name still "communist" ruled but "nationalist" may also fit the picture (wich also leaves openings to Taiwan...). 

So looking at the present international situation;

-The EU political present elite may (still) support (to a certain level-still finance Russia war machine...) the US uni-polar view. Hungary-and soon other EU countries go for self interests...Not only (far) right wing "politics" show sympathy for Putin...On the left there once was a strong anti-NATO sentiment...I think lots of political parties may be out of contact with their (left wing) voters on this point. NATO, and NATO expansionism (resulting in the Ukraine war) may not be supported by most Europeans...certainly when there is a very high price to be paid (and the US is now exporting record level LNG-at high prices-to the EU...). 

-Countries like Türkiye (still in NATO-for national interests..NATO/US is paying for Turkish bases...), India, Pakistan [url]https://thesaker.is/pakistans-role-and-contribution-to-sco/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/pakistans-role-and-contribution-to-sco/  now see a chance to support their own currencies...Even Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Venezuela welcome trade no longer based on the US$....

-The main reason why Africa, Latin America still is relative poor-even with a lot of resources-is "western dominance"....We keep them poor...So also they welcome a more open-global-trade. They are NOT waiting to exchange western domination by a Chinese domination...would like to be able to get more "fair trade"...The "west" however is showing to be the main obstacle...not a "movement for EurAsian trade"...

DJ-In my view the basic conflict is "the west against the rest" in a post/neo colonial western struggle (US/UK dominated)...Ideas of sanctions by the west against China, India...even Turkish banks indicate in that view a western weakness...

On top of it all ("Redacted" You tube once mentioned it) once there was an "American dream"...but US dominance in international media now pictures the US as a country with allmost civil war crime, massive homelessness and inequality...One-in-four prisoners is in a US prison...over two million on a population of just over 330 million ! More then 0,5% of US citizens are in jail !!!!

The US healthcare [url]https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/06/the-3-reasons-the-us-healthcare-system-is-the-worst/563519/[/url] or https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/06/the-3-reasons-the-us-healthcare-system-is-the-worst/563519/ is a corrupt nightmare....China, Saudi Arabia, Iran have death penalties...the US (and under US influence Japan) is in that list...Even Russia does not have the death penalty....

The main reason why millions are trying to get into the US, UK, EU is because WE robbed them of a future in their own countries ! By wars, climate disasters, pandemics...The "American dream" is history...it is survival...Being exploited as "illigal worker" in the west may be better then poverty and crime in the countries we kept poor...

So-in my view-the major global "force" could become putting national interests first...working in BRICS, SCO etc may provide a basis for that...Argentina, Egypt, Saudi Arabia follow Iran, Pakistan, India in this list...Countries like Nigeria, Kenya, Angola may be next...NOT to "become allied with Russia or China" but becoming an equal trading partner with them...

The nuance will be missed by most western media...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 24 2022 at 6:23am

A look at three major conflicts;

1-Vietnam...Ho Chi Minh wanted to speak with US president Wilson at the 1919 Versailles conference on [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination for Vietnam...then a French colony...Wilson had no time for him...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ho_Chi_Minh[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ho_Chi_Minh in many ways was a nationalist much more then a communist...Fighting the Japanese/Vichy and later on US/western colonizers...

Some claim one of the reason for the Vietnam war(s) were opium related...In many former western colonies independence movements did get help from Russia and/or China...So-for PR reasons, and with a local elite on the hand of the colonizing power(s) "nationalists did become communists"...

After the French the US-and its allies (South Korea, Australia, New Zealand) did end up fighting most of the Vietnamese people...(The Dutch were confronted with that scenario in the former Dutch East Indies; now Indonesia..). The "western view" of "citizens" having more rights then "subjects" living in the colonies only can be described as "apartheid"...

If the west had used the money wasted on wars for investments in Vietnam, other former colonies, accepted a form of self-rule, lots of suffering, millions of deaths, could have been avoided.

2-Afghanistan...Maybe Alexander the great, the Mongols were able to get Afghanistan under control...In the 19th century both Russia and British India tried to get a grip on the "area" we name Afghanistan...In some ways maybe even now not "a country" in the western sense of the word...

After the US did loose the Vietnam War the idea came up to "create a Vietnam for the Soviet Union in Afghanistan"...Importing jihadi Islamic fundamentalism-not the norm in Afghanistan-(from Pakistan, Persia/Iran under the sjah) destabilization did see the Soviet Union moving in forces in 1979 in support of the pro-Soviet Kabul regime...(the Islamic revolution in Iran the same year-followed by the Iraq (western supported) Iran wars 1980-88 is not a coincedence)...The Soviet Union could not regain control-pulled out in 1989...The Soviet Union ended in 1991-with Afghanistan in chaos-lots of clans fighting for control...A western/Saudi supported jihadi-fighter of course was [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osama_bin_Laden#Mujahideen_in_Afghanistan[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osama_bin_Laden#Mujahideen_in_Afghanistan ...just like the west does not want to know how they supported [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saddam_Hussein[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saddam_Hussein the west would love to ignore its jihadi links with wars in Afghanistan, former Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria, Yemen etc...

After 9-11 the west invaded Afghanistan...just over a year ago that west did leave that country-returning to "taliban terror"...Maybe the main goals of the west in Afghanistan were to keep pressure on Russia, Iran, China...also supporting all kind of other jihadi groups...Afghanistan was in the crossroads of EurAsian integration...

Türkiye-Iran-Pakistan cooperation on logistics-trying to balance their position between the EU, Russia, China the Arab world may offer perspective for Afghanistan...

3-Ukraine...the present referenda could mean 4 oblast/regions, 5% of Ukraine territory becoming part of Russia. Some Ukraine nationalists may even welcome it-to deport ethnic Russians out of Ukraine...The present "rulers" of Ukraine are not all neo-nazi...Ultra nationalists may differ in some aspects.., Most Ukrainians do NOT share the extreme right wing views of the western supported Kiev junta...NOT a democracy !

The "political" part is behind pushing for offensives...even with Zelensky winning his election based on a promise of peace...The military part rather would limit Ukraine losses-go for defensive actions-long term...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IfP9VjaJGA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IfP9VjaJGA Alexander Mercouris (AM); Russia Proceeds with Referendums, Partial Mobilisation; Ukraine Conflict Enters Moscow's End Game

DJ, Military Summary (MS) also expressed hopes that the Ukraine war may come to an end...The west/Ukraine may not like/accept Russia taking over parts of Ukraine...they also are unable to stop it...My view is that even in the present Ukraine junta there may come room for realism...

Ukraine can go for further escalation-very likely ending Ukraine...The alternative may be talks...maybe even indirect talks...with Russia. China may have interests in Odessa, Mikolayev...Türkiye may be willing to find a way out...A ceasefire would be a first step. 

AM also mentions western weapons are made for war in western Europe...not for Ukraine mud and winter...Western tanks are simply to heavy for Ukraine autumn rains...

-DJ, The US did support Ho Chi Minh, Mao against Japan during world war two...In the early 70's-under Nixon- the US went for the petro-dollar, before that both oil and the US$ were linked to gold...Russia and China link their currencies increasingly to gold..."climate change" means the petro-$ "has a problem"...One of the fears during the Vietnam war was the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domino_theory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domino_theory "spread of communism" ...resulting in a domino of war involving Cambodia, Laos in an SE Asia war...

It may take courage and wisdom to realize one made a mistake...However continuing that mistake may be doing more damage...The west is at a crossroad...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 24 2022 at 11:30pm

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/numerous-reports-air-defenses-fired-over-st-petersburg-russia[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/numerous-reports-air-defenses-fired-over-st-petersburg-russia

Numerous reports and videos on Social media are claiming Russian air defense missiles were fired from St. Petersburg, to protect the city from something incoming.

One video shows the missile trails from firing:

DJ...[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%A6ua-%F0%9F%92%A5-%F0%9F%87%B7%F0%9F%87%BAru-reports.17146/page-14[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%A6ua-%F0%9F%92%A5-%F0%9F%87%B7%F0%9F%87%BAru-reports.17146/page-14 mentions some USN (Navy) activity near Kaliningrad...Both the Baltic states and Finland position themselve very anti-Russian...

So ??? Maybe a drone had to take a look at the Russian Baltic fleet in Kronstad-St.Petersburg ? 

North Korea did test another ICBM...but NO nuclear test (so far)...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rruLgyySNGU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rruLgyySNGU Military Summary mentioning Russian artillery killing hundreds of (pro)Ukraine fighters...Ukraine able to get some bridgeheads and the face severe shelling...

DJ-The referenda are going their way...Ukraine increased shelling of civilian targets in Russian held area's. Pro-Russian militia now may see an influx of Russian volunteers...

SM also mentions from sept 27 till sept 30 the northern border between Ukraine and Russia may be a "special military zone"...

DJ-I am a bit confused on the "mobilization" point. MS mentioned this is the first mobilizition since World War Two...Alexander Mercouris mentioned calling up reservists also happened a.o. during the Chechen wars...(The US also using reservists in Afghanistan, Iraq)....

DJ-Thinking of the Ukraine story; Did Russia give up-for now-Charkov because they could not organize a referendum there, get enough of control over it yet ? 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/rekindling-its-iraq-wmd-fiasco-the-new-york-times-is-back-at-printing-officials-said.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/rekindling-its-iraq-wmd-fiasco-the-new-york-times-is-back-at-printing-officials-said.html ...western bla-bla continues...

DJ-I think this weekend there may be a lot of discussion/talk in many HQ's...

-The Russian referenda in the 4 oblasts/regions of Ukraine have to result in a pro-Russia vote...otherwise Russia would not have held these referenda...

-There is a "third army" moving into Russian held parts of Ukraine...Is it made up of Ukrainians, Uktainian-Russians, sort of "International Brigade"? Also is it 15,000 or 60,000 military...

-There is some "ratio" in wars...often for every soldier on the frontline another 9/10 soldier needed in logistics...So 300,000 Russian reservists may see something like 30,000 of them on the frontline ? 

-Some claims of a fourth Russian Army group north of Ukraine...

-Belarus-for now-may try to stay out of the conflict. IF Belarus gets involved it may bring a reaction from Poland/Baltics...nobody may be waiting for that...

-Also some stories of Poland thinking of their own referendum in the west of Ukraine...some regions joining (again) Poland...DJ After 1918 there was a lot of chaos in eastern Europe. Poland-east part, Ukraine had been part of Russia...But after two revolutions in Russia new borders were needed...In the civil wars till 1923 some Polish forces managed to get close to Kiev...

After may 1945 stalin pushed Polish (Romania, Finland etc) borders to the west...(In the war pro-nazi/anti stalin Ukraine nationalists killed thousends of Polish and Russians-they did kill in reaction thousends of Ukrainians...Poland (catholic) and Ukraine (orthodox) have a "love-hate" relation. Both strong anti Russian but in conflict over land/borders all the time). 

I can imagine NATO may be worried about [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Lithuanian_union[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Lithuanian_union Poland/Baltics possibly starting their own war(s) trying to (re)gain lots of land that now is Belarus, Ukraine...

In some ways the present situation has already aspects of a religious, anti-orthodox (Syria, Iraq, Russia, Serbia) war...NATO may try to limit that aspect...(Greece, Cyprus a.o. are also orthodox...NATO south-east, Türkiye is already problematic enough...only Muslim country in NATO...)

[url]https://mobile.twitter.com/ejmalrai?lang=nl[/url] or https://mobile.twitter.com/ejmalrai?lang=nl ...lots of info...

[url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275983.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275983.shtml ;China's third aircraft carrier has started mooring trials, the country's state broadcaster announced on Friday. This indicates smooth progress for the carrier's construction and tests since its launch in June, analysts said.

Celebrating the upcoming 10th anniversary of the commissioning of the country's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, on Sunday, China Central Television (CCTV) announced on Friday that the country's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, is conducting mooring trials as planned.

DJ, In western thinking "war" is "shock & awe"...but that is a US/NATO war...The RIC Russia-Iran/India-China alternative is "slow motion" and much more focussed on economics, supplies...If the west is running out of fuel, raw materials that west may be unable to go for a major war...

The "west" is not clearly defined; Türkiye is still NATO but has one foot in the SCO...Japan is "pro-western" but-like South Korea in need of the Asian market, energy...Australia/New Zealand not in a much better position...

Then the EU-UK-US all with different interests, currencies, weak spots...

DJ-Among others Alex Mercouris, Scott Ritter indicate western weapons were made for wars in the west...Did not do a great job in Afghanistan/Iraq (sand/dust a major problem...also 50C 120F does not help)...so more western weapons send to Ukraine (or Taiwan) may not "tip the scale"...A more cynical view on most of western "defense industry" is they had to produce profits more then military use...(and may need Asian raw materials/chips...). 

To end this segment; The west.NATO is at war in Russia so far mainly fighting Russia-via Ukrainians-in Ukraine...The US-mainly-is in conflict with Iran and China...Israel is attacking pro-Iran targets..however Türkiye and Iran may cooperate against (US/Israel supported) Kurds...There is not-yet-a shooting war between the US (UK, Canada, Australia ? NATO ?) and China...but it is getting close...

India is going for its own interests...however that means buying Russian energy outside the US$, economic growth of 7,5% this year, India, Türkiye, China filling the gap western companies pulling out of Russia did leave...(DJ, in NL there may be a growing US influence however "Asia" is also trying to increase retail...). 

Western action so far;

-sanctions backfire

-military support to a level western armies run out of stock for some weapons...

Further western escalation (again) may show "the west" is very divided...Sweden, Italy now face (extreme) right wing coalitions (France escaped that scenario for now...). In the US the mid-term elections may be a total disaster for the biden "club"...

Of course climate disasters, pandemics did not go away...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Joined: August 30 2006
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 27 2022 at 8:30am

I have been only watching diseases news and/or conspiracy theory type stuff since 2004, so what is that, 18 years.....since that time, I have seen multiple times every year where there is a "Dooms Day" where something bad is going to happen.  Nothing has ever happened.  I have seen numerous times a year where the dollar is doomed, and nothing has ever happened.  I have seen numerous times about all sorts of bad stuff, and this is the year and we are sure......

Take everything with a grain of salt.  I know one day, it may be right, but after 18 years of watching this type stuff, be prepared for a bad situation but take all the bad news with a grain of salt! 

Peace out friends!

NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
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