Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Iran CFR is 13.67? |
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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Posted: February 26 2020 at 9:35am |
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Iran reports 44 new cases of coronavirus and 4 new deaths, raising total to 139 cases and 19 deaths.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232600310851477504 Is this higher CFR as a result of a possible variant of Cov19? |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Probably not. The 'health system' in Iran would embarras a neanderthal. They have zero science, zero money, zero technology and an attitude of: "If it is the will of Allah, then I die."
Sadly, although that is the majority opinion, not all Iranians are like that. But the intelligent will die alongside the stupid. Most of their theocracy are very old, so there is some hope for the future. Perhaps the will of Allah is to remove the blocks to progress. If you think I sound cynical, I am. I have some Persian friends. |
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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Well what is telling then is that if/when the health care system is overwhelmed we have a baseline minimal medical care received CFR by looking at the numbers coming out of Iran.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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People have different opinions on this. I remember that Doc Campbell suggested mutation, and I have also been saying possible mutation. Not only are mutations normal, but they should be expected. I'm personally still leaning toward a new mutation / variant in Iran. Unless the WHO actually investigates it with sequencing, we are in the dark with it and only left with speculation.
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ME163
Admin Group Joined: September 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 4552 |
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A cfr of 13.67 ? wow, that is getting really bad.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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A recent article about Iran and potential reporting problem. I think most will assume reporting problem as it is easier to go that route than to possibly accept a pseudo slate-wiper mutation. Having said that, maybe it is a reporting problem lol, who knows..
Until further data, we have to hope for the best, but plan for the worst, as the saying goes. So in my world, can't rule out a mutation. Would be reckless to rule anything out. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-iran-s-reported-mortality-rate-coronavirus-higher-other-countries-n1142646 |
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KiminNM
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Have they not provided a sample for sequencing YET?? FFS. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Iran??? Duh! What's a sequence?
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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CFR as reported is actually CCFR (Confirmed Case Fatality Ratio). While I am not ruling out a mutation. it is also possible that there is a lack of testing facilities and only the more serious ones are tested. Deaths are obvious, but if testing is limited many of the actual cases will be missed and the CFR inflated. If more testing was done, then more cases will be found and the CFR would decline. ps. while deaths are obvious, I am aware of the dispute between local officials and the Health Officials of just how many died of the the SARS-Cov2 virus/Corvid-19 disease. So even those figures are not obvious, as they seem to have adopted the Chinese accounting system. |
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Thorne!
Adviser Group Joined: February 07 2020 Status: Offline Points: 2695 |
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Do you have personal experience with the Iranians and the Iranian healthcare system? |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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No. But I went to school with Aristocrats from several countries and some minor royalty from a few - including Iran.
My Iranian schoolfriends filled me in on many of the political threads which were woven together to make todays theocracy. I became quite fascinated and still watch the insanely-Islamic state now. I do get the mindset. Belief and fundamentalism underlies EVERYTHING! The very concept of science is sneered at. Take an extreemist from the Bible belt, take most of the logic out of the good book and replace it with some poetry. Now beat that fundamentalist about the head until their ears bleed. After about 1/2 hour, when they are starting to mumble and drool, you will have the guy-in-the-street in Iran. But you still will not grasp the extreme cases. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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On one of his videos he said that he Chinese had noted the disease had mutated 17 times between 7 Dec and 31 January. That's a lot of mutations. There's no reason to think it'll stop mutating any time soon so it may well have become more deadly in Iran.
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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The WHO won't budge with looking into it. Not even sure what their purpose is any longer. |
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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WHOO~ Wonderful Hicks Observing Outbreaks |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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lol
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CharmlessMan
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 09 2020 Status: Offline Points: 250 |
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One thing that is on Iran's side is they don't have an aging population like many western and some Asian nations. Only a very small proportion are aged 70 or over. Average life expectancy is 76 which isn't too far behind the USA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran This should mean that the mortality rate will be substantially lower than it otherwise would. |
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BeachMama
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 25 2020 Location: Southwest US Status: Offline Points: 3080 |
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Two observations on the situation in Iran —
First, I think that the chance of the virus experiencing a mutation, or shift, is significant. SARS-2 (which I still think is a strikingly unoriginal name — seriously, you have the chance to name a brand-new Boris and that’s the best you can do?) is an RNA virus, not a DNA, so it will be more prone to genetic changes. It is entirely possible that a genetic change has taken place, producing a new variant of the virus. Is that what’s happened? I don’t know, and we will have no idea until scientists are able to study samples from Iranian patients. The other point I considered is that we are seeing a specific number of cases that have been confirmed through testing, and a death rate also confirmed by testing. However, that doesn’t mean that those aren’t he only cases circulating in Iran. Just as the case load in Wuhan (and all of China) was likely much higher than confirmed cases indicated, there are probably many more than the currently reported 139 cases in Iran. This would bring the CFR down, if I understand the math of the process correctly ( it please don’t take my word on that — I was a literature major and a philosophy minor!). My heart is hurting for the Iranian people. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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I think it's recombined with MERS,
MERS had CFR OF 8+......... we will never know...... As to Iran..... i don't believe word of what their Government officials say....... "we never shot down a plane"......in fact what plane? And what coronavirus.....atishoo..... Dumb Dumb ,DUMBER......
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BeachMama
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 25 2020 Location: Southwest US Status: Offline Points: 3080 |
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The government is horrid — the people at their mercy. Just like China. A horrific situation.
I also have wondered whether a recombination has occurred, and if it has, then we could be seeing a new — and more dangerous — phase of this outbreak. It is quite scary. |
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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Iran confirms 104 new cases and 4 new deaths; total of 245 cases and 26 deaths.
CFR% 10.61 |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Looking a little better with the CFR. Not much, but still better.
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