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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Is The Bird Flu Slowing Down?
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coyote View Drop Down
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Points: 8395 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 11 2007 at 9:19am
Albert, I hope that you are correct in saying that bf is slowing down. I am just not so sure that it is. Thanks for Keeping this website going. I have been a lurker since day one and finally starting to make some posts.
Once again keep up the good work and thanks for your imput.
Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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The people most vulnerable to getting sick from direct contact with domestic fowl have now been "educated', I'm sure.  No more sleeping with the chickens a la Li'l Abner, it's bound to slow down.  
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I believe everyone should to prep. If it's not the flu it will be something else.

Several years ago my home and much of my town was destroyed by a tornado. At that time I would shop daily or every few days for household supplies. (Food, pet supplies ... etc.) I only bought what I was out of and then only enough to get by for a short time. I was only a few miles from the Wal-Mart. I thought I could get what I needed 24/7. NOT!!!

 

If it wouldn't have been for the Red Cross and local churches my family would have went hungry, thirsty and without medication for a week or better.

 

I started "prepping" within a few weeks. Of course I didn't realize that it had a name. But I knew I was never going to put my family or myself in the same predicament again. 

 

When Katrina hit while everyone was rushing about to get what supplies they could get. All I had to do was top off my gas tank. We had everything else we needed. We were without power for 2 weeks. But we ate well and lived well for those 2 weeks.

 

I know that whatever comes my way, be it pandemic, natural disaster or terrorist acts. My family will be taken care to the best of my ability.

 
So even if the BF seems to be slowing down. I know I won't be. With this sites help I will continue to be vigilant and I'll keep on prepping.
 
"Could someone please help me off my soap box?" Embarrassed
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Originally posted by Wicker Wicker wrote:

I believe everyone should prep. If it's not the flu it will be something else.

Several years ago my home and much of my town was destroyed by a tornado. At that time I would shop daily or every few days for household supplies. (Food, pet supplies... etc.) I only bought what I was out of and then only enough to get by for a short time. I was only a few miles from the Wal-Mart. I thought I could get what I needed 24/7. NOT!!!

If it wouldn't have been for the Red Cross and local churches my family would have went hungry, thirsty and without medication for a week or better.

I started "prepping" within a few weeks. Of course I didn't realize that it had a name. But I knew I was never going to put my family or myself in the same predicament again.

When Katrina hit while everyone was rushing about to get what supplies they could get. All I had to do was top off my gas tank. We had everything else we needed. We were without power for 2 weeks. But we ate well and lived well for those 2 weeks

I know that whatever comes my way, be it pandemic, natural disaster or terrorist acts. My family will be taken care to the best of my ability.

So even if the BF seems to be slowing down. I know I won't be. With this sites help I will continue to be vigilant and I'll keep on prepping.

"Could someone please help me off my soap box?"


Nope, you can't leave I've removed your soap box stairs.
I want to hear more about your two week experience.
What did you learn from that event?
What were you missing when the utilities were gone?
What do you have now have in your preps that was missing?
Were you approached by hostile people?
Did you share?
What were important commodities in this situation?
What was hardest to deal with during the event?
Inquiring preppie minds want to know? Thanks
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Thanks Coyote. We Appreciate the support, and glad to see you posting.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2007 at 6:24am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Roni,    I'm picking Los Angeles as number one because of the international "students" traveling in since the young tend to be more susceptible.      


hi albert,,,,i am picking atlanta as the susceptible port of entry. but yes,,i agree things *seem* quiet,,but all things are never what they seem!


    
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Is this the calm  before the storm?
 
A tornado is often the end of a storm, after you think a storm is over, the worst is still to come.
 
Is this mother natures method?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2007 at 7:21pm
Originally posted by 4=laro 4=laro wrote:

Is this the calm  before the storm?
A tornado is often the end of a storm, after you think a storm is over, the worst is still to come.
Is this mother natures method?

Really an interesting thought. I just don't know.
    
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Annie ...
We had everything that we needed for those 2 weeks. Generator and enough gas to run it 6 hours a day. That kept the deep freeze frozen with my precious ice in it and ran a room size air conditioner, tv, etc. in the house during the day. At night we slept in the motorhome with the gen-set going and the air on high. Cooking wasn’t a problem, we had grills (gas and charcoal), a coleman stove, the stove and oven in the motorhome and a woodburning stove on the back patio that makes the best perked coffee.

 

One thing I learned was I needed to know more recipes that used canned foods. I hate spam! So since Katrina I’ve started looking for more ways to cook canned foods, dried beans and rice. I’ve found a lot of great recipes on this site.

 

I also went out and bought an intex pool. You never have enough water. The RV holds 40 gallons of fresh water plus the bottle water we had. But you need water to keep the toilets flushed and the pool would have been nice to keep cool. 

 

We did share with our family and a neighbor who lives alone.

 

The hardest thing to deal with was the heat. It was so hot and it made the kids even crankier. So to prepare for the next time, I’ve hooked up two RV batteries to a converter and it will run a fan and a small TV. When the generator is running I can recharge the batteries. I’m also going to look into solar panels.

 

Hope this helped a little.  
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I agree that there is no news blackout going on...there are too many struggling journalists out there ready to find that breaking story and would do it in a heartbeat if they found something.  I think Albert is right, it HAS indeed slowed down, but it very well could be the calm before the storm too.  Lets just hope this nasty bug goes away and does not rear its ugly head again!
 
Plus the calm just gives those of us more time to prep!  having some new shelves built this weekend to store more food!
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It does seem a little unusual that all outbreaks stopped worldwide virtually at the same time.  That almost throws the patient zero theory out the window.  It's hard to say if there would be a lull in outbreaks as h5 makes the jump from being a bird virus to a human virus.  Of course there could be a sudden decrease in bird deaths 'if' that happens.  Setting aside the patient zero theory, it could probably re-emerge as the normal flu does each year by enveloping most of Asia at once.  Anyone scared yet...  Wink
 
 
 
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How 'bout a simpler "explanation"?  People in poor countries learned to stay away from fowl.  Lessened contact allowed the Avian Flu to run its course without mutating.  What, too simple?   
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Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

It does seem a little unusual that all outbreaks stopped worldwide virtually at the same time.  That almost throws the patient zero theory out the window.  It's hard to say if there would be a lull in outbreaks as h5 makes the jump from being a bird virus to a human virus.  Of course there could be a sudden decrease in bird deaths 'if' that happens.  Setting aside the patient zero theory, it could probably re-emerge as the normal flu does each year by enveloping most of Asia at once.  Anyone scared yet...  Wink
 
 
 
 
From what I've read and seen, it slows down in the Summertime, and kickstarts again around August-September. And, for all of those who think that the cases have been "decreasing", if you take a look at a month-by-month infection chart from the past three years, paying good attention to the months of May, June, and July you'll find  that the cases have only been increasing from the same months last year, and that there is a natural slowing during the summer. I don't think it has anything to do with it changing, or molding, or disappearing....I'd wait til fall to make predictions like that.
Again, nobody knows when this thing is going to hit, or even if it's going to be h5n1, but something's going to catch us. No amount of vaccine can save us from nature. It takes it's course, and it's time....whether we like it or not.
With all of this technology, all of this "just in time" stuff that's only been developed in the last 30 or so years.....we haven't experienced a pandemic without some food storage, or some ability to live without high-technology. It seems like it's been forever that we've had the internet, cellphones, and the "south beach diet"...but, It's only been a couple of decades...
Something's going to knock the world off it's chair. Bird Flu, TB, Peak Oil, whatever. Prep no matter what, cause with 6+ billion people on the planet, there won't be a lot of room to make improvisions once TSHTF....
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    Bird Flu Could Be Slowing Down   
Compiled By Staff    
May 22, 2007   


This year, avian influenza has killed fewer wild birds, and the World Organization for Animal Health said Monday that this "could indicate the disease is coming closer to the end of a cycle."

In the first seven months of 2006, 38 countries reported initial infections of the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, while only Kuwait, Bangladesh and Ghana reported initial outbreaks in domestic fowl since February of this year.

The drop in outbreaks might indicate that the $2.5 billion international effort to control and eradicate the disease is helping to stem the chances of a pandemic. However, the group says this is no time to let up.

"If we were to say we've won, the war is over, we'd be in a worse mess," says Juan Lubroth of the Food and Agriculture Organization, in a Bloomberg report. "This problem is not going to disappear in one or two years."

"I think we will see this disease diminish, not disappear, but definitely diminish," Lubroth says. He adds that in Indonesia, and possibly Bangladesh and Egypt, the disease may take up to a decade to eradicate.

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has infected about 306 people in 12 countries since 2003, and about 60% of those cases were fatal.
   
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I agree that it seems like the end of some sort of a "cycle", since the outbreaks stopped at once.  If there is in fact some sort of cycle involved, then that means the patient zero idea is probably not accurate.   This also means that spotting the initial clusters may not be possible.  H5 is obviously undergoing a change and we need to watch it closely over the next 3 - 6 months, as if we wouldn't anyways ..  Smile
 
 
 
  
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FOR BETTER or worse, I think we will all know the outcome of this this year.
Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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Originally posted by Samoa Samoa wrote:

The people most vulnerable to getting sick from direct contact with
domestic fowl have now been "educated', I'm sure.  No more
sleeping with the chickens a la Li'l Abner, it's bound to slow down.
 


I dont beleive they have changed that much in their habits.
The chickens would be worth alot of money and their main sourse of food . Most could not afford to not keep a close eye on them . It would take alot of changes to make such changes feasible.
    
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I think its fair to say are hands are tied as far a getting a imformed account of the virus.

The countries infected with the virus have a finacial resont ot not give account to the public. the first country would be devistated from loss of imcome from exports from tourism.

The habits that spread the virus are widespread and common and entrenched in the economics of the country.

The people are afraid of the goverment and dont trust them. They dont commonly go to the doctors for illness unless they are nearly dyding and then its common for people to just die without ever seeing a doctor.Vietnam

Death by deases is coman in these countries. No actual record keeping of deaths like they do here.

The poverty of the average people interfers with thier ability to change their habits.

the Goverment of some of these countries would not allow free press Myner and Iran Iraq and Africa.

The virus may not hit for a year or two years. The TB virus is here and its worse than we have been told.

I beleive in preeping because the virus is not the only thing out to get us.

The terrorist havent quit . They are still sceamming .

It could happen next week next year . I am not a Morman but I do now understand their beleif of storing two years food . There is something to it.     
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I thought I'd share this article.  I especially like what it says at the end:

There appears to be a certain sociopolitical fatigue regarding the avian flu. “We’re clearly getting a sense that there’s fatigue after several years of reporting this disease,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy at the University of Minnesota.

“I’m very concerned,” he added. “People act like, if the pandemic hasn’t happened by the end of the week, hey, it’s not going to happen. This is not a discretionary activity. One day we will be held accountable for what we did or didn’t do”



World News Desk – June 7, 2007

Posted/Updated: 2007-06-08 11:20:05
http://www.realtruth.org/news/070607-001-healthissues.html

HEALTH ISSUES

Avian Flu – A Continued Threat

Despite having faded from importance in the eyes of most news media and the general public, avian influenza (or “bird flu”) continues to ravage certain parts of the world. According to a recent Boston Globe article, 44 people have contracted the disease this year, mainly in Indonesia and Egypt; 60% of these have died.

Source: MCT


Another concern is the disease’s resurgence in Vietnam, where measures taken to control its spread initially brought positive results.

Since the deadly H5N1 strain was identified in Hong Kong in 1997, it has spread across Asia, the Middle East, into Africa, and to the edges of Europe. Beginning in 2003, 262 people contracted the disease, of which 157 died. Vietnam was the primary epicenter, accounting for more than half of the world’s cases in 2004 and 2005.

Dr. Joe Bresee, a flu specialist with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said, “Vietnam has done a great job, but with the virus present in countries around them, it’s a very difficult virus to keep out. Viruses are very small, and they can get across borders in many different ways. It speaks to the fact this is not a country problem—it is really a global problem” (ibid.).

Some specialists have warned that the disease is more likely to be brought to North America through the black market of animal trade than through migratory birds.

“Infectious diseases very often tend to be, unfortunately, very good markers of undocumented trade in animals,” said Stephen Morse, an epidemiologist at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health (ibid.).

There appears to be a certain sociopolitical fatigue regarding the avian flu. “We’re clearly getting a sense that there’s fatigue after several years of reporting this disease,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy at the University of Minnesota.

“I’m very concerned,” he added. “People act like, if the pandemic hasn’t happened by the end of the week, hey, it’s not going to happen. This is not a discretionary activity. One day we will be held accountable for what we did or didn’t do” (ibid.).
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    I think that bird flu is picking up record speed again. Like before every day another dies of bird flu.
The lull in deaths has stopped. And I myself am preparing for our next flu season. I am not saying we are getting it this season. But I am very worried about its possiblity. Only time will tell. Let this time we have now to prepare.
   Factors that concern me at the moment are:
Increase deaths again
Strange reocurence of Tb, whoopping cough, other types of virus etc .
The money governments are spending on preparing
Meetings world health officials are stepping up speed on having.
Reports I have read on how the virus is changing fast.
And the blackout of news being reported to us.
Major business activities in prepping for the bf.
Deaths of birds with stupid reasons for their deaths.
The way stores are displaying foods in bulk like they never did before.
Huge water displays every store I enter more than usual.
NO vaccine or imunity to bird flu.
Migrating birds, and air travel which is bringing all sorts of diseases and virus to us.

All those reasons above make me want to prepare faster.



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Hey I just joined this forum and am trying to prepare for the worst like most of you seem to be doing. I just wondered if anyone out there knows why it's so hard to find any news about the avian flu? It used to be that if you searched google news about bf always appeared. Now nothing. Are they afraid of causing panic, or are things getting better? Are there better websites to search? Help!
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Hi Bluebird, welcome.  The latest news that you will hear about regarding AI can be found in our News Forum.   As soon as any news is released anywhere, it's immediately posted in the news section.   Most people make a habit of checking in here once a day to get the latest info.
 
 
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Thanks for the info! I need all the help I can get! Smile
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I don't think bird flu is slowing down.
I think the chickens are NOT getting sick
http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=16940&PN=2
and
we're not recognizing how many folks are being exposed, contaminated, shed-on, and will likely become ill in the next ten days.

Keep increasing your preps, rotating your preps, and paying off your debt. Get your home and life in order.
We've been given time to prepare, use it wisely.
    
    
    
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Bluebird, Hi and welcome. I think that the news media has bird flu fatigue. it has been around for a long time and i think they just dont want to bring it up anymore. Keep watch here.It will be a great help to you.
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