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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

january 2023 updates

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 01 2023 at 5:11am

January 1, I hope this year will see an end to both wars and healthcrises...in such a way most of us survive...For that matter best wishes !

We did start '23 with a gigantic gap between "mass media" almost claiming there is no healthcrisis and reality...several countries facing almost collapse of healthcare...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/lions/canada-two-lions-test-positive-for-sars-cov-2-at-calgary-zoo/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/lions/canada-two-lions-test-positive-for-sars-cov-2-at-calgary-zoo/

Two female lions have tested positive for Covid in Calgary Zoo, Canada, with other animals in the zoo also displaying symptoms.

2 female zoo lions tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after an episode of mild respiratory disease. 2 male lions also developed clinical signs 48 hours later but were not tested. One of 2 Amur tigers and one of 2 Pallas cats also developed similar clinical signs, neither was confirmed positive to SARS-CoV-2. All cats were previously vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 and all have recovered.

SARS-CoV-2 has been found to have naturally infected 34 species of 11 different taxonomic orders. 

The order Carnivora is particularly susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. The pandemic virus has been confirmed so far in carnivores of 6 families, canids (dogs, raccoon dogs and red fox), felids (cats, tigers, lions, puma/cougar, leopard, snow leopard, Canada lynx, Eurasian lynx, bobcat and Fishing cat), mustelids (ferrets, minks and small clawed otter), viverrids (binturongs), procyonids (coatimundis), and hyenids (hyenas). In addition, skunks (Mephitidae) were found to be susceptible to experimental infection. In most cases infections are subclinical or mild, but there are some reports of deaths attributable to COVID-19.

Promed report

 

** Reports of Covid infections in animals (excluding deer) have become less common since the Omicron variant became dominant worldwide. This is the first report of a Covid infection in a lion we have seen since January 2022. 

DJ, I wonder if the claim "only" 34 species so far did see CoViD-19 infections is correct...Would have to look for other links to see what numbers they provide...Also CoViD-19 in one species (a.o. cats, dogs) see very limited spread (and with that variants...). Other species (minks...rats/mice ??? ferrets ???) may see much more spread-lots of variants...

The "34 species" may be referring to "main species"-a higher number may include subspecies ??? [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/animals/other-animals/covid-in-animals-review-updated-part-7-cattle/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/animals/other-animals/covid-in-animals-review-updated-part-7-cattle/ tried to make sense of these stories...A problem may be in testing these animals-via blood samples ? Their droppings ? Farm animals have economic importance, so there may be economic reasons on limiting reporting of CoViD in (farm)animals....Birds are a.o. known to have seen (other) corona-virus infections...

Spread in animals, co-infections with several CoViD-variants and/or other diseases only worsens the health crisis....

-[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-york-covid-19-news-new-york-welcomes-2023-with-debut-of-new-recombinant-variant-involving-xbb1-5-and-bq-1-14[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-york-covid-19-news-new-york-welcomes-2023-with-debut-of-new-recombinant-variant-involving-xbb1-5-and-bq-1-14 and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news:-sars-cov-2-presents-its-2023-variant-and-sub-lineages-collections:-xbb-1-5,-bf-5-1,-bf-5-2,-ba-5-2-46,-bf-7-with-c1243f,-cj-1,ch-1-1-1[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news:-sars-cov-2-presents-its-2023-variant-and-sub-lineages-collections:-xbb-1-5,-bf-5-1,-bf-5-2,-ba-5-2-46,-bf-7-with-c1243f,-cj-1,ch-1-1-1 ....DJ...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports has 1185 variants of "Omicron"....a lot of these variants may NOT exclude catching other variants on top of them....Worse even...DJ-I am NOT an expert at all-but it may influence the way other diseases develop via co-infections...We may see much more variants of flu, colds etc...

-Vaccines....[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-study-warns-that-frequent-boosters-may-cause-humoral-immune-tolerance-and-inhibit-the-activation-of-cd8-t-cells[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-study-warns-that-frequent-boosters-may-cause-humoral-immune-tolerance-and-inhibit-the-activation-of-cd8-t-cells 

DJ-The idea of vaccines ending the pandemic may be unrealistic...maybe better (oral/nasal) vaccines may help ? There will be a limit to "boosting immunity" I guess...certainly with new variants better in evading immunity one could need to "rebalance" the strategy...However-denial is the basic (lack of) "strategy"....Non-sterilizing vaccines in combination with massive spread-then going for boosters-is "pushing for ADE"? The immunity-system itself doing viral spread in the host ????








This is going under the radar, but looks like the CDC guidelines for masking are switching back to COVID-19 Community *TRANSMISSION* levels instead of "Community levels." That means the CDC now recommends universal masking for **71%** of counties in the US, instead of only 9%.

and

More than half of Staffordshire's ambulances queue outside Stoke hospital on New Year's Eve | UK News | Sky News

-








https://mstdn.social/@tracingcovid/109566959707596444  https://smh.com.au/national/post-christmas-covid-wave-looms-as-some-get-infected-for-a-fifth-time-20221222-p5c86j.html “We’ve certainly seen people who have had COVID a few times: they’ve been hospitalised with their 3rd or 4th or 5th infection & that’s the one that’s turned out to be more significant and more severe.”

DJ, cases may not increase-as far as there is any testing/reporting left...So new variants may be giving more healthissues....

WARS;

[url]https://southfront.org/turkiye-agreed-to-withdraw-troops-from-northern-syria-report/[/url] or https://southfront.org/turkiye-agreed-to-withdraw-troops-from-northern-syria-report/ ;

The parties reportedly agreed to consider the Kurdish formations of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party to be puppets of the United States and Israel and that they pose the greatest danger to Syria and Turkey.

DJ...Türkiye-still in NATO-calling the US-as supporter of the Kurds-a great danger for Türkiye.....The Duran [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2_ktxVQooQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2_ktxVQooQ Ukraine missiles ending up in Poland, Belarus may be meant to widen the war....(DJ-Remind me of the Vietnam-war, the US pulling Cambodia, Laos in that war because they could not beat the Viet Cong-nationalists (turned communist to get support from Russia, China...). 

The international "political crisis" on top of the global healthcrisis will weaken the (western) economy-in that way make it harder to deal with the healthcrises...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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January 3, 

Jacob B. Aguilar, PhD

@JacobBAguilar
·
I wish all a prosperous 2023. However, in realty the XBB.1.5 SUPER variant is exploding in the USA, now responsible for >40% of all cases. Modeling all points to it being the deadliest wave in pandemic history. This will exceed all previous waves. #multiyearpandemic

So maybe some early statistics give a hint ? 

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data would suggest for the UK cases now very slow early decrease ? [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table for now has global cases -20%...with hardly any testing in most places...








...which misclassifies most XBB.1.5* as XBB.1 or BA.2. The actual GISAID data, using Nextclade Pangolin XBB.1.5% show it is indeed at 40% already in the US & at 56% in New York state. It has a logistic growth rate of 0.14 per day, which is very fast. https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/United%20States/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?variantQuery=nextcladePangoLineage%3AXBB.1.5*&

Data /sequencingmay not recognize XBB.1.5...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/xbb-1-5-xbb15-already-outcompeting-its-closest-relatives-in-england/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/xbb-1-5-xbb15-already-outcompeting-its-closest-relatives-in-england/  ;

The latest Sanger Institute data for England show that the recombinant Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 is already outcompeting its familial lineages XBB, XBB.1.1 and XBB.2.

The latest figures from Sanger date back to 17th December 2022, so are already two weeks out of date. Sequence numbers are small, but they show XBB.1.5 at about 4% of sequences in England at that point in time.

If the virus is doubling in size every week, as it appears to be in the United States, by early January 2023 it could represent 20% or more of sequences in England.

Christmas, New Year did see lots of spread, even less testing...Even hospitals may have problems in testing the very high number of patients....with all kinds of diseases...(flu, RS-virus, co-infections...). 

DJ-Still "variant soup" in my view may be even worse then XBB.1.5 . We may see fast recombination/mutation so -even if XBB.1.5 would become "dominant" in most places we should expect XBB.1.5.1 etc. "sub-variants" at regional levels to be different. 

On top of that of course flu (most still H3N2 ?), RS-virus, etc. keep co-spreading/infecting and-in that proces-could change. (But again-I am NOT an expert, just trying to make some sense. )

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-united-states-entering-worrisome-hyperendemic-phase-similar-to-china-and-uk-with-covid-19-positivity-rates-exceeding-50-percent[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-united-states-entering-worrisome-hyperendemic-phase-similar-to-china-and-uk-with-covid-19-positivity-rates-exceeding-50-percent ;

"Hyper-endemic" for TMN means lots of infections, hospital cases, deaths....TMN mentions also US, UK, China, Japan are "first indicators" for what the rest of the world should expect...Has lots of good links to data a.o. on mutations/recombinants not only for XBB.1.5 -DJ, it may be "easy" for "media" claiming XBB.1.5 is the "new main risk" ...claim it is from China....both are non-sense claims....[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/1503[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/1503 (etc) may give some insight into the mutations already happening. TMN earlier reported on [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-york-covid-19-news-new-york-welcomes-2023-with-debut-of-new-recombinant-variant-involving-xbb1-5-and-bq-1-14[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-york-covid-19-news-new-york-welcomes-2023-with-debut-of-new-recombinant-variant-involving-xbb1-5-and-bq-1-14 ...

Another (good !) TMN link [url]https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations[/url] or https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations on hospitalcases...The coming (working)days we will see better/more reporting-(hospital)cases expected to increase worldwide....

DJ-The TMN link ends with "the pandemic just started"...2020-2022 was just a start-up....From a history point of view the Spanish Flu pandemic-killing between 2 and 5% of the global population around a century ago was "mild".....Both West- and East-Roman Empires ended-at least in part-because of pandemics....Europeans moving into the America's killed over 90% of the "Indians" due to European-new for America-diseases....(DJ, Earlier European visits, Vikings, Romans, may not have had enough viral load-or the high risk disease. Often those pre-Columbus "visits" were very limited both in number of people and time on land...). 

DJ-The main reason I am interested in both history & health is the very high potential risks...

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
·
🌎Global spread in just days—Let’s be clear—the #XBB15 super variant is a US-origin variant from Northeast US. The @CDCgov is cowardly in refusing to admit it. 📺Watch the incredibly fast spread (animation by @Mike_Honey_). @CDCDirector needs to wake up.

Masks help ! DIY-at home testing very likely to miss newer variants of CoViD (DJ-If you still have those tests one could use it. A positive test still is positive for CoViD ! Problem is a negative test simply could miss CoViD....)

To end this post; how bad can CoViD get ? [url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/animals.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/animals.html So far indications are most non-human species only run limited CoViD risks...minks may be the exception...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_diseases[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_diseases ;

The first coronavirus disease was discovered in the late 1920s, however, the most recent common ancestor of coronaviruses is estimated to have existed as recently as 8000 BCE.[11] Human coronaviruses were discovered in the 1960s, through a variety of experiments in the United States and the United Kingdom.[12] A common origin in human coronaviruses is bats.[13]

list several species-as far as discovered. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Infection_in_animals[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Infection_in_animals ...again...as a warning to take this crisis VERY !!!!! SERIOUS !!!!! ;In the case of outbreaks of highly contagious animal coronaviruses, such as PEDV, measures such as destruction of entire herds of pigs may be used to prevent transmission to other herds.[49]

DJ [url]https://link.springer.com/protocol/10.1007/978-1-4939-2438-7_1[/url] or https://link.springer.com/protocol/10.1007/978-1-4939-2438-7_1 (=49, a study from 2015);

Owing to the lack of effective therapeutics or vaccines, the best measures to control human coronaviruses remain a strong public health surveillance system coupled with rapid diagnostic testing and quarantine when necessary. For international outbreaks, cooperation of governmental entities, public health authorities, and health care providers is critical. During veterinary outbreaks that are readily transmitted, such as PEDV, more drastic measures such as destruction of entire herds of pigs may be necessary to prevent transmission of these deadly viruses.

DJ...we did make progress in pharma since 2015, however international cooperation only did get worse since then....

End of this part...more twitter in the next part...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wait-second-merkel-did-what[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wait-second-merkel-did-what DJ-In short; The west only making agreements to break them when the west has had enough of it is "end of diplomacy".....Some western countries trying to "push" Russia out of the UN are destroying what is left of the basic idea of global cooperation....

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/12/31/niesters-illusion-think-can-stop-coronavirus[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/12/31/niesters-illusion-think-can-stop-coronavirus ;

Whether it is right for the government to offer travelers from China only a voluntary self-test for the coronavirus, virologist Bert Niesters does not know. "The virus is coming here, we can't stop it, we don't need to have any illusions about that. But Europe now has a mess of rules, and that's a shame. It makes more sense to have a European approach," Niesters argued.

DJ...reality...very likely at least some of the variants in China came FROM the west.....

Other countries require the presentation of a negative Covid-19 test or vaccination certificate before leaving China. This regulation is in place in the United Kingdom, France, Spain and Italy. Also other countries have taken measures, such as the United States, South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Japan and India. Belgium will discuss the situation next week.

DJ, maybe PCR-tests may still be usefull-a lot of newer variants may be missed by Do-It-Yourself/DIY-at home testing...(only 25% of infections still detected in a ? november ? study...?)

The Netherlands however, sticks with the self-test offered and the recommendation to go into isolation in case of a positive result. But Niesters does not know what the right approach is. "I don't have to do politics. I am already glad that the minister is now speaking out, so that something is being said after all. Because the ministry and RIVM were the only ones you didn't hear from last week."

DJ...recommendations did such a great job ! Please....

The Dutch are generally well protected against the coronavirus, according to the virologist. People have built up a high level of protection through vaccination and through one or more infections with Covid-19. "That helps against serious illness, but it doesn't prevent you from getting infected. And even if it's the omicron variety, you can get reasonably sick from it. We're not worried that there will be a dangerous variant, but who can predict the future?"

DJ...please...this is supposed to be expert-virologist-advice to the NL government...still going for "herd immunity"?????

For Niesters, the big problem is in the numbers. "The wave in China is huge. Assuming half of the Chinese are infected, we're talking about 700 million people. That's more cases than have been detected worldwide so far. That's not a small peak."

The virologist explained that he is sometimes shocked at the number of people infected on flights from China. In Milan recently, about half of all passengers on some flights from China tested positive. "If half are (tested) positive, everyone is infected, you can assume that. Because then you can't escape it if you're on a plane with others for 12 hours. But the chance that you won't get infected then is very small."

That is why, according to Niesters, it is important for China to continue testing for the coronavirus and analyzing test samples to determine which variants are circulating.

DJ...maybe western countries should restart serious testing ?????

These so-called sequences should then also be shared by the country with the rest of the world. "Groningen has also shared more results in recent months. The World Health Organization has asked China to provide more up-to-date information so we can make risk assessments and take effective action.

DJ...the problem may not be in the sequencing but what is done with it...ignoring science, denial of problems only makes matters MUCH worse...This NL-times article reflects the "view/strategy" of most western countries...The US now switching to more "advice" on masks...the UK telling parents not to send ill children to school...(again...please...UK rules demanded sick children to go to school to increase herd immunity as a way out of the pandemic....No doubt based on "science-for-sale" pseudo experts/criminals....). 








Tucked away in this article is this from NHS England's Chris Hopson: "there are 9,500 NHS staff absent at the moment due to Covid." Infuriating. With the right PPE (fitted FFP3) & enhancements to ventilation/filtration, this would have been avoided.

DJ, STILL !!! HCW-ers do not get enough protection...when ill they are dumped-"politics" importing HCW-ers from low income countries to run the risks (when ill they get deported...). 

Dear public health organisations, You can't deal with a rapidly adapting virus with highly immune evasive variants with an outdated vaccine only approach. You need variant agnostic approaches- approaches that reduce airborne transmission *alongside* & reduce rate of adaptation.

and

I'm astonished that when faced with new highly evasive variants that are growing - our only response is the boosters that these variants are getting better at evading. Why aren't we protecting vaccine efficacy, by using multi-layered approaches to reduce transmission alongside.

DJ...money is the only thing that matters..."Politics" in many countries seem to be in the hands of "high IQ-idiots" living in a tunnelvision...








We don’t have enough staff. We don’t have enough beds. We don’t have enough social care. We knew this was coming. The government knew it was coming. And they just don’t care. Your blood on their hands.

link to billionaire-owned [url]https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jan/01/up-to-500-deaths-a-week-due-to-ae-delays-says-senior-medic?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jan/01/up-to-500-deaths-a-week-due-to-ae-delays-says-senior-medic?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other 

DJ-It is welcome main-stream-media sometimes link to reality...in general msm failed even more then politics...(but politics and media get paid by the same "sponsors"...). 

End of this part...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 3 -january 3, maybe some optimism ? 








🧵1/N How do vaccines and/or natural infection change infectiousness of #COVID19 during #Omicron? Our new article published in  measures #COVID19 infectiousness, and finds reductions from both vaccine and natural infection. https://nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02138-x

link [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02138-x[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02138-x ;

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and reinfections in previously infected individuals have become increasingly common. Such infections highlight a broader need to understand the contribution of vaccination, including booster doses, and natural immunity to the infectiousness of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infections, especially in high-risk populations with intense transmission, such as in prisons. Here we show that both vaccine-derived and naturally acquired immunity independently reduce the infectiousness of persons with Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 infections in a prison setting. Analyzing SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data from December 2021 to May 2022 across 35 California state prisons with a predominately male population, we estimate that unvaccinated Omicron cases had a 36% (95% confidence interval (CI): 31–42%) risk of transmitting infection to close contacts, as compared to a 28% (25–31%) risk among vaccinated cases. In adjusted analyses, we estimated that any vaccination, prior infection alone and both vaccination and prior infection reduced an index case’s risk of transmitting infection by 22% (6–36%), 23% (3–39%) and 40% (20–55%), respectively. Receipt of booster doses and more recent vaccination further reduced infectiousness among vaccinated cases. These findings suggest that, although vaccinated and/or previously infected individuals remain highly infectious upon SARS-CoV-2 infection in this prison setting, their infectiousness is reduced compared to individuals without any history of vaccination or infection. This study underscores benefit of vaccination to reduce, but not eliminate, transmission.

DJ december 21 to may 22 study in US-California prisons. My reaction-earlier infection and/or vaccination did limit spread at that time....The basic problem however is vaccines did NOT STOP infections...So "vaccines only" -lack of (most) NPI resulted in more immunity evasion....We may be very close to where vaccines/infections no longer offer ANY protection against most CoViD variants in circulation....Oral/nasal vaccines can change the picture-only when they DO STOP CoViD from spreading...otherwise new vaccines only results in more evasion....

In any case: the impact of XBB.1.5 will likely be much larger than any variant that could come out of China for the moment. In terms of surveillance efforts, random sampling of samples arriving from anywhere would probably be more useful than just checking Chinese travellers.

DJ..politics in the west want blame-games not solutions....This pandemic is the outcome of greed-based politics-for-sale...If we want to get out of this crisis we need to change (western) politics...









The exact impact on the absolute Rt value of new infections and on hospitalisations will depend on prevailing levels of population immunity, and both are still a little unsure. I would think a moderate wave of similar magnitude to the current BQ.1 in Europe is likely.

DJ Of course worldwide there are regional differences. Most of Europe has high level of (m-RNA) vaccinations...however if Israel (also very high level of vaccination) gives an indication I think we should not expect miracles....XBB.1.5 may need a bit more time/mutations for further spread in Europe...


* Latest genomic surveillance data show BF.7 is predominant in Beijing, while BA.5.2 & BQ.1* are the most common lineage in Shanghai. Either way, lineages that are either in decline in Europe (BF.7, BA.5.2) or at least as common here (BQ.1).

But still "media/politics" will blame China for the spread of XBB.1.5 even when that variant started in the US.....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2023 at 1:07am

January 4, 

-Mixed news on variant-risks [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-media-now-reporting-that-xbb-1-5-is-mild-focus-should-be-not-be-on-variants-but-to-simply-avoid-sars-cov-2-exposure-or-reinfections[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-media-now-reporting-that-xbb-1-5-is-mild-focus-should-be-not-be-on-variants-but-to-simply-avoid-sars-cov-2-exposure-or-reinfections background matters...complex story...

Still [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-yale-study-shows-that-omicron-subvariants-are-evolving-further-through-mutations-on-orf8-proteins-to-escape-from-mhc-i-recognition[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-yale-study-shows-that-omicron-subvariants-are-evolving-further-through-mutations-on-orf8-proteins-to-escape-from-mhc-i-recognition -like with climate change-you may not notice changes, changes-for now-may not be dramatic...They are part of a proces...more virus spread is more room for mutations. The "variant soup" in itself is part of exponential growth...even when-at first-a lot of those newer variants may look "milder"....

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/bloom-lab-why-is-xbb-1-5-so-contagious/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xbb-1-5/bloom-lab-why-is-xbb-1-5-so-contagious/ ; High transmissibility means XBB.1.5 is becoming responsible for larger fraction of COVID-19 cases. This continues below pattern of strain replacement we’ve seen over last few years of SARSCoV2 evolution. Eg, there will always be new variants spreading, & right now it’s XBB.1.5.

-

It’s easy to understand why it took longer for variants to emerge at site 486: mutations at 486 reduce ACE2 affinity, so benefit they provide in antibody escape comes at cost to receptor binding. See below for our deep mutational scanning data fromhttps://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo7896

So variants like XBB/XBB.1 fixed mutation (F486S) that was beneficial for antibody escape but detrimental to ACE2 affinity. In other words, they made an evolutionary tradeoff.

-

Catch is that F486P requires *two* nucleotide mutations to the same codon, which is rare event even for RNA virus like SARS-CoV-2. https://twitter.com/LongDesertTrain/status/1556473625456377863. That’s why it took so long for variants to start fixing F486P.

-

By the way, whether increase in fraction of cases due to XBB.1.5 will lead to surge in absolute number of cases is still not certain. But sometimes new variants drive increase in total cases, & in general human coronaviruses (& other respiratory viruses) surge in winter.

DJ...So-XBB.1.5 may increase but total CoViD-19 cases may decrease=share of XBB.1.5 of all cases would develop as dominant in the variant soup ? 

----

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCxGXyitu2o[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCxGXyitu2o The Mystery of the Carthaginians in The Americas

Combing through the Amazon wilderness, archeologists made an amazing discovery: artifacts of ancient seafaring people from the Iberian Peninsula. They may have fled the carnage of the Roman Empire's war on Carthage, called by some historians the Roman holocaust. This documentary investigates the claim that South America was discovered and settled by Mediterranean peoples over 2,000 years ago.

DJ, One of the questions I have is what impact diseases can have on a society. Columbus etc. Europe moving into the Americas [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics#European_contact[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics#European_contact ;

The arrival and settlement of Europeans in the Americas resulted in what is known as the Columbian exchange. During this period European settlers brought many different technologies, animals, plants, and lifestyles with them, some of which benefited the indigenous peoples. Europeans also took plants and goods back to the Old World. Potatoes and tomatoes from the Americas became integral to European and Asian cuisines, for instance.[3]

But Europeans also unintentionally brought new infectious diseases, including smallpoxbubonic plaguechickenpoxcholerathe common colddiphtheriainfluenzamalariameaslesscarlet feversexually transmitted diseases (with the possible exception of syphilis), typhoidtyphustuberculosis (although a form of this infection existed in South America prior to contact),[4] and pertussis.[5][6][7] Each of these resulted in sweeping epidemics among Native Americans, who had disability, illness, and a high mortality rate.[7] The Europeans infected with such diseases typically carried them in a dormant state, were actively infected but asymptomatic, or had only mild symptoms, because Europe had been subject for centuries to a selective process by these diseases. The explorers and colonists often unknowingly passed the diseases to natives.[3] The introduction of African slaves and the use of commercial trade routes contributed to the spread of disease.[8][9]

The infections brought by Europeans are not easily tracked, since there were numerous outbreaks and all were not equally recorded. Historical accounts of epidemics are often vague or contradictory in describing how victims were affected. A rash accompanied by a fever might be smallpox, measles, scarlet fever, or varicella, and many epidemics overlapped with multiple infections striking the same population at once, therefore it is often impossible to know the exact causes of mortality (although ancient DNA studies can often determine the presence of certain microbes).[10] Smallpox was the disease brought by Europeans that was most destructive to the Native Americans, both in terms of morbidity and mortality. The first well-documented smallpox epidemic in the Americas began in Hispaniola in late 1518 and soon spread to Mexico.[3] Estimates of mortality range from one-quarter to one-half of the population of central Mexico.[11]

-

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics#Effect_on_population_numbers[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics#Effect_on_population_numbers

Many Native American tribes suffered high mortality and depopulation, averaging 25–50% of the tribes' members dead from disease. Additionally, some smaller tribes neared extinction after facing a severely destructive spread of disease.[5]

A specific example was what followed Cortés' invasion of Mexico. Before his arrival, the Mexican population is estimated to have been around 25 to 30 million. Fifty years later, the Mexican population was reduced to 3 million, mainly by infectious disease. A 2018 study by Koch, Brierley, Maslin and Lewis concluded that an estimated "55 million indigenous people died following the European conquest of the Americas beginning in 1492."[41] By 1700, fewer than 5,000 Native Americans remained in the southeastern coastal region of the United States.[7] In Florida alone, an estimated 700,000 Native Americans lived there in 1520, but by 1700 the number was around 2,000.[7]

Some 21st-century climate scientists have suggested that a severe reduction of the indigenous population in the Americas and the accompanying reduction in cultivated lands during the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries may have contributed to a global cooling event known as the Little Ice Age.[41][42]

The loss of the population was so high that it was partially responsible for the myth of the Americas as "virgin wilderness". By the time significant European colonization was underway, native populations had already been reduced by 90%. This resulted in settlements vanishing and cultivated fields being abandoned. Since forests were recovering, the colonists had an impression of a land that was an untamed wilderness.[43]

DJ..So most of the native American population reduction was between 1500-1700..a lot of it 1500-1550-further reduction more the outcome of collapse of society and introduction of yet other new-for the area-diseases.  [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics#/media/File:Acuna-Soto_EID-v8n4p360_Fig1.png[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics#/media/File:Acuna-Soto_EID-v8n4p360_Fig1.png 

How does this translate to CoViD-19 ? 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic ; Although contemporaries described the pandemic as influenza and 20th-century scholars identified several influenza strains as the possible pathogen, some more recent authors suggest that it may have been caused by human coronavirus OC43.[6][7][8][9]

DJ If the "Russian Flu of 1889" indeed was caused by [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43 CoViD-19 could become a "cold like virus" over time...Since it did spread this much...billions of human cases, very likely millions of non-human cases (most of the spread in minks now under control ???) CoViD-19 still may have a long way to go before "running out of possible mutations"....

IF-however-the 1889 "Russian Flu" indeed was a flu-virus, and NOT a 19th century form of CoViD, maybe the perspective worsens...

DJ-One idea is SARS-2/CoViD-19 has to run out of possible mutations at a certain moment...

About 15 years ago we did three simulations of a pandemic starting in Africa, Asia and NY based on actual flight routes to show how the spread works. As you can see in this case, from NY it went everywhere very fast.

Did a study on the number of possible mutations (deletions, recombinations) and had the idea there may be "a lot" (millions I believe it was...). 

So...can CoViD-19 -if it is a relative new sort of corona-virus- "end humanity"???? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coronavirus#Discovery_of_human_coronaviruses[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coronavirus#Discovery_of_human_coronaviruses (by the way; Then B814 could be maintained in the new human tracheal culture and experimentally passed on to healthy volunteers by nasal inoculation. DJ...in the 60's they believed this was safe ???)

[url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html ;Common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold. Most people get infected with one or more of these viruses at some point in their lives.

DJ [url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html , [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacoronavirus_1[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacoronavirus_1 the idea is corona-virus once ended up in humans from other species and developed into a cold-like symptom virus...

So...SARS/MERS are more serious...and maybe we do not have the knowledge to estimate what SARS-2/CoViD-19 could do if we do not get a grip on it ? Flu-pandemics end up because immunity stops further spread....immunity may not be strong/long enough to stop CoViD from creating new variants able to re-infect...And when CoViD runs out (if ever...) of new variants immunity may no longer protect us against re-use of older mutations/variants ? 

Again-I am not any kind of expert...just trying to make some sense...

Part 2 more twitter...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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On the US;








We have consistently 4 X more #COVID19 hospitalized patients (~170) compared to Flu (~45), 15 X > than RSV (10); we also have intubated #COVID19 pts. I hear similar numbers from all over the Northeast. Not aiming to spread panic, simply inject reality, encourage caution




-







In the US its share doubled every ~8 days during the past 2.5 months and is now estimated to contribute more than 30% of cases. Across the globe XBB.1.5 is still comparably rare (<5%).
DJ  ....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table always were not very usefull early january....Global cases would be -22%, US even -46%...Africa CoViD deaths +61% 18 reported last week, 29 this week...Asia deaths +6%...

China cases would be +56% (last week 24,107 to last 7 days 37,546) India cases +14% (last week 1,314, this week 1,498 CoViD cases in India...population 1,4 billion...). 








Great work! Immune evasion by XBB.1.5, even after 3 mRNA vaccins plus a BA.5 infection.

link [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.522427v1[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.522427v1The fact that XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 showed comparable antibody evasion but distinct transmissibility suggests enhanced receptor-binding affinity would indeed lead to higher growth advantages. The strong hACE2 binding of XBB.1.5 could also enable its tolerance of further immune escape mutations, which should be closely monitored.

DJ...XBB.1.5 getting around 3 vaccines plus BA.5 infection-immunity simply looks like bad news...Most people have less immunity protection...So-more info on age, gender, health of the case may explain why (s)he got still infected...high risk enviroment + no NPI/ventilation ? 

UK,

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/children/uk-keep-kids-at-home-if-they-are-sick-adults-should-wear-a-mask/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/children/uk-keep-kids-at-home-if-they-are-sick-adults-should-wear-a-mask/ ;It seems that a collapsing National Health Service has finally stirred the UK Health Security Agency from its winter slumberfest, forcing them to issue a decree telling parents to keep their kids at home if they are sick. Adults who aren’t well should wear a facemask. This advice comes just ONE DAY before schools are due to resume following the winter break.

A look at [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data has january 3; 3,322,552 active cases...December 29 had 3,363,774 active UK cases...so are UK cases decreasing or is reporting symptoms an issue ? UK hardly reporting official statistics "because the pandemic is over"....







Business profile picture

“There seems to be almost a battle of machismo and denial going on.” Dr Ian Higginson, VP of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, asks NHS and political leaders if there’s “an acceptable number” of patients dying as a result of delays and crisis in the NHS.

DJ denial as a strategy....

WesElyMD

@WesElyMD
·
1/🧵 Our cell’s genes are rewired in MILD COVID 🧬 Stunning data in @Nature White Cells (monocytes) switch gene expression from an established innate immune profile to a pro-clotting signature in COVID. We’re immunocompromised. Let’s unpack this… https://go.nature.com/3GeDygW

DJ...here in NL the RIVM-NL-CDC stops providing CoViD-deaths statistics, Central Bureau of Statistics will provide statistics on deaths...with a four month delay....

Let op: sterfgevallen door covid worden niet meer door het RIVM gepubliceerd. Het CBS zal dit wel vermelden in de doodsoorzakenstatistiek, maar daar zit een vertraging in van vier maanden. De info komt uiteindelijk dus wel beschikbaar maar het duurt veel langer dan gebruikelijk.

(NL version)

China estimates 250mn people have caught Covid in 20 days

link [url]https://www.ft.com/content/1fb6044a-3050-44d8-b715-80c18ca5c9ab[/url] or https://www.ft.com/content/1fb6044a-3050-44d8-b715-80c18ca5c9ab ...that is a very extreme number...around 18% of China population getting infected last 20 days....UK population 68,5 million....with at present 3,3 million active cases - around 5% of the UK population may have been infected last 20 days ???








We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2023 at 12:05am

january 5 - 2023

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-is-not-sars-cov-3-stupids-be-patient-sars-cov-3-is-likely-to-emerge-around-mid-or-late-2023-via-zoonotic-involvement[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-is-not-sars-cov-3-stupids-be-patient-sars-cov-3-is-likely-to-emerge-around-mid-or-late-2023-via-zoonotic-involvement (I totally disagree with how TMN communicates-insults should NOT be part of a discussion).

Dr David Berger, aBsuRdiSTe cROnickLeR

@YouAreLobbyLud
·
1/ HOW DIFFERENT IS XBB.1.5 AND HOW WORRYING IS IT? Very. This graphic from the linked paper shows it is as different from the Wuhan variant (now known as WT = Wild Type) of SARS-COV-2 as WT is from SARS-COV (the virus which caused SARS1 in 2003). https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.11.23.517532v1.full.pdf


DJ-XBB.1.5 is "very far away" from the 2019 earliest variants...Is that a reason to name it "SARS-3"? I think the "name" is the least of our problems...However if it would be named SARS-3 maybe this pandemic would be taken more serious ? 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/03/covid-hospitalizations-jumped-60-last-week-2022-hospital-total-8-week-high[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/03/covid-hospitalizations-jumped-60-last-week-2022-hospital-total-8-week-high and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/04/flu-epidemic-continuing-third-week-flu-cases-highest-point-3-years[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/04/flu-epidemic-continuing-third-week-flu-cases-highest-point-3-years  Lots of countries now face hospital crises...

[url]https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/fur-free-europe[/url] or https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/fur-free-europe Denmark is thinking of allowing mink-farming again...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5Cluster 5 is a designation used by the Danish Statens Serum Institut for a virus variant described by the institute in autumn 2020, in connection with investigations of SARS-CoV-2 infection among mink and humans in the north of Jutland, Denmark.[1]

DJ...is there an end to stupidity ? 

-A major problem in this pandemic is the way it is seen. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYrFU6QnhBE&t=629s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYrFU6QnhBE&t=629s  Dr. John Campbell believes "infection creates natural immunity"...so infections would end the pandemic, CoViD would be "self limiting" -maybe more slowly then "the flu" but both vaccines, and after infection immunity would be strong enough to "end the pandemic"...

This "view" is widespread, the basics for most policies...however based on wishfull thinking...not science...










This would be ca 4-5x the typical yearly toll of influenza (flu causes ca 1100 deaths/year in BE, ca 400K across the world). Equally, it would be possible of course that ever higher levels of population immunity would cause the infection fatality rate to still go down a bit more.

DJ  not only would "living with CoViD" result in 2 million deaths per year, many millions dealing with "long CoViD"...it also means -by now- a variant "soup"-mega mix...People/hosts getting infected with several CoViD variants...Immunity-if any-after vaccination and/or infection simply does not last long enough and is strong enough....

BR.2.1 and XBF aren't getting the attention XBB.1.5 is getting, but they have become dominant together in New South Wales, Australia. And probably in Victoria as well, which has more XBF than BR.2.1. XBF has S:F486P like XBB.1.5 and XBK, while BR.2.1 has F486I. 1/2

DJ...Maybe the correct picture is we are still in SARS-2 phase-the start of this pandemic was (somewere) in 2019...However SARS-3 -brewing in some animal-may be around the corner...

So far we totally failed to deal with the present pandemic-did act as if it was a type of (self limiting via immunity) flu...well it is NOT ! 

This year -2023- will bring hard realities with millions of lives lost...

End of this part...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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January 6 - 2023,

The basic (western) "suggestion" is pandemic now is endemic-wordgames....

XBB.1.5 now also a.o. detected in Canada, Brazil...so is the "variant soup idea" not valid ? Australia, China a.o. may still have lots of other variants...XBB.1.5 (Kraken) has lots of subvariants...I think the "variant soup idea" still is valid and very dangerous..."The Virus" now has many entries, ways of spread, not "just a few variants"...









Coronavirus found in samples from 96% of flights. New research shows the COVID-19 virus has been found on nearly every flight tested. 

link; [url]https://www.audacy.com/wwjnewsradio/news/national/coronavirus-found-in-samples-from-96-percent-of-flights[/url] or https://www.audacy.com/wwjnewsradio/news/national/coronavirus-found-in-samples-from-96-percent-of-flights (not available in EU)

Excess deaths in UK hit highest level in two years amid NHS crisis | The Independent

link; [url]https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-accident-emergency-hospital-death-toll-b2256740.html[/url] or https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-accident-emergency-hospital-death-toll-b2256740.html  (public info behind paywall - so you pay twice, first via tax, then via subscription...) 








ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 23 Dec. 2,982 more deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 2015-19 average. That’s 26% more, the largest excess we’ve seen all year. Year-to-date there have been 567,379 deaths recorded which is 8% more than 2015-19 avg.

DJ, here in NL;

Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch
·
Interesting development: The Netherlands health authorities will no longer report covid deaths So the only measure of covid deaths as of 2023 will be the dutch stats office, who needs unfortunately 4 months to consolidate the data (there are rules to be observed) 1/ twitter.com/rubenivangaale…

simply stop reporting numbers, stop testing, even stop waste water sequencing....

With in the UK the NHS collapsing;








I can't put into words just how much I abhor this. The right to strike is incredibly hard won and workers only real weapon against abusive employers like this government. To remove it is a huge, awful step and we must fight it every step of the way.

and

Steven Swinford

@Steven_Swinford
·
EXCLUSIVE: Rishi Sunak is poised to announce minimum strike legislation as soon as tomorrow It will enable employers to sue unions and sack employees if they refuse to accept Hearing six sectors covered - NHS, schools, rail, borders, fire, nuclear https://thetimes.co.uk/article/69f2c02c-8c77-11ed-b24e-c1aaebfbdb8d?shareToken=da488f5271005a8f26a56fd1fa36dcb6

DJ...how to solve problems ? Deny them ! Silence people who point out that denialism only makes matters worse..."by law the pandemic is over"...By law we ended climate collapse, by law we "beat Russia"...endless insanity ! End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ; 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/p/about-us[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/p/about-us If you want to showcase Thailand medical sector then please stop insulting people. TMN has lots of good info but the words used are not wise. I can live with cynicism-by now maybe the only realist way of seeing how healthcare is being destroyed by neo-liberalism...

But getting personal, insults, will stop people from using TMN as a source. 

DJ in foreign policy "veterans today" , "hal turner" also go over borders...I want to look at things from different corners but I will not link to "hate-sites" for very long...TMN runs the risk of frustation and anger becoming dominant over the info...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-is-not-as-worrisome-as-compared-to-china-s-unique-bf-7-and-ba-5-2-sub-lineages-that-are-driving-hospitalizations-and-deaths[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-is-not-as-worrisome-as-compared-to-china-s-unique-bf-7-and-ba-5-2-sub-lineages-that-are-driving-hospitalizations-and-deaths DJ-So how bad is XBB.1.5 ? 








Replying to   and 
Given that XBB.1.5 is spreading all across the US, already having reached a share of 20%-70% in various US states & that it is also spreading in all other countries for which we have good data I would say answer to the question "Will XBB.1.5 spread further?" is: most probably yes

and








Number of Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 reaches 48,810, the highest since February 2022

DJ, since mostly testing-and with that- sequencing has stopped "because the pandemic is over" it may be hard-if not impossible-to get a realistic view on XBB.1.5 . Some see it as "SARS-3" others claim new variants-able to better link to both ACE-2 and other receptors -in that way even worse- spreading from animals (mink farming restarting in Denmark....) to humans should be named SARS-3....

There must be millions (????) of co-infections of CoViD and flu....








Grim milestone hit today in England. 🚨TWENTY THOUSAND🚨 children aged under 5 have now been hospitalised by Covid.

DJ, children were believed to not get very ill from CoViD...some "experts" even -still- claiming catching CoViD boost immunity...DJ-CoViD destroys immunity...in 90% of cases (a study claimed) the virus does NOT leave the body...keeps doing damage, mutating..."long CoViD often is chronic CoViD" with the virus still doing damage-LF/DIY at home testing may no longer detect any virus...

TMN mentions China seeing BF.7, , BA.5.2 subvariants resulting in high number of hospital cases, deaths...DJ-Given China has a population of 1,4 billion "high numbers" are relative...China could see 3 million deaths of CoViD and still do much better then the US with a population of 333 million and over 1 million CoViD deaths....

BR.2.1 and XBF aren't getting the attention XBB.1.5 is getting, but they have become dominant together in New South Wales, Australia. And probably in Victoria as well, which has more XBF than BR.2.1. XBF has S:F486P like XBB.1.5 and XBK, while BR.2.1 has F486I.

So several variants still playing major roles in different area's...Africa had very poor testing (South Africa doing a bit better) but we may in be for more surprises...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-sars-cov-2-variant-cluster-onslaught-in-japan-is-now-worse-than-china-231,000-covid-19-cases,-498-deaths-in-last-24-hours[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-sars-cov-2-variant-cluster-onslaught-in-japan-is-now-worse-than-china-231,000-covid-19-cases,-498-deaths-in-last-24-hours  TMN points to XBF variants -also detected in Australia- resulting in high number of (hospital) cases, deaths even in the vaccinated...

TMN also mentiones Japan government actively trying to "stop the news"...denial as a strategy...DJ results in genocide by pandemics. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table is doing an impossible job...Also [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data may be having a hard time due to both "pandemic fatigue" and missing the point that maybe less cases may still see more severe cases...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2023 at 11:53pm

January 7....Insanity rules...

In a growing number of countries HCW-ers may go on strike for better pay, safer working conditions...still 'neo-liberal political insane" push again billions into more wars...

DJ-One should always look at pandemics against their background-pandemics are the outcome of a process-should be seen as part of that process !

So...the EU going to check on passengers coming from China..if they test positive they will be advised they tested positive...[url]https://www.independentsage.org/statement-on-covid-19-management-in-light-of-pandemic-increase-in-china/[/url] or https://www.independentsage.org/statement-on-covid-19-management-in-light-of-pandemic-increase-in-china/ because "the west" did give on testing...claiming "CoViD is over" when it is getting worse...The XBB.1.5 variant from the US -NOT from China !!!- is spreading also in Europe...

STOP THE SPREAD would deal with the weakest spot in this pandemic cycle; disease-transport-host....Somehow even some "experts" in this 4th year of CoViD pandemic stick to dealing with CoViD as if it was some kind of self-limiting flu-like disease...So we keep seeing MORE spread, MORE variants...at the end more illness and deaths..."Living with the virus"means 2 million CoViD deaths per year may be an optimistic view! 

Long CoViD in 90% of cases is CHRONIC CoViD-with the virus still in the body doing damage ! "Long CoViD" by now is the most widespread of CoViD ! Very likely hundreds of millions of people around the globe deal with limitations this Long coViD brings...excess deaths are very high...NOT linking that with CoViD is BAD politics !

Newer variants only outcompete the older variants by being "better" in spreading; so higher viral load, better binding to receptors, more immunity evasion...andwe do NOT stop that. It is a political choice...a criminal choice !








1 in every 7.5 over 85s has been hospitalised with covid in England.

DJ, this is murder !

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-new-sars-cov-2-variants-in-china-bf-7-14-and-ba-5-2-48-found-to-driving-pneumonia-and-ards-but-fake-virologist-claiming-they-are-mild[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-new-sars-cov-2-variants-in-china-bf-7-14-and-ba-5-2-48-found-to-driving-pneumonia-and-ards-but-fake-virologist-claiming-they-are-mild  and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-symptoms-and-manifestations-based-on-collated-data-from-observations,-online-searches-and-social-media-postings[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-xbb-1-5-symptoms-and-manifestations-based-on-collated-data-from-observations,-online-searches-and-social-media-postings TMN claiming some of the new Chinese variants may be more of a risk then the XBB.1.5 spreading from the US. 

DJ-TMN is very correct in stating that ALL new variants should be a worry since we may not know the long term effects and what role new variants may play in evolution of this pandemic. 

TMN also warning; XBB.1.5 may spread more via the eyes...more receptor-binding so a low viral load-via the eyes-still can cause an infection. Symptoms may look more like flu...so NO loss of smell. More Gastro-Intestal problems, sleep disorders, neck-pain, fatigue...Children less vulnerable for XBB.1.5 ???

DJ-Schools will reopen coming monday in lots of countries...also more workplaces could reopen-more spread...

International situation-DJ my view;

I think "the rest" of the world may unite to make clear their view of the "west".

-In Ukraine I would not be surprised if a pro-Russian offensive would move close to the Polish border south to cut of further western supplies to keep the Ukraine war going...The rest of the world has had enough of this NATO agression...They may not only want to finish the Ukraine war but also end NATO being able to go for confrontation...

-Economic wars will heat up. The rest of the world may further increase dropping the US$, Euro €, UK-pound...go for "limiting" western economies to support wars...

-Here in Europe [url]https://www.statista.com/chart/29050/record-winter-temperatures/[/url] or https://www.statista.com/chart/29050/record-winter-temperatures/ it is much to warm...So energy-wars only have a limited effect. Demand for energy did not yet become a major problem...So currency wars will be the next frontline...

-Energy prices were part of the inflation going up...decrease of value of $, €, pound in the "international market" will again increase inflation...

Fiat-currency is the western weak spot...The intrinsic value of western-fiat-currencies is very limited (maybe not even 1% of what we now use it for...So 1 $, 1 € may be 0,01 dollar or euro soon...). The western phantasy of "solving" any crisis by printing more money has become western civilization build on melting ice....

Ignoring pandemics, climate change...empty words by useless "leaders" did lead the west to its end...I do not see a stop..."western dominance" is over. 

End of part 1


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2023 at 12:33am

part 2, 

Very good summary [url]https://www.independentsage.org/statement-on-covid-19-management-in-light-of-pandemic-increase-in-china/[/url] or https://www.independentsage.org/statement-on-covid-19-management-in-light-of-pandemic-increase-in-china/ ;

COVID-19 management in light of pandemic increase in China and potential impact of new Omicron sub-variants (notably XBB.1.5 “Kraken”, and CH.1.1 “Orthrus”)

High rates of SARS-CoV2 transmission anywhere in the world makes the emergence of new variants more likely. Some new variants are more transmissible and/or better able to evade antibody immunity acquired through previous infection or vaccination, in which case they seed a new wave of infections in susceptible populations.

Following the recent easing of protective measures such as physical distancing, masking, mass testing, and quarantining in China, cases of COVID-19 have increased dramatically. The millions of new infections in China provide many opportunities for the virus, now expanding rapidly, to mutate. However, the viral lineages now dominant in China closely resemble those that have been widespread elsewhere since mid-2022. Nevertheless, as SARS-CoV2 spreads further within the Chinese population, it is likely that new variants will emerge there, as they have been doing in other parts of the world. The consequences for the global course of the pandemic is, however, unpredictable because of differences in immunity between distinct global populations.

In the UK, the Omicron subvariant BQ.1.1 became dominant at the end of 2022, but now two new Omicron subvariants, CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5 have emerged, and are likely to replace it. The fastest growth (but still representing a small number of cases) is occurring with the XBB1.5 variant, probably imported from the USA, which appears both more transmissible and more immune evasive. Cases and hospital admissions are rising rapidly now in the North-Eastern USA, where XBB.1.5 is dominant. This is likely again due to differences in both the nature and extent of vaccine- and infection- acquired immunity between these populations, yet there is no guarantee that this will remain the case going forward.

The UK Government introduced two precautionary measures in early January 2023, in response to the step-change observed in the Chinese epidemic. First, people travelling directly from China will be required to show a negative test result before boarding their flight. Second, a sample of travellers from China will be tested on entry to the UK and any SARS-CoV-2 lineages will be genetically sequenced to identify new variants. However, passengers arriving and testing positive will not be obliged to self-isolate.

Independent SAGE has the following comments on this approach:

  1. Requiring negative COVID-19 tests on direct entry from China is unlikely to make any material difference to the number of cases in the UK. This is because the UK is doing little to control transmission internally, and large numbers of infections presumably arrive from other countries (and equally, spread from the UK to other countries). When attempted in the past, even with a much wider range of countries, this policy has not been effective in keeping prevalence low – this has only worked when implemented as part of a comprehensive quarantine policy.
  2. Testing and genetic sequencing of a proportion of international arrivals makes sense, but only if carried out regardless of the origin of travellers and not just China. Genetic surveillance and the sharing of SARS-CoV2 sequence data varies considerably between countries, with China currently being one providing the least data. Variants can arise anywhere, including the UK.
  3. Surveillance and identification of new variants is helpful only to the extent that action is taken to reduce ensuing transmission within countries where they are introduced.

From the UK perspective, the NHS is already under unprecedented systemic pressure, exacerbated by both COVID and other winter viruses including resurgent influenza virus.  XBB.1.5 is one of the most immune-evasive SARS-CoV-2 variants to date. It also appears to be more transmissible. These features help explain why XBB.1.5 is currently outcompeting other variants such as the BQ lineages in the US, and may also be why it appears to be associated with higher hospitalisation rates.

Thus, we urgently need the multi-layered approach (a.k.a. “Vaccines Plus”) as called for by the Scientific Advisory Group in Emergences (SAGE) in their paper published in 2021: “Sustaining behaviours to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission” and the associated journal article “Staying ‘COVID-safe’: Proposals for embedding behaviours that protect against COVID-19 transmission in the UK” 

Immediate steps, as called for by Independent SAGE in its final report of 2022, are:

  1. If you haven’t done so already, get vaccinated and/or get a booster without delay. If eligible for the Flu vaccine, ensure you and/or your children have this as well. This vaccine is also available to purchase (anyone over the age of 12) for those able to afford to do so.
  2. If you feel unwell, or have been in close contact with someone who is (or has tested positive for COVID), don’t go out and risk infecting others – whether with SARS-CoV2, influenza or anything else.
  3. Before visiting others, especially anyone elderly or otherwise vulnerable, take a COVID test if you can.
  4. When you meet others, make sure the setting is as well-ventilated as possible.
  5. Where possible, wear a mask in crowded indoor situations, especially where air quality may be poor (e.g. public transport)

These immediate measures need to be combined in the longer term with Government investment to make public spaces (social, educational and workplace) safe through ventilation and air filtration, providing free tests and masks for those unable to afford them, and an effective public communication campaign about the symptoms associated with current variants. These are critical steps needed to reduce the likelihood of people transmitting SARS-CoV2, becoming seriously ill and/or dying from COVID-19. Finally, many, even without severe infections, may suffer long-term health problems due to long COVID.

DJ, western countries did give up on testing, masks...more money for wars means less money for healthcare, ventilation...Even political dogmatic stupidity in the way of a right to work/study from home in many places...

What is the point of only testing flights from China if "we have to live" with the virus ? If-at best-passengers might be "advised" to isolate...Eventough a basic -insane- idea is "catching the virus would provide immunity"...wich by now should be clear is simply wrong ! People can get CoViD over and over again...people may catch several variants causing more mutations/recombinations...exponential growth...

RTÉ News

@rtenews
·
Exclusive footage filmed by RTÉ News shows the cramped and potentially unsafe conditions inside some of the country's overcrowded emergency departments. The secretly recorded material shows patients and staff navigating very challenging settings | Read: https://bit.ly/3VP6hi1

DJ-From Ireland...corridors full with patients, shortage of masks ???? 

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data daily UK cases now under 200,000 per day based on self reporting...however;