Looming outbreak in Dallas - How many?

12 to 14days 30 plus

WHAT TO DO????

there's gonna be a few more cases

looks like members of the clean up crew might be showing up in the ER soon

News chopper caught Ebola clean-up crew; Um. Notice anything missing?

http://www.blacklistednews.com/News_chopper_caught_Ebola_clean-up_crew%3B_Um._Notice_anything_missing%3F/38354/0/38/38/Y/M.html

I would vote for 4-9 but aparently we only get one vote per ip address and Technophobe beat me to it.

I think that they may be surprised to find some occurances that are not concomitant with the ones they expect there to be, as out of that hundred, presumably, there are schoolchildren, who, in the time before the CDC acted, would have had physical contact with hundreds, possibly thousands, of others, certainly several classroomsfull in 4 separate schools and their teachers, janitors, dinnerladies, etc.. Classrooms are a hub of infection.

I like Ike

WillobyBrat wrote:

I would vote for 4-9 but aparently we only get one vote per ip address and Technophobe beat me to it.

Good post WilloyBrat. I agree your mom is pretty quick. Can't do anything about the I.P. block on votes. It didn't used to be that way, but upgrades on overall spam controls, etc... anyway, you can do another vote from a phone, but you didn't hear it here. Handshake

https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk

I'm going to guess 12 in the next week to 10 days.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.

My guess is 3

WillobyBrats mum? He is my husband, Albert, and 16 years my senior!

Or are you admitting all men are little boys at heart? Wink

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.

Thanks Albert. "Mummy's" got one of those little flat phones that she carries round in her pocket. The last time I used a phone it had a dial on it and was in a big red box on our street corner. LOL

I don't think I will steal her one. I'm still trying to get over the beating I got for calling her my squaw on our voting papers. Ouch

I like Ike

I put 1-3

My bet that the 100 contacts will include many who were not close enough but investigators probably cast a wide net. However, I bet there were many that aren't included like in the thread on the parametics who drove the ambulance on next shifts before the ambulance quarantined, the guys without ppe using the power washer on the puke thread (where the lady is standing in the water) in the picture, or some other random thing like through the fly's that would have landed in his puke. But of the 100 1-3

pfffft

nothing

storm in a tea cup

And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.

jacksdad wrote:

I was wondering when Albert was going to get it in the neck for that one

I wasn't going to be the one to say anything! I thought yikes that could get a little awkward. LOL! Maybe it's the Brat part.

13 to 20 within 20 days.Johnray1

Holy moly! There's a case of Ebola in the U.S.!

That first reaction was understandable. There's no question the disease is scary. The World Health Organization now estimates that the virus has killed about 70 percent of people infected in West Africa.

The Ebola case in Dallas is the first one diagnosed outside Africa, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday. And the health care system in Texas didn't quarantine the man right away. He was sick with Ebola — and contagious — for four days before he was admitted to the hospital.

But when you look at health officials responding to the case in Dallas, they seem cool as cucumbers, despite the initial misstep.

"I have no doubt that we will control this importation, or case, of Ebola so that it does not spread widely in this country," said the director of the CDC, Dr. Tom Frieden.

Why is Frieden so sure this virus won't spread beyond a handful of cases?

It boils down to something called "R0."

The reproduction number, or "R nought," is a mathematical term that tells you how contagious an infectious disease is. Specifically, it's the number of people who catch the disease from one sick person, on average, in an outbreak.*

Take, for example, measles. The virus is one of the most contagious diseases known to man. It's R0 sits around 18. That means each person with the measles spreads it to 18 people, on average, when nobody is vaccinated. (When everyone is vaccinated, the R0 drops to essentially zero for measles).

At the other end of the spectrum are viruses like HIV and hepatitis C. Their R0s tend to fall somewhere between 2 and 4. They're still big problems, but they spread much more slowly than the measles.

And that brings us back to Ebola. Despite its nasty reputation, the virus's R0 really isn't that impressive. It typically sits around 1.5 to 2.0.

Even in the current epidemic in West Africa, where the virus has been out of control, each person who has gotten sick has spread Ebola to only about two others, on average.

Why is that?

Many factors contribute to the R0, such as how long you're infectious** and how many virus particles are needed to make another person sick.

But in Ebola's case, the mode of transmission probably helps keep its R0 low. Ebola isn't spread through the air, like the measles or flu. It requires close contact with some bodily fluid, such as blood or vomit, containing the virus.

Now at this point, you're probably thinking, "OK. But an R0 of 2 is nothing to brush off." You're right. R0 of 2 means one person infects two people, who then infect four people, then eight, 16, 32 — the numbers go up fast.

But that isn't likely to happen in a place with a good public health system, like the U.S. Why? Because people with Ebola aren't contagious until they show symptoms.

So to stop the chain of transmission, all health workers in Texas have to do is get the people possibly infected by the sick man into isolation before these people show signs of Ebola.

Then R0 drops to zero. And Texas is free of Ebola.

*We're talking the "basic" R0 here, for all you epidemiologists. So, the R0 that you get when everyone in the population is susceptible to the disease.

**The R0 is integrated over the time that a person is infectious to others. For HIV, this could be years. But for Ebola, that time is only about a week. So even though they have similar R0s, Ebola's infections per unit of time is much higher than HIV's.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/10/02/352983774/no-seriously-how-contagious-is-ebola?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=science

and jen147 that diagram is pretty scary. it seems like the r0 should be higher at the speed it is spreading...

weird
scary and weird

if you have found my missing unicorn stop taking the pills and consult professor sprout immediately

Poll Question: Out of the 100 contacts in Dallas being - How many will be positive?
Vote	Poll Choice	Votes	Poll Statistics
	1-3	11	[27.50%]
	4-9	16	[40.00%]
	10- 15	2	[5.00%]
	!5 +	11	[27.50%]