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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Mexico & Peru

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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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    Posted: July 02 2021 at 7:45pm

Of all the Covid Variants - Mexican & Peru variants frightens me the most.


Why?


10% death rate


U.S.605,30833,692,920

Brazil521,95218,687,469

India400,31230,458,251

Mexico233,2482,525,350

Peru192,6872,057,554



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Technophobe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2021 at 2:09am

Nice catch, Kilt!

Well I say nice: nice vigilance from you.  Well spotted!

But there is nothing nice about that!  10%‽‽‽

I should think that would scare anyone with a brain.

Do you have a link to that article, please?

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2021 at 2:43am

Techno-when you look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ one could look for cases/deaths...Mexico reporting 2,5 million cases-233,500 deaths almost=getting close to 10% CFR...Peru 2,060,000 cases+ with almost 193,000 deaths also close to 10% CFR...

India (under)reporting 30 million+ cases with "just" 400,000+ deaths, Brazil close to 18,7 million cases under reported-"just" 522,000+ deaths...CFR in both countries very likely also much closer to 10% would see India with 3 million deaths, Brazil almost 1,9 million deaths...Since a lot of cases were not tested, reported, included the real numbers for those countries must be higher...

If the 10% CFR for Brazil and India would be realistic these two countries would have more then the "official" just under four million deaths in "official statistics"...

When one would take 0,2 % of the population died from Covid-one would get close to the same 8 million total...Peru is reporting 5,770 deaths per million=0,577 % of all its population that died-if a more realistic number would be 0,5% of global population so far dying from Covid one gets close to 40 million deaths...

My take is it must be somewhere in between-tending to the higher number (since so much under reporting, lack of testing-most of that in Africa where there is no basic population administration-births/deaths etc.)- so 30 million deaths worldwide so far ? 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2021 at 4:32am

Josh,  we are concerned. We are in isolation.  Our brief fun outside with masks and gloves on ME163 and Vicki is over.   We have better protection than  many hospitals.  Insurance Company is really doing good for us.  We are concerned about Mexico.  We have family in Mexico.  I know the figures are wrong. it's much worse than that.  Family has told us about the quick deaths, lack of oxygen and poor health services.   The authorities won't tell the truth.  One of our cousins is a casket maker.  He is swamped.  Figures are lies ,  This is going to be the equal of the 1918 Flu pandemic.  Death is going to take a lot of poor people.



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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2021 at 11:06pm

ME163;

-Fossil fuel and wood prices are very high...In the wishfull thinking media/economy it is related to a (not existing) post pandemic boom...But maas funerals, cremations are at least part of prices going up...

-Politics is still in denial, experts keep getting it wrong...In stead of admitting they have been wrong a lot of times during this pandemic they "rather go blind" ignore what they do not want to see, hear, know...

The basic idea was "humans above nature"...not part of nature..."We" did see ourselves as always in control, "big" while we are just very small, guests on a planet that houses millions of species not just humans...

If I would  have guests that would behave the way humans destroy the planet the live on I would kick them out of my house high speed...

We are here only for a very short time...knowing only very little...we should be more humble...respect nature and creation...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2021 at 4:45am

Why do you all still do this. You can not compare CFR   Have you been to Peru and Mexico?  Their health care is some of the worst in the world!!!  Those case fatality rates are high due to lack of health care and high percentage of smoking!!!

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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2021 at 5:04pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Nice catch, Kilt!

Well I say nice: nice vigilance from you.  Well spotted!

But there is nothing nice about that!  10%‽‽‽

I should think that would scare anyone with a brain.

Do you have a link to that article, please?


Whatever the reason 10% is extreme


here is the link

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-cases-world-map/

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ksc View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2021 at 1:00am

It's highly unlikely those numbers are correct. The CFR will always look higher in those countries that have limited testing. Even in the countries with the highest amount of testing, a large percentage of cases go untested. Comparing the numbers across the world is a fruitless endeavor, even more fruitless now that countries are at different stages of vaccination.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2021 at 3:58am

When I lokk at highest numbers of cases per million on [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ I end up around 150,000 cases per million-15% of the population testing positive for a limited number of countries. 

Peru reported close 62,000 cases per million, Mexico even under 20,000 cases per million...So both countries proberbly missing "a lot of" cases. 

Mexico is reporting 1,793 deaths per million of its population. Peru is much higher 5,780 deaths per million...If you would take deaths per million as a basis Peru is #1...Mexico #22...UK, US, Brazil, most of Europe reporting more deaths per million in the population...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2021 at 6:37pm
Where deaths have occurredDeathsCases
U.S.605,56733,722,558

Brazil525,11218,792,511

India402,72830,585,229

Mexico233,6222,540,068

Peru193,2302,065,113

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2021 at 9:58pm

From the above figures the Case Fatality Rate is

USA     1.80%

Brazil    2.79%

India     1.32%

Mexico  9.20%

Peru     9.36%


Probably some of the high figures are due to lack of wide spread testing of non-serious cases.  There is another measure that should give a better indicator which is the  Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), but that means one needs to have a good estimate of the actual number of cases and not limit it to just the laboratory confirmed tests.

In an ideal world the CFR and the IFR will be the same, and the figures should converge as the rate of testing gets higher

Of the five countries in the list the USA has the most tests per population ratio at 1.5 tests / person, next is Peru at 0.4 tests / person, then India at 0.3 tests/person, Brazil at 0.25 tests/person and finally Mexico at 0.06 tests/person.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 06 2021 at 4:46pm

No its the new Lambda varian - hell on wheels - I spotted it


The Lambda variant was first detected in Peru in December 2020 and is now responsible for more than 80 per cent of the country's cases.

It has since been spotted in the UK, US and Germany, as well as in Australia.

There are also fears the infectious variant could be harder to tackle with inoculation.

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/coronavirus/feared-lambda-covid-variant-which-could-be-more-infectious-than-delta-is-recorded-in-australia/news-story/23a8d388815c6898f1d407acb5168a5f

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 07 2021 at 5:50am

Thank you, Kilt.


You are right Usk, the test and trace facilities in South American countries are not fit for purpose and this does make a direct comparison pointless.  

But the whole purpose of this site is to be pre-prepared.  So when information like this emerges, we want to know it.  If it turns out to be nothing (as usual) then we have lost nothing, but if it does turn out to be nasty, or nastier, we are ahead of the game.  This is who we are.  I am now the proud owner of a pair of oxygen-concentrators which are unused.  But I would rather have them and not need them, than not have them and need them.  My preps store has stood me in good stead many times - and saved many friends in hard times.

Yes, it is a little early to draw conclusions on this one, but the links provided (which are reputable) suggest it is mesurably nastier - even than the Delta strain.  It is here in the UK too.  I'm glad I knew about that early on as well, even more glad than I am about knowing the concerns over the effacy of PfizerBiontech's vaccine - which look to be all about the ability to prevent transmission rather than active disease, which I already suspected..

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 07 2021 at 3:32pm

So, this means that we made errors in our opening up plans ?  What advice do you give us.  Vicki, ME163, Jill and Becky. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 07 2021 at 4:21pm

You already did the most important thing, you got vaccinated.


Isolation is difficult and destroys most of your life, so doing that has to be a personal choice.  Wearing masks in public, meeting outside and keeping windows open when you have visitors all reduce viral load in transmission cases.  That is vital, as it gives the immune system time to mount its defences.  Keep your vitamin D levels up as well.


If you get offred booster shots, grab them like a shot too.

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 07 2021 at 4:52pm

The Lambda strain was first detected in Peru, and now accounts for 81 per cent of COVID-19 cases in the South American country —which has the highest COVID-19 fatality rate in the world.

It has spread to nearly 30 countries in the last four weeks, prompting the World Health Organisation to label it a “variant of interest”.


And it has also been found in Australia, in a returned traveller who was housed in a NSW hotel in April.


https://thewest.com.au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-crisis-researchers-fear-lambda-variant-more-vicious-than-delta-strain-ng-b881923172z

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 07 2021 at 9:04pm

Thank you Techno 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 08 2021 at 3:58am

A little update on Mexico, our cousin  has run our of caskets.  He is swamped with 60 more caskets to make.  It is going to be bad., real bad.  Lucky for us in morbid way, he did our caskets last year.  I am blessed to know that if we go we go in style.   We love our dear cousin and have sent him some supplies.  He has no PPE so we sent him some..  In thanks we got our caskets last year when things took a dark turn.  We pray that nobody gets this horrible sickness.  Both of us were on death's doorstep.  I think our expert nursing care and our insane and brave doctors saved us.  If any of you have family that are stupid enough not to get a shot, show them our story. We hope you are all well today. 

much love to you all, 





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