Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
More proof of a mild Flu spreading |
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Posted: January 06 2006 at 3:01pm |
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Avian Flu Transmission to Humans May Be Higher Than Thought
A new study suggests that there is an association between direct contact with dead or sick poultry and flu-like illness in humans and that the transmission is probably more common than expected, according to a new study in the Jan. 9, 2006 issue of Archives of Internal Medicine. Anna Thorson, MD, PhD, from the Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm, Sweden, and colleagues analyzed data from household interviews conducted in FilaBavi, a Vietnamese demographic surveillance site in Bavi district, northwest Vietnam, with confirmed outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry, subtype H5N1. The researchers included 45,478 randomly selected people in the district to answer screening questions about exposure to poultry and flu-like illnesses (defined as a combination of cough and fever). The study was performed from April 1 to June 30, 2004. As background information, the authors explain that in Vietnam, an epidemic of HPAI in poultry, subtype H5N1, has been ongoing since 2003, despite efforts by the government to eliminate the diseased birds from flocks. In addition to being an important source of income, poultry is kept by many rural households for subsistence farming. The current epidemic in poultry is thus not only a public health problem but also an economic drawback for the many Vietnamese who live in rural areas. The researchers note the Vietnam is the country hardest hit by the ongoing H5N1 epidemic, with 87 confirmed human cases of HPAI (with 38 deaths) and 1,838 verified outbreaks in poultry in July 2005. In this study, the researchers found a total of 8,149 individuals (17.9 percent) reported flu-like illness, 38,373 persons (84.4 percent) lived in households keeping poultry, and 11,755 (25.9 percent) resided in households reporting sick or dead poultry. The researchers report that having poultry in the household was not a risk factor for developing a flu-like illness, but having direct contact with sick or dead poultry produced the highest risk for flu-like illness. Low socioeconomic status, female sex, and young or old age were also risk factors for the disease, they note. The researchers estimate that between 650 and 750 cases could be attributed to direct contact with sick or dead poultry. Our results from a large epidemiological population-based study in an area with an ongoing epidemic of HPAI in poultry are consistent with a higher incidence of HPAI among humans than has been recognized previously. The results suggest that the symptoms most often are relatively mild and that close contact is needed for transmission to humans, the authors conclude. Reference: Arch Intern Med. 2006;166: 119-123. http://www.infectioncontroltoday.co...1152211735.html |
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Eventually I am going to be proven to be right. I hope that it is sooner than later.
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Johnson
Valued Member Joined: January 06 2006 Status: Offline Points: 10 |
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This data would suggest the mortality rate of H5N1 to be significantly less than what's been reported. Intuitively, it would only make sense that those with mild symptoms would have never sought out medical care in the first place (especially in a third world county), thus keeping the denominator artificially low....and possibly orders of magnitude low.
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Johnson, glad to see another convinced that this might not be all that bad.
Any death is bad, but I keep hoping that the projected death toll for this "pandemic" is not much more worse than normal flu. When I posted that on Current Events, they consistently threw my posts into their dungeon. On this board the posts are allowed to stand. I guess they believe in free speech here. Yippie! Must be an all American board that SophiaZoe is running here. Good for her. |
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Avian flu less lethal than thought
There was some comforting news on avian flu in major medical journals this week, suggesting that while the virus may travel from poultry to people more commonly than previously believed, it is not likely to be as lethal as researchers have thought. A team from the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm has reported in the Archives of Internal Medicine that contact with sick or dead birds may result in a large number of people infected with a mild form the virus. If these researchers are correct, predictions about a bird flu pandemic could be off the mark. http://www.indianexpress.com/print.php?content_id=85876 |
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Efficient
Transmission of H5N1 to Humans in Turkey
Recombinomics Commentary January 15, 2006 The lack of new cases and the seeming absence of secondary cases -- people infected through exposure to human cases, not poultry -- is suggestive that the H5N1 virus's ability to infect people hasn't changed, WHO officials said. The above comments lack a scientific rationale. In Turkey a large number of patients were hospitalized with bird flu symptoms. The patients were from large familial clusters and the number of familial clusters has been large. These data alone signal an increased efficiency in the ability of H5N1 to infect people, regardless of source, which could be birds or humans. This increased ability is supported by two genetic changes, the HA S227N (also called S223N), which allows for more efficient recognition of binding sites on epithelial cells that line the human respiratory tract, and PB2 E627K, a change that allows H5N1 to grow at lower temperature (34 C), which is the temperature inside a human nose outside in the winter. The presence of both changes in the same virus has not been previously reported. S227N is in two isolates (Hong Kong/212/2003 and Hong Kong/213/2003) from Hong Kong visitors to Fujian Province in 2003. However, neither isolate has PB2 E627K. At least one isolate from northern Vietnam in 2005 (VN/JP12-2/05) has the change, but neither that sequence nor the associated PB2 sequence has been made public. However S227N has been limited to human isolate(s) in Vietnam. In Turkey, the true picture of H5N1 infections is clouded by false negatives and limitations in testing of advanced patients. The first four suspects, the Kocigit siblings, all tested negative by PCR testing of nose and throat swabs. Three patients have died, and subsequent testing of lung samples have been positive. One isolate, from the oldest brother, has been obtained and fully sequenced. The sequence identified the S227N change and the explosion of cases in Turkey strongly suggests the change is present in the wild bird population. The true number of H5N1 patients is not publicly known. The fourth Kocigit sibling has been discharged, but he is still officially H5N1 negative, even though he had the same symptoms as his siblings and was clearly infected with H5N1. However, because no lung samples were collected, he remains H5N1 negative. These data pose serious questions about additional patients that are hospitalized with symptoms. Another family (Ozcan) from Dogubyazit, had at least 10 family members hospitalized. Two, 3 year-old Yusuf Ozcan and 9-year old Aysegul Ozcan had been placed in the ICU in critical condition and both have tested positive for H5N1. However, at least 8 other family members were also hospitalized and none have been H5N1 confirmed. Recently four additional Ozcan patients from Dogubyazit were hospitalized. Two of them, 12 year-old Fatma Ozcan and 5 year-old Muhammet Ozcan are in critical condition in the ICU and have not been confirmed to be H5N1. Their relationship to the Ozcans admitted a week earlier is unknown. The relationship of many patients in the Van hospital are not known. Large numbers of patients have the same last name and media reports indicate that patients with teh same name are related. However, these relationships have not been disclosed in WHO updates, which usually provide disease onset dates, admission dates, and relationships to other suspect or hospitalized cases. The report describing the H5N1 positive Ozcan siblings noted their age and gender, but provided no data on disease onset dates or hospital admission dates. Moreover, the report did not note that at least 8 family members were hospitalized in the same hospital. The description of the five patients confirmed the following day did not even give age and gender. The only information for those five H5N1 positive patients was their province. The patient confirmed at Van was 18 year-old Nesime Mumak. The WHO report failed to indicate her cousin, 8 year0old Sumeyya Mumak, was in the same hospital and had been H5N1 confirmed a few days earlier. She was the third patient confirmed in Turkey. The first two were two of the fatal cases of the oldest Kocigit siblings. The failure to report disease onset dates and relationships to suspect or H5N1 confirmed relatives is cause for concern. The disease onset dates are important in determining human-to-human transmission. Such horizontal transmission in families usually is associated with a gap in disease onset. In past cases in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia, and China, disease onset dates were provided in updates of H5N1 confirmed cases. That data were glaringly absent in the cases in Turkey. Data from prior clusters show a 5-10 day gap in almost every familial cluster, indicating all or most are examples of horizontal transfer between humans. Although such data has not been provided in WHO reports, media reports suggest similar gaps between onset dates are present in the clusters from Turkey. Such gaps would be expected, since H5N1 is clearly efficiently transmitted to humans based on the number of confirmed cases, the number of suspected case, the size of the clusters, and the number of clusters. There largest number of confirmed cases has been from the Van hospital. Seven of the eight confirmed cases were in familial (Kocigit, Ozcan, Mumak) clusters. In addition to the seven confirmed cases, there are at least 13 other patients hospitalized at Van with the above three last names. H5N1 transmission to humans is clearly more efficient in Turkey, and the large number of family members confirmed or hospitalized is cause for concern. WHO has announced a plan to gather extensive epidemiological and laboratory data on citizens in Turkey. This data should be collected and made public, along with relevant information on hospitalized patients, as soon as possible. |
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This evil flu virus appears to be dumbing down.
We are not below the 1% fatality rate, but it appears we are working towards it. Prayer helps. |
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KOMET163
Admin Group Joined: January 15 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 278 |
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I really hate to burst your bubbles, however a less lethal flu is actually the worst kind. It allows for surviours to become carriers and to spread the flu. Also, even with a 1 % mortality rate, that means a lot of people dying of the flu, given the fact that only 50 % will actually contract the flu.
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What you say is true. Fortunately, when a flu "milds down" the
mortality rate eventually falls to about .01 percent or lower.
That is tolerable compared to 50% fatalities.
H1N1, Spanish Flu killed an estimated 100 million H1N1, the mild flu kills very few. It is still endemic in China. H2N2, the mild flu made a reappearance last year but has killed nobody that I know of, yet Asian Flu was a killer in the Fifties. H3N2, the mild flu kills about 30,000 annually in the United States. That is .0001% of our population (one ten thousandth). It is mostly the elderly that die, so the loss is not as frightening to the general population. With this new strain of Bird flu, it is mostly the YOUNG that die and that is frightening to the populace. The young are the future. |
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plainsman
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Didn't I read somewhere that the first wave would be a mild flu?
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This is good news in India...I'm not so sure about the first two posts & studies. I'm sick right now with a mild flu and I've NEVER been around birds - so can I be included in the study? What would have convinced me is the testing for H5N1 antibodies....EVERYBODY gets the human flu, and maybe that is all these people had. There is no proof that the people had been exposed to H5N1 or even contracted a mild form of it. Joe, I hope your predictions are right - but as the experts have said if it's not this one, it will be another. I think people should continue to prep for any disaster, including a nuclear war...if we survive the land and water will be contaminated and being prepared will be a means of being able to deal with the psychological and physical after affects. |
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This could also be the normal flu of which is a bit nastier than the usual strain. Perhaps even the normal flu will soon cause pandemics? It looks like we're getting false positives now.
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FlulessinDC
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Joe, I agree with you; we can hope and pray that the avian flu is becoming less virulent, and that it will evolve to a strain that presents only the same degree of threat as the regular seasonal flu. Counterbalancing that hope, though, is the utter failure so far of any clinicians in southeast Asia to find existing H5N1 antibodies in serologic studies of the population there. It seems as though there would be serologic evidence of people having successfully fought off the milder infections, with the antibodies extant in their bloodstreams. Personally, I think we are still too much in the dark to tell - but I'm keeping my fingers crossed anyway... ~Fluless |
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No plan of battle ever survives contact with the enemy.
Heinz Guderian Plans are nothing; planning is everything. Dwight D. Eisenhower |
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Boy Nikita, I had given up fearing a nuclear war. I grew up in
the Fifties (born 1948) when we had all of those monthly "Duck and
Cover Drills."
It was trained into us, "The Damned Communists want to destroy us and will resort to anything to remove the United States from the ranks of nations, and that includes a surprise nuclear attack on all of our cities at one time." My neighbors built fall out shelters. I had visions as a ten year old of getting a rifle and shooting the Russian soldiers when they arrived to drive us survivors into slave labor camps like we had been told about in public school. Then, the Berlin Wall came tumbling down (I have a big chunk of it as a conversation piece) and Communism soon collapsed in Europe and I stopped fearing. I have food stores, but I refuse to do the fallout shelter thing again. |
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Falcon
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 684 |
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link don't work :(
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endman
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Well Joe looks like you will have to think twice about solders taking you to the labor slave camps. It just could be the US solders with rifles. Taking you to the medical death camps because we in US dont have any cure for the BF. No Tamyflu for the masses just rollover and die.
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slcmom
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What Komet says is true. To be particularly dangerous on a global level, a virus should be new to humans so there are no developed antibodies. This will create a "high" kill rate. However, the virus can not kill so effectively that it eliminates the carriers. This is why ebola will never be a global epidemic. It kills too efficiently. Alternatively, the Spanish flu only had a kill rate of 2.5%-5%. H2H with the Avian flu will likely occur when an individual with Influenza A or B also contracts Avian flu. Flu viruses are promiscuous and will tend to share DNA. So in essence the normal flu could cause--or at least contribute to--a pandemic. |
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plainsman
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Found it: "There were three waves of pandemic influenza occurring in less than 12 months. In the first wave, which occurred in the spring of 1918 the attack rate was 50%, but the mortality rate was not high. The second wave, which came in the autumn, was also characterised by high attack rates but very high mortality rates. The peak death rates from this lethal second wave happened to be in the 20-40 year age group, precisely the age group that would presumably have spent more time breathing the external virus-laden air in the course of their hectic social activities and working habits." The first wave of H2H was mild. The second wave was the killer. |
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A flu virus can recombine/mutate away from being a virulent killer as well as recombine/mutate towards being more lethal. It is always the less lethal strain that survives over the years. |
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So when they're putting people with suspected BF, into Isolation wards,are they keeping them apart from each other?? Or are they in the same rooms, cause that'll mix up the BF with the normal flu.being that they are promiscuous.
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plainsman
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I would think they would be to sick to be promiscuous.
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The height of flu season is starting to kick in. It's in Europe right now and I would guess it will be here in a few days. With flu season making its final big run, I wonder if this could be the "match" that ignites the H2H explosion. You would think that if H5N1 was going to recombine - at all -it would do it over the next few days with flu season setting in, if not right now. If H5N1 has the ability to shift into a human form, we're about to find out. This next week could get interesting. |
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Albert...my thoughts exactly, especially with Africa being so out of control. My sister keeps saying next flu season but she hasn't been reading the articles posted on this like I have. I hope, but to me the sudden spread of H5N1 during the regular flu season just doesn't equal good news. Joe - yeah I thought the threat of nukes was over many years ago, not just Russia we have to worry about, it's Russia, Iran and China becoming allies and wanting to nuke Israel off of the map. the new psychotic president of Iran (who re-opened nuke facilities) talks very openly about destroying Israel and its 'Infidel' supporters...the West, or the US. Yep, scary man that one is, probably not quite as predictable as the Bird Flu and much more dangerous. |
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I don't know whether to be happy or depressed with Joe's news. WHAT in the world am I going to do with all those maks...... Well, at least I don't have to buy any more soup and water.......the people at the checkout were starting to look at me strangely. Well.....now that the threat has diminished, we can all sigh with relief and have a worry free summer. And as for nuclear war, THAT is one fear that never materializes. People were saying it was imminent back when I was a child.........many decades ago. Anyone wanna buy some N95 masks?? Edited by marzinn |
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endman
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It looks to me like the chemotherapy for the World. In order to kill all the worlds ills we need to sicken the whole world just a little.
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Wouldn't this be the answer! I sure hope so, at least now there is a little hope.
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calendula
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This blog site its starting to behave like some governments agencies, they post whatever they want and quickly erase what they do not want to hear.........
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I am not here to reason, I am here to create"
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So I gather you are not buying the H5N1 "mild form",eh? If I may ask, why not? Do you think it's some anti panic ploy by the government, some sort of control mechanism? i.e. when the masses start to panic, order and control break down.
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Did you all read the radio broadcast under news? Ella posted the highlights from the broadcast with WHO members. Sounds like this virus is being tracked fairly closely, and they never once used the world 'mild'. They used words like; 'deadly'. I believe they called it the Spanish Flu's kissing cousin...so I'll listen to the pro's vs. what a little study here & there says. Maybe this is the calm before the storm??? Just don't put those masks in the yard sell pile just yet.
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Spoon
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I completely agree! Joe, I hope you're right, but my gut tells me this pandemic will top 1918. |
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It's not so much the apocalypse... but the credit card bills ;-)
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You're right, Nikita..........WHO says this virus is of apocolyptic proportions, then Joe comes up with the study that says it's no worse than the regular flu. Who are we to believe? Should we all start eating that Beefaroni and using our masks to do auto body work or not..............
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I think its early days in understanding this virus's it is a moving target but I doubt it is a mild flu and I think it been around longer than people realize
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I don't want to rain on anybody's parade, and I'm not a virologist, so take this for what it's worth.
You've got at least 4 distinct strains of H5N1 spreading worldwide. Millions of infected hosts (birds) and a handful of people. Perhaps other mammals (swine, dogs, cats), too. The number of `incubators' is growing each day. In each of these incubators the virus replicates and in doing so, subtle changes or mutations occur. Most of these mutations go nowhere. Some, no doubt, increase the lethality or communicability, some decrease it. Most do nothing to change the virus either way. If a host bird in India produces a mutated `mild flu', it does not keep a hog in Nigeria from producing a mutated high pathogen H2H strain. True, if a `mild flu' goes H2H we will (hopefully) pick up some resistance to a `severe form' if it develops. But these concurrent mutations are independant of each other, and what happens in one location (or host) does not affect what happens in another. Simply put, finding a `mild flu' in India, or anywhere else, doesn't preclude the development of a pandemic strain someplace else. Personally, I don't expect the CFR to remain anywhere near the 50% we've been seeing. But I accept the idea that H5N1 will likely be with us for years, perhaps decades, and as long as it is in the wild, or endemic in humans, it still has the potential to throw a few surprises our way. |
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stardust
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Well however it does turn out, Iwill be prepared. This is new behavior for me. I'm glad I'm stocked up on items. There have been some pretty wild events in recent years. Some would label them as "Biblical". If it's not Avian Flu it might be something else. Even something as simple as needing surgery and not being able to work for a couple of months. That happened to me once. Things would have been easier if I had been stocked up. I just think that what we have been doing is a positive no matter what. |
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"Prepping is Power"!
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Dualis
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I read something this morning about the multiple mutations of the virus happening globally are to be expected. It is definitely incouraging that the Indian version maybe more mild than some of the possiblities that we have been playing with. In all the people that I talk to about the coming pandemic, I tell them I want nothing more than to be wrong. But this flu is still something to be taken seriously. Just like the times we try to catch a stupid fly that was bugging us so bad... but is suddenly gone ... we hope it stays gone... It comes a-buzzing the moment we let our guard down |
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Yeah YEAH Fla_Medic!!!! With the experts saying 'we are past due'...it's almost as if I'm hearing 'past-due and it's going to be a doosy'. Viruses in general are becoming more aggressive - something deadly aggressive that we can't see coming our way... I know I'm ready and I don't care how much money I've spent - I will keep my stock-pile for the years to come and just use/renew as I go. If I never have to use it then praise the Lord, if I do then praise the Lord :) I think this is probably one of the best investments I've made. I know my 401K won't save me in the event of a natural disaster. |
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There is a new article that states: Virus samples taken from wild birds found dead in Hong Kong recently were closely linked to a strain of the H5N1 virus that surfaced in Japan and South Korea in 2004, but not the one spreading in Europe, a top scientist said. I am wondering if this "mild strain" is an entirely different strain from either the European or Hong Kong strains. (Also taking a leap of faith that India is being truthful.) As Fla_Medic stated, there are at least 4 strains that have currently been identified (and I think I read somewhere that they had recently increased that number to 5). I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but I would like to see what virus strain India is encountering. We may also see another totally different strain mutating out of Africa in the future. Time will tell..... |
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The way I'm thinking about this whole mutation thing is by comparing it to a low probability event.
Since I'm an incorrigable poker player, I'll use that. The odds of shuffling a deck of cards and dealing a royal flush off the top of the deck is roughly 1 in 640,000. The odds of dealing a specific royal flush (ie of Spades) is about 1 in 2.5 million. Not great odds. Some players go a lifetime and never get dealt one. I've had 4 in the past 3 years, but then I play a lot of poker. Let's assume (in simplistic terms) that every host that acquires the H5N1 virus has the opportunity to `reshuffle' the deck thru mutation (doesn't have to happen, but can). Let's also assume that the `magic combination to go H2H is a royal flush. A highly Pathogenic H2H requires a royal spade Flush, while other suits produce lesser mortality rates. Everytime a new host shuffles the deck, the odds of hitting the flush do not change. BUT, the more hosts shuffling, the greater the odds that one of them will hit the right combination. What are the odds of hitting the right combo? I've no idea. But I do know, the more hosts shuffling, the greater the odds that it will happen. It's highly likely the right combination has already been dealt, but the virus was not in a good situation to transmit itself to another host. No matter, with millions of birds, swine, and other hosts out there, the right combination will come up. Hopefully, one of the lower CFR royal flushes will come up first, and we will acquire some degree of immunity. But next week, or next month, or 5 years from now, another deadly hand will be dealt. The only way to avoid a pandemic is that we come up with a vaccine, we acquire immunity from a low path strain, or the virus slowly mutates itself into oblivion. Edited by Fla_Medic |
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New article about India: "According to official sources, 12 people have been tested positive in Maharashtra. http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1632858,001300820000. htm
Article about Indonesia entitled, "One dead and 7 in the hospital": http://www.asianage.com/main.asp?layout=2&cat1=3&cat 2=34&newsid=210143&RF=DefaultMain
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fritz
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Fla-Medic I just wanted to tell you that I really do enjoy reading your posts. They are fact based, sensible, user friendly with just the right amount of humor mixed in and never alarmist with sirens blasting. I'm glad your a prepper!! I do find myself singing that sometimes..... talk about scary!
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"I am only one; but still I am one, I cannot do everything, but still I can do something. I will not refuse to do the something I can do." -- Hellen Keller
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LOL, sorry about the theme song. Give it a few years, it will pass.
I've always found humor to be the best defense in any situation, no matter how dire. As long as we can find something ironic, or absurd, or just downright funny in something, it can't be all that bad. Glad you enjoy my posts. Thanks. |
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Falcon
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I don't know if this ones been posted or yet but I do have some comments on this one article I just found.
I'm reading this article and I can't help but notice that mice have been dieing from the H5N1 flu and I remembered thats what actually caused the spread of the black plaque, mice were carriers of the plaque or so it was proven, if this were true then you don't need to be around just birds anymore as mice has been proven in the past to actually carry these viruses into our homes. And it keeps saying the virus keeps mutating to adapt to its hosts. |
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mightymouse
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Joe and his Sechuan Sheet (sp.-1) seem to be dead on. And when it comes to mice - some would call that profiling.
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Nothing matters - Therefore everything matters
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Angel
Valued Member Joined: December 08 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 346 |
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Concerning mice and H5N1....makes me think of the Luthernian sailor (Baltic area) they suspected having bird flu and then reported he died from a heart attack. Maybe he didn't catch it from working as a cook cleanng poultry...he may have gotten it from mice aboard the ship. Mice would be where there is food on a ship.
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Angel
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