Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Nepal - 14 persons die unknown disease |
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With the new post that it is a rough and tumble part of the country, perhaps it is a bullet flu out break.
Major symptoms of the disease are bleeding from nose and mouth at the time of death
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My first thought when I read about the 14 people dying was they beat all those dogs to death because they knew the dogs had something and it was not have rabies!
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mamasjob
Valued Member Joined: May 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 192 |
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I am not sure what this is referring to....could you please elaborate? thanks
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Albert,
I just got home and I am reading this thread. I immediately thought back to the August 14th post you posted in response to my concerns. It was in the coming up thread in the discussion section. The description you posted there has stuck with me since I read it. This news story makes me wonder ...
Note: I found this web site with a reference.
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pugmom
Valued Member Joined: March 28 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 415 |
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could be Congo hemorrhagic fever. probably not H5N1 as no pneumonia component. Turkey just had an outbreak where more than 20 people died.
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jpc
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Pugmom, although you may be right, I am not sure that hemorrhagic fever is commonly found in dogs and chickens, or if it's lethal to animals in general. We're still not sure of the accuracy of the initial report. |
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pugmom
Valued Member Joined: March 28 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 415 |
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I googled it--domesticated animals are both the vector and the reservoir for the virus.
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jpc
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Is it deadly to animals? Which animals did you find are the most common vector?
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NO |
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probably not H5N1 as no pneumonia component.
...................................................................................
In southern Vietnam, a four-year-old boy presented with severe diarrhea,
followed by seizures, coma, and death. The cerebrospinal fluid contained 1 white cell per cubic millimeter, normal glucose levels, and increased levels of protein (0.81 g per liter). The diagnosis of avian influenza A (H5N1) was established by isolation of the virus from cerebrospinal fluid, fecal, throat, and serum specimens. The patient's nine-year-old sister had died from a similar syndrome two weeks earlier. In both siblings, the clinical diagnosis was acute encephalitis. Neither patient had respiratory symptoms at presentation. These cases suggest that the spectrum of influenza H5N1 is wider than previously thought. |
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Welllll....we could be.
We may be helping to create it.
Does this info bother anyone?
........................................................................
Human infection by avian influenza A
KY Yuen
SSY Wong Excerpts-
Using the year 2005 as an example, theWHO has recommended changing from influenza A/
Fujian/411/2003(H3N2) to A/California/7/2004(H3N2) for vaccination purposes. Such changes are necessary
because the neutralising antibody titre of the general population induced by the older vaccine strain will not be sufficient to give good protection against the new strain. Antigenic shift All combinations of the 16 H and 9 N viral subtypes
are found in water fowl, whereas only H1 to 3 and N1 to 2 viral subtypes are commonly found in humans
with influenza. As a result of its segmented genome,
shuffling of gene segments can occur if two different subtypes of influenza A virus infect the same cell. For example, if a human H3N2 virus and an avian H5N1
virus co-infect a human or other member of a mammalian species, such an event can produce a novel H5N2 virus.
This novel virus can then be efficiently
transmitted from human to human because all or most
of the gene segments apart from H5 come from the human virus. Such genetic reassortment would lead to a major antigenic change, a so-called antigenic shift, which would mean that most of the global population would not have any effective neutralising antibodies ............................................................................................... So.... if we vaccinate the entire world with this ...
"...whereas only H1 to 3 and N1 to 2 viral subtypes
are commonly found in humans..." We may have a much higher chance of getting this...
"...a human H3N2 virus and an avian H5N1
virus co-infect a human or other member of a mammalian species, such an event can produce a novel H5N2 virus." .................................................................................................
The entire Planet is ...needing... to be vaccinated with combos of this...
H1 to 3 and N1 to 2 viral subtypes
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Anharra, I like the info, but the white highlighting hurts my eyes. Could you use another color? Thanks
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In both siblings, the clinical diagnosis was acute encephalitis. Neither patient had respiratory symptoms at presentation. These cases suggest that the spectrum of influenza H5N1 is wider than previously thought.
Anharra-this is the stuff I remember from reading "The Great Influenza", that there were so many different strainswith different symptoms, they thought they were dealing with different sicknesses across the country and world, and were often misdiagnosing it because of that. If they are only testing humans when there are sick birds in the area, how many are they missing just because they aren't testing. And how many are being missed because they have been labeled with some other illness? |
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?
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Annie, yes.
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.......................................................................................................
that there were so many different strainswith different symptoms, they thought they were dealing with different sicknesses across the country and world, and were often misdiagnosing it because of that.
............................................................................................
Influenza hangs out with some meanies....
GENETIC ENGINEERING OF
NEGATIVE STRAND RNA VIRUSES • INFLUENZA |
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Albert,
How reliable is Jim Henry as a news source? Thanks, Argyll.
Note: excellent way to rephrase the question, Albert. The source -- there's the key.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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How reliable is the source that originally reported this information, is the question.
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argyll,
Nearly all businesses and non profits have PR people that write their press releases, very common. A good thing to have folks know this resource for Avian flu discussions. |
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Couldn't let this one go by because I have done a fair amount of research on H5N1 that isn't in the lungs. Have posted concerning rectal swabs, systemic infection, organ involvement, and also noticed numerous cases with encephalitis. There are human mutated strains which have little or no lung involvement. |
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Although much needing a break, time to directly contact and research Jim Henry; if possible. Of course, if you know him well, and feel he is unreliable, that would save me some telephone mileage. |
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Just checked http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert.php?lang=eng this am for any updates. This event is no longer listed on the site.
I think we all got our wish and this is a false alarm. Would love to know how it got on hisz.rsoe to begin with as they are normally very reliable.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Sand, hisz.rsoe is obviously not reliable. They issued a hazard and then pulled it. They are as reliable as the rest of the foreign media. Maybe JH called them and found out that their info was no good and then made them pull it? Either way, hisz.rsoe is not an accurate source to check for future hazards.
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So who can we trust since Nepal News and Kathmandu Post were the reporting agencies? This happened in their backyard.
Should we only trust first hand observations from the news sources we know and trust? What if they are not allowed to report? This is frustrating. |
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I have a few questions.
1. Was this story pulled , and if so, who pulled it and why?
2. Is there a black out on news coming from there?
3. Do we have a comment yet from Jim Henry?
4. Might this be good news since it may not be true after all?
Regards, Argyll.
Just found this regarding the Chinese invovlement with bird flu. This seems to be an interesting article,
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This article is still posting on the web.
Note: The date listed-- August 20.
Note: just checked and this site is still coming up. Is this a reliable news source?
MedClinician: good idea -- we need to have an chinese interpreter call over there and confirm with the hospital. Would be neat to add a thread with foreign language interpreters to confirm stories -- all relevant languages.
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Ahhhh, the old blame game is on. So much for humanitarianism!
I am getting the feeling, and I cannot shake it, that we should still be watching this story...I could be very wrong, but I am sure that the initial story re: 14 people is still correct and its being "spun". |
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All hizroe info for the 18th and 19th is missing. Maybe they are having technical difficulties?
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Angie: that would explain a lot.
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Still waiting for a call from... Jim. And I am still scanning the Chinese media. A real plus would be someone with the resources to call the nearby hospital who speaks whatever language and simply ask - did 14 people die in your village. Getting frustrated enough to do this. I do not trust the media, and the internet even less. Obviously there is a nearby hospital. What is it and did this really happen. Pretty simple.
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And to think I do this for free. All right. I have contacted a photo
journalist who works for the Kathmandu paper and currently trying to
verify if this paper even exists anymore. I have yet been able to find
a copy of the original article referenced (hard copy on paper) and the
news service who this has "filtered up from" I cannot find the article
in this either.
About Nepalnews.com Welcome to Mercantile
Communications Pvt. Ltd. (www.mercantile.com.np), Durbar Marg, We obtain quality news in two ways. We have our own
professional correspondents, who are actively out in the field, to bring you
the latest breaking news. Then, we host a variety of different publications and
newspapers, in Nepali and English, which are daily, weekly, fortnightly,
monthly and bi-monthly. For this, we have paid for the copyrights to host at
Nepalnews.com (contrary to the popular belief that the different publications
are paying us to host their content). A superb indication of our commitment in this field is that
the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) recognizes us as the number one site
on news about Nepalnews.com offers its services to consumers free-of-charge and will derive its revenues from advertisers and e-commerce merchants. We pledge to provide the advertisers and the marketing community with the imperious proposition of reaching a highly targeted, self-segmenting audience of consumers at the time they are considering purchases. My photojournalist contact :Kantipur Publications - Covered the Nepalese Civil War, general news, culture, human interest, and sports at the local, national, and international levels for Nepal's largest media company. Photos featured daily in the following media:
Journal of the North Shore (circulation: 45,000) - Salem, MA. Photojournalist and reporter for this community, bi-weekly newspaper, located in a suburb of Boston. The Signal (circulation: 12,000) - Valencia, CA. Freelance photojournalist for the daily suburban Los Angeles newspaper. Freelance Photographer - New York City, NY On the web - My photographs have been featured in these news sites: eKantipur (the online edition of Kantipur Publications, read by over one million people around the world), Nepal Human Rights News, United We Blog Nepal, Phalano.com. Actor - speaking roles in theatrical motion pictures: Ron Howard's Ed-TV and George Wallace with Gary Sinise. As Albert has stated source is what is critical on this. It is not looking good so far. Since the story is already on the net, you are going to see bounce posts which mean nothing. I am trying to contact the man who wrote the article. ABOUT NEPAL FROM CIA FACTBOOK : In 1951, the Nepalese monarch ended the century-old system of rule by hereditary premiers and instituted a cabinet system of government. Reforms in 1990 established a multiparty democracy within the framework of a constitutional monarchy. A Maoist insurgency, launched in 1996, has gained traction and is threatening to bring down the regime, especially after a negotiated cease-fire between the Maoists and government forces broke down in August 2003. In 2001, the crown prince massacred ten members of the royal family, including the king and queen, and then took his own life. In October 2002, the new king dismissed the prime minister and his cabinet for "incompetence" after they dissolved the parliament and were subsequently unable to hold elections because of the ongoing insurgency. While stopping short of reestablishing parliament, the king in June 2004 reinstated the most recently elected prime minister who formed a four-party coalition government. Citing dissatisfaction with the government's lack of progress in addressing the Maoist insurgency and corruption, the king in February 2005 dissolved the government, declared a state of emergency, imprisoned party leaders, and assumed power. The king's government subsequently released party leaders and officially ended the state of emergency in May 2005, but the monarch retained absolute power until April 2006. After nearly three months of mass protests organized by the seven-party opposition and the Maoists, the king allowed parliament to reconvene on 28 April 2006.
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WOW medclinician, this will certainly cut to the chase. Thank you.
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Medclinician,
Bless you. We may not pay you, but we sure appreciate you! Wouldn't this be the type of thing one could expect to happen if TSHTF? No country wants to be "the one" where this all starts. The immediate economic ramifications are unbelievable. News blackouts, denial, retracking news announced...I think it would even happen here in the US. The way things are going, the recent events don't make me feel like this is a false alarm, but the way things will unfold. |
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Med who exactually do you work for???
you seam to have amazing contacts......
just courious..
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mieke
V.I.P. Member Joined: August 20 2006 Location: Netherlands Status: Offline Points: 25 |
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Hi all,
Why is this topic called "China - 14 persons die unknown disease" if the newssources make clear that it's about NEPAL and not about China? Wouldn't it be better to have the title of this thread edited so it's clear this is about the - still - Hindu Kingdom of Nepal? Here's a map of the districts of Nepal; Nuwakot District is in the Central Region just north/north-west of Kathmandu, neighbouring the Kathmandu Valley and with the Himalayas to the north-east: http://ncthakur.itgo.com/map04.htm (If some mod here can make that URL "clickable", I owe him/her...) I've looked up the source that keeps being mentioned for this alarming news: the Kathmandu Post. Read the small newsarticle in its online PDF edition of yesterday, August 19. And to the best of my knowledge The Kathmandu Post (and eKantipur.com that it belongs to) is indeed a reliable newssource throughout the years. Which does nót mean, however, that the reported number of victims and the period concerned need to be fully accurate. Clearly the newssource depended on information they received from the district. But the whole situation is being checked out more properly now, or so it seems, with a medical team being sent to investigate matters. For your info I've e-mailed this news today to a few contacts in Nepal, and I've posted it out on a few online webforums either for Nepal or (Dutch ones) for bird flu. Remember that back in 2003 not H5N1 but a different yet also deadly strain ( H7N7) hit The Netherlands, killing one of our vets... Any of you here with (personal) e-mail contacts in Nepal/Ktm Valley should perhaps do the same: contact them and ask if they have more or better information meanwhile. Will let you know here should I receive any interesting reactions on what may be taking place there in Nuwakot at present. Fourteen victims in only a few weeks time and in such a limited area indeed sounds incredible. |
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MedClincian,
Excellent job! I am so glad you are back on the forum and in such a big way. Your posts have been very informative and I truly appreciate the time and effort you spend researching AI. It will be very interesting to see how this story continues to evolve. I am honored to be part of a forum that has such dedicated individuals -- people who spend time researching the possiblity of a pandemic. It speaks volumes about their desire to protect those they love.
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Mieke, Welcome to AFT. Thanks so much for your informative post. I started a thread regarding the 2003 H7N7 Netherlands just recently. I think it is an important story, and if you have anything to add I would be very grateful. Regards, Argyll. Hope all is well in the Netherlands! |
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My wife was joking I could tell you but then we would both be unemployed. Joking. I have contacted the editor of the paper, and sent the content of the "alledged article" and am verifying it. If I get a response, I will post it. Hopefully, it is some twisted person (not the editor) trying to get attention. |
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mieke
V.I.P. Member Joined: August 20 2006 Location: Netherlands Status: Offline Points: 25 |
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Thanks Argyll. I'll try to contribute some more here in the near
future, and will certainly also look up your thread on the epidemic in
Holland with the H7N7 strain.
As for how things are over here at present: not so good, I'm afraid. Because in the southern province of Limburg we now have an outbreak of "blue tongue" disease among sheep, with several farms being affected. Meanwhile in Belgium too (Liège-area). But that's off-topic for this board, though highly alarming as well and for the entire EU since this disease - spread by infected midgets - was until now never found anywhere "north of southern France", due to temperatures mostly. speak later! |
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Hello and most welcome to have you here. You've saved me a lot of work already. The publiciation is for real and current. I'll still talk to the journalist who is probably very familiar with the district. Excellent to have some more info. Thanks. |
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Sins
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2006 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 33 |
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I
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Leave a kiss and hug as your mark on the hearts of others
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Sins
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2006 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 33 |
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I have
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Leave a kiss and hug as your mark on the hearts of others
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Sins
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2006 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 33 |
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I have recently joined, today in fact, but have been keeping track of forums and news articles, Information overload seems to be setting in and the boy who cried wolf is crying more often, Hope this is another of hose times, but think maybe it's not. Living in Australia, there is no news on BF coming from our newspaper at all. only way is reading foreign papers, Do I trust them? No, but a grain of truth is usually there. Like the house insurance I have paid of 20 years and never needed, my stockpile of food and medicines are something I fill safer having, especially today
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Leave a kiss and hug as your mark on the hearts of others
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Sins
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2006 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 33 |
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Sorry about that, did something wrong.
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Leave a kiss and hug as your mark on the hearts of others
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mieke
V.I.P. Member Joined: August 20 2006 Location: Netherlands Status: Offline Points: 25 |
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@ medclinician
At present, but I don't know for how long (probably not very long, judging by the simple URL), this is the URL of the PDF version, page 2, of yesterday's Kathmandu Post (English edition) with that small but alarming newsitem. http://www.kantipuronline.com/pdf/tkp2.pdf And here is Reuter's Alert Net, issued today: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/DHA295996.htm "Regional Asia health meet seeks bird flu strategy" Wait till they hear about Nuwakot... Btw I'll also mail a Nepali journalist (someone who works for a different paper), and ask for more information on what's going on, and rather near the capital. (The capital has a population, unofficially, of some 2 mio people at least). I hope he'll manage to find out more. |
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