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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Nepal - 14 persons die unknown disease

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2006 at 9:06pm

Thanks Juliep, so much, for that information. Smile Let us know what more you find out.

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Originally posted by Juliep Juliep wrote:

In spite of the fact that there seemed to be some uncertainty to this story we decided to send it to our subscribers - just in case.

Just received the following from the Director of Animal Health of the Government of Nepal in Kathmandu...

"I am regularly getting the bird flu news from you.I am the Director of Animal Health in Nepal and and I am also working as focal point for bird flu.I am also the delegate for OIE from  Nepal.I mean to say that I am also responsible for information on bird flu. As you mentioned Bird flu in Nepal this is just rumour  by the media  not the diagnosed  and investigated report."

I am awaiting his response to queries about the 14 victims, as well as the 2,000 dead pigs.  I'll post whatever info I receive.
 
Would they be so kind as to share their actual diagnosis and report with us?  This is exactly the scenario I am expecting where they try to keep the lid on a true outbreak long enough for them to get a jump on developing a vaccine to secure the patent rights for the formula.  If this is at all even remotely real, we will soon find out.
 
Thanks for the update Juliep keep us posted!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2006 at 9:47pm
Beautiful photos here.....
 
Kathmandu Valley - Bhaktapur
 
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NEWS OF THE AREA -
 
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Thank you everyone for your kind comments. 
 
I'm not going anywhere, but am going to slow down a bit.  My DH would like that as well...I actually have other things to do he informs meEmbarrassed
 
One quick observation at the risk of irritating Albert. 
 
If the rule of no hiszroe postings allowed were in place prior to this event - I would not have been allowed to bring this 'nugget'  forth for all of this discussion and investigation.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 22 2006 at 5:16am

It's okay to continue posting information from hiszroe.  We were initially concerned because hiszroe had removed the original report.  Organizations that report 14 people are dead in an epidemic hazard and then pull the information off the site the next day would draw obvious concerns.  Since they placed it back their site, everything is fine.   We have to really be sure to scrutinize all news sources for accuracy.   

 

Anyway Sand, you posted this and brought it to everyone's attention.  Good job. 

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I have no problem with a posting of a situation for us to check out. This may be the only way for us to jump on something and do our final preps, before others hear about it. Some news stories turn out false, that's ok. It will happen again, but some have been true and we are more educated. We are all in this together working for a common goal. The more people watching and checking things out the better. I don't think anyone should be afraid to post, or question a post. It's ok to be wrong too. It makes us all a little smarter.
We may gain more networking skills, etc. Everyone keep looking and posting.
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ozgirl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 22 2006 at 7:50am
Ok have I missed something what happened with the Nepal incident?  What is the final diagnosis? I gather from the last few posts it has shown not to be bf, either way you guys did a fantastic job and made me understand that we may actually get a heads up here first due to your amazing work and committment everyone cheers from down under
loving life in Oz
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Sand, for what's it's worth I appreciate you and all the others who contributed to this post. I realize you sacrifice your time to do so. I wish I was in a better position to help. All I can do at the moment is thank you. Thank you all.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 22 2006 at 8:13am

Hi ozgirl, the press is on the way there now to investigate it.   Nobody knows anything yet, but we're about to find out.   If the original report is accurate, a lethal virus has gone from killing chickens to humans.  Since viruses don’t usually make the jump from birds to humans like that, “something” unusual may have happened.

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bill 100 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 22 2006 at 8:34am
According to Dr Osterholm that is what the 1918 flu did.
 

City Pages, Wednesday, March 22, 2006

"This thing just continues to march"

By Steve Perry

Osterholm: "H5N1 is the most powerful influenza virus we've seen in modern human history" Courtesy of CIDRAPMichael Osterholm: First of all, let me take a step back and say that's a typical question we hear from the public. But it's almost like asking, how many apples can you harvest from the ocean? Because flu pandemics are like earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis—they occur. There's going to be another one. There have been 10 in the last 300 years. What you're really asking, I think, is will it be H5N1? It's important to understand that when you're preparing for pandemic influenza, you're preparing for something that will happen. To say anything to the contrary would be like saying, now that Katrina's happened, we'll never have another hurricane like it.

Will H5N1 be the pandemic strain, and will it occur in the next six to twelve months? The answer is, we don't know. What is troubling about this virus is that this thing has continued to mutate from its earliest days, in Hong Kong in 1997. And what is very, very troubling to us is that it's mutating in very similar fashion to the way the 1918 virus did. We went back with the 1918 virus and found all eight genes of that virus in tissue samples—five from soldiers' pathology slides that had been stored away, three from the recovered corpse in Alaska. They didn't have any live virus, but they've been able to make the virus from those eight genes. And by studying that, they could determine how it actually mutated and jumped directly to humans from birds. It didn't go through other species as the 1957 and 1968 viruses did, where a bird and a human virus got together, most likely in a pig lot, because pigs happen to be the universal recipients for both [birds and humans].

They combined to make a third, dumbed-down virus that caused mild pandemics. The 1918 virus jumped right from birds to people. There was no combining with other viruses. One of the problems we've had is, if you look at the 1918 virus and this one, they're in essence kissing cousins. Genetically, these things look very similar. Frank Obenauer and colleagues just published a paper the last week of January in Science, and they actually have gone back and looked at the full genetic codes for 169 avian virus genomes, dating way back. They looked at 2,169 distinct avian virus genes. There were two viruses that showed a protein tag at the end of one of the nonstructural genes that actually looks to help cause the cytokine storm that makes this a unique illness.* And guess which two viruses they were: 1918 H1N1, and the current H5N1.

I didn't post the whole thing it was too long.
A storm is coming !
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I did take a break and totally off topic will make the comment our new baby in the ultrasound appeared to be break dancing, and the jaws have started moving already. Looks like she is going to be as much of a talker as her dad.

Have read through what's going on and (comment)

I think like all opinionated people there are a few snarls and hisses and we all make mistakes. To Jhetta, Sands, Albert, and advisors and etc. in here, when I post, I expect to get feedback and sometimes even jumped. Sands, things get heated in here, and sometimes you find a link, even have read it, post it, make some comments, and wham.

Well, honestly we cannot, at least I cannot working on 3 research projects and splitting my time with 2 universities and the government, be an AFF scholar. I do not have time to read every post, I am not familiar with every link that has been posted, and there are doctors here and I who will forever probably have a certain amount of banter and heated discussion.

I take no one's word based on credentials, experience, or if they are head of whatever organization with unquestioned faith. I question everything.
As a congress person I spoke to recently said we all get up in the morning, etc. etc. the same way, etc. etc. The mystic veil of authority of knowledge does not hold up when knowledge and new data is constantly being born on the Internet. You may think you know medicine or disease, or genetics or virology, but some person can publish and upset the whole applecart and most of what you thought, was wrong. And concerning their new breakthrough, including some things we are working on, it is knowledge that did not exist before we published it. You can't be knowledeable on instanteous communication when it did not exist to you in open journals.

It is normal when you question authority people sometimes, (not always) who are used to people having this kind of unwavering faith in their opinion and judgement to not be outclassed, ignornant, and simply back down and say.. well I am an expert - what do you know? In this case (finally something bringing back to the thread) we have people posting who live in the aread. Be we techie, doctor, programmer, geek, whatever, they know more than we do about their own road they walk on everyday and we can learn from them in many areas on what is going on in Nepal.

Point is, there are no medical experts who in 100 years will seem to have been medicine men chanting to pagan gods or earth spirits and dancing around a fire. Non-invasive medicine, a huge decrease in the use of prescription medicine, and a turn to alternative therapies will replace huge portions of what is practiced today. This is an evolving process. And when blasted on the media, under spotlight you can view huge blaring errors in every sector of government or medical practice.

Medicines given, procedures done, which are sworn by, heart pills which cause heart attacks, debating on if margarine or butter are best for you. The world is changing. Sorry health professionals, we can barely keep up on what is happening in our fields, no matter how fast we can read, surf, or what we were taught.

Point : I sometimes heatedly disagree and then I will hear a classic "Well, if you knew what I knew, or you have no idea what you are talking about.

Someone in research told us our current process for non-invasive internal body scanning was completely impossible. It simply could not work. For 30 years it as generally known no one could possible develop technology to do it.

I have media recorded from a working prototype of this device. And we have endured some vigorous attacks over the years. You cannot argue with reality. Well you can, and people do, but in the end medicine advances and many dearly held theories and beliefs die bitter deaths.

So, we have discussed water borne Avian. And let's face it - if Avian mutates and presents itself differently - we still don't know. Simply saying, well this happened last year, or this happens all the time does tend to stress me. I go to a lot of funerals. They happen all the time as well. And we are getting far too many in Indonesia and other new outbreaks where Avian is gaining a foothold on humankind.

These are my opinions. I have over 14 years of college and decades of experience in the medical field. I can walk into X university where they got a new sequencer or whatever and talk to someone who lives, eats, and breathes genetics and despite reading journals and spending 5 hours a day learning, going to school, and studying technology, I can't keep up

This is relevant. I defnitely cannot keep up on this forum. If you have posted something, or link has already been posted, I don't have the hours in the day, to go through every post. If its a duplicate post or thread, then people in here move like buzzing bees on data and surfing.

We still don't know what this is. I do think we have done a great job of working on it without getting into a lot of petty bickering and we should always try to avoid that. I love you all. I am a humantarian, a Christian, and soon to be a daddy. I want to see America work, survive, and our government infrastructure, however it is criticized endure whatever crisis, disaster, or attack, so we can hold on the freedom to be Americans.

I am long winded and people are going to stress sometimes and want me to post just articles and not comment. I will not be offended when you see Medclinician and quickly click "next post" without reading a word. I rarely do that on certain threads. I read every single line, which is why I spend 5 hours a day, learning on the net.

It's not over on this event. Now I will not get all Ghandi on you or get fundamentalist Christian, but I care about everyone here... our planet - every single death in every single country.

God bless America and when I read of the horrendous situations all over the world, we better keep our act together, stop fighting each other when we face the common enemies of hostile rogue nations who would like to see us all buried. We are at war, and the war on drugs and extremists may very well become a war on a score of viruses which doesn't care about face, race, sexual, or religious preference.

You did good Sands. Don't be sorry. You discovered something which may be a flash in the pan or save hundreds of thousands of lives. That is the goal, right. To save lives. Be proud. Don't feel crushed when these links and sites and people betray you. Don't be overwhealmed when suddenly you post something and it gets really heated. This is a very hot kitchen, this AFF, and there are a lot of conflicting ideas here.

Know for certain, this is not the last event and I think AFF is a lifeline which runs past classic media. It is no blog. It is simply a very wide spectrum of people learning, posting, researching, to help the whole planet. I am honored to be here. So we wait, and watch, and get ready - that is a good thing.
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Congrats MedCinician on your grandchild!!! Mine still isn't here yet, maybe today, I hope!!
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Nepal Health Officials Rule Out Outbreak
August 22nd, 2006 @ 9:37am

KATMANDU, Nepal (AP) - Nepalese health officials ruled out Tuesday a mysterious disease outbreak in a mountain village, saying seven people who died there in less than two weeks had died of a variety of causes.

On Saturday the Kathmandu Post reported 14 unexplained deaths in Betini, Nuwakot district, sparking concerns that a deadly disease had struck the village, possibly bird flu. The report said the disease first struck dogs and chicken in June.

Two teams of health workers were sent from a district hospital to investigate the deaths in Betini, about 30 miles northwest of the capital Katmandu, but found no mysterious outbreak, Bikash Lamichane, a doctor at a local hospital said on the telephone Tuesday.

The health workers discovered that only seven had died, five of chronic diseases including asthma and kidney problems, and two of diarrhea, Lamichane said.

There are not many hospitals or doctors in the villages in Nepal and patients in the mountainous region have to walk for hours if not days to reach the nearest road to get to a hospital.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 22 2006 at 9:19am
Originally posted by Jhetta Jhetta wrote:

Canada "An outbreak of anthrax that began in early July 2006, the largest ever recorded in Saskatchewan, has now killed at least 746 farm animals in that province and neighboring Manitoba, according to Aug 9 statistics from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA).

The outbreak, which has led to at least 146 farms being quarantined, is the largest on the prairies since record-keeping began in the 1950s, aid CFIA veterinarian Dr. Sandra Stephens, according to a Canadian Press (CP) story yesterday. The vast majority of dead animals have been in Saskatchewan, with 628 anthrax-infected animals dying on 129 farms, according to the CFIA. In Manitoba, 118 animals have died on 17 farms."
 


Quoting from another post, there is a weapons grade version of Anthrax that can survive in 100% bleach. As I have said before, I continue to appreciate and glean a great deal of information from your posts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 22 2006 at 10:33am
Really I did not know about weapon grade anthrax's ability to survive in chlorine... I found a study regarding water treatment; seems the natural spores are able to survive in the low concentrations used for water treatment.
 
Anthrax Spores May Survive Water Treatment
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/02/060226115234.htm
 
Anthrax is still a hot subject because of its possible use as a weapon of bioterrorism and remains a health threat in third world countries. Anthrax infections can be cured by antibiotics when detected early.  There are several companies as well as university's doing anthrax research here in SD... Potentially big business.   Luckily there has been some great progress throughout the world.
 
 
Combating Anthrax: Researchers Look For A Better Vaccine
 
Anthrax Inhibitor Counteracts Toxin, May Lead To New Therapeutics
 
Study By UCSD Gives New Insight Into How Anthrax Bacteria Can Evade A Host's Immune Response
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/01/040107072134.htm
 
 
Originally posted by medclinician medclinician wrote:

Originally posted by Jhetta Jhetta wrote:

Canada "An outbreak of anthrax that began in early July 2006, the largest ever recorded in Saskatchewan, has now killed at least 746 farm animals in that province and neighboring Manitoba, according to Aug 9 statistics from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA).

The outbreak, which has led to at least 146 farms being quarantined, is the largest on the prairies since record-keeping began in the 1950s, aid CFIA veterinarian Dr. Sandra Stephens, according to a Canadian Press (CP) story yesterday. The vast majority of dead animals have been in Saskatchewan, with 628 anthrax-infected animals dying on 129 farms, according to the CFIA. In Manitoba, 118 animals have died on 17 farms."
 


Quoting from another post, there is a weapons grade version of Anthrax that can survive in 100% bleach. As I have said before, I continue to appreciate and glean a great deal of information from your posts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 23 2006 at 4:54am
Originally posted by Jhetta Jhetta wrote:

Really I did not know about weapon grade anthrax's ability to survive in chlorine... I


This is from Mach Jhetta.

mixed bir flu strain doesn’t spread easily ????
Posted: August 03 2006 at 12:13am Just in case mother nature doesn't figure it out, now we have them trying to create a pandemic virus in the lab. Must we try so hard to wipe ourselves out as a species?


Trying to create bioweapons has been going on for decades if not longer. After the Soviet union collapsed, it was discovered thay had created a strain of anthrax that remained viable in a 100% bleach solution!. Some people believe H5N1 may have been created in a lab as a bio food weapon and got loose. Same with the british


Comment: I could dig deeper on this and considering the sensitivity of it, it might not be such a terrific idea. We have at CDC and Russia has at X location "the meanest toughest SOB bacteria and viruses in the valley."
Although bioweapon research has been banned, when you possess a highly refined pathogen that could be used as an offensive weapon - whether it is being used to protect us by conducting research - we still have it.

The question of what North Korea is now feverishly working on in about 7 labs visible from Eye in the Sky is not a toughie. For one, they are a freeway for shared nuclear, chemical, and bioweapons from Pakistan and other WMDs. Such talk is for another site, and is certainly outside what I wish to discuss online. Let's focus on this bug. It is not the chance of an "accidental mutation creating a super bug which could then create a Pandemic." One can quote me statistics by the volume  why this is unlikley. We have the tech to produce bugs which are fully capable of spanning  the globe in less than 20 hours - at least effective transmission -  from carrier 0 to carrier 1. There is simply no need to debate this. It is fact. Whenever we get something nasty somewhere and people start dropping, then behind the scenes the lights go on and we go on alert. Just because you don't read it on CNN doesn't mean it doesn't happen. And if it is contained do you really believe that given certain people in places safety and efficiency would be compromised, it is going to be put up on the net? Unlikely.

No doubt we could spend time discussing fun Staph flesh melters from South America, and a pantheon of highly virulent little blue vials. The stuff our horror movies are made of. Let's not be naive. No need to scare the natives. My main comment in this case, since this is not a boiling pot of
other type activity, is that we have a location to be monitored seeing as it is a perfect place to incubate and start things which can take a ride on the nearest jet to your hometown. That is the problem.

We probably have some type of outbreak here. We also have an area crawling with our own people for various and sundry reasons outside the scope of this discussion.  It is being contained. For now.

It has happened before here and we need to find out what it is. There is a chance someone already knows what it is. We are not in Kansas anymore and this may be way outside the classic realm of anything but a very advanced CDC or WHO grade lab could pin down. Anticipating debate here (no it isn't it is probably some simple common disease given as per Dr. Gardener [we usually see a variation of the common rather than the uncommon] it is probably some simple. We may not get to know any more about this than we do already - unless it spreads.

Disclaimer : although the previous comments are based on research it is commentary. The author makes no special claim to inside access to documents or would any information relevant to national security not available on open network ever be posted.


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medclinician: we are all conscripted and now we are all medclinicians. We all will have to respond in different ways and now the source of the attack matters little. Our very survival is at stake and if we do not pull together we will pull apart. This is coming and it is my gut feeling that it is coming very soon indeed.

There are many "fires" in many, many places. Too many for me to not think that they are connected in some diabolical way. Misdiagnoses are rampant because we have seen that there are many incidents that the professionals are not utilizing labs for specificity. These actions, or lack of them, are unthinkable considering these areas are ripe for BF. We know that it is difficult to differentiate between many of these diseases by clinical observation only. We ask why, is it lack of funding, non-compliance, or apathy? Or is it that they know what they are dealing with and are attempting to stem the tide of panic that will sweep the world with the announcement of a pandemic waiting instead until we are in its grip, which will change the face of that panic. The unaware will not face what is coming but they will respond between waves when they have no necessities of life. This "event" is being managed and, of course, this is an opinion. Whether it is being managed correctly, only God knows.

Man's politics is the albatross around our necks.
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Originally posted by rodin33 rodin33 wrote:

Congrats MedCinician on your grandchild!!! Mine still isn't here yet, maybe today, I hope!!


Not a medical miracle Rodin but this is my child, my wife's first. My family tends to marry them a little younger and my wife is still well within her child bearing years and I decided to have a baby. Guess, I'm not dead yet. Grin. Wish you the best on your grandchild. My wife has probably read half the links on the internet. Sorry everyone for way off topic - we all need a little breather now and then - the hand that rocks the cradle rules the world.

the HAND that rocks the cradle rules the world
1865 W.R.WALLACE in J.K.Hoyt Cyclopedia of Practical Quotations (1896) 402 A mightier power and stronger Man from his throne has hurled, For the hand that rocks the cradle is the hand that rules the world. a 1916 'SAKI' Toys of Peace (1919) 158 You can't prevent it; it's the nature of the sex. The hand that rocks the cradle rocks the world, in a volcanic sense. 1996 Washington Times 10 May A2 The habits of the home in one generation become the morals of society in the next. As the old adage says: 'The hand that rocks the cradle rules the world'. cf women

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Medclinician - Thanks for all the time you put into posting on this forum.  I find your posts truly interesting.  I will admit, that I make it a point to have a fresh cup of coffee before I begin to read your posts, as I know I will be sitting for a spell.  Your willingness and dedication is truly truly wonderful and very much appreciated!  I will remember you in my prayers.  Your heart is going to absolutely melt when you hold that baby girl for the first time.  It's such a great thing.......your life is just going to change forever but it's a good change.  No matter what I say, words cannot prepare you for the love you will feel for that little being.  You will be wrapped around her little finger instantly.
 
Standingfirm - Thanks so much for your input as well. I always make a point to read your posts too. 
 
I have never blogged or been on a forum prior to this one.  I am truly lucky to have you all as it is a lifeline.
 
Now if we could just get Joe Neubarth to come back.  I have emailed him asking him too as many times, reading through this thread, I have thought.........what would Joe think?   Standingfirm.....when you said  metaphorically called this a fire........that's what Joe would say.......a brush fire....but it was a big brush fire.    
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Originally posted by Jhetta Jhetta wrote:

Really I did not know about weapon grade anthrax's ability to survive in chlorine...  


Quoting from another post, there is a weapons grade version of Anthrax that can survive in 100% bleach. As I have said before, I continue to appreciate and glean a great deal of information from your posts.
[/QUOTE]
[/QUOTE]
 
As far as I know, it's not all weapons gade anthrax. The US documented a soviet engineered anthrax weapon that was mixed with bleach and buried, but was still viable after years. I read this years ago, here are some of the many articles on the inernet about it.

"In 1988, in a hasty effort to bury evidence of its alleged biological warfare program, the Soviet military hauled tons of bleach-soaked anthrax canisters to Vozrozhdeniye, doused them with even more bleach and then dumped them, the institute says.

The Monterey Institute claims that anthrax is still simmering in the island's soil. Tucker said that U.S. scientists who took samples from Vozrozhdeniye in 1997 were able to recover viable spores that could be grown in a culture to form live anthrax bacteria. "

 
 
 
 
 
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Originally posted by Juliep Juliep wrote:

In spite of the fact that there seemed to be some uncertainty to this story we decided to send it to our subscribers - just in case.

Just received the following from the Director of Animal Health of the Government of Nepal in Kathmandu...

"I am regularly getting the bird flu news from you.I am the Director of Animal Health in Nepal and and I am also working as focal point for bird flu.I am also the delegate for OIE from  Nepal.I mean to say that I am also responsible for information on bird flu. As you mentioned Bird flu in Nepal this is just rumour  by the media  not the diagnosed  and investigated report."

I am awaiting his response to queries about the 14 victims, as well as the 2,000 dead pigs.  I'll post whatever info I receive.
 
Juliep,
 
Were you able to get a response from the Director of Animal Health regarding the 14 victims or the pigs?
 
 
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Press Being Censored in Nepal: RSF
 
THT Online
Kathmandu, August 24

A global media watchdog, Reporters Sans Frontières (RSF) said it was concerned about a "return of censorship in Nepal" after a series of incidents this month in which journalists were prevented from doing their work by the Maoists, government forces and "others".
"Just two months after the signing of a historic accord, which included protection of press freedom, on June 16 between Maoist rebel chief Prachanda and Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, Nepalese journalists are seeing the spectre of repression and censorship re-emerge," the The Paris-based media rights organisation said in a statement on Wednesday.
"We call the signatories to respect their undertakings and to let journalists work with complete freedom."
RSF said one of the most recent incidents had occurred in the southern Bara district on Aug 18 when nearly two dozen people, including 12 journalists, were detained for three hours by a group of Maoist activists while going to cover a dispute between rival village factions over the damming of the Jamuniya river.
Maoists also turned back journalists who wanted to report on a similar camp near Kathmandu, RSF said.
RSF also cited the instance of a community radio station whose managers forced 17 employees to retire.
"On Aug 16, 17 employees of the Ghodaghodi community radio station were suddenly given forced retirement by its managers, who used the repair of a transformer as a pretext for preventing them from entering and recovering their personal belongings," the statement said.
http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/fullstory.asp?filename=6a7Sa0pa.9amal&folder=aHaoamW&Name=Home&dtSiteDate=20060824
 
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Where did the 2000 dead pigs come into play?  Initially it was poultry, and dogs with the human deaths

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I say just stay far away from this area.  This one is too hot to handle.  Last thing we need is reporters snooping around getting infected and running home for treatment.   They are very isolated villages and I doubt any travel beyond their villlage boundries.   Let these "diseases run their course, burn and die out like they have for the last several years.  They (Maoist rebels) do not want our help - we may actually uncover more than mysterious illnesses.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Judy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2006 at 10:03pm
Sand: I thank you for the post that started this thread. It is what drew me here to this forum and I am sincerely glad to find a new source of information  on the web.
 
Angie: Thank you for the update. Only, the article did not mention anything about the deaths of the dogs and chickens. And it is not clear to me how their information on the human deaths is so certain since the bodies obviously had long since been buried and there is no mention of any labwork .  And (please bear with me) if there was really nothing going on there, why did the airport receive a warning?
 
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Good questions, Judy.  And welcome, by the way! Smile  You highlighted several things about this story that had many of us sitting up and taking notice.  Ironically, the things that are "normal" for countries with severe poverty/lack of health care are the same things that alarm us.  I am still wondering why RSOE HAVARIA suggested this was an "unprecedented epidemic," and said the airport was "at risk."  The beauty of this forum is that if one person doesn't pick up on something, another person will and we work together to figure it out. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mieke Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2006 at 11:58pm
@ Judy
Nepal is a Hindu and Buddhist country; it's unlikely that the deceased are buried. Instead they'll have been cremated.
If anyone wants to go to that district, they better don't bring url=http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/fullstory.asp?filename=aFanata0vcqzpa4a0Ta0sa.axamal&folder=aHaoamW&Name=Home&dtSiteDate=20060825]a camera[/url] along too obvious/visible. Politically there are still tensions.
 
As for the rumours about the airport: I've never believed them. Nor anything on schools. That's just not how it works; it doesn't work that way in Europe either with suspected outbreaks of H5N1 and much better communication and infrastructure. Investigations quarantaine, a stop on transporting animals, yes - untill it's clear what disease you're dealing with. But no nationwide panic. And frankly I don't know why you'd expect Asia to take such measures if they don't belong to the policies in f.e. Canada and the USofA either.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mieke Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2006 at 12:00am
Sorry about that mixed up link to THT; it worked in the "preview".
Here's another try:
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"Here there be tigers" and even well meaning Avian investigators perhaps should walk softly.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2006 at 6:46am
Albert, could you delete this thread? That action may be in the best interests of all.

Medclinician has posted, he said he won't until this is it.

Med?


IMHO: We know how to proceed and this thread is unnecessary in light of new developments.
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Originally posted by standingfirm standingfirm wrote:

Albert, could you delete this thread? That action may be in the best interests of all.

Medclinician has posted, he said he won't until this is it.

Med?


IMHO: We know how to proceed and this thread is unnecessary in light of new developments.


I have revised my post. I think it is appropriate.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2006 at 7:10am
SF,  I didn't see anything about new developments.   Is there something new happening?  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2006 at 7:26am
not with Nepal but 20,000 cases of conjunctivitis in vietnam seems pretty telling to me that we have crossed a threshold.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2006 at 8:00am
We will be okay SF.    We don't want to panic over pink eye. 
 
 
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Albert, no panic over anything. We will be fine! We are all fighters here.
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Sounds good SF.   Hang in there.    
 
 
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No reply from the director of animal health but the following came from the director of a poultry breeding farm in Nepal...

"This is a totally baseless news. Not even a single poultry is dead from so called bird flu here in Nepal till now. Hence the death of 14 people by bird flu is completely non sense and out of question. The case of Nuwakot, where it was claimed that some three hundred chickens were died from unidentified disease, was taken place in december 2005, not in last week of june. You will get more authentic information regarding this event later on through email. But one thing for sure that we never have experience even a single case of bird flu till now and we pray with almighty thhe Lord Pashupati Nath that we never had to experince the epidemic."
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Thanks JulieP.  Let us know what you find out from the animal health director.
 
Take care,
A
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mieke Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2006 at 10:49am
Originally posted by Juliep Juliep wrote:

No reply from the director of animal health but the following came from the director of a poultry breeding farm in Nepal...

"This is a totally baseless news. Not even a single poultry is dead from so called bird flu here in Nepal till now. Hence the death of 14 people by bird flu is completely non sense and out of question. The case of Nuwakot, where it was claimed that some three hundred chickens were died from unidentified disease, was taken place in december 2005, not in last week of june. You will get more authentic information regarding this event later on through email. But one thing for sure that we never have experience even a single case of bird flu till now and we pray with almighty thhe Lord Pashupati Nath that we never had to experince the epidemic."
 
Makes sense enough to me. Here are two reactions I've received myself. One from a Kathmandu-based newspaper person, the other from the woman I'd already quoted here before.
 
Quote here due to distances and not proper medical facilities these things happen. let me assure u here in Nepal even earlier there was this type of scare and the government reacted very fast by sending a team to confirm whether this was indeed bird flu. this is monsoon time and all types of diseases occur in this weather like jaundice, typhoid etc. linking them to bird flu was indeed very premature on the part of Kathmandu Post and to be fair to their reporter too it is indeed very difficult to actually prove this at the very onset. people here in kathmandu should have exercised some restraint and should have not published this news without proper investigation from the authorities. it seems all is well now.
 
Quote This, thankfully, has turned out to be another good (or bad) example of the Nepal "rumour mill"!  Based on the intial info (deaths of dogs & chickens in February) being linked to human deaths in August..... I really am not surprised that this was what we would call in English "a pig in a poke". That's why I personally did not get too upset at the report and wanted to wait for further information rather than send up panic flags to tourists. I've seen too many of these kind of things over the years....and not just in the Nepalese press.
 
The "Nepal - or Kathmandu - rumour mill" is an expression you ought to remember. I could entertain you here for days on, with only the examples that I myself know re. this "rumour mill".
That is not to ridicule or deny any of such reports, emerging from Nepal. There is enough wrong there - or insufficient - in terms of basic healthcare. And indeed at present it's the end of the monsoon season.
 
But it wás wrong, for everyone involved, to jump up on the basis of that little newsreport only. It never said that skilled medical personnel had been "on the case" and it never said that any laboratory was already involved in doing tests. It was just all way too premature. To compare things: all throughout the time it took to establish that there was nó H5N1 (or any bird flu strain for that matter), not only the zoo in Rotterdam but the entire metropole, its airport and its harbours remained operational all the time. How was that situation in America with bird flu strains suddenly killing poultry there? In how big a circle did life come to a standstill? So what would you expect Nepal to do? Shut the country based on preliminary hearsay only?
 
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gettingready: Thanks for the welcome. I have already been impressed with the way you all work together to find out the truth of what is going on out there.
 
Mieke: thanks for letting me know about the cremations. Also, I know little or nothing about  how these countries operate, so I hardly know what to expect from them. That is why I am here seeking information.  What I have learned about Nepal in this forum makes my very soul grieve for them.  However, I do have expectations concerning my own country and other developed nations concerning a pandemic (whether from H5N1 or other means): I expect to be snowballed by officials until the bodies begin stacking up by the roadside. The only way to get informed and stay informed is through forums such this.
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Here's my card, Judy. I really needed to post it here someplace, after reading these comments all the time around here by people who only seem to be interested in their own wellbeing and safety.
 
The stacking will always mainly concern animals, not humans to my firm belief.
 
Welcome aboard.
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mieke, it takes a lot for me to get offended but could you please stop insinuating that there are so many people who are concerned with only their own well being and safety. I have been a member of this forum board since last February and I must say the most people here care more about others than themselves and have spoken out against those who are the most vocal in their selfish attitudes.

As far as stacking is concerned, I think you may be surprised, if there is a pandemic with millions dead, how soon human bodies do stack up. There becomes too little time, too few resources and too little energy for anything else. Have you read John Barry's book about the pandemic of 1918? Have you seen how bodies were treated in World War II or when there are massive disasters? This is unfortunate, it hurts and it is a recurring "cringe" that I feel. In the end though it becomes about minimizing health risks and less about hurting someones feelings. And so too, that is the way it goes with animals. I value human rights over animal rights and sometimes choices have to be made that are tough. It hurts but sometimes it is inevitable.

Before you criticize my heartlessness towards animals please ask how many I care for right now that have been abandoned on my doorstep.
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Copyright The Himalayan Times, publication dated August 26
 
 
Quote Almost 80 per cent children of Betini VDC of Nuwakot are malnourished, a recently conducted medical check-up revealed.
A team of health workers from District Public Health Office, Nuwakot, had conducted health check-up of the children in the VDC after seven children died of diarrhoea, respiratory problems and fever within the period from July to mid-August.
 
 
@ sf,
Sorry, you raise a complicated issue I'm not gonna discuss with you in this thread here. Start another one if you like, on topic, and send me a link.
 
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Mieke,

 

I fully appreciate your sentiments that cooler heads should prevail in and around this topic here at AFF.  I don't agree that we should wait for an official stamp of approval on news released or reports.  The officials we would so patiently wait upon have also demonstrated their propensity for hiding and delaying the facts to further their own agendas and for obvious reasons.   We have seen bogus reports before and will again many more times. 

 

Is there a lesson to be learned from this exercise on this thread?  Of course and I feel we learned how quickly we as a team can respond to a story.  Pandemics in the past have demonstrated how quickly they can spread and days if not hours will make a huge difference in our lives and ability to respond appropriately at that time and moment it goes H2H.  Read the entire thread and it is truly impressive the volume of information that was presented.  Impressive not only in detail but the speed thoroughness of searching that was demonstrated this past week as well. 

 

Time is precious in a pandemic and I believe everyone here is willing to take that chance to waste no time chasing a story whether or not is true or false.  That is why we are here in the first place and it is our mission to pursue the truth about AI.  I believe everyone here is committed to getting the stories as well as the facts as soon as they are available and keep in mind we are real people and not professional reporters and should even be afforded some room to get excited in the process.

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