Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
New Strain of BF |
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Posted: October 30 2006 at 3:11pm |
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New bird flu strain might resist current vaccines
Oct. 30, 2006, 4:49PM By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID WASHINGTON — Scientists have discovered a new strain of bird flu that appears to sidestep current vaccines. It's infecting people as well as poultry in Asia, and some researchers fear its evolution may have been steered by the vaccination programs designed to protect poultry from earlier types of the H5N1 flu.
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>The discovery by Yi Guan of the University of Hong Kong and colleagues is reported in Tuesday's issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The new variant has become the primary version of the bird flu in several provinces of China and has spread to Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand, the researchers report. It is being called H5N1 Fujian-like, to distinguish it from earlier Hong Kong and Vietnam variants. "We don't know what is driving this," report co-author Dr. Robert G. Webster of St. Jude's Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., said in a telephone interview. New vaccines will have to be developed, Webster said. Many scientists are going to think the vaccination program encouraged the virus to evolve resistance, he added, but high-quality vaccines can reduce the level of illness and prevent emergence of variants. While the new virus has infected people, there is no evidence that it can pass easily from person to person, Webster said. However, he added, "this virus is continuing to drift." Dr. Michael L. Perdue, of the World Health Organization's Global Influenza Program in Zurich, Switzerland, said the new variant doesn't indicate any increased risk for people "other than the fact it seems to be pretty widespread." The virus is continuing to change, he added. Perdue, who was not part of Webster's research team, said WHO is working with the Chinese Ministry of Health to develop a vaccine for the new form of the virus. The H5N1 flu has devastated poultry in China and several other southeast Asian countries and also has claimed more than 150 human lives. Most of the people affected lived close to flocks of chickens or other poultry. Public health authorities fear that the virus will mutate into a form that can spread easily among people, raising the potential for a worldwide pandemic like the one that killed millions in 1918. That worry has spurred efforts to develop vaccines for the virus as well as to test migrating wildfowl in an effort to detect movement of the disease. Studding the virus' surface are two proteins called hemagglutinin — the H in H5N1 — and neuraminidase, the "N." There are 16 known hemagglutinin versions and nine neuraminidases. They also trigger the immune system to mount an attack, particularly hemagglutinin, the protein the body aims for when it makes flu-fighting antibodies. The research was funded by the Li Ka Shing Foundation, a Hong Kong group that supports medical, educational and cultural work, and the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease. |
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So, what does this mean? Is this a worse case setting or does this mean we now deal with a new type of avian flu? Or does anyone really even know? What is your opinon? Is this serious or just more infor to be collected and processed?
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Frisky
Valued Member Joined: March 14 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 123 |
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This is probably just expected viral evolution. The driving
forces in this case would be the vaccine program going on in some
areas and the fact that a lot of birds carry antibodies to the current
strains . This is no different than evolution seen in regular human flu
strains. As the susceptible population percentage drops due to
vaccination or prior infection there is evolutionary pressure to mutate
and those mutant strains over time gain transmission advantage
and replace the prior strains. The implications as far as coming
closer to efficient H2H will have to be evaluated by the genetics
people. The more mutant strains are out there the more likely that
accidental combination of mutations can occur. ER Doc
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It is better to give than to receive.
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Does anyone think this H5N1 Fujian-like varient has been swirling around in China for several years?
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"... The new variant (?)
has become the primary version of the bird flu in several provinces of China and has spread to Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand, the researchers report. It is being called H5N1 Fujian-like, to distinguish it from earlier Hong Kong and Vietnam variants...."
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An H5N1 Fujian-like varient
that came from China's Fujian Provence back in Dec of 2005.
is not new?....
Excerpt-
Beijing (dpa) - A woman who died last week from H5N1 avian influenza had no known contact with poultry and seldom ate poultry meat, Chinese state media said on Saturday.
The 41-year-old factory worker died on December 21 in the southeastern city of Sanming, Fujian province, an urban area where China has reported no outbreaks of the virus among birds or other animals.
The woman, identified only by her surname, Zhou, developed fever in early December, the China Daily newspaper quoted local officials as saying. Zhou was already weak after an operation to remove a tumour in mid-October, the newspaper said. But she had no contact with infected birds and no bird flu infections were found in Sanming. Zhou's relatives also said that she did not like chicken and duck meat. "Zhou is unlikely to have been infected from poultry," the newspaper quoted Fujian disease control official Xu Longshan as saying. Read In full Here.... http://www.wtopnews.com/index.php?nid=106&sid=662058
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And earlier...
The first recorded case (of SARS) apparently occurred in mid-November 2002, in the city of Foshan, Guangdong Province, China. However, the Chinese Ministry of Health did not report to WHO that there had been 300 cases and 5 deaths in an outbreak of "acute respiratory syndrome" until February 2003. Confusing the response to these initial cases was the presence of cases of H5N1 avian influenza, with three deaths among members of a Hong Kong family who had traveled to Fujian Province.
Read in full here... The Bug S ttops HereForce Pro ttecttiion andEmerg iing Inffecttiious Diiseases (thanks jdljr1 & VSTR...)
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Linda-ann
Valued Member Joined: September 08 2006 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 154 |
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More prepping . Its gone to be a scary winter.
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Can you think of any alternative approaches to isolation?
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Excerpt...
Read in full Here... http://www.unm.edu/~opst/Articles%20to%20post/DTP%2021%20Bug%20Stops%20Here.pdf
• Many quarantine and isolation procedures exist, and they need not be perfect to
reduce disease transmission. The military must not be seen to be responsible for pandemic spread of a disease. Costs of extensive quarantine are very high and provisions would be needed to care for those immobilized by quarantine restrictions. • A comprehensive national and international civilian-military exercise program should
be developed that addresses trans-jurisdictional quarantine issues, establishes mutually agreed upon protocols, and tests these plans through tabletop and actual exercises. Systems and tools should be developed to collect, organize, and provide for real-time tracking of an outbreak. • Military force protection strengthens civilian defense from and response to an
outbreak. DOD capability to perform its mission could be limited if there is no plan for immediate protection of the force. DOD caution in adopting a supporting role in response to an outbreak and related consequence management may result in delayed action when immediate action is demanded. • Lack of suitable isolation facilities in the event of a large outbreak will be a limiting
factor. DOD should consider new technologies and alternative approaches to isolation. |
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Mahshadin
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I think its waves of varients and last year it was the Qinghai strain. This year it will be the Fujian strain.
Will this strain be as lethal as the Qinghai strain was to birds or will birds be able to tolerate and carry this new strain spreading it further around the world. And how lethal is this strain to humans referenced above. Sounds like they do have some human sequences. I think this just raised the stakes so-ta-speak Who knows for sure, but I would put stock in what Webster has to say!! |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Another Perspective
_________________________________________________________ The Fujian HA cleavages site was first reported in 2005 in A/duck/Fujian/1734/05(H5N1). As noted previously, all human sequences from China in 2005 and 2006 were the Fujian strain, as were the wild bird sequences in Hong Kong as well as sequences from Laos and Malaysia. Thus, the current sequences confirm that the Fujian strain has become widespread in China. http://www.********.com/News/10280601/H5N1_Fujian_404.html |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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yes....exactly So much so that it is not able to be contained in China...as they warned us.
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"...has become the primary version of the bird flu in several provinces of China and has spread to Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand, the researchers report. It is being called H5N1 Fujian-like..."
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It really wasn't a secret that China was trying desparately to contain it. They showed film of young lab tech's sleeping at their work stations... hello? All we needed to know was the amazing number of birds dying or being culled in many province's and you had a clue....I mean in the water, on your feet, in the rice paddies.
larger numbers of birds are dying in Europe... Scotland. It is ravaging birdies farther a field than Asia now.
But I think it will cover us by human now, faster than by nature.
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Just heard this on Fox news. New BF outbreak is going bird to human to human in Asia.....just when things were looking up.
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Something worrisome from R. G. Webster....
"..The predominance of this virus over a large geographical region within a short period directly challenges current disease control measures...."
Can anyone find this in full somewhere?
excerpt-
Contributed by R. G. Webster, September 20, 2006 The development of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses in poultry in Eurasia accompanied with the increase in human infection in 2006 suggests that the virus has not been effectively contained and that the pandemic threat persists. Updated virological and epidemiological findings from our market surveillance in southern China demonstrate that H5N1 influenza viruses continued to be panzootic in different types of poultry.
Genetic and antigenic analyses revealed the emergence and predominance of a previously uncharacterized H5N1 virus sublineage (Fujian-like) in poultry since late 2005. Viruses from this sublineage gradually replaced those multiple regional distinct sublineages and caused recent human infection in China.
These viruses have already transmitted to Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand, resulting in a new transmission and outbreak wave in Southeast Asia.
Serological studies suggest that H5N1 seroconversion in market poultry is low and that vaccination may have facilitated the selection of the Fujian-like sublineage. The predominance of this virus over a large geographical region within a short period directly challenges current disease control measures.
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Shadow
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Is there anyway to get Fox News online.
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Don't run from your past, learn from it!
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This was posted by... over on the Thailand thread and I place it here again as the so called new H5N1 Fujian varient has spread to Thailand,
says Dr. Webster.
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Read in Full here....
excerpt-
BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) - Leading a multinational team of medical experts to mobilize Southeast Asian countries against bird flu, Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt said Monday the likelihood of a flu pandemic in the future is "very high." ….
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Excerpt-
BANGKOK, Thailand — The likelihood of a human flu pandemic (search) is very high, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt warned Monday as he sought Southeast Asian cooperation to combat the spread of bird flu.
Leavitt and the director of the World Health Organization (search) are touring Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam to seek their collaboration in preparing for the anticipated public health emergency linked to the H5N1 (search) strain of the disease. |
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Shadow
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OOP"S , what I ment to say was, is there anyway of finding the news that Fox has just broadcasted? This is so scary! I'm wondering what to do now since theres no report of how many are sick with Bird Flu in China, not their names, ages...nothing.
Thanks
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Don't run from your past, learn from it!
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Fox reported this as a new strain of BF and said it was still hard for humans to catch.
I have also heard that virus come in three waves, they are saying this is the third wave. Maybe if we make it past this one, could we be in a good place? Somehow I dont think so, but was just wondering.
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Finally to see it in print...the nasty stuff has been combining....
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Avian-to-human transmission of H9N2 subtype influenza A viruses: Relationship between H9N2 and H5N1 human isolates
"...In March 1999, however, a new pandemic threat appeared when influenza A H9N2 viruses infected two children in Hong Kong.
These two virus isolates are similar to an H9N2 virus isolated from a quail in Hong Kong in late 1997. Although differing in their surface hemagglutinin and neuraminidase components, a notable feature of these H9N2 viruses is that the six genes encoding the internal components of the virus are similar to those of the 1997 H5N1 human and avian isolates. This common feature emphasizes the apparent propensity of avian viruses with this genetic complement to infect humans and highlights the potential for the emergence of a novel human pathogen...."
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hi... If you want... FOX ALERTS... they need an email addy from you.
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Shadow
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Thank you Very much!
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Don't run from your past, learn from it!
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From FOX NEWS...
A few words from President Bush and Secretary Leavitt...
U.S. Unprepared For Bird Flu EpidemicThursday, October 06, 2005 READ IN Full here....
Excerpt-
"If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country, and how do you then enforce a quarantine?" the president asked. "Who best to be able to effect a quarantine? One option is the use of a military," he said.
With or without the military, however, some lawmakers fear that America's public health system is not up to the challenge of fighting this flu. Senate Democrats criticized the Bush administration Tuesday for not yet releasing a national plan instructing public health agencies on how to prepare for an outbreak. In a letter sent to the president, 32 Senate Democrats warned that the nation was "dangerously unprepared" to respond to a bird flu outbreak because the "public health infrastructure is weak" and because advance planning has been "needlessly delayed." HHS (search) Secretary Leavitt said such plans will be released in a few days. |
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New strain of bird flu spreads to humans
By Roger Highfield, Science Editor Last Updated: 1:27am GMT 31/10/2006
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Bird flu mutates to remain a serious pandemic risk
Posted: 31 October 2006 1321 hrs HONG KONG - Experts have renewed their warnings of a bird flu pandemic after a new resistant strain of the H5N1 virus deadly to humans and poultry was found to have spread throughout the region. Scientists in Hong Kong and the United States believe the new virus -- dubbed the "Fujian-like" strain -- may have mutated in response to vaccination programmes designed to halt the disease in farm flocks. "The development of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses in poultry in Eurasia, accompanied with the increase in human infections in 2006, suggests the virus has not been effectively contained and that the pandemic threat persists," said a report in the American academic publication "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences". "Studies suggest that H5N1 seroconversion (development of antibodies in blood serum as a result of infection or immunization) in market poultry is low and that vaccination may have facilitated the selection of the Fujian-like sublineage," it added. The report -- co-written by Hong Kong University's microbiology supremo Yi Guan, who has led worldwide study into the disease -- said the strain had emerged in 2005, and had already spread throughout mainland China, as well as to Hong Kong, Thailand, Laos and Malaysia. The Fujian-like strain was now the primary variant of the fast-changing virus throughout Asia, and was quickly replacing strains that had emerged in Hong Kong and Vietnam, it said. "Analyses revealed the emergence and predominance of a previously uncharacterized H5N1 virus sublineage (Fujian-like) in poultry since late 2005," it said. "The predominance of this virus over a large geographical region within a short period directly challenges current disease control measures," the report added. The H5N1 strain of bird flu was first reported to have evolved into a form lethal to humans in Hong Kong in 1997, when six people died of the then mysterious disease. A renewed outbreak in 2003 among poultry flocks in Asia triggered a wave of infections that has left more than 150 people dead throughout the world. The World Health Organisation has expressed fears a bird flu pandemic was almost certain in the near future, and in a worst case scenario could kill millions worldwide. - AFP/ir http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...238568/1/.html |
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July
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Why all the panic now? Finally a year later they are making all these "disclosures" over the AVI strains having this particluar virulence a year later from it's original discovery?? "The report -- co-written by Hong Kong University's microbiology supremo Yi Guan, who has led worldwide study into the disease -- said the strain had emerged in 2005,""A previously unknown and dangerous strain of the H5N1 bird flu has emerged from southern China and has spread from birds to people in South-east Asia, marking a third wave of avian flu and rekindling fears of a global pandemic."
So which is going to be here, Previously Unkown or Known? Either way this could be the bad boy we have been waiting for. We have thrown our whole arsenal of vaccines and anti virals at this one and it's only added fuel to the fire. I am not happy about this.
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Wonder if this 'new' strain has any bearing on the press releases from the US saying, 'not the same HIPATH H5N1 strain seen in China"
makes me think |
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The news I heard last night was on the radio. It was a "Fox News alert". I do not know if they put these on-line or not.....I was just surprised as this was the first I have heard of the situation.
Last week a public forum was held in a county over from me concerning the BF and what our area is doing to prepare and also how to prepare as a family......this is very good as I am glad others in my area will no longer have their heads in the sand!
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That's great news Raptureready! I wish I could say the same for my area, most are still in denial around here. Sometimes I look around and think, 'how many of these people will still be here when the panstrain has passed?' Depressing.
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Finally a year later they are making all these "disclosures" over the AVI strains having this particluar virulence a year later from it's original discovery?? (Cruiser)
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hi... It looks like it was floating around earlier?
I read other reports of it appearing earlier.
Anyone have thoughts on this?
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this was in 2005... ............................... "...The 41-year-old factory worker died on December 21 in the southeastern city of Sanming, Fujian province, an urban area where China has reported no outbreaks of the virus among birds or other animals...."
And this was earlier... ...................................... "...The first recorded case (of SARS) apparently occurred in mid-November 2002, in the city of Foshan, Guangdong Province, China. However, the Chinese Ministry of Health did not report to
WHO that there had been 300 cases and 5 deaths in an outbreak of "acute respiratory syndrome" until February 2003.
Confusing the response to these initial cases was the
presence of cases of H5N1 avian influenza, with three deaths among members of a Hong Kong family who had traveled to Fujian Province.
...........................................
And this report... Read here... |
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I am listening to Nepal Radio.....News
Prince Charles has cancelled his trip...
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31 October 2006
Charles preaches religious tolerance in Pakistan
By Arshad Sharif Excerpt-
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan (Reuters) - Prince Charles cancelled a trip to North West Frontier Province on Tuesday as anti-Western Islamists stoked Pashtun tribal anger over the Pakistan army's attack on a militant-linked school.
Charles had intended to visit a madrasa, or religious school, in the provincial capital of Peshawar and deliver a speech on inter-faith relations, but it was deemed too unsafe for the heir to the throne and his wife Camilla, the Duchess of Cornwall. |
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Turkey and Romania are begining to look like China.
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January 2006
"...The Turkey outbreak is unusual, because of the large family clusters of cases; the fact that many of those infected have only mild symptoms; and the speed with which infections have arisen -- twenty cases, including four deaths, in less than two weeks. So scientists are urgently trying to establish whether the virus is behaving differently in this outbreak from previous ones in Asia. In particular, international teams are investigating the possibility that the virus is moving between people...." ........................................................................................................ A Map from WHO....
This is an excerpt-
Please see in full here....(several maps shown)
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Most of this news is not very new but rather an announcement of a strain of the virus that may be spread without bird showing symtoms
From above
((and some researchers fear its evolution may have been steered by the vaccination programs designed to protect poultry ))
In other words this new strain may have been caused or created by a vaccination program that attemted to vaccinate 14 billion birds in China (NOT). This was a big ordeal back when they were doing it and because it took two shot intervals the vaccination program was deemed by some as adding to the problem not any kind of solution. It seems from above they are now hinting that the flawed vaccination program may be responasable for the new strain. The use of Anti-virals and iffy vaccines in Asia may be contributing to the creation of these new strains which in some cases go undetected in poultry which show no Symtoms of Illness (See Below)
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
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[BEIJING] A previously unidentified strain of the H5N1 avian flu virus found in poultry in southern China has spread from birds to people in a third wave of infection, rekindling fears that China's poultry vaccination programme is ineffective.
The results were published online in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences yesterday (30 October). "This strain may have begun the third wave of transmission of H5N1 avian flu and could potentially spread throughout Eurasia," say the researchers. Genetic analysis indicates that the new strain, called Fujian-like because it was first identified in Fujian province in May 2005, became the dominant strain in southern China early this year. It is responsible for recent human H5N1 infections in China and has already spread among poultry in Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand. The strain may have become resistant to vaccines, and may even be aided by China's compulsory chicken vaccination programme that was introduced in September 2005. The researchers tested chickens, ducks and geese randomly caught in markets in six southern Chinese provinces for the H5N1 virus between July 2005 and June 2006. They found that 2.4 per cent tested positive for H5N1, an increase of 1.5 per cent from the preceding 12 months, pointing to an increase in virus activity among poultry that the researchers suggest is caused by the Fujian-like virus. The virus became increasingly dominant over other H5N1 strains, increasing from three per cent of H5N1-positive samples collected between July and September 2005, to 95 per cent of samples for April-June 2006. Guan Yi, a virologist and professor of microbiology at the University of Hong Kong who led the research, said that the new strain is unlikely to be caused by viral mutation. Instead, it is probably a previously unidentified strain that is becoming dominant, facilitated by the compulsory poultry vaccination. "The existing H5 avian vaccines are not able to prevent infection by this virus as efficiently as they do with other types of H5N1," Guan told SciDev.Net, adding that he hopes to cooperate with the Chinese authorities to fight the new viral strain. The findings underline how difficult it is to control the H5N1 virus as different strains can become dominant in a short time. Strains used in poultry vaccination against this virus should be assessed and, if needed, updated on a regular basis, says Guan. However, Zheng Shijun, of Beijing-based China Agricultural University, said that more laboratory, field tests and experiments are needed before reaching the conclusion that the new strain can resist the H5N1 vaccine in poultry. "It is also possible that poultry could have strong natural resistance to this new viral strain so that there are no reports of massive outbreaks," Zheng says. Millions of poultry have been culled and 14 people have died in China as a result of H5N1 infection. The first wave of H5N1 outbreaks occurred in late 2003 and spread to many parts of Asia. The second wave began in China's Qinhai Lake in May 2005 and spread to Europe, Africa and the Middle East. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Genetic analysis indicates that the new strain, called Fujian-like because it was first identified in Fujian province in May 2005, became the dominant strain in southern China early this year.
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The point seems to be ...
That this Fijian-like strain is likley progressed from the earlier ( A/Fujian/411/2002-like) strain out of Fujian Province.
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three deaths among members of a Hong Kong family who had traveled to Fujian Province.
Here....
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Dec. 2003
excerpt-
"...Most influenza outbreaks so far this season have been attributed to influenza A(H3N2) viruses. Of viruses antigenically characterized so far, most have been A/Fujian/411/2002-like and the rest A/Panama/2007/99-like.
So far, there have been very few reports of influenza A/Fujian/411/2002-like virus being detected in Asia...."
(there are now....)
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An interesting Province....
Military reports China missiles based in southeastern Fujian province
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from CHINA NEWS, 01 December 1999 "...Chao said the whole Fujian province is a possible firing site.."
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Figure 2: Distribution of the latest avian influenzapandemic in Asia, as of 17 March 2004 See Page 8 of 14.... to view H5N1 Pandemic (Avian)
It's been raging over the entire country of China for at least.........2 1/2 years.
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From VSTR....
"...I have also heard that virus comes in three waves, they are saying this is the third wave...."
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I'm not surprised if they are talking 3rd wave...
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"...The November 2003 death of a 24-year-old Beijing man attributed last week to avian influenza
was originally thought to be from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), according to the authors of the NEJM report.
The case is significant because, if confirmed, it revises the timeline and geographic pattern of human cases of avian flu..."
Jun 22, 2006 CIDRAP News story "Report: China had human H5N1 case in late 2003"
From..
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Anharra I am not sure your point. The Different strains have been around in china for awhile and we know how slowly if at all information comes out of China. The big problem here is not that this strain is or has been in china it is that it has gone from 3% to 95 % in a year.
This is a significat increase in 12 months similar to the spread of the Qinghai stain last year. The problem here is a huge one, after massive vaccination programs throughout southeast asia it turns out it has either failed or helped in creating another dominent strain for this season (Wave).
This puts into question wether a vaccination effort will even do any good as new strains pop up and become dominent in short order. There might be more to this vaccination story than we realize. And there could be implications to our present efforts in stopping Influenza via vaccines. It would seem logical that for a virus which can build immunity to ant-virals quickly that it could find a way to become vaccine resistant (Change more quickly) rendering vaccines useless.
Just my opinion!
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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"...The Different strains have been around in china for awhile..."
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"..This puts into question wether a vaccination effort will even do any good..."
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"..there could be implications to our present efforts in stopping Influenza via vaccines...."
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All excellent points....
and this last one especially....
"...rendering vaccines useless...."
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Why make a dozen different vacines for a varient that does not yet exist?
(I do see benefits in all the research though)
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(From 1st article above.)
What is your opinion on this ...
"...The case is significant because, if confirmed, it revises the timeline and geographic pattern of human cases of avian flu..."
Jun 22, 2006 CIDRAP News story "Report: China had human H5N1 case in late 2003"
( H5N1 Fujian-like?) The new variant has become the primary version of the bird flu in several provinces of China and has spread to Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand, the researchers report. It is being called H5N1 Fujian-like, to distinguish it from earlier Hong Kong and Vietnam variants.
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deaths in children, two in England and three in Scotland, have been confirmed as due to A/Fujian/411/2002-like virus
That one was a bear....
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"...The new variant has become the primary version of the bird flu in several provinces of China and has spread to Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand..."
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New? I guess.. When did China decide to own it..and share it?
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Anhara the statement from above:
deaths in children, two in England and three in Scotland, have been confirmed as due to A/Fujian/411/2002-like virus Is of the H3N2 A type Influenza (see below) http://www.flu.lanl.gov/search/view_record.html?accession=ISDN38157&database=fluA As for the announcement in June from China about Human case dating back to 2003: China as are many societies closed when it comes to information that will adversly affect there financial well being. I dont think they really fooled many as reports were (BackDoor) coming out of China saying the exact opposite of the officiial statements. If I remember correctly China has been in talks with the USA in regulating an Equality status on trade of poultry. Earlier post of mine. It is refreshing to see China releasing information such as the earlier Human case and H5N1 sequences just recently. There are political and financial positions at play and with our current Global (Money is everything) approach to problems its not hard to see why this happens ((Priorities)) |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Anhara the statement from above:
deaths in children, two in England and three in Scotland, have been confirmed as due to A/Fujian/411/2002-like virus Is of the H3N2 A type Influenza (see below) ......................................................................................................... hi Mahshadin ..... well Professor :)..... Yes I am aware that A/Fujian/411/2002-like virus
is H3N2 .... (I look at many pages and on occasion the link may not match the page.
But this above is the correct link for the page...)
In Europe (Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland), most H3N2 viruses that have been characterized antigenically so far this season were A/Fujian/411/2002-like; in the UK, 2/3 of isolates characterized so far were A/Fujian/411/2002-like and one third were A/Panama/2007/99-like. In Canada, more than a half of the A(H3N2) isolates characterized so far are A/Fujian/411/2002-like, while the rest were A/Panama/2007/99-like. In the US, more than ¾ of the A(H3N2) isolates were A/Fujian/411/2002-like; the rest are A/Panama/2007/99-like.
.............................................................................................................................................. As you must know...the little devils coming out of that province (fujian) are continually combining and reassorting. H3N2 is a well known bear.
And I know I wrote in other posts about co-infection...
you can see it here below... I will try to show what I read ...that way what I write will make sense to you... sometimes I am guilty of tossing up half a thought. Now I have to go back and find a piece of my reading :)
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Here it is...out of Hong Kong...
(Dr. John Tam at the Chinese University of Hong Kong)
"...It is just a matter of time before a variant capable of causing human to human transmission emerges and is likely to be a result of co-infection and gene swapping between H5N1 and the human influenza strain H3N2. It's really a disaster waiting to happen."
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That statement was in July 2004....I guess we are getting closer to that disaster....
That is one of my ...points.
I do like your positive outlook... but you may be rather generous to use the word refreshing, along with .....China releasing information. It's real old info and it ( the "new" strain).....leaked out to raise havoc in the surrounding countries prior to the release of info by the Chinese.
another ...point. :)
look forward to hearing from you...
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China did release info in early 2006 on the fujian-like strains
in Laos and Malaysia. |
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Mahshadin
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Anharra, I am sorry I misunderstood your post. No Offense Intended.
How did you know I am College Teacher :) I need to spend more time going through your posts, you are a good multi-tasker with several ideas or directions going at once. As far as China Goes Refreshing was intended at the resent release of 400 plus sequences of H5N1. I think that in itself is a very posative step forward in tackling this. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Judy
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"Without more and broader flu surveillance in both poultry and humans, say the researchers, identifying an outbreak of human H5N1 influenza will be difficult."
If it can't be detected as human to human it sure can't be reported as a warning to the rest of the world. But then China waits two years to report anyway and by then the rest of the world could be dying or dead. I think this may be the only warning we're going to get.
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If ignorance is bliss, what is chocolate?
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hi... yes 400.. is impressive. I was very happy to know that Japan expressed regret for the past and China was gracious. Good things happen.
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Mahshadin
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Anharra I guess were not the only ones with harsh words for China
BEIJING: The World Health Organization criticized China's Agriculture Ministry on Wednesday for not sharing samples of a newly discovered strain of bird flu, complicating the health watchdog's efforts to track the virus' spread.
Scientific research released this week said that the new strain — called H5N1 Fujian-like — had spread widely over the past year, being found in almost all poultry outbreaks and some human cases in China and now becoming prevalent in Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand. Despite that prevalence, the Agriculture Ministry has not given the WHO any samples of the new strain, said Julie Hall, an infectious disease expert at the WHO's Beijing office. "There's a stark contrast between what we're hearing from the researchers and what the Ministry of Agriculture says," Hall said in a telephone interview. "Unless the ministry tell us what's going on and shares viruses on a regular basis, we will be doing diagnostics on strains that are old." |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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"...we will be doing diagnostics on strains that are old.".."
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First of all I have a soft spot for China because my dad was there and brought their culture back to his children.... but I have to live in the real world. I feel China knew that all zoonotic heck was breaking out in 2002...or before. It is now 2006. Either, they want to keep the final glory for the worlds cure for this possible lethal pandemic until the 12th hour. Or...
They want to be the only country to... survive... a possible lethal pandemic. Which is it?
The only way to know is from past behavior...
.............. I know that WHO has had a medium term plan in place to assist with cooperation between countries.... that was back in 2004 that it was implemented. Do they see the progress they expected? Do... we... see the progress?
.................. China has not been self contained for no reason. While we look powerful and export
stupid movies and send our manufacturing totally ouside the country.... they wait smiling. They are a world unto themselves, one fith of the worlds population, you don't control that vast a land for as many yrs as they have, without learning something of how things tick.
Their economy can survive, one foot in the rice paddie and the other in technology.
All of their eggs, are not in the same basket, while our eggs are in all other baskets save one egg, and that one is on the moon :) If we promise to fend off deadly meteors, China can fend off pandemics. We can work together. |
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