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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

new variants

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2021 at 8:52pm

Originally posted by roni3470 roni3470 wrote:

Josh, this recombination doesn't necessarily mean more deadly though, correct?  Outside of this article, what are your thoughts on this??

you are correct,

Recombination ,

Means to me ,it can either recombine to be less deadly but more transmissible,or recombine to be harmless,

Or it can go the other way and become more deadly and more transmissible.....

With the amount of variants. Out there it's anyone's guess....

Looking especially at the middle east , Indonesian,

 typically countries that have been slow to implement lockdowns etc,

these places are a viruses playground

Who knows what is around the corner of....

Ebola,Covid reasortment.....now we are talking about slate wiper stuff,doubt if that could happen, never say never....

 there is a Airborne ebola virus that is not harmful as far as I'm aware....all that could change in a heartbeat.....

Take care all 😷😉


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2021 at 9:06pm

The Conversation CA: How the coronavirus mutates and what this means for the future of COVID-19.

https://theconversation.com/how-the-coronavirus-mutates-and-what-this-means-for-the-future-of-covid-19-154499

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2021 at 10:12pm

roni3470 DJ-my thoughts on this recombination of corona variants is that the "room" for Covid19 "to do the extreme" is there.  An extra reason to increase surveilance, stop the spread (at almost all costs), increase testing/sequencing and increase the urgency with wich we increase all the earlier measures...(testing, sequencing etc).

I notice a tendency to take this virus less serious in politics/"press"...at the same time more variants are developing. This recombination news may indicate we can expect much more variants...

Just like with mutations recombinations most of the time make a virus weaker. Both mutations and recombinations are mistakes in reproduction-ad random. A virus has no "brain or plan" and is on the edge of life-needs a host for reproduction. 

I do not know how real the risk is of covid RNA mixing up with Ebola RNA if a person gets infected with both virusses. And there most likely are other bad diseases able to do "bad things" possibly able to recombine with Covid19. 

"An unfriendly guest is no longer taking over a room he is taking over the house"....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2021 at 4:04am

ABC News: New COVID variant found in UK may reduce effectiveness of vaccines, government says.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-17/new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-the-united-kingdom/13162548

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2021 at 4:12am

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=501.V2_variant&action=history[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=501.V2_variant&action=history DJ-The SA variant page on wikipedia keeps changing...it may be hard to get good SA variant numbers...From Dutch news WHO UK variant in 94 countries, SA variant in 46 countries and B variants (P1 and P2) in 21 countries...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2021 at 4:37am

Sorry double post 

Take care all 😷😉

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2021 at 2:33am

New coronavirus variant discovered in Finland – media

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/world/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-discovered-in-finland-11325803.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_site 

Researchers in southern Finland have discovered a new, "unique" variant of the coronavirus.

Helsinki-based Vita Laboratories said the variant, dubbed Fin-796H, displayed some mutations previously discovered in the British and South African variants of the virus but in a combination it called "unique," Yle reported.

"The variant was discovered in a patient last week, so details about the infectivity and potential resistance of this strain to vaccines are not yet known," said Vita Laboratories' researcher Taru Meri.

It is unlikely that the variant emerged in Finland due to relatively low rates of coronavirus infection in the country, Meri said.

Read alsoNew COVID variant with potentially worrying mutations found in UK – mediaIlkka Julkunen, Professor of Virology at the University of Turku, told Yle that based on the information available, the emergence of the variant was not a major concern.

"I would not be hugely worried yet, because we do not have clear information that this new strain would be more easily transmitted or that it would affect the immune protection brought about by already having had the virus or having received a vaccination," he said.

Petri Auvinen, research director of the University of Helsinki's Institute of Biotechnology, said finding new variants of the coronavirus was simply "a matter of time."

"However, the newly-discovered variant differs from expectations in that it does not genetically resemble any other known variant," he said.

Vita Laboratories considers the discovery of the new variant significant as it may not show up in PCR tests for coronavirus that search for particular genetic sequences in the virus' RNA.

If the PCR test is only able to identify specific parts of that code, then a mutated virus may escape detection. Therefore, PCR tests often search for at least two different sections.

"The tests' inability to recognise it, meaning those mutations have occurred in the section on which the PCR test is based, is the most important information about this variant at the moment," clinical researcher Taru Meri said.


Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/world/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-discovered-in-finland-11325803.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_site

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2021 at 3:24am

That article seems to have been taken word for word from the Finnish state owned tv news channel https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/new_coronavirus_variant_discovered_in_finland/11796958

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2021 at 3:33am

[url]https://pledgetimes.com/coronavirus-a-new-variant-of-coronavirus-was-found-in-finland-which-is-less-visible-in-the-pcr-test-than-before/[/url] or https://pledgetimes.com/coronavirus-a-new-variant-of-coronavirus-was-found-in-finland-which-is-less-visible-in-the-pcr-test-than-before/ ; The variant is named Fin-796H and has features that have also been observed in viral variants in Britain and South Africa, Vita Laboratories said in a statement.

-

According to Vita laboratories, the new variant does not find, for example, the N501Y mutation, which combines variants from Britain, South Africa and Brazil, and which is associated with more sensitive infectivity.

Next the variant is subjected to whole-genome sequencing, which allows analysis of the changes. The variant can then be compared to other known variant sequences.

-[url]https://vita.fi/uutiset/suomesta-loytynyt-taysin-uusi-koronavirusvariantti-mahdollisesti-vaikea-havaita-testeilla/[/url] or https://vita.fi/uutiset/suomesta-loytynyt-taysin-uusi-koronavirusvariantti-mahdollisesti-vaikea-havaita-testeilla/

One mutation in the variant prevents reliable detection of the virus by one of the methods recommended by the WHO last spring. This was observed when analyzing a sample from a patient with variant Covid-19 infection. Fortunately, Vita and probably also other laboratories performing coron diagnosis in Finland use methods that identify at least two gene regions of the virus. Thus, the infection will not go undetected anywhere in Finland. This may not be the case in other countries, so the finding may be of great international significance, says Sakari Jokiranta , Associate Professor of Clinical Microbiology at Vita Laboratories .

It is not yet known whether the coronary heart disease caused by the variant is abnormal. Based on the mutations observed, the infectivity of the virus may be high, as in the British variant, and at the same time, vaccines may be ineffective against it, as in the South African variant. However, evidence of the properties of the variant will only be obtained when more information is available on its prevalence and infection chains.

- It is still too early to say how widely the new Fin-796H variant has spread and where it originally developed. It is unlikely that such a different variant would have developed in Finland, as there is very little disease here. In southern Finland, however, the variant may have spread, because at least in the PCR screening test performed in the HUS region to detect the British variant, the new variant seems to be a conventional virus, not a variant, to our knowledge. Fortunately, however, the virus itself is detected in these tests as well. There is no reason to panic, although the rapid transformation of the virus is of concern both in terms of diagnostics and vaccination efficacy, Taru Meri, a docent in microbiological immunology responsible for corona diagnostics at Vita Laboratories, reassures.

DJ-Bad news

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2021 at 3:34am

This site is calling it a recombination.

Fin-796H: A new recombination of British and South Africa Variant appears in Finland

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2165998509825/fin-796h-a-new-recombination-of-british-and-south-africa-variant-appears-in-finland

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2021 at 3:43am

Had to happen....

That's what viruses do....

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2021 at 4:25pm

"While the researchers found that the B117 variant had no significant effect on the vaccine's ability to kill the virus in serum samples obtained from participants who had received their second vaccine dose a week before, they saw a 2.7-fold decrease in neutralizing antibodies against a partial panel of B1351 mutations and a 6.4-fold drop against the full set."


"Clinical data have shown in previous studies that the AstraZeneca/OxfordNovavax, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are not as effective in preventing symptomatic infections with B1351 as against other strains. Earlier this month, South Africa put its rollout of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine on hold after it was found to offer "minimal protection" against mild to moderate B1351 cases."


https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/907650-cidrap-pfizer-moderna-vaccines-may-be-less-effective-against-b1351-variant

"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2021 at 4:26pm

Originally posted by ksc ksc wrote:

This site is calling it a recombination.

Fin-796H: A new recombination of British and South Africa Variant appears in Finland

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2165998509825/fin-796h-a-new-recombination-of-british-and-south-africa-variant-appears-in-finland


And it may evade the current PCR tests.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2021 at 3:00am

Japan has new virus variant that may reduce vaccines’ efficacy

Health officials have confirmed Japan now has many cases of a new variant of the novel coronavirus that could make currently available COVID-19 vaccines less effective.

The mutated strain of the virus was detected in 91 patients in the Kanto region, with two more confirmed infected with the variant at airport quarantine checks, according to the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID). Tokyo Medical and Dental University on Feb. 18 also reported three cases of the variant in the capital.

“The variant could pose a risk to efforts to contain the spread of infections in the mid- to long-term,” an NIID official said.

The variant has the E484K mutation and is likely to have been brought in from abroad, officials said.

The mutated strain is believed to be capable of “immune escape,” meaning it can evade the body’s immune system. That is raising concerns that some of the immunity acquired through infections with other strains of the virus or vaccinations may not work sufficiently against the variant.

Some observers have pointed out that the COVID-19 vaccine developed by British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca Plc may be less effective against the variant, but the extent to which it could affect the vaccine’s efficacy remains unclear.

In studies published in U.S. medical journals, U.S. pharmaceutical company Pfizer Inc. and others concluded that the variant does not have a major impact on the effectiveness of its vaccine. Japan began inoculating its citizens with the vaccine on Feb. 17.

Countries across the globe are particularly worried about three kinds of mutated strains of the virus that emerged in Britain, South Africa and Brazil. All the variants have the N501Y mutation, which is feared to be more contagious.

The E484K mutation is also confirmed to be in some of the British variants, as well as the variants found in South Africa and Brazil. Japan has also reported every new variant that has been detected among patients in the country.

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14204131


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2021 at 5:40am

This is not good news.  Once the UK Variant was on the loose in the US, I knew we lost the battle against the virus.  This is going to get worse and worse until we put in a universal protocols to deal with it.  I have been offered the moderna Vaccine as a booster shot. Should i take it ? 

ME163, Vicki, Jill and Becky 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2021 at 7:51am

Would you be part of a new trial? I'd personally wait until they trialed it on some young healthy volunteers first.

Moderna making booster shot to fight Covid-19 variants

Moderna will develop a Covid-19 booster shot designed to be more effective against emerging strains of the coronavirus, the Massachusetts manufacturer announced Monday.

New strains of the coronavirus have emerged in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil, along with concerns that they could make vaccines less effective, and be more transmissible or deadly.

Moderna's announcement comes days after the U.S. government's top infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci, said that the Biden administration is "paying very close attention" to the variants. "There are alternative plans if we ever have to modify the vaccine," said Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, at a White House briefing Thursday.


Moderna is testing two booster-shot options — one specifically aimed at the South African variant and another to broadly fight new mutations. Laboratory research using blood from people and monkeys who had received the company's vaccine found that the U.K. variant did not appear to reduce the production of neutralizing antibodies. But the South African variant showed a sixfold reduction, the company said.

Other research has suggested the U.K. variant is more transmissible than previous versions of the virus. On Friday, a U.K. government science advisory board said there "is a realistic possibility" that the U.K. variant is also more deadly.

Moderna said the development of the booster is a precaution because its already-authorized two-dose regimen still offered substantial protection against the U.K. and South African strains in the lab study.

“As we seek to defeat the COVID-19 virus, which has created a worldwide pandemic, we believe it is imperative to be proactive as the virus evolves,” Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in a statement. The company is starting human trials for the South African booster shot “out of abundance of caution,” he added.

Moderna conducted the laboratory study in collaboration with NIAID, and has published the research online in bioRxiv ahead of peer review. The company said it will submit the study to a peer-reviewed journal.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/25/moderna-booster-shot-vaccine-covid-variant-462131


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2021 at 1:30pm

Originally posted by ME163 ME163 wrote:

This is not good news.  Once the UK Variant was on the loose in the US, I knew we lost the battle against the virus.  This is going to get worse and worse until we put in a universal protocols to deal with it.  I have been offered the moderna Vaccine as a booster shot. Should i take it ? 

ME163, Vicki, Jill and Becky 



I agree....

As to taking vaccine....

What have you got to lose?

Take care all 😷😉

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2021 at 12:09am

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/907769-what-little-we-currently-know-about-the-fin-796h-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/907769-what-little-we-currently-know-about-the-fin-796h-variant

As the following press release indicates, most PCR tests look at two or more pieces of the SARS-CoV-2 virus genome, and so a drop out on the N-gene target alone should not invalidate most tests.


We've seen a similar situation with the S-gene target failure (SGTF) on the B.1.1.7 variant with the Thermo Fisher Scientific TaqPath COVID-19 PCR test, and in that case, it actually has helped in the identification of potential variants.

So how big of a deal this turns out to be remains to be seen. As it is, this variant appears to have only been identified in one patient to date.


So we can file this under interesting, not alarming, for now.

DJ We need more info...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bradlux Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2021 at 12:57pm

Pfizer says variant identified in South Africa could significantly reduce protective antibodies from vaccine

https://worldabcnews.com/pfizer-says-variant-identified-in-south-africa-could-significantly-reduce-protective-antibodies-from-vaccine/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2021 at 7:34am

Did you guys see this article?  I am having trouble finding it in mainstream media though.


https://endtimeheadlines.org/2021/02/a-new-highly-resistant-covid-variant-has-emerged-in-california-and-it-could-make-this-plague-far-worse/?fbclid=IwAR2rUZn5iTu_ESiru-7159iJM9LzgYiT5ENs0yrIDKEpeLOZ6PF-MisPJlg


A

A New Highly Resistant COVID Variant Has Emerged In California, And It Could Make This Plague Far Worse

Feb 24, 2021 |     

New Highly Resistant C


I can't cut and paste the article because it has sooo many advertisements in it.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2021 at 8:50am

[here it is - I hope it helps - Technophobe]


A New Highly Resistant COVID Variant Has Emerged In California, And It Could Make This Plague Far Worse

Feb 24, 2021

(OPINION) Michael Snyder – Just when it seemed like the COVID pandemic may be subsiding, a new COVID strain has emerged in California that has the potential to change everything .

According to tests conducted by Dr. Charles Chiu and his team, this new strain appears to result in more severe illness, and it also appears to result in more people dying from the virus. Even more troubling, Chiu’s team discovered that there is “a two- to four-fold reduction in the ability of antibodies to fend off the variant virus”. In other words, those that have already been vaccinated may or may not have protection against this new variant .

When Californians start to figure out that the vaccines that they have been taking may not even be effective against the strain that is rapidly becoming dominant in their state, a lot of them won’t be happy. Of course, it is just a matter of time before this new strain travels to all of the other 49 states as well.

So what will happen if authorities are able to achieve their goal of vaccinating more than 100 million Americans but this new COVID strain continues to spread like wildfire? Instead of this pandemic “coming to an end”, we could possibly be facing a frightening new chapter.

According to two new studies that were just released, the California variant “causes severe disease and spreads quickly”…Two studies released Monday reveal some alarming findings about a California variant of COVID-19. The strain is showing up in half of the samples in 44 California counties and there are signs that it causes severe disease and spreads quickly.

Dr. Charles Chiu and his team have been studying this new strain relentlessly, and he is referring to it as “the devil”… In a study that helps explain the state’s dramatic surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths — and portends further trouble ahead — scientists at UC San Francisco said the cluster of mutations that characterizes the homegrown strain should mark it as a “variant of concern” on par with those from the United Kingdom, South Africa, and Brazil.

The Read More link leads to this:

http://themostimportantnews.com/a-new-highly-resistant-covid-variant-has-emerged-in-california-and-it-could-make-this-plague-far-worse/

..............................................................................................................[Which sadly, is far beyond my abilities to copy. - Technohobe]

                             

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2021 at 9:15am
[I don't like being beaten.  Here it is after all:]      

A New Highly Resistant COVID Variant Has Emerged In California, And It Could Make This Plague Far Worse


 

Just when it seemed like the COVID pandemic may be subsiding, a new COVID strain has emerged in California that has the potential to change everything.  According to tests conducted by Dr. Charles Chiu and his team, this new strain appears to result in more severe illness, and it also appears to result in more people dying from the virus.  Even more troubling, Chiu’s team discovered that there is “a two- to four-fold reduction in the ability of antibodies to fend off the variant virus”.  In other words, those that have already been vaccinated may or may not have protection against this new variant.  When Californians start to figure out that the vaccines that they have been taking may not even be effective against the strain that is rapidly becoming dominant in their state, a lot of them won’t be happy.

Of course it is just a matter of time before this new strain travels to all of the other 49 states as well.

So what will happen if authorities are able to achieve their goal of vaccinating more than 100 million Americans but this new COVID strain continues to spread like wildfire?

Instead of this pandemic “coming to an end”, we could possibly be facing a frightening new chapter.  According to two new studies that were just released, the California variant “causes severe disease and spreads quickly”…

Two studies[1] released Monday reveal some alarming findings about a California variant of COVID-19. The strain is showing up in half of the samples in 44 California counties and there are signs that it causes severe disease and spreads quickly.

Dr. Charles Chiu and his team have been studying this new strain relentlessly, and he is referring to it as “the devil”… [2]

In a study that helps explain the state’s dramatic surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths — and portends further trouble ahead — scientists at UC San Francisco said the cluster of mutations that characterizes the homegrown strain should mark it as a “variant of concern” on par with those from the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil.

“The devil is already here,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, who led the UCSF team of geneticists, epidemiologists, statisticians and other scientists in a wide-ranging analysis of the new variant, which they call B.1.427/B.1.429. “I wish it were different. But the science is the science.”

We are constantly being told to “follow the science”, and the science is telling us that this new variant will soon account for approximately 90 percent of all new infections in the state. [2]

That is not good news at all.

Dr. Chiu’s team was particularly interested in determining whether existing vaccines would work against this particular variant, and what they discovered was quite alarming…

To test whether antibodies could fend off this new strain, Chiu’s team tested the cultured virus in the lab against antibodies from people who were either vaccinated or had already been infected with the virus, although not this strain. They found a two- to four-fold reduction in the ability of antibodies to fend off the variant virus. This means that vaccines might have to be re-tooled to stay effective.

In other words, scientists may have to go back to square one and develop an entirely new vaccine.

But the new strains that have emerged in South Africa and Brazil have also exhibited serious resistance to the existing vaccines as well.

So which strain should vaccine makers target?

The South African strain and the Brazilian strain have both reached the United States, and it appears that they will be spreading rapidly too.

Needless to say, having so many dangerous mutations running around could be a real nightmare for health authorities.

Getting back to the new California variant, Dr. Chiu and his team also discovered that people that catch it have “significantly higher odds of being admitted to the Intensive Care Unit and dying”…

To learn whether the variant caused more severe disease, Chiu’s team studied the medical records of patients admitted for care at UCSF. After controlling for age, gender and ethnicity, it found that people infected with the variant had significantly higher odds of being admitted to the Intensive Care Unit and dying. 

That doesn’t sound good at all.

So if this becomes the dominant strain all over the U.S., our hospitals could potentially be more overwhelmed than ever.

When they examined the virus, Dr. Chiu and his team identified three critical mutations, and one of them has never been seen anywhere else…[3]

B.1.427/B.1.429’s genome includes three mutations that affect the crucial spike protein, which the virus uses to sneak into human cells and convert them into factories for its own production. One of those three mutations, dubbed L452R, affects the so-called receptor binding domain, helping the virus attach more firmly to target cells.

That adaptation has not been seen in coronavirus variants that have caused worry elsewhere.

Needless to say, this is not the end of the story.

If there is one thing that scientists agree upon, it is that COVID will continue to mutate.

In fact, one expert in California is warning that more COVID mutations will continue to emerge “forever”…[4]

According to UCSF Epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford, the California variant is one of four major ones circulating in the state.

“We’re going to keep seeing variants forever from this virus. Viruses mutate, they mutate all the time,” Dr. Rutherford said.

So if you were looking forward to the day when COVID would be completely wiped out, you can stop waiting.

It will still be with us when the next great pandemic inevitably comes along.


Source and a couple more links - to the author's book - and some about other emerging diseases:  http://themostimportantnews.com/a-new-highly-resistant-covid-variant-has-emerged-in-california-and-it-could-make-this-plague-far-worse/

[Technophobe again:  I dissagree with the author's conclusion that entirely new vaccines may be needed.  The new RNA vaccines lend themselves to very fast adaptation, way beyond anything conventional vaccines can be tweaked to do.  This new adaptability will definitely be needed for covid.  On that we agree.]



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2021 at 9:38am

Thanks Tech....so what do you make of the information in the article?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2021 at 11:35am

"A first in-state case of a highly transmissible coronavirus variant originally traced back to Brazil has been discovered in Alaska.

The case was first discovered on Tuesday in a specimen collected from a person in Anchorage who developed COVID-19 symptoms earlier this month and had no known travel history, a state public health official told the Daily News.

Comment: Nice soothing words from the State Epidemiologist (whom I've been in meetings with, he does nothing more than parrot the CDC)

"What’s also worrisome is that the Anchorage person who contracted the virus had no known travel history, which could indicate possible community spread, McLaughlin said.

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2021/02/24/rare-us-case-of-highly-contagious-covid-19-variant-from-brazil-has-been-discovered-in-alaska/?fbclid=IwAR0mKIV8bheri90TorXvJraKqjV32XNTbdOzt7kz5R-Qf_htpVLcLSxPIeM

My comment on my FB page:

The "could indicate possible community spread" is disingenuous. If the person didn't travel how else did the person become infected? FEDEX? Santa Claus? The good doctor could at least state that the evidence "indicates" or "community spread is likely"

The state of Alaska only sequences about 200 cases a day out of 25,000 tests. The fact that they stumbled across a P.1 case is like finding the needle in the haystack, unless there is a lot more needles in that haystack.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2021 at 11:40am

Michael Snyder is a doom porn jockey extraordinaire, to the point that I don't read him. That being said, the findings are worth reading. 


The question then would be if this variant is in 44 counties in CA, why have their numbers gone way down in the past two months?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2021 at 12:32pm

An article about the same subject was in the press here 2 days ago but it contained an additional line. It was a quote from Dr Chiu who said that the fear was that the California variant and the UK variant would meet in a patient and recombine to become something even worse. 

I'm sorry but I can't find the article to quote from it exactly, but that was his drift.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2021 at 12:57pm

"Asko Järvinen, the chief physician of infectious diseases at HUS, revealed yesterday to the public broadcasting company that the number of coronavirus patients has almost doubled in hospitals in the district in a week."

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908223-finland-critical-care-beds-filling-up-quickly-in-hus-largest-hospital-district-in-finland-february-23-2021#post908224

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2021 at 3:26am

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908248-a-new-coronavirus-variant-is-spreading-in-new-york-researchers-report-b-1-526[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908248-a-new-coronavirus-variant-is-spreading-in-new-york-researchers-report-b-1-526 ; A new form of the coronavirus is spreading rapidly in New York City, and it carries a worrisome mutation that may weaken the effectiveness of vaccines, two teams of researchers have found. The new variant, called B.1.526, first appeared in samples collected in the city in November. By the middle of this month, it accounted for about one in four viral sequences appearing in a database shared by scientists. One study of the new variant, led by a group at Caltech, was posted online on Tuesday. The other, by researchers at Columbia University, is not yet public.

... The Caltech researchers discovered the rise in B.1.526 by scanning for mutations in hundreds of thousands of viral genetic sequences in a database called GISAID. “There was a pattern that was recurring, and a group of isolates concentrated in the New York region that I hadn’t seen,” said Anthony West, a computational biologist at Caltech.

He and his colleagues found two versions of the coronavirus increasing in frequency: one with the E484K mutation seen in South Africa and Brazil, which is thought to help the virus partially dodge the vaccines; and another with a mutation called S477N, which may affect how tightly the virus binds to human cells. ...

And Abstract

Wide-scale SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing is critical to monitoring and understanding viral evolution during the ongoing pandemic. Variants first detected in the United Kingdom, South Africa, and Brazil have spread to multiple countries. We have developed a software tool, Variant Database (VDB), for quickly examining the changing landscape of spike mutations. Using this tool, we detected an emerging lineage of viral isolates in the New York region that shares mutations with previously reported variants. The most common sets of spike mutations in this lineage (now designated as B.1.526) are L5F, T95I, D253G, E484K or S477N, D614G, and A701V. This lineage appeared in late November 2020, and isolates from this lineage account for ~25% of coronavirus genomes sequenced and deposited from New York during February 2021.

PDF Format:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...043v2.full.pdf 

DJ The New York variant is different from the California variant(s 20C and 20G). The Cal.20C  has the L452R mutation and four others. That mutation is missing in the New York variant.  

On the Finland story [url]https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/18755-yle-critical-care-beds-filling-up-quickly-in-hus-largest-hospital-district-in-finland.html[/url] or https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/18755-yle-critical-care-beds-filling-up-quickly-in-hus-largest-hospital-district-in-finland.html it is unclear what variants are causing the increase in cases. It may be the [url]https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/news-in-brief/18735-new-covid-variant-found-in-finland-may-not-show-up-in-tests.html[/url] or https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/news-in-brief/18735-new-covid-variant-found-in-finland-may-not-show-up-in-tests.html is mixing with the UK (or other) variants ????

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2021 at 2:24pm

My take? 

We really need to step up our efforts.  With all our rescources*, we could still eliminate this virus worldwide.  If we do not, then all these new variants will continue to emerge.  Although each one is not a disaster, as we can tweak the RNA vaccines each time, every one is a risk of something much nastier and we should not always be playing 'catch up'.  Right now that is what we are doing.

I believe covid 19 will become endemic needing a tweaked booster every year and it will continue to take lives for perpetuity.  Not because we can't stop it, but because we failed to stop it, as we put other considerations first.  I believe it will shorten life-expectancy across the globe.  Each year it will take a few and 50 years on, the currently 'immune' youngsters will grow old enough to suffer its ravages - just as flu does today.  Not the huge horror of current numbers, but still significant amounts and by then we will just 'be used to it'.







* Vaccines, lockdowns, border closures, quarrantine, isolation, social distancing, mask wearing; ALL OVER THE WORLD.  No one is safe until everyone is safe.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2021 at 10:01pm

Techno, 

I agree that we should do everything we can to stop the spread=stop the variants. There are two risks in the variants;

1-One nasty mean ..... (etc) variant that goes for more/other ACE-2 receptors all over the body (because we have those receptors "everywhere"-you do not want widespread inflamation of bloodvessels...)

2-A mix of variants in wich treating one group of variants is "good"for other variants etc. A "jungle of covid-19 variants"...

The experts underestimated this virus and what it could do. (And we have the best experts-but they were expecting a flu-pandemic-not this corona"thing"). We should have stopped it-and still need to stop it the best we can. Covid19 has surprised us to many times allready ! 

New variants could-potentialy-be "very much worse"and (like in climate change) we wasted to much time and still do not have our priorities where they should be. It is very likely some newer "bad variants" may be emerging in Africa, Asia... 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2021 at 10:17pm

Techno....thanks for that post, I would say it was a good post, but it is rather depressing and is sort of where I feel we will be going with this in the long term.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2021 at 1:57am

DJ-The US itself-with very limited sequencing-has already SEVEN variants; [url]https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/14/world/covid-19-coronavirus[/url] or https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/14/world/covid-19-coronavirus

In a study posted on Sunday, a team of researchers reported seven growing lineages of the coronavirus, spotted in states across the country. All have gained a mutation at the exact same spot in their genes.

“There’s clearly something going on with this mutation,” said Jeremy Kamil, a virologist at Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center and a co-author of the new study.

It’s not clear yet whether this shared mutation makes the variants more contagious, but because it appears in a gene that influences how the virus enters human cells, the scientists are highly suspicious.

“I think there’s a clear signature of an evolutionary benefit,” Dr. Kamil said.

DJ-"evolutionary benefit" means the virus can spread "better"=more infectious. The study; [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.12.21251658v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.12.21251658v1 ; Independent genomic surveillance programs based in New Mexico and Louisiana contemporaneously detected the rapid rise of numerous clade 20G (lineage B.1.2) infections carrying a Q677P substitution in S. The variant was first detected in the US on October 23, yet between 01 Dec 2020 and 19 Jan 2021 it rose to represent 27.8% and 11.3% of all SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced from Louisiana and New Mexico, respectively. Q677P cases have been detected predominantly in the south central and southwest United States; as of 03 Feb 2021, GISAID data show 499 viral sequences of this variant from the USA. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the independent evolution and spread of at least six distinct Q677H sub-lineages, with first collection dates ranging from mid August to late November, 2020. Four 677H clades from clade 20G (B.1.2), 20A (B.1.234), and 20B (B.1.1.220, and B.1.1.222) each contain roughly 100 or fewer sequenced cases, while a distinct pair of clade 20G clusters are represented by 754 and 298 cases, respectively. Although sampling bias and founder effects may have contributed to the rise of S:677 polymorphic variants, the proximity of this position to the polybasic cleavage site at the S1/S2 boundary are consistent with its potential functional relevance during cell entry, suggesting parallel evolution of a trait that may confer an advantage in spread or transmission. Taken together, our findings demonstrate simultaneous convergent evolution, thus providing an impetus to further evaluate S:677 polymorphisms for effects on proteolytic processing, cell tropism, and transmissibility.

DJ-I would love to see this virus developing into a milder and/or less infectious variant. But so far a lot of variants  A-are more infectious (thus creating more pressure on the healthcare system-since vaccinations are limited and may not stop variants enough), B-hit younger age groups-often not vaccinated at all, supposed to be somehow immune C-increasing risks of co-infections in many hosts-not only human. 

DJ-There is a growing risk that after minks (still getting infected in many countries) another species may get "hit hard"; cat-likes, apes, pigs, camels (that were involved in MERS). With the pandemic spreading further-more new variants-more hosts will get infected. (The virus does not care if the host is a human or (other) animal-as long as it can reproduce. ) 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

Coronaviruses are a group of related RNA viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans and birds, they cause respiratory tract infections that can range from mild to lethal. Mild illnesses in humans include some cases of the common cold (which is also caused by other viruses, predominantly rhinoviruses), while more lethal varieties can cause SARSMERS, and COVID-19. In cows and pigs they cause diarrhea, while in mice they cause hepatitis and encephalomyelitis.

Coronaviruses constitute the subfamily Orthocoronavirinae, in the family Coronaviridae, order Nidovirales, and realm Riboviria.[5][4] They are enveloped viruses with a positive-sense single-stranded RNA genome and a nucleocapsid of helical symmetry.[6] The genome size of coronaviruses ranges from approximately 26 to 32 kilobases, one of the largest among RNA viruses.[7] They have characteristic club-shaped spikes that project from their surface, which in electron micrographs create an image reminiscent of the solar corona, from which their name derives.[8]

DJ-The Covid19 virus is "very family oriented" "loves reunions with all kind of long distance (supposed) familymembers", inviting all kind of guests-it is exactly doing what we do not want it to do ! 

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2021 at 3:45am

DJ 

[url]https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00283-020-09997-7[/url] or https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00283-020-09997-7

SIR and SEIR Models: Three and Four Compartments

An SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) model will add to the susceptible and infected compartments one that has R(t) recovered individuals. An SEIR model will add another compartment of E(t) “exposed” individuals who have been infected but cannot yet transmit the disease. These models result in systems of three or four differential equations that are based on the mass action principle and have variants of (3) at their core.

These models are particularly useful when a large fraction of the population becomes infected, thereby reducing considerably the number of susceptibles to infect. This can lead to “herd immunity,” which occurs when roughly 60 to 70 percent of the entire population is immune either because they have recovered and have developed immunity or have been vaccinated. This effect saturates the population with “uninfectables” and acts as a rate-limiting factor that can “snuff out” the epidemic.

DJ-The "horror-element" is an increasing number of (recombinant)variants infecting an increasing number of (human and non-human) hosts. With possibly unlimited number of re-infections and possibly unlimited number of possible hosts...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_mammals_by_population[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_mammals_by_populationIt is estimated that the total number of wild mammals in the world is about 130 billion.

There may be just under 8 billion humans on this planet-but if those humans-within a certain time-can get reinfected the pandemic will last longer. If besides humans (other) animals get (more and more) infected-by an increasing number of variants-you end up with a "multi species" pandemic. (In fact we may already be there allthough the millions of minks only are able to limited spread-we kill them by the millions to decrease that risk)

An exponential worst case scenario would mean endless variants reinfecting all kind of species till the number of variants or species to infect run out....

We are simply not doing enough to stop the exponential part of this pandemic. We seem to be unwilling to understand the very real risks. At present due to the number of infections and variants the exponential growth goes on-(but we rather slow down testing then face the major problem !) Sequencing worldwide is less then 5% at best. In many countries there is hardly any testing...worldwide we just got over 200 million  people vaccinated out of the 7,8 billion (just around 2,5%) with growing risk of covid variants spreading in other species...

We continu to underestimate this pandemic ! Comparing it to the Spanish Flu may give a false perspective. The H1N1 virus getting some sort of herd immunity-with limited spread (and in fact only humans infected-no real variants during the pandemic time). 

We have a BIG problem !!!!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2021 at 5:49am

Speaking of variants and getting out of this crisis- You would not believe how many families are planning the upcoming Spring Breaks - I am in a local moms group-- going to Disney World in Florida! (I live in Virginia)

No worries about Covid except wondering how packed the planes will be- everyone that has been recently (!) are saying the planes are jammed, only one airline has the middle seat empty, the rest do not.
And...the covidiot families are by and large "just not worried about the pandemic" in their words. They always preface their posts with "don't speak to me about Covid - I know its out there" 

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2021 at 7:25am

Stupid reaps as stupid sows.  And you really can't fix stupid.  What p*sees me off is it is all well and good if someone doesn't care about getting him or herself sick.  But how many others can they infect?  They don't seem to care about that!  Very frustrating!

When future generations chronicle our behavior during this pandemic, it's the selfishness that is going to stick out and be talked about.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2021 at 1:11pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

We really need to step up our efforts.  With all our rescources*, we could still eliminate this virus worldwide.  

* Vaccines, lockdowns, border closures, quarrantine, isolation, social distancing, mask wearing; ALL OVER THE WORLD.  No one is safe until everyone is safe.

I think you are being extremely optimistic here. We could have eliminated it a year ago, but now it's so widespread, I just don't think we can put the genie back in the bottle. We've had an outbreak of the UK variant here in the last 3 weeks and it's spread to 11 people from an unknown source, and despite all the above mentioned precautions and complete genomic testing, our scientists have linked 3 of those cases to casual contact and concluded that the virus spread in the air. We had a quick 3 day lockdown and all took precautions and it appears to be under control again but we have over 1000 people self isolating at home for 14 days as a precaution. It all came from one woman who worked at the laundry facility for Air NZ. 

When something is this contagious, this transmissable, it would be impossible to eradicate it when it's presenting on multiple fronts. It's out there and we'll just have to all learn to live with it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2021 at 1:59pm

I was talking to someone about vaccine and variants ,

Seems to me people think that once enough have vaccine it's all over.....

I said we won't be able to vaccinate enough people quickly enough and we will always be playing catch up,

Added to that ,there still the threat of an Avian flu,when you mention a flu virus  thats "still out there"

With the potential of a slate wiper, people don't like that thought......

One great and positive thing out of all of this is 

People  don't laugh at me now 

When I say anything about a 

Pandemic.....

And I never miss the opportunity to say.....

"Told you so".....

Take care all 😷😉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2021 at 11:52pm

DJ-With most variants not (yet) being detected (in humans or other hosts) the NY variant is showing up ; [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/intelligence-researchers-warn-against-new-york-covid-strain/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/intelligence-researchers-warn-against-new-york-covid-strain/ ; Military Intelligence (AMAN) researchers are warning against letting the newly discovered “New York” coronavirus variant being allowed to reach Israel. They describe it as rapidly transmissible compared with other variants and linked to cases of patients being re-infected after recovering from the virus. The extensive ties between New York and Israel make this threat substantial and every effort is advised to exclude its entry.

DJ-The idea of "vaccinating ourselves out of this pandemic" is just as insane as the earlier "herd immunity faillure"...both supported by "experts" missing that a corona-pandemic may be different then a flu-pandemic ! Also not willing to see the goal of Big Pharma is profit not public healthcare...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/908493-microbiol-resour-announc-genome-sequence-of-a-sars-cov-2-strain-from-bangladesh-that-is-nearly-identical-to-united-kingdom-sars-cov-2-variant-b-1-1-7[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/908493-microbiol-resour-announc-genome-sequence-of-a-sars-cov-2-strain-from-bangladesh-that-is-nearly-identical-to-united-kingdom-sars-cov-2-variant-b-1-1-7 ; Abstract

The coding-complete genome sequence of a coronavirus strain, SARS-CoV-2/human/BGD/G039392/2021, obtained from a symptomatic male patient with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Dhaka, Bangladesh, is reported. The strain G039392 is 99.9% identical to the UK variant B.1.1.7.

DJ-More at the link [url]https://mra.asm.org/content/10/8/e00100-21[/url] or https://mra.asm.org/content/10/8/e00100-21 First case in 50 y/o male reported january 6 2021 in Dhaka-BanglaDesh. DJ-Unclear if the (asymptomatic) case was a mutated UK variant or a BanglaDesh  (BD) variant looking very similar-if the BD has its own UK-like variant other countries may expect the same developments.

Mexican variant ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/908489-sci-rep-structural-insights-into-sars-cov-2-spike-protein-and-its-natural-mutants-found-in-mexican-population[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/908489-sci-rep-structural-insights-into-sars-cov-2-spike-protein-and-its-natural-mutants-found-in-mexican-populationwe observed three mutations of spike (S) protein located at amino acids H49Y, D614G, and T573I.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908454-cidrap-cdc-head-warns-vigilance-needed-in-light-of-covid-19-variant-b117[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908454-cidrap-cdc-head-warns-vigilance-needed-in-light-of-covid-19-variant-b117 ; "Ten percent of cases are now B117, up from 1% to 4% a few weeks ago," Walensky said. What the nation needs to prevent a fourth spike of viral transmission due to B117, Walensky said, is mass vaccination, which is "imminent."  

DJ-the Dr.J.C. link [url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html giving old info on variants in the US. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 may give better info ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908445-covid-19-rips-through-south-african-townships-leaving-a-generation-facing-a-world-without-adults[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908445-covid-19-rips-through-south-african-townships-leaving-a-generation-facing-a-world-without-adults DJ-If you do not like the outcome of testing-stop testing. Here in NL healthservices may "face communication problems" because of the coming elections. Even rich developed states go for "do'nt test-do'nt tell strategy". 

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/ may be a good site for variants in animals. This third wave most likely will bring (more) of this pandemic into other hosts then human ones. The pandemic did spread to minks-but we killed the minks in NL, DK by the millions to deal with that part of the pandemic. Other countries (US, Poland, Russia) have a choice in mass vaccination or mass murder of these minks. 

We are only seeing the top of the iceberg-maybe just 1% of all "developments"or less-in fact we are "blind" in this pandemic due to lack of testing (both in humans and other animals) and sequencing-capacity. Above this is the idea of "this pandemic to be somehow being limited"-"it will stop"...There is a chance "it will stop"-and that would be more then welcome ! It is far more realistic however to deal with the fact that it may not stop ! Again this is NOT a flu-virus but a corona-virus able to infect much more species than "just humans"...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2021 at 1:12am

I go back to the old old story.........

We have never found a cure for the common cold !!!!!!!


 how we get out of this is anyone's guess......

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2021 at 4:14am

A lot of SARS-CoV-2 variants, "scariants", chatter over the last few days.

Let's cut through the atrocious reporting and sloppy science, since there are signals in the underlying data that are of interest and may, or may not, be important. 

Variant
Variant of Interest (VOI)
Variant under Investigations (VUI)
Variant of Concern (VOC) 
The need for coordination is critical. Too many examples lately of scientists finding something (they find) interesting and then heading straight to the media - with limited data, no studies available, and no coordination with local health departments.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1365461953775235073.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2021 at 4:41am

"Scariants" may be a good word-I think "expecting to see variants" can become a self fulfilling prophecy. Good defenitions on when a series of mutations should be seen as a variant would help. 

However the other side of this story is the "crisis factor"-we need better sequencing faster to discover/recognize "mutations" faster. I think many people feel we are running behind "escalating facts"...Panic does not help but indifference and "hopium"-expecting "a miracle solution" also does not help. 

My impression is "experts" (and today we have better scientists the ever before !) may be missing "essentials" from this pandemic from the start. If these experts would be open about that-"we did get it wrong in the beginning" then some trust can return. 

Since these experts advise often makes government policies being open on faillures in the recent past are welcome. We are all humans-in this pandemic we learn every day. Experts did not expect a corona-virus to cause such a pandemic. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2021 at 5:24am

[url]https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/news-in-brief/18781-new-coronavirus-variant-could-be-more-dangerous-for-young-people.html[/url] or https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/news-in-brief/18781-new-coronavirus-variant-could-be-more-dangerous-for-young-people.html

Young people could be more vulnerable to a new mutation of the COVID-19 virus, according to the Helsinki University Hospital (HUS).

Asko Järvinen, head of infectious diseases at HUS, told Ilta Sanomat that Finland has seen a surge in cases of the highly contagious new variant, which was first detected in the UK. 

While research on how this strain affects different age groups is still ongoing, reports from Iraq indicate that it is infecting age groups that the original virus did not, including children.   

In Finland, people below the age of 30 account for the highest number of cases. The new mutation, which is thought to be deadlier than the original virus variants, has also resulted in 30–40 per cent more hospital stays. 

In the past few weeks, the HUS hospital district has registered more young coronavirus patients in hospital wards and intensive care units than ever before. 

Järvinen suggests that while the UK variant might cause more severe symptoms, the risk of death for young people remains low compared to those in high-risk groups and the elderly. 

The strain has spread at an alarming rate, and Järvinen advocates more stringent restrictions to contain it. Finland reported 620 new COVID- 19 infections on Sunday.

and [url]https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/18766-hs-and-yle-finnish-government-to-declare-state-of-emergency-in-coming-days.html[/url] or https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/18766-hs-and-yle-finnish-government-to-declare-state-of-emergency-in-coming-days.html ; THE GOVERNMENT of Prime Minister Sanna Marin (SDP) has made an in-principle decision on declaring a state of emergency over the coronavirus epidemic in Finland,

DJ; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics Finland has at least 17 cases of the SA variant. The Finland variant may evade PCR testing. [url]https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/news-in-brief/18735-new-covid-variant-found-in-finland-may-not-show-up-in-tests.html[/url] or https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/news-in-brief/18735-new-covid-variant-found-in-finland-may-not-show-up-in-tests.html 

See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908310-finland-40-of-persons-over-80-vaccinated-against-covid-19-coronavirus-amid-b1-1-7-surge-3-week-lockdown-to-start-march-8-february-23-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908310-finland-40-of-persons-over-80-vaccinated-against-covid-19-coronavirus-amid-b1-1-7-surge-3-week-lockdown-to-start-march-8-february-23-2021 =[url]https://news.yahoo.com/finland-declares-state-emergency-covid-114443757.html[/url] or https://news.yahoo.com/finland-declares-state-emergency-covid-114443757.html

The decision comes as new variants contribute to a sharp rise in infections in the country, which has already closed its borders. The state of emergency would also allow the government to further shut schools and limit movement between regions.

"The government sees it necessary that we all have fewer contacts," Prime Minster Sanna Marin told a news conference. "Everyone now has the opportunity to impact how the spring and summer will turn out."


Several Finnish regions have seen a rapid rise in COVID-19 infections in the past two weeks, with outbreaks among skiers in Lapland and workers at shipping yards and construction sites.

DJ-It would be good to have more statistics on variants per country. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bradlux Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2021 at 11:52am

Drug manufacturer Moderna says it will begin testing a variant-specific version of its COVID-19 vaccine that would target the B1351 variant first detected in South Africa.  

The company has previously reported that its original two-dose vaccine — already approved for use in Canada — appears to provide protection against the B117 variant first detected in the U.K., as well as the B1351 variant, though its own research suggests it may be less effective against the latter. 

https://worldabcnews.com/moderna-begins-studying-potential-covid-19-vaccine-booster-targetting-variant-first-detected-in-south-africa/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2021 at 1:07pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2021 at 6:40pm


The P.1 coronavirus strain, first identified in Brazil, is able to bypass natural immunity developed by prior infections more easily than other variants, the Financial Times reported, citing joint research from several universities.

According to the data, the strain is between 1.4 and 2.2 times more transmissible than others, while also being "able to evade 25%-61% of protective immunity elicited by previous infection" with other variants, the newspaper said.

https://www.teletrader.com/brazil-covid-variant-can-evade-natural-immunity-report/news/details/54766106?internal=1

"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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