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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

new variants

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2021 at 11:30pm

DJ-To see how corona-virus diseases will develop in humans we should learn from how it evolved in other animals for decades; [url]file:///home/chronos/u-6a204c8e63e7def0ddbd413be1e353ce67875461/MyFiles/Downloads/Na2021_Article_AComprehensiveReviewOfSARS-CoV.pdf[/url] or file:///home/chronos/u-6a204c8e63e7def0ddbd413be1e353ce67875461/MyFiles/Downloads/Na2021_Article_AComprehensiveReviewOfSARS-CoV.pdf DJ-A long but very good story on what to expect !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread?view=stream (latest activity) lots of info; A team led by researchers at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine has uncovered how those SARS-CoV-2 mutations are happening: the virus is deleting portions of its genetic sequence that control the spike proteinThis infamous little protein, which resembles an armor-clad pin with a drunken wobble, is how the virus gets into the cells; it's also the main target of coronavirus vaccines (as well as antibodies created by infection). Understanding just how it is changing may help us prepare better treatments and vaccines to fight back against new strains.
........Worse, changes to such a critical piece of the virus can also make it harder for our immune systems to recognize it as the same familiar foe. "Once it's gone, it's gone, and if it's gone in an important part of the virus that the antibody 'sees,' then it's gone for good," Duprex said.

DJ-New variants and illnesses on their way...Europe must prepare its medical sector to cope with an “era of pandemics”, the European Commission president said, as she warned the bloc was still in its most difficult period for Covid-19 vaccine deliveries. Ursula von der Leyen told the Financial Times that the EU could not afford to sit still even once Covid-19 has been overcome, as she described her plans for a Europewide fast-reaction system designed to respond more quickly to emerging medical threats.

“Europe is determined to enlarge its strength in vaccine production,” she said in a telephone interview. “It’s an era of pandemics we are entering. If you look at what has been happening over the past few years, I mean from HIV to Ebola to MERS to SARS, these were all epidemics which could be contained, but we should not think it is all over when we’ve overcome Covid-19. The risk is still there.” Von der Leyen last month unveiled plans for a biodefence preparedness plan called the HERA Incubator, which will combine researchers, biotech companies, manufacturers and public authorities to monitor emerging threats and work on adapting vaccines....

Vaccine complecations; Two viral-vector Ebola vaccines have been cleared for use. However, there is but one inhibition about the use of viral-vector technology. Some fear that people could develop an immunity to the vaccine itself, potentially making it less effective against new variants of the coronavirus or another type of outbreak. A viral-vector Covid-19 vaccine developed in China didn’t perform as well in some people during testing because subjects had pre-existing immunity to the underlying virus that was used.

So; Animals including pangolins, primates and sea turtles are seen at a Nigerian wet market
Wild animals that are thought to have been illegally killed are found both dead and alive at Oluwu fish market

Exclusive footage shows vendors keeping animals in unhygienic conditions and not wearing any form of PPE

Experts warn environments like these are a perfect melting pot for zoonotic diseases, such as SARS-CoV-2
Shocking footage seen by MailOnline reveals the appalling state of Nigerian wet markets which have the potential 
to cause future disease outbreaks in humans.

This is not good news-other diseases are also possibly potential pandemics...

Stay healthy (both in body and mind) !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2021 at 7:42am

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/03/02/coronavirus-positive-test-rate-falls-9-viral-reproduction-rising[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/03/02/coronavirus-positive-test-rate-falls-9-viral-reproduction-rising ; It pointed to its new mid-month calculation that every 100 people contagious with the infection passed the virus on to 102 others, making the basic reproduction (R) number of all viral variants 1.02. The R-number of the variant that was dominant last year rose from 0.90 on February 5 to 1.02 a week later. The B117 variant from the UK that emerged in the Netherlands in December had a R-number that rose from 1.14 to 1.26. Another more contagious variant which originated in South Africa now has a calculated R-number of 1.37, meaning 100 contagious people will spread it to 137 others.

DJ-Sequencing in NL is limited-they may undercount variants. Also in NL only testing with symptoms or contact with someone who tested positive or has symptoms. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics NL has at least 5 P1 variant (Brazil) cases. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics NL has at least 87 SA variant cases. But both variants must be widespread in Europe and have a high R0 (The SA has a R0 of 1,37 february 12)

In NL cases in the old are decreasing-the general view is linking that with vaccinations. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908643-finland-new-coronavirus-variant-could-be-more-dangerous-for-young-people?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908643-finland-new-coronavirus-variant-could-be-more-dangerous-for-young-people?view=stream Could it be variants are already showing they infect younger age groups ? (That does not rule out vaccines offering protection-but there is more in the story...)

As a reminder; the Finnish variant evades (some) PCR-tests...other variants could be spreading and testing simply is not finding it. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908673-much-of-the-world-is-seeing-coronavirus-cases-fall-but-brazil%E2%80%99s-outbreak-is-worse-than-ever?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908673-much-of-the-world-is-seeing-coronavirus-cases-fall-but-brazil%E2%80%99s-outbreak-is-worse-than-ever?view=stream ;
Politicians from across the spectrum voiced anger and exasperation at the deteriorating situation on Monday, after Brazil’s weekly average of Covid deaths hit its highest level since the epidemic began last February and hospitals around the country reported being swamped.

According to the newspaper O Globo, intensive care units in 17 of Brazil’s 26 states were near capacity, while six states and the capital Brasília had run out of intensive care beds altogether.
“I don’t know where this will end … The country is running the risk of becoming one big Manaus,” Mandetta warned in reference to the Amazonian capital which made international headlines in January after hospitals ran out of oxygen because of a Covid surge.

DJ-(South) Africa seems to be claiming their variant(s) are decreasing in cases-or did they give up on testing ? ([url]https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/category/covid-19-in-africa/[/url] or https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/category/covid-19-in-africa/ DJ-With most of the "news" on vaccines-also the Dutch CDC has a lot of "propaganda" on the vaccine roll-out...we have elections coming...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908683-germany-to-extend-covid-19-lockdown-until-march-28-retail-sales-down-more-than-expected-in-january-march-2-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908683-germany-to-extend-covid-19-lockdown-until-march-28-retail-sales-down-more-than-expected-in-january-march-2-2021 

DJ-Many smaller shops, restaurants etc face bankruptcy...in many countries. Public pressure for "reopening" is growing while variants are also increasing. Governments fail to have long term (economy) plans. There is no future for air-travel but KLM did get 4 billion € from the Dutch government...while small companies face debts and have to sell their house, accept Red Cross food aid...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2021 at 7:39am

DJ-As an indication today the Dutch CDC reported in NL 1279 UK variant cases R0 going down from 1,26 last week to 1,06 "this week"-three weeks ago. 

For the SA variant NL 69 cases R0 going from 1,37 to 1,01 "this week"-also 3 weeks earlier. (The R0 is calculated on basis of all data available-so there is always a gap.)

Three weeks ago 2 out of 3 new Dutch cases were the UK variant. The P1/P2 variant so far are below 5 and not increasing. 

Allthough a bit early for defenitive conclusions for now it could be variants may be under control in NL. General R0 went down to 0,98. Since vaccinations are not yet far spread-most in the very old and HCW-ers the R0 going under 1 is based on NPI. 

A few remarks;

-testing is decreasing and was not very good so far-a lot of cases may have been missed. 

-Both the UK and SA variants R0 are still above 1-so reopening to soon can bring problems.

-More cases in younger age groups-that trend will increase when the older age groups more get vaccinated. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2021 at 12:42pm

[url]https://www.rt.com/news/517578-coronavirus-variants-escape-vaccines-fears/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/news/517578-coronavirus-variants-escape-vaccines-fears/

A new study examining the efficacy of current generation of vaccines against the UK and South Africa variants of SARS-CoV-2 makes for sobering reading, and raises the specter of widespread reinfection.

The study, published in Nature on March 8, warns that the current generation of vaccines and monoclonal antibody treatments may lose the arms race against the coronavirus, raising the daunting, open-ended possibility of reinfection unless vaccine rollout is greatly expedited worldwide to prevent further mutations. 

The study’s findings are currently being borne out amid the latest results concerning the Novavax vaccine, which reported a 90 percent efficacy rate against the UK variant but only 49.4 percent efficacy in combating the South African variant. 

“Our study and the new clinical trial data show that the virus is traveling in a direction that is causing it to escape from our current vaccines and therapies that are directed against the viral spike,” says the study’s lead author, David Ho.

Ho warned that, with continuing “rampant spread” of the virus in certain areas of the globe, humanity “may be condemned to chasing after the evolving SARS-CoV-2 continually, as we have long done for influenza virus.” 

He called for redoubled mitigation efforts in concert with expedited vaccine rollouts, arguing that time is of the essence when it comes to eradicating the threat posed by the coronavirus permanently, rather than allowing it to mutate and linger indefinitely. 

Ho and his team found that antibodies in recipients of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines were less effective at neutralizing the UK and South African variants, with a two-fold drop in efficacy in the case of the former, and up to an 8.5-fold drop in neutralizing activity with the latter. 

“The drop in neutralizing activity against the South Africa variant is appreciable, and we’re now seeing, based on the Novavax results, that this is causing a reduction in protective efficacy,” Ho says. 

The study did not examine the Brazilian variant, which boasts similar mutations in the spike protein to the UK and South African variants. 

“The concern here is that reinfection might be more likely if one is confronted with these variants, particularly the South Africa one,” Ho says.

DJ-[url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03398-2[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03398-2 ;

The prospects of ending this pandemic rest on the development of effective interventions. Single and combination monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapeutics have received emergency use authorization1–3, with more in the pipeline4–7. Furthermore, multiple vaccine constructs have shown promise8, including two with ~95% protective efficacy against COVID-199,10. However, these interventions were directed toward the initial SARS-CoV-2 that emerged in 2019. The recent emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.1.7 in the UK11 and B.1.351 in South Africa12 is of concern because of their purported ease of transmission and extensive mutations in the spike protein. We now report that B.1.1.7 is refractory to neutralization by most mAbs to the N-terminal domain (NTD) of the spike and relatively resistant to a few mAbs to the receptor-binding domain (RBD). It is not more resistant to convalescent plasma or vaccinee sera. Findings on B.1.351 are more worrisome in that this variant is not only refractory to neutralization by most NTD mAbs but also by multiple individual mAbs to the receptor-binding motif on RBD, largely owing to an E484K mutation. Moreover, B.1.351 is markedly more resistant to neutralization by convalescent plasma (9.4 fold) and vaccinee sera (10.3-12.4 fold). B.1.351 and emergent variants13,14 with similar spike mutations present new challenges for mAb therapy and threaten the protective efficacy of current vaccines.

DJ-The way out may be in NPI/lockdowns...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2021 at 1:38pm

 

Remember B117 SARS-CoV-2 variant that was more infectious?


Two weeks ago, indications emerged it was also more deadly. Preprint was posted today. It has 67% higher hazard of death -- all the more so in men, the elderly, and those with comorbid conditions.

Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England (medrxiv.org)

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2021 at 6:20pm

This was circulating so long ago that I have to believe that we already have had it in the US and it was part of the rise in cases for this past surge.  So I may be clueless here or over optimistic, but I am not foreseeing another large surge.  Fingers crossed!

NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2021 at 12:18am

Stay away from the click bait, the vaccines approved in the US are highly effective against all known variants. Hospitalizations and deaths have been almost eliminated in the vaccinated population. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/vaccines-are-working-shouldnt-panic-variants-rcna372

All three vaccines appear to offer strong protection against the U.K. variant. In early analyses, both the Moderna and the Pfizer vaccines were found to be less protective against the South African variant, although neutralizing antibodies, which can bind to viruses and block them from getting into cells, remained above protective levels for both.

Johnson & Johnson conducted trials in South Africa, where the variant first identified there is widespread, and found that its vaccine was 64 percent effective at preventing moderate to severe disease. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was also found to be 66 percent effective against the variant that was first reported in Brazil. In trials, the vaccine prevented 100 percent of hospitalizations and deaths related to Covid-19. 

And according to a lab study published March 8 in the New England Journal of Medicine, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine appears to offer strong protection against the variant first reported in Brazil. That study was conducted using blood samples taken from people who had received the vaccine.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2021 at 1:08am

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909265-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-neutralizes-brazil-variant-in-lab-study-astrazeneca-vaccine-also-appears-effective-against-brazil-covid-19-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909265-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-neutralizes-brazil-variant-in-lab-study-astrazeneca-vaccine-also-appears-effective-against-brazil-covid-19-variant ;(link https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-pfizer-brazil-idUSKBN2B02JC?taid=6046ac74eaf59800011ccd4d&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter);

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE was able to neutralize a new variant of the coronavirus spreading rapidly in Brazil, according to a laboratory study published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Monday.

Blood taken from people who had been given the vaccine neutralized an engineered version of the virus that contained the same mutations carried on the spike portion of the highly contagious P.1 variant first identified in Brazil, the study conducted by scientists from the companies and the University of Texas Medical Branch found.

The scientists said the neutralizing ability was roughly equivalent the vaccine’s effect on a previous less contagious version of the virus from last year. The spike, used by the virus to enter human cells, is the primary target of many COVID-19 vaccines.

In previously published studies, Pfizer had found that its vaccine neutralized other more contagious variants first identified in the United Kingdom and South Africa, although the South African variant may reduce protective antibodies elicited by the vaccine. Pfizer has said it believes its current vaccine is highly likely to still protect against the South African variant. However, the drugmaker is planning to test a third booster dose of their vaccine as well as a version retooled specifically to combat the variant in order to better understand the immune response. 

DJ The vaccine outlook is good-one can only hope Russian, Chinese vaccins-most used in Latin America offer the same protection. Brazil did see vaccinations stopped by bolsonaro "because the virus is non-sense"...Still the global number of people waiting for vaccinations are in the billions. More vaccines are needed (as long as they offer protection-does not matter from what country..) 

The RT/Nature link (I posted yesterday) indicates not all studies/experts see maximum protection. In (other) animals corona virusses manage to evade vaccins. But for now it may be "the best we have" in combination with NPI...

-roni3470; The US did see higher numbers recently but most likely most linked to California and New York variants...The UK variant so far is only widespread in Florida mostly...other variants still can become a risk. The CDC is still "limited" in sequencing capacity so-basicly hardly knows what variants are spreading...(was it 3% of all new cases being sequenced ? Or even less ?)

The US strategy is maximum vaccination. A problem is that those ("black"/Afro-American, Hispanics, but also some in Jewish communities) most suffering from this pandemic often will not take the vaccine. 

The main problem in this pandemic is in the large numbers...the virus/variants being that widespread. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bradlux Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2021 at 4:50am

Here’s a glimpse of what life might look like in the next phase of mass vaccination against COVID-19, a peek at a future where people are increasingly immune to the deadly virus.

Ahead of Canada in the sprint to vaccinate its citizens, the United States has just released its recommendations for what its newly vaccinated residents should and shouldn’t change.

It’s a useful roadmap for what the coming months might look like.

There’s some good news, and less-good news, in the guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control released Monday. They include numerous caveats, starting with a big one: these instructions apply only to people who have been fully vaccinated.

https://worldabcnews.com/once-youve-been-vaccinated-u-s-releases-recommended-dos-and-donts-2/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2021 at 5:39am

Officials confident in COVID vaccine as CT reports first UK variant death (ctpost.com)

While Connecticut has reported its first death associated with the highly contagious UK variant of the coronavirus, officials remain confident the vaccine will offer ample protection.


A state Department of Public health official said Tuesday the person was between the ages of 30 and 40, but could not disclose any other information, including where the person lived or if they had traveled before becoming ill. The official said the person was among 81 confirmed Connecticut cases associated with what is known as the B.1.1.7 variant of the virus.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2021 at 11:06pm

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/909724-new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-the-philippines-p-3-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/909724-new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-the-philippines-p-3-variant ;link to [url]https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/03/new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-the-philippines/[/url] or https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/03/new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-the-philippines/ ;

Researchers in the Philippines have discovered a new coronavirus variant which belongs to the same lineage as the Brazilian variant, officials say, but there’s currently not enough data to determine whether it poses a public health threat.

The health department said in a statement Saturday that the Philippine Genome Center had recently found a unique set of mutations, including both E484K and N501Y mutations, in 85 cases. The number of confirmed cases has since risen to 98.

“Upon verification with the Phylogenetic Assignment of Named Global Outbreak Lineages (PANGOLIN), the said samples with these mutations have been reassigned to the P.3 variant, belonging to the B.1.1.28 lineage, to which the P.1 variant also belongs,” the department said.

P.1 is what is commonly referred to as the Brazilian coronavirus variant. Both P.1 and the new P.3 variants have mutations in the spike protein, including E484K and N501Y mutations. This raises concern about the potential for increased transmissibility and immune escape.

It’s still unclear whether the new variant in the Philippines will also be designated as a variant of concern. “Current available data are insufficient to conclude whether the variant will have significant public health implications,” the health department said.

On Friday, Japan’s health ministry said a traveler from the Philippines had been infected with a new coronavirus variant which poses a similar level of threat as those first discovered in the UK, South Africa, and Brazil. The traveler, a man in his 60s, was asymptomatic.

DJ-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 has been updated now with 11 variants. On the P3; 

On 18 February 2021, the Department of Health of the Philippines confirmed the detection of two mutations of COVID-19 in Central Visayas (known as 'Region 7') after samples from patients were sent to undergo genome sequencing. The mutations were later named as E484K and N501Y, which were detected in 37 out of 50 samples, with both mutations co-occurrent in 29 out of these. There were no official names for the variants and the full sequence was yet to be identified.[101]

On March 13, the Department of Health confirmed the mutations, calling it P.3 variant. On the same day, it also confirmed the first Lineage P.1 COVID-19 case in the country.[102] Although the P.1 and P.3 variants stem from the same lineage B.1.1.28, the department also confirmed that the P.3 variant is more transmissible than the P.1 variant. The Philippines has 98 cases of P.3 variant as of March 13, 2021. E484K and N501Y mutations are both found in “variants of concern” such as those first found in the UK (B.1.1.7), South Africa (501.V2), and Brazil (P.1), with both mutations present in the latter two variants.[103]

E484K is sometimes referred to as an “escape mutation” since it allows the virus to escape the body’s immune system. Because of this, some researchers fear that variants with the E484K mutation may make vaccines less effective, although scientists have said that vaccines should still offer some protection regardless of the variant, especially against severe cases of COVID-19

DJ The P3 variant is more transmissible than the P1 variant. The E484K (EeK !!!) make vaccines less effective...

Basicly yet another variant "impossible to control". Most rich countries seek protection in mass vaccinations. It most likely will offer limited protection and mean "trillions of €/$ for Big Pharma"-there are economic limitations as well...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 14 2021 at 6:09am

DJ The Phillipines [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/philippines/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/philippines/ cases are going up the last days-march 13 had almost 5000 new cases even with limited testing (84,000 per 1,000,000). 

[url]https://www.rappler.com/nation/doh-confirms-detection-new-covid-19-variant-found-in-philippines[/url] or https://www.rappler.com/nation/doh-confirms-detection-new-covid-19-variant-found-in-philippines and [url]https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1888669/Manila/Local-News/Philippines-detects-P1-announces-P3-variant-from-Central-Visayas[/url] or https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1888669/Manila/Local-News/Philippines-detects-P1-announces-P3-variant-from-Central-Visayas Most likely the P3 variant is far over the  almost 100 detected cases. 

It is very likely the Phillippines may face a "Brazil scenario" with even more limited healthcare. Also further spread in the region-Indonesia, Malaysia, etc. is likely. 

-With limited reporting East Africa-Kenya, Tanzania may be close to a health crisis with the SA variant widespread. See [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics .

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Tanzania[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Tanzania .

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Kenya[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Kenya 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2021 at 10:20am

[url]https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210316-france-investigating-new-coronavirus-variant-detected-in-brittany[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210316-france-investigating-new-coronavirus-variant-detected-in-brittany

A new coronavirus variant has been found in the French region of Brittany, the French health ministry said in a statement late Monday, adding that an initial analysis did not show this new variant to be more serious or more transmissible than others.


The health ministry said the new variant had been found in a cluster of eight cases in a hospital centre in Lannion, several of which had not been detected by PCR tests.

Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests are used to detect the presence of an antigen rather than the presence of the body’s immune response, or antibodies.

Officials said researchers at the Institut Pasteur were investigating whether genetic modifications had resulted in the new variant being more difficult to detect. 

“Investigations will take place to determine how this variant reacts to vaccination and to antibodies developed during prior COVID infections,” Brittany’s regional health authority said in a statement.


International health agencies have been alerted to the discovery of the new variant.


-

France's government has resisted calls for a new lockdown in the face of rising cases, with daily infections hovering well above the 20,000-mark.  

Its struggling vaccination drive hit a new roadblock on Monday as France joined other European countries in suspending the use of AstraZeneca jabs amid concerns over possible serious side-effects.

See also [urlhttps://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/246327-covid-what-we-know-about-the-new-breton-variant-surveilled-by-authorities/lang/en[/url] or https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/246327-covid-what-we-know-about-the-new-breton-variant-surveilled-by-authorities/lang/en ;At this stage, we know a cluster has been identified this past February 22 in Lannion hospital, Côtes-d’Armor. After in-depth analyses, 79 cases have been identified as of March 13, including 8 cases carrying the “Breton variant”. These cases have been confirmed after sequencing performed by Institut Pasteur that revealed “a new variant […] carrying nine mutations in the area coding for S protein, as well as in other viral regions”, the DGS stated in a message sent to health professionals.


DJ-Is there similarity with the Finland variant evading some PCR testing ? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 has been updated-5 main mutations ;

S477G/N

E484K

N501Y

D614G

P681H

See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Differential_vaccine_effectiveness[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Differential_vaccine_effectiveness ;


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2021 at 2:02am

DJ-In the latest news UK variant showing up in pets-wich could be expected. As others commented the next step could be spread in/via animals-as we did see in NL and DK in minks infecting humans. It is 100% certain happening in other countries-but they may be not testing/reporting it...

From FluTrackers there today was news from 3 "new" variants-I put down in scenarios. 

-The P3 variant showing up in 2 cases in the UK

-The Breton/French variant evading upper respitory testing-since most likely the lower respitory system gets most of the virus.

-In Kentucky a care center showing several cases of an "unknown" variant (chances it could be a newer variant P3, French ?) but Kentucky also following people who visited Ebola-countries in Africa. The chances of a mix of Ebola and a Covid19 variant is "as good as 0" (as far as I get it) just like chances of an elephant and a tiger getting a "tigerphant"...

The big point is even if only the French and P3 Phillipines variant would be "new" they already showed up with less of 10% of detected cases being sequenced indicating the real number of variants likely much larger. 

Also FluTracker had the news of AZ/O-vaccine not limiting the SA variant, another story of 30% of a care center vaccinated population still getting symptoms after infection. And of course P1 out of control in Brazil, increase of cases in that region..

The general picture I am getting (and again I am NOT an expert !!!!) is;

-An increase of variants

-An increase of infections evading vaccines

-An increase of animals testing positive-most likely further to increase due to variants.

-A very limited number of testing, let alone sequencing, of cases. 

DJ-The risk of a sharp increase of cases in both human and non-human hosts is growing by the hour. Reopenings "to save the economy" and increase of international (air) travel further increase the risk of a sudden worsening (exponential growth !) of this pandemic !

It is very likely Africa, Latin America, South Asia may be dealing with lots more unknown variants-we miss even most of the cases there. A/Pre symptomatic spread is a major concern. Both children and animals often do not get vaccinated-so are feeding grounds for further spread. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 is trying to stay informed-but good info may become harder since the situation is bound to escalate. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2021 at 1:45pm

[url]https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/244147-covid-california-variant-found-in-france/lang/en[/url] or https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/244147-covid-california-variant-found-in-france/lang/en ;

Would you like some more Covid variant? After strains from South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Brazil, a brand-new variant, coming straight from California, has been found in Bas-Rhin, France. This is the news reported by our peers from Dernières Nouvelles d'Alsace saying that several cases have been reported between January 18 and February 9, after sequencing coronavirus 180 times in Strasbourg University Hospitals.

Among the 180 sequencings, six PCR+ cases of California variant have been confirmed, in a cluster set in Saverne, before the surge of UK and SA variants. Please note that in addition to this new strain, another unknown variant has been found in two other clinical cases. It is said to be the Scotland variant that surged a few weeks ago before it disappeared… and returned. “This variant is not particularly worrying” virology lecturer at Strasbourg University Hospitals Samira Fafi-Kremer tells Le Figaro. She explains: “its mutation – like for other variants – is superficial since it involves the Spike protein vaccines remain effective against”. But you should be worried still: “Among variants that have been found in our analyses, two are described as avoiding monoclonal antibodies and recovering patients’ plasma” Fafi-Kremer adds. As for the California variant, we do not know much about it since very few data are available as to its contagiousness and virulence. But according to an American study released in Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), this strain is yet resistant to vaccine. A new variant being studied, and another reason to keep on fighting against the epidemic.

and [url]https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-debate/20210317-just-like-last-year-paris-region-faces-lockdown-as-covid-cases-spike[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-debate/20210317-just-like-last-year-paris-region-faces-lockdown-as-covid-cases-spike 

DJ Also (a.o.) Greece, Poland facing serious health care problems-most likely variant(s) related. 

[url]https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7784/Artykul/2698874,UPDATE-Poland-to-bring-in-national-COVID19-restrictions[/url] or https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7784/Artykul/2698874,UPDATE-Poland-to-bring-in-national-COVID19-restrictions ;Officials earlier in the day reported 25,052 new infections – almost 8,000 more than the same day last week – and 453 more deaths.

Niedzielski said on Wednesday that the more contagious so-called British variant of the virus was spreading fast and now accounted for 52 percent of all COVID-19 cases in Poland.

and [url]https://greekreporter.com/2021/03/17/dark-day-in-greece-with-record-high-coronavirus-cases-intubations/[/url] or https://greekreporter.com/2021/03/17/dark-day-in-greece-with-record-high-coronavirus-cases-intubations/ ;While Greece has been under lockdown for months, the country recorded the highest number of intubations and coronavirus cases it has ever had in one day on Wednesday.

DJ-No mention of wich variants are spreading in Greece. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/910017-fiocruz-special-bulletin-the-biggest-sanitary-and-hospital-collapse-in-the-history-of-brazil[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/910017-fiocruz-special-bulletin-the-biggest-sanitary-and-hospital-collapse-in-the-history-of-brazilthis is the biggest sanitary and hospital collapse in the history of Brazil.

DJ-And it is only worsening for the moment...expected 3000+ deaths per day soon..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/910016-uk-phe-tracking-10th-variant-vui-21mar-02-nomenclature-change-update-on-p-1-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/910016-uk-phe-tracking-10th-variant-vui-21mar-02-nomenclature-change-update-on-p-1-variant ;

The UK - which leads the world in genomic testing and surveillance of COVID cases - unsurprisingly also leads the world in finding, and identifying, new COVID variants.


And for the second time in less than a week, the UK has announced the detection - and classification - of a new COVID VUI (Variant Under Investigation).

DJ-This is the P3-Phillippines variant spreading in SE Asia.

I was expecting that after the "second wave" autumn 2020 bringing an "explosion of cases" the "third wave" would see "an explosion of variants". The reduction of cases in between those "waves" is like water pulling back before the tsunami comes in... Of course I only can hope I am wrong !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2021 at 1:15am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2021 at 2:37pm

Thanks for posting that table. That's very interesting.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2021 at 9:55pm

Good find, KSC, thanks.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2021 at 6:11pm

I wonder why they can't fill in the rest.  I mean its a top priority so what is taking so long, get it done!!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2021 at 2:41am

[url]https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/health/161166/new-coronavirus-variant-discovered-by-university-in-belgium-uliege-researcher-kuleuven-kul-covid-19-south-africa-brazil-brussels/[/url] or https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/health/161166/new-coronavirus-variant-discovered-by-university-in-belgium-uliege-researcher-kuleuven-kul-covid-19-south-africa-brazil-brussels/ ;

A new mutation of the coronavirus (Covid-19) has been detected in Belgium by the university in Liège (ULiège) and currently accounts for around 4% of the infections in the country.

The strain – B.1.214 or “Spike Insertion” – was first discovered in January this year, and its spread is being closely monitored by researchers from ULiège and KU Leuven, according to reports from Le Soir.

“For the moment, the viruses of a hundred or so patients with this variant have been sequenced, and much more is needed to know its effects. But we can see that it is gradually increasing in Belgium, particularly in Brussels, Flemish Brabant, and Hainaut,” said Vincent Bours, professor of human genetics and head of the Sars-Cov-2 analysis and sequencing laboratory at ULiège.

He added that this variant attracted the attention of scientists because it had a “mutation that had almost never been observed before.”

Although its unique mutation is of interest to researchers, the strain is not currently classified as a variant of concern, as it is as prominent in the country as the South African and Brazilian variants.

However, researchers are “almost certain that it is not a Belgian strain,” and believe it could have originated from sub-Saharan Africa, and may have been brought to the country through travel.

One ULiège researcher, Keith Durkin, identified the variant as part of the national genomic surveillance program for the coronavirus which was launched at the end of December in Belgium.

DJ Most mutations and variations will not result in a stronger, more dangerous virus. However if it becomes a "variant" this means the mutated form is able to spread further then a few limited cases. See also [url]https://cov-lineages.org/[/url] or https://cov-lineages.org/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2021 at 8:45am

Thanks from me too.  That is a most useful list.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2021 at 10:12am

I was expecting that after the "second wave" autumn 2020 bringing an "explosion of cases" the "third wave" would see "an explosion of variants". The reduction of cases in between those "waves" is like water pulling back before the tsunami comes in... Of course I only can hope I am wrong !

I hope so, too, Josh.  But I'm not sure.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bradlux Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2021 at 1:16pm

A new and potentially troublesome variant of the coronavirus has been detected in India, as have variants first detected in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil, health officials said Wednesday.

Health Ministry officials and experts, however, cautioned against linking the variants with an ongoing surge in new infections in India.

https://worldabcnews.com/india-reports-double-mutant-coronavirus-variant-as-daily-deaths-reach-years-high/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2021 at 1:53pm

[url]https://www.livemint.com/science/health/india-detects-new-variant-of-covid-19-in-18-states-health-ministry-11616571067372.html[/url] or https://www.livemint.com/science/health/india-detects-new-variant-of-covid-19-in-18-states-health-ministry-11616571067372.html ;

India has detected a new "double mutant variant" of the coronavirus, the health ministry said on Wednesday. The new variant is an addition to the several "variants of concern" that have already been found in at least 18 states in the country, the ministry added.

"Since INSACOG initiated its work, 771 variants of concerns (VOCs) have been detected in a total of 10787 positive samples shared by States/UTs. These include 736 samples positive for viruses of the UK (B.1.1.7) lineage. 34 samples were found positive for viruses of the South African (B.1.351) lineage. 1 sample was found positive for viruses of the Brazilian (P.1) lineage. The samples with these VOCs have been identified in 18 States of the country." Union Health Ministry said.

More on the India variant; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910754-india-moh-statement-on-new-covid-variant-detected-in-15-20-of-samples-from-maharashtra[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910754-india-moh-statement-on-new-covid-variant-detected-in-15-20-of-samples-from-maharashtra ;

Overnight the Indian Press has been reporting on a statement by the Indian Ministry of Health on a new COVID variant rising to prominence in Maharashtra state - one which carries the E484Q and L452R amino acid mutations - both of which have been linked to immune escape and increased infectivity.

While Maharashtra state is currently seeing surge in COVID cases and deaths, it isn't clear - based on the limited data available - how much of that increase can be attributed to this variant. It has, however, been flagged as a VOC (Variant of Concern) by the Indian government and will be investigated further.

DJ-Any variant found in India should be headline news-given the very large population and international links. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maharashtra[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maharashtra ;Maharashtra is the second-most populous state in India as well as the second-most populous country subdivision in the world.The state capital is Mumbai, the most populous urban area in India.Maharashtra is the most industrialised state in India and the state's capital, Mumbai is India's financial and commercial hub.Maharashtra is one of the most developed and prosperous Indian states and continues to be the single largest contributor to the national economy with a share of 15% in the country's GDP According to the provisional results of the 2011 national census, Maharashtra is the richest state in India and second most populous state in India with a population of 112,374,333 (9.28% of India's population) 

Not good news !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2021 at 3:16pm

Scary, but not surprising.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2021 at 4:29pm

Sorry DJ posted same  Indian  story on new thread.....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2021 at 1:37am

....................................  A sliver of good news:


The Coronavirus Variants Don't Seem to Be Highly Variable So Far

SARS-CoV-2 may be settling into a limited set of mutations

By on

 Credit: Jordan Siemens Getty Images
                    

No doubt you’ve heard about the novel coronavirus variants that are evolving around the world. There now appear to be more than a dozen versions of SARS-CoV-2, which are of varying degrees of concern because some are linked to increased infectivity and lethality while others are not. It’s easy to be overwhelmed by this diversity and to fear that we’ll never achieve herd immunity. Yet evidence is growing that these variants share similar combinations of mutations. This may not be the multifront war that many are dreading, with an infinite number of new viral versions.

I am an evolutionary microbiologist who studies how bacteria and viruses adapt to new environments or hosts. Like many microbiologists, my colleagues and I have turned our attention to understanding how SARS-CoV-2 is evolving adaptations for reproducing and transmitting in humans. Our favorite laboratory method is experimental evolution, where we grow multiple populations of microbes started from the same strain under identical conditions for weeks or months. We study problems like how antibiotic resistance evolves and how infections become chronic. The power of this method is that using multiple populations allows us to “replay the tape of life” and study how repeatable and ultimately predictable evolution might be.

One pattern we see is called convergent evolution, where the same trait emerges in different independent lineages over time, usually as they adapt to similar environments. Some of the best examples of convergent evolution include the sandy color of diverse desert animals; lobed swimming fins for whales, walruses, and manatees (which are actually distantly related); and even the ability for humans to digest lactose into adulthood, which arose several times in geographically isolated populations.

In the case of SARS-CoV-2, the complete genome sequences of viruses from thousands of patients enable us to look for convergent patterns. While most mutations are one-offs that go extinct, some establish new lineages that become more frequent as the virus succeeds in replicating and infecting many people. If the same part of the virus repeatedly mutates in different samples around the world and becomes more frequent, this mutation very likely encodes an adaptation that helps the virus reproduce and transmit.

With the benefit of increased genome surveillance of the coronavirus, several recent studies have identified signatures of convergent evolution. Here in the U.S. our laboratory found at least seven genetically independent lineages that acquired a mutation at one particular spot on the virus’s infamous spike protein, the one it uses to latch onto human cells. Spike has a sequence of linked amino acids, and the mutation occurs at position number 677. In the original SARS-CoV-2 this is the amino acid glutamine, abbreviated as Q.

In six lineages, this Q mutated to another amino acid, histidine (H) and is called 677H. In the seventh lineage, Q mutated to another amino acid, proline (P). Each lineage also has a mutation called S:614G, which was the first notable change in the virus to be identified several months ago and spread so widely it is now found in 90 percent of all infections. We named these seven U.S. lineages after common birds—“robin,” for example, and “pelican” —to help us distinguish and track them, and also to avoid creating prejudice by naming them after the areas where they were first detected.

Lineages outside the U.S. have also acquired 677H, including in Egypt, Denmark, India and a large cluster in Macedonia. A new variant of concern called B.1.525 also has 677H, as do several lineages that descended from B.1.1.7, one of the first worrisome versions to be spotted. The coincident, global emergence of S:677 mutations and their fivefold gain in prevalence offers strong evidence that these changes must improve viral fitness in some way. We don’t know how yet, but it is noteworthy that S:677 borders a region of the spike protein that helps the virus enter and infect human cells.  

This is far from the only example of convergence in SARS-CoV-2. Mutations in at least eight different positions in the spike protein are simultaneously on the rise around the world, appearing in B.1.1.7 and in other major variants of concern known as B.1.351, P.1 and P.3. These variants share combinations of mutations at positions 18, 69–70, 417, 452, 501, 681 and a particularly concerning E484K mutation that evades neutralizing antibodies. For this reason, two of the leading scientific websites (http://covariants.org/ and http://outbreak.info) that track variants now report these shared, defining mutations to simplify and consolidate our attention. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and the media have been slow to follow the importance of these key mutations, but this is changing, because it is these changes that likely alter virus functions such as contagiousness or the ability to evade vaccines.

One way to envision this type of convergent evolution is as a game of Tetris, where a limited number of building blocks can be assembled in different ways, in different combinations, to achieve the same winning structures. For example, it is now known that the combination of mutations in B.1.1.7 make it especially contagious, and that the B.1.351 lineage can evade antibodies because of E484K.

Because many newly discovered variants appear to be resampling the mutations found in other established variants, we can speculate that the virus is beginning to run out of new, major adaptations. But this doesn’t mean that that the forces of evolution will stop as we begin to approach herd immunity and loosen restrictions. History tells us that viruses can evolve rapidly to evade barriers to transmission, especially when infections remain numerous. We must remember that the more infections there are, the more chance mutations will occur, and those that best help the virus to survive will proliferate. This is why stopping new infections is key. These viral adaptations are already rewriting our biology textbooks on convergent evolution; let’s strive to limit new material.

It’s also critical that we make significant investments in building an early-warning system to detect new SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as many other emerging pathogens, both known and yet to be discovered. Viral genome surveillance and sequencing is the key. The reason why many variants have been detected in the U.K. is because of visionary investments by researchers and public health officials in these technologies.

In the U.S., a significant influx of money to the CDC from the new federal stimulus package is already increasing the frequency with which researchers can sequence and analyze virus samples. This must be sustained by building the public health expertise and research infrastructure to decode genetic changes in the virus and anticipate the need for future vaccine modifications. It was basic science that provided hope in this pandemic through new vaccine technology; and given renewed support it will also be our guardian against future threats.


Source:   Scientific American

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2021 at 3:00am

DJ IF (again IF !!!) Covid 19 did break species barrier-and we will find out soon enough/to soon-the door for new variants/recombinations may be wide open...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_missense_mutations[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_missense_mutations has some of the main mutations often found in variants. "Section" 69/70 deleted=gone is not in the wikipedia link-still shows up often...

I would love to believe "convergent evolution" translating into limits to mutations...but laboratory is not real life and corona virusses in animals has been a problem since the 1930's. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Vaccine_evasion[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Vaccine_evasion is trying to follow how well vaccines protect against the SA variant. With [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics giving a hint on how widespread that SA variant is...still with limited testing and hardly any sequencing in Africa...

The P1-Brazil variant [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics is another major problematic variant. Even if there would be limits to the number of mutations (resulting in new variants) the P1 variant is already behind an explosion of cases all over Latin America and basicly "out of control". (With in the media Brazil yesterday over 100,000 new cases in just one day-government trying to redefine "covid deaths" to keep the statistics down...) .

The P3 variant in SE Asia, a mix of variants in India, France etc is already providing a "global third wave" eroding further healthcare facilities, destroying economies. 

-A bit of-centuries old-good "news" is that if the virus/variant can not reach you it can not infect you...The less host for any virus the less spread, the less new variants...I think vaccines are good news-but mixing that good news with "reopening the economy to soon" can destroy any gains...

In "scenario's" this morning I did write that it would be nice if we could keep new infections under 1 million per day. On january 8 (2021) [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries had a peak of 845,376 cases in one day. Due to new variants we will go over that number in april. (The january 8 number included also a lot of UK variants from a.o. the UK, also other variants were already increasing...) 

Januari 2021 did see several days with over 17,000 deaths. So far we are at almost 2,770,000 deaths. It would be nice if we would be under 5 million deaths on june 1 2021. 

I notice a "sense of optimism" for the coming months in some media; "vaccines will safe us"...The reality is variants-for now-in most places-move faster then vaccines. Given it takes a few weeks to get some protection from a (first) vaccine and some of the vaccines at best offer "limited protection" it may be wise to "duck and cover" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMnKNHNfznE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMnKNHNfznE

Using [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-deaths[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-deaths one could argue the peak of the first wave in deaths was in april 2020. The peak of wave two was in january 2021...and we are already-march 2021-in wave three ! We may see a peak-maybe-in april or may-just a few months after the peak of the second wave. Can we avoid another wave ? If wave three is driven by "new variants" a fourth wave may require even newer variants...

The bad news is we are already in a proces of creating "new" variants due to increasing number of infections worldwide. I think realism can help-even if that realism is forcing us to accept we are in a horror scenario...

Even if spread to non-human hosts would be limited, the number of new variants/recombinations would be limited, the basis for wave four is already being created. Vaccinations may be to slow to make enough of a difference for stopping this pandemic due to new variants-we NEED NPI and a long term strategy ! Some argue vaccines itself can cause a problem by stopping the spread of some variants and in that way give other variants-evading vaccines-more room. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2021 at 12:18am

DJ Dr.J.C. provides lots of info [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrOf1UQXsLI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrOf1UQXsLI still-in my opinion-manages to get the wrong conclusions....maybe to much a UK perspective but even there-with a R0 of 1-realism would come to the conclusion situation is worsening...

From under his video for India; February to early March, 80% of cases UK variant South Africa and Brazil present at lower levels India variant, mostly Maharashtra

2 mutations that confer immune escape and increased infectivity E484Q and L452R mutations Found in about 15-20% of samples Do not match any previously catalogued VOCs Kerala, N440K, associated with immune escape

DJ looking at [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_missense_mutations[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_missense_mutations ;

-the most common mutation for 484 is E to K NOT to Q

-mutations at 452 and 440 are "new" for major variants

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#S477G/N[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#S477G/N is very likely to show up in India variants as well...

[url]https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1707177[/url] or https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1707177 ;

The analysis of samples from Maharashtra has revealed that compared to December 2020, there has been an increase in the fraction of samples with the E484Q and L452R mutations.  Such mutations confer immune escape and increased infectivity. These mutations have been found in about 15-20% of samples and do not match any previously catalogued VOCs. These have been categorized as VOCs but require the same epidemiological and public health response of “increased testing, comprehensive tracking of close contacts, prompt isolation of positive cases & contacts as well as treatment as per National Treatment Protocol” by the States/UTs.

From Kerala 2032 samples (from all 14 districts) have been sequenced. The N440K variant that is associated with immune escape has been found in 123 samples from 11 districts. This   variant was earlier found in 33% of samples from Andhra Pradesh, and in 53 of 104 samples from Telangana. This variant has also been reported from 16 other countries including UK, Denmark, Singapore, Japan and Australia. As of now these can be at best said to be variant under investigation.

Though VOCs and a new double mutant variant have been found in India, these have not been detected in numbers sufficient to either establish or direct relationship or explain the rapid increase in cases in some States. Genomic sequencing and epidemiological studies are continuing to further analyze the situation.

With India having a population of 1,4 billion-only 50 million being vaccinated, elections and religious mass gatherings we may not only see increased spread of known variants but most likely will see new variants in/from India.

-On the P3-Phillipines variant; 

On 13 March, the Department of Health confirmed the mutations constitutes a variant which was designated as lineage P.3.[105] On the same day, it also confirmed the first Lineage P.1 COVID-19 case in the country. Although the P.1 and P.3 variants stem from the same lineage B.1.1.28, the department said that P.3 variant's impact on vaccine efficacy and transmissibility is yet to be ascertained. The Philippines had 98 cases of P.3 variant on 13 March.[106] On 12 March it was announced that P.3 had also been detected in Japan.[107][108] On 17 March, the United Kingdom confirmed its first two cases,[109] where PHE termed it VUI-21MAR-02.[6]

DJ Since it is from a "sea-nation" it mostly will be spread via shipping and most likely will be over most of SE Asia by now. Since poor people hardly even get tested and a lot of the spread will be a/pre-symptomatic increase of cases-including in India-most likely will go up further. 

-India IS overcrowding ! It is impossible to have much social distancing...Many other countries/regions have the same conditions. Mega-cities, large getto's, no testing...From Nigeria, South Africa, Brazil to Pakistan, India, Indonesia why the virus would NOT spread ?  Claiming to be "scientific" but still asking "proof gravity works" I hardly consider scientific !

The hosts are there, the variants are there, transport is there SO it will spread !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2021 at 1:51am

[url]https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/brazilian-variant-p1-almost-as-prevalent-in-ireland-as-uk-1.4518299[/url] or https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/brazilian-variant-p1-almost-as-prevalent-in-ireland-as-uk-1.4518299 DJ-The headlines look alarming but the basic point is the UK would have detected 10 cases of the P1 variant, Ireland did find 9 of those...Ireland also has 13 P2 variants detected...The idea is that the UK variant may slow down increase of other variants-but why Ireland has that many detected P1 and P2 variants being unclear may be the moin point of the article...

DJ-with the UK variant spreading in Michegan/US AND increased infections in minkfarms there is a serious risk of the UK variant further mutating. In Brazil stray cats and dogs were found to be infected last year-with the P1 and P2 (a.o) spreading also here increased risk of variant-infections in animals causing new variants...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9irEbq43Qc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9irEbq43Qc Dr. John Campbell had a good-basic-story on how new variants get started. He mentions; 1.Mutations that increase transmissibility,  2.Mutations that can avoid antibodies , 3.Mutations that can avoid vaccination defences

DJ Increased transmission means the virus can reproduce itself better in hosts-good for the virus, bad for the host ! After infection the host will get an immune reaction-so if the virus want to have a second chance it has to find a way around that immunity. Vaccination also is meant to increase immunity but with the virus being around in such large numbers a mistake in reproduction=mutation can result in a variant that can avoid vaccination defences...Dr.J.C. expects more of these variants...

Some points-When comparing it to SARS-1 or MERS-corona virus outbreaks the big difference is in the very large number of SARS-2 cases. The more infections=the more mistakes in reproduction=more mutations. While most mutations make the virus weaker a small number of matations enable the virus to better reproduce...The number of SARS-1 and MERS cases was a few thousend. They never got to the variants...A major factor is in the large number of infections !

The general idea is that mutations occur in reproduction in a host. [url]https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2133.1994.tb03404.x#[/url] or https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2133.1994.tb03404.x# but outside the host UV and most likely several other forms of radiation also can effect viral mutations. Again-most of those mutations will make the virus less able to survive-but given the number of virus in the air some of the out-of-a-host mutations could become variants...

Recombination and non-human hosts-with SARS-2 most likely having a bat-origin- further increase risks of new variants.

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 for the overview.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1 ;

Researchers at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation published a preprint genomic epidemiology study of 250 collected genomes from different places in Amazonas and found that P.1 infections can produce nearly 10 times more viral load than in other COVID-19-infected persons involving B.1.1.28 and B.1.195 lineages. The variant also showed 2.2 times higher transmissibility with the same ability to infect both adults (18–59 years old) and older persons (60 years old and higher), suggesting P.1 lineages are more successful at infecting younger humans with no gender differential.[21]

The Centre for Arbovirus Discovery, Diagnosis, Genomics and Epidemiology (CADDE) produced another preprint manuscript of samples collected in Manaus between November 2020 and January 2021. The study indicated P.1 lineage to be 1.4–2.2 times more transmissible and was shown to be capable of evading 25–61% of inherited immunity from previous coronavirus diseases, leading to the possibility of reinfection. These increased statistics also had the same reflection in fatality, in that P.1 infections can be 10–80% more lethal.[22][23][24] As part of ongoing research, the variant's capacity to neutralize antibodies has been evaluated by scientists in a published preprint work demonstrating that 8 CoronaVac-immunized persons had a poor blood plasma response against lineage P.1. Since the study only had a small number of participants, it was not possible to establish any statistical conclusion as a larger number of vaccinated people would need to be studied.[25] Scientists at MIT, Harvard and Cambridge, and physicians of Boston Hospitals, corroborated that Pfizer and Moderna fully vaccinated people have significantly decreased neutralization with P.1—in a preprint work.[26]

DJ-With the P1 variant now spreading all over Latin America (and further) including in Chile-with a high number of vaccinations-the next step in evolution of the P1 variant will be evading vaccination. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics DJ-with very limited testing and sequencing the real number of P1 cases and spread of this variant will be much larger. Although the P.1 and P.3 variants stem from the same lineage B.1.1.28, the department said that P.3 variant's impact on vaccine efficacy and transmissibility is yet to be ascertained.

DJ-The P3 variant is spreading in SE Asia with hardly any vaccinations. But when confronted with vaccine-immunization very likely-like the P1 variant-able to find a way to evade it. Both P1 and P3 very likely also easier in finding a non-human host...wich brings us to [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Infection_in_animals[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Infection_in_animals . In and around the house cats may be most vulnarable for getting and spreading variants. Since in SE Asia, Latin America there are a lot of small farmers living close to all kinds of animals it may be hard to predict what other animal may start spreading variants. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fur_farming[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fur_farming is not very common in these countries. 

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant is also in over 69 countries-widespread. Vaccines are less effective against this variant as well. In further development this SA variant also may develop further vaccine evasion. 

Again-I am NOT an expert ! This is not "science" but "just my ideaś/thoughts"...science comes after the facts...We can stop the spread, we should stop the spread of these variants but we do not stop it...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2021 at 2:56am

ksc discovered the Tanzania-variant ! (Or at least some publicity on it...) 

[url]https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1375116665227247620.html[/url] or https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1375116665227247620.html ; This VOI has 31 amino acids mutations. In Spike has 11 mutations and three deletions in the N-terminal domain

It has some key mutations, including the E484K, R346K and P681H. The R346K is the associated with resistance to class 3 RBD NAbs recently described by @jbloom_lab
There are also 5 substitutions and 3 deletions in the NTD antigenic supersite (Y144Δ, R246M, SYL247-249Δ and W258L) 
It the most diverse A lineage sequencers ever described. It also worry us as it was found in three travelers from Tanzania in Angola. There is almost no data from COVID-19 in Tanzania.

DJ-As far as I understand the more further away from the "first" variant the more likely it can get over natural/vaccine immunity. Since we hardly have any idea of what Covid19 is doing in Africa this Tanzania variant may simply be one of many...

[url]https://www.krisp.org.za/publications.php?pubid=330[/url] or https://www.krisp.org.za/publications.php?pubid=330 ;

Here, we report the first genomic surveillance results from Angola, which has had 21 500 reported cases and around 500 deaths from COVID-19 up to March 2021 (Supplemental Fig S1). On 15 January 2021, in response to the international spread of VOCs, the government instituted compulsory rapid antigen testing of all passengers arriving at the main international airport, in addition to the existing requirement to present a negative PCR test taken within 72 hours of travel. All individuals with a positive antigen test are isolated in a government facility for a minimum of 14 days and require two negative RT-PCR tests at least 48 hours apart for de-isolation, whilst all travelers with a negative test on arrival proceed to mandatory self-quarantine for 10 days followed by a repeat test. In March 2021, we received 118 nasopharyngeal swab samples collected between June 2020 and February 2021, a number of which were from incoming air travelers (Supplemental Fig S1). From these, we produced 73 high quality genomes (>80% coverage), 14 of which were known VOCs/VOIs (seven 501Y.V2/B.1.351, six B.1.1.7, one B.1.525), 44 of which were C.16 (a common lineage circulating in Portugal), and twelve of which were other lineages (Supplemental Fig S2). In addition, we detected a new VOI in three incoming travelers from Tanzania who were tested together at the airport in mid-February. The three genomes from these passengers were almost identical and presented highly divergent sequences within the A lineage (Figure 1A & 1B). The GISAID database contains nine other sequences reported to be sampled from cases involving travel from Tanzania, two of which are basal to the three sampled in Angola

This new VOI, temporarily designated A.VOI.V2, has 31 amino acid substitutions (11 in spike) and three deletions (all in spike) (Figure 1C & 1D). The spike mutations include three substitutions in the receptor-binding domain (R346K, T478R and E484K); five substitutions and three deletions in the N-terminal domain, some of which are within the antigenic supersite (Y144?, R246M, SYL247-249? and W258L)4; and two substitutions adjacent to the S1/S2 cleavage site (H655Y and P681H). Several of these mutations are present in other VOCs/VOIs and are evolving under positive selection.

DJ-note 73 "good"samples only had 14 known variants, 44 C.16 Portugal sub-type and 12 other non VOI/VOC(12+44+14=70 and 3 Tanzania new variants) All of the info at [url]https://www.krisp.org.za/manuscripts/MEDRXIV-2021-254323v1-deOliveiraSupplementary.pdf[/url] or https://www.krisp.org.za/manuscripts/MEDRXIV-2021-254323v1-deOliveiraSupplementary.pdf including the 31 mutations !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2021 at 3:38am

Not getting any better....is it.....

Jacksdad's "slow burn"........

My dad used to say

"a damp mist ,will get you just as wet as a downpour"......

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2021 at 6:41am

[url]https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2BK0HQ[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2BK0HQ ;

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Maharashtra reported 40,414 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, the highest number reported by any Indian state since March 2020, government data showed. Maharashtra, one of India’s largest states and home to the densely populated financial capital Mumbai, is the worst-hit state in a new surge of cases in India. 

The country recorded 62,714 coronavirus infections in the space of 24 hours - the highest single-day tally since mid-October - according to the Health Ministry.A night curfew and new curbs were imposed in Maharashtra on Sunday and local authorities said harsher measures could be implemented to contain the virus in the coming days.

DJ A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/ show cases now in India at same level as the highest so far-in september 2020-just under 100,000 new cases per day. Maharashtra has its own variant-seems to be out of control.

[url]https://www.india.com/maharashtra/maharashtra-new-covid-19-variant-found-in-vidarbha-nagpur-bmc-says-highly-lethal-4547950/[/url] or https://www.india.com/maharashtra/maharashtra-new-covid-19-variant-found-in-vidarbha-nagpur-bmc-says-highly-lethal-4547950/

Mumbai: New Coronavirus variant has been detected in two districts of Maharashtra, Vidarbha & Nagpur. BMC chief  Iqbal Singh Chahal told news channel NDTV that the new mutant strain of COVID-19 that has surfaced in Vidarbha and Nagpur is “highly infectious and lethal”.  “We never lowered our guard and did our best. But the new mutant is so infectious that if one member of the family gets it, the entire family gets it in a few hours. This was not heard of earlier. This is only with the new mutant. So we are helpless there,” said Chahal. Also Read - Maharashtra COVID Surge: State Cabinet to Meet at 3 PM Today to Review Rising Cases, Consider Additional Curbs

On being asked what evidence was there of the new strain, the BMC chief said it was based on what the task force set up by the Maharashtra government had said. “The task force has a dozen doctors who are best in their fields. They have been advising us. They have said this is a mutation of the virus that is highly infectious but less lethal,” he said.

DJ-[url]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56517495[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56517495

The government said that an analysis of the samples collected from the western state of Maharashtra showed "an increase in the fraction of samples with the E484Q and L452R mutations" compared with December last year.

"Such [double] mutations confer immune escape and increased infectivity," the health ministry said in a statement.

Dr Jeremy Kamil, a virologist at Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center Shreveport, says the E484Q is similar to E484K - a mutation seen in the B.1.351 (South Africa) and P.1 (Brazil) variants, which have emerged independently several times.

If enough mutations happen in a viral family tree or a lineage, the virus can begin to function differently and the lineage can become a so-called 'variant of concern'.


As far as the L452R mutation - also found in the "double mutation" in India - it first got attention as part of B.1.427/B.1.429 lineage in the US, which is sometimes called the "California variant", Dr Kamil told me.

(As put on this New Variants earlier) The UK variant is also widespread in India-but we know that the SA and P1 variant (and P3 variant also E484K) are "hard to control". So India may be facing a "Brazil-scenario"????

DJ-Many other countries are dealing with new variants and means to get a grip being limited. Makes me (DJ) wonder how widespread the "Brazil scenario" may become...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/philippines/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/philippines/ 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 06 2021 at 1:38am

DJ 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 and

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

The grim reality is that the present known (or expected) varaiants in itself are deadly/dangerous enough to destroy healthcare in many places. It is very likely variants from the UK, Brazil, India, Phillippines, Iran will kill tens of millions of people. 

Those people did not get vaccinated-often did not even had a chance to get tested. Also NPI does not work if your daily job means your daily food. 

Countries we keep poor face a population reduction that could and should have been prevented. They will demand answers from those that did not stop this genocide via pandemic. 

-On the Iran variant [url]https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33588026/[/url] or https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33588026/ ; The Middle East has a death toll of ~80,000 and over 35000 of these are in Iran, which has over 1.2 million confirmed cases. We expect that Iranian cases caused outbreaks in the neighbouring countries and that variant mapping and phylogenetic analysis can be used to prove this. We also aim to analyse the variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS -CoV-2) to characterise the common genome variants and provide useful data in the global effort to prevent further spread of COVID-19.

-

The most common, high impact variants were 10818delTinsG, 2772delCinsC, 14159delCinsC and 2789delAinsA. These high impact variant ultimately results in 36 number of mutations on spike glycoprotein. Variant alignment and phylogenetic tree generation indicates that samples from Iran likely introduced COVID-19 to the rest of the Middle East.

 [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/911886-iran-media-report-health-ministry-announces-the-loss-of-control-of-covid-19-after-the-spread-of-the-new-strain-april-5-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/911886-iran-media-report-health-ministry-announces-the-loss-of-control-of-covid-19-after-the-spread-of-the-new-strain-april-5-2021The Iranian Minister of Health, Saeed Namaki, announced that the Iranian health system has lost the initiative in controlling the Coronavirus "Covid-19", especially after the spread of the new strain of the global epidemic in some provinces, and the leap in the numbers of deaths and injuries.

According to IRNA, the Iranian official said: "Today we lost the initiative in controlling the Corona pandemic in the country, our conditions have become very difficult and it is not known when we will be able to control this stubborn and unruly virus again."

He added, "We are facing the worst waves of Corona ... before the celebrations of the beginning of the new year, no one listened to us in order to control movement and travel between cities, and today we face a very serious problem."

Iran had announced that a fourth wave of the Coronavirus pandemic had begun to spread in the western and central regions of the country as a result of large-scale travel and celebrations during the Iranian New Year holiday.

"A fourth wave of Coronavirus has already started in many parts of the west and center of the country and is advancing in the east direction," Health Ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Larry told state television.

DJ-Not only Iran, also a.o. Turkey is reporting a high number of new cases. From the same link(s); Regarding the management of coronary heart disease, he said: "Universities of medical sciences and health staff were present on the scene and applied a management that will be recorded in the history of the country; We have entered a new arena and I see this wave as much more terrible than what some friends see.

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He added that the mutated corona is spinning in all cities: the number of hospitalizations and outpatients is on the rise, too, and the continuation of this trend will determine the catastrophic situation.

and According to researchers at University College London, the Pangolin variant of the virus is about 100x as infectious as the currently circulating human ones, so a much more dangerous version.is possible. ( https://www.newscientist.com/article...-can-they-get/ ).
Hopefully Iran is not seeing early signs of such an emergence.

DJ Does the Iran-variant cause severe hearth problems ? A 100x more infectious variant in humans would be a nightmare.

[url]https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24933283-600-as-coronavirus-variants-evolve-how-much-more-dangerous-can-they-get/[/url] or https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24933283-600-as-coronavirus-variants-evolve-how-much-more-dangerous-can-they-get/ ; When considering future variants, there are three main properties to worry about: transmissibility, evasion of immunity to past infection or vaccines, and lethality. Of these, transmissibility is the most important. The new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is far less lethal than the Ebola …

DJ-further info behind a paywall-while the info is taxfunded and in the public interest...insanity rules !

[url]https://eu.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2021/03/18/covid-new-variants-deadly/4251191001/[/url] or https://eu.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2021/03/18/covid-new-variants-deadly/4251191001/

New variants of the novel coronavirus have been emerging all over the world. Some are more transmissible and potentially deadlier. And versions of the virus that are more contagious can actually end up causing more deaths than those with higher mortality rates.

A more transmissible virus

With no control measures in place, an infected person will spread COVID-19 to two or three other people on average. The average number of people infected by one individual is represented by R0, or the basic reproduction number. As long as R0 is larger than 1, the number of infected people will likely increase exponentially and even a small number of infections can result in high case counts down the line. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the current best estimate of the reproduction number for novel coronavirus is 2.5. If a new variant causes this number to grow by 50%, that means one person would infect four people on average.

DJ-It has been discussed for some months-does an R0 of 2 mean more deaths then an R0 of 1 ? Is the UK variant "deadlier"-not maybe due to the variant itself-was the first idea-later reviewed-but due to higher numbers with limited care facilities-yes a higher R0=more deadly. 

The USA today online article has R0=2,5=97,7k cases in 30 days, but R0=5 means 3.13 million cases in 30 days...

An Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) of 0,65 means 635 deaths with an R0 of 2,5 but increases if the R0 goes to 5 to 20,3k deaths...If the IFR goes to 1,3 a R0 of 2,5 =1,27k deaths in 30 days-but a R0 of 5 would see 40,6k deaths (k=1000) ...

DJ-The biggest worry should not be vaccine evation for now-since proberbly less then 5% of the global population has limited vaccine protection. Of the 7,8 billion people 5%= 370 million that number may be even optimistic given it takes two weeks after vaccination to get (some-up to 90% for the old variant)  protection (against severe disease/death). 

It is already clear newer variant are able to evade-often-natural immunity. That seems to be the problem with P1 in Brazil/Latin America. 

Stopping the spread of the virus should be priority number 1 ! But we keep repeating to short NPI "saving economies reopenings" to see new variants making even stricter NPI needed...a downward spiral that may become making the present Covid-variants pandemic even more deadly...Vaccination events themselves can become superspreader events...go to slow to get this pandemic under control. Vaccinations may even start newer variants by stopping-protecting against- the milder ones...



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 2:27am

A new super variant of the Covid-19 virus in Brazil is a combination of 18 different mutations, including the so-called Brazil, British and South African strains.

According to local media reports, scientist in the South African country have confirmed that the new strain, which was first discovered in the city of Belo Horizonte, contains multiple mutations that were already known.

https://www.cityam.com/new-super-covid-variant-combines-18-mutations/?utm_content=bufferda74f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 hours 14 minutes ago at 4:09am

Oh, Crap!!!

Nice catch, Ksc!

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 hours 5 minutes ago at 5:18am

[url]https://www.cityam.com/new-super-covid-variant-combines-18-mutations/[/url] or https://www.cityam.com/new-super-covid-variant-combines-18-mutations/ DJ-I had some problems with the article calling Brazil a South African country...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 may provide more info if indeed there is a new "super covid variant"...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil ...

[url]https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2021/04/10/brazil-finds-new-covid-19-variant-combining-18-mutations/[/url] or https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2021/04/10/brazil-finds-new-covid-19-variant-combining-18-mutations/ ;www.aa.com: Scientists in Brazil have discovered a new variant of coronavirus that combines 18 mutations, rubbing salt in the wound of the South American epicenter.
The new strain from Belo Horizonte city “has characteristics in common with the variants that were already circulating in Brazil, but it also has new characteristics,” Virologist, Renato Santana, from the Federal University of Minas Gerais, told local daily G1 on Wednesday.
“It is as if these variants were evolving,” Santana said, adding the new variant includes the same genes modified by Brazil’s Manaus, known as P1, British and South African variant.
Noting that it is too early to assess whether the new strain is more transmissible or deadly, he said that it has mutations in common with variants that are already associated with a higher risk of death.
The new super variant made headlines at a critical time, when Brazil registered record-high single-day COVID-19 deaths with more than 4,000.
The grim milestone points to an uncontrolled advance of the virus in Brazil, which accounts for one-quarter of the world’s daily virus-related deaths, although it only accounts for 2.7% of the global population.

DJ Maybe on [url]https://g1.globo.com/[/url] or https://g1.globo.com/ ....[url]https://globoplay.globo.com/v/9420739/[/url] or https://globoplay.globo.com/v/9420739/ news item on Brazilian TV...not in English...

[url]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-variant-idUSKBN2BU2KA[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-variant-idUSKBN2BU2KA ;

Scientists warned on Wednesday that yet another new variant could be emerging in Brazil’s inland city of Belo Horizonte.

The Federal University of Minas Gerais said in a statement that two samples taken in the city included a previously unseen set of 18 mutations, including some in the same genes modified by the South African variant and Brazil’s already prevalent variant, known as P.1.

The detection of additional variants adds to concerns that a brutal COVID-19 wave battering Brazil may keep breaking grim records for weeks to come. 

DJ April 7...proberbly more news on its way...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 hours 59 minutes ago at 1:24pm

Wow. That's really something.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 9 hours 53 minutes ago at 5:30pm

The Associated Press: Tweaked COVID vaccines in testing aim to fend off variants.

https://apnews.com/ed3e734b17d6652f13d5f63238d86ba7

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