| PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL |
| 123456 |
| Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Now At Level 6 |
Post Reply 
|
Page <12345 14> |
| Author | |||||||||||||
Guests 
Guest Group 
|
 Post Options
 Thanks(0)
 Quote Reply
 Posted: May 15 2009 at 8:54pm |
||||||||||||
|
new guidelines...(as in Guide) states/localities can self determine...unless state Govt./WHO
says otherwise.
Schools will now close for a total of 14 days for illness.
Hotline in New York State
.........................................
1-800-1987
NY City call.... 311
...................................
cases remain mild to moderate in NY..... 7 cases on Long Island
Latest Briefing:
Statement from Governor Paterson regarding the closure of additional New York City schools. More >>
.......................................
looks like nearly 7000 kids will be out of school in the city..(approx .4,500 and another 2500.)
Please correct this number if you have differing data.
......................
|
|||||||||||||
 |
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 15 2009 at 10:41pm |
||||||||||||
|
Please print this or take notes...or the library will print it for you.
Taking care of a sick family member at home
............................................................................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 16 2009 at 10:31am |
||||||||||||
|
.
United Kingdom
...........................
As of 11 May 2009[update] UK epidemiologists at Imperial College London consider that
H1N1 swine flu is spreading fast enough to justify the preparations for a pandemic. It is
showing "sustained human-to-human transmission", thereby justifying the WHO's
pandemic phase 5 rating.
It is estimated that on average each person who contracts flu passes it on to between 1.4
and 1.6 other people, no worse than the three influenza pandemics of the twentieth
century. Early analysis suggests that the spread is likely to be similar to the earlier
pandemics. Up to the date of the study, clinical severity is similar to 1957 and less than
1918. But the clinical severity of the outbreak and how the virus will evolve cannot yet be
predicted. [66]
wikipedia
...........................................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 16 2009 at 4:59pm |
||||||||||||
|
I'm trying to consider severity. We now have several pandemics going on in the world...
I wonder if there were 5 Pandemics about the world during the 1918 Pandemic Flu? and what impact these 5 Pandemics will have on the fatality rate this next flu season in North America?
MALARIA Pandemic
HIV/Aids Pandemic
TB Pandemic
Hepatitis C Pandemic
Dengue/dengue haemorrhagic fever Pandemic
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 16 2009 at 5:50pm |
||||||||||||
|
. Countries so do not need this swine flu.... Countries in South America, Central America are currently suffering from,
Dengue/Dengue H. Fever. In Bolivia
The fatality rate is 12.7 %
add the swine flu and it looks like the people are dying from?
co-infections.
 |
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 16 2009 at 10:21pm |
||||||||||||
|
China is serious...
Suspected carriers are to be held under quarantine with one person in an isolation ward while groups of people with a confirmed infection will be treated in one ward at designated hospitals.
Confirmed carriers will be treated with oseltamivir, an inhibitor that proved effective in initial medical tests in containing the virus, it says.
.......................................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 17 2009 at 4:33pm |
||||||||||||
|
Here is a look at the UK and Japan.
United Kingdom
............................ as of May 17th..... 101 confirmed cases. 155 cases suspected.
155 cases are currently under laboratory investigation in the UK.These cases change on a daily basis on account of some of those under assessment being discounted and new ones being introduced. This figure is correct at the time stated.
Japan ............................... On May 17, a total of 96 people are confirmed in Japan[107].
over 100 suspected cases
wikipedia .......................................................................................................................
If you want to compare the USA to the EU.... then each of our states should be doing as the UK below (and countries of the EU the same)
The Department of Health announced on 29 April 2009 that they intended to send an
information leaflet on swine flu to every household in the UK.[59] On 5 May they started to
deliver leaflets to all households in the UK.[60] On 29 April, Alan Johnson announced that
television and radio advice would also be broadcast starting on 30 April.[61] On 30 April
2009, a swine flu information line was launched with advice on setting up "flu friends" (this
is not the National Flu Line service mentioned below).[61]
............................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 17 2009 at 9:42pm |
||||||||||||
|
.
....outbreaks in multiple locations overseas
Interior Emergency Coordination Council
...................................................................... National Principal Federal Official (PFO)
Primary Joint Field Office (JFO) staff.
The country is divided into five Regional Areas of Responsibility. When Federal Govt. Response Stage 3 (FGRS 3) widespread human outbreaks in
multiple locations overseas, the Regional PFOs and Regional JFOs are activated.
Within this scheme, there is a National Principal Federal Official (NPFO), along with five
Regional PFOs (one in each Regional Area of Responsibility), and ten Deputy Regional PFOs
(two per Regional Area).
.............................................
The FGRS provide a framework for Federal Government actions, and are follows:
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 18 2009 at 10:26am |
||||||||||||
|
.
From- WHO chief Dr. Margaret Chan, ...no one can say how long this period will last.
............................................................................................... The US has said it will be at WHO phase 5 until this occurs-
...widespread human outbreaks in multiple locations overseas,
the Regional PFOs and Regional JFOs are activated.
Activated at that point to Who phase 6 and Fed Govt. stage 3. There are 3 Fed Govt. stages during WHO phase 6...
please see them in post above... stage 3, stage 4, stage 5.
.............................................................................................................
...widespread human outbreaks in multiple locations overseas, Would have to happen in North and South East Asia.... the area where our
fall flu comes from....(ie second wave) then if it hits us hard...stage 4.
No real Govt. intervention until stage 5. ......................................................................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 18 2009 at 6:12pm |
||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 18 2009 at 7:01pm |
||||||||||||
|
.
This interviw section (given below) was left out of the audio tape of May 18, 2009.... Anne Schuchat: Sure. We are looking at shedding, and I'm not aware of results yet about gastro intestinal shedding. It's certainly a question we have, since that definitely can
happen with viruses.
Dave Daigle: Richard, what were your other questions?
Richard Knox: And if so, is it being used to determine whether there have been wider
spread than has been reported or maybe even asymptomic spread.
..............................................................................
H1N1 S-OIV
(swine flu)
No Fever, No Respiratory/cough
People are presenting with - Gastro Intestinal Shedding .............................................. Operator: The next is from Richard Knox, "National Public Radio." Your line is open.
Richard Knox: Thanks very much. I appreciate the opportunity. One thing, just to finish a
thought that Daniel DeNoon brought up with possible sequel shedding, I don't think I got
quite clear. Is there any evidence yet as to whether it is shed by that route or not yet?
And I have a couple of others.
Anne Schuchat: Sure. We are looking at shedding, and I'm not aware of results yet about
gastro intestinal shedding. It's certainly a question we have, since that definitely can
happen with viruses.
Dave Daigle: Richard, what were your other questions?
Richard Knox: And if so, is it being used to determine whether there have been wider
spread than has been reported or maybe even asymptomic spread. And then finally, if I
may, some have wondered whether we might see a summer flu phenomenon. I think you
just suggested that you think it is likely to follow the usual pattern in which temperature
and humidity will suppress that. But like Frank MONTO suggested, maybe we will. Can you
discuss a little bit about the possibilities of that?
Anne Schuchat: We are very interested in the question of asymptomatic spread, and
that's part of the evaluations that we're doing. This can happen with seasonal influenza
strains, and we are looking at that possibility, as well. We're working towards
development of a sear logic as sate that can tell us whether a lot of people have been
exposed without getting clinical systems. So that's another thing we'll be looking for. We
don't have results on that yet at this time. We wonder whether this strain will continue
during the summer, and give us more of a summer influenza pattern. This is certainly a
possibility. It's not something that I can predict. Most years, the seasonal influenza strains
have very reduced amounts here in the northern hemisphere. Unfortunately, we don't
know whether we'll get a break this summer with this virus. We'll be looking there and also
in the southern hemisphere where we expect there may be an important increase of this
virus.
Dave Daigle: Thank you, Richard. Next question, please, operator.
.................................................................................
why was it left out...total dead stop.... here-
........................................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
noflu4u
V.I.P. Member 
Joined: May 03 2009 Status: Offline Points: 431 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 18 2009 at 7:12pm |
||||||||||||
|
.
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 18 2009 at 7:49pm |
||||||||||||
|
Do you remember a while back? when they talked about it being on surfaces...that is a polite way of saying ...spread by fecal oral route and is one reason (in my mind) why it is passing so furiously through schools... it is both F/O route and also sneezing.
saying people have no symptoms...and spread it... well intestinal shedding is not as overt as fever and sneezing... but it's another way to get it around. And that is why they were scrubbing the whole darn school.
.......................
U.S. health officials troubled by new flu pattern
..........................................................................
Mon May 18, 2009 4:12pm EDT By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The new influenza strain circulating around most of the United
States is putting a worrying number of young adults and children into the hospital and
hitting more schools than usual, U.S. health officials said on Monday.
The H1N1 swine flu virus killed a vice principal at a New York City school over the weekend
and has spread to 48 states. While it appears to be mild, it is affecting a disproportionate
number of children, teenagers and young adults.
This includes people needing hospitalization -- now up to 200, said Dr. Anne Schuchat of
the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"That's very unusual, to have so many people under 20 to require hospitalization, and
some of them in (intensive care units)," Schuchat told reporters in a telephone briefing.
"We are now experiencing levels of influenza-like illness that are higher than usual for this
time of year," Schuchat added. "We are also seeing outbreaks in schools, which is
extremely unusual for this time of year."
article cont here-
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE54H3QO20090518?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews&rpc=22&sp=true ................................. |
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 18 2009 at 10:03pm |
||||||||||||
|
Our Government will not panic the citizens with a Phase 6. There is a danger of flu burnout
if they declare a Pandemic phase 6 too early. There is pressure, they will not cave.
The Federal Govt. has planned it all out.
Our Federal Government has
3 Stages contained within Phase 6
.......................................................... Swine Flu's Spread in Japan May Prompt WHO to Declare Pandemic
By Simeon Bennett May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Dozens of swine flu cases in Japan may prompt the World Health
Organization to declare a pandemic, a former WHO adviser said, spurring demand for
vaccines to fight the contagion.
Article cont. here-
.............................................
and here is a real live article that agrees...
WHO says no Phase 6 for swine flu, for now
By Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY
Pressure from China, Britain, Japan and other countries appears to have persuaded the World Health Organization to hold off on raising its pandemic alert to the highest level, despite the spread of H1N1 flu in Japan.
Health experts at WHO's annual meeting in Geneva argued Monday that shifting to Phase 6, the level that would officially define this swine flu as a global epidemic, could cause panic and confusion when the virus appears to be mild in most cases. article cont. here-
.....................................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
rickster58
Moderator
Joined: March 09 2009 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 4875 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 19 2009 at 4:34am |
||||||||||||
|
Going to Level 6 would for most countries, mean closing their borders and restricting travel. As we have just seen in Mexico this caused a massive slump in Tourism.
I think WHO will delay for as long as possible declaring a level 6 pandemic for the simple reason, international pressure not to declare is high and WHO critics are many.
As many countries rely on tourism to keep their economy afloat I see intense lobbying from affected countries, even lies and deception regarding the seriousness of their outbreaks.
This will most probably be to the detriment of people worldwide who are currently lulled into a false sense of security and have not prepared.
I see it already in the Australian media. The dumbing down of the issue, the trivializing of the seriousness of this current outbreak, failure to report significant world events related to H1N1.
For example.....the CDC statement saying they believe up to 100,000 Americans may have the virus received very little coverage here.
For Goodness sakes, I'm no Einstein but when I see numbers like that I get alarmed.
My prediction: We will see a gradual, but noticable decline in accurate media stories relating to H1N1.
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 19 2009 at 4:00pm |
||||||||||||
|
hi....thanks for posting. I agree, the spread will be toned down during the summer, I'm ok
as long as it's mild. The Govt should be more forward moving on asking people to stock
some supplies ... for the fall return. Keep us posted on events down under...
..................................
this from....
Rear Admiral Anne Schuchat, M.D., is the current Interim Deputy Director for Science and Public Health Program at the CDC. "One of our working hypotheses is that older adults may have some pre-existing
protection against this virus due to their exposure long ago to some virus that may be
distantly related," Schuchat said.
...............................................
From: Salient points in the history of swine influenza (adapted from Done and Brown, 1999), from Swine influenza: a zoonosis, Paul Heinen
History of swine influenza (In Humans)
1918 May have been cause of human pandemic [19], which resulted in 20-40 million
human deaths.
influenza H1N1 strain (A/swinw/Iowa/30) transmitted experimentally to pigs.
classical strains. Still circulating today (2002).
H3N2 virus with avian
i nternal gene segments [5]. H3N2 strains first associated with respiratory epizootics. Still
circulating today (2002).
Chalmers/73 (H3N2).
H1N1 virus from a
pneumonia patient in the Netherlands.
(avian human classical swine) reassortants, distinct from earlier strains and European
strains. H1N2 identical to H3N2, but with H1HA from classical swine H1N1, also isolated.
In North America: classical swine H1N1, triple reassortant H3N2.
............................................ |
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 19 2009 at 6:48pm |
||||||||||||
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/swineflu/news/may1909hospital-jw.html................
CDC finds patterns in novel flu hospitalizations
Lisa Schnirring May 19, 2009 (CIDRAP News) – In a first early look at trends in patients who have been hospitalized with novel influenza H1N1infections, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today that all but one of a group of 30 patients presented with fever and that about two thirds of them had an underlying medical condition. The CDC's review, based on California patients who were hospitalized from Apr 20 through May 17, appeared yesterday in an early online version of Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). Anne Schuchat, MD, interim deputy director CDC's science and public health program, said during a media briefing today that the majority of patients recovered without problems after short hospitalizations, though some had severe illness with prolonged complications and remain hospitalized. As of May 17, California officials have reported 553 confirmed or probable novel influenza cases. The 30 patients who were hospitalized are from 11 counties, most located in the southern or central part of the state. The age range was 27 days to 89 years, with a median age of 27.5 years. The report contains detailed clinical descriptions of four patients that represent a range of illness severity, including:
The most common diagnoses at admission were pneumonia and dehydration. Of the 19 patients who had underlying health conditions, the most common were chronic lung disease, immunosuppression, cardiac disease, diabetes, and obesity. The most common symptoms were fever, cough, vomiting, and shortness of breath. "That's unusual for seasonal flu," Schuchat said. Five of the patients were pregnant. Two of the women miscarried—one at 13 weeks and the other at 35 weeks. CDC officials emphasized last week that pregnancy is a known influenza risk factor and that pregnant women who have suspected, probable, or confirmed novel flu cases should receive oseltamivir (Tamiflu) for 5 days. None of the patients had microbiological evidence of a secondary bacterial infection. Schuchat said that mirrors what CDC officials are seeing elsewhere, but she added that researchers are monitoring the situation closely. A previous report on Mexican patients who died from novel influenza infections also indicated that many had viral, not bacterial, pneumonia. Half of the patients received oseltamivir, and five were treated within 48 hours of symptom onset. Of the 15 who didn't receive antiviral treatment, 6 sought medical care more than 48 hours after they got sick. Though the patients who needed prolonged intensive care were more likely to be very young, be very old, or have a debilitating underlying medical condition, the CDC emphasized that one 18-year-old patient who was relatively healthy and had only mild chronic lung condition required ICU treatment and a ventilator. Schuchat said the CDC recommends that all hospitalized patients be monitored carefully and receive antiviral therapy, even if they're past 48 hours of symptom onset. CDC. Hospitalized patients with novel influenza A (H1N1)virus infection, California, April-May 2009. MMWR 2009 May 18;58(Early Release):1-5 [Full text] See also: May 12 CIDRAP News story "CDC urges vigilance for pregnant women with flu symptoms" |
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 19 2009 at 8:17pm |
||||||||||||
|
(Note- the punch line is in yellow)
Are we asking... What ever happened to..."Well, if there is a pandemic we will not have a
seasonal output of 900 million doses. Using an additive that boosts immune response
would also boost production capacity, she said. Still, 4.9 billion doses is a "very optimistic
maximum" that depends on whether people would need one or two shots, she said.
Governments are already trying to secure supplies before a pandemic is declared.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jason Gale in Singapore at j.gale@bloomberg.net; Dermot Doherty in Geneva at Ddoherty9@bloomberg.net http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...CRnJg&refer=uk ...........................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Annie
Valued Member 
Joined: April 06 2009 Location: East Texas Status: Offline Points: 319 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 19 2009 at 8:21pm |
||||||||||||
 |
|||||||||||||
|
Dense populations are going to be hit very hard by this pestiferousness little (flu virus) monster. "Technologist"
Stock 3 months water, food, weapon/ammo, meds, supplies, and some money at home. |
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 19 2009 at 8:34pm |
||||||||||||
|
Annie.. talk to us... never hold in the worry. My pop had some of the above and has kept on one flu season after another. That is only a guideline ... not Gospel. Remember in the 1918 pandemic.... 98% of the people lived.
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
ME163
Admin Group
Joined: September 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 4552 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 19 2009 at 8:35pm |
||||||||||||
|
This is bad, very bad indeed....
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 19 2009 at 9:34pm |
||||||||||||
|
Here are some videos from CDC...
and for diversion...
The Nightly Business Report
..............................................
Antiques Road Show
..................................
Antiques Road Show Field Trips
....................................................
Palm Springs, Hour 1 | Episode 1301
Art Theft: A California Plein Air Collection Jim McCarty web.mac.com/jcmccarty Palm Springs, Hour 2 | Episode 1302
Vintage Trophy Belt Buckles: Pappy & Harriet's Pioneertown Palace www.pappyandharriets.com Dallas, Hour 1 | Episode 1304
28-Star American Flags: The Dallas Historical Society www.hallofstate.com Peter Keim www.agrandoldflag.com Wichita, Hour 1 | Episode 1307
Vintage Air Travel Posters: Kansas Aviation Museum www.kansasaviationmuseum.org International Coleman Collector’s Club
www.colemancollectorsclub.com/ Chattanooga, Hour 1 | Episode 1310
Civil War-Era Cannon: Chickamauga and Chattanooga National Park www.nps.gov/chch Historical Ordnance Works
www.historicalordnanceworks.com/ Chattanooga, Hour 2 | Episode 1311
Minor League Baseball Collectibles: Chattanooga Lookouts www.lookouts.com Andy Broome
www.andybroome.com Chattanooga, Hour 3 | Episode 1312
Folk Art Walking Sticks: City of Chattanooga Parks & Recreation www.chattanooga.gov Grand Rapids, Hour 1 | Episode 1313
Vintage Hood Ornaments: Gilmore Car Museum www.gilmorecarmuseum.org Hartford, Hour 1 | Episode 1316
Maritime Paintings: Mystic Seaport, The Museum of America and the Sea www.mysticseaport.org Hartford, Hour 2 | Episode 1317
Antique Connecticut Tall Clocks: American Clock & Watch Museum www.clockmuseum.org Hartford, Hour 3 | Episode 1318
Connecticut Inn & Tavern Signs: Connecticut Historical Society www.chs.org |
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
July
Valued Member
Joined: May 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1660 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 20 2009 at 4:56am |
||||||||||||
Pandemic alert level remains at phase 5, says WHO chief
2009-05-20 00:36:35 GMT2009-05-20 08:36:35 (Beijing Time)
Xinhua English
World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Margaret Chan speaks at a press conference in Geneva May 19, 2009.(Xinhua Photo)
World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Margaret Chan speaks while United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon looks on at a press conference in Geneva May 19, 2009. (Xinhua Photo)GENEVA, May 19 (Xinhua) -- The World Health Organization (WHO)'s pandemic alert level remains at phase 5, despite the quick increase of new A/H1N1 infections in Japan, the chief of the UN agency said on Tuesday. "I must emphasize we are still in phase 5," WHO Director-general Dr. Margaret Chan told a news conference in Geneva, where the 62nd World Health Assembly (WHA) is being held. The total number of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 flu cases in Japan has increased to 159 as of Tuesday, while the number for Sunday was only seven, according to the tally of the WHO. But Chan said most of the infections in Japan happened in schools through contacts with patients. There may be some cases that health authorities were not able to identify linkage of patients, but this is not unusual, Chan said, adding that similar situations had already happened in Britain and some schools in New York. "So we will continue to work with the (Japanese) government and monitor the evolution of the situation," Chan said. According to the WHO's current pandemic alert system, phase 5 means a pandemic is imminent, while a raise to phase 6, the highest level, will mean a pandemic is under way. But the changes of alert phases are mainly based on the geographic spread of the flu virus, instead of the severity and deadliness of diseases. On the opening day of the WHA on Monday, health ministers of Britain, Japan and some other countries urged the WHO to revise the alert system and take into consideration the severity of the disease before declaring a pandemic. Chan told the assembly that she would follow their instructions carefully, particularly concerning the criteria for a move to phase 6. Source:http://english.sina.com/life/p/2009/0519/242411.html
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 20 2009 at 10:43am |
||||||||||||
|
hi July...good to see you here. I'm listening to the CDC briefing ... there was a question (I was waiting for it) on the new vaccine they are making. And if it will protect people if the novel H1N1 virus changes before the fall flu season.... the answer was that there is a "posibility" it may not (protect.)
in many opinions...it will go into the North and South East Asian whirlpool this summer and
come back here in the fall... the same? I think not. So that "posibility" is a reality.
.............................
Everyone must decide for their own family, keep asking questions, always be informed.
...........
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
noflu4u
V.I.P. Member
Joined: May 03 2009 Status: Offline Points: 431 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 20 2009 at 11:00am |
||||||||||||
|
.
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 20 2009 at 11:47am |
||||||||||||
|
I think most people give the flu a glance and go about daily life. What does it take to get
everyone's attention? to put something away for the fall just in case is well worth the
effort.
This out of Utah...
He said he was troubled by what he called "flu fatigue. It is not bogus. It is not trumped up. It is not false. It is real."
Our Govt. is very concerned about "flu fatigue". The Govt. will wait until absolutely the pre
planned moment to assist... which makes sense. And it will not be at the time of the
phase 6 declaration... please see Govt. stages page 7 of this thread.
.........................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
gady71
Valued Member
Joined: June 06 2006 Location: Romania Status: Offline Points: 1661 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 20 2009 at 12:11pm |
||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
I do apologize for my poor english. Prepare for the Worst and Hope for the Best!
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 20 2009 at 2:00pm |
||||||||||||
|
(She....being Dr. Chan of WHO)
...................................................................................................
seasonal output of 900 million doses. Using an additive that boosts immune response
would also boost production capacity, she said. Still, 4.9 billion doses is a "very optimistic
maximum" that depends on whether people would need one or two shots, she said.
(quoting Dr. Chan) Governments are already trying to secure supplies before a pandemic is declared.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jason Gale in Singapore at j.gale@bloomberg.net; Dermot Doherty in Geneva at Ddoherty9@bloomberg.net http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...CRnJg&refer=uk ....................
...The U.S. hasn't ordered any, Sebelius said today in Geneva...
Waiting until we see what comes out of North and South East Asia
in August, September?
..........
Doctor Dan Jernigan
On CDC Briefing May 20, 2009
.....................................................
Candidate viruses will be ready the end of May to be sent off to Manufacturers.
An early vaccine could be given to Healthcare workers. (if they will take it)
Early meaning as late as October.
On the virus being different by the time a vaccine is available, there is a possibility,
there may be a need of a second, different (additional) vaccine.
44 States are now able to do their own novel H1N1 confirmations.
NYC Health Dept Notices sharp increase in Emergency room visits.
78% of viruses collected in surveillance are novel H1N1.
Of the 247 hospitalizations, 70% have underlying conditions.
Seeing pneumonia with H1N1 Hospitalizations.
Out of all confirmed and possible H1N1 cases, 60% are 5 to 24 yrs old.
Of those cases hospitalized, 40% are 19 to 49 yrs old.
(wondering about the ages of the other 60% hospitalized?)
Evidence of reactivity infers that there may be cross immunity in some people
born prior to 1957.... (while also saying the community has no immunity to this)
School age children with severe diease Hospitalized ?
Not clear... info given... uses a new number of Hospitalizations "looked at" and out of
those 164... we've done some analysis.... the median age hospitalized is 19 yrs.
of Hospitalized
..............................
about 18% 10 to 18 yrs old
about 11% 5 to 9 yrs old
...................................................
about 29% 5 to 18 yrs old
age 50 and over 13%
Largest number of hospitalizaions
37% 19 to 49 yrs old
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 20 2009 at 10:14pm |
||||||||||||
|
Dr. Max Kahn, a Manhattan pediatrician, says his office performs a simple nasal swab test
that can distinguish influenza from more than 100 other viruses that can cause cold
symptoms.
"We can't do anything more," he said. "If the child is significantly ill, we'll give an antiviral medication."
If the parent asks for the new swine flu test, he tells them that the only laboratory performing it is the state's, "and they're swamped and only doing people who are
hospitalized or have underlying disease."
source
Did I read that right?
there have been... 247 hospitalizations? After 9/11... we can call 247 hospitalizations in how many days.... swamped? (Of the 247 hospitalizations, 70% have underlying conditions. )
Can a NYC Doctor tell us if 247...can swamp the city?
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
hope4bestprep4wrst
V.I.P. Member
Joined: August 01 2008 Status: Offline Points: 148 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 21 2009 at 4:47am |
||||||||||||
|
247 hospitalizations can swamp one or two hospitals but not an entire city with dozens of hospitals.
"Health care industry employs approximately 375,000 people in New York City, making it the city's largest employer. In New York, 40,000 physicians work at more than 70 hospitals ; the city's 20 public hospitals served 1.5 million people in 1998 alone." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_New_York_City#Medicine_and_biomedical_research Denise |
|||||||||||||
|
Be Well
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
HoosierMom
Valued Member
Joined: June 15 2006 Status: Offline Points: 334 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 21 2009 at 6:53am |
||||||||||||
|
If they are "overwhelme" that just scares the bejeezes out of me thinking about the possibility in the fall. Just drives the message home that we are soooo on our own if this pandemic develops in the fall.
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
July
Valued Member
Joined: May 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1660 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 21 2009 at 8:27am |
||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 21 2009 at 8:46am |
||||||||||||
|
from Setag-
Having a look at the May 20th 2009 info pdf...from the CDC...I wrote from the May 20th audio
briefing yesterday. Reporter wanted to know about school age hospitalizations....
Looking at the charts on the pdf....
50% of the hospitalizations are
children age 0 to 18 years old...
in 1918 the greatest number of deaths were............ infants to age 4 yrs.
Number of cases reported to CDC as of May 20th 2009
New York
200 to 400 cases
Does that sound right?
New York State is not reporting Probable Cases.
About 20 states are not reporting them.
..................................................................................
I will be adding info here... for the next half hour.
..............
thank you July...
from WHO...
...doubts fostered by its mild symptoms. ..."Invoking phase six would be disproportionate with the current situation."
If you look at the pdf chart on page 20... and call it mild as does the CDC....and then
draw a line in bell fashion upward to the winter flu season....up...up....up...try
not to fall off your chair.
PDF Chart here-
................
They have a lot to do to get ready for September. No sense getting a panic going,,,but it
is important to tell people to make plans for children if schools close and to have some
extra food at home incase of illness.... this needs to be done bit by bit...use tv to do it.
We are used to flood, hurricane info...no one will fall apart. If this is not done...people
will feel out of control.
Have all the drug stores set up flu displays with info on not giving children asprin.
have flu products out, recipe for home made pedialyte...
..............
Please show these recipes to your Doctor and ask if he/she agrees with the formula.
By: DiB's After having three kids, I could have saved a lot of $ making this myself.
Ingredients
Directions
or
When your child is sick, your health care provider may recommend an electrolyte replacement drink like Pedialyte or Gatorade. This alternative recipe can be made at home for less money and you can choose to avoid ingredients like dyes that groups have asked the FDA to ban (red 40 and Blue 1 are in Pedialyte liquid and Red 40, Blue 1, Yellow 6 are in the Pedialyte popsicles).
Prep Time: 0 hours, 2 minutesCook Time: 0 hoursIngredients:
Preparation:Mix all ingredients together and refrigerate. Use the mix within 4 days.This can also be frozen into popsicles. For those who are not concerned with dyes, using Kool-Aid or another powdered drink mix will add flavor. For those concerned with dyes, you can get something called the Flavorit Home Flavoring Kit, which is like what they use at the pharmacy to mask really bitter medications. It is dye-free, sugar-free and they've yet to have an allergic reaction to any of the flavors. You can pick these up at many drug stores. Kool-Aid also has a line of flavors called "Invisibles" that are dye-free. And really, if your child is vomiting, who wants to clean up that bright red or blue mess? ......................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
coyote
Admin Group
Joined: April 25 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8395 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 21 2009 at 9:17am |
||||||||||||
|
Must be global before raising.
GENEVA (Reuters) - The head of the World Health Organization said on Thursday she would not hesitate to raise the global pandemic alert to the top of the six-point scale if the new H1N1 flu is spreading globally. "When I see more signals coming from the virus itself or the spread of the disease, including severity, I would not shy away from making a very difficult decision. I would not compromise the world people's health," Margaret Chan said. |
|||||||||||||
|
Long time lurker since day one to Member.
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 21 2009 at 9:21am |
||||||||||||
|
In other words they are waiting for the info out of the North and South East Asia region....where our fall flu normally comes from. it's wait and see now.
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 21 2009 at 4:21pm |
||||||||||||
|
CDC Telebriefing on Investigation of Human Cases of H1N1 Flu May 21, 2009, 12 noon ET |
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 21 2009 at 9:37pm |
||||||||||||
|
in the 1918 "swine flu" high number of deaths in the 0 to age 4 group.
It is showing up again in the 2009 "swine flu" in this 0 to 4 age range.
But they say the over 65 group at present is not yet showing a similar fatality range.
 |
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 21 2009 at 10:44pm |
||||||||||||
|
Characteristics of
Influenza Pandemics Flu pandemics occur when the virus acquires a new hemagglutinin and/or neuraminidase Because the population has no pre-existing
immunity, morbidity and mortality in flu pandemic are high, esp in younger people To cause a pandemic, the flu virus must be
able to spread person-to-person easily (e.g., the reproductive index is high) Causes successive waves of infection
Second or later waves of the pandemic
Based on past experiences, at least a second severe wave of outbreaks caused by the
new virus would be expected to occur within 3-9 months of the initial epidemic in many
countries.
30% or less of the population, then circulates again among those not infected the first
time. This may occur because of the relatively lower level of population immunity.
circulation during the summer in the U.S. This may permit evolution of the virus' H and
N protein (antigenic drift) to better adapt to infecting more people.
........................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 23 2009 at 10:58am |
||||||||||||
|
Personal thoughts on transcript of virtual press conference, Dr Keiji Fukuda, Assistant Director-General ad Interim for Health Security and Environment, World Health Organization 22 May 2009 ............................................................................................................................................ A Reporter forgot the Doctors' message of the need for flexibility moving from phase 5 to phase 6. "...changed the rule of the game in the middle of the game itself..." Another Reporter wanted to know if severity meant ...dead people in the hospital? A Reporter asked about protecting pilgrims going to the Hajj in Saudi Arabia. The Doctor answered in part- "...how to protect the pilgrims who are coming to the Hajj. It is a difficult situation to think through and how to protect people in this kind of situation." (My personal opinion is, call off the Hajj for this year.) Reporters wanted to know ...when... the WHO will move to Phase 6 Pandemic Level. The Doctor pretty much answered the question before they asked. "...they still have to focus on those unusual cases and investigate them very intensively. This is how we are going to find out new patterns about this disease, this is how we are going to find out when the epidemiology is changing." When pressed The Doctor went on to say... "...if the virus moves into the Southern Hemisphere and causes significant outbreaks in places such as Africa or South America and we see patterns which are different from what we are seeing in North America and that it appears clear that there is either a much more severe effect or there is a change in how the virus is behaving, these are the kinds of things which would signal that there is an increased risk for people getting harmed." And lastly... I found this logical for the time being. "...moving towards surveillance in which they are looking at: rates of illness, numbers of people appearing at doctors offices with illness with consistent with H1N1 infection, and they are really going to begin deemphasizing, counting cases one by one." and... "In fact most of the cases that we are seeing right now are clinically mild and we are not having the kind of high death rates that we might expect if we were to see an H5N1pandemic. Moreover. what the countries said is that we are in this mixed situation and we are concerned that if we go to Phase 6 the message to our populations will be: "You should be very afraid", whereas in fact we think that it indicates that the virus is spreading out but the level of fear should not go up and there should not be an increase in anxiety." Source- http://www.who.int/mediacentre/influenzaAH1N1_presstranscript_20090522.pdf |
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 25 2009 at 3:50pm |
||||||||||||
|
Do you think masks protect you? :/
......................................................
updated info-
Interim Recommendations for Facemask and Respirator Use to Reduce Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus TransmissionMay 23, 2009 9:00 AM ET VIDEO
.............................
NPR
source...article here-
.........................................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 25 2009 at 4:29pm |
||||||||||||
Google: More People Will Die From Swine Flu If We Cannot Retain Search Data
Co-founder makes ridiculous assertions to justify sidestepping privacy concerns
Google has cited a possible influenza pandemic as a reason why it should be allowed to permanently retain users’ search data without restrictions.
There as a reason why it should be allowed to permanently retain users' search data without restrictions. is an ongoing debate within the European Commission as to how long web companies should be able to keep such data, with privacy advocates suggesting it be wiped after six months. However, Google co-founder Larry Page has suggested that the company should not be hindered in retaining search data, rather ludicrously suggesting that the more restrictions there are on data retention, the "more likely we all are to die". "Our up-to-date influenza estimates may enable public health officials and health professionals to better respond to seasonal epidemics and pandemics," Page is reported to have claimed at Google annual Zeitgeist conference in London. He said Google's ability to plot and predict potential pandemics would not be possible if the firm had to delete search data after six months, the BBC reports. (Article continues) .......................................
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 26 2009 at 12:35pm |
||||||||||||
|
Anne Schuchat, M.D., Interim Deputy Director for Science and Public Health Program
Gleenings from todays briefing.
......................................................
They do expect a surge in cases in the fall... and are in a transition period in how they look at cases the next 10 weeks.
They are preparing for the fall.
Looking at clinical patterns to identify risk factors.
almost all the positives for flu virus are now H1N1.
Less disease showing up now than a week ago.
on Testing in the Southern Hemisphere....
Does this virus cause hospitalizations with penumonia.
On Vaccine production...
Waiting til ....as late as possible ...learn all possible from Southern Hemisphere
experience...severity and clinical pilot lots...to make a decision in late summer, early fall.
On the fall surge.... expect seasonal flu to return in early to late fall or winter...this virus
(novel H1N1) will continue to circulate...wether it will dominate or disapear...Preparing for
the possibilty it will return.
Latest info...oseltamiver no resistance yet .. for novel H1N1.
asking about a vaccine for the Southern Hemisphere...no time to produce vaccine for the
southern Hemisphere flu season this summer...Trying to address their eventual needs.
Active efforts....countries that will need help.
New York still seeing cases. Why hasn't the virus trickled out more to the outlying community?
New York is a part of region 2... higher level of illness...also region 1 which is New England.
CDC has provided assistance to NYC. NY is an active investigation.
Schools are not to be closed to lessen transmission.
Ill children need to stay at home and recover.
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
gady71
Valued Member
Joined: June 06 2006 Location: Romania Status: Offline Points: 1661 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 26 2009 at 12:48pm |
||||||||||||
|
thank you again Mary08
|
|||||||||||||
|
I do apologize for my poor english. Prepare for the Worst and Hope for the Best!
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Guests
Guest Group
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 28 2009 at 1:04pm |
||||||||||||
|
My own take on the-
Not seeing dramatic increases...reporting over the long weekend case counts... inter 13 398 confirmed suspected
largest number of cases, 62% 5-24 yrs old
Begining next week, will have a different scehual, less case count reporting...
But Seasonal H1N1 causes fewer deaths than H3N2. (this is a comparison?) Novel H1N1 attack rate similar to seasonal flu. (this novel H1N1 strain is dangerous to pregnant women...not in this comparison?)
Hospitalizations... pregnancy and underlying conditions...seeing this with seasonal flu
from candidate virus strains...clinical studies over the summer months.
Developing bulk ingredients, antigen adjuvant for the vaccines.
Meeting timelines...but production is unpredictable. Final vaccine needs to wait for clinical studies...ingredients...long way to go before deciding on vaccinating...would be in the fall... not before October.
(in 1918 largest deathrate was in October)
updated data?
...we are trying to gauge the intensity of reporting, to the information needs, some of the delay that happens is because we are testing isolates and waiting for results...
there is a natural dely there...(locally)... getting information from NYC in a timely way.
(in other words......it's national reporting ...expect the delay)
novel H1N1
Use of vaccine in the fall...public input in these decisions...how severe .... how disrupting, who is getting disease... etc. Clinical studies will be vital... if tests suggest we can not
make a vaccine that is protective, or that there is unacceptable safety properties of a
vaccine ...will need to weigh that heavily in a reccomendation for vaccination.
one of the international collaborating centers is in Australia. ...a number of countries....a
number of places...
...attack rate information we have so far is partial...the range we are seeing is similar, ...with a higher rate in younger kids.... we haven't yet measured asymptomatic i
infections...it's possible with additional studies these attack rates will be adjusted
upwards... (to soon to say)
now.....7- 7 % range... high in Mexico. 1918 ... 30% or so
.................................................................................................................. (Perhaps we were not so aware of how seasonal influenza harmed pegnent women in the past?)
Please.... be on the look out for these warning signs below.
Flu like symptoms inprove but then come back with fever and cough.
In children emergency warning signs that need urgent medical attention include: Fast breathing or trouble breathing Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath One of the Doctors mentioned this... for the 1918 flu.... he said it was imperitive to stay flat
in bed and not get up, because some did...thinking they were better and it came back
and .... not good. So if you are ill just don't try to bounce back quickly...although this was
not a finding in the first wave. .... but, later.
...............................................
............................................................................ pandemicflu.gov I know I keep putting up these warning signs.... hoping if needed...it will be remembered. |
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Annie
Valued Member
Joined: April 06 2009 Location: East Texas Status: Offline Points: 319 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: May 30 2009 at 12:58pm |
||||||||||||
|
Thanks Mary. Could you check the advise staying "flat in bed and not get up," I always thought that was a prescription for pneumonia. I just do not know. I'd have thought at least sitting up would help, all the 1918 pictures of beds lined up do show everyone flat in bed, (?pillow?). Thanks, Annie
|
|||||||||||||
|
Dense populations are going to be hit very hard by this pestiferousness little (flu virus) monster. "Technologist"
Stock 3 months water, food, weapon/ammo, meds, supplies, and some money at home. |
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Post Reply
|
Page <12345 14> |
Tweet
|
| Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You can vote in polls in this forum |
Topic Options
Staff Writer
Mary08 wrote: