Sounds like the antique Warthog is mopping up. I wonder how many have been "smuggled" in?

Viktor Kovalenko

@MrKovalenko

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3zNxBahukU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3zNxBahukU ;The New Arlas

Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 10, 2022 - Ukraine continues its offensive around the Kharkov region after its Kherson offensive failed at great cost in lives and equipment; - Tactical gains by Ukraine in Kharkov are also coming at great cost in lives and equipment and will leave Ukrainian forces in ultimately a weaker position than when they began; - Russian withdrawals are tactical, focusing on long-term victory rather than daily headlines; - Russia has repeatedly conserved manpower and equipment in the face of Ukrainian surges to later reform lines and counter attack on their own terms; - The correlation of forces continues to favor Russia; References: Guardian - Russia sends reinforcements to Kharkiv to repel Ukraine counterattack: https://www.theguardian.com/world/202... The Duran - Kharkov, Palmyra and constraints of a 'special military operation': https://youtu.be/zMdmlZs-F9Y Where to Find My Work: Visit The New Atlas Website: https://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/ Follow The New Atlas on Telegram: https://t.me/brianlovethailand Odysee (YouTube alternative): https://odysee.com/@LandDestroyer:8 Rumble (YouTube alternative): https://rumble.com/c/c-1459863 Weibo: https://weibo.com/u/7726044004 ไบ�£อัน แฟนคลับ (Facebook): https://facebook.com/BrianThaiFanclub/ Line Group: https://lin.ee/JIxTpKe Gab: https://gab.com/BrianBerletic VK (Facebook alternative): https://vk.com/brianberletic

DJ, Since the basics did not change, the present Ukraine offensive is close to Russia, Ukraine succes will be short lived....Ukraine concentrated its best forces-Russia will deal with it...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4l9E7H7Grc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4l9E7H7Grc on US operators and mercenaries in Ukraine...

-German energy, 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-germanys-energy-suicide-autopsy[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-germanys-energy-suicide-autopsy ;

In a nutshell: as Engdahl describes it, this is about “the EU plan to de-industrialize one of the most energy-efficient industrial concentrations on the planet.”

DJ...if the problem is a wrong idea on how an economy works that is not solved by any (new) energy...

DJ, How can Ukrainian-Russians trust any longer Russia? [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stgKKzG3kwo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stgKKzG3kwo ...

Military Summary (MS) describing total failure of (pro)Russian defense in Chorkov-area...possible further Ukraine offensives towards [url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-september-ukrainian-military-are-on-the-outskirts-of-lysychansk[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-september-ukrainian-military-are-on-the-outskirts-of-lysychansk or Mariupol in the south-east....

I think november 4 was the new date for a referendum on parts of Ukraine joining Russia....well forget about that...As MS is telling; any "Russian-Ukrainian" working with Russia (just to get food, perspective) then falling in the hands of Ukraine simply will get killed....

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/ukraine-russian-military-explains-its-withdrawal-from-the-izium-region.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/ukraine-russian-military-explains-its-withdrawal-from-the-izium-region.html ;

Since September 4, when the Ukrainian operation north of Izium started, the Russia Defense Ministry had said nothing about the issue.

Today it finally published a statement (machine translation):

Statement by the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense

In order to achieve the stated goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbass, a decision was made to regroup the Russian troops stationed in the Balakleya and Izyum regions to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.

To this end, within three days, an operation was carried out to curtail and organize the transfer of the Izyum-Balakley group of troops to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic.

During this operation, a number of distraction and demonstration activities were carried out with the designation of the real actions of the troops.

In order to prevent damage to Russian troops, a powerful fire defeat was inflicted on the enemy using aviation, missile troops and artillery.

Over three days, more than two thousand Ukrainian and foreign fighters were destroyed, as well as over a hundred units of armored vehicles and artillery.

(Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation)

Has that been the plan all along?

In retrospect that seems likely. The Russian military must have know that the Ukrainian attack was coming. There was only light resistance against the Ukrainian attack. Major Russian units had already been moved out of the area. The region did not have any public priority in Russian planing. A larger fight would have cost many Russian soldier and civilian lives.

So there were no cunning plans to surround the Ukrainian forces and no real disaster or success on either side.

Well, that is at least what the Russian military says. It also fits to the known facts.

There may be another reason why the Russian military did not want to fight for Izium. In May 1942, during the Second Battle of Kharkov, a Soviet counterattack on Nazi held Kharkov was defeated by two preplanned Nazi attacks south and north of Izium.

The names on the map will look familiar to those who have followed the current battle over the past days.

The Soviet counterattack ended in a bloody defeat:

On 17 May, the German 3rd Panzer Corps and XXXXIV Army Corps under the command of Fedor von Bock, supported by aircraft, arrived, enabling the Germans to launch Operation Fridericus, pushing back the Soviet Barvenkovo bridgehead to the south. On 18 May, [Marshal Semyon] Timoshenko requested permission to fall back, but Stalin rejected the request. On 19 May, Paulus launched a general offensive to the north as Bock's troops advanced in the south, thus attempting to surround the Soviets in the Izium salient. Realizing the risk of having entire armies surrounded, Stalin authorized the withdraw, but by that time the Soviet forces were already started to be closed in. On 20 May, the nearly surrounded Soviet forces mounted counteroffensives, but none of the attempts were successful in breaking through the German lines. The Soviets achieved some small victories on 21 and 22 May, but by 24 May, they were surrounded near Kharkov.
...
The Second Battle of Kharkov resulted in an extremely costly loss to the Soviets, which saw 207,000 men killed, wounded, or captured; some estimates put the number as high as 240,000. Over 1,000 Soviet tanks were destroyed during this battle, as well as the loss of 57,000 horses. German losses were much smaller than the Soviets, with over 20,000 killed, wounded, or captured. Soviet General Georgy Zhukov later blamed this major defeat on Stalin, who underestimated German strength in the region and failed to prepare an adequate reserve force to counter the arrival of the German reinforcement that turned the tide.

So it's on towards Donbas.

DJ....[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-counter-offensive-so-far-more-than-4-000-dead-in-two-days[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-counter-offensive-so-far-more-than-4-000-dead-in-two-days ...The Ukraine offensives in Kherson (4000 deaths on Ukraine side) and Charkov (2000/2500 Ukraine deaths) ...point is in Charkov Ukraine did beat Russia....

It does not matter how many Russians did get killed...in PR-ways...Russia almost did loose this war...HT claiming 75,000 Russian military on their way from Moscow (HT claims they are from Vladivostok-area; travelled 3 weeks...)... The "pro-Russian" "3rd Army" made up most from volunteers -a lot of them Ukrainians with Russian roots-up to 60,000 military may be spreading on the Ukraine frontlines...

One of the things "gone wrong" from the Russian side is most of the frontline fighting was done by Donetsk/Luhansk militia...Russia limited the role of Russian military to the south (via Crimea) and limited north of Charkov. Russia "supported" Ukraine-Russians with artillery, air force, intel, special forces...Ukraine did find a weak spot and exploited it east of Charkov...

DJ-So what is next ? 

Will the "S.M.O."Special Military Operation switch to full war ? Would that only change the name ? 

DJ-All out war would see massive air strikes, missile attacks all over Ukraine...For that matter the succesfull Ukraine offensive east of Charkov is yet another escalation...Russia will react...very likely send in massive numbers of Russian forces...

Ukraine may have had "western help" going further then only weapons and intel...So far only limited info on NATO special forces (US,UK, Poland) did see the news...NATO will have played the major role in the Charkov offensive...maybe going as far as air support...

So do we already see further escalation of the RIC-NATO war ? [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-communications-satellite-galaxy-11-breaking-up-in-orbit[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-communications-satellite-galaxy-11-breaking-up-in-orbit ???

[url]https://southfront.org/briefing-by-the-chief-of-the-radiation-chemical-and-biological-protection-troops-of-the-armed-forces-of-the-russian-federation-lieutenant-general-igor-kirillov/[/url] or https://southfront.org/briefing-by-the-chief-of-the-radiation-chemical-and-biological-protection-troops-of-the-armed-forces-of-the-russian-federation-lieutenant-general-igor-kirillov/ on the diplomatic front Russian claim on US bio-labs in Ukraine...

The Iran-deal talks failed [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-european-criticism-of-nuclear-demands-unconstructive-takes-zionist-path/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-european-criticism-of-nuclear-demands-unconstructive-takes-zionist-path/ ...US selling weapons to Taiwan, Pakistan...

DJ-I would love to see an end to war....people killing eachother in lots of different ways is the opposite of humanity...We are able to kill more people in a shorter time then ever before...Even China-with its limited nuclear arsenal can "kill the world"...However "bevause we can" is NOT a reason to do it...

My best hope is that there is a "third party" trying to bring Russia-US talks to end this war....

DJ, 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/the-izium-withdrawal-a-catalyst-for-starting-in-earnest.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/the-izium-withdrawal-a-catalyst-for-starting-in-earnest.html ;

The biggest opponents to Putin's policies are the nationalist, not the 'western' favored 'liberal' clowns like Navalny. The nationalists can be found on the political left, right and center. They are not well organized but have a voice throughout the political spectrum. (The former President Dimitri Medvedev currently plays to that audience.) The nationalists even have a voice in public media.

Here are Gilbert Doctorow's observations of their recent position discussed in prominent Russian talk shows:

For his part, Vladimir Solovyov went beyond presentation of the threat posed by the United States and its allies to analysis of Russia’s possible response. He spoke at length, and we may assume that what he was saying had the direct approval of the Kremlin, ..
...
So, what did Solovyov have to say? First, that Ramstein marked a new stage in the war, because of the more threatening nature of the weapons systems announced for delivery, such as missiles with accuracy of 1 to 2 meters when fired from distances of 20 or 30 kilometers thanks to their GPS-guided flight, in contrast to the laser-guided missiles delivered to Ukraine up till now. In the same category, there are weapons designed to destroy the Russians’ radar systems used for directing artillery fire. Second, that Ramstein marked the further expansion of the coalition or holy crusade waging war on Russia. Third, that in effect this is no longer a proxy war but a real direct war with NATO and should be prosecuted with appropriate mustering of all resources at home and abroad.

Said Solovyov, Russia should throw off constraints and destroy the Ukrainian dual use infrastructure which makes it possible to move Western weapons across the country to the front. The railway system, the bridges, the electricity generating stations all should become fair targets. Moreover, Kiev should no longer be spared missile strikes and destruction of the ministries and presidential apparatus responsible for prosecution of the war. I note that these ideas were aired on the Solovyov program more than a month ago but then disappeared from view while the Russians were making great gains on the ground. The latest setbacks and the new risks associated with the Western policies set out at Ramstein bring them to the surface again.

The recent Ramstein meeting promised "long term assistance" to the Ukraine and announced weapon transfers of new quality.

In the view of the nationalists in Russia it requires a response. Russia, in their view, needs to escalate.

The Kremlin was and is extremely averse to Russian casualties. In this war it prioritizes Russian lives over everything else. That has worked well during the first months of the war. In my estimate the Russian casualties so far were about one tenth of the Ukrainian ones. But the Ukrainian leadership has never cared about casualty numbers. The issue thus does not really matter to it.

Russia had set out to 'demilitarize' and to 'denazify' the Ukraine. The main geographic priority was to liberate the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. The land corridor to Crimea, and the very Russian city of Mariupol, were also important targets.

The demilitarization, mostly by long range weapons, has worked well. The Ukraine no longer has a defense industry. The de-nazification is an ongoing process. The fascist 'nationalist' units like the Azov battalions and their brethren in the Kraken and other groups have been decimated.

The first phase of the war was about pushing the Ukrainian government into an early agreement. The threat to Kiev was designed to achieve that. It nearly worked. At the end of March Kiev agreed to fulfill Russian demands. Then Boris Johnson was sent to push for prolonging the war to "weaken Russia". The Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski has since obeyed that order.

Russia pulled back from Kiev and started phase two of the war. Since then the Luhansk oblast and the land corridor to Crimea, especially Mariupol, have been won. The liberation of the Donetsk Republic has stalled. The number of Russian and allied forces fighting the war was kept steady or even decreased over time. Meanwhile the Ukrainian forces have grown manifold. They are getting a very significant amount of arms from 'western' sources and new promises to keep those supplies coming. Even when they are armed to a lesser degree, higher numbers of men do matter over time.

This made potentially costly defeats, like recently at the Izium front, possible. The Russian military has readjusted to this threat by decreasing the held territory and by concentrating on the original aims of the war.

The Russian public, which at first did not fully understand why the war was necessary, has since grown in its awareness. It now understands the big game that is played against its country. It demands to adjust the level of resources put into the war to the one needed for a decisive victory.

That is why Dima concludes that: "We can say that today was the best ever [..] day for the Russians in the territory of Ukraine."

It is now likely assured that they will be liberated. One way or another.

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-counter-offensive-so-far-more-than-4-000-dead-in-two-days[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-counter-offensive-so-far-more-than-4-000-dead-in-two-days ; 

Upward of seventy-five-thousand (75,000) additional Russian troops are on the move.   Those troops came from Russia's Eastern Military District, all the way out by Vladivostok, and were moved to the Moscow area over the past three weeks.  Initially, it was thought that these troops would be used in normal troop rotation.  However, it NOW appears that Ukraine's counter-offensive may have resulted in re-tasking of those troops to the front as reinforcements.

When that body of troops arrives in theater, it will not only tip the scale to Russia's advantage, it will flop the scale to Russia's advantage.

DJ, The Ukraine war will further escalate....

-Western/Ukraine propaganda in the coming days will repeat claims of Russian mass murders-most likely the result of Ukraine neo-nazi's killing all those that may have worked with Russia in the area's now under Ukraine control...

-There will be a lot of public opinion pressure in Russia to regain control over those lost area's to save the ethnic Russians...

-The conflict between NATO/west and RIC/rest will widen...Israel seeking NATO support for strikes on Iran, US sending more weapons to Taiwan (as far as is possible...US high tech weapons may need chips/parts/raw materials from China/Russia). 

-As described in the MoA article; Russia may attack civilian infrastructure, administration...so far it limited that kind of warfare...

So if the goal is peace, end-of-war, we moved further away from it....

DJ, 

In a further update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTRZ0gGc1U8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTRZ0gGc1U8 Weeb Union reporting Ukraine gains in the Kherson offensive...One of the comments here;One thing that would be really nice to have to give context is numbers. I know such information is really hard to get, but they would be helpful. I've heard anything from 500-700 thousand soldiers are involved in this on the Ukrainian side. The Russians are defending with 200-210 thousand along the entire length of the front here. With a 3-fold advantage in men, Ukraine can find the weak points where Russia has relatively few men and just flood the place. This appears to be what they're doing, and Russia's just going to pull back until it has better odds for fighting rather than risk losing things stupidly. If we knew how many men were involved in these pushes, it might be helpful to give context as to why Russia is retreating. Are they being beaten horribly or is this a strategic retreat under cover of their artillery? It's hard to say with just the social media reports.  Thank you for compiling this information. It's much better than what we're getting on any mainstream news outlet. I also appreciate the effort as being unbiased and only presenting the data.

DJ...one of the MoA comments from a Russian in Moscow; 

Thank you ( b ) rarely read such a detailed summary !
I follow some blog and 3 telegram channels, but mostly nothing comes from them without taking sides and partly glorifying them!
Yes, it's true, contrary to all reports in the Western media, not only does the majority of the population support the SMO, but the voices are getting louder, more forces to use more weapons!
But, don't forget one thing... the danger of NATO escalating at the Finnish border is not small, which would almost automatically involve Belarus in a real war!
The Russian public also sees this as a real danger, at least in discussions among colleagues and neighbors! Incidentally... came through that the Chinese forces that took part in the maneuvers have not YET left Russia ??
Putin, our leadership is getting more and more pressure from ALL directions to finally come clean with NATO in Ukraine, it's just not communicated that way in the media. An attempt is made to appease these increasing opinions!
Many reservists, some of whom are Syrian fighters, are giving up their jobs and volunteering, the problem for some is that they are not allowed to because they are mostly industry professionals who are needed.
A relatively large number of women also report, which was little knowledge in Russia and there are pure women battalions!
What do I want to say with my comment (first here)?
The mood in Russia is more positive towards the SMO than it is portrayed in the media, on the contrary, the anti-NATO mood is becoming more aggressive, not only in large parts of the military leadership, but also among the people!
The SMO is not hidden, which we can already see here in Moscow from the fact that hundreds of military vehicles driving equipment mostly at night through Moscow and being relocated. Last night we counted about 700 of them, but we don't know where they were moved to? Is it now escalating in Ukraine = NATO? Many demand it, some call for moderation...but all say it must end before winter! Since a winter standstill would only serve to upgrade and plan! Oh yes, many fugitive Ukrainians IN Moscow are demonstrating for an escalation! Yes, there are plenty of these refugees in Moscow and on the outskirts!
I am trying to machine translate these words... sorry if some of them sound a bit strange.
Greetings from Moscow, I hope to have contributed something to the mood and opinion here in Russia...I read very little about that in your blog.
Except for some "clever Americans" who don't know anything about the Russian mentality, some East Germans who have a hunch, many Westerners who find Russia on the map here, but know everything?
It should be said to them that every sanction and every fallen Russian brings us closer together!

Posted by: oleg | Sep 11 2022 7:44 utc | 6

DJ...based on Russia media a lot of Russians may support further escalation....[url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-september-explosions-reported-in-voznesensk-of-mykolaiv[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-september-explosions-reported-in-voznesensk-of-mykolaiv wich maybe could start today...september 11...(1973 US coup in Chile, 2011 US terror attacks). 

Another MoA comment; 

The Kremlin was and is extremely averse to Russian casualties. In this war it prioritizes Russian lives over everything else.

This is always true. Whatever the collective west says, RF forces, earlier the Soviet forces, always cared for the soldiers' lives. A Russian soldier is a part of a family, and the life a family member is valued, so has to be safeguarded. A piece of terrain can be regained, but a dead soldier cannot!

DJ, there were some claims North Korea offered 100,000 soldiers for this war....I think Russia is able to fight in winter(conditions) may be interested in both;

-ending this war, avoiding another "never ending war"/Afghanistan scenario

-making a very clear point to the west...[url]https://southfront.org/us-led-coalition-wants-to-deploy-air-defense-systems-in-syrias-al-tanf-monitoring-group/[/url] or https://southfront.org/us-led-coalition-wants-to-deploy-air-defense-systems-in-syrias-al-tanf-monitoring-group/ ; 

The US-led coalition wants to deploy air-defense systems at al-Tanf garrison in the southeastern region of Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on September 10.

“The international coalition is preparing to deploy anti-drone air-defense batteries at al-Tanf garrison amid threats from Iranian-backed militias,” the London-based monitoring group said in its report.

Some 200 US troops are usually deployed at al-Tanf. The coalition maintains a 55-kilometer no-fly zone around the garrison, which was established in 2016. The large garrison blocks a strategic highway between the Syrian capital, Damascus, and the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.

Earlier, the SOHR reported that the US-led coalition had placed its troops in al-Tanf on high-alert out of fear of a new attack by Iranian-backed forces in Syria and Iraq. Coalition warplanes were also spotted flying over the 55-kilometers zone.

DJ, Syria, Iraq want US forces out of their countries...now also talks on a new Iran deal failed, the "west" further escalated the Ukraine war, Iran, Russia may join forces to get the US out of Syria and Iraq...Türkiye wants to limit the Kurds...

[url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1274853.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1274853.shtml ;

China will strengthen cooperation with Russia and work together with other members of the international community to boost the multipolarization of the world, Chinese experts said, as the 7th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) is being  held in Vladivostok, Russia. Russia also harshly criticized Western sanctions against it over the Ukraine crisis as they have brought great damage to everyone around the world including their own people in the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday at the forum that "the West is failing, the future is in Asia." Western nations are hurting everyone, including their own people, in an attempt to preserve global dominance that is slipping from their hands, Putin noted.

He also said that efforts to isolate Russia were in vain amid a pivot toward Asia, media reported.

DJ, Russia-Iran-China (RIC) are strategic allies...Syria, North Korea could be willing to further escalate...

I notice some western media think Ukraine is about to win the war...I would love to see an end to wars...Again-all indications are in the other-escalation-direction...

DJ, 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4rYrFxkxl4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4rYrFxkxl4 Military Summary (MS) describing Russia had to pull back reservers from the Charkov area (starting it before the Ukraine offensive) to have enough military in the south. Russia expected an Ukraine offensive in the direction of Mariupol. MS thinks Ukraine wanted to pin down Russian forces in the Charkov area so those forces could not be used in the south of Ukraine...in that view Russia getting most of its military out of the Charkov area could be seen as a Russian succes...

A comment;

if this analysis holds true, than we can deduct two things from it: 1) The Ukrainians have received a lot more equipment than publicly admitted, to the point that they were able to bring material to the frontlines AND equip large assault forces in the back. It may also be that the reports about rampant corruption in the armed forces were overblown and perhaps deliberately planted in order to conceal the collection process for the offensives. 2) The Russian forces in Ukraine are too low in manpower to fulfill their tasks. Yes, the annexation of the occupied territories would bring in conscripts for hold and defend these territories, so that the active forces could attack somewhere else, but the new operations there would again take a lot of time and then the Ukrainians would try to do the same as they do now, but perhaps with even more weapons delivered by NATO. The Ukrainians seek success in numbers, no matter how many soldiers have to be sacrificed, and use the terrain and the shorter inner lines to their advantage, to stretch Russian forces thin and overwhelm them. I see why Moscow is still refusing to mobilize at least partially, but in the not too distant future, there might be a point where the Ukrainians can equip enough soldiers to overcome the resistance and achieve their offensive strategic goals, if NATO provides them with enough support.

[url]https://southfront.org/ukrainian-forces-prepare-new-large-scale-offensive-in-ugledar-region-reports/[/url] or https://southfront.org/ukrainian-forces-prepare-new-large-scale-offensive-in-ugledar-region-reports/ 

MS claims Russia has to move its forces via Russia from Charkov to Kherson-no shorter route, not enough airlift ? 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5hes7o7WEM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5hes7o7WEM Weeb Union (WU) what an all out war scenario would look like...

DJ-Basic point by both MS and WU is Russia keeps high risk fighting as much as possible to non-Russians (for public support reasons...) so less/in-trained militia made up of Russian Ukrainians are confronted with 750,000/1 million Ukraine military (?)...pro-Russian forces around 200,000 ???

Another point, so far Russia tried to "limit the war" because they had the view Ukraine citizens are "Russian"...Russia is fighting nazi/nato...not the Ukraine citizens...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-russia-launches-massive-missile-barrage-hitting-power-plants-for-first-time[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-russia-launches-massive-missile-barrage-hitting-power-plants-for-first-time Russia now trying to knock out power, infrastructure etc. all over Ukraine...Russia has clear air/artillery/missile superiority, Ukraine by now may have more soldiers willing to take risks...

-What will be next ? 

DJ-I think Russia may go on with air/missile strikes for some days...trying to destroy not only the Ukraine army but also the infrastructure needed for that army to move...Another goal most likely will be to deny Ukraine extra supplies...

Some risks;

-NATO most likely has "lots of military" in Ukraine now running increased risks

-Poland-Ukraine border more or less open; Polish police did take over job of Ukraine police in western Ukraine, Poland itself may have "thousends of militia" fighting on the Ukraine side..

-Further Russian escalation will bring a NATO escalation; the west may run out of military hardware for ground war...increased risk of NATO airdefenses getting involved in this war...

-Perspectives on other frontlines Syria,Iraq, Kosovo, East Asia only getting worse...

DJ-All together we take another step towards "major global war"...very unwelcome & unwise...

We had arms agreements between the west and the Soviet Union/Russia, we had an Iran-deal...both were given up by the US under trump...biden however did not undo that damage...At the end most conflicts end in talks...those talks could have prevented those wars bringing scars to generations...

Municipal deputies in 18 Moscow and St. Petersburg districts demand Putin's resignation

12 September 2022 05:39

In eighteen municipal districts of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, deputies have signed a public demand for Russian president Vladimir Putin to step down from his post.

“We, the municipal deputies of Russia, believe that the actions of its president Vladimir Putin are detrimental to Russia’s and its citizens’ future. We demand Vladimir Putin's resignation from the post of the President of the Russian Federation,” reads the demand, as published by Ksenia Thorstrom, a municipal deputy of the Semenovsky District in Saint Petersburg.

DJ, 

Sources a.o. Moon of Alabama (moA), Alexander Mercouris (AM), Military Summary (MS)..

Complex situation;

-A basic point to start with; Russia wants to protect "Russian Ukrainians" in Ukraine-however also limit exposure of Russian military...has a basic view of Ukraine being Russian...

-MS claims Ukraine may have up to 1 million "soldiers" (from logistics to fighting on frontlines), on the pro-Russian side that number may be 150,000-200,000 so far..

-However Russia (so far) had superiority (more, "better") weapons, missiles, artillery air force

-Since Russia wanted to see Ukraine as "sort of Russian" it did not go for large scale attacks on civilian infra structure...

Recent changes;

-Russia pulled back forces from the Charkov region; high risk/limited use/gains-those forces were needed on more strategic parts of Ukraine under Russian control (Mariupol)

-Ukraine moved into the area Russia gave up...claimed it as a major victory...

-Both in Charkov and in the south/Kherson Russian artillery did kill possibly up to 7,000 Ukraine military-of 30,000 fresh NATO trained elite used (15,000 in Kherson, 15,000 in Charkov) in the Ukraine(NATO) offensive

-In reaction Russia attacked powergrid-now it is clear the goal was to stop and destroy military train transports (no doubt killing another hundreds of Ukraine soldiers...) 

(Most likely this war so far did see over 100,000 Ukraine military killed, on the pro-Russian side the losses are much more limited; 10/20,000. Civilian losses may also be limited-however "filtering" may see secret police killing civilians-very likely on both sides...). 

-We now see Ukraine (?) attacks deeper inside Russia...so escalation is going on here..

NATO

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/the-end-approaches-for-ukraine-as-germany-refuses-tank-supply[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/the-end-approaches-for-ukraine-as-germany-refuses-tank-supply ; 

German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht on Monday rejected demands to supply Kyiv with main battle tanks.

"No country has delivered Western-built infantry fighting vehicles or main battle tanks so far," she said in Berlin.

"We have agreed with our partners that Germany will not take such action unilaterally."

DJ, Most weapons until recent going into Ukraine were older Soviet era weapons from east European countries-once Warsaw pact members;

-Ukraine had knowledge/spare parts to use them

-Eastern European countries wanted to get rid of them-often getting more modern western weapons in return..

In the last months Ukraine did get more modern western weapons;

-Ukraine military had had some basic training

-Western advisors/instructors (HIMARS !) most likely in Ukraine

However the massive flow of NATO countries weapons into Ukraine had major problems;

-Getting it to the frontline from (most Poland) NATO territory is a stretch up to a 1,000 kilometers-with rail/roads under Russian aircontrol ...lots of transports/storage places were destroyed..

-Corruption, selling those weapons on the black market-maybe sometimes for good reasons (selling weapons they can not use to buy weapons they need) also was/is a problem

-Weapons in untrained hands not only may cause waste of those weapons, also risk of accidents...

Where are we now ?

Russian strategy has been destroying the Ukraine army...so far they were succesfull in doing so-with very limited risks for their own forces..

The fighting most is done by Ukraine-Russians from Luhansk, Donetsk and now in a "third army" made up of all kinds of volunteers (60,000 soldiers on top of the 150/200,000). 

Growing unease in Russia over the duration of this "Special Military Operation"(SMO) ...it is taking to long. The plan in february most likely was a short campain-NATO escalation was not expected...(maybe some Russians hoped for an uprising in Ukraine against zelensky...) 

Next;

-Russia may go for further escalation-certainly in reaction on attacks in Russia it self...So very likely more attacks on Ukraine military transports, railroads and Ukraine/NATO command centers...

-Again NATO is over its ears in this war, via "advisors/instructors" to intel, command, drone-pilots etc. inside Ukraine. With special forces, mercenaries, volunteers from as good as all NATO countries also on the frontline-they are more likely to become a target. 

-Escalation of other wars..

end of part 1

• GLOBAL, LAND WARFARE

As Ukraine counterattacks, Russia’s military facing steep artillery, resupply challenges

Even before this weeks' gains by Ukraine, there were signs that Russia's artillery is wearing down, and that it is running low on munitions - potentially limiting Moscow's options.

WARSAW — The rapid success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in recent days has left Russian forces retreating and yet more videos on social media of abandoned tanks and artillery units. And for Russia, every piece of hardware destroyed or abandoned on the battlefield underlines a growing consensus among Russia watchers that Moscow’s losses of both personnel and equipment in Ukraine are reaching a potential breaking point.

In discussions with Breaking Defense and in public writings, analysts particularly point to industrial challenges facing Russia’s military. Six months into what was expected to be a quick strike campaign, facing a Ukraine push that has reportedly liberated the key Russian logistics hub of Izium, Russia’s ability to resupply for its own counter is deeply in question.

Pavel Luzin, a Russian defense sector analyst from the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), has compared Moscow’s declining production in the defense industrial sector and sinking manpower levels with the rate of consumption of munitions and personnel losses in the war in Ukraine. He came to the inescapable conclusion that the Russian war machine will soon be unable to function due to a lack of both.

“For Russia, six months of war have led not only to colossal irreplaceable losses in manpower, but also to a huge waste of weapons and military equipment: guided missiles are already very scarce, shells for artillery and armored vehicles will be exhausted by the end of the year, and the state of military aviation precludes a full-scale air campaign,” Luzin wrote in an Aug. 30 analysis. “Because of the sanctions, Russia cannot continue full industrial production of weapons and replenish its arms stockpiles, which are rapidly running out.”

There are plenty of anecdotes to back up the idea that Russia is having a hard time keeping its forces supplied. One recent video shows two Ukrainian soldiers inspecting a Russian T-80BVM model tank produced at the Omsk plant. They reveal that none of the reactive armor compartments were loaded with the explosive charges that are supposed to detonate and destroy an incoming ATGM before it can penetrate the hull.