Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > Latest News
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - NUCLEAR WAR
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

NUCLEAR WAR

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <123
Author
Message
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 30 2022 at 11:40am

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/taiwan-china-2022.16244/page-13[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/taiwan-china-2022.16244/page-13 pe;osi on her way from Hawaii to Taiwan....#252;

Nancy Pelosi's plane took off from Hawaii a short while ago. It is expected to land in Taiwan in 2 hours.


DJ, [url]https://defconwarningsystem.com/[/url] or https://defconwarningsystem.com/ has a time-bar...Here in NL it is 20.23 Central European Time...New York/DC =14.23 ...Moscow 21.23...North Korea it is 3.23 sunday august 31...

pelosi went in a military plane from Andrews AFB to Hawaii-may be in a hotel now...If I get it right she first could go to Malaysia & Singapore...middle of next week she may go to Japan, South Korea with a possible stop (normal civilian flight ?) on/in Taiwan ? 

[url]https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/07/30/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-us-economic-dialogue/[/url] or https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/07/30/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-us-economic-dialogue/ 

and [url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220730000351325?section=national/defense[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220730000351325?section=national/defense ;

WASHINGTON, July 29 (Yonhap) -- The top defense officials of South Korea and the United States agreed Friday to expand the countries' upcoming joint military exercise and to restart their strategic dialogue on extended deterrence at an early date.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also reaffirmed U.S. commitment to the defense of South Korea in his bilateral meeting with South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup here, according to the South Korean defense ministry.

The decision to expand the military exercise comes after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un lashed out at the allied countries for holding such drills.

DJ...no doubt both Japan and South Korea are increasing tensions in the East Asia region...

[url]https://www.wionews.com/world/ahead-of-pelosis-visit-to-taiwan-china-to-begin-military-drills-in-taiwan-strait-501913[/url] or https://www.wionews.com/world/ahead-of-pelosis-visit-to-taiwan-china-to-begin-military-drills-in-taiwan-strait-501913 

From [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/taiwan-china-2022.16244/page-12[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/taiwan-china-2022.16244/page-12 reaction 233; US set to pass the Taiwan Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act NOW!
Representatives Michelle Steel (R-California) and Jimmy Panetta (D-California) in the House, and Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tennessee) in the Senate, the ‘Taiwan Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act’ would authorize the president to lend or lease weapons and military equipment to Taiwan, which Taipei would pay for over a 12-year period.

The bill’s name and wording closely follow that of the ‘Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act’, which was signed into law by President Joe Biden in May after passing Congress with almost no resistance.

“Taiwan is our greatest partner in the Indo-Pacific region, and their continued sovereignty is essential to challenging the New Axis of Evil,” said Blackburn, referencing an often-maligned term used by former President George W. Bush to group America’s foreign enemies together.

DJ...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-holds-live-fire-drills-taiwan-us-carrier-group-nearby-pelosis-plane-en-route[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-holds-live-fire-drills-taiwan-us-carrier-group-nearby-pelosis-plane-en-route 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/how-china-warns-of-pelosis-taiwan-trip.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/how-china-warns-of-pelosis-taiwan-trip.html ;

Don’t say we didn’t warn you – Symposium of China’s top think tank sends classic, pre-war warning to provocative Pelosi

"Don't say we didn't warn you!" - a phrase that was used by the People's Daily in 1962 before China was forced to fight the border war with India and ahead of the 1979 China-Vietnam War, was frequently mentioned during a forum held Friday by a high-level Chinese think tank, as analysts warned that open military options and comprehensive countermeasures ranging from the economy to diplomacy from China await if US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gambles with a visit to the Taiwan island during her Asia tour.
...

As far as I know the top gear phrase meaning 'last warning' has not yet been used by official government sources. But the top think tanks in China are all official, not corrupt private clubs like most U.S. think tanks are. The Global Times is the CPC's major English language outlet and it posted the phrase at the top of its homepage. Does that not in itself make it somewhat official?

The spokesperson of the Chinese military has said there would definitely be military responses to a trip. But that could be some maneuvers or fly-bys, not a war.

Pelosi is traveling in Asia on a U.S. military plane. That plane is unlikely to fly to Taiwan which is in Beijing's understanding part of China's air space. Pelosi will most likely use a civilian plane, maybe even a regular scheduled on, to fly from Singapore to Taiwan. Most likely in the middle of next week.

If the Chinese learn which flight she is on they can use a number of counter measures and/or divert the flight.

If she turns up in Taipei without intervention the Chinese government will lose some face and will have to think of other measures it can enact. Some missiles flying towards Taiwan to then drop into the sea might be a possibility. The Global Times piece above mentions others.

The visit is not necessary and risks creating a conflict that could be greatly damaging to the U.S., China and the global economy.

It is a stupid thing to do.

DJ Bejing can no longer accept pelosi visiting Taiwan...unless it would be willing to "loose face"...[url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-07-30/Xi-calls-for-uniting-Chinese-home-abroad-for-national-rejuvenation--1c5JZ93HVja/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-07-30/Xi-calls-for-uniting-Chinese-home-abroad-for-national-rejuvenation--1c5JZ93HVja/index.html ;

President Xi Jinping has stressed promoting the unity and hard work of Chinese people at home and abroad to pool strength for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. 

DJ As far as I can see a "no-fly zone" over Taiwan could be "an optimistic" scenario...

[url]http://www.kcna.kp/en[/url] or http://www.kcna.kp/en North Korea most likely "very unhappy with events"....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nuclear-war-threat-higher-cold-war-uk-national-security-advisor[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nuclear-war-threat-higher-cold-war-uk-national-security-advisor ...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 31 2022 at 12:00am

DJ, 

This Taiwan-crisis has to be seen on a global scale. The US was the economic and military #1, China wants to take that place. 

The US has NATO, Japan, South Korea, Australia/New Zealand as allies. China has Russia, Iran, no doubt Venezuela, Cuba. Nicaragua on its side. Lots of countries rather stay out of this conflict or have their own issues...

-India has very old and close relations with Russia (and the Soviet Union). But India-China relations are bad...However India (soon #1 in population-replacing China) does see the importance of the booming Asian economic market...is member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization...(SCO). 

-Iran, Pakistan also members of the SCO. Türkiye -still a NATO-member (2nd largest NATO army...) could join the SCO. "TIP" Türkiye-Iran-Pakistan, like India, put national interests first...TIP has been working on improving infrastructure, from (rail)roads to pipelines and electricity...

-India-Pakistan relations are "not good". In Pakistan [url]https://mobile.twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI[/url] or https://mobile.twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI the US via corruption was replaced. But the China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor has become a major driver for Pakistan-and TIP-development...China did get access to the Indian Ocean via Pakistan. China trade with Europe, Africa, West Asia goes via Pakistan/TIP. 

-Iran claims it does not want to build nuclear weapons-but why it is upgrading uranium then ? In West-Asia the Israel-Iran conflict is seeing most of the "fighting" in Syria. Israel attacking Iran targets...Israel did support-with the US, Gulf States IS. Also Israel-and the US-did support the Kurds...wich resulted in more or less conflicts with Türkiye...once an ally of Israel. 

-Türkiye-Erdogan-is "frustrated" the EU closed it doors for Türkiye...DJ-I think for very wrong reasons...Islam...a major EU error ! Erdogan/the AK Party for that reason looked for other partners...both Iran and Russia were interesting. Türkiye also want(ed) to replace Saudi Arabia as "center of Islam"...US support for the Kurds was yet another blow for Türkiyes trust in the west...

-Some claim the EU has not its own foreign policy...some member states may still have national interests. In the Ukraine-war the EU is following US blindly...but EU interests and US interests are not the same. The EU may move towards political crises even faster then the US...

-WAR

-In Ukraine Russia keeps destroying Ukraine forces...taking land comes after destruction of the Ukraine Army...Expectations are in august-coming month-Russia will be able to take over most of Eastern Ukraine. NATO is providing weapons and intel to Ukraine...Poland may be willing to move even further...

Logistics, supplies, transport is a very major problem for Ukraine...western support is not enough for Ukraine to continue this war...Russia went for "industrial mobilization" and may be preparing for a major offensive. At the same time Russia is preparing military for a conflict in East Asia...a two-front war...

-Containment once was excused as "stopping communism"...now it is the west/US strategy to stop China economicly. From Finland, Sweden supposed to join NATO, Ukraine, Syria, Kashmir to the South China Sea, Taiwan, Kuril Islands China-and Russia- is surrounded by conflicts...Russia-Iran-China "need to break US dominance"...

-DJ I do NOT expect China (PRC) to invade Taiwan. China and Russia may be able to control the air and sea around Taiwan...make demands. A military step could be taking some islands around Taiwan...

Further escalation may be the US/UK others trying to break that blockade... Taiwan going for counterattacks on islands...

Some of the islands near Taiwan are under Japan rule-but claimed by Taiwan/China...It is quite unlikely Japan can stay out of "a fight" but it may try to limit the conflict...

The US selling more weapons to Japan, Taiwan and South Korea could "push" North Korea to "a harder stand"...

A next step may be naval battles between the Russian-China navies and the "western ones"...There may be some aircraft carriers involved but I think the importance of carriers is limited...both China and Russia can sink US carriers with (hypersonic) missiles...If need be in the early stages of the conflict...Trying to send another warning...

In such an escalation-scenario Iran may limit oil-supplies to "the west" (including Japan etc.). 

The darkest scenario's would see war in (Eastern) Europe, Middle East, with very likely also conflict in the America's...

-Nuclear weapons;

Tactical-battlefield, Strategic-long distance...One could claim the US nuclear attacks on Japan were both tactical-force a Japan surrender august 1945 and strategic...send a warning to the Soviet Union/stalin...

IF NATO forces would join Ukraine-attack (pro) Russian forces tactical use of nuclear weapons-destroying armies-may result in the use of strategic nuclear weapons..destroying cities, (air)ports...

Russia and China are further in hyper sonic missiles (speed 6.000 to 20.000 km/h0 and also may have better air/civil defence...Still the nuclear scenario will be Mutual Assured Destruction...MAD !

A major difference with "the last world war" is now most targets can be hit...it is a choice if you want to go for that target...and can deal with the consequences. Blowing up a US Navy ship has other consequences then blowing up a NL Navy ship...Still there will be a reaction...

In the global war of 1939-45 "killing carriers" did win the battle...

What not did change however is the logistics part...getting supplies to where they are needed-or stopping that...Only the means to stop "lines of communication" has changed. 

Internet & information are already part of "a global war"...Maybe there are THREE parties; pro "west", pro"East" and "neutral"...DJ NL has a long history of trying to stay out of a conflict-putting national interests first. Lots of countries want to "limit damage" and see an end to war as soon as possible...

The fight for global power between Cina/Asia and the US/west NOT resulting in military conflict however may be limited...If "the west" can stop China from becoming #1...what about India becoming #1 ? Or a reformed EU no longer following US orders?

Diplomacy should provide a way out...but diplomacy only can work on "trust and verify" ...the trust is gone...at least for now... 



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 31 2022 at 2:33am

DJ- The Ukraine and Taiwan crisis should be seen-in my opinion-also in a longer term historic perspective. 

[url]http://thesaker.is/today-asia-feels-it-can-regain-its-civilizational-weight-lost-for-500-years-lebanese-academic/[/url] or http://thesaker.is/today-asia-feels-it-can-regain-its-civilizational-weight-lost-for-500-years-lebanese-academic/ ;

All Asian powers in general feel that the world is going through a very important period of development, and the international system is going through a moment of transformation. This transformation is occurring in favor of the Asian powers in general, i.e., China first and foremost, and the main Asian states such as Russia, India, Iran and Turkey. These forces feel that they are witnessing a historical turning point in which they are regaining their civilizational weight and influence on the world which had been lost during the past 500 years.

These (Asian) states are still witnessing disparities, rivalries, and disagreements among them, the frameworks of cooperation between them are still developing and have not yet been crystalized, and part of these main (Asian) forces still have partnerships with the West and we know that. However, all of these states share a feeling that this world is becoming more pluralistic and balanced, and that they are facing a very great historical moment that they can seize to take away from the West a part of its domination and hegemony over them, whose (consequences) were at expense of them and their people.

Therefore, these forces are creating this form of partnership to try to seize this historical moment. This economic, demographic and political transition from West to East is considered by these states a historical opportunity that must be grasped. All of that was evident in the recent war with Ukraine. (For example,) India, despite its close relations with the United States, did not go into conflict with Russia as requested (by the US). Turkey kept its options open, even on the Ukrainian issue. Why? Because these states, as I told you, see that the Asian powers, that Asia, is back at the heart of the international system.

The marginalization of Asia was at the expense of the powers (in this continent) and its people. Therefore, this course is not new, and (its players) have taken advantage of the crisis of the West, the decline of American hegemony, and the rise of Asian powers; and this is still ongoing. As for speed of this path, its transformations may occur faster or may slow down depending on certain events. For example, we are waiting for the results of the war in Ukraine. We are waiting for the prospect of the US-Chinese confrontation, which I believe is the most important event from now until the year 2050. The next 20 or 30 years will determine the fate of the world through a confrontation that will escalate quickly between America and China. This competition and conflict and its consequences will shape the world for decades and centuries to come.

DJ, Wars as aspects of a historic process...a shift from "West" to "East" , last phase of de-colonization...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ Asia has a population of 4,6 billion...out of a global population of 7,9 billion...Africa population 1,3 billion...Europe 750 million, Latin America in these statistics go for just over 650 million...

North America 370 million, Oceania 42 million...are the last two regions in population. For that matter India  1,4 billion and China 1,45 billion going for a more fair share in this world only makes sense...Population-wise the US 335 million already is #3...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/eu-population-declines-second-straight-year[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/eu-population-declines-second-straight-year and only because the EU-close to 450 million people-is not seen as one country...

On "Taiwan" [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formosa_(disambiguation)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formosa_(disambiguation) ;

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Formosa[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Formosa

Spanish Formosa (SpanishHermosa Española) was a small colony of the Spanish Empire established in the northern tip of the island known to Europeans at the time as Formosa (now Taiwan) from 1626 to 1642. It was ceded to the Dutch Republic during the Eighty Years' War.

The Portuguese were the first Europeans to reach the island off the southern coast of China in 1544, and named it Formosa (Portuguese for "beautiful") due to the beautiful landscape as seen from the sea.[1]

Northern Taiwan became a Spanish colony in 1626 and part of the Manila-based Spanish East Indies. As a Spanish colony, it was meant to protect the regional trade with the Philippines from interference by the Dutch base in the south of the island. The colony was short-lived due to the loss of its strategic importance and unwillingness by Spanish authorities in Manila to commit more resources to its defence. After seventeen years, the last fortress of the Spanish was besieged by Dutch forces and eventually fell, giving the Dutch control over much of the island.

Spanish missionaries Christianized about 5,000 Taiwanese during the time of the Spanish governorate.[2]

was followed by [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Formosa[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Formosa ;

The island of Taiwan, also commonly known as Formosa, was partly under colonial rule by the Dutch Republic from 1624 to 1662 and from 1664 to 1668. In the context of the Age of Discovery, the Dutch East India Company established its presence on Formosa to trade with the Ming Empire in neighbouring China and Tokugawa shogunate in Japan, and also to interdict Portuguese and Spanish trade and colonial activities in East Asia.

The Dutch were not universally welcomed, and uprisings by both aborigines and recent Han arrivals were quelled by the Dutch military on more than one occasion. With the rise of the Qing dynasty in the early 17th century, the Dutch East India Company cut ties with the Ming dynasty and allied with the Qing instead, in exchange for the right to unfettered access to their trade and shipping routes. The colonial period was brought to an end after the 1662 Siege of Fort Zeelandia by Koxinga's army who promptly dismantled the Dutch colony, expelled the Dutch and established the Ming loyalist, anti-Qing Kingdom of Tungning.

-

As late comers in sailing the seas of the world, the Netherlands and England came, at the beginning of the 17th century, inevitably in conflict with the forces of Spain and Portugal. In ideological terms, the conflict was expressed in the Iberian powers being Catholic, while during the commercial development of England and the Netherlands, both had separated their religious institutions from Papal Rome.

The Dutch first attempted to trade with China in 1601[1] but were rebuffed by the Chinese authorities, who were already engaged in trade with the Portuguese at Macau from 1535.

In a 1604 expedition from Batavia (the central base of the Dutch in Asia), Admiral Wybrand van Warwijk set out to attack Macau, but his force was waylaid by a typhoon, driving them to the Pescadores (Penghu), a group of islands 30 miles (50 km) west of Formosa (Taiwan). Once there, the admiral attempted to negotiate trade terms with the Chinese on the mainland, but was asked to pay an exorbitant fee for the privilege of an interview. Surrounded by a vastly superior Chinese fleet, he left without achieving any of his aims.[2][3]

The Dutch East India Company tried to use military force to make China open up a port in Fujian to trade and demanded that China expel the Portuguese, whom the Dutch were fighting in the Dutch–Portuguese War, from Macau. The Dutch raided Chinese shipping after 1618 and took junks hostage in an unsuccessful attempt to get China to meet their demands.[4][5][6]

In 1622, after another unsuccessful Dutch attack on Macau (trade post of Portugal from 1557) and the failure to set up a trading post in Fat Tong O (present day Hong Kong), the fleet sailed to the Pescadores, this time intentionally, and proceeded to set up a base there at Makung. They built a fort with forced labour recruited from the local Chinese population. Their oversight was reportedly so severe and rations so short that 1,300 of the 1,500 Chinese enslaved died in the process of construction.[7] The same year a ship named the Golden Lion (Dutch: Gouden Leeuw) was wrecked at Lamey just off the southwest coast of Formosa; the survivors were slaughtered by the native inhabitants.[8] The following year, 1623, Dutch traders in search of an Asian base first arrived on the island, intending to use the island as a station for Dutch commerce with Japan and the coastal areas of China.

After the Dutch [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Taiwan#Kingdom_of_Tungning[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Taiwan#Kingdom_of_TungningOn the mainland, Manchu forces broke through Shanhai Pass in 1644 and rapidly overwhelmed the Ming dynasty. In 1661, a naval fleet led by the Ming loyalist Koxinga arrived in Taiwan to oust the Dutch from Zeelandia and establish a pro-Ming base in Taiwan.[45] Koxinga was born to Zheng Zhilong, a Chinese merchant and pirate, and Tagawa Matsu, a Japanese woman, in 1624 in HiradoNagasaki Prefecture, Japan. He was raised there until seven and moved to Quanzhou, in the Fujian province of China. In a family made wealthy from shipping and piracy, Koxinga inherited his father's trade networks, which stretched from Nagasaki to Macao. Following the Manchu advance on Fujian, Koxinga retreated from his stronghold in Amoy (Xiamen city) and besieged Taiwan in the hope of establishing a strategic base to marshal his troops to retake his base at Amoy. In 1662, following a nine-month siege, Koxinga captured the Dutch fortress Zeelandia and Taiwan became his base (see Kingdom of Tungning)

wich lasted till 1895 (to keep it short...) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Formosa[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Formosa

In 1894, China and Japan went to war. In a few months, the Japanese defeated China's Beiyang fleet, routed the Chinese armies in Manchuria, and captured Port Arthur and Weihaiwei. Although nearly all the fighting took place in northern China, Japan had important territorial ambitions in southern China. As the war approached its end, the Japanese took steps to ensure that Taiwan would be ceded to Japan under the eventual peace treaty and that they were well placed militarily to occupy the island. In March 1895 peace negotiations between Japan and China opened in the Japanese city of Shimonoseki. Although hostilities in northern China were suspended during these negotiations, Taiwan and the Pescadores were specifically excluded from the scope of the armistice. This exclusion allowed the Japanese to mount a military operation against the Pescadores Islands in March 1895 without imperilling the negotiations. The Pescadores, lying midway between mainland China and Taiwan, were the key to a successful occupation of Taiwan. In a swift campaign in the last week of March the Japanese captured the islands, preventing further Chinese reinforcements from being sent across the Taiwan Strait to Taiwan. This brisk fait accompli influenced the peace negotiations, and the ensuing Treaty of Shimonoseki, concluded on 17 April 1895, duly provided for the cession by China of Taiwan to Japan. On 10 May, Admiral Kabayama Sukenori was appointed the first Japanese governor-general of Taiwan.[5]

Proclamation of the Republic[edit]

When the news of the treaty's contents reached Taiwan, a number of notables from central Taiwan led by Qiu Fengjia decided to resist the transfer of Taiwan to Japanese rule. On 23 May, in Taipei, these men declared independence, proclaiming the establishment of a free and democratic Republic of Formosa. Tang Jingsong, the Qing governor-general of Taiwan, was prevailed upon to become the republic's first President, and his old friend Liu Yongfu, the retired Black Flag Army commander who had become a national hero in China for his victories against the French in northern Vietnam a decade earlier, was invited to serve as Grand General of the Army. Chiu was appointed Grand Commander of Militia, with the power to raise local militia units throughout the island to resist the Japanese. On the Chinese mainland Zhang Zhidong, the powerful governor-general of Liangkiang, tacitly supported the Formosan resistance movement, and the Republicans also appointed Chen Jitong, a disgraced Chinese diplomat who understood European ways of thinking, as the Republic's foreign minister. His job would be to sell the Republic abroad.[5]

Maybe [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ezo[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ezo of 1869 could be seen as related...A Japan power struggle...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_under_Japanese_rule[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_under_Japanese_rule Formosa/Taiwan was under Japanese rule from 1895 till 1945...Japan a major colonizer in Northern China, Korea...

The China civil war ended in 1949 with the Chinese Communist Party/Mao in control of "mainland" China and (western backed) "nationalists" ruling Taiwan...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uj-iOq14Wl0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uj-iOq14Wl0 Alexander Mercouris -and many others- finding it hard to understand the US choice for creating yet another conflict..."The One-China policy" started under Nixon...Peking/Bejing represented China...most countries would "limit" contacts and trade with Taiwan...seen as part of China (also by Taiwan itself...). 

DJ-Again...if the US would be able to "slow down" China from getting #1 global power, the result could be India becoming #1....Even the EU-Europe-could become a larger player then the US....

The US can NOT stop "global changes" by war any longer...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 31 2022 at 4:43am

DJ;

From [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/report-china-sanctions-nancy-pelosi-refused-entry-into-china-and-taiwan[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/report-china-sanctions-nancy-pelosi-refused-entry-into-china-and-taiwan ;

Reports are coming in from Asia as of 4:09 AM eastern US Time, claiming that the People's Republic of China has "Sanctioned" U.S. Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.   The reports also claim that as a result of being Sanctioned, Pelosi is DENIED ENTRY into China and into Taiwan.

These reports are coming from media persons on the ground inside Asia, but their media outlets have yet to report these claims.

Pelosi departed the United States on Saturday, allegedly aboard a U.S. Air Force C-40 transport aircraft, which allegedly7 had TWO fighter jets as escort.

The plane was tracked across the continental U.S., out into the Pacific, and then landed in Hawaii to refuel.

Pelosi's office tweeted a statement from her:



Later that same aircraft took off from Hawaii, but tracking of it was then BLOCKED, claiming the plane was no longer being tracked because of engine trouble . . . which is a complete non-sequitur; it made no sense at all.

 As of 4:09 AM EDT Sunday, it is not known where Speaker Pelosi's plane is, or if has perhaps landed elsewhere in Asia, as her itinerary did mention stops in Singapore, Malaysia and elsewhere for this trip.

Why the US Speaker of the House is engaging in foreign travel is also a mystery.  Generally, tthat's why the U.S. has a Secretary of State.

More details as they become available.

DJ, Indeed this East-Asia trip is giving a lot of questions....In part more US weaponsales to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will be part of the trip....

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uj-iOq14Wl0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uj-iOq14Wl0 Alexander Mercouris mentioned Ukraine moving into hyperinflation and a foodcrisis with 1-in-3 Ukraine citizens not getting enough food....Military Summary mentioned Ukraine may force the over 260,000 population of Ukraine-controlled Donbas to move to the west of Ukraine in a major evacuation...Housing is a major problem in West Ukraine....most of the evacuees will be without income....

[url]https://china.liveuamap.com/[/url] or https://china.liveuamap.com/ has little extra info....

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/taiwan-china-2022.16244/page-14[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/taiwan-china-2022.16244/page-14 also of "limited use"....

DJ The Korea conflict could get out of control while the Taiwan-conflict may stay limited (Pelosi meeting Taiwan-delegation outside Taiwan...). 

Europe [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-07-29/europes-two-front-war-russia-climate-change[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-07-29/europes-two-front-war-russia-climate-change ...

DJ [url]https://www.ipkw.nl/[/url] or https://www.ipkw.nl/ Europe has been moving away from both nuclear and fossil energy for years...it did not start with the Ukraine-crisis...Most of Europe is connected for electricity and oil/gas...pipelines that may be used for hydrogen gas...Most houses by now have solar panels...

The move away from both Russian and Arab/Iran oil -with fossil energy getting more expensive- in my opinion may not be enough in the short term...we may face "problems"...but on the longer term a lot of European energy needs can be "Made in the EU"...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 31 2022 at 10:29pm

DJ, 


My impression/opinion;

-Taiwan visit of n.pelosi. [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/report-china-sanctions-nancy-pelosi-refused-entry-into-china-and-taiwan[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/report-china-sanctions-nancy-pelosi-refused-entry-into-china-and-taiwan pelosi went from Hawaii towards "Asia" -plane ( US Air Force C-40 transport + 2 fighter escorts) returned to Hawaii "engine problems"...then later on the plane flew to Guam...(DJ-Not certain pelosi was on that plane...). Pelosi staff now claiming "Taiwan visit not on agenda"...

DJ-pelosi was planning to visit Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia...maybe Malaysia told pelosi to stay away if she also wanted to visit Taiwan...A lot of East Asia countries do NOT welcome increase of tensions and US weapons...They want to stay out of US conflicts with other countries...

My impression is the US "may slowly start realizing" "the amount of damage" the US does to itself....At present the US major enemy is the US itself...

Without the US there would be no NATO....certainly not a "global NATO" seen in most non-western countries as neo-colonial...NOT in their interest....more a risk. 

Again-if you stop China from becoming global economy #1...India is next....The US has lost its dominance and can not get that back by more wars...DJ-I think a main reason is the US created to many wars since the end of the Soviet Union...overstretching not only its military but also its finances and economy...Outsourcing production to Asia was a US choice in the 90's - the present situation-with China, India preparing to become larger economies then the US is an outcome...

-The EU 

Presumably, those are the nations that will be especially “chilling out” this coming winter, in order to continue America’s political domination over Europe.


DJ, NL has been a major gas-exporter...from that perspective NL has been an EU exception...The sanctions war is hurting NL since we have major seaports (Amsterdam, Rotterdam etc.), major off-shore (in part now building wind turbines to be put at sea). 

Eric Zuesse has written better pieces; The EU still has lots of gas, oil becoming exploitable (some of it even in short term) with much higher energy prices. "Green" energy (=more then wind and solar ! Also related to storing that kind of energy for use later.) may become cheaper then "old fossil fuels". Nuclear energy also is a factor. (However uranium has to be imported...).

Another point is "EU leaders" based their decissions on the sanction-war on US/UK intel...again turning out to be very wrong...In my opinion the EU is "repositioning itself" -may distance itself from NATO and the US...For that matter Brexit is making things easier...Germany, France, Italy may seek "a new basis" for "cooperation with Asia"...

But, as a result of turning off Russia’s energy-spigots in Europe, the EU itself might become destroyed, and a mere has-been economically, culturally, industrially, and otherwise, just so that Europe will remain as being vassal-nations to America (its “dispensable” nations, like all the rest are), instead of to become what it always should have been, and naturally would have been - the radiant glory of the world’s largest continent: Eurasia, a Europe that includes Russia, instead of that endangers Russia.

The glory of Europe is done for, finished as what it was, and the only real question now is how fast? Oh - and WHY? Why did Europe’s leaders do this? That will be the real EU-killer question.

The Europe that was, is gone - killed by the regime in Washington DC, using its many hired agents in Europe, and their hired guns in NATO.

DJ...YES-Maybe the EU was also a US idea...but most of the "EU-idea" came from Europe itself ! France and Germany had THREE wars within a hundred years...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Prussian_War[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Prussian_War 1870-71 followed by 1914-18 and 1939-45...The [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benelux#History[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benelux#History may have been one of the first EU cooperation projects...1944 BElgium-NEtherlands-LUXemburg started working together...(Of course the BeNeLux was NL from 1815 till 1830...Luxemburg under NL rule till 1880/1890). 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EuroAs of 2013, the euro is the second-largest reserve currency as well as the second-most traded currency in the world after the United States dollar.[14][15][16][17] As of December 2019, with more than €1.3 trillion in circulation, the euro has one of the highest combined values of banknotes and coins in circulation in the world

DJ Both in Africa and Latin America countries would like to "copy" the EU idea....I think the EU needs reforms...most countries need a better functioning democracy...but the UK may be the only country leaving the EU...

Maybe the "strength is in its weakness"...there is NO European Army willing to invade other countries...Other countries may disagree with some EU members-disagree with others-still do bussiness either in Euro, their own currency or otherwise...The EU has much more flexibility then the US...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-how-comfortable-are-you-us-dollar[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-how-comfortable-are-you-us-dollar The US$ was used as a weapon...you simply can not do so with the Euro...If Ukraine would be allowed to switch to the Euro-to limit hyperinflation-the basis then has to be a form of peace...

My impression is that US foreign policy will widen the gap with Europe...Spending extra billions on the military with high inflation may not bring extra military...inflation will undo the extra spending...

DJ-My impression/opinion; The US may start realizing it is getting very isolated by its foreign policy...No other country wants more wars....The US may be sidelined in global affairs...Europe, Oceania need trade with Asia...Latin America does not need Spanish/Portugal colonization being replaced by US neo-colonialism...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 01 2022 at 10:55am

Server error....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-sink-pelosi-taiwan-headlines[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-sink-pelosi-taiwan-headlines

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will arrive at Songshan Airport Tuesday evening at 10:30pm local time.

At the same time The Wall Street Journal is reporting Monday that "she's definitely coming" - based on an unnamed source in contact with top Taiwan officials

People whom Mrs. Pelosi is planning to meet with in Taiwan have been informed of her imminent arrival, this person said, though some details remain in flux. Some of Ms. Pelosi’s meetings have been scheduled for Tuesday evening, but most are set for Wednesday, the person said, adding that they include, but aren’t limited to, Taiwanese government officials. "She’s definitely coming," the person said. "The only variable is whether she spends the night in Taipei."


DJ [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/on-the-woke-flight-to-taiwan.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/on-the-woke-flight-to-taiwan.html ;

Pelosi's trip is a stupid thing to do but she is a politician and stupid things are what they generally do.

Michael D. Swaine @Dalzell60 - 12:26 UTC · Aug 1, 2022

I have been told that Pelosi has said she will only not go 2 TW if Biden publicly discourages her n she can blame him. Anyone else heard this? Sounds like Pelosi. Why can’t they both confer n conclude it’s not a good idea? Why the blame game, if true?
Pelosi expected to visit Taiwan, Taiwanese and US officials say

I can think of several reasons why Pelosi will not arrive in Taiwan. Here flight might, for example, get diverted. But it is also possible that it happens but is followed by huge consequences, likely to the disadvantage of the U.S. and Taiwan.

There is also this thought, by Cynthia Chung, which might become relevant:

In October 2019, Jake Sullivan, who became U.S. National Security Advisor in 2021, stated in an interview that the U.S. needed a clear threat to rally the world and play the role of saviour of mankind and that China could be that organizing principle for U.S. foreign policy. In the 2019 interview, he acknowledges that the problem was that people were not going to believe that China is a global threat, that their view of China is too positive and that the United States would need a “Pearl Harbour moment,” a real focusing event to change their minds, something he calmly stated that “would scare the hell out of the American people.”

She correctly traces such 'Pearl Harbour moment' thinking back to neo-conservative movement. Chung closes with this:

Thus, when Jake Sullivan observes that there is not enough anti-China sentiment to bolster an image of the United States as a “saviour of mankind” against China and that America is in need of a “Pearl Harbour moment” I would be very wary.

The circus around Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in the coming days, and evident glee that is coming forth from many of these neocons frothing at the mouth over this prospect is a clear sign that something incredibly reckless and stupid is about to happen.

Pelosi’s airplane might indeed be shot down on her completely irrelevant and unnecessary trip to Taiwan, and if it is, don’t be surprised if it was the Americans themselves who are behind it, who have shown they are willing to do anything for that “Pearl Harbour moment.”

I for one surely hope that the above does not happen.


and [url]https://southfront.org/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-ww-iii-u-s-v-china/[/url] or https://southfront.org/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-ww-iii-u-s-v-china/ ; The U.S. side (now replacing the Japanese side as the post-WW-II, fascist, overlords of Taiwan) had lost the civil war in China, but, ever since, the U.S. Government has been protecting the losing side in China’s civil war, who holed-up in what is actually China’s province of Formosa or Taiwan. If and when China finally takes back control of it, the place-name might revert to “Formosa,” or to “the Province of Formosa,” so as to signify that China, not Japan, won WW II. None of this fascism in post-WW-II Asia would have occurred, at all, if FDR instead of Truman had been America’s President after WW II. Truman was a fascist-imperialist, but FDR was intensely AGAINST both fascism and imperialism. Anti-communism was merely the excuse that the post-WW-II fascist imperialists gave, for their fascist imperialism (America’s coups, invasions, subversions, etc., to conquer the world), so as to fool their publics into believing they live in a ‘democracy’.

From [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/roc-ccp-discussions.16244/page-12[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/roc-ccp-discussions.16244/page-12 a.o. claims China now preparing three ferries for military use-Those ferries were transporting tanks in 2021...

Also Russia, Iran did make clear they support China in this conflict. 

The stakes went far to high...both China and the US positioned themselves into this crisis that may bring yet another war...North of Taiwan is Korea...with potential another conflict brewing...Japan can not stay out-may face Russia...

We should NOT be in this position...the world will blame biden for this...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
ksc View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: February 09 2020
Status: Offline
Points: 7605
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 01 2022 at 12:11pm

  

Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 01 2022 at 12:37pm

ksc-I did not yet see the video....but "we may agree on both Russia and China" have "had it" with the US/biden....

Trying to keep informed on "the region"...

South Korea; [url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220801004351315?section=national/politics[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220801004351315?section=national/politics ;

SEOUL, Aug. 1 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk-yeol has decided not to travel to provincial regions for this week's vacation and will instead remain in Seoul to mull how to navigate through the current political turmoil, officials at the ruling party and the presidential office said Monday.

The decision came as Yoon's approval ratings have been unusually low -- below 30 percent in some surveys -- for a president less than three months in office, as the economic situation worsens and leadership turmoil deepens at the ruling People Power Party.

DJ-My opinion-it is hard not to link North Korean actions with China policies...as if China (PRC) claims to stick to diplomacy-NK has to do the "bad cop" act ...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_cop/bad_cop[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_cop/bad_cop 

[url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220801009651325?section=nk/nk[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220801009651325?section=nk/nk

SEOUL, Aug. 1 (Yonhap) -- Unification Minister Kwon Young-se said Monday that South Korea needs to make clear a principle of accepting "all" North Korean defectors, amid a renewed controversy over the forced repatriation of two North Korean fishermen in 2019.

A political dispute has continued over the preceding Moon Jae-in administration's decision to send back the fishermen to the North, where there were feared to face harsh punishments, though the duo were allegedly mired in a murder case.

"First off, I am thinking of making that clear myself," Kwon said. "If needed, I will recommend that President Yoon (Suk-yeol) have the opportunity to be clear on such a principle."

DJ, North Korea can make an issue of lots of things....[url]http://www.kcna.kp/en[/url] or http://www.kcna.kp/en ...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/north-korea-preparing-1st-nuclear-test-5-years-blinken-informs-un[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/north-korea-preparing-1st-nuclear-test-5-years-blinken-informs-unAs if the region needed to grow hotter at this moment of all eyes being on Nancy Pelosi's Asia trip and potential landing in Taiwan, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced Monday that North Korea is preparing to conduct its seventh nuclear test.

China [url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1271966.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1271966.shtml ;

In celebration of the 95th anniversary of the founding of the PLA, the PLA Eastern Theater Command on Monday released a video on social media, along with the message "We are fully prepared for any eventuality. Fight upon order, bury every intruder, move toward joint and successful operation!" The video has become one of the hottest topics on Sina Weibo, China's Twitter-like social media platform. The hashtag on the topic has received at least 42.5 million views, with many netizens seeing it as a clear warning to Pelosi, who could make a surprise and provocative trip to China's Taiwan island.

DJ...Republic Of China=Taiwan...PRC=Peoples Republic of China-Bejing...[url]https://defconwarningsystem.com/[/url] or https://defconwarningsystem.com/ ;

Already 4,36 AM august 2 in Korea...15.36 PM in DC...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/getting-reports-that-pelosi-will-land-in-taiwan-this-week[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/getting-reports-that-pelosi-will-land-in-taiwan-this-week also will be updated if there is more news...



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 01 2022 at 11:14pm

DJ, 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdeBTmhroM8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdeBTmhroM8 Alexander Mercouris; As Russia Advances in Donbass Crisis Heats up in Kosovo; EU/UK in 'Major Retreat' on Anti-Russian Oil Sanctions News Topic 569

It is getting quite impossible to catch all the news/developments...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bulletin-white-house-says-speaker-pelosi-has-the-right-to-visit-taiwan[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bulletin-white-house-says-speaker-pelosi-has-the-right-to-visit-taiwan ...

DJ-What I get is pelosi visited Malaysia, Singapore-now may visit Taiwan - in a US Air Force plane, escorted by US fighters (???)-even stay there one night. Point is pelosi (82) is the #3 in US power structure after biden and harris...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-sink-pelosi-taiwan-headlines[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-sink-pelosi-taiwan-headlines ;

Below is an excerpt from an insightful post titled Red Clouds of War Looming Over Taiwan by a Westerner who is a Taiwan-based researcher...

Scenario 1: The minimalist approach. The PLA occupies Jinmen or Matsu islands, as well as Taiwan’s islands in the South China Sea, and maybe even the Penghu Islands. They also declare part or all of the Taiwan Strait a “no go” zone to foreign military shipping. This would probably be fairly easy for the PLA, and Taiwan would probably not want to overcommit to naval action against the huge PLA Navy (PLAN) if it didn’t directly approach the main island.

Scenario 2: Hybrid warfare. Some sort of partial naval and aerial blockade of Taiwan intended to interfere with the economy, combined with stepped-up harassment, such as direct flyovers of Taiwan’s territory by PLA Air Force (PLAAF) jets, or incursions into Taiwan’s maritime space by China’s naval militia, protected by PLAN warships. This might also be accompanied by cyberattacks designed to shut down the internet and other infrastructure for days at a time. Taiwan would have no choice to assert a stiff defensive posture, resulting in real engagements between Taiwanese and Chinese forces, posing a serious risk of escalation.

Scenario 3: A serious attack but no invasion. This would involve air and sea warfare only, no boots on the ground. A full aerial and naval blockade, a protracted set of naval and aerial battles designed to degrade Taiwan’s military, combined with ballistic missile attacks on military targets. Aggressive cyberattacks turning off the internet and shutting down critical infrastructure for days or weeks. Once air and naval superiority were established, China could pick off targets at will, ratcheting up the threat until the government breaks.

Scenario 4The Full Monty – a proper invasion. Total air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattacks to paralyze virtually all military, governmental, and civilian communication and shut down critical infrastructure. Aggressive naval and aerial engagements to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlespace superiority, followed by sustained aerial assaults by fighters and bombers on military targets. A decapitation strike at Taipei by special forces units to try to seize key leadership personnel. Well-coordinated insider treason and sabotage actions by gangsters, planted CCP agents, and other groups sympathetic to China – the so-called “5th column”. An amphibious assault with close air support from fighters, helicopters, and battle drones at one or more locations in Taiwan, and very possibly a move to seize a major port, such as Keelung, Taipei Port, Taichung, or Kaohsiung. Then hundreds of thousands of troops would start rolling in until the island was occupied. That would be the plan, anyway. PLA success in such an endeavor is very unclear. But they could do a hell of a lot of damage trying. And yes, they might actually succeed, at least partially, such as in seizing and holding the region around Taipei.

Scenario 5: Worst Case (short of nuclear) scenario. Full air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattack, aggressive naval and aerial attacks to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlefield superiority, followed by aerial assaults by fighters and bomber on military targets and area bombing of civilian targets. There are massive casualties, and Taiwan is crushed by brute force, surrenders, and then the occupiers enter the country and take it over.

The full analysis can be read here.

DJ China is allied with Russia, Iran, Syria, Venezuela etc. The basic problem is with the US-its allies South Korea, Japan, Australia...I think you have to "think big"...

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-6[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-6 has some info on build up...B52's over Taiwan, missile testing by China...US claimed North Korea would do another nuclear test...

Last week a Japanese (former) military delegation visited Taiwan, UK MP's may visit Taiwan...

The bigger picture however is the "East-West-confrontation"...

[url]https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/07/29/686439/New-batch-US-troops-enter-Yemen-energy-rich-Mahra-province[/url] or https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/07/29/686439/New-batch-US-troops-enter-Yemen-energy-rich-Mahra-province US forces landed in Yemen...[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/idf-us-navies-launch-joint-red-sea-exercise/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/idf-us-navies-launch-joint-red-sea-exercise/ US/Israel navy drills in the Red Sea...

[url]http://thesaker.is/going-to-samarkand/[/url] or http://thesaker.is/going-to-samarkand/ DJ-Western economy is the weak spot...China-and its allies-will "go for the weak spot"...

There may be some military action...I expect Taiwan will pay a very high price-but slowly-via sea/air blockade by both Chian and Russia. We may see "problems" in Korea...more "RIC" Russia-Iran-China naval activities in international waters...

But I think both Ukraine western escalations and biden-made Taiwan crisis call for other actions;

-Energy blockade of "the west"...both Europe and North America could face "hard times"

-Dumping all kinds of western bonds, currencies, while energy prices for that west go sky-high...pushing the "west" towards hyperinflation...

-Cyber and disinformation warfare (DJ-If you think we are in a "war-of-words" it can get much worse...). Goal to further undermine political leadership...

-Increase "south-south"trade. "Friends" of RIC Russia-Iran-China can get energy, food etc. 

DJ, In this global conflict the position of India may be "major". India has long term good relations with Russia however almost at war with both China and Pakistan-still close to China. Since more then 60% of the global population lives in EurAsia India's economic future is in EurAsia...(India shops opening up/taking over western ones in Russia. Oil-for-Rupees-deals). 

The debt-based western economies, with an aging population, may not be that interesting for India...Most of "the west" wants to by energy sell consumer goods-just like India...(or China). 

The sanctions-wars against Iran, Russia etc. did do already a lot of damage for most of the west..."We" are already in a weak position...China will use that...

-In Europe Hungary, Serbia are already "pro-East"...Serbia may "go" for Kosovo, Montenegro...with Russian help. China did send in military hardware by plane into Serbia recently...

-Türkiye still second largest NATO member also "going East" for energy, tourism, trade

-Italy, France soon may face new governments that "change position" in this conflict

-Germany, UK, NL facing major political, social, economic crises...

"We live in interesting times"..."Make trade not war" may be the China way to deal with conflicts...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2022 at 6:30am


CNN Livestream on pelosi arriving in Taiwan....[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfaAfJ-zj9M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfaAfJ-zj9M 

pelosi should have arrived by now in Taiwan-IF she would go there...What I (DJ) make of it she can decide NOT to go...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/here-are-all-latest-taiwan-headlines[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/here-are-all-latest-taiwan-headlines 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-warns-usa-will-not-accept-any-excuse-for-pelosi-landing-in-taiwan[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-warns-usa-will-not-accept-any-excuse-for-pelosi-landing-in-taiwan 

DJ-Russia is taking "100%" the side of China...[url]https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/08/01/686636/UN-Secretary-General-Antonio-Guterres-NPT-Conference[/url] or https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/08/01/686636/UN-Secretary-General-Antonio-Guterres-NPT-Conference 

DJ-What I make of it; China will see pelosi in Taiwan as a US decleration of war...supporting Taiwan breaking away from China. Most likely Russia, Iran, North Korea, Syria (and Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba ?) may take the side of China in this Taiwan-conflict...on top of the Ukraine conflict...

Since there are lots of other conflicts, Iran, Serbia, Baltics, Korea...a China-US confrontation over Taiwan could push the world into global war...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2022 at 8:14am

Pelosi arrived in Taiwan...reports of air combat...US planes from Okinawa in Taiwan airspace/Taiwan airforce fighting Chinese planes...(???)

[url]https://southfront.org/pelosi-landed-in-taiwan-amid-reports-on-air-fighting/[/url] or https://southfront.org/pelosi-landed-in-taiwan-amid-reports-on-air-fighting/  

On the other hand, dozens of US Air Force fighters took off from military bases in Japan and are also flying towards Taiwan.

According to unconfirmed reports, there was a combat contact between the fighters of the Air Forces of Taiwan and China. It is reported that the Taiwanese plane opened a warning fire.

-

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-10[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-10 (#185)Air Battle footage

(#189) 

Looks more like flares to me, as well as Mainland China too. Very likely false labeling.

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/conflicts[/url] or https://twitter.com/conflicts , [url]https://twitter.com/intelcrab?lang=nl[/url] or https://twitter.com/intelcrab?lang=nl and from China [url]https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews[/url] or https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosis-plane-avoiding-south-china-sea-taiwan-pla-surges-forces-just-across-strait[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosis-plane-avoiding-south-china-sea-taiwan-pla-surges-forces-just-across-strait 

DJ-First CONFIRMED reports of fighting still has to come in....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-happens-next-nobody-knows-it-doesnt-look-good-all[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-happens-next-nobody-knows-it-doesnt-look-good-all 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2022 at 11:35am

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-11[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-11 #207

The United States needs to make a decision about Taiwan.

If Taiwan is part of China, then what difference does it make if China sends its military over? You can't invade your own country.

If Taiwan isn't part of China, then the US needs to start acting like it.

This wishy-washy message the US keeps sending is what is causing all the problem.

[url]https://twitter.com/intelcrab?lang=nl[/url] or https://twitter.com/intelcrab?lang=nl






Nathan Ruser

@Nrg8000
 · 
Beyond Taiwan's territorial waters, China's published maps show that they plan to conduct military operations within Taiwan's Internal Waters (purple -approx line) in two areas. This is as close as you can get without landing on the beaches and is completely unacceptable.

DJ...If Taiwan is (part of ) China then China Navy/Airforce can do "its thing"...Or IF Taiwan is NOT part of China...does the US de facto go for a two- China policy ? (Peoples Republic of) China now going for navy/airforce drills above/around Taiwan...

[url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272071.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272071.shtml ; J-20 stealth fighter jets join PLA drills surrounding Taiwan, reports show

DJ Bejing wants to "speed up reunification proces with Taiwan"....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosis-plane-avoiding-south-china-sea-taiwan-pla-surges-forces-just-across-strait[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosis-plane-avoiding-south-china-sea-taiwan-pla-surges-forces-just-across-strait 

DJ-US Air Force planes (from Okinawa) now in Taiwan...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2022 at 10:09pm

DJ, 

My view on "the present situation"...

-The US is now in a war with China....

-RIC+ Russia-Iran-China, but also Syria, North Korea and others see "the west" as an enemy wanting to break up their countries/regime change

-In Ukraine it is the US locating HIMARS and most likely other high-tech weapons, picking targets...Ukraine only pulling the trigger...

-Germany "green idiots" "support the US stand on Taiwan"...

-When in fact it looks like there is not ONE stand of the US (and the west) on Taiwan/China...

The "One-China policy" started under Nixon early 70's de facto is over...pelosi ignoring Bejing arriving on Taiwan -not stopped by biden- is the US pushing Taiwan away from China...Not only insulting communist party in Bejing but also Chinese nationalists...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kGw73UrwEI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kGw73UrwEI Alexander Mercouris calling the present US government "amateurs"...not able to understand both history and warnings/diplomacy...The outcome is Russia and China now a major alliance..

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noV-OjqssRs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noV-OjqssRs military summary; Taiwan still in control of some islands close to the Chinese mainland. They will be the first target. Second target will be islands close to Taiwan/Formosa...From there China will have artillery/firecontrol over Taiwan coastal area's for further landings/invasion. China in fact has already aircontrol over Taiwan....If Taiwan would challange that China may attack (air)ports. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-j4fhICWMs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-j4fhICWMs Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom /Scott Ritter; US-China relations are over....

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-12[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-12 

DJ a.o. China tanks on the beaches-most likely waiting for transport to Taiwan Islands near the China coast...NO reports of fighting...(western media/propaganda pelosi welcomed as a rockstar...)

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/pelosi-plane-at-18-000-feet-altitude-on-final-approach-to-taipei-taiwant[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/pelosi-plane-at-18-000-feet-altitude-on-final-approach-to-taipei-taiwant ;

UPDATE 5:04 PM EDT --

China's military exercises block the air and sea around Taiwan.   All of it.

China Central Television announced the start of military exercises in three areas around Taiwan. These maneuvers demonstrate the dissatisfaction of the Chinese ruling party with the actions of the United States, in particular with Pelosi's statements on "democracy" in Taiwan.

Until the PLA completes the live-fire exercises,  Pelosi can't LEAVE.   Her plane can't take-off else it may "accidentally" be hit by live fire from the "exercises." 

DJ, Bejing wants to make clear THEY control Taiwan...it is part of China...The hard reality is Taiwan can start a fight knowing it will not win...As Scott Ritter pointed out; there are only very limited US military on Taiwan-no US weapon depots...DJ-ANY Taiwan military action may get a Chinese (over) reaction...(One Taiwan fighter attacking Chinese planes could see a major China missile strike destroying ALL Taiwan air bases...Taiwan does NOT have means to stop that...). 

Further US involvement only underlines the differences between US words "One China" and actions "Taiwan is NOT China-frustrating even Taiwan-Chinese nationalists...). There are claims of a Chinese drone over Okinawa...Russia did say it will offer support to China if requested...Russia has its own conflicts with Japan...(Kuril Islands/Sachalin).

DJ Another point I notice on US-Defcon...Some US reactions expect the US will find much regional support...Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia...In my opinion totally unrealistic ! China is the main economic motor in Asia...if not the world...India may "hate" China-but it needs Asia...

I do expect South Korea will be "pressured more". Not only from North Korea but now also from Russia and China. They may try to push South Korea to a more "neutral position". In return "Korea" will get help in its conflicts with Japan...

On Ukraine [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/himars-destroyed-by-russia[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/himars-destroyed-by-russia

Apparently the Russians arranged to "buy" one of the US HIMARS from corrupt government soldiers/officers in Ukraine. 

We are also told that Russia paid the cash, received it, took it apart, analyzed it, and has now found "multiple ways to track it, jam it, and destroy it."

DJ, Russia "increased missile strikes" against Ukraine troops...Killing over 1000 Ukraine military per day in that way-on the frontlines also high Ukraine losses...The position of zelensky and other NATO-puppets is getting impossible...Ukraine facing a major foodcrisis while exporting grain...A fuel crisis, hyperinflation, housingcrisis and winter now possibly less then 100 days away...

-The total lack of any strategy, basic thinking, both in international relations AND the pandemics by "governments" is shocking...self-destruction high speed. 

Inflation may further explode in most western countries...even when most of the wars (In SE Europe, Kosovo, Armenia, Ukraine. Middle East; Syria/Iraq, and now Taiwan) for now will be "local/regional"...Global logistics may be close to collapse...

Somehow the west believes they can both declare war on Russia, Iran, China and make trade...it does NOT work that way...we soon will find out !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
roni3470 View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: August 30 2006
Location: Colorado
Status: Offline
Points: 4850
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 03 2022 at 7:06am

I don't disagree DJ but also wondering if they are going to do anything more than the "exercises" they are conducting.  Not that those are bad and potentially dangerous but do you all think its going to stop there or will there be further ramifications?


NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
Back to Top
ksc View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: February 09 2020
Status: Offline
Points: 7605
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 03 2022 at 7:37am

The most China can do is make a few videos and shoot off some fireworks. That's why an 82 year old grandmother can fly in, fly out while giving the finger to the failing Chinese "leaders". 

The Biden administration has been wrong to frame U.S.-China competition as a technological competition. This is because, in most areas, there is no technology competition between the two countries. There is only China’s reliance on the U.S.—a far more technologically advanced nation with far more technologically advanced allies and trading partners. And it’s in the U.S. interest to keep it that way and maintain—and even expand—America’s tech advantage.

The lack of technological superiority means China’s economic advancement is subject to other countries supplying it with critical chips and capital equipment. That’s why China has been making efforts to reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers and produce more technology domestically.

Apart from economic reasons, the ability to produce key technology of its own would allow China to further pursue its geopolitical ambitions without restraint, such as its self-declaration of sovereignty over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

In contrast, reducing reliance on foreign technology is not an issue for the U.S. Instead, given many countries’ reliance on U.S. technology, the priority for America is to improve its current technology to always keep other countries lagging behind.  


China’s late start is the main reason for its inferior level of technology. The communist regime didn’t start actively promoting the industry’s development until the 1980s. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the East Asian Tigers—the four highly developed economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan—China had stepped up its efforts by encouraging foreign direct investment in assembling products such as smartphones, laptops, computers, etc., in China.

Despite getting itself inserted into the global production network to make these goods, China did not profit much from being the global assembler and low value-added provider. Instead, China’s export-oriented economic development, based on using and assembling foreign countries’ capital equipment and industrial components, has trapped the nation into technology reliance on foreign countries.

China’s reliance on foreign industrial goods with high technology intensity is evidenced by its growing trade deficit in electrical machinery (including semiconductor chips) from $15 billion in 2001 to $217 billion in 2021, according to data from the Economist Intelligence Unit.

The U.S. was China’s fourth largest import source of electrical machinery in 2021, after Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. This reliance can also be seen in China’s rush to stockpile equipment from the U.S. last year before new U.S. export restrictions took effect.

In addition, the U.S.’s dominant role in the upstream side of the technology production network has enabled it to restrain the sales of high technology goods to China from its midstream partners. A typical example is the U.S. ban on Taiwan’s TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung from exporting semiconductor chips to Chinese technology manufacturer Huawei. The U.S. was able to do so as the two companies use U.S. technology in making their chips.

China’s heavy reliance on foreign technology is also evidenced by the huge amount it pays for the use of intellectual property over the past few years, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce. The U.S. has been China’s largest source of intellectual property.

Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the U.S. exports of intellectual property to China tripled in the last decade, making China the largest buyer of U.S. intellectual property in the Asia-Pacific region. For comparison, U.S. imports of Chinese intellectual property was a mere $3 million in 2020, a fraction of the nearly $8.3 billion of U.S. exports to China.

And the U.S.’s expansion of licensing requirements in 2020 did not discourage China from purchasing licensed technology from America. According to the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security, the number of license applications from China for purchasing “tangible items, software, and technology” increased from 3,747 in 2020 to 5,923 in 2021. The total amounts paid for those applications increased from $106 billion to $545 billion. As a result, the licensing amounts per application went up from $28 million to $92 million. In addition, the average processing time in 2021 was 19 days longer than in 2020. In other words, the U.S. export restrictions have made it more costly and lengthier for Chinese companies to acquire license approvals from the U.S.

In trying to reduce China’s reliance on foreign suppliers and produce more technology domestically, the country’s leadership believes that money can solve anything. Although its research and development expenditures as a percentage of its gross domestic product has been notable over the past year, the government-dominated R&D expenditures, including R&D spent by state-owned enterprises, have not yet resulted in significant technology breakthroughs for China.

Obviously, money is not the only means available. But China’s weak regulatory environment to protect intellectual property and authoritarian way of governance have discouraged innovation in the private sector there.  

China’s attempts to acquire foreign technology by either theft or coercion show it is unsatisfied with its current technological progress. It understands that slower technological advancement means slower economic growth, which might challenge the Chinese Communist Party’s political legitimacy in the future. It also means the suboptimal development of a military directly competing with the U.S. and of an internal surveillance infrastructure indispensable to the Communist Party’s grip on power.

For a latecomer to the high tech world like China, the direct transfer of technology from more advanced countries is the most efficient way to elevate its level of technology. However, due to declining foreign investment in manufacturing and fewer joint ventures there, China nowadays is less able to rely on foreign investors alone to climb the technological ladder. As such, the government has stepped up its intervention to help Chinese companies acquire technology from the U.S.

China’s rapid economic growth over the last few decades has been based on its joining of the global supply chain network, where the U.S. and its allies hold the technology high ground. China’s direct political confrontation with the U.S. has only exposed its weakness in this solid technological hierarchy and its unbreakable dependence on the U.S. That’s something for the U.S. to build upon and leverage to our strategic advantage.

Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 03 2022 at 10:08pm

KSC, thanks for the article on China its need for high-tech import from-a.o.-the US. 

DJ, 

China will need international trade/connections for further growth...Not a single country can grow all on its own-most likely. Even the US, Russia, China need an exchange of idea's, know-how...

The US as fourth source of high-tech after Taiwan, South Korea and Japan may have a "statistical weak point" by excluding the EU...(most likely a bigger source for China high-tech then the US-but not "one country"). 

The US may think of itself as to important in the global affairs...it is a major danger to think of yourself as "the best" without good reflection!

-I think Taiwan may now be in a "hang over" from [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nancy-pelosi-arrives-seoul-south-koreas-president-wont-meet-her[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nancy-pelosi-arrives-seoul-south-koreas-president-wont-meet-her ; there's been widespread speculation in the region that this was intentional (given weeks ago it was being reported she may go to Taiwan), so that Seoul can avoid bringing down China's wrath. Even Foreign Minister Park Jin happens to be out of the country - so there will be no Pelosi meeting with the nation's top diplomat either.

As House Speaker, Pelosi is second in line to the US presidency. Instead of meeting with South Korea's head of state, she'll instead greet National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo and leaders of the ruling conservative People Power Party, along with the opposition Democratic Party of Korea

The Korea Times says officials in Seoul are all too wary and nervous over the timing of Pelosi's visit.

"Amid the deepening U.S.-China rivalry, China has threatened military actions and it could invoke a U.S. response in kind, which would eventually affect South Korea, because of the South's alliance with the U.S.," director of the U.S.-China Policy Institute at Ajou University Kim Heung-kyu was cited as saying in the publication.

It marks Pelosi's first visit to South Korea since 2015, and she's expected to encourage the country to deepen its support for Washington's shoring up coordination among regional partners and allies to counter Chinese aggression. 

DJ...pelosi is the US #3...East Asia already is in a major crisis in many ways...she is making things more complicated...not making things easy. Pelosi's tour is more in the interest of pelosi, US and US-democrats then in the interest of East Asia. 

It coincides with further US weapon exports to the region-already worsening tensions...

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-13[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-13 (#249) ;

Dongfeng EQ2050 (Chinese Humvee) military vehicle of the Chinese People's Liberation Army with the letter Z in Fujian province.

DJ, China is preparing for military reaction. It may stay limited to taking over some islands now under Taiwan control near mainland China...Defcon latest links has Taiwan thanking the western G7 for its support...A major problem for Taiwan is -unlike Ukraine- Taiwan can be cut of by its enemies...Ukraine still getting some support in energy, military goods...but Ukraine losses are much higher (one reason is lack of air cover, other reason is Russia massive missiles/artillery strikes...). For that matter -DJ- I think Taiwan already is in a weaker position...

China does get Russian support...Russia did give up hopes of any deals with the west...One reason why the present global situation is that much worse then during the (Soviet times) "cold war" is lack of "East-West" communications...

Russia/China relations with North Korea most likely did change as well-why let that relation be influenced by western wishes any longer ? North Korea may now fit a much more agressive Russian/Chinese agenda...

In SW Asia Iran, Syria are major strategic Russia/China allies...Asia has 60% of the global population...(4,6 out of 7,9 billion...). [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) looking at GDP by PPP (so NOT by capita etc) Asia is already dominating-by far-global trade...

The pandemic and sanctions wars made the picture for 2022 more complicated...China its economy is paying a price for "Zero-CoViD", lots of other countries pay a (higher) price for NOT going for "Zero CoViD"...Russia "low price" (compared to global market) export of energy to China, India -much higher price for decreasing energy export to "unfriendly countries" will also change the picture...

-Higher energy prices may mean exploration of "higher costs" sources may still bring in profit. North Sea oil & gas now will increase...For that matter "OPEC+" has limits to what they can do with both production and prices...

NL is an exception in the EU -we did get 5% of our gas from Russia, Germany 40%-so limited/no Russian energy is not hitting each country in the EU (or outside the EU) in the same way. Electricity, pipelines go all over Europe (including the UK-Brexit did not change the UK being a EU-member for decades). [url]https://www.ipkw.nl/nieuws/make-hydrogen-not-war/[/url] or https://www.ipkw.nl/nieuws/make-hydrogen-not-war/ ...high energy prices will increase innovation. 

Doing a lot more with much less energy in fact only started...

-DJ-my opinion; I think most countries do want conflicts to stay limited to one country/region...avoid a global war. Still a list of wars; Ukraine, Serbia-Kosovo, Armenia, Syria, Kashmir, Taiwan, Africa at the end could escalate into a global war...

"Politics" may still be "limited" by military/intel warning for further escalation. If Russia/Crimea targets will be hit from Ukraine it will bring reactions. (In this case Russia attacking NATO command posts in Ukraine...they are "not supposed to be there" so...). 

The price Taiwan may have to pay for the pelosi-visit is losing some islands...As long it stays with that the US, "west" will "protest but not act" (I think). A full scale invasion of Taiwan will result in an Ukraine scenario...US/west going for sanctions war (and hyperinflation...) against China...trying to make China pay the highest price possible...

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/ukraine-sitrep-on-the-ground-report-ukrainian-frontline-collapses.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/ukraine-sitrep-on-the-ground-report-ukrainian-frontline-collapses.html makes clear what paying a high price means..."Weakening Russia" means over 1,000 Ukraine deaths per day...

I think "the west" needs to go for "damage control"...we should have avoided both Ukraine and Taiwan ending up in confrontations...So far the outcome is the west is getting weaker..NOT stronger !

I love my freedom of expression, my right to disagree (without getting agressive/insulting !) I enjoy here in NL-"the west"....It is the confrontation and escalation strategy that put those democratic freedoms at risk...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 04 2022 at 5:15am

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-15[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-15 

Describing Chinese drills  & "tests" with missiles flying over Taiwan....Chinese Navy and aircraft ignoring any claims of "Taiwan" having its own "zone"...in the PRC/China/Bejing view Taiwan = China....Most likely US navy/planes may "act wise" staying away from Taiwan to avoid China...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Rapprochement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Rapprochement and 

Normalization[edit]

US president Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and other U.S. officials meet in the White House Cabinet Room with Chinese vice-premier Deng Xiaoping, 29 January 1979

In the Joint Communiqué on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations, dated 1 January 1979, the United States transferred diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. The US reiterated the Shanghai Communiqué's acknowledgment of the Chinese position that there is only one China and that Taiwan is a part of China; Beijing acknowledged that the American people would continue to carry on commercial, cultural, and other unofficial contacts with the people of Taiwan.[89]

DJ....The US still claims a "One-China-policy" but its actions speak a different language...

It must be "very hard" for US allies "to understand" what the US now wants...Taiwan as a (sort of) US colony ? 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/how-pelosis-visit-hurts-taiwan.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/how-pelosis-visit-hurts-taiwan.html ;

The people of Taiwan did not support Pelosi's grand standing:

News sites ran polls, with almost two-thirds of UDN’s respondents saying the visit was destabilising. Talk radio discussed preparation and escape plans, and walked listeners through their growing anxieties.

That wasn't helped by Pelosi's tone deafness:

At a news conference with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday, Pelosi was asked what she could offer Taiwan to offset the possible costs the island would incur — including economic retaliation from China — as a consequence of her visit.

She answered that her visit was part of a broader U.S. effort to have “better economic exchanges” with Taiwan, and she said “significant” Taiwanese businesses are already planning to invest in manufacturing in the United States.”

"You will get sanctioned while we will steal your prime advantage in chip manufacturing," is not exactly an uplifting message.

Other countries which Pelosi also visited felt sidelined by her anti-China antics:

Ms. Pelosi’s visit may also damage a push by the White House to shore up support against China from key allies in the region who analysts say have felt sidelined by the trip, and frustrated by the spiraling tensions. With much recent attention eaten up by China’s fulminations over the visit, allies suggested that they wish they had been better consulted ahead of Ms. Pelosi’s journey.

South Korea, where a recent economic imbalance and trade deficit has raised concernssnubbed Pelosi:

President Yoon Suk-yeol plans to speak by phone with visiting U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi later Thursday, his office said, after officials said earlier that a meeting between the two is not planned as Yoon is on summer vacation.

Pelosi wasn't amused:

Korea Pro @southkoreapro - 2:00 UTC · Aug 4, 2022

Yoon administration and the ROK National Assembly did not send any delegation to welcome Pelosi’s arrival last night. Pelosi was not pleased about the situation, multiple reports said.

All together Pelosi's trip was not the success she may have thought it would be. It was a trap she had set for herself when it first 'leaked' that she would visit Taiwan. If she had not gone the Republicans would have blasted her as a coward. Now she will carry the responsibility for further deteriorating U.S. relations with China.

Taiwan, which all the brouhaha is allegedly about, will further lose in its economic relations with China and will wither away as an economic power.

Eventually the people of Taiwan will vote for another party and unification will again come into sight.

DJ As [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TBcbDUPVgs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TBcbDUPVgs Alexander Mercouris mentions; A double-game on Taiwan may be the worst possible strategy...

AM at the end mentions Russia-China relations...I think he may be "minimalistic"; Russia, China (Iran) did have navy drills...may have been expecting this Taiwan crisis as a next step by the US to stop EurAsian integration...pushing Ukraine into war with Russia (NATO membership, Ukraine/zelensky claim of getting nuclear weapons...) was step 1. 

The outcome may be a growing gap not only between the EU and the US but also between (East)Asia nations and the US. South Korean PM is "conservative"...in Korean terms this could mean "more anti-Japan..."....

My impression is the US does totally ignore history of both Ukraine and Taiwan....The US seem to be unable to understand India, Indonesia-Russian relations....

The US foreign policy has become a show of utter stupidity...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosi-departs-taiwan-after-president-tsai-bestowed-highest-medal-china-preps-largest[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosi-departs-taiwan-after-president-tsai-bestowed-highest-medal-china-preps-largest ; Taiwan's Defense Ministry described the latest PLA actions as essentially a "maritime and aerial blockade.

DJ "Maritime and naval blockade"....Makes me wonder if China can "take over" Taiwan air/sea routes....by tech-war ? Any planes or ships entering Taiwan will have to deal with China-traffic control...wether Taiwan likes it or not...

"interesting times"...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 04 2022 at 11:02pm

DJ, 

When I think of Taiwan -China/Russia alliance- [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_invasion_of_Denmark_(1940)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_invasion_of_Denmark_(1940) comes to my mind...Denmark did try to fight the Germans april 9 - 1940. But German superiority did make that "fight" only a matter of hours...

I think China may be able "to take over" Taiwan at gunpoint...Taiwan not able to do that much...[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-16[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/%F0%9F%87%B9%F0%9F%87%BCtaiwan-%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3china-reports.16927/page-16 

...Japan claiming some Chinese missiles landed in Japanese territory...problem however is that both Taiwan and China (and so Russia...) does NOT see that as Japan territory...but Chinese. Taiwan/Formosa itself was under Japan rule from 1895 to 1945...

The US itself is making matters even more complicated by on the one hand still claiming to stick to "One China-policy" (from the Nixon/Kissinger years...wonder what Kissinger thinks of it all...) on the other hand "willing to defend Taiwan independence"...(so in fact a Two-China policy...). 

Lots of "simulated war games" made clear the US may simply not be able to defend Taiwan...Japan going for support of Taiwan would be a "very bad move" unwelcomed by both Chinese and Koreans...united in hate against Japan. The fact that pelosi was unable to visit any major South Korean official may signal "East Asia" is very unhappy with her actions...pelosi may be better recieved in Japan..."count your blessings"...again both Korea and China "do not have good historic relations" with Japan...So the US "lining up" with Japan may push both Taiwan and South Korea away...

-Military Summary [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y739fm1rhp8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y739fm1rhp8 ;(MS)

[url]https://southfront.org/overview-of-bloody-attacks-by-ukrainian-forces-on-civilians-in-donetsk-peoples-republic-on-august-4-18/[/url] or https://southfront.org/overview-of-bloody-attacks-by-ukrainian-forces-on-civilians-in-donetsk-peoples-republic-on-august-4-18/ ; On August 4, the AFU shelled the center of the city of Donetsk. One of the attacks targeted the drama theater, where the farewell to the colonel of the People’s Militia of the DPR Olga Kachura (known by the call sign Korsa) took place. She was killed a day before in Gorlovka.

DJ, Ukraine forces on the frontline need artillery support against (pro)Russian artillery...Ukraine losses by (pro)Russian artillery some days may be 1,000+ ...Ukraine is using the artillery to attack civilian targets in (pro)Russian held parts of Ukraine...

MS also mentioned Russia is claiming the US did spread both CoViD and Monkeypox MPX from biolabs in Ukraine...(older story) [url]https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-covid-science-health-donald-trump-0f535c2e136cacab85cfd269dc3124f2[/url] or https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-covid-science-health-donald-trump-0f535c2e136cacab85cfd269dc3124f2 ...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 05 2022 at 9:55pm

DJ, 

Usual sources; Military Summary, Alexander Mercouris; 

In/on Ukraine the "gap" between zelensky and Ukraine military is widening. The "azov"-regiment neo-nazi's blame zelensky for an attack on a POW camp killing over 50 fellow-nazi in Donetsk "Peoples Republic..The "west" still tries to blame Russia for that attack however "by now may no longer believe any of it...". The Ukraine military blame zelensky for ignoring their advice...so artillery is in the wrong places shelling the wrong (civilian) targets...A "Kherson/Xepcoh"offensive that never will come from the Ukraine side...however growing chance of Russia going for a "northward move" from Kherson and southward move from Sumy/Charkow...finishing the war...

The US-biden-now blaming zelensky for "bad leadership..."Afghanistan being repeated" only can be avoided by sending in NATO forces...by now very likely even Poland no longer willing to get its military "destroyed"...

So far the outcome of the "Ukraine war" -avoidable-is over 100,000 Ukraine military killed...Russia even stronger...the west in a major crisis...

Under trump lots of agreements on weapons/security expired..trump even ended the Iran-deal...agreed with Jerusalem as Israel capital...The hope in Europe/the world was biden would undo a lot of damage trump did...

But based on CIA/MI6 "intel" the "western"idea was Putin was in a very weak position in Russia...sanctions would stop Russia from interventions...NATO could expand further east, ignore Russia calling for renewal of all kinds of agreements-part of them from Soviet-times...

The idea of "Russia being weak" was very wrong! Ignoring increase of trade between RIC Russia-Iran-China, ignoring Arab frustration on the US stand on Israel...US increasing its oil-production, competing with OPEC...DJ-I simply am unable to understand how western leaders failed to get a more realistic view on the globe...

It is wrong to only blame trump...biden could and should have undone lots of foolish things trump did...It is very wrong to only put the blame at the US...Europe did not agree with trump ending the Iran-deal but failed to safe enough of it...Ukraine agreeing with the Minskdeals-but in fact ignoring them-was a European major mistake...

Talks on secutity in Europe most was in the interest of Europe..here Europe has most of the blame...France, Germany warned against NATO moving further east in 2008...maybe believed NATO expansionism would be "part of talks" with Russia on new agreements...point is those talks with Russia on renewal of old agreements never started...

A.o. South China Morning Post now had the news of zelensky trying to get in contact with Xi/China...Maybe unrealistic but I -DJ- hope maybe China can help to end the Ukraine war Russia also did not want. Russia wanted talks on security in Europe, protection for ethnic Russians in Ukraine...but only did get ignored or insulted from the west...

And now a UK paper-close to the ruling "UK conservative party" claims China Army is "a paper tiger" when China is blocking Taiwan...Pelosi not very welcome in South Korea-dealing with the fall-out of her visit to Taiwan...North Korea possibly preparing another nuclear test...China preparing for "reunification" of Taiwan/Formosa with China"...

The US political elite may have been unhappy with pelosi East-Asia travel...they did NOT stop the US #3 in power (after the President and Vice-President)  from making that trip...

Another outcome is Russia-China further strengthenining their cooperation-also with Iran...Now also China as good as ending communication with the US/west...

Even most "pro-Atlantic" European leaders must by now have a sense of horror...Asia population 4,6 billion, out of 7,9 global...GDP of China, India, Russia, Indonesia, Iran now kicking out the west...The economic damage for the west only starting...inflation will further increase when China goes full blown anti-western sanctions...

Again...this could and should be avoided...

Again...in the pandemic we see the same kinds of total stupidity..NOT stopping diseases spreading, limited vaccinations resulting in mutations creating new variants...and we seem to learn nothing !

Stupid rules !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 06 2022 at 10:27pm

DJ, 

Just making my mind up on the present global international situation;

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U87imtAWIMQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U87imtAWIMQ ; Russia Advances Deeper Into Bakhmut, Lynchpin of Ukraine's Donbass Defence, Putin And Erdogan Forge Economic Alliance News Topic 575

and [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/reaction-to-pelosis-visit-reveals-chinas-plans-for-a-taiwan-conflict.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/reaction-to-pelosis-visit-reveals-chinas-plans-for-a-taiwan-conflict.html 

DJ;

"Make trade not war"...

Pelosi visited the DMZ "De-Militarized-Zone" between North and South Korea...in South Korea the person in the same position as pelosi recieved her...ministers did not find time for her...

In Sochi Putin and Erdogan agreed to bring Turkish-Russia trade to 100 billion US$ (?) value per year...That would bring Russia-Türkiye trade to the level of Russia-China (present) trade...

In the past Russia and China -in Vladivostok- had talks with "the Korea's" to bring them closer...End goal for both Korea and China-with Taiwan- is reunification..(a bit like the German 1989 reunification). 

Both Taiwan and South Korea have major high-tech industries...however both countries depend on import of energy, raw materials, food...Asia-population 4,6 billion-of course is a "very interesting market" both for selling goods and bying food, energy, raw materials...For that matter the US may not be "that interesting..". US loves to export weapons & LNG both at very high prices...

"Peacefull reunification"  may be the goal for both "Korea" and Taiwan..."increasing pressure, putting limits" now is part of that trajectory...It looks like China will NOT take even a cm2 of Taiwan by force...But it will show it could take all of Taiwan -most likely within a short time"....

Western embedded media, insane politicians, may call that "bluff"...I think both Taiwan and South Korea get the message...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/urgent-china-moving-nuclear-missiles-in-public[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/urgent-china-moving-nuclear-missiles-in-public

What no one has been telling Americans is that Taiwan has a very serious history to it.   In World War 2, Japan invaded China.  Japan conquered a huge amount of Chinese territory.

That invasion took place from . . . . the island we now call Taiwan.    Back then, the island was named Formosa.

So China, as a matter of its own security, cannot and will not allow that island to become a sort of Garrison island for some foreign force.  Because anything on that island __could__ be used as the basis for another actual invasion of China.

That's the national security concern for China, when it comes to Taiwan.

DJ...that story is partly correct...Japan did control Manchuria and Korea before invading China...Formosa/Taiwan was under Japan control since 1895...But China will NOT allow the US/ "a global NATO" taking over Taiwan...For that matter there is some similarity with Ukraine...

I expect Russia and China to try harder to get "economic deals" with Taiwan and Korea...(low cost North Korean workforce working for Taiwan/SK industry may be part of it...NK coal for Taiwan...). 

DJ-Ukraine is in a "slow collapse" with reports of military no longer willing to die without good reasons...a growing foodcrisis, the US trying to distance itself...About 30% of western weapons getting to frontlines-in untrained hands...no repair capacity...I expect the zelensky US puppets to collapse if not this month then next month...

Another "Afghanistan" disaster...

No doubt Putin and Erdogan did talk about Syria and Iraq...how they both want US to get out...get a grip on the Kurds. Russia would like to see the Kurds joining the Syria and Iraq armies...Türkiye wants to kill those Kurds...may get help from Iran in killing Kurds...

So US foreign policy did break the isolation of not only Iran but very likely also of North Korea...Pelosi her visit was meant to give US democrats some chance in the US midterm elections...but it was a total disaster...another one...

DJ-I am surprised/shocked by "European leaders" still in support of US totally insane foreign policy...Italy may see a new right wing government ending that support...France may not stay behind...In Germany also increasing unease...A "cold winter, hyperinflation, mass unemployment" may wake people up...

Israel went bombing Gaza maybe out of frustration it can not get any support for bombing Iran...Israel politics looks like the "politics" in many other western countries; a tunnelvision unable to escape out of the dead-end street...the wall means "stop"...

Learning the very hard way-at the end "we" have to talk with Russia on safety in Europe...We should have done so last year...would have been in a much better position...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2022 at 11:05pm

DJ, 

The Duran on Taiwan [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnKaherHp2Q[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnKaherHp2Q the two Alex's basiccally in shock on biden/US stupidity in foreign policy...(DJ [url]http://thesaker.is/the-saker-interviews-michael-hudson-6/[/url] or http://thesaker.is/the-saker-interviews-michael-hudson-6/ maybe a basic point for US foreign policy is it "major financial sector" trying to make profit out of any crisis...but it is a dead-end street...only the 0,1% do not care...as long as they get more rich...ruin countries...).

So...China will continu its drill around Taiwan till at least the middle of august...US Navy "planning to cross the Taiwan strait"...DJ...China will STOP that...Taiwan is part of China from pelosi her -stupid- visit....Very likely US fighters getting close to Taiwan will see Chinese escorts...

DJ; Since Taiwan needs imports from food, energy, raw materials a Chinese blockade may have the goal of a "change of government position" on reunification...I think Bejing may go for "One China-Two policies"....With Bejing taking over foreign policy, trade and defense...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s39p_eqD94s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s39p_eqD94s Military Summary; Ukraine defenses are collapsing not only in the east but also in the south...Pro-Russian forces may be on their way to Nikolayev...Ukraine preparing some action on the northern border with Russia ? (Most new info in the last 1/3 of that video...)

[url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/7-august-explosions-reported-in-several-cities-of-kherson[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/7-august-explosions-reported-in-several-cities-of-kherson DJ (Pro)Ukraine (NATO ???) forces shelling Kherson....Livemap very pro NATO...often unrealistic but may give some indications...

[url]https://southfront.org/us-anti-radiation-missile-makes-surprise-appearance-in-ukraine-photos/[/url] or https://southfront.org/us-anti-radiation-missile-makes-surprise-appearance-in-ukraine-photos/ US anti radar weapons supposed to be fired from an aircraft (mis)used....in Ukraine...

DJ-As Alexander Mercouris mentions; countries look at who most likely will win the battle...Lavrov Russian FM did get a warm welcome in the Middle East and Africa...Turkey made deals with Russia...100 billion$ worth of trade to be made in Russian and Turkish currencies...India/Türkiye retail taking over "shops" western companies had to close in Russia...Chinese and Iran bussinesses also will increase...OPEC+ now moving further "towards the Asia market"...

Somehow "western politics" seem to be unable to understand Asia is 60% of global population, PPP-GDP may by now be 50% of global GDP...Fiat-currencies, US$, Euro-€ are a weak spot...Russia and China back their currencies with gold and energy...

And all "the west" can think of is a "global NATO" for neo-colonialism only "the west" thinks is acceptable...

DJ-I am "left wing" on a NL political scale...freedom of expression I think is major...But the west is making "pseudo democratic dictatorships" now the dominant powers...

Diplomacy, talks in stead of confrontations...Why "the west" is this unable to go for diplomacy ? 

Again-both in foreign policy and in pandemics "stupid rules"...it looks like "the west" has lost it power to think....


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2022 at 11:27pm

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GNv_psx94I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GNv_psx94I ; Russia Starts Storming of Key Donbass Town of Bakhmut, Zelensky Admits Ukraine Suffering Heavy Losses, FT Says West 'Concerned' About Turkey Realigning with Russia News Topic 576

and [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBN0mAHNjBg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBN0mAHNjBg ;Putin and Erdogan meet in Sochi, cooperation deepens amidst many disputes The Duran: Episode 1349

DJ, We are in a global political crisis. Countries may try to stay out of conflicts that they do not see as their conflict. India, Türkiye going for national interests. 

They both need energy-imports, economic growth...Western countries went on a "sanctions war" are getting frustrated other countries do not join them...But often these countries simply can not afford joining that western sanctions war against "bad Russia"...On top of sanctions wars against lots of other countries not following US orders...

Even discussing sanctions on India, Türkiye...repeating mistakes-unable to learn a thing-is pushing them further towards the Russia-Iran-China coalition...(RIC)...RIC itself is the outcome of western sanctions war...lack of diplomacy, confrontations..

The inability to learn from mistakes, outright stupidity over-and-over again also showing in the climate collapse and pandemic; profits for the 0,1% go above sanity...

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/policy-by-other-means-by-helmholtz-smith.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/policy-by-other-means-by-helmholtz-smith.html 

Alexander Mercouris ends his video referring to hitler...starting new wars before winning old wars...The west, convinced of its superiority is doing that again over and over...we all know how Germany ended in 1945...(If you google who financed hitler, nazi's you will learn a wide variety of people did...for lots of different reasons-a "western elite" was behind fascism taking over Europe then...I hope we can stop/reform in the west before that mistake gets repeated full scale..."genocide by pandemic"/economy=profit first is a bad omen).

Main stream media blindly copying Ukraine propaganda, the "end of journalism" "embedded propaganda" and political parties as a sort of cults make democracy become at risk. 

If Türkiye joins "TIP" Türkiye-Iran-Pakistan (with Afghanistan, Syria ? Iraq ?) "TIP" may go for a balance between Russia, China, India, EU, Arab world...self interest in order to survive...

I think Türkiye leaving NATO will be the end of NATO...NATO-wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen have been total disasters...NATO is also losing the Ukraine-war...China is -slowly- taking over Taiwan...South Korea is going for "EurAsian markets"...

Sticking to the same confrontationism, NATO expansionism is ending the west...Diplomacy, respect for other countries interests, honest/fair deals (also outside US$/Euro) could have saved the west...

The EU may be more flexible then the US...BeNeLux in 1944 reunited the "Low Countries" in a new format...it was one of the roots for European cooperation...A "new" EU has to find a balance between self-interests of member states and common goals...(like infrastructure-also for electricity, water, energy, currencies). 

"We" in Europe need trade with Asia...if possible "balanced" trade with lots of countries...Africa is our neighbour in the south...Replace the "neo-colonial global NATO" with respect and (fair) trade would create a "better world"...

There is a way out of this crisis...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 10 2022 at 10:37pm

DJ, 

Military Summary [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GlinZQOzKY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GlinZQOzKY ; DJ Ukraine is sending wounded soldiers to frontlines...logistics major problem-a lot of it now in civilian cars...Donbas-frontline further slow collapse...Pro-Russian forces breaking up fortifications Ukraine did build since 2014...artillery main Russian tool...

DJ-Some western media claim (Pro)Russian forces (the "media/propaganda" likes to claim all fighters are Russians...most of the frontline fighting however is done by ethnic Russians-Ukrainians...During the USSR/CCCP Russians did spread allover the Soviet Union...) did suffer "tens-of-thousends" military killed...The -very limited-picture I have total (pro)Russian fighters killed may be under 20,000....a lot of them "Ukraine-Russians" from the Donbas...

DJ-The western puppet regime in Kiev is "at breakingpoint"...in need of successes...

"Western media/propaganda" follow Ukraine lies basiccally claiming Russians are shelling themselves...near a nuclear power plant under Russian control (with Ukraine staff), the POW-camp with azov-neo-nazi POW's...even the spread of mines near (pro-Russian controlled) Donetsk would be done by Russia...The level of non-sense "free western media" is spreading is shocking...brainless...

There are still questions on an attack on a Crimea-Airbase. Some claims are it was a UK/Ukraine operation destroying Russian planes (9 of them ?) and wounding 60 pilots...Russia claims it was an accident with ammunition/fuel...IF Russia believes Ukraine attacked Crimea (seen as part of Russia) then Russia will go for "main targets" in Ukraine...possibly including NATO-HQ (supposed not to be in Ukraine...). 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/how-ukraine-lost-its-riches.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/how-ukraine-lost-its-riches.html DJ; Besides a strategic position Ukraine also has resources, minerals, gas...Heavy industry...The sanctions war resulted in much higher global prices...main exporters of energy and natural resources did see prices go up...Russia was such a main exporter...The west may be importing less from Russia-but is unable to replace those imports from other countries-so prices went up...had to be paid in Rubles...

The quantity of Russian exports may have dropped, since the west is paying a much higher price (a.o.) Russian profits increased...Besides that-often decreasing oil/coal/gas production is not that easy-Russia increased strategic storage, export to India, China, Türkiye...but also increased diesel, kerosine production...part of that also ending in "the west" for much higher prices...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcK4IdxNouo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcK4IdxNouo ; Russia - Turkey trade deal causes collective west panic The Duran: Episode 1352

DJ; Türkiye has plans for gas-exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean sea...it now has backing from Russia...Greece also wanted to make claims on that part of the sea...Since Türkiye is "essential" for NATO Erdogan is now "playing his cards"...Türkiye and Russia more or less agree on Syria becoming under Assad-control...TÚrkiye will stop support for IS, pro-Turkish groups - Russia will "push" the Kurds to work with Assad...Iran, Türkiye and Russia more or less on the same line for both Syria and Iraq...US/NATO forces have to go...

Bringing Russia-Turkish trade to "China levell" (100 billion US$ per year) may turn Türkiye into a transferpoint between Russia/EurAsia and the Arab World/Africa...Russia has good relations with China, India, Indonesia, most of Africa and OPEC+....DJ-South East Europe will have "to move"....

Greece did follow the US "orders" of confrontation with Russia...now may face Türkiye  is getting a major control over the East-Mediterranean...(DJ-Also Israel will see Russian influence not only in Syria but also (again) in Egypt...).

[url]https://southfront.org/chinese-exercises-around-taiwan-continue/[/url] or https://southfront.org/chinese-exercises-around-taiwan-continue/

The action of the Chinese army was perceived by the Taiwanese government as a rehearsal for the capture of the island, and as a result, Taiwanese fighter jets were patrolling in the air. Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned China’s decision to extend the exercise, saying it was deliberately creating a crisis. The ministry demanded Beijing to stop the military actions.

Some countries that have a pro-American stance, such as Australia and Japan, condemned China’s drills. The countries said the exercises were provocative and reckless and posed a threat to regional security.

-

The exercises in the vicinity of Taiwan are not the only ones. The PLA leaders planned to hold exercises in the southern part of the Yellow Sea, which will last at least until August 15, earlier similar exercises were held jointly with Russian troops. In addition to the exercises, Beijing also imposed sanctions on two Taiwanese foundations, banned the export of natural sand and some fruits to Taiwan, Pelosi herself and her family. Beijing also suspended dialogue with Washington on such issues as climate change, the process of returning migrants, drug control. In response, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken condemned China’s statements on the termination of cooperation.

DJ, There have been Navy-drills in the Indian Ocean of Russia, China and Iran Navy...India-China relations are still "problematic" however India simply can not support a neo-colonial "global NATO" if India wants to become a major global economic player...(China GDP-PPP is already larger then that of the US, India GDP-PPP may soon follow...Also the EU GDP-PPP may be larger then that of the US...depending on statistcs used...wich could soon result in the US economy at #4 in the world...no longer the #1 it was in some statistics...). 

China goals are increasing not only control over Taiwan but also over the South China Sea...Taiwan may no longer welcome US navy in its waters...the price will be very high...Also Russia and China will very likely increase "Korean reunification talks" and "access of Korea on EurAsian markets"....India may be part of those talks as well...

Australia has no choice but "change its position" if it wants to survive...They need access to the Asia market....Japan may face "nationalist extremism" -will be seen by "the region" as a US colony...Denied access to most of Asia...

Of course diplomacy could have avoided confrontations...but "the west" does not know "diplomacy" any longer...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2022 at 11:38pm
Insider Paper

@TheInsiderPaper
 · 
BREAKING: US will mount a “freedom of navigation” exercise in the “next few weeks” through the Taiwan Strait, despite rising tensions with China over the island https://insiderpaper.com/us-to-conduct-new-air-and-maritime-transits-in-taiwan-strait-white-house/

DJ, I think Bejing will no longer allow US Navy in Chinese waters...also not in the sea near Taiwan....What is the US view ? Is Taiwan part of China or not ? You can not have a "one China policy" but act as if Taiwan is "the other China"....

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/iran-confirms-drone-sale-to-russia-but-what-will-it-buy-in-exchange.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/iran-confirms-drone-sale-to-russia-but-what-will-it-buy-in-exchange.html ;

Russia has developed a number of drones for itself. The Orlan-10 is good for artillery observation and electronic warfare on the tactical battalion level. Then there is the 200 kilogram Korsar which has a tactical strike role. There is also the ZALA-421-16E5, a ...

... tactical operation unmanned aerial reconnaissance system. The UAV flight duration is 6-7 hours, the flight range is up to 150 km, the monitored area can exceed 21,000 sq km in a single launch.

That is better than the Orlan 10 but still at the basic tactical level.

Anything above that, an operational-tactical drone that can stay up for a whole day and night and continuously cover the front of one or more brigades is something that Russia has not had so far.

The Iranian Shahed 129 is an equivalent to the U.S. MQ-1 Predator. It has infrared and day optics, a laser designator for precise targeting and it can carry four precision-guided bombs. Its range is 1,500 kilometer which is significantly more then current Russian drones have. Since 2014 these drones have been used by Iran in Syria so Russia will already have has some direct experience with their battle field performance.

I am sure though that Iran will take several years to deliver 1,000 of those. But that may not matter. A few dozen will be sufficient enough for now to continuously cover the whole 2,000 kilometer frontline in Ukraine at the necessary depths.

It is unusual for Russia to buy weapons from other states without any other compensation. I therefore suspect that this is not a one sided deal but that Iran has promised to buy some significant Russian systems in exchange.

An order of several dozen of the most modern version of the Suchoi Su-35 air superiority fighter would make sense. They would finally allow Iran to get rid of the way too old U.S. made F-4 Phantoms and Grumman F-14 that it has been flying (and crashing) for ages.

Iran and Russia may want to wait for the outcome of the still ongoing nuclear agreement negotiations before any official deal will be announced. It simply would be unwise to disturb that process now and to give hawks in the U.S. more arguments to let the deal fail.

The further cooperation between Russia and Iran though is independent of the outcome of the nuclear agreement negotiations. It will succeed as nothing that the U.S. could throw up against it is able to influence either side.

Also [url]https://ejmagnier.com/2022/08/13/russia-buys-1000-drones-from-iran-and-expands-the-level-of-strategic-cooperation/[/url] or https://ejmagnier.com/2022/08/13/russia-buys-1000-drones-from-iran-and-expands-the-level-of-strategic-cooperation/ 

DJ, Türkiye and now Iran producing drones. The drones Russia is buying from Iran can stay in the air 24 hrs...

Last month [url]https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-russia-energy-deal/31950165.html[/url] or https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-russia-energy-deal/31950165.html

The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and Russian state-controlled energy giant Gazprom have signed a memorandum of understanding worth around $40 billion, according to the Iranian Oil Ministry's news service, SHANA.

The deal, agreed on July 19, coincides with Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Tehran for a summit with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts.

SHANA reported that Gazprom will offer its support to NIOC in the development of the Kish and North Pars offshore gas fields and also six oil fields.

It said that Gazprom will also be involved in the completion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and construction of gas-export pipelines.

Iran has the world's second-largest gas reserves after Russia, but U.S. sanctions have prevented access to extraction technology and slowed development of gas exports.

DJ...India is also a major investor in Iran-energy...[url]https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/08/13/687307/China-US-stock-exchanges-delisting-PetroChina-Sinopec[/url] or https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/08/13/687307/China-US-stock-exchanges-delisting-PetroChina-Sinopec

Five US-listed Chinese state-owned giant companies, collectively worth hundreds of billions of dollars, have announced they will delist from the US stock exchange amid a decaying market and tensions between Washington and Beijing over regulation and broader political issues.

In a flurry of separate statements on Friday, three of the world’s biggest energy firms, PetroChina, Sinopec and Shanghai Petrochemical, said they would apply for a voluntary delist of their American depository shares (ADS) from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Two other state-owned giants, the insurer China Life and the aluminum producer Chalco, also announced they would halt offering their shares in the United States, naming the administrative burden and costs related to maintaining the shares as the cause behind their decisions.

DJ [url]https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/xi-jinping-to-visit-saudi-arabia-next-week--is-the-us-sideli[/url] or https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/xi-jinping-to-visit-saudi-arabia-next-week--is-the-us-sideli  China-Saudi Arabia relations may further intensify...(Alexander Mercouris also talked on it...) China/PRC-Saudi/KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) relations have been "warm" for over 40 years. China is a major buyer of Saudi oil...Part of the talks also will be on Saudi Arabia joining BRICS, a new reserve currency replacing the US$...

US-FM blinken visited Africa...warning Africa countries may face sanctions if they trade with Russia...Somehow the US does "not get the message"...

Russia-Iran, China-Saudi Arabia, Russia-India, China-Pakistan...cooperating for de-colonization...With the "US-led" "west" going for a neo-colonial global NATO....


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2022 at 1:12am

part 2 for today, trying to get a "balanced picture" some DEBKA/Israel claims/stories;

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/russia-has-lost-fifth-of-its-combat-aircraft-in-ukrainian-war/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/russia-has-lost-fifth-of-its-combat-aircraft-in-ukrainian-war/ ; As many as 13 Russian combat aircraft were said destroyed in a surprise Ukrainian strike in Crimea in on Thursday. Military analysts estimate that the Ukraine war has so far cost the Russian air force the loss of 47 warplanes – possibly one-fifth of its total combat aircraft

DJ...so is the Israel claim Russia only has 235 combat aircraft ? (With the claimed loss of 47 combat aircraft being 1/5th ? No doubt Ukraine propaganda...Russia [url]https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/largest-air-forces-in-the-world[/url] or https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/largest-air-forces-in-the-world

Russia's air fleet

The Russian Air Force is a distant, but comfortable second to the USAF when it comes to military aircraft, with a total of 3,863 military aircraft (with another 310 allotted to the Navy). During the Cold War, Soviet airpower was comparable to that of the United States, but after the dissolving of the Soviet Union and the establishment of the Russian Federation, the Air Force budget was reduced considerably. However, since the turn of the 21st century, the Russian Air Force has been steadily improving and retains enough precursors to hold steady control of the #2 spot, at least for a little while longer.

So Russia may have 235 combat aircraft involved in the Ukraine War ???? Not very clear claim/story....

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/russian-rocket-puts-iranian-spy-satellite-into-orbit/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/russian-rocket-puts-iranian-spy-satellite-into-orbit/ ;

The Soyuz-2 rocket carried the Iranian Khayyam satellite into orbit on Tuesday from the Russian Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. Responding to Western suspicions that Moscow would use the launch to spy on Ukraine, the Iranian space agency insisted that the Islamic Republic would control the Khayyam satellite “from day one.” Due to “encrypted algorithm, no third country could access the data it sent.”

DJ...I doubt Russia would need an Iran satelite to keep an eye on Ukraine...I also doubt Iran would have "major problems" if Russia could/would use that Iranian satelite...if they get "things in return" like;

[url]https://www.debka.com/iran-gives-russia-300-combat-drones-in-trade-for-su-35-warplanes-in-deepening-military-ties/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/iran-gives-russia-300-combat-drones-in-trade-for-su-35-warplanes-in-deepening-military-ties/

Up against fierce odds in Ukraine,  (DJ-does the west realy believe Ukraine would be able to win from Russia ???? DJ) Moscow has forged a comprehensive military contract with Tehran which promises help in the form of 300 Shahed-129 and Shaed-191 combat drones (see photo), in return for fourth generation Sukhoi-35 fighters, DEBKAfile’s special military sources disclose. 


Russian experts will upgrade the Iranian Air Force’s capabilities to absorb the new aircraft.


The military ties developing between Moscow and Tehran are multi-faceted. Iran’s aviation industry and its air force maintenance facilities have been repairing Russian aircraft damaged in the Ukraine war. (DJ-Is there any proof for that claim ???? DJ)The drones supplied to Russia will also showcase Iran’s products for the world market. In the past fortnight, as part of their military deal, Iran has placed its cyberwar hackers at the service of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.  (DJ-Proof ???-) The Farigh al Tehereh hackers, who attacked electronic networks at bases in Rumania, are operating for Russia under cover disguised as “the Iraqi resistance group.”


Western sources have learned of Russian and Iranian officers holding high-level meetings to discuss Tehran possibly offering Moscow the use of some of its  ballistic missiles to make up for Russia’s dwindling stocks in the Ukraine conflict.


Another topic considered is the possible handover of Russia’s Syrian bases to Revolutionary Guards forces, since Moscow is deploying some of its Syria-based units as reinforcements for its war effort in Ukraine. This subject first came up in July 22 during the talks Revolutionary Guards commander Gen. Hossein Salami held in Damascus with Syrian president Bashar Assad.  At the time, Moscow was against expanding Iran’s foothold in Syra, but, according to Western intelligence sources, it is more amenable to this at present.


An open display of the tightening military relations is still to come with a large-scale joint Russian, Chinese, Iranian naval exercise in Venezuela scheduled to take places from 17 to 27 of August in Venezuela. This will be the first time Moscow is blatantly working with Tehran to signal Washington that the three hostile navies are quite able to combine and strike America in the event of total war.


In further signs of amity, Iran has established a trade center in Moscow; Russian and Iranian airlines have stepped up the frequency of flights between the two countries; both are using Russia’s Mir electronic payment service and finally, Russia has provided Iran with a passage to India for its exports.


DJ, Part of the DEBKA-story is meant to get US support against Iran....Israel (a de-facto non-NATO NATO member...integrated in NATO infrastructure) has moved away from a neutral stand to a pro-US/NATO stand...So Russia is now willing to give Iran more room in Syria...

Another aspect is Putin did meet with Erdogan (Türkiye) twice in a month...Türkiye made all kinds of trade deals with Russia. Both countries want to "fight terrorism" in Syria and Iraq...Türkiye means Kurdish groups, Russia means IS etc. (both the Kurds and IS de facto US/Israel allies). 

RIC (Russia-Iran-China) navies going for exercise near  Venezuela [url]https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/07/06/685164/Iran-China-Russia-to-flex-muscles-in-America[/url] or https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/07/06/685164/Iran-China-Russia-to-flex-muscles-in-America ; “In mid-August, Venezuela will host the “Sniper Frontier” competition with the participation of Russia, Iran, and China’s military, as well as at least 10 other nations,” said the report.

-

"The VRIC (Venezuela, Russia, Iran and China) nations are getting ready to make a loud statement that the region is ready to embrace the multipolar force."

DJ, will the timing of the US (and other UK ?) navy moving into the Taiwan Strait be related to the "VRIC" Navy drills ? 

Israel hoped Saudi Arabia would support Israel against Iran...but Gulf States embrace OPEC+, Xi visiting Saudi Arabia (again)....Most likely Israel may feel it is getting isolated...

Egypt also showed interests in BRICS...Türkiye may join EurAsian trade...Iran already member of the SCO...major partner for Russia-India trade via the Caspian Sea...

DJ-So ...Israel may be getting in an impossible position if it wants to keep confronting Iran...Maybe it should seek bette relations in the Middele East-North Africa...(MENA-region)....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2022 at 1:24am

part 3; 

[url]https://southfront.org/sdf-suspended-joint-operations-with-us-led-coalition-in-northeastern-syria-report/[/url] or https://southfront.org/sdf-suspended-joint-operations-with-us-led-coalition-in-northeastern-syria-report/ ;

In response to the recent drone strikes, the SDF and its affiliate, the Afrin Liberation Forces, have been attacking Turkish bases and troops in Syria.

By suspending counter-terrorism operations, the SDF is likely trying to pressure the US-led coalition into restricting Turkey’s drone operations over its territory. The US have warned Turkey against launching a new operation against the SDF. However, it will not likely go as far as taking steps to actually restrict Turkish military operations in Syria.

Turkey remains a key NATO ally of the US. Washington is currently more interested in integrating Finland and Sweden into the NATO in response to the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. This will not be possible without Ankara’s blessing.

DJ...NATO without Türkiye would be a major US loss...but I expect at the moment it is only a matter of time Türkiye now is on its way out...Maybe renewed EU membershiptalks could change that picture ? 

[url]https://southfront.org/us-threatens-russia-and-iran-with-sanctions-over-alleged-drone-deal/[/url] or https://southfront.org/us-threatens-russia-and-iran-with-sanctions-over-alleged-drone-deal/The US claims may be just a stunt meant to increase pressure on Russia over its operation in Ukraine and more importantly on Iran over its drone program. Washington and its allies in the Middle East, first and foremost Israel, have been trying to sabotage Iran’s drone program for quite some time now.

DJ...more US sanctions? Seriously ???? Does the US want a renewed Iran-deal ? Iran and Türkiye more and more becoming allies...

[url]https://southfront.org/the-seventh-us-made-himars-launcher-destroyed-in-ukraine/[/url] or https://southfront.org/the-seventh-us-made-himars-launcher-destroyed-in-ukraine/ ;

On August 13, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed that another US-made HIMARS launcher and a warehouse with ammunition for it were destroyed in Eastern Ukraine. So far, the Russian military reported the destruction of 7 systems supplied by US to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The HIMARS launcher and a warehouse were destroyed by the Russian airstrikes in the area of the city of Kramatorsk in the Donetsk People’s Republic which is under control of the AFU.

In total, the Pentagon promised to transfer 20 HIMARS launchers to Kiev, of which 16 have already arrived in the country. As noted by Washington, Ukraine assured that it would not use the systems for strikes on Russian territory. At the same time, the Ministry of Defense of the country allowed their use for targets in Crimea.

DJ Russia also did buy  a HIMARS from corrupt Ukraine forces...The US/NATO is organizing most of the Ukraine war...Ukraine is "fully funded by the west"....Russia seems to be preparing to "take over" all of Ukraine. First plans only involved security for Eastern Ukraine and water supplies for Crimea...So "western support" may be "the end" for Ukraine...

End of part 3...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 hours 25 minutes ago at 11:02pm

Further escalation; 

Ukraine;

[url]https://southfront.org/sabotage-attack-destroyed-russian-military-warehouse-in-crimea/[/url] or https://southfront.org/sabotage-attack-destroyed-russian-military-warehouse-in-crimea/ ;

On the morning of August 16th, large explosions took place at a temporary warehouse near the town of Dzhankoy in the northern Crimea. This is the second such incident in the Crimea in the past week.

Explosions at a temporary ammunition depot near the village of Mayskoye thundered around 6 a.m. Moscow time. Two civilians were injured as a result of the incident. One of them was hospitalized.

The Russian Ministry of Defence declared that the explosions were the result of a sabotage attack. It resulted in damage to a number of civilian facilities, including a power line, a power plant, a railway track, as well as a number of residential buildings. The local substation is considered one of the key energy hubs of the Crimean peninsula. It caught fire as a result of the explosions, but the fire was quickly localized.

Residents are being evacuated, to ensure the safety of people, they are being taken out of the five-kilometer zone. The forces of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Ministry of Defense, Rosgvardiya, emergency services are involved to eliminate the consequences of the attack.

The high level of terrorist danger was declared in the northern region of the peninsula since the beginning of the Russian military operations in Ukraine. After the incident, a state of emergency was not imposed in other areas.

On the same day, clouds of smoke were reported over the military airbase in the village of Gvardeyskoye in the Simferopol region of Crimea. According to the local reports, several explosions were heard on the territory of the military facility. The situation in the area remains calm, no evacuation or other measures were taken. Crimean officials have not yet commented on the incident.

Earlier, on August 9, explosions rocked Russian military air base “Saki” near the town of Novofiodorovka in the Republic of Crimea. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the explosions were the result of detonation of several aviation munitions. The Ministry declared that the only considered reason was violation of fire security measures.

After the Ukrainian military deployed foreign weapons supplied by Kiev’s Western allies in the southern regions, they were given the opportunity to hit Russian military and civilian facilities on the Crimean peninsula. However, the Kiev regime is well aware of the dangerous consequences and Russia’s military response to any attack on Crimea. At the same time, Kiev may use groups of saboteurs who remain under the control of Ukrainian security forces on the peninsula to attack the Russian military. In particular, Ukraine still has influence over some Crimean Tatars with radical views, who have been used for years as political puppets of the Kiev regime.

and;[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bulletin-ukraine-artillery-hits-reactor-cooling-system-and-nuke-waste-containers[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bulletin-ukraine-artillery-hits-reactor-cooling-system-and-nuke-waste-containers ;

Despite over a week of warnings from Russia that Ukrainian forces were deliberately targeting the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant and could cause a disaster, Ukraine continued firing.  Today, artillery shells hit the cooling system for a reactor, and hit containers with nuclear waste.

This report is published at 5:08 PM eastern US time.  The attack took place about 3 hours ago.

It is not yet known (to me) if there is any reactor trouble or radiation leak from either the reactor cooling system or the nuclear waste storage containers.

-[url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-august-russian-fsb-blames-ukraine-for-explosions-of-power[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-august-russian-fsb-blames-ukraine-for-explosions-of-power

Russian FSB blames Ukraine for explosions of power lines at Kursk NPP

[url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-august-railway-blown-up-in-kursk-region-of-russia[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-august-railway-blown-up-in-kursk-region-of-russia ;

Railway blown up in Kursk region of Russia

[url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-august-sirens-sounded-in-briansk[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-august-sirens-sounded-in-briansk 

Sirens sounded in Briansk

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-warns-of-direct-military-clash-with-us[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-warns-of-direct-military-clash-with-us ;

Washington’s behavior on the world stage risks direct conflict between the nuclear states, the Russian embassy in the US has warned.

“Today, the United States continues to act with no regard to other countries’ security and interests, which contributes to an increase in nuclear risks,” the embassy said in a statement on its Telegram channel.

“The [US’] steps to further engage in a hybrid confrontation with Russia in the context of the Ukrainian crisis are fraught with unpredictable escalation and a direct military clash of nuclear powers.”

The embassy noted that Washington has recently withdrawn from two key arms control agreements, the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which banned certain classes of land-based missiles, and the 1992 Treaty on Open Skies, which allowed for surveillance flights over each other’s territories.

The embassy urged the US to “take a closer look at its own nuclear policy instead of making unfounded accusations against the countries whose worldviews do not coincide with the American ones.” 

“Our country faithfully fulfills its obligations as a nuclear-weapon state and makes every effort to reduce nuclear risks,” the diplomats said.

The statement comes after the US accused Moscow of using the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine as cover for its soldiers. The plant, the largest in Europe, was seized by Russian troops during the early stages of Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine, which was launched in late February. It continues to operate with Ukrainian personnel under Russian control.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Russia’s action at the facility “the height of irresponsibility.” Russia and Ukraine, meanwhile, have been accusing each other of shelling the plant. According to Moscow, artillery fire by Ukrainians forces caused several fires and partial power outages this month.

Russia initiated a UN Security Council meeting last week regarding the situation around the Zaporozhye power plant. Russian envoy Vassily Nebenzia said that Moscow supports the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect the facility as quickly as possible.

DJ...There should be no doubt Ukraine now is attacking nuclear powerplants in Zaporozhye-Russian held Ukraine and at Kursk-Russia. To be able to attack the Kursk plant western intel/weapons will be used. 

The attacks in Crimea may be-at least in part-UK special operations. 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/a-multipolar-expo-shows-unipolar-wreckage.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/a-multipolar-expo-shows-unipolar-wreckage.html 

An outcome of Russia-North Korea talks -according to some sources- is North Korea offered 100,000 of its soldiers to fight for Russia in Ukraine. Of course North Korea did not expect Russia to take that offer...

still the US politicians visiting Taiwan, US navy planning to move into the Taiwan Strait-in between China and Taiwan-may see North Korean military being in combat in East Asia soon...

DJ-[url]http://thesaker.is/will-the-ukraine-be-partitioned-next-and-if-so-how/[/url] or http://thesaker.is/will-the-ukraine-be-partitioned-next-and-if-so-how/ 

There may be some "talks" between "some western countries" and Russia on "ending the war in Ukraine"...A "suggestion" may be Poland-Hungary-Romania all could take part of western Ukraine...so NATO still could move east..There may remain "a Ukraine" most likely neutral, the east-and south of Ukraine would become part of Russia...

To be honest;(saker article)

So will the Ukraine be partitioned?

Yes, absolutely, it has already lost huge parts of its territory and it will only lose more.

Might the western neighbors decide to take a bite out off the western Ukraine?  Sure!  That is a real possibility.

But these will all be either unilateral actions or very unofficially coordinated understandings wrapped in plausible deniability (like the deployment Polish “peacekeepers” to “protect” the western Ukraine).  But mostly I predict two things will happen: 1) Russia will achieve all of her goals unilaterally without making any deals with anybody and 2) Russia will only allow the Ukraine’s western neighbors to bite off some chucks of the Ukraine if, and only if, those chunks to not represent any military threat to Russia.

Remember what Putin said about Finland and Sweden and Finland joining NATO?  He said that by itself, this is not a problem for Russia.  But he warned that should these countries host US/NATO forces and weapons systems threatening Russia, than Russia will have to take counter-measures.  I think that this is also the Kremlin’s position about the future of any rump-Banderastan and any moves by NATO countries (including Poland, Romania and Hungary) to reacquire territories which historically belonged to them or which have substantial Polish, Romanian and Hungarian minorities.

DJ; Russia is now using military force to get its security deals...The west refused talks...Taking over ALL of Ukraine may not be in Russian interest. Could prolong the conflict. The "west" even could be allowed to "claim a sort of victory"...as long as Russia gets what it wants...

Indirect the Ukraine war is also a warning for other countries; Russia does take its security serious...do NOT cross Russian "red lines"...From Finland to Japan, the Arctic, Russia made that message clear...

China has the same message...it will NOT allow further US weapons on Taiwan...The US is ignoring Bejing warnings and security demands...so Taiwan is next...

Russia and China are now allies...something kissinger disrupted in the 70's...Outsourcing of all kinds of work to "low cost China" was a result in the decades that followed...

Maybe trump/republicans in the US -going for a trade war with China- are the most to blame for China and Russia now being this close...but the roots go deeper...The US has been supporting all kinds of unrest in China...Uyghurs ended up in IS in Syria, Ukraine...The "One-China-policy" started under Nixon was a compromise between dealing with reality and support for an anti-Communist strategy in China...[url]https://southfront.org/new-american-nuclear-doctrine-targets-russia-and-china-simultaneously/[/url] or https://southfront.org/new-american-nuclear-doctrine-targets-russia-and-china-simultaneously/ ;As the admiral was trying to shift the blame to Russia and China, he ignored the simple fact that it was the sheer US belligerence and aggression against the world which caused the proliferation of thermonuclear weapons, as countries decided they don’t want to be held at gunpoint by the political West. Now, the US is faced not just with old rivals like Russia, but also with China, which is responding to numerous US provocations, including in Taiwan. As a result, any new strategic arms control negotiations will put the US in a very difficult position, as neither Russia nor China trust the political West to hold its end of the deal. Thus, the US will need to either escalate a new arms race (the one in which it’s already lagging behind) or come to an agreement which will still result in the need to divide its strategic forces (limited by a treaty) equally against Russia and China, while the two (Eur)Asian giants have only the US to focus on.

DJ; In fact the situation may be worse;

-UK seems to be more anti-Russia then the US wants them to be...The UK may have a limited nuclear arsenal but enough to start a global disaster...bojo replaced by liz truss only makes matters worse...(Liz Truss would NEVER win any UK elections...)

-Israel may go for a solo-action against Iran...To "limit risks" for Israel it could be a "fatal first strike" supposed to unable Iran to destroy Israel...The basic idea of some Israel politicians may be that once an Israel-Iran war is started Israel will get help from NATO and some Arab countries...I think Israel may be wrong there...Israel attacking Iran would start a global war...

-North Korea is waiting to show its strength...Now Russia and China are slowly opening their doors both Russia and China will have a major job in "limiting North Korean actions"...Russia, China and -very likely- a lot of other countries may "push" for a sort of Korean reunification...The German reunification is in history very unusual...in the sense it did not end in a direct war...Yemen-reunification may be the "more normal way" reunification goes...a war to create a new balance...

-Pakistan-India...maybe even India-China should be another headache...The China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor is providing China with (rail)roads and a port to the Indian Ocean...In the Kashmir-conflict China may be "to close" to Pakistan from India's point of view...With China also trying to get influence in Nepal, Sri Lanka etc. (If you could include Myanmar/Burma in that list, Bangla Desh-former East-Pakistan, one could claim China is encircling India...).

-TIP...Türkiye-Iran-Pakistan are more and more working together in infrastructure and trade...It is also a way to balance between Russia, China, EU, Arab World, Africa...Iraq, Afghanistan,  Syria could be included (TIPIAS ?)...but a to powerfull "TIP" may be a risk for others...(India, China...)

-Japan may go for nuclear protection...Due to US confrontationism Japan may now be seen as a US colony by East Asian countries...

DJ-Given the very large list of military nuclear accidents/incidents in the past we are very lucky to still be alive...A "false alarm" with very limited reaction-time may start a nuclear escalation...A planecrash with nuclear weapons (like happened on Greenland with a US plane) could become "a very major problem"...But also escalation of wars could see "tactical" nuclear warfare...

So...outlook for nuclear war is "terrible"...We need talks NOW !!! We need de-escalation NOW !!!!

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 71822
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 hours 54 minutes ago at 6:33am

Maybe a part 2, 

Alexander Mercouris (AM) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkApIJxQX54[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkApIJxQX54 is questioning some latest news on Russia getting drones from Iran, Russia-North Korea ties...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quRNaKA8HZE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quRNaKA8HZE WION-India in a (much shorter !) video showing the "historic good relations" between Russia/Soviet Union since they did push out the Japanese in 1945....Over 30,000 NK workers get their income in Russia...

Russia and China are "not happy" with the NK nuclear plans...but since the west -in Russia/China perspective- is "gone crazy" it may be better to increase ties with countries you can work with...

-Türkiye-Russia trade deal in Sochi must bring trade to 100 billion US$ worth per year...(the same level as Russia-China trade a few years ago...major !)

-Russia-India energy for Rupees

-Russia-Iran trade via Caspian Sea, a,o. further towards India...Russia also buying Iran drones ???

-Russia - (North)Korea would fit in such a strategy...NK has a lot of workers...

[url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1273175.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1273175.shtml ;

Malaysia looks forward to an early resumption of people-to-people exchanges with China that have been cut off by the epidemic, Raja Dato' Nushirwan Zainal Abidin, Ambassador of Malaysia to China, said at the launch session of the Malaysia Truly Asia Festival on Monday, while highlighting outstanding trade achievements and business cooperation between the two countries during the pandemic.

As the first country in ASEAN to establish diplomatic ties with China in 1974, Malaysia has enjoyed fruitful bilateral relations in the political, economic and people-to-people aspects. Malaysia has also been one of the top travel destinations in terms of tourism, education and business for the Chinese community. On April 1, Malaysia fully reopened its borders after two years, enabling visitors from all over the world to visit, the ambassador said, calling for more Chinese visitors in the future.

DJ; Malaysia is exporting energy to China, tourism is of major interest for Malaysia...But also Türkiye is hoping to get more tourists from both Russia and China...(Even Iran, wintersports not far from Tehran...North Korea "closed tourist spots"want more income from tourism...). 

Improving ties with "friends" could translate to looking for allies...

[url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-august-russian-fsb-reports-6-member-of-hizb-uttahrir-alislami[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-august-russian-fsb-reports-6-member-of-hizb-uttahrir-alislami

Russian FSB reports 6 member of Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami were detained in occupied Crimea

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hizb_ut-Tahrir[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hizb_ut-Tahrir ;

Hizb ut-Tahrir (Arabicحزب التحريرromanizedḤizb at-Taḥrīrlit.'Party of Liberation'; HT) is an international pan-Islamist and fundamentalist political organization whose stated aim is the re-establishment of the Islamic caliphate to unite the Muslim community (called ummah)[3] and implement sharia globally.[a][b]

The party was founded in 1953 as a political organization in then-Jordanian-controlled Jerusalem by Taqi al-Din al-Nabhani, an Islamic scholar from Haifa who was educated in Egypt and served as a qadi (religious court judge) in Mandatory Palestine.[32][33] Al-Nabhani developed a program and "draft constitution" for the caliphate,[4][10][11][12] Since 1953, Hizb ut-Tahrir has spread to more than 50 countries, and has a membership estimated to be between "tens of thousands"[1] to "about one million".[2] Hizb ut-Tahrir is active in Western countries, including the UK, and also in several Arab and Central Asian countries despite being banned by some governments. Members typically meet in small private study circles, but in countries where the group is not illegal, it also engages with the media and organizes rallies and conferences.[34]

Hizb ut-Tahrir has been banned in Bangladesh,[35] China, Germany,[36] Russia, Turkey,[37] Indonesia,[38][39] and all Arab countries except Lebanon, Yemen and the UAE.[40][41] In July 2017, the Indonesian government revoked Hizb ut-Tahrir's legal status, citing incompatibility with government regulations on extremism and national ideology.[38]

IS-like groups have been active on the Ukrainian side...hizb ut-tahrir fighters may have war experience in other war zones (Syria, Iraq, Lybia, Yemen, Kashmir) and could be active in Crimea...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatars[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatars link ? Some jihadi's are very anti-Russia/China...but also very anti-West...

On Taiwan; [url]https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/08/16/687471/Taiwan-rejects-China-One-Country-Two-Systems-proposition[/url] or https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/08/16/687471/Taiwan-rejects-China-One-Country-Two-Systems-proposition

Officials in Chinese Taipei have rejected the 'One Country, Two Systems' plan proposed by China for the self-ruled Island, tensions are high between China and Taiwan. The flare up comes days after the provocative visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island.

Taipei has retorted that only the Taiwanese can decide the islands future. The reaction came after China published a white paper on Taiwan which Beijing says shows the resolute determination of Beijing to peacefully resolve the unification issue.

DJ; Both Taiwan and South Korea want access to the Asian market...If "US protection" means war they may seek alternatives...Maybe closer ties with Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Australia...but keeping the west; US, UK out may offer better protection then the current "agressive US protection"...

For that matter Indonesia could become a "regional superpower" offering a "balance". TIP Türkiye-Iran-Pakistan cooperation may be the West-Asia example...

Taiwan-China, like the "two Korea's" (or the BeNeLux, Germany)  have to find ways to "unite in a friendly way"...The US/UK are NOT helping in that process...

China may go for confrontation with the US, Japan while still trying to have talks -and pressure- with Taiwan...

DJ-with winter just a few months away "the West" needs to move either get out of conflict or "win the war"...Some (US, UK, Poland) may still seek further escalation...but most western countries face serious limits...economic recessions..political unrest..

I think both the "united west" and the Kiev-puppet regime soon will be a thing of the past...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
ksc View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: February 09 2020
Status: Offline
Points: 7605
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 9 hours 11 minutes ago at 10:16am

Contrary to Putin's puppet's propaganda (PPP), it appears the tide is changing and the Nazi orc's are feeling the "sting" due to their antiquated military tactics and equipment. As the Ukrainian troops get more comfortable with their new toys and tactics I think we'll hear more about "radical terrorist" attacks by an embarrassed Putin and the PPP brigade. 

Why Kyiv’s ‘thousand bee sting’ strategy is costing Russia dearly

By Max Boot

If you want to understand the Ukrainian way of war, you could do worse than to pick up, as I recently did, a 1954 book called “Strategy” by the influential British military thinker Basil Liddell Hart. Having been gassed during the 1916 Battle of the Somme, where much of his battalion was wiped out, Captain Liddell Hart had developed a burning hatred of brutish generals who led their men to slaughter in frontal and futile attacks on the enemy. He called this the “direct approach,” and he attributed it to the great nineteenth-century Prussian strategist Carl von Clausewitz, who held that “only a great battle can produce a major decision.”

Sign up for a weekly roundup of thought-provoking ideas and debates
Rejecting Clausewitz, Liddell Hart embraced the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu, who wrote, “Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.” In tracts that he began publishing in the late 1920s, Liddell Hart surveyed thousands of years of military history to argue that the key to victory was to strike where least expected, dislocating the enemy psychologically and materially and making possible a relatively bloodless victory. He cited examples ranging from Hannibal’s march across the Alps to Sherman’s march across Georgia to demonstrate “the superiority of the indirect over the direct approach.”
Many historians have critiqued Liddell Hart for twisting history to make every conflict fit his argument. It’s true that no single theory can possibly explain all military outcomes over thousands of years. Yet Liddell Hart’s thinking seems quite applicable to the war in Ukraine. The Russians have pursued a brutal, unthinking direct approach that hearkens back to World War I, while the Ukrainians have outsmarted them with the indirect approach that Liddell Hart claimed was the hallmark of “Great Captains.”







The war began on Feb. 24, when the Russians mounted an armored and air assault on Kyiv. Remember the 40-mile Russian column headed for the Ukrainian capital? Rather than counterattack with their own tanks, the Ukrainians used hand-held missiles such as the Javelin to carry out pinprick strikes, targeting trucks carrying supplies in particular. Before long the column ran out of fuel and food, and the Russians were forced to pull back. Kyiv was saved. This was the indirect approach par excellence.


The Russians regrouped in mid-April using overwhelming artillery fire to clear their path in Luhansk province just as World War I generals did. That offensive forced the Ukrainians to stage a fighting withdrawal in early July from Lysychansk, the last major city they had held in Luhansk. But they inflicted such heavy casualties on the attackers that the Russian offensive has stalled without having secured the whole of the Donbas region.
Since then, Ukraine has been using U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to take out Russian command posts and ammunition dumps far behind the front lines. This strategy has impeded the flow of shells to Russian batteries and greatly slowed the bombardment of Ukrainian positions.







On Aug. 9, a Russian air base in occupied Crimea was rocked by at least six explosions that destroyed or heavily damaged at least eight warplanes. Then on Tuesday another blast hit a large Russian ammunition depot in Crimea. Ukrainian officials did not comment in public but privately told reporters that both blasts were the work of their special forces.
Now, the Ukrainians are using the indirect approach to squeeze the Russian garrison in Kherson, the largest Ukrainian city under enemy occupation. Rather than mounting a direct assault, which would result in heavy casualties, the Ukrainians have been using the HIMARS and other systems to target the bridges across the Dnieper River that deliver supplies to the Russian forces in Kherson. The Ukrainians claim to have damaged all four bridges, leaving the Russian troops in danger of being stranded.
Ukrainian officials said Russian commanders have already evacuated to the east bank of the Dnieper, and some analysts predict the entire force may be forced to pull out of Kherson due to lack of supplies or risk of being captured. A similar Ukrainian strategy of interdicting logistics previously forced the Russians to evacuate Snake Island, a strategic chokepoint in the Black Sea.







“We do not have the resources to litter the territory with bodies and shells, as Russia does,” said Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov. “Therefore, it is necessary to change tactics, to fight in a different way.” Another Ukrainian official told the Wall Street Journal they are inflicting “a thousand bee stings.”
Australian retired major general Mick Ryan has written that the Ukrainians are pursuing a strategy of “corrosion” that seeks to erode “the Russian physical, moral and intellectual capacity to fight.” Another name for this strategy, as Ryan notes, is “the indirect approach” championed by Basil Liddell Hart.
The problem is that it can be hard to achieve a decisive result with indirect attacks. Sooner or later, if the Ukrainians want to liberate their land, they will have to attack and drive the Russians out. But they are being savvy in doing everything possible to weaken the invaders before that happens.

Back to Top
ksc View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: February 09 2020
Status: Offline
Points: 7605
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 9 hours 8 minutes ago at 10:19am

"This corrosive, indirect approach doesn’t show up in big changes regarding “lines of control” quickly, but has a steady impact over time. As seen in the Kherson area, the orcs are going to begin to give up ground that they can no longer control without uncontrolled losses.
The continued loss of logistical abilities are tightening the vise that will strangle the invaders. Soon enough, in the grand scheme of things, Crimea will be cutoff from land access.
Allies must maintain their resolve and assistance. The tide has turned and momentum is building. "


Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <123
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down