Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
October Pandemic |
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Posted: June 01 2009 at 1:18am |
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Swine flu pandemic 'in autumn'
A flu pandemic is likely to strike the UK in September or October, with the virus gathering strength as it spreads, a leading expert will say today. Professor John Oxford, an expert in virology, said that even though only 229 cases of swine fu have been confirmed in the UK so far, he was certain of a flu pandemic which would take hold as autumn begins. Children going back to school, universities re-opening and people returning to work after the summer break would give swine flu the "opportunity" it needs, he said. He warned that a pandemic was likely to affect the UK before a vaccine becomes available, adding that the vaccine - which is expected to be ready in October or November - would only cover about 15 per cent of the population. Prof Oxford, of Queen Mary School of Medicine, University of London, praised campaigns urging people to observe good hygiene - such as using tissues and not coming into contact with infected people - but said they would not halt the virus altogether. "Problems at the moment are fairly low, with schoolchildren and the odd sporadic case in the community. "But when children go back to school in September the virus has an opportunity, and normally it takes it. "That's the scenario we should prepare for." Prof Oxford said children were usually involved in an outbreak because they liked to be in close contact. "Children are very social, they play together and put their arms around each other, they kiss each other. Also, their hygiene levels are not very high." He added: "I view it [tackling flu] like a medieval castle, with several layers of defence: you've got the outer layer which is hygiene and social distancing, then the virus breaks through that and then we have antivirals like Tamiflu and then the final layer is the vaccine. "You chuck all of this at the virus. You can't stop it, but you can slow it down." Prof Oxford said there had already been sporadic cases which were not linked with anyone coming into the UK from the US or Mexico. "That does suggest that the virus is silently spreading around," he said. He said the current estimate that 50 per cent of the population may get infected was on the "low side". He added: "The virus will be like a bushfire." In order to avoid flu, people should keep their distance from others, wash their hands regularly and cough into the crook of your arm. The World Health Organisation's current threat level of a flu pandemic is at level five. Declaration of a pandemic would move it to level six. A spokesman for the Department of Health said: "Our strategy to slow the spread of the disease appears to have been effective, and the UK's arrangements continue to ensure that we are well-placed to deal with this new infection. "But we must not be complacent - it is right to prepare for the possibility of a global pandemic." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5416452/Swine-flu-pandemic-in-autumn.html |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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HoosierMom
Valued Member Joined: June 15 2006 Status: Offline Points: 334 |
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Great article Kilt , thanks. "But we must not be complacent - it is right to prepare for the possiblility of a global pandemic" Says it all.
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Technologist
Admin Group Joined: May 05 2009 Location: California Status: Offline Points: 1192 |
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So he's stating that 50% of the Population being infected is on the low side ??? 6.7 Billion people divided by 2 = 3.35 Billion people. Divided by the current mortality Rate of .5% = 16.7 Million Deaths. Don't forget that's based on his LOW side estimate. |
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Annie
Valued Member Joined: April 06 2009 Location: East Texas Status: Offline Points: 319 |
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Gardens, summer, late summer, fall and winter greens. I cannot impress upon the importance of purchasing heirloom seeds. Store in a jar. We have not invested in the sealed containers of seeds. We have had great experience with several year old seeds stored in a jar in a climate controlled area. GET READY, Annie
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Dense populations are going to be hit very hard by this pestiferousness little (flu virus) monster. "Technologist"
Stock 3 months water, food, weapon/ammo, meds, supplies, and some money at home. |
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Annie
Valued Member Joined: April 06 2009 Location: East Texas Status: Offline Points: 319 |
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I think that 6.7 Billion people number should be changed to reflect the population of UK?
The visual clip of the pig virus cracks me up!
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Dense populations are going to be hit very hard by this pestiferousness little (flu virus) monster. "Technologist"
Stock 3 months water, food, weapon/ammo, meds, supplies, and some money at home. |
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jandressup
V.I.P. Member Joined: June 01 2009 Location: Upstate WNY Status: Offline Points: 522 |
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"And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him." ............For those that are 'saved', They have nothing to fear......GOD is with Us.....for only flesh dies...Saved Souls are eternal..............
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I was given to believe that even novel influenza viruses infect only about half the population at most, because our genetic diversity gives about 50% of those exposed natural immunity.
The swine flu virus clip is too funny. Thanks for that |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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jeanne
Adviser Group Joined: May 06 2009 Status: Offline Points: 32 |
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good lord. i feel sick |
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SusanT
Valued Member Joined: March 22 2006 Location: Wisconsin Status: Offline Points: 422 |
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Go ahead and count on god to get you through a pandemic, and you will probably die. I don't fear death, but I choose to keep my flesh alive and raise my 4 year old son, so I will prepare. |
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jandressup
V.I.P. Member Joined: June 01 2009 Location: Upstate WNY Status: Offline Points: 522 |
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Then prepare by reading the Bible to your son and hope and pray that your souls are saved...because no flesh lives for long.....
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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Technologist
Admin Group Joined: May 05 2009 Location: California Status: Offline Points: 1192 |
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This thing is worldwide and we have 6.7 billion people on the planet. You can't just count the UK. In 6 weeks it's already in 50 countries. It's spreading where flu season has long past. It's also several times more virulent compared to the normal seasonal flu's. This thing is going to circle the globe several times. WorldWide Flu Map |
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Loribearme
Adviser Group Joined: September 06 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2542 |
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lets not forget about the deaths that will be caused by the vaccine.
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SusanT
Valued Member Joined: March 22 2006 Location: Wisconsin Status: Offline Points: 422 |
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...and the deaths from lack of routine medical availability or prescriptions if things get bad.
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Tenth_Door
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DITTO ! And thank you jandressup.
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It Is What It Is
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Tenth_Door
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Pa-leeze. Christian I am not. Nor any religion for that matter. Man came first, religions came second.
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It Is What It Is
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I absolutely do not want to offend anyone over faith with this, but can we please ask for relevant posts as opposed to just quoting scripture? It serves little purpose and I don't want to see an argument take over a thread because of it. For the believers amongst us it's something they've already accepted as their truth, but for the non-believers it's irritating when it's the only thing some people bother to post. Constructive contributions are more likely to save lives if the SHTF, so please feel free to pitch in with something that might actually help.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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jandressup
V.I.P. Member Joined: June 01 2009 Location: Upstate WNY Status: Offline Points: 522 |
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the scripture was quoted by the professor from the UK.....John Oxford from Queen Mary School of Medicine........
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I tried...
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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ME163
Admin Group Joined: September 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 4552 |
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Religion or no religion, this will be a nasty pandemic... I will get plenty of preps and stuff so we will not die. I really can't afford to be sick. I have a disabled GF who needs me... So I will prep as if my life depends on it because it does....
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jandressup
V.I.P. Member Joined: June 01 2009 Location: Upstate WNY Status: Offline Points: 522 |
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But do not be afraid...to be absent from the body is to be present with the Lord.....by all means prepare, but he's in control....this is Forseen....
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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Annie
Valued Member Joined: April 06 2009 Location: East Texas Status: Offline Points: 319 |
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Dense populations are going to be hit very hard by this pestiferousness little (flu virus) monster. "Technologist"
Stock 3 months water, food, weapon/ammo, meds, supplies, and some money at home. |
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Did Panasonic Corp. get it right or atleast partially right.
Or maybe they knew somthing we did not.
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TOKYO - Panasonic Corp said on Tuesday it has ordered families of its Japanese overseas employees to return home from developing countries that the company believes may be at risk of an influenza pandemic.
The employees will stay, but families of those working in China, Asia excluding Singapore, the Middle East, Africa, Russia and South America, were ordered in December last year to return to Japan by the end of September, spokesman Akira Kadota said. The Osaka-based company is not disclosing the number of the affected families or the employees. Panasonic, the world's biggest maker of plasma TVs, last week said it was cutting 15,000 employees from its work force over the next year and forecast its first annual net loss in six years. Mr Kadota denied the move to bring familes home was related to cost-cutting. He said the company had been studying the risks of related to bird flu for some time and called the order 'proactive'. 'It would be very difficult to quickly return home should a pandemic strike,' he said. Bird flu remains hard for people to catch, but health experts worry it could mutate into a form that passes easily between humans, possibly triggering a pandemic that could kill millions worldwide. The H5N1 strain has killed at least 254 people worldwide since 2003, most through contact with sick birds. Panasonic has 200 affiliated companies overseas, about 70 in China, and 70 more in the rest of the Asia-Pacific region. -- AP |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Hotair
Valued Member Joined: March 17 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 667 |
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Jandressup, go back to your church and be with your own kind.Your bleeding is not wanted here.
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jandressup
V.I.P. Member Joined: June 01 2009 Location: Upstate WNY Status: Offline Points: 522 |
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" Therefore when you see the 'abomination of desolation' standing in the holy place....Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains"(Christ)
...no church for me.....read your bibles.....and pray.....
Also...if you're gonna stock up...stock up on large quantities on GUIAFENESIN...and whole chickens with bone...for respiratory infection, which this H1N1+H5N1 will be....breathe the vapors while cooking, and drink the broth for the natural antibiotic therapy...also add garlic and bleu cheese to your diet, as they are also natural antibiotics......don't deep breathe in crowded situations and keep a vessel of 10% bleach to swipe surfaces daily,,,throw out the otc lysol-type brands of disenfectant.......drink lots of plain tea as it cleans the lining of the lungs....Jan...Pathology m/a
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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4=laro
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do you really believe all that crap? You've certainly been enlightened enough to at least try to think a little on your own.
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jandressup
V.I.P. Member Joined: June 01 2009 Location: Upstate WNY Status: Offline Points: 522 |
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Don't bet wholly on Tamiflu, which is only good if taken within a two day period of signs of symptoms, and only fudges Dna replication ...and don't bet on a vaccine because by the time the vaccine is cultured, grown and procured..it won't any longer be specific enough for a mutated pathogen...so homeopathics, good hygiene and some naturals won't hurt....oh! btw...speaking of 'enlightened'....nice profile.....
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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Elver
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Since the H1N1 flu is mild at this point in time, it may be better to catch it now before it mutates into something worse. This way we would obtain some sort of immunity to it. That's my thinking anyway. |
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jandressup
V.I.P. Member Joined: June 01 2009 Location: Upstate WNY Status: Offline Points: 522 |
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To contract the virus now really guarentees nothing, unfortunately, once the virus mutates,, reassorts and or recombines with another seasonal and / or the H5N1 it could weaken or turn into a nightmare.....the only thing effective would be an immediate vaccine, but by the time this virus has been around awhile and infected the population over time and mutated again...that would be useless..keep in mind , mutation is what viruses do best!.......Jan Pathology Assistant...
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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timmac
Valued Member Joined: April 26 2009 Location: Las Vegas Status: Offline Points: 3 |
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Stock up on whole chickens with the bone, that's a new one to me, now I will need a larger deep freeze.
Ah forget it I will just stick with my freeze dried food and can soups..
Your natural cure there sure sounds pretty funny..
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jandressup
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when the chicken carcass ( with bone) is boiled for a period of time the chemicals of the broth based elixir are released which act on neutrophils in the blood which cause lung and nasal inflammation....it also inhibits the white blood cells that trigger the inflammatory response (causing sore throats and the production of phlegm.)so much better than popping a bunch of pills that don't work on viruses anyway....Jan
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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jandressup
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Chicken contains an amino acid called cysteine, a substance released when you make the soup. This amino acid is similar to the drug acetylcysteine, which is prescribed by doctors to patients with bronchitis. It thins the mucus in the lungs, making it easier to cough out or expectorate. And hot chicken vapors have been proven more effective than hot water vapors in clearing out the cold in your nose and easing affected lungs in bronchitis, a secondary implication to respiratory virus infections.......Jan
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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Trashcanman
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I bet China has lots of cheap chickens.
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jandressup
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lol!..as long as they are boiled, it wouldn't matter........
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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Technologist
Admin Group Joined: May 05 2009 Location: California Status: Offline Points: 1192 |
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Just buy some (NAC) N-acetyl-cysteine (NAC) Completely over the counter in the USA. That's what the hospitals use. It's much more effective compared to chicken. I remember living off Chicken, Turkey and Broccoli to help with the asthma. They also use NAC for the antidote to Tylenol overdose (Acetaminophen). I had asthma for many years. They put me on flovent, corticosteroids, albuterol etc,.. They just made me sicker. I bought some NAC, I take it every day and I've never had asthma again. No side effects for me. I even do Triathlons now. |
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jandressup
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cool!...but as long as I gotta eat...why not anyway...so where is the pharmaceutical N-acetyl-cysteine derived from naturally? ... or is it synthesized...thanks...Jan
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Jan - I saw from your profile that you have some experience in the medical field. Interesting posts and welcome aboard
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Guests
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Yes, ditto Jan- interesting stuff. Medclinician |
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Tinijocaro
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Just buy some (NAC) N-acetyl-cysteine (NAC) Completely over the counter in the USA. That's what the hospitals use. It's much more effective compared to chicken. I remember living off Chicken, Turkey and Broccoli to help with the asthma. They also use NAC for the antidote to Tylenol overdose (Acetaminophen). I had asthma for many years. They put me on flovent, corticosteroids, albuterol etc,.. They just made me sicker. I bought some NAC, I take it every day and I've never had asthma again. No side effects for me. I even do Triathlons now. [/QUOTE] How do you dose this stuff-I have a 7 year old daughter who had to be hospitalized twice for severe asthma. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I'd like to know too. My wife (along with her two brothers) has suffered with severe asthma all her life, but she's vegetarian and wouldn't be interested in the chicken derived version. If it's synthetic however (and as effective as it sounds) I'm sure she'd want to try it. She goes through so many different inhalers and is still prone to bad attacks every so often. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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jandressup
V.I.P. Member Joined: June 01 2009 Location: Upstate WNY Status: Offline Points: 522 |
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ok, then we need to email the member above my original question of 'natural or synthetic' and I can do some pharmaceutical research as well....ttyl, Jan
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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jandressup
V.I.P. Member Joined: June 01 2009 Location: Upstate WNY Status: Offline Points: 522 |
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Acetylcysteine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia will give you all the medical and dosage info.......copy and paste the name above in your browser..and take your pic, many info sites to choose from...I also have a certificate in RX.. and would strongly suggest upon purchase to ask your pharmacist about dosage anyway to be safe......ref:
N-acetyl cysteine (NAC) is a specially modified form of the dietary amino acid cysteine. When taken orally, NAC is thought to help the body make the important antioxidant enzyme glutathione. It has shown promise for a number of conditions, especially chronic bronchitis. ref:Cysteine (abbreviated as Cys or C)[1] is an α-amino acid with the chemical formula HO2CCH(NH2)CH2SH. It is a non-essential amino acid, which means that humans can synthesize it. Its codons are UGU and UGC. With a thiol side chain, cysteine is classified as a hydrophobic amino acid. Because of the high reactivity of this thiol, cysteine is an important structural and functional component of many proteins and enzymes. Cysteine is named after cystine, its oxidized dimer. |
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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jandressup
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Cysteine Food Sources: Dietary sources Ref: Wikipedia.com
Although classified as a non-essential amino acid, in rare cases, cysteine may be essential for infants, the elderly, and individuals with certain metabolic disease or who suffer from malabsorption syndromes. Cysteine can usually be synthesized by the human body under normal physiological conditions if a sufficient quantity of methionine is available. Cysteine is potentially toxic[citation needed] and is catabolized in the gastrointestinal tract and blood plasma. In contrast, cystine travels safely through the GI tract and blood plasma, and is promptly reduced to the two cysteine molecules upon cell entry. Cysteine is found in most high-protein foods, including:
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If you have one foot on yesterday...and one foot on tomorrow...You are "piddling" on today!....Take time to smell the Flowers....
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Thanks for that Jan.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Technologist
Admin Group Joined: May 05 2009 Location: California Status: Offline Points: 1192 |
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This what I take for athma. It costs me 9 cents per day. I would read up on it and don't stop your asthma meds without consulting your doctor first. NOW NAC I take one 600mg Capsule per day. Some people need 1800 mg per day. If I have a flu I double my dosage. Most painkillers Aspirin, Tylenol and NSAIDs to name a few can trigger asthma attacks that can be life threatening. Its tough when a child has asthma and the Flu as to lower the fever with meds you end up risking asthma attacks. NAC allowed me to stop all asthma meds. It might not work for your wife. My case was adult onset so I can't say it will help a child that developed asthma at a young age. I would at least have some NAC on hand for the Swine flu. If it works its dirt cheap and it's liver protecting instead of liver damaging. The dosage of NAC for tylenol poisoning is much greater. Matching the mg's of tylenol ingested. . The antidote for APAP (Tylenol) poisoning is N -acetylcysteine (NAC). NAC is theorized to work through a number of protective mechanisms. NAC is a precursor of glutathione and increases the available glutathione to conjugate NAPQI. It may also enhance sulfate conjugation of any unmetabolized APAP. NAC also functions as an anti-inflammatory and antioxidant and has positive inotropic effects. NAC increases local nitric oxide concentrations, and this vasodilatory effect on microcirculatory blood flow enhances local oxygen delivery to peripheral tissues. These microvascular effects are associated with a decrease in morbidity and mortality even in the setting of established hepatotoxicity. NAC is most effective when administered within 8 hours of ingestion. When indicated, however, NAC should be administered regardless of the time since the overdose. Therapy with NAC has been shown to decrease mortality rates in late-presenting patients with fulminant hepatic failure, even in the absence of measurable serum acetaminophen levels. Medscape Article: |
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Wishbone
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My grandmother always saved chicken, pork and beef bones until she had enough to make a big pot of broth...then simmered it for a few hours. She first put a couple teaspoons of vinegar in the pot to leach out more calcium into the broth...she said it made for stronger bones in old folks like her.
I don't know if vinegar works this way. Does anyone know?....
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