Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - October
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

October

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 88487
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: October
    Posted: October 01 2023 at 6:54am
Replying to  and 
We already have school closures. But not because of ‘draconian’ lockdown policies… …it’s because there’s no teachers left to teach. They’re all ill! If those who claim to ‘advocate for children’ advocated as strongly for clean air in classrooms, we wouldn’t be in this mess.

DJ...of course-living in the age of stupid- "people not catching infection spread the disease".....

We may have a winner.

-

[url]https://twitter.com/1goodtern/status/1708033764696199270/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/1goodtern/status/1708033764696199270/photo/1 New york flooding is caused by lack of maintenance during lockdowns...

Of course it can get even more crazy....

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qr2CkFudBhg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qr2CkFudBhg Alex Christoforou; 

-ursula von der leyen/EU blaming Russia for nuclear bombing of Japan august 1945...(even when the USSR/stalin did not have the atomic bomb...)

-anthony blinken claiming [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babi_Yar#Massacres_of_September_1941[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babi_Yar#Massacres_of_September_1941 more or less Russia agreed with the mass murder of 33,771 Jewish and other kiev citizens...

On 29 and 30 September 1941, the Nazis and their collaborators murdered approximately 33,771 Jewish civilians at Babi Yar.[21][22][23][24] The order to murder the Jews of Kyiv was given to Sonderkommando 4a of Einsatzgruppe C, consisting of SD and SiPo men, the third company of the Special Duties Waffen-SS battalion, and a platoon of the No. 9 police battalion. These units were reinforced by police battalions Nos. 45 and 303, by units of the Ukrainian auxiliary police, and supported by local collaborators.[25] Sonderkommando 4a and the 45th Battalion of the German Order Police conducted the shootings. Servicemen of the 303rd Battalion of the German Order Police at this time guarded the outer perimeter of the execution site.[8][9][10][11]

DJ it is disgusting the Canada parliament applauded an 98 y/o Ukraine former SS-member....

With CoViD cases increasing no doubt "politics" may go for more blame-games and denial...escalate more conflicts...








As predicted, BA.2.86.1 with 455S has received a separate designation: JN.1 βž‘️ Further mutational evolution moving fastπŸ€”

and 

Marc Johnson

@SolidEvidence
·
The BA.2.86.1-derivative with 455S has a designation now: JN.1. Interestingly, the acquisition has already occurred at least twice, meaning the sequences (6 now) are not all of a common origin.   Some knew this a week ago, but I only realized it today.  Can't keep up

...I give up hope....

Trying to make sense my conclusion for now is stupidity is winning ! 

I expect to get my flu and CoViD vaccination this month...Vaccines can NOT stop a pandemic on their own...NoN Pharma actions are needed...but even [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N95_respirator[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N95_respirator "do not work" claims by "the stupid mass"....

Okay...if "stupid" do not want masks AND no vaccination-feel free to do so !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 88487
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2023 at 10:51pm

[url]https://health-study.zoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.zoe.com/data at least trying to make a realistic estimate on CoViD cases/spread in the UK...








Immediately after vaccines came out, doctors claimed they were 100% effective against severe disease and transmission. Was the provaccine? Or pro-the-pandemic-is-over? My latest.

link; [url]https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/overhyping-vaccines-wasnt-pro-vaccine-it-was-pro-stop-worrying-about-covid/[/url] or https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/overhyping-vaccines-wasnt-pro-vaccine-it-was-pro-stop-worrying-about-covid/ ;

These statements were not pro-vaccine. They were pro-stop-worrying-about-COVID.

I fully recognize that this is all written with the benefit of hindsight, but the vaccines did not turn out to be the miracle-cure-all we hoped they would be. According to one article from KFF in November 2022:

The share of COVID-19 deaths among those who are vaccinated has risen. In fall 2021, about 3 in 10 adults dying of COVID-19 were vaccinated or boosted. But by January 2022, as we showed in an analysis posted on the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, about 4 in 10 deaths were vaccinated or boosted. By April 2022, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data show that about 6 in 10 adults dying of COVID-19 were vaccinated or boosted, and that’s remained true through at least August 2022. (Author note:  keep in mind the base rate fallacy. )

Someone who received only the first 2 mRNA vaccine doses in early 2021 might as well be unvaccinated today, and the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, is officially a historical relic, unavailable in the US. Meanwhile, the vaccine’s impact on transmission has fluctuated throughout the pandemic, but it has often been middling at best. Until better vaccines arrive, I will always mask at work.

Assurances the vaccines were “100% effective against protecting against bad outcomes for grandparent” and that they lowered the risk of transmission to “zero” were not pro-vaccine. These were pro-stop-worrying-about-COVID. At the start of 2021, these same doctors also claimed the end of the pandemic was imminent.

DJ...my impression; the "only thing that matters for politics is money"....

If we end up -in whatever country in this world- with "leaders" simply denying major problems than politics is the main problem. 








COVID-19 outbreak at a New York hospital...forced leaders to reinstate a mask mandate. “We have a number of patients who were diagnosed with COVID here... universal masking is the best way to combat its spread”

DJ, Non Pharma Interventions (NPI) may -on the long run- do a better job than -at least present- vaccines....Yes-I will get another CoViD-vaccine this month ! But I have the "luxery" of limiting contacts...even when the price is social isolation....(and that is a very high price since we have been in this global healthcrisis since 2019...We may have detected a global problem in 2020...many countries did find (retrospectively) cases allready in 2019...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-spanish-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-remodels-the-human-host-landscape-of-small-noncoding-rnas-possible-serious-health-complications[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-spanish-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-remodels-the-human-host-landscape-of-small-noncoding-rnas-possible-serious-health-complications 

DJ...testing and reporting on CoViD may have been almost gone...Lots of indications however point to new variants increasing spread and immunity evasion...

The coming months will tell us more on how bad it will be...DJ-My non-expert view; the worst part of the global health crisis is still to come....(As always-hope to be wrong !)

[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/09/obesity-is-linked-to-coronavirus-deaths-dutch-researchers-say/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/09/obesity-is-linked-to-coronavirus-deaths-dutch-researchers-say/ ;

Researchers from SEO Economisch Onderzoek looked at the link between lifestyle and the risk of dying of a coronavirus infection, by linking information about lifestyle to deaths before, during and after the pandemic.

During the first two years of the pandemic, 30,000 more people died than would have been expected according to statistics. The researchers found that between 70% and 100% of them were overweight at the time.

In addition, between 57% and 84% of those who were overweight were smokers or had smoked in the past.

The statistics are notable because only 30% of the population have both those characteristics, SEO said.

DJ, stress is another factor increasing health risks...There are links between stress and obesity..."fat-shaming" is making problems MUCH worse !!!

The basic rule of dealing with other people the way you would like they deal with you can make this planet a better place...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 88487
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2023 at 11:28pm

[url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/doetinchem/corona-maakt-forse-opmars-in-achterhoek-liemers-en-arnhem-testen-vaak-pas-na-paar-dagen-positief~adbd4809/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/doetinchem/corona-maakt-forse-opmars-in-achterhoek-liemers-en-arnhem-testen-vaak-pas-na-paar-dagen-positief~adbd4809/ (in Dutch behind paywall)

DJ-Also in my region CoViD-cases on the rise-testing may give false negatives in early stages...and testing in NL only when serious symptoms show up...

Sweden I checked week 37 for clusters, but the samples of that week are scattered around many different regions and branches. Week 34 (5) and 38 (3) have several samples that are from the same region and that do have the same mutations though.

Josette Schoenmakers also mentioned (in Dutch) NL now has 11 detections of BA.2.86.








Here's the latest variant picture for the United States. The EG.5.* "Eris" variant (41%) has been dominant, and is still growing. An early read on BA.2.86.1 "Pirola" gives it a growth advantage of 15% per day over EG.5.*, which predicts a crossover in a couple of weeks.

Lots of countries-with very limited testing-may see BA.2.86 (and subvariants) taking over from EG.5 variants.








Sato Lab: Virological characteristics correlating with SARS-CoV-2 spike protein fusogenicity "S1/S2 cleavage efficiency and plaque size could be potential indicators  to predict the intrinsic pathogenicity of newly emerged SARS-CoV-2  variants."

-








I am seeing a clear increase in Covid cases in hospitals, and sadly, a few more with the type of lung disease we saw before vaccines. Stay safe. Choose well!

DJ "fuso-genicity" non-expert translation; ability to spread between cells...So increase of fuso-genecity means the infection can spread faster in a host resulting in more severe disease. 








Really , can you not see the irony & ridiculousness of this statement? “The NHS has too few staff to prepare for a pandemic surge...” You’re doing absolutely NOTHING to β¬‡οΈ #COVID spread amongst staff (or patients) so what exactly did you expect? #CovidIsNotOver 1/2

DJ, wich brings me to the "background" since pandemics are NOT isolated events....

-climate change/collapse is increase of pandemic risks...

-decrease of immunity after infection (and limited after vaccination) is increase of pandemic risks...

-CoViD, H5N1 etc. etc. etc. is also widespread in non-human hosts, resulting in new recombinations/variants, of course also this is increase of further pandemic risks...

-Wars, climate collapse resulting in tens-of-millions of people loking for survival...

-"Politics" going ever more crazy...promoting war to keep the west dominating the globe...








Are people sicker than they were a decade ago? Yes, because of 13 years of Tory cuts and a Long Covid crisis which Boris Johnson calls “bollocks” & govt still fails to acknowledge #CPC23
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 88487
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 05 2023 at 11:14pm

[url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/nijmegen/geen-paniek-maar-de-coronacijfers-lopen-op-dit-is-wat-we-kunnen-verwachten-en-kunnen-doen-komende-winter~ae5358e5/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/nijmegen/geen-paniek-maar-de-coronacijfers-lopen-op-dit-is-wat-we-kunnen-verwachten-en-kunnen-doen-komende-winter~ae5358e5/ (in Dutch) also in NL CoViD cases slowly increasing..."no reason for panic"....

Still 1-in-15 in NL will get the flu, risks of catching CoViD will be (much) higher. There is a risk of long CoViD. Here in NL 7,5 million (out of 18 million) can get the new vaccine...if 4 million people will go for vaccination "it would be a success"....If you have CoViD symptoms (that may look like a flu or a cold -at the start) ;

-try to limit contacts

-DIY test..if negative try another test after 48 hours...

Do you want to know which of the new variants have evolved to escape hepa filters and well-fitted respirators?

DJ, both ventilation and masks are "problematic" in NL...








New paper shows the immunity you gain from a COVID-19 infection helps you fight future infections, so you clear the virus faster. We see the same following vaccination. Paper below β¬‡οΈ

DJ...however the risks for long term health issues also increase with each infection...Very likely still a lot of people die from/with CoViD...

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ looking at statistics (unvaccinated) younger age groups still above the long term trend line. 

--------

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/h3n8-avian-flu-virus-has-strong-transmission-potential-risk-major-outbreak[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/h3n8-avian-flu-virus-has-strong-transmission-potential-risk-major-outbreak ;

There have been several cases of human infection with the H3N8 avian influenza virus in China, with one patient succumbing to pneumonia due to the infection in March. A recent study published in the renowned scientific journal Cell revealed that human isolates of the H3N8 virus can be transmitted through the air among ferrets. This is just one step away from breaking the barrier of inter-human transmission; thus, close monitoring is necessary.


-

South Africa: More than 7.5-milllion chickens culled due to avian flu outbreak. At least five-million commercial layers and more than 2.5-million broiler breeders were culled after the birds became infected.  #H7N6

DJ...also H5N1 in animals mixing with H1/H2/H3 (human) flu virus are a growing risk...

Decrease of immunity protection after catching one virus may increase the risk of catching another virus...So-my non-expert view- we could see more "Flu-Rona" co-infections (and maybe not only in humans...) 

[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/10/mps-back-dedicated-clinics-for-long-covid-patients/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/10/mps-back-dedicated-clinics-for-long-covid-patients/ ;

Some 450,000 people are suffering from Long Covid following an infection with the virus, around 90,000 of whom are seriously disabled by the condition.

Effects include extreme tiredness, confusion and loss of concentration. The varied nature of the complaints is such that people are being sent from pillar to post, Drost said.

-

The MP said the clinics would have to be opened across the country so people could have access to them without having to travel long distances. Where the medical specialists or the money to set up the clinics would have to come from, Drost did not specify.

Apart from the clinics, ChristenUnie and GroenLinks-PvdA also want a more generous compensation package for care workers with Long Covid.

Care workers accounted for a high proportion of infections in the first wave of coronavirus in the spring of 2020, when they were exempted from many of the quarantine restrictions so they could keep working on infected wards without proper PPE.

DJ, the sad reality however is -like with ME/CVS (also very likely often post-viral disease) - lots of people here in NL will end up in poverty because of Long CoViD....

--------------

Here in NL already close to 800 farms did see [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluetongue_disease[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluetongue_disease ;

Bluetongue disease is a noncontagiousinsect-borneviral disease of ruminants, mainly sheep and less frequently cattle,[1] yaks,[2] goatsbuffalodeerdromedaries, and antelope. It is caused by Bluetongue virus (BTV). The virus is transmitted by the midges Culicoides imicolaCulicoides variipennis, and other culicoids.

-

Bluetongue has been observed in Australia, the US, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. An outline of the transmission cycle of BTV is illustrated in article Parasitic flies of domestic animals.

Its occurrence is seasonal in the affected Mediterranean countries, subsiding when temperatures drop and hard frosts kill the adult midge vectors.[12] Viral survival and vector longevity is seen during milder winters.[13] A significant contribution to the northward spread of bluetongue disease has been the ability of C. obsoletus and C.pulicaris to acquire and transmit the pathogen, both of which are spread widely throughout Europe. This is in contrast to the original C.imicola vector, which is limited to North Africa and the Mediterranean. The relatively recent novel vector has facilitated a far more rapid spread than the simple expansion of habitats north through global warming.[14]

In August 2006, cases of bluetongue were found in the Netherlands, then Belgium, Germany, and Luxembourg.[15][16] In 2007, the first case of bluetongue in the Czech Republic was detected in one bull near Cheb at the Czech-German border.[17] In September 2007, the UK reported its first ever suspected case of the disease, in a Highland cow on a rare-breeds farm near Ipswich, Suffolk.[18] Since then, the virus has spread from cattle to sheep in Britain.[19] By October 2007, bluetongue had become a serious threat in Scandinavia and Switzerland[20] and the first outbreak in Denmark was reported.[21] In autumn 2008, several cases were reported in the southern Swedish provinces of Småland, Halland, and Skåne,[22] as well as in areas of the Netherlands bordering Germany, prompting veterinary authorities in Germany to intensify controls.[23] Norway had its first finding in February 2009, when cows at two farms in Vest-Agder in the south of Norway showed an immune response to bluetongue.[24] Norway have since been declared free of the disease in 2011.

Although the disease is not a threat to humans, the most vulnerable common domestic ruminants in the UK are cattle, goats, and especially, sheep.


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 88487
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2023 at 2:56am

DJ, We are in a climate crisis and a health crisis at a global scale...the last thing we need is more war...








25% increase week on week in Covid hospital admissions in England - increases seen across all regions except London. The latest wave continues. Note that this is not (yet?) the new variant BA.2.86 ("Pirola") which is a small % of sequenced cases, but mostly Omicron XBB variants.

DJ, The BA.2.86 sub variants may be more immuno evasive...So-lots of indications earlier infection/vaccination may not offer that good of protection...

What does help ? 

-Masks AND

-Good ventilation AND

-limiting social contacts AND

-Good information/communication...

CoViD is much worse than a flu...unclear what % ends up with (live)long CoViD...Post-viral syndrome can be caused by lots of viral infections however CoViD may be a long term problem...

H5N1, 








CDC: Technical Report: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Viruses "This report provides an update to the original report posted on March 17, 2023, to include additional sporadic human cases and activity in wild birds, poultry, and other animals."

link [url]https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2022-2023/h5n1-technical-report_september.htm[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2022-2023/h5n1-technical-report_september.htm ;

Executive summary

A small number of sporadic human cases of A(H5N1) have been identified since 2022, despite the panzootic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) viruses in wild birds and poultry. 

Nearly all reported human cases since 2022 were associated with poultry exposures, and no cases of mammal-to-human or human-to-human transmission of HPAI A(H5N1) virus have been identified. In a few cases, the source of exposure to HPAI A(H5N1) virus was unknown. 

To date, HPAI A(H5N1) viruses currently circulating in birds and poultry, with spillover to mammals, and those that have caused human infections do not have the ability to easily bind to receptors that predominate in the human upper respiratory tract. 

Therefore, the current risk to the public from HPAI A(H5N1) viruses remains low. However, because of the potential for influenza viruses to rapidly evolve and the wide global prevalence of HPAI A(H5N1) viruses in wild birds and poultry outbreaks, continued sporadic human infections are anticipated. 

Continued comprehensive surveillance of these viruses in wild birds, poultry, mammals, and people worldwide, and frequent reassessments are critical to determine the public health risk, along with ongoing preparedness efforts.

DJ, A major risk may be in co-infections in a host of H5N1 and a H1/H2/H3 flu-virus that can become a risk for humans...








Schools were closed for Covid lockdown for only 85 full days. It's ridiculous nonsense to say major societal change or damage to children happened in only 85 days. It's Covid to blame, not lockdown.

DJ, limiting social contacts is limiting health risks...When there is a lot of diseases around it may be a good choice (to limit contacts). To claim there will be no exposure to create immunity would suggest people would be 100% total isolation...Maybe in a space station...but for most of us we will still be confronted with enough diseases to see some immunity resulting from it...

"A fire to heat up a house is welcome-a fire that burns the house is not"....








Many thanks - extremely valuable resource.     - & everyone interested in how we can hope to manage the next wave of Covid - probably this winter - & future as yet unknown pandemics...

DJ, knowing CoViD is NOT !!!! over has to be the basic idea !

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WckUIopdfXI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WckUIopdfXI indie_SAGE

Chapters  02:41 Intro: Prof Sheena Cruickshank 04:54 Situation update: Long Covid, 2 studies 09:45 Stats: Prof Christina Pagel 26:10 Modeling: Overview of the past 3 year: Christina Pagel  41:21 Experience of finding good data: Bob Hawkins - data analyst &simulation modeller  47:00 Modeling uses & limitations: Dr Kit Yates 47:54 What lessons have we learned: Dr Duncan Robertson 51:00 "All models are wrong but some are useful" Kit Yates 54:25 Questions from the public 54:29 What tools/data are out there to inform our individual choices? 56:49 What can the CEV do to keep informed & keep safe? And ZOE? 1:02:30 How many have died of Covid in the UK over the last 12 months and what is expected for the next year? 1:04:45 close Next briefing 2023-10-20 Behaviour

DJ...limited statistics...With so many crises CoViD/health risks may not get the attention that is needed ! 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-covid-19-hospitalizations-rising-in-highly-vaccinated-israel-amidst-worries-that-authorities-are-concealing-true-magnitude-of-current-cr[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-covid-19-hospitalizations-rising-in-highly-vaccinated-israel-amidst-worries-that-authorities-are-concealing-true-magnitude-of-current-cr isis...

DJ, both Ukraine and Israel/Palestine may now face serious health care problems...

[url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/024206.shtml?cone#contents[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/024206.shtml?cone#contents "Lidia" may cross Mexico and end up in the Gulf possibly a danger for Texas...

An earthquake in Herat/Western Afghanistan may have killed over 2,000 people...

Wars, quakes, climate disasters and pandemics are a bad combination !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 88487
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2023 at 10:54pm

DJ, If there is fighting in your street, next door, in your house...do you try to end the fighting or "send weapons"? 

If we keep failing to solve our differences in a peacefull way we soon all could die...STOP WARS ! STOP WEAPONS !

----------








Canada: Up to 10 per cent of Quebec health-care workers affected with long COVID Many affected following POST-Omicron infections.

link [url]https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/up-to-10-per-cent-of-quebec-health-care-workers-affected-with-long-covid-1.6571752[/url] or https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/up-to-10-per-cent-of-quebec-health-care-workers-affected-with-long-covid-1.6571752 DJ, health care itself now is at risk....

We are now much less prepared than we ware in 2019 for any major large scale global health issue...with less money to spent, less medical staff...








UK: Up to 20 new BA.2.86 sequences in one day.

and 









England: Positive tests up 30% to 16,000 in week to 30th September. Hospitalisations up 25% in same period.

DJ, models indicate BA.2.86 may become the dominant variant-with subvariants (BA.2.86.1 etc ?) from the middle of this month...

Post


See new posts

Conversation

DJ

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 88487
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2023 at 11:10pm

technical problem when I copy from twitter....

Malaria may become a growing problem because of climate collapse...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-covid-19-hospitalizations-rising-in-highly-vaccinated-israel-amidst-worries-that-authorities-are-concealing-true-magnitude-of-current-cr[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-covid-19-hospitalizations-rising-in-highly-vaccinated-israel-amidst-worries-that-authorities-are-concealing-true-magnitude-of-current-cr isis

DJ-Wars and healthcrisis -in history- show to be also a bad combination ....








Shocking stats out of Quebec: “The majority of cases of long COVID in health-care workers were detected in those infected with the virus since the emergence of the Omicron variant, who had been vaccinated, and had not required hospitalisation.” WE NEED MASKS IN HEALTHCARE

DJ...if vaccines do no longer offer enough protection we have to know....

However the basic problem is "politics" tend to even deny the pandemic is NOT over....In the UK they use-for a very limited group- old vaccines...Newer vaccines may offer some more protection but -my non expert view- BA.2.86 and some other variants may be able to evade immunity (both after vaccination and previous infection...). 








Terrific summary of the data that we used to have about #Covid, and how little we get now.  By the indefatigable  https://christinapagel.substack.com/p/here-yesterday-gone-today-data-of

and

THREAD: The Covid data (and knowledge) that we used to have... some main points from my substack today diving into all the data we had in 2020 and 2021 and what it meant... TLDR: we knew a lot, but that knowledge didn't necessarily make it into policy 1/8

DJ...is fear a major driver for denial of any crisis ? 

My -very limited, far from perfect, non-expert view;

-The climate crisis is real...science based...and we may be to late to stop a lot of damage...

-Risk for nuclear war grow by the hour....we very likely are unable to even survive a "limited" nuclear war...It may do that much more damage to the climate...increase even further the number of refugees...

-We now face many health crises...CoViD, H5N1 and likely much more....

We should be in a climate emergency but also link the healthcrisis to the climate crisis...but all "we" do is push for more war....

To solve the present problems does need trillions $/€...but thos trillions now are spent on even more weapons...

Are humans self-destructive ? They do act like they are !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 88487
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 11 2023 at 1:16am

DJ, The escalation of the NATO-BRICS wars has me making up my mind...At present we may be much to close to global warfare...








"SARS-CoV-2 is now the only respiratory virus known to directly infect blood vessels.   The study adds to the already large body of evidence that COVID-19 is nothing like 'the flu.' It is far worse"


DJ..still "politics" push for wars...desinvestments in public healthcare...

Study: Low-dose hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in hospitalized Covid-19 patients. "A statistically significant reduction in crude mortality rate at 28 days  was observed in the HCQ-group compared to standard of care."

link [url]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2052297523000914?via%3Dihub[/url] or https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2052297523000914?via%3Dihub 

Abstract

Objectives

In this study we evaluate the efficacy and safety of a treatment protocol with standard dose of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 infection.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis to compare the 28-day mortality rate in 352 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin (HCQ-group) in our hospital with a contemporary control group of 3533 patients receiving standard of care from the Belgian Collaborative Group on COVID-19 Hospital Surveillance.

Results

All patients who received at least one dose of treatment were included in the analysis. A statistically significant reduction in crude mortality rate at 28 days was observed in the HCQ-group compared to standard of care (16.8% vs 25.9%,p = 0.001).

Patients in the treatment group were on average younger (69,7 vs73,1 years, p = 0,0002), were less likely to smoke or to have malignancy and more likely to be male. Patients in the treatment group were more likely to be obese, immunocompromised or to have arterial hypertension, liver disease and lung disease.

After adjustment for these variables the OR for mortality was 0.635 (95%CI 0.464–0.875). Patients who did not receive HCQ had a 57% higher risk of mortality. A survival benefit in the treatment group was consistent across all age groups. 13 patients discontinued treatment due to side effects (4 with QTc-prolongation>60msec (1.1%) and 9 because of gastro-intestinal symptoms (2.55%)). No episodes of ventricular arrhythmia or torsade de pointes were recorded during treatment.

Conclusion

Treatment of COVID-19 using a combination of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin was safe and was associated with a statistically significant mortality benefit in the treatment of COVID-19 infection in hospitalized patients. Our findings do not support the current negative recommendations regarding this treatment.

DJ...the discussion on HCQ is ongoing for years...It would be welcome if it could limit disease severity or deaths...








THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF LONG COVID, a thread πŸ§΅  What would your reaction be if I told you that the economic impact of Long Covid is currently estimated to be £534 BILLION? Yes, that’s BILLION with a B! That figure is about a FIFTH of the UK’s annual GDP!

DJ to "save the economy/profits" "politics" are destroying the economy...

H5N1

Cambodia: 50yr old man dies of H5N1 bird flu infection. It's the second recorded death from H5N1 in Cambodia this year. In February, an 11-year-old child died of H5N1 in Prey Veng province.

 and

Cambodia: Second human H5N1 infection in one week. This case involves a 2-year-old girl from Prey Veng province, who appears to have died. This could be a second bird flu fatality, the first being a 50yr old man, reported in the tweet above.

DJ, most risks of H5N1 could be in mixing with a H1/H2/H3 flu virus...however the massive spread of H5N1 in birds and mammals does increase the risks for mutations in H5N1 itself..

"Bird Flu" is also limiting food production, less eggs and poultry...

Still these risks are ignored...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 88487
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 3:47am

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/10/pnas-frailty-and-survival-in-1918.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/10/pnas-frailty-and-survival-in-1918.html ;

One of the striking features – and enduring mysteries – of the 1918 pandemic was that it appeared to largely spare those over the age of 65 in the United States.

The infamous `W shaped curve of the 1918 pandemic (above) indicates that the death rates among those in their teens, 20s, and 30s was much higher than was normally seen with influenza. Those over 65, however, saw a reduction in mortality during the pandemic.

This unusual Epi curve is most often explained by suggesting a similar `H1N1' virus may have circulated in the mid-to-late 1800s, leaving behind some degree of immunity for those who were alive then, and survived.  Those born later would have no such immunity. 

While there are several flu-like epidemics during this time period in the history books (including the epizootic of 1872), causes of those outbreaks remain unknown.

Another theory, posits that younger people with stronger immune systems fell victim to a `cytokine storm' (see Cytokine Storm Chasers), but once again this is supposition.

-

Our understanding of what happened in 1918 is based largely on anecdotal accounts, and since the average life expectancy in the United States leading up to the pandemic was just over 50 years of age, deaths of those younger likely got greater attention. 

Add in that the world was at war when the pandemic began, and in many countries (including the United States) news of the outbreak was treated as a national security issue. As a result, rumors and misinformation - even from `official' sources - ran rife. 

DJ...very likely a lot of spread of the "Spanish Flu" can be related to soldiers packed close together-exhausted of war...When they returned after the war it did see more spread in young families...But "statistics" sometimes are not much more then numbers-interpretation of them is not always easy...

------------

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/10/cambodian-moh-reports-2nd-fatal-h5n1.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/10/cambodian-moh-reports-2nd-fatal-h5n1.html DJ-H5N1 more a risk for children ? In Cambodia spread linked to infected chicken...

-----------

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/dengue-news-florida-starting-to-see-a-rise-in-dengue-infections-with-32-new-cases-in-week-40[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/dengue-news-florida-starting-to-see-a-rise-in-dengue-infections-with-32-new-cases-in-week-40 climate links...

--------------








UK: Covid deaths reach 50 a day. Steadily rising trend sees the figure for deaths reach the highest level since mid-May. The chart was last updated over a month ago. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

DJ also [url]https://health-study.zoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.zoe.com/data has no recent numbers....

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/  0 to 14 y/o mortality still at pandemic level. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 88487
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2023 at 10:07pm