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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Omicron NOT mild in Norway !!!

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Omicron NOT mild in Norway !!!
    Posted: December 10 2021 at 11:57pm

DJ [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/omicron-in-norway-a-warning-to-the-world/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/omicron-in-norway-a-warning-to-the-world/ while Media-Experts-Politics keep pushing "it is only mild" and "boosters will save us" reality in Norway looks different. ( [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues also indicating Delta is reacting on Omicron...will they "mix" and form a "super variant" as soon as january ?) 

From Norway ;

Omicron in Norway: a warning to the world

Norway’s latest Covid figures show soaring numbers of infections and hospital inpatients, with big increases in both ICU and ventilated patients. Omicron does NOT look like a mild variant in Norway!

The latest Norwegian infection figures show a wave that is already THREE TIMES LARGER than any previous wave in Norway.

 

The positivity rate in Norway now exceeds 20%:

 

Norwegian hospital inpatient numbers look likely to break all records shortly:

 

Intensive care patient numbers are also rising dramatically:

 

And patients on ventilators are increasing too:

 

Deaths are currently lagging other indicators, but we suspect it will not be for long..:

 

Quite why there is so little urgency to deal with the threat of this new variant is completely inexplicable.  This is a NEW PANDEMIC. The old pandemic rules no longer apply. Wake up world.

DJ There is a "prevention paradox". We should have gone for a sort of global lockdown when Omicron showed up....but some virologists went for the story Omicron "may be more cold-like, mild, even welcome"....








A virus that spreads more rapidly, even if milder, could cause much more deaths Hypothetical ex. of 10x less deadly variant (IFR=0.08%) with 2x higher effective transmissibility (green) In 20+ days "Mild & Fast" outpaces Severe & Slow variants in the number of new ppl it kills


Afbeelding


DJ Even the "it is only mild" story was missing the explosive spread point. Healthcare allready overstretched, under staffed...Simply not able to deal with a further increase...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2021 at 12:13am

Worldometers on Norway cases trend +36 % (last week 22,645 cases reported, this week 30,827...Norway population just under 5,5 million. 

Norway deaths +30% !!! Last week 33, this week 43...

[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NOR[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NOR info ends december 2. 

In [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics only 30 to 33 Omicron cases in Norway being reported...

Some Norwegian news; [url]https://norwaytoday.info/news/two-people-in-trondheim-were-informed-that-they-were-infected-with-delta-it-turned-out-to-be-omicron/[/url] or https://norwaytoday.info/news/two-people-in-trondheim-were-informed-that-they-were-infected-with-delta-it-turned-out-to-be-omicron/ 

[url]https://norwaytoday.info/news/new-omicron-case-registered-in-stavanger/[/url] or https://norwaytoday.info/news/new-omicron-case-registered-in-stavanger/ 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Norway[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Norway needs an update (latest november 3) 

[url]https://www.fhi.no/en/news/2021/preliminary-findings-from-outbreak-investigation-after-christmas-party-in-o/[/url] or https://www.fhi.no/en/news/2021/preliminary-findings-from-outbreak-investigation-after-christmas-party-in-o/

Published 


As of 8 December, around 70 % of just over 100 participants at a Christmas party held on 26 November at a restaurant in Oslo have been subsequently diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2. Of those who are infected, 17 are confirmed as being infected with the omicron variant. It is assumed that the majority of cases without sequencing results available at this time are also infected with the same variant. In addition, more than 60 people who visited the restaurant the same evening as the Christmas party have been confirmed as infected with SARS-CoV-2.

  • All except one of those who were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 reported symptoms. Most reported symptom onset three days after the party.
  • Even though most of the cases have not had a severe disease course at this time, almost all developed symptoms relatively quickly after the Christmas party. The attendees were young and fully vaccinated and would not typically develop serious illness after SARS-CoV-2 infection. It is therefore difficult to comment on the severity of the disease with this variant based on these preliminary results.

DJ The Norwegian Institute of Public Health did not spread the news "Omicron after Oslo christmas party was only mild"...other media made up that fake-news...

Deaths statistics from Africa differ. SA has good reporting, Zimbabwe has lesser info still deaths-low numbers-going up. It may be unclear if Norway deaths going up is Delta or Omicron...most likely allready a mix. 

Lots of cases detected Omicron did show up in people also having booster vaccine...simply does not look very good at all !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2021 at 12:14am

Thanks for that information.   The model that you posted as the last graph (of first post) is scary, and may indicate a new phase of what is about to happen.


Norway has roughly the same size population as Finland, and up to now Norway has had slightly lower rates (ie doing better).

However, Finland's latest rate for ICU is only 54, only half of the figures you are showing for Norway.  This does look serious (at least for the sub-variety that is hitting here in the north.


Link in Swedish showing latest Dashboard (the English version dashboard does not give ICU data)  https://svenska.yle.fi/coronavirus



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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2021 at 2:17am

EdwinSm, your reaction gives me two idea's;

-Could Norway be seeing a "local problem" maybe some mix of Omicron and Delta ? 

-How are other [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_countries[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_countries doing ? 

The Nordic countries (also known as the Nordics or Nordenlit. 'the North')[2] are a geographical and cultural region in Northern Europe and the North Atlantic. It includes the sovereign states of DenmarkFinlandIcelandNorway and Sweden as well as the autonomous territories of the Faroe Islands and Greenland, and the autonomous region of the Åland Islands.[3]

A look at worldometers ;

Sweden - population 10,2 million trends for cases +11%, deaths -65% Omicron 16

Denmark -pop. 5,8 million, cases +33%, deaths -10% Omicron 1,280

Finland-pop. 5,5 million, cases +10%, deaths +20% Omicron 9

Norway-pop. 5,5 million, cases +36%, deaths +30% Omicron 33

Iceland-pop. 344.000, cases -7% no deaths last weeks...Omicron 12

Greenland-pop 57,000, cases -23% no deaths

Faeroe Islands-pop. 49,000, cases +23%...also no recent deaths

Maybe even look at Baltic Three

Estonia pop. 1,3 million, cases -12%, deaths +29% Omicron 12

Latvia pop. 1,9 million, cases -11%, deaths -17% Omicron 2

Lithuania pop. 2,7 million, cases -2%, deaths -19%

DJ No clear regional picture...cases going up +10% in "Scandinavia"  (Denmark, Norway, Sweden)+ Finland my view...Norway may be a bit further in Omicron spread. Denmark doing much more sequencing...

The "Norway" story may be an indicator for other countries- just a matter of time...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2021 at 11:11am

SA relatively young population many already been exposed multiple times to virus.

Have heard a few virologist say one of the clusters of  mutations in S protein gives it very high affinity closer to that seen in  MERS than SARS  and could indicate severity has increased.  

Dr Kim interview (worldwide vaccine expert) is very telling.

He calls the mutations disturbing and although he doesnt know the impact it has on biology yet...he says some of the new mutations  are suggestive of a more severe disease.  He talks about "mild "being based on bias...I.e. SA population young and previous infected.


Time stamp around 27:00


Watch "Leading Vaccine Expert Explains Impact Of Omicron Variant On COVID Vaccine | Stay Curious" on YouTube

https://youtu.be/pJHINoHFzbY

I am still hopeful for mild.


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