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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Omicron RO 6.3 !?

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    Posted: December 04 2021 at 4:52am


South African Medical Association source, Omicron RO believed to be 6.3

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2021 at 5:59am

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Epidemiology,_transmissibility[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Epidemiology,_transmissibility ;

Epidemiology, transmissibility

On 26 November 2021, the South African National Institute for Communicable Diseases announced that 30,904 COVID-tests (in one day) detected 2,828 new COVID infections (positive rate 9.2 %).[44]

On 3 December 2021, exactly one week later, the NICD announced that 65,990 COVID tests had found 16,055 new infections (5.7 times as many / + 470 % as seven days before; positive rate 24.3 %) and that 72 percent of them were found in Gauteng.[45][46] This province of South Africa is densely populated (about 850 inhabitants per km²). Gautengs capital Johannesburg is a megacitiy (about 5.5 million inhabitants in the city itself plus 9.5 million in the urban region).

In November 2021 the transmissibility of the Omicron variant, as compared to the Delta variant or other variants of the COVID-19 virus, was still uncertain.[47] The virus is likely to be strongly dependent on reinfections.[48][49]

It has been estimated the Omicron variant diverged in late September or early October 2021.[50]

Sequencing data suggests that Omicron had became the dominant variant in South Africa by November 2021, the same month where it had been first detected in the country.[51][52]

"Phylogeny suggests a recent emergence. Data from South Africa suggests that Omicron has a pronounced growth advantage there. However, this may be due to transmissibility or immune escape related, or both."[53]

In the UK, a exponential growth rate of the Omicron associated S-gene target failure (SGTF) cases of 141% per week (a.k.a. a factor of exp(1.41) ~ 4.1 exponential growth per week) was detected. The model was logistic, in comparison to the other currently prevalent variants. The quality of the data is hampered by background SGTF cases from Delta.[54]

SGTF data from South Africa indicates a similar growth of 21% per day relative to delta, generating an increased reproduction number by a factor of 2.4 (for a ~ 100%*loge(2.4)/21% ~ 4.2 days presumed identical typical generational interval).[55][56]

Changes in detectable levels of COVID-19 in wastewater samples from South Africa's Gauteng province were seen as early as 1–7 November (week 44).[57] The National Institute for Communicable Diseases reports that kids under the age of 2 make up 10% of total hospital admissions in the Omicron epicentre Tshwane in South Africa.[58]

DJ Wiki itself may not be "science" it (often) is based on science...all indications are Omicron is "bad"....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2021 at 7:25am

Interesting references. Wuhan early out break believed to be between Ro2 - Ro3

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2021 at 8:55am

R0 of Spanish Influenza was estimated at between 1.4-2.8.  R0 of seasonal flu is usually around 1.2.  Measles is around 15, just to provide some reference points.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2021 at 12:44pm

Originally posted by Pandemic Pandemic wrote:


South African Medical Association source, Omicron RO believed to be 6.3

Wow, that's high. 


"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2021 at 12:49pm

Originally posted by ViQueen24 ViQueen24 wrote:

R0 of Spanish Influenza was estimated at between 1.4-2.8.  R0 of seasonal flu is usually around 1.2.  Measles is around 15, just to provide some reference points.

Good info. I heard a doctor on the radio at the start of Covid explain what an RO was, and she said to give you an example. If you put 14 people in a room and sent in a person with flu for 15 minutes, between 1 and 2 people will catch the flu. But if you send in a person with measles for 15 minutes, then everyone in the room will catch it. It's that quick. 

Over here there was CCTV footage of 2 women in Australia, one of whom was the first person with Delta there, and the second woman was someone who caught it from her. The women had never met and authorities were at a loss as to how one passed it to another. The only place of contact was a shopping centre and they found both women on the camera footage, and the point of infection had been them walking passed each other in the mall. That was it. For a few seconds, walking in opposite directions, 2m apart. Incredible. And that was just for delta, which has a lower RO.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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