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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Omicron , unstoppable......

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Omicron , unstoppable......
    Posted: December 16 2021 at 4:14pm
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 16 2021 at 4:33pm

I think we should revisit allowing cussing on this forum. Because omg what a cluster**** we are in.

Thanks for posting this, I'm just about to post a ton of articles on my facebook page with the request that people just read the headlines. This one is PERFECT to be the preview image they see.

By perfect I mean if I have to mainline valium, they should all have to do it too.  (sigh) 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 16 2021 at 8:15pm

Here's a reality check although it's not based on Omnicron. That specific variant IFR may well be even lower. 

This data indicates that your chances of dying from COVID if you are infected with it, in the following age groups is:

0-19 = 0.0027%
20-29 = 0.014%
30-39 = 0.031%
40-49 = 0.082%
50-59 = 0.27%
60-69 = 0.59%
70+ = 2.4%

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.08.21260210v1

"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 16 2021 at 11:02pm

DJ-May I friendly but totally disagree with the suggestion that Omicron would be unstoppable...

Every virus needs to spread to new hosts so limiting contacts is stopping Omicron !!! Lockdown NOW !!!

Also airtravel is still spreading all kind of sub-variants around the globe...why ????

The idea was governments would care for public health...instead they keep offering virusses free travel ! 

Omicron can be stopped ! "We" are just not doing it !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nzdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2021 at 12:25am

Bloomberg.com are just now reporting fact based news from south africa.

Hospital covid rates have dropped 91 percent due to omicron.


Relax. Enough with the hysteria, please.

Edit....have just checked the article again. Hospital admissions are now 1.7 percent, so drop is larger than 91 percent.


 

prepare for the worst,hope for the best.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2021 at 2:01am
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2021 at 2:04am
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2021 at 2:16am

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/omicron-drives-covid-wave-spreading-south-africa-81794904

“This virus is spreading quicker than in previous waves, but the rates of hospitalizations and deaths remain relatively low,” the department of health said in a statement Thursday. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2021 at 2:19am

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-seeing-slight-increase-covid-19-deaths-off-low-base-2021-12-17/

"Starting to see a slight increase in deaths nationally, but once again this level is very much lower even than the baseline period we were seeing between the second and third waves," Groome said. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2021 at 2:49am

I can't get my head around all the mixed messages out there,

I don't think anyone knows the full story,

UK scientist say it will be after Christmas before we know anything positive.....

Take care all 😷😉💉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Littlesmile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2021 at 3:20am

BMA Northern Ireland chairman Dr Tom Black has said on radio this morning

 'by pass what the politicians say and go into lockdown now. Treat it like you have been told to lockdown.'

He said that Northern Ireland needs to look to London. He said that with how fast Omicron is that Northern Ireland couldn't even handle a 1% rise in hospital cases with this strain.


Maybe that is hysteria? Or maybe in some places this could go badly.



:-)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2021 at 3:32am

It's going to be a few weeks or months before experts get a true picture.

New York’s omicron situation is changing by the hour

What happens during the collision of two variants when the public’s reserve of trust and patience has been exhausted?
Photo via @bopinion

The change of expert opinion was sudden.

Researchers at Harvard Medical School now say the omicron variant, not delta, is likely fueling the current surge in Covid-19 cases in the northeastern U.S.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2021 at 5:11am

Thats what I keep asking ,

What happens when two mutations collide???????.....

Getting interesting.....

Take care all 😷😉💉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2021 at 8:18am

Imperial College study finds Omicron could be just as severe as Delta

Oliver Barnes and John Burn-Murdoch in London

The Omicron coronavirus variant could be just as severe as the Delta strain, according to early findings from researchers at Imperial College London, in a study which also highlighted the elevated risk of reinfection posed by the new variant and the need for booster shots to combat it.

“The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection,” said the research team, led by Professor Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease modeller and government science adviser.

However, they cautioned that hospitalisation data “remains very limited at this time”. The study said data suggested “at most limited changes in severity compared with Delta”.

The early findings could dash the hopes of some experts that a change in the virulence of the new variant would ease the pressure on health systems despite Omicron’s high levels of infectiousness.

Professor Azra Ghani, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London and one of the study’s authors, stressed the “uncertainty” surrounding whether or not Omicron is less severe than previous strains.

“Whilst it may take several weeks to fully understand this, governments will need to put in place plans now to mitigate any potential impact,” she said, adding that the results demonstrated “the importance of delivering booster doses as part of the wider public health response”.

https://www.ft.com/content/48931667-cbb5-481d-acef-b2263bb74f80#post-9edf18ad-fb67-4ea1-b59e-11aa65d4060e

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 18 2021 at 5:06am

South Africa Hospitalization Rate Plunges in Omicron Wave

Antony Sguazzin

December 17, 2021, 9:50 AM EST

 

South Africa delivered some positive news on the omicron coronavirus variant on Friday, reporting a much lower rate of hospital admissions and signs that the wave of infections may be peaking.

 

Only 1.7% of identified Covid-19 cases were admitted to hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth wave, compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a press conference. 

 

Health officials presented evidence that the strain may be milder, and that infections may already be peaking in the country’s most populous province, Gauteng.

 

Still, new cases in that week of the current wave were more than 20,000 a day, compared with 4,400 in the same week of the third wave. That’s further evidence of omicron’s rapid transmissibility, which a number of other countries, such as the U.K. are also now experiencing. 

 

South Africa, which announced the discovery of the variant on Nov. 25, is being watched as a harbinger of what may happen with omicron elsewhere.

 

Scientists have cautioned that other nations may have a different experience to South Africa as the country’s population is young compared with developed nations. Between 70% and 80% of citizens may also have had a prior Covid-19 infection, according to antibody surveys, meaning they could have some level of protection.

 

Currently there are about 7,600 people with Covid-19 in South African hospitals, about 40% of the peak in the second and third waves. Excess deaths, a measure of the number of deaths against a historical average, are just below 2,000 a week, an eighth of their previous peak.

 

“We are really seeing very small increases in the number of deaths,” said Michelle Groome, head of health surveillance for the country’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases. 

 

More than 90% of hospital deaths were among the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated, News24 reported, citing Waasila Jassat, a researcher with the NICD.

 

The number of Covid-19 hospitalizations in this wave is also being inflated by the fact that milder patients are being admitted because there is room to accommodate them. Many are there for other complaints but are routinely tested, according to health officials.

 

“We have seen a decrease in a proportion of people who need to be on oxygen,” Jassat said at the press conference. “They are at very low levels.”

There was also further evidence that the crest of infections may have already passed in Tshwane, the municipal area in Gauteng that includes the capital Pretoria.
 

A wastewater analysis carried out by the South African Medical Research Council for the week ended Dec. 10 showed a declining proportion of viral particles for two successive weeks at the plant that treats water draining from central Pretoria.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 18 2021 at 12:36pm

We all hope to that 


"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 18 2021 at 2:23pm


Yes we all hope that the New Year brings better news ...

Take care all 😷😉💉


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2021 at 10:06am

I think actions speak louder than words so if you look at the actions countries are taking with their "inside" information on this new wave, we should be worried.  Not trying to fear monger or anything but just saying actions speak louder than words!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2021 at 1:53pm

I'm not sure we have to assume "inside information".  The math seems to be working out badly for our healthcare systems.  The following is neither a guestimate nor hard actual numbers, but it stands to reason if, say, Omicron is 5X  more infectious than Delta, but you have 50% fewer hospitalizations with Omicron, it still means more people entering and overloading hospitals with Omicron than with Delta.  

This is what's setting hair on fire.    

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2021 at 5:51am

I agree witch that the numbers speak for themselves.....however, I also think for everything we hear about, there is something we do NOT hear about.  So I wonder what things we don't know.  And there could be a lot because no one wants to panic anyone.  So we shall see how this plays out!

NOW is the Season to Know

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2021 at 11:47am

There are three things that people need to be aware of: 

1. the known knowns

2. the known unknowns

and 3. the unknown unknowns

and it the last catagory that we should worry most about.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2021 at 12:45pm

Kiwi - that is friggin hilarious!  and so very true!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2021 at 4:15pm

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

There are three things that people need to be aware of: 

1. the known knowns

2. the known unknowns

and 3. the unknown unknowns

and it the last catagory that we should worry most about.

Rumy was the best love that qoute.


"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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